Search found 1259 matches

by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 2033

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

Sometimes it's fun to do IRR calculations on the cash flows. year age cash flo IRR 1 51 -50000 2 52 0 3 53 0 4 54 0 5 55 0 6 56 0 7 57 0 8 58 0 9 59 0 10 60 0 11 61 5000 12 62 5000 -14.19% 13 63 5000 -10.34% 14 64 5000 -7.63% 15 65 5000 -5.59% 16 66 5000 -3.99% 17 67 5000 -2.70% 18 68 5000 -1.63% 19...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Making it easier to track posts from the OP
Replies: 50
Views: 5295

Re: Making it easier to track posts from the OP

Which means some change to the layout is all that's needed, e.g. an extra input field or a selector to search on author vs keywords. Good idea. This bookmarklet alters the thread search box to be an author search. Run the bookmarklet then click on the magnifying glass to search for all the posts in...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Making it easier to track posts from the OP
Replies: 50
Views: 5295

Re: Making it easier to track posts from the OP

I'm still hoping there will be an easy way to just see only the OP's posts in a thread. Still not quite what you want but this bookmarklet will remove all the posts on a page except those from the topic author. javascript:(function(){$(".post").not(":has(\".phpbb-showtopicauthor\")").css("display",...
by Oicuryy
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7299

Re: Annuities objectively considered

The problem with what I was offered was that there was no death benefit. So if I bought today and died before age 65, my heirs would get zero. That is part of the deal. If you buy car insurance and don't have an accident you don't get your money back. If you buy homeowners insurance and your house ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7299

Re: Annuities objectively considered

But in my mind, that’s still better than giving up complete and total control of your money, cosindering that the SPIA only paid 0.6% more over the course of a lifetime. Really? You think it is worth spending 8.45% of her monthly payout for the option to take excess withdrawals that would reduce he...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?
Replies: 24
Views: 2381

Re: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?

Does this vbscript do what you want? Save it with a .vbs extension. Run it at a command prompt with the input and output filenames as arguments. For example. ecobee "c:\junk\ecobee.csv" "c:\junk\ecobeededuped.csv" Sub ecobee(infile, outfile) Const ForReading = 1, ForWriting = 2, ForAppending = 3 Set...
by Oicuryy
Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting your own money back: annuities vs. social security
Replies: 21
Views: 1532

Re: Getting your own money back: annuities vs. social security

cheese_breath wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:24 am
Annuities are optional. Social security isn't (in most cases).
Everyone has the option to not accept the taxes taken from working people.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?
Replies: 14
Views: 3196

Re: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?

From a Vanguard statement of additional information. Redemption of Shares (Other than ETF Shares) The redemption price of shares of each Fund is the NAV per share next determined after the redemption request is received in good order, as defined in the Fund’s prospectus. Each Fund can postpone payme...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's my pension rate of return?
Replies: 4
Views: 721

Re: What's my pension rate of return?

I get an IRR of 6.9% from these fifty-five cash flows. -11 -11.22 -11.4444 -11.673288 -11.90675376 -12.14488884 -12.38778661 -12.63554234 -12.88825319 -13.14601825 -13.40893862 -13.67711739 -13.95065974 -14.22967293 -14.51426639 -14.80455172 -15.10064276 -15.40265561 -15.71070872 -16.0249229 -16.345...
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 33
Views: 3816

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

geospatial wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:51 am
But does anybody know if there's a place that shows the maturities of their holdings within those categories?
SOMA holdings are here.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma ... ccholdings

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HD tv and non HD stations
Replies: 27
Views: 1307

Re: New HD tv and non HD stations

From the user manual. Eco Sensor adjusts the brightness of the TV automatically. This feature measures the light in your room and optimizes the brightness of the TV automatically to reduce power consumption. If you want to turn this off, go to > Settings> General > Eco Solution > Ambient Light Detec...
by Oicuryy
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain specifically how the "bucket" approach to retirement withdrawals is supposed to work?
Replies: 75
Views: 5168

Re: Can someone explain specifically how the "bucket" approach to retirement withdrawals is supposed to work?

That is a trade secret. You have to pay an investment manager an AUM fee to use their proprietary system to move money from bucket to bucket for you. None of them will tell you the details.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Nov 03, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FRED inflation--breakeven vs forward expectation estimate?
Replies: 5
Views: 413

Re: FRED inflation--breakeven vs forward expectation estimate?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland’s inflation expectations model uses Treasury yields, inflation data, inflation swaps, and survey-based measures of inflation expectations to calculate the expected inflation rate (CPI) over the next 30 years. https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-research/indicators...
by Oicuryy
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?
Replies: 41
Views: 4597

Re: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?

Right, but those shares were sold at the same time, so the wash sale shouldn't apply, correct? This is the gist of the thread. Can I do this or can't I? And if not, why not? (Because there are multiple other instance of it that were apparently fine.) I believe Vanguard is technically correct. But y...
by Oicuryy
Sun Oct 28, 2018 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?
Replies: 41
Views: 4597

Re: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?

