Search found 3087 matches

by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 26, 2018 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2048

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

Does anyone else notice the similarities in the depressions of 1833 and 1929? Both followed a period of widespread warfare by 10-15 years and I'm assuming great governmental expense and general inflation. I wonder if there is some sort of CPI for 1789-1933? Charts below show annual inflation in the...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 25, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The volatility explosion of 1933?
Replies: 32
Views: 2048

Re: The volatility explosion of 1933?

^^ Another interesting aspect of the linked paper is how shaky the belief was internationally in the survival of capitalism as an economic system. It was certainly not a sure thing in the 1920s and 30s that capitalism would subsequently go on to dominate the major world economies. From the paper (my...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 25, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Treasury Bills Provided Inflation Protection?
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Re: Have Short-term Bonds Provided Inflation Protection?

At the risk of being thought pedantic short term bonds are normally 1 to 5 years maturity. And bonds are coupon paying instruments. What you have here are 90 day T Bills? Yes, as was made clear in the OP post and chart, this discussion is about "fixed-income securities comparable to 3-month Treasur...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 25, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Treasury Bills Provided Inflation Protection?
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Re: Have Short-term Bonds Provided Inflation Protection?

What if one held an allocation to short-term bonds (i.e., 3-month Treasury bills) for 30 years? Alas, even time has not historically been a panacea for inflation-adjusted short bond returns (chart below). From about 1950 to 1980, an allocation to short-term bonds in developed markets — even when hel...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 25, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Have Treasury Bills Provided Inflation Protection?
Replies: 6
Views: 619

Have Treasury Bills Provided Inflation Protection?

There's been several recent Forum discussions debating the effectiveness of short-term bonds (say 3-month Treasury bills) as protection against inflation spikes. This post looks at the historical, inflation-adjusted returns of short-term bonds from 7 developed countries over the 147-year period from...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 24, 2018 6:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Curious if any of you have considered what happens if (when??) the US Dollar is no longer the currency in which the majority of the world's oil trade is done, or, indeed, is no longer the world's reserve currency. Just to make the point that world reserve currency is not necessarily a winner-take-a...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 24, 2018 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

However, my point is we shouldn't sweat over it or take any extra/unnecessary steps in hedging against this risk since inflation is the name of the game under the current system. Having a healthy 6-18m cash EF in high-yield and AA in VBTLX already does the trick and both are good money habit in gen...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1416

Re: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?

So much for what the market expects about inflation or anything else over a long time period. A point worth emphasizing. If one compares actual inflation rates with forecasted inflation rates in history, it's fairly clear that most changes to inflation are actually unexpected (chart below). https:/...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

I think you underestimate deflation risk. Big asset-debt bubble busts are associated with deflationary periods. No matter what Central Banks do. Agree. Although the probability of deflationary shocks is much reduced in the modern era, the consequences for stock investors have historically been rath...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 23, 2018 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Daily S&P 500 (or other index) prices
Replies: 3
Views: 325

Re: Historical Daily S&P 500 (or other index) prices

I'm looking for DAILY index values for the S&P 500 or, failing that, another large cap US stock index with data BEFORE 1950. Perhaps not what you're looking for, but one source of historical U.S. daily stock prices back to 1896 is the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The daily data is available for do...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

My conclusion to the charts is that deflation risk is much lower than it used to be. Right, I believe this is a direct result of the inflation-targeting adopted by many countries around the world in recent decades. The bargain has been to reduce the risk of serious deflation in exchange for mild, s...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 23, 2018 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

I think "inflation risk" is the wrong way to describe it. I look at the data and see "inflation certainty". Yes, inflation certainty is a better way to look at it. Our portfolios are now best designed to counter persistent steady inflation, I believe, and not so much the wide swings of inflation/de...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Assuming inflation has become more highly correlated globally and less volatile, it follows that Central Bank policy across developed markets would also become more highly correlated and less volatile. If that’s true, then non-US interest rates will start moving higher relatively soon. Interesting ...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 22, 2018 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3357

Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Why should investors care about inflation over the past 200 years? Two reasons come to mind. First, regarding the permanent loss of our capital, inflation is the most likely of deep risks to impact our portfolios (see William Bernstein, Deep Risk ) — so "know thine enemy." Second, inflation has not ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 20, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5885

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

Not many people know that all the markets in the US closed for a period during WW I. We were very lucky to recover so quickly from 9/11. Not totally unrelated events, from what I understand. The primary reason that all the stock markets in the U.S. were closed for months during 1914 was to keep to ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5885

