Search found 2635 matches

by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

There is no such thing as a "natural" level. It depends on the rest of the economical environment. Hear, hear! There is no magical, mean value at which stocks are destined to trade — and no good reason why CAPE 10 values must revert back to historical averages anytime soon. Especially if interest r...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

So really, the only meaningful chart is dividends+earnings growth (fundamental return) vs. P/E variation (speculative return). The golden goose in other words! If interested in a golden goose chart such as you're describing, one can certainly draw one up from the S&P Dow Jones data in the OP, found...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Am I wrong in thinking about the bull this way?
Replies: 6
Views: 653

Re: Am I wrong in thinking about the bull this way?

Can I counter my own counterargument by asking, isn't the hopes (not promise) of a rising market the reason why we invest at all? Therefore, the market is doing what we want it to do. Right. But the reason why we invest in stocks is much more than a hope — it's a calculated expectation that compani...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 68
Views: 5293

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

A November 2017 survey of 564 bitcoin owners in the U.S. included this question: At what price per Bitcoin would you be willing to sell all of your Bitcoin investment? On average, respondents reported that they would be willing to sell all of their Bitcoin investment at $196,165.79 per Bitcoin. At t...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

Historically, pervasive optimism and investor complacency tends to happen in the late stages of a bull market. That doesn't mean it will collapse soon, but rather that at some point in the future, air will start leaking out the positive emotional balloon and PE expansion will likely moderate, cease...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The story of this thread so far, in a nutshell: OP: This is a picture of a chicken. Any thoughts? First Responder: But that bird doesn't have webbed feet. How can it be a duck? OP: If you look closer, you'll see that it's actually a chicken. Second Responder: But why didn't you offer a picture of a ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

So your chart makes it seem like P/E ratios are not inflated. They are, by a lot. Kindly re-read the OP. The point of the chart and OP exercise is to answer a simple question, raised in a previous Forum thread: "How much of the U.S. market's price gains in recent decades have come from fundamental ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 15, 2017 9:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

The chart posted in the OP doesn't include dividends, correct? Then it is not representative of fundamental returns nor total-returns, I'm afraid. Correct. In the interest of simplification, the OP exercise just focuses on price changes to the S&P 500, breaking out the annual changes to earnings an...
by SimpleGift
Thu Dec 14, 2017 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

If I (and the market) know EPS are going to jump 50% 10 years from now, that will be priced in as total return today. and will fall out of the rolling window by the time my prediction is realized. The problem is that even the experts whose job it is to predict the market's future earnings-per-share...
by SimpleGift
Thu Dec 14, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

Perhaps calling changes in P/E "moods" is a tad reductive. It also includes expectations on future earnings, which sometimes are estimated in a rather cold fashion. Fair point. But over long periods, the relationship between speculative market returns (multiple changes) and fundamental returns (div...
by SimpleGift
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 27
Views: 1631

Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

How much of the U.S. market's price gains in recent decades have come from fundamental returns (earnings growth) and how much simply from investor enthusiasm (multiple expansion)? This question came up in a recent Forum discussion and it just happens that S&P Dow Jones publishes a quarterly spreadsh...
by SimpleGift
Sun Dec 10, 2017 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Modern Corporation and the Public Interest" by John C. Bogle
Replies: 13
Views: 1022

Re: "The Modern Corporation and the Public Interest" by John C. Bogle

Corporate enterprise has a social dimension that economists are trained to overlook. Historically, from the original concept of corporations, there was a direct link between the exemption from individual responsibility for corporate investors (and later officers), and the public good that corporatio...
by SimpleGift
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 3890

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

The vast majority of people buying index funds don’t care much about the underlying companies they are purchasing shares of. Their primary goal is to perform as well as the underlying market and hopefully beat inflation. They are speculating that by throwing their money into a little bit of everyth...
by SimpleGift
Sat Dec 09, 2017 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3070

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

The 2000 - 2009 period demonstrates that significant diversification may be achieved simply by using different slices of equity assets. US LC index had very different returns from EM or even a well-run US SCV fund. Of course bonds provided equity diversification as they always do. Some choose to ad...
by SimpleGift
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3070

