Search found 3066 matches

by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 18, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Splendid Exchange Kindle Sale
Replies: 4
Views: 444

Re: Splendid Exchange Kindle Sale

Just to add a recommendation for A Splendid Exchange: How Trade Shaped the World . Though not directly related to investing and portfolio construction today, it's a very accessible history of the fundamental arguments advanced by both the defenders of free trade and its protectionist detractors. One...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Flat real yield curve
Replies: 7
Views: 1202

Re: Flat real yield curve

I guess the market very much expects real rates to fall. My understanding is that real interest rates today are largely determined in a global market context, since capital markets are so highly integrated worldwide. At the same time, since exchange rates are still free to vary among major economie...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 15, 2018 12:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 89
Views: 4755

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

What I would ideally like to do is repeat my original analysis with the longer dataset. (snip) The longer dataset certainly has valuable information. What my analysis contributes is a distribution of results. :thumbsup I would think such an analysis would be a valuable contribution to better unders...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 89
Views: 4755

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

As you probably know, the shape of that graph will look different depending on which period you are looking at. Right — but since we don't know the future, wouldn't it be preferable to make portfolio allocation decisions based on what has worked the best on average over ALL the past periods for whi...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In defense of short-term treasuries
Replies: 89
Views: 4755

Re: In defense of short-term treasuries

Common wisdom is that Intermediate Term (IT) treasuries are better for diversifying stocks than Short Term (ST) treasuries. And the long-term history of portfolio risk/returns has confirmed the common wisdom. Years ago, William Bernstein looked at this question in a book and blog article (summarize...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Maybe post the data in an excel spreadsheet? Good suggestion! An Excel spreadsheet with the complete data set can be downloaded here: U.S. Monthly Stock and Bond Returns, 1871-2016 The original monthly U.S. stock returns and inflation data are from Shiller , while the original 10-year Treasury mont...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehensible. I'm puzzled by the reasoning behind the averaging, if what you're focusing on is the effect of disasters. Compound returns are what really matter. Average returns can differ significant...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

My impression is the focus of all three posts seems to be for retirees who are in the wealth preservation stage. Am I wrong about that? If that is in fact correct, would there be any potential implications for those of us still in the accumulation stage? All three of the "portfolio disaster" posts ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 14, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

Todd, I don’t understand the graph. What is the y axis? Are portfolio rebalanced on a specific schedule? The Y-axis is monthly portfolio returns (inflation-adjusted with dividends reinvested). In the chart, these monthly returns are 36-month rolling averages, to smooth the data and make it comprehe...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Re: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

I still believe the best hedge is just time. If you have the ability to weather the storm it seems reasonable to just do NOTHING and if you have a high equity allocation just ride out the storm. For stock-heavy portfolios, I believe you're right. If one breaks down the 144 years of data we have sin...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up
Replies: 32
Views: 2384

Historical U.S. Portfolio Disasters — Wrapping It All Up

This post briefly summarizes the essential points from two recent threads on U.S. stock and bond disasters over the past century. For this discussion, we focus on an 80/20 stock-heavy portfolio, a middle ground 50/50 mix, and a bond-heavy 20/80 portfolio. First, their relative real performances over...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 11:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Would it not be fair to say that 100% TIPS would be the optimal portfolio for capital preservation (in terms of real money); whereas, wouldn't a 50/50 portfolio also provide the possibility for capital growth (real growth) while still giving you the insurance you need against such extreme events? Y...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Perhaps a third one in the series could examine the worst case disasters of a 50/50 stock/bond mix. It's not that a 50/50 portfolio has historically avoided any of the U.S. stock or bond disasters (chart below) — it's just that the magnitude of the losses are of course less, on average, during both...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 928

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

...but if you really wanted to try again with monthly Treasury data you can look at https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LBRAy1SCCAr8YkjJqGNrTpyNnDIOGmeowTXrn9vdXXs/edit#gid=2025919577 Under the "Monthly raw data" tab and use the "Barclays 1 5" column. That's the total return data from the Bloom...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 928

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

Why is this hypothetical investor switching to 30/70 as soon as the yield curve inverts? He is jumping the gun: yield curve inversion has always preceded recession by at least 6 months, and sometimes as long as 24 months. These were the parameters specified by the Forum member in his research reque...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 928

Re: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit to Market Timing?

One factor you could look at is the duration of the bonds you switch to such as intermediate term treasuries. Possibly. Unfortunately, I don't have monthly total return data (price change plus yield) for, say, 5-year Treasuries. Also, I'm not entirely convinced it would make a great deal of differe...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?
Replies: 16
Views: 928

Yield Curve Inversions — Any Benefit from Market Timing?

