Search found 3833 matches

by SimpleGift
Tue Jun 09, 2020 5:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Officially Enters a Recession
Replies: 10
Views: 1909

Re: US Officially Enters a Recession

I was under the mistaken impression that the NBER does not call a recession until they have determined that it is over, but evidently I misunderstood something. A recent statement from the National Bureau of Economic Research, on their calling of this recession: The usual definition of a recession ...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jun 08, 2020 3:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Have recent events affected boglehead investment philosophy?
Replies: 41
Views: 2592

Re: Have recent events affected boglehead investment philosophy?

Has covid and the recent civil unrest changed anything in terms of boglehead philosophy? The Boglehead "buy-hold-rebalance" strategy has proven successful through crises just as serious as today's pandemic and a few weeks of civil unrest. The chart below shows the progress of the S&P 500 for the 60...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jun 08, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in US?
Replies: 4
Views: 394

Re: Negative Interest Rates in US?

At a press conference on September 18, 2019, the Fed Chairman responded to a question about negative interest rates: You mentioned negative interest rates. So negative interest rates is something that we looked at during the financial crisis and chose not to do. We chose to—after we got to the effec...
by SimpleGift
Sun Jun 07, 2020 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any credible projections out on broad, long-term changes to the economy?
Replies: 11
Views: 945

Re: Any credible projections out on broad, long-term changes to the economy?

Specifically, I'm interested in learning more about... The global economy is in such a state of flux right now that all you're likely to get in answer to your questions is just speculation, even by leading economists, investors and business leaders. However, some of the more "informed speculation" ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)
Replies: 38
Views: 3740

Re: Odd Lots: Why Passive Investing Might Be Distorting The Market (Podcast)

For a simple, easy-to-understand outline of why it's impossible for passive investors in total market stock funds to distort market pricing, see this thread from a couple of years ago: Chart: Why Broad, Cap-weighted Index Funds Can't Move Markets Anyone who believes total market funds move markets e...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends
Replies: 7
Views: 1252

Re: Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends

Is there also any data on how accurate these predictions were in the past? Dividend futures contracts have only been around in the U.S. since 2015, I believe, so there's not a long track record from which to gauge their accuracy. I've not seen any studies of the market forecasts vs. actual dividend...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends
Replies: 7
Views: 1252

Re: Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends

Just to put the current dividend forecasts in context with the two recent recessions (in green, chart below): • 2000-02 Tech Crash ........-12% max dividend decline.........full recovery in 5.5 years • 2007-09 Recession ..........-25% max dividend decline.........full recovery in 4.0 years https://i...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Terrible time to buy bonds?
Replies: 42
Views: 4235

Re: Terrible time to buy bonds?

I am asking for your input in light of the constant beat of the media drum saying now is a terrible time to buy bonds. Should I reconsider this plan or call the noise what it is and implement my plan on Monday? As long as your holding period of BIV (Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF) is longer th...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends
Replies: 7
Views: 1252

Current Outlook for S&P 500 Dividends

Just to update a previous thread from two months ago. At that time, in the midst of the coronavirus panic, the futures markets were projected a 30%-40% decline in S&P 500 dividends into 2021. The latest quarterly futures quotes are now forecasting only a 22% decline into 2021 (chart below) — a much ...
by SimpleGift
Sat Jun 06, 2020 7:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What picture can paint a thousand Bogle words?
Replies: 31
Views: 3563

Re: What picture can paint a thousand Bogle words?

http://i.imgur.com/zDa1m5O.png Source: Vanguard (link to original article is unfortunately lost.) I would really love to get the original article. Does anyone happen to still have it? The original Vanguard blog post from 2011 was called "Stopping the silent killer of returns." Found a web archive l...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jun 05, 2020 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Q2 Divided Outlook?
Replies: 9
Views: 579

Re: Q2 Divided Outlook?

Thoughts? Based on S&P 500 dividend futures quotes , 2nd quarter 2020 dividends are expected to be only 5% below 1st quarter 2020 dividends (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/F5x3kyX.jpg Data sources: Actual quarterly dividends from S&P ; Dividend futures from CME However, these same futures market...
by SimpleGift
Fri Jun 05, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What picture can paint a thousand Bogle words?
Replies: 31
Views: 3563

Re: What picture can paint a thousand Bogle words?