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Diversification paid off. Yes, diversification does pay off in some decades. Prior to 2000, and after about 2013, the S&P 500 was consistently near the top of best performing asset classes (chart below). But for the so called "Lost Decade" of 2000-2009, holding almost any other asset class — includ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 08, 2017 2:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Call the top! - Bitcoin
Replies: 68
Views: 5293

Re: Call the top! - Bitcoin

Found this comment on a Financial Times article yesterday, from someone trying to sell their Bitcoin holdings: I tried to sell my remaining holdings today (after hitting more than $17k) and I'm still waiting after about 20 hours for my transaction being confirmed to get it into an exchange. There's ...
by SimpleGift
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?
Replies: 20
Views: 1136

Re: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?

However, to push back a little on this, do you think there is a difference in the type of exposure you get through foreign companies vs domestic in terms of the country specific risk? To some degree, I believe you're right. One can't exactly duplicate exposure to local Chinese companies with revenu...
by SimpleGift
Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?
Replies: 20
Views: 1136

Re: Thoughts on Malkiel saying a world index maybe underweight countries like China?

For instance, in Vanguard Total World Stock ETF China represents 2.6%, whereas its GDP as a percentage of world GDP is around 15%. So Malkiel suggest bulking up more on a country like China. What are people's thoughts on this? It's worth noting that, while China may not yet make up a large percenta...
by SimpleGift
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1742

Re: Bond Risk question

Sorry SimpleGift, for the deep in the weeds response. No worries, Doc. The practical considerations of owning and buying/selling individual bonds are an important aspect of the decision faced by the OP. To which we can add higher bond transaction costs (bid/ask spreads, plus dealer markups) for ind...
by SimpleGift
Sun Dec 03, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Risk question
Replies: 18
Views: 1742

Re: Bond Risk question

Since the value of bond funds typically go down when interest rates rise, am I better to ladder individual (high quality, short term) bonds to minimize loss? Michael Kitces wrote a good article a few years ago, in which he analyzed in depth the very question you are asking: Why Bonds Funds Aren’t N...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 01, 2017 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix
Replies: 38
Views: 3531

Re: Is 60/40 mix the sleep mix or 80/20 mix

From long term perspective, is the 60/40 a sleep and forget mix or 80/20 mix? It's impossible to provide a generalized answer to your question, because it depends so much upon the individual temperament of the person doing the sleeping. As revealed in a Bogleheads Poll from 2015, even among the enl...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 01, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Diversification: A Reason to Stay the Course With Your High-Quality Bond Fund."
Replies: 21
Views: 3563

Re: "Diversification: A Reason to Stay the Course With Your High-Quality Bond Fund."

Agree, but the blow will not be cushioned nearly as much at current interest rates, because rates are only going to fall so far. In 2000 rates were around 6, in 2007 around 4.5. Now they are 2.4. At their lowest they were just under 2.0. Good point — but my sense is that high-quality bonds provide ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Dec 01, 2017 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

There's even more good news for emerging market stock investors. After being in the doldrums for four years, corporate earnings of emerging market companies are not only growing at an annualized pace of nearly 20% in 2017, but the growth is spread across all of the world's emerging regions (chart be...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

My thoughts: nobody knows nothing. There's certainly nothing wrong with a buy-hold-rebalance equity investor taking the stance that they "know nothing" — especially if this helps one sleep at night. But for the many Forum members who have been expressing their anxieties and concerns about the curre...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

It's worth noting that corporate earnings in all regions of the world today are currently growing at 10% or more annualized, for the first time since 2005, according to BlackRock. While U.S. earnings growth rates are in the 10%-11% range for 2017, earnings growth rates of companies in Europe, Japan ...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

There seems to be quite a few Forum members these days expressing their concerns about the long-running and "overvalued" bull market of U.S. stocks, plus their anxiety about global equity market risks in general. Good information. Do you have any concerns about the manner in which the market has ri...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