Two weeks ago, a Forum member asked for some historical research to test his intriguing question: In the past, has an investor with a 70/30 portfolio as their standard asset allocation, who for an 18 month duration shifts their portfolio to 30/70 whenever the yield curve inverts, ended up with a bet...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7370

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

But if one is investing for the future, say the next 30-50 years, it might pay to notice where it is in the world today that entrepreneurial dynamism is greatest. The haystack is only growing larger beyond the shores of the United States. I'm curious if the average size of company in the USA has gr...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7370

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

^^ Just to add: Not only has the number of listed companies outside the U.S. exploded since the 1970s, but the number of "investable" companies in the MSCI global indexes has been growing to keep pace (table below): https://i.imgur.com/14lUAur.jpg Source: MSCI Looking ahead at the next 30-50 years, ...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 10:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7370

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

To my mind, the dissection of past returns in this case has only limited information value about possible futures. About all we can say is that international and domestic stocks behaved differently in the past. Future returns are unknown. Instead of the "past returns" argument, I'd like to highlight...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 932

Re: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates

Does a money market account like the vanguard prime VMMXX do a good job of keeping up with inflation? We have data going back to 1934 on 3-month Treasury bills, which are a fairly good proxy for money market fund returns. The chart below shows monthly T-bill rates adjusted for inflation. https://i....
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 62
Views: 7370

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Appreciate the good graphical presentation, thanks. Some will always quibble with the choice of start/end dates, but decades are about as defensible and unbiased a choice as any, in my view. An example of the power and effectiveness of simple data visualizations to perhaps break down preconceived id...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I quickly cobbled together a somewhat similar analysis for the UK, using inflation-adjusted annual returns. Very nice, siamond. What stands out to me is how severe the Oil and Inflation Shocks of the 1970s were for both UK and US stocks and bonds — and probably for all the other developed nations t...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Though I'm a big proponent of TIPS, especially in bond-heavy portfolios, it needs to be said that they're not entirely a risk-free asset. At the longer maturities, they still have considerable interest rates risk — i.e., to changes in real rates (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/XQMHkvI.jpg Source:...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Do TIPS not add value to a 70/30 split in that situation? Right, but with only a 30% bond allocation, there's a limit to how much portfolio insurance one can achieve by adding TIPS. Nothing wrong with adding TIPS (say up to half of bonds), but their impact on the overall portfolio will be limited. ...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

"Bonds are for safety" should be removed from the Bogleheads vocabulary. Good luck y gracias por leer / cfs Lumping TIPS in with nominal bond disasters due to inflation crises is an error. Have to agree with triceratop here. Certainly high-quality nominal bonds have their place in stock-heavy portf...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

One note is that ther was a Federally imposed interest rate cap in the 1940s that deliberately was under inflation. It’s not how bills would have performed without that cap. It’s certainly a risk, but is a confiscatory risk rather than an inherently inflationary one. Good point, one that I'd forgot...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

I don't know what data sources you have available, but rerunning this with T-Bills and/or cash would be helpful, I think (particularly since those have, AFAIK, weathered inflation better). Plotting the monthly real returns of 3-month Treasury bills (in green below) compared with the real total retu...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 09, 2018 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

What is your definition of safe? There could be several definitions, but in the context of this thread, it's assumed that investors with bond-heavy portfolios (60%-100% bonds) are more concerned with capital preservation than the long-term growth of their assets — and capital preservation means rea...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jul 09, 2018 10:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8541

Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

On the heels of a recent thread about historical U.S. portfolio disasters, which focused on stock market crashes, several Forum members protested that historical bond disasters hadn't received their just due. As redress, this post looks at the performance of bond-heavy portfolios during the two peri...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 08, 2018 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

In a PM, a Forum member asked about the most essential lessons we should take from past portfolio disasters. These are the ones that came to mind for me, ones that hopefully apply to a broad spectrum of investors (basic Boglehead principles): 1. Don't let emotions drive your investment decisions. Th...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jul 08, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

I'm probably one of the more vocal supporters of Tips. But i would not go as far as to say that TIPS have made "bond crises" a thing of the past or an artifact of history. The risk of tips is that real interest rates will spike. That could happen for any number of reasons. US could default or be do...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Graphs, like statistics, if tortured sufficiently will confess to the desired conclusion. Few things are as certain as advertised where investing is involved. Whether bonds are safer than stocks varies during a given time frame. Sometimes they are safer (1929 - 1941): sometimes they are riskier (19...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

so probably very difficult to do, but in case you are up for a challenge i'd be interested in seeing the same for Japan starting in say late 1991 for the next two decades, sometimes referred to as the Japanese lost decade or Japan lost "score" (as in four score and 7 years ago...) I believe Forum m...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”
Replies: 21
Views: 3852

Re: “We have a lot to do, and very little time, so we must work slowly.”