Something that will help people go aha when they see it? In line with Mr. Bogle's "cost matters" philosophy, Vanguard years ago published the table below, showing the cumulative lifetime impact of investment management fees upon one's ending wealth. An eye-opener: http://i.imgur.com/zDa1m5O.png Sou...
by SimpleGift
Thu Jun 04, 2020 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth
Replies: 136
Views: 29174

Re: William Bernstein: the paradox of wealth

But...isn't the higher (not lower) equity returns we've seen over the last several years exactly what one would expect from increasing CAPE? The concept of lower equity returns following from higher CAPE values comes from the historical regression analyses like the one below. It gives the impressio...
by SimpleGift
Mon Jun 01, 2020 7:43 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Chinese Bond Exposure
Replies: 22
Views: 1147

Re: Chinese Bond Exposure

Most emerging market bond indexes haven't historically included Chinese bonds. For example, the index used by Vanguard (the JP Morgan EMBI Global Diversified Index) has 0% exposure to China. But these indexes have focused mostly on US dollar emerging market bonds. Since about March 2019, however, Ch...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 11:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

But in terms of (perceived) scale of change, I don't see that there is such a large difference. Yes, we have a different outlook on the scale of the conflict between the U.S. and China in the years ahead. But then you should make the case to avoid emerging markets as a whole? Not necessarily. We've...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

I don't understand why you perceive a cognitive dissonance... My point is that power struggles between large/mega economic powers are ALWAYS there, it's just part of the way the world works. There's a difference between simply competitive economies and a Great Power struggle such as now taking plac...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 4:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

To get this thread back on track, a recent article on the OP topic from the Foreign Policy website: Americans Are Investing More in China—and They Don’t Even Know It As officials from the United States and China navigate not only a trade war but also growing geopolitical competition—as well as a cla...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

AZAttorney11 wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 1:49 pm
Another thread derailed by Klang. This one started out promising and was thought provoking (thanks, SimpleGift).
Yes, it would be better for all if KlangFool started a new thread about his (unrelated) reserve currency concerns.
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

If you're talking about limits being imposed by the US government on US citizens holding Chinese stocks, then I'd expect index providers to bring out custom "ex-China" indices that conform to whatever the rule is. Yes, this is the concern. Good point that index providers would likely respond with "...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

The question .. How long will U.S. index funds be able to continue to passively provide investment capital to Chinese companies? Can not be answered without speculating on ... any pending legislation or your political opinions. Actually, my sense is the question is larger than any particular legisl...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Re: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

KlangFool wrote:
Sun May 31, 2020 11:59 am
Please offer a better question.
How about discussing the topic and the question actually asked in the OP? :wink:
by SimpleGift
Sun May 31, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle
Replies: 54
Views: 3008

Index Investing and the U.S.-China Great Power Struggle

There seems to be increasing cognitive dissonance in the financial press around China and index fund investments there. On the one hand, the major index providers such as FTSE and MSCI are pushing ahead aggressively with their programs to include more mainland China stock shares in their indexes (ch...
by SimpleGift
Sat May 30, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience
Replies: 6
Views: 1120

Re: Come on in, the water is fine: My 10-yr BH experience

I would also be interested in hearing from other members with "early days" experiences or their longer-term observations and take-aways! We just reached 20 years with our Bogleheads "buy-hold-rebalance" portfolio. In the late 1990s, we sold a business and set up a 50/50 portfolio of Vanguard index ...
by SimpleGift
Sat May 30, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Big Winners Dominating Index Funds. So?
Replies: 4
Views: 586

Re: Big Winners Dominating Index Funds. So?

My question is "so what"? If the big winners dominate index funds, isn't that good? Or, is it likely to end in tears as the article suggests? Ben Carlson has a more sober, instructive article on the current concentration of S&P 500 stocks: 5 Companies Make up 18% of the S&P 500. Should Investors Ca...
by SimpleGift
Sat May 30, 2020 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Market Portfolio
Replies: 12
Views: 1308

Re: Global Market Portfolio

Does anyone know where the 2020 Global Market Portfolio weightings can be found? The linked paper below updates the "investable" global market portfolio as of October 2019. It's one of the most comprehensive coverage of global assets that I've seen, including equities, private equity, global real e...
by SimpleGift
Thu May 28, 2020 10:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?
Replies: 12
Views: 1122

Re: Bigger risk to stock market - deflation or inflation?