They've predicted sharp declines, and the reality has been level. So, they have now changed and are predicting the future to be near-level. Does this mean anything more than "we are now predicting future performance from past results?" The confusion, nisiprius, is that you're reading the chart upsi...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Re: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

Just to add: Much of the current anxiety about the U.S. stock market seems to stem from investors' concerns about high CAPE 10 values (higher than Black Tuesday in 1929!). The thinking appears to be: https://s33.postimg.org/g9w7le8jj/J4j_Bml_L.jpg But valuations are expected to be high when interest...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 30, 2017 12:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?
Replies: 21
Views: 1844

Rational Optimism for Global Stock Returns?

There seems to be quite a few Forum members these days expressing their concerns about the long-running and "overvalued" bull market of U.S. stocks, plus their anxiety about global equity market risks in general. This post makes the case that, at least for economic growth and corporate earnings, the...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is it 1996 yet?
Replies: 21
Views: 2523

Re: Is it 1996 yet?

Clearly, sustained low inflation implies less uncertainty about the future, and lower risk premiums imply higher prices of stocks and other earning assets. We can see that in the inverse relationship exhibited by price/earnings ratios and the rate of inflation in the past. But how do we know when i...
by SimpleGift
Wed Nov 29, 2017 6:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

^^^ It would appear so. This is the velocity of Bitcoin price increases year-to-date, for 2017: $1,000-$2,000: 138 days $2,000-$3,000: 23 days $3,000-$4,000: 63 days $4,000-$5,000: 61 days $5,000-$6,000: 10 days $6,000-$7,000: 13 days $7,000-$8,000: 17 days $8,000-$9,000: 7 days $9,000-$10,000: 2 da...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The impact of expenses - a call for creativity
Replies: 19
Views: 1297

Re: The impact of expenses - a call for creativity

I would like some creative ideas, I am not sure the new spouses have even given it a second thought. Thanks! The impact of annual fund expenses seems fairly easy to get across, since whatever fees paid to investment managers come directly out of annual investor returns — simple subtraction. However...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 7:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Todd, I thought it was a typo, but you seem to view bitcoin as an asset class. Seems to me it looks much more like an individual stock. Even if you were to generalize to crypto-currencies, I don't see that as an asset class, or even a sector, just a handful of individual stocks. As such, extreme be...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Actually, I'm beginning to wonder if the extraordinary price run-up of Bitcoin this year (along with other crypto-currencies) would even qualify as a bubble, according to the classic models — that is, compared with what we've come to understand about "normal" asset bubbles, such as the Tech Bubble (...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

Bitcoin has been around for 9 years. People have been calling it a bubble just as long. True. But when a financial asset gains more than 900% in one year (as Bitcoin has done so far in 2017), then its price gains are getting into the territory of extraordinary and unprecedented. Putting aside the q...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Re: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

I think Bitcoin should be cautionary tale for those who underestimate the pace at which disruption can and will move in the future. The speed with which the Bitcoin price run-up is occurring seems remarkable. The tulip bulb mania took several years to reach its peak (from 1634 to 1637). The dot.com...
by SimpleGift
Tue Nov 28, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?
Replies: 70
Views: 4782

Tracking the Bitcoin Bubble in Real Time?

For those of us who are not invested in Bitcoin and are just disinterested observers today, I'm thinking there's a wonderful opportunity to see if the real world behavior of a financial market matches the academic model of an asset bubble (at right below). https://s33.postimg.org/lbp6xccdr/Bitcoin_B...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 27, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"
Replies: 63
Views: 7844

Re: CNBC says Vanguard says 70% Chance of "Correction"

Since 1980, the average intra-year decline of the S&P 500 has been about 14% (chart below) — but annual returns have been positive in 28 out of 37 calendar years: https://s33.postimg.org/w2l1kdmqn/Untitled.jpg Source: JPMorgan , as of 10/31/17. In other words, corrections are normal market behavior ...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 27, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016
Replies: 7
Views: 946