From among several such similar examples in history: In 1750, Benjamin Franklin composed a letter describing his groundbreaking experiments involving electricity and sent it to a member of the Royal Society in London. Franklin excused the length of his report as follows: "I have already made this pa...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 7:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

I think the takeaway still is that you didn’t base the analysis on a “worst case” for *portfolios* but rather a worst case for *stocks* because the dates were primarily based on stock crises. The same analysis starting in late 1940 would be an interesting one. Bonds won’t look so “safe” when you in...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

And how does the 10 year treasury bond return compare to something that most people may invest in (total bond market fund or intermediate bond fund)? To keep the focus on how assets have performed historically during worst case crisis periods: Beside 10-year Treasuries, the only other monthly bond ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jul 07, 2018 12:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

Those charts are essentially cherry-picking, I am afraid. Not only do they start in the year where two of the worst stock crises started (1929, 1973, 2000), but they even start at the very exact right month to make a stock-heavy portfolio look as bad as possible, totally ignoring the big ramp-up th...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 06, 2018 6:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

What I take out of the excellent chart is what I have said for sometime... If one is going to be HIGH in equities one better: Have a rock solid occupation, long time horizon, no need for liquidity of that money, and ability to stay the course. An often overlooked but vital point. Beyond stock and b...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

A poll that Mebane Faber did not long ago asked investors what the maximum drawdown of bonds in real terms for U.S. investors over the last 100 years was. Nearly all of them dramatically underestimated it. You've correctly pointed out that it was approximately 40% over a five year period. Those 'sa...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jul 06, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5539

The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

"I was lucky enough to see with my own eyes the recent stock market crash... Never as then, amid suicides, hysteria, and groups of fainting people, have I felt the sensation of real death, death without hope..." - Federico Garcia Lorca, October 1929. What's the worst that's likely to happen to our ...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 05, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: There will be a recession and market downturn
Replies: 58
Views: 3203

Re: There will be a recession and market downturn

Is there anyone out there will argue against me that there will be no US recession between now and next 10 years? Based on the frequency of past recessions in the U.S. (in gray, chart below), the probabilities are definitely in favor of a recession with ten years: https://i.imgur.com/jhTrEbV.jpg Ho...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 05, 2018 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

I noticed today that Ed Yardeni is calculating the current total investor yield of the S&P 500 at 4.45%, consisting of 1.89% div. yield and 2.56% buybacks. If I'm not mistaken, Yardeni is showing gross share buyback yields not net — which is frustrating since it doesn't account for new share issuan...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jul 05, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

Thanks for the Deutsche Asset Management link . Call me dumb, but I can't find how you extracted the 1980+ net buyback annual yields from this document, though? Please clarify? Apologies for the confusion. As I've posted on this topic before, I already had S&P 500 net buyback yields in a spreadshee...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market cap-weighted Index - not diversified?
Replies: 14
Views: 907

Re: Market cap-weighted Index - not diversified?

But I’ve been coming across some articles in the financial “press” that claim holding market cap-weighted index funds leaves one’s portfolio essentially undiversified, because, they say, those market cap weighted holdings are dominated by a few high fliers. Cap-weighted total market indexes always ...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 04, 2018 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

There's been a number of papers in recent years focusing on the Total Payout Yield (dividends plus net share buybacks) as a much superior measure of total return to shareholders, replacing the historical focus on just dividend yields. A recent classic, looking at 1871-2014: The Long-Run Drivers of S...
by SimpleGift
Wed Jul 04, 2018 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

Just to note that U.S. stock repurchases are projected to be in record territory in 2018 — over $800 billion — due to the recent corporate tax cut, plus companies' new ability to bring back overseas cash (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/3XzocU0.jpg Source: Forbes So far in 2018, this buyback boom ...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 03, 2018 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

Re: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

Just for fun, to add a little historical flavor to this thread: Merchants' Exchange Building , home of the Philadelphia Stock Exchange, circa 1870, (the oldest stock exchange in the U.S., founded in 1790 as the Board of Brokers). https://i.imgur.com/a2IW2pD.jpg Source: Free Library As I understand i...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 03, 2018 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017
Replies: 32
Views: 2055

History of U.S. Dividends & Share Buybacks, 1871-2017

At the request of a Forum member, this post looks at the long-term history of U.S. dividends plus net share buybacks — i.e., the Total Payout Yield of cash returned to U.S. stock investors since 1871. The first chart below shows the variation in the Total Payout Yield, around a long term average of ...
by SimpleGift
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 4970

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

The funds I listed above are conservative enough, IMHO, that - for a sophisticated investor - they could totally replace Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund or the equivalent in a portfolio. They have strong factor exposure, for sure, but aren't taking extreme bets as far as I can tell (none of ...