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

Besides the historical differences in 30-year portfolio returns between the U.S and the U.K. over the last two centuries, one other interesting aspect in researching this topic was the gradual decline in the strength of the British pound relative to the U.S. dollar over the study period (chart below...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 20, 2018 8:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5885

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

It was interesting to learn as well that the New York Stock Exchange also closed its doors from July to December 1914 (photo below) — along with every other regional exchange in the U.S. and most major bourses around the world. https://i.imgur.com/ddipBmm.jpg Source: Business Insider A key vulnerabi...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5885

Re: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

Just to add a small window into financial history: Such was the scale of the global financial crisis in 1914 that many stock markets around the world, including the all-powerful London Stock Exchange, were forced to close and remained so for months. The U.K. government had to provide undreamt-of lev...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 20, 2018 3:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?
Replies: 57
Views: 5885

Does "Time in the Market" Heal All Portfolio Wounds?

In a recent thread , which summarized various U.S. portfolio disasters over the last century, the suggestion was made that "time in the market" was the best hedge against portfolio disasters. In other words, if investors can just have the fortitude to ride out the storm, and the patience to hold on ...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5780

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

I am not suggesting that we view HY bonds as "safe" the way we would view treasury bonds. I am simply asking why not add some HY bonds in one's RISK portfolio as a diversifier? Thanks, now I understand your point. In that case, wouldn't high-yield bonds be viewed as sort of "equity light"? If the p...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 19, 2018 8:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?
Replies: 78
Views: 5780

Re: Why Take Risk on Equity Side?

Why then should one take their risk on the equity side? Why not also hold some high-yield bonds? I noticed also that the correlation with US stocks has been 0.58, which is not too high - so may be a decent diversifier. As a conservative investor, the greatest drawback of high yield bonds in my view...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: [A Splendid Exchange, by William Bernstein - on sale for Kindle]
Replies: 19
Views: 2105

Re: Splendid Exchange Kindle Sale

Just to add a recommendation for A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World . Though not directly related to investing and portfolio construction today, it's a very accessible history of the fundamental arguments advanced by both the defenders of free trade and its protectionist detractors. One...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1318

Re: Flat real yield curve

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall. My understanding is that real interest rates today are largely determined in a global market context, since capital markets are so highly integrated worldwide. At the same time, since exchange rates are still free to vary among major economie...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 114
Views: 7413

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What I would ideally like to do is repeat my original analysis with the longer dataset. (snip) The longer dataset certainly has valuable information. What my analysis contributes is a distribution of results. :thumbsup I would think such an analysis would be a valuable contribution to better unders...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 114
Views: 7413

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

As you probably know, the shape of that graph will look different depending on which period you are looking at. Right — but since we don't know the future, wouldn't it be preferable to make portfolio allocation decisions based on what has worked the best on average over ALL the past periods for whi...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 114
Views: 7413

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Common wisdom is that Intermediate Term (IT) treasuries are better for diversifying stocks than Short Term (ST) treasuries. And the long-term history of portfolio risk/returns has confirmed the common wisdom. Years ago, William Bernstein looked at this question in a book and blog article (summarize...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Maybe post the data in an excel spreadsheet? Good suggestion! An Excel spreadsheet with the complete data set can be downloaded here: U.S. Monthly Stock and Bond Returns, 1871-2016 The original monthly U.S. stock returns and inflation data are from Shiller , while the original 10-year Treasury mont...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehensible. I'm puzzled by the reasoning behind the averaging, if what you're focusing on is the effect of disasters. Compound returns are what really matter. Average returns can differ significant...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

My impression is the focus of all three posts seems to be for retirees who are in the wealth preservation stage. Am I wrong about that? If that is in fact correct, would there be any potential implications for those of us still in the accumulation stage? All three of the "portfolio disaster" posts ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Todd, I don’t understand the graph. What is the y axis? Are portfolio rebalanced on a specific schedule? The Y-axis is monthly portfolio returns (inflation-adjusted with dividends reinvested). In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehe...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

I still believe the best hedge is just time. If you have the ability to weather the storm it seems reasonable to just do NOTHING and if you have a high equity allocation just ride out the storm. For stock-heavy portfolios, I believe you're right. If one breaks down the 144 years of data we have sin...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2708

Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

This post briefly summarizes the essential points from two recent threads on U.S. stock and bond disasters over the past century. For this discussion, we focus on an 80/20 stock-heavy portfolio, a middle ground 50/50 mix, and a bond-heavy 20/80 portfolio. First, their relative real performances over...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Would it not be fair to say that 100% TIPS would be the optimal portfolio for capital preservation (in terms of real money); whereas, wouldn't a 50/50 portfolio also provide the possibility for capital growth (real growth) while still giving you the insurance you need against such extreme events? Y...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Perhaps a third one in the series could examine the worst case disasters of a 50/50 stock/bond mix. It's not that a 50/50 portfolio has historically avoided any of the U.S. stock or bond disasters (chart below) — it's just that the magnitude of the losses are of course less, on average, during both...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1044

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

...but if you really wanted to try again with monthly Treasury data you can look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LBRAy1SCCAr8YkjJqGNrTpyNnDIOGmeowTXrn9vdXXs/edit#gid=2025919577 Under the "Monthly raw data" tab and use the "Barclays 1 5" column. That's the total return data from the Bloom...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1044

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

Why is this hypothetical investor switching to 30/70 as soon as the yield curve inverts? He is jumping the gun: yield curve inversion has always preceded recession by at least 6 months, and sometimes as long as 24 months. These were the parameters specified by the Forum member in his research reque...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1044

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

One factor you could look at is the duration of the bonds you switch to such as intermediate term treasuries. Possibly. Unfortunately, I don't have monthly total return data (price change plus yield) for, say, 5-year Treasuries. Also, I'm not entirely convinced it would make a great deal of differe...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 1044

Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

Two weeks ago, a Forum member asked for some historical research to test his intriguing question: In the past, has an investor with a 70/30 portfolio as their standard asset allocation, who for an 18 month duration shifts their portfolio to 30/70 whenever the yield curve inverts, ended up with a bet...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 64
Views: 8988

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

But if one is investing for the future, say the next 30-50 years, it might pay to notice where it is in the world today that entrepreneurial dynamism is greatest. The haystack is only growing larger beyond the shores of the United States. I'm curious if the average size of company in the USA has gr...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 64
Views: 8988

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

^^ Just to add: Not only has the number of listed companies outside the U.S. exploded since the 1970s, but the number of "investable" companies in the MSCI global indexes has been growing to keep pace (table below): https://i.imgur.com/14lUAur.jpg Source: MSCI Looking ahead at the next 30-50 years, ...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 64
Views: 8988

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

To my mind, the dissection of past returns in this case has only limited information value about possible futures. About all we can say is that international and domestic stocks behaved differently in the past. Future returns are unknown. Instead of the "past returns" argument, I'd like to highlight...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 1118

Re: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates

Does a money market account like the vanguard prime VMMXX do a good job of keeping up with inflation? We have data going back to 1934 on 3-month Treasury bills, which are a fairly good proxy for money market fund returns. The chart below shows monthly T-bill rates adjusted for inflation. https://i....
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 64
Views: 8988

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Appreciate the good graphical presentation, thanks. Some will always quibble with the choice of start/end dates, but decades are about as defensible and unbiased a choice as any, in my view. An example of the power and effectiveness of simple data visualizations to perhaps break down preconceived id...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I quickly cobbled together a somewhat similar analysis for the UK, using inflation-adjusted annual returns. Very nice, siamond. What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations t...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Though I'm a big proponent of TIPS, especially in bond-heavy portfolios, it needs to be said that they're not entirely a risk-free asset. At the longer maturities, they still have considerable interest rates risk — i.e., to changes in real rates (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/XQMHkvI.jpg Source:...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Do TIPS not add value to a 70/30 split in that situation? Right, but with only a 30% bond allocation, there's a limit to how much portfolio insurance one can achieve by adding TIPS. Nothing wrong with adding TIPS (say up to half of bonds), but their impact on the overall portfolio will be limited. ...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

"Bonds are for safety" should be removed from the Bogleheads vocabulary. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs Lumping TIPS in with nominal bond disasters due to inflation crises is an error. Have to agree with triceratop here. Certainly high-quality nominal bonds have their place in stock-heavy portf...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

One note is that ther was a Federally imposed interest rate cap in the 1940s that deliberately was under inflation. It’s not how bills would have performed without that cap. It’s certainly a risk, but is a confiscatory risk rather than an inherently inflationary one. Good point, one that I'd forgot...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I don't know what data sources you have available, but rerunning this with T-Bills and/or cash would be helpful, I think (particularly since those have, AFAIK, weathered inflation better). Plotting the monthly real returns of 3-month Treasury bills (in green below) compared with the real total retu...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9368

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

What is your definition of safe? There could be several definitions, but in the context of this thread, it's assumed that investors with bond-heavy portfolios (60%-100% bonds) are more concerned with capital preservation than the long-term growth of their assets — and capital preservation means rea...