Re: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016

I think what is key here is Anglo-Saxon capitalism . Which has, in the last 150 years or so, always had a big role for external shareholders (who were not directly related to the owners or managers). A very good way to put it, Valuethinker. Yes, the evolution of equity financing and external shareh...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 26, 2017 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016
Replies: 7
Views: 946

Re: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016

In a PM this morning, a Forum member asked for more details on the "free-float" percentages of various stock indexes around the world. Since there's some fairly recent data on the MSCI global indexes from 2016, I'm posting it in this thread as well: https://s33.postimg.org/oglehfkun/Untitled.jpg Sou...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 25, 2017 6:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016
Replies: 7
Views: 946

Re: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016

Implied by your 2nd plot (number of Indexed vs. Non-indexed companies) is the importance of company size (market cap). Thank you, Lady Geek, for charts of the market-cap breakdown in the current global index. Looking at the current dominance by the developed countries of U.S., Europe and Japan, I a...
by SimpleGift
Sat Nov 25, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016
Replies: 7
Views: 946

The Expanding Universe of Global Stocks, 1975-2016

Much has been written about the declining number of listed stocks in the U.S. since the tech boom of the late 1990s. However, this obscures a much more dramatic expansion in the number of listed stocks worldwide since then — most notably in East Asia and Pacific countries (in red, chart below). Whil...
by SimpleGift
Fri Nov 24, 2017 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question
Replies: 5
Views: 612

Re: Vanguard Value Index Mutual Fund Question

Buyer beware tilting towards value, as value is very subjective, what is a 'value' company? The definition of the growth and value factors does vary among index providers and research firms. For example, using Morningstar's style definitions , Vanguard's Total Stock Market Fund (VTMSX) will always ...
by SimpleGift
Fri Nov 24, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 8908

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

Just to add more background on the expanding universe of global stocks in recent decades. In 1990, it appears there were about 22,000 listed companies worldwide — while by 2010 there were about 45,000 companies listed on global exchanges. http://i46.tinypic.com/2a7x4pf.jpg Source: Reuters Of course,...
by SimpleGift
Fri Nov 24, 2017 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?
Replies: 101
Views: 8908

Re: Why does everyone keep increasing their international stock %?

Hi all. I would like to know why many finance authors and investing resources continue to increase their recommended equity allocation to international stocks year after year. One of the reasons may be that the global universe of investable stocks keeps expanding. For example, in 1990, 59 countries...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 23, 2017 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14000

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

Even if one resists the prospect of holding bonds with zero real returns, what is the alternative for a diversified portfolio? Hold stocks instead! :wink: For those who want to dampen the volatility of an otherwise all stock portfolio, bonds may be their only choice. But some of us have access to s...
by SimpleGift
Thu Nov 23, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is holding bonds now dangerous?
Replies: 155
Views: 14000

Re: Is holding bonds now dangerous?

It seems that holding any bonds with maturities more than a year or two is a likely way to lose money in real terms. If/when inflation and interest rates increase, you'll be behind the curve in terms of yield, appreciation, and inflation. Consciously or unconsciously since the early 1980s, investor...
by SimpleGift
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4852

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

Yeah, we're heading for a future where a small # of fund companies - Vanguard plus perhaps Blackrock, Fidelity and maybe another few, will have, collectively, effective voting control of most large US listed companies. I wouldn't be surprised if, before this happens, we see a punitive legal or legi...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 19, 2017 4:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?
Replies: 41
Views: 4852

Re: Is investing with Vanguard a tragedy of the commons?

There's little doubt that Vanguard intends to keep on growing. From a Allan Roth article : Vanguard executives shy away from making forecasts, but the company is investing heavily in infrastructure, says Michael Miller, managing director of the company's planning and development group. "We want to h...
by SimpleGift
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?
Replies: 7
Views: 818

Re: Different Approaches to Estimating World's Total Market?

SimpleGift , you mention in one of your reference posts that looking at your portfolio through the "economic exposure" lense, 35% US, 32% Developed Markets and 33% EM, sounds like a good allocation to you. Why is that? How do you get to these numbers? Are there any studies or research done to sugge...