Historically, S&P 500 stocks have done well during periods of mild deflation (0% to -4%), as well as mild inflation (0% to 4%). It's only when deflation or inflation gets to extremes (>4%) that stocks have historically started to suffer (chart below): https://i.imgur.com/edBozWW.jpg Note: Shows annu...
by SimpleGift
Wed May 27, 2020 8:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 4379

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

That graph says we had significant inflation in the 1970s, but past performance doesn't predict future returns. My apologies. The point of posting the chart was to show that actual inflation is often wildly different from the consensus forecast of inflation in any given year — and thus inflation is...
by SimpleGift
Wed May 27, 2020 4:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 4379

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

UpperNwGuy wrote:
Wed May 27, 2020 4:13 pm
What is the likelihood of unexpected inflation?
  • Image
by SimpleGift
Wed May 27, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 4379

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

From all the reading I've been doing on bonds and fixed income (preparation for allocation decisions within retirement) it sounds like the choice for fixed income "vehicles" is insanely personal. My sense as well. Regarding TIPS in retirement, there's quite a variation among retirees in their expos...
by SimpleGift
Wed May 27, 2020 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?
Replies: 67
Views: 4379

Re: Vanguard Target Adds TIPS?

Can someone please explain why Vanguard adds TIPS only upon retirement age to their Target Retirement funds? What is it about TIPS and/or Vanguard's view on TIPS that only makes them appropriate in one's deccumulation phase? While in the accumulation phase, it's expected that one's higher stock all...
by SimpleGift
Wed May 27, 2020 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Chinese Stocks in VTIAX
Replies: 5
Views: 519

Re: Rising Chinese Stocks in VTIAX

Is anyone nervous about the rising share of Chinese stocks in VTIAX (currently over 10%)? If nervous about China's increasing share of global market cap (which will only continue to rise, as more mainland A-shares are added to the indexes) — and still wanting exposure to international markets, a co...
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Re: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior

I think short-lived market downturns correlating to short-term pandemics won't be very relevant if we end up in a prolonged pandemic, as currently appears distinctly possible — if not likely. Looking at the blue bar graph, I don't see anything like a tail end yet, do you? No, you're right, the U.S....
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Re: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior

I also find it interesting how in early February when the Asian market crashed, the US market was still on the rise. Yes. The "pandemic pattern" of the stock market (i.e., a deep sell-off and the start of recovery happening well before the peak of cases) was almost exactly the same in both the U.S,...
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Re: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior

Interesting to note that the 2003 SARS epidemic, though it only lasted a few months, saw almost exactly the same stock market pattern in relation to the progression of cases as observed in the U.S. and China in the OP (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/WJm69ad.png Source: SIM , showing S&P 500 price...
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior
Replies: 13
Views: 1195

Covid-19 Fears and Stock Market Behavior

It's a little early to be writing the history of the Covid-19 pandemic and stock markets, but it is instructive to observe the progression of daily cases in the United States and China this year compared with the behavior of their respective stock markets (charts below). https://i.imgur.com/j0VLraK....
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 12:54 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Bogleheads' Reading Strategies for Boglehead Forums
Replies: 21
Views: 1609

Re: Bogleheads' Reading Strategies for Boglehead Forums

Some might respond only in certain forums... This describes how my Forum reading strategy has evolved. I feel most useful in the "Investing - Theory, News & General" sub-forum, so most of my time is spent reading and commenting there. Occasionally, I'll peruse the "Personal Finance" and "Personal C...
by SimpleGift
Tue May 26, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

The feds expanding money supply?? QE. Wouldn’t that lead to inflation which will cause interest rate hikes which would make the debt harder to carry? It’s like a domino effect. In over 20 episodes since 1990 in which developed countries doubled or tripled their monetary base in response to a crisis...
by SimpleGift
Mon May 25, 2020 3:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

According to your chart, Japan saw an uptick in GDP growth in the 2010s... The increase from the 2000s to the 2010s was only from 0.5% to 0.7% — so I'm not sure we can make too much hay out of such a small increase. However, it's worth noting that Japan's population was shrinking over this period (...
by SimpleGift
Mon May 25, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

It'd be interesting to see this data on a single graph... Rather than focusing on the trend lines of declining growth in individual countries, it might be more instructive to look at their growth trends over the past 50 years by decade (chart below). https://i.imgur.com/Qo73pce.jpg Data source: Wor...
by SimpleGift
Mon May 25, 2020 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Our history of being a nation of immigrants was and remains integral to sustained economic growth and expansion. Absent robust immigration for the majority of the 20th century, I suspect we would already be Japan. This has certainly been a big factor. And it's a realization that both Japan and Euro...
by SimpleGift
Mon May 25, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Luckily we live in a highly globalized world. You don't need domestic GDP growth for great stock market returns. The correlation between GDP growth rate and stock market returns seems to be even negative. While the correlation between GDP growth and stock returns has been low or negative for indivi...
by SimpleGift
Mon May 25, 2020 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

The relative success of the U.S. stock market should not lead folks to believe that the U.S. economy is somehow exceptional or immune from the global demographic and secular forces impacting the rest of the world. In fact, U.S. economic growth has been decelerating for six decades, right along with ...
by SimpleGift
Sun May 24, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 68
Views: 5353

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

Even before the virus crisis, the problem of Japan was essentially an economy that, in the face of massive and sustained monetary stimulus, was still growing below potential — which means there was not enough demand. No matter how much credit a central bank provides, if no one comes to borrow, it do...
by SimpleGift
Sat May 23, 2020 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4645

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Markets are telling us growth and inflation are likely to be low for a generation. Yes. The bond markets, specifically, are simply acknowledging the trend of slowing real GDP growth that has been underway for at least six decades in the developed world (charts below). https://i.imgur.com/tNruxWj.jp...
by SimpleGift
Fri May 22, 2020 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Impact of delisting on foreign stocks/companies
Replies: 5
Views: 315

Re: Historical Impact of delisting on foreign stocks/companies

So if you get new shares, does that become taxeable event? Really don't know — and an Internet search may not reveal much, since we're far into hypothetical territory here. But since there's now proposed legislation directed at Chinese stocks listed on U.S. exchanges (which is beyond Forum rules to...
by SimpleGift
Fri May 22, 2020 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical Impact of delisting on foreign stocks/companies
Replies: 5
Views: 315

Re: Historical Impact of delisting on foreign stocks/companies

I am not sure if in past something similar happened with Russia or another country, where companies were delisted, more as a political move then due the performance of those companies... It appears that several Russian companies are still listed on U.S. exchanges, even after the United States impos...
by SimpleGift
Thu May 21, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4645

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

The concentration at the top of the S&P can’t go on like it is without problems. For one thing, by smaller companies being eliminated or seriously frustrated in their efforts to gain market share, those are potential customers for the larger companies- but they’re being eliminated. Appreciate your ...
by SimpleGift
Thu May 21, 2020 6:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4645

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Bond investors are preparing for a stagnant economic future with possible negative rates, while stock investors are figuring that even if inflation and economic growth remain low for decades, stocks will still outperform... Isn't this what's been going on for several decades now? The yields on long...
by SimpleGift
Thu May 21, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12799

Re: Investing in International Stocks

What happened in 2002-2003 for North America ex-USA to cause the number of companies to jump by what looks like about a factor of 3 or so? Don't really know. Most likely, it was a classification change by S&P that included more North American stocks (perhaps adding the exchanges in Mexico?), rather...
by SimpleGift
Thu May 21, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 60 World Stock Markets
Replies: 153
Views: 12799

Re: Investing in International Stocks

North America and Europe both hold 40.6% and 19.5% respectively of the world’s markets... By market cap, the stock exchanges in North America and Europe are certainly dominant today, but this obscures the explosion in the number of new listed companies worldwide since the 1970s — most notably in Ea...