Right. Bought them on 9/28 and sold them on 10/9. Why is that a wash sale? The sale of shares bought on 9/28 is not a wash sale. The sale of some of the shares bought on 8/20 look like a wash sale because you bought "substantially identical" replacement shares within 30 days of the sale. While you ...
by Oicuryy
Sun Oct 28, 2018 1:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?
Replies: 41
Views: 4597

Re: Vanguard thinks I have a wash sale. Do I?

Did the disallowed losses on the lots bought on 8/20 get added to the cost basis of the replacement shares bought on 9/28?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand this wash sale
Replies: 19
Views: 903

Re: Help me understand this wash sale

Grover wrote:
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:26 pm
I thought because I am selling the all shares that I bought on 10/10 wouldn’t be a wash.
My comment was based on the image you posted. That image does not show a sale of shares bought on 10/10/18.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Oct 27, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand this wash sale
Replies: 19
Views: 903

Re: Help me understand this wash sale

On 10/26/18 you sold some shares of VTIAX that were purchased in 2017. Within 30 days of that sale, on 10/10/18, you bought some shares of VTIAX that replaced some or all of the shares sold. That makes the sale a wash sale. Example 4 of the Fairmark post does not apply because the shares you sold we...
by Oicuryy
Sat Oct 27, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand this wash sale
Replies: 19
Views: 903

Re: Help me understand this wash sale

Sounds like you sold some but not all of your shares in total international at a loss within 30 days of buying shares in the same fund. That would be a wash sale. The shares you bought are considered replacement shares for the ones you sold. Edit: Or maybe not. See examples 4 and 5 in this Fairmark ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields

***I’m assuming that bond prices are the primary driver in the inverse relationship between bond prices and bond yields. i.e. that it’s bond prices that change bond yields – not bond yields that change bond prices (please correct me if I’m wrong) Sometimes it helps to think about it the other way a...
by Oicuryy
Wed Oct 24, 2018 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields
Replies: 20
Views: 1516

Re: Effect of Federal Funds Rate on bond yields

If you want to borrow money and if your credit is not as good as the Fed's and/or you want to borrow for a term longer than overnight then you will have to offer a higher interest rate than the Fed offers.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Oct 22, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Indexed variable annuity question
Replies: 3
Views: 402

Re: Indexed variable annuity question

However, in this product the sales call center tells me that the greater value can be cashed out. I don't believe it Believe it. That is the selling point of indexed annuities. They cut of part of the peaks and troughs of the index. Usually, these higher values are used to calculate a lifetime inco...
by Oicuryy
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?
Replies: 61
Views: 3418

Re: Why are Carbon Offset Credits so cheap?

Where are you buying offsets for $3.30/ton per year? This place charges $4.99/1000 lbs per month.
https://www.terrapass.com/product/subscription

I don't know anything about that site except that it was on the first page of a Google search. How does one know these places are legitimate?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Oct 19, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 43
Views: 4200

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

Those interested in history and 1970s inflation might enjoy this article.
Arthur Burns and Inflation

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3783

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

Or are you saying that there is a fundamental difference between my coin flip and "a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset?" This, I think. Imagine some sort of structured product where the annual return was determined by a coin flip. Heads and the annual return is +10%; tails its −10%. You ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3783

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

If you imagine they each start with equal amounts of VBINX (60/40 balanced index), worth exactly $100,000 at the time of the bet, then after the bet is settled one of them owns $99,000 worth of VBINX and the other owns $101,000 worth. That is not an investment it two assets. That is an investment i...
by Oicuryy
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:24 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: My threads or posts.
Replies: 6
Views: 761

Re: My threads or posts.

by Oicuryy
Wed Oct 10, 2018 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3783

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

My answer is b) no effect. You have a contract with your friend. The contract cost you nothing. It has an expected value of zero. It will not come due and be settled for at least twenty years. I calculate that there is only about a 6% chance that you will end up owing, or winning, more than $25,000....
by Oicuryy
Mon Oct 01, 2018 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6216

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

So I'm curious to hear what are folks' thoughts on how we've been doing from a price stability perspective? The price of a thing is the ratio of the value of the thing to the value of a dollar. If the price of a thing is five dollars, its value is five times the value of a dollar. The Fed does not ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6216

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

What (real-world consequences) would happen if they stopped paying IOER? It looks like free money for the banks, so why not stop paying it Higher inflation, maybe. See this article about who is lending and who is borrowing federal funds. The Federal Funds Market since the Financial Crisis IOER give...
by Oicuryy
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6216

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

In a free market, shouldn't banks constantly assess market conditions and adjust their lending standards/criteria and consequently rates they can offer to customers in order to stay competitive and win business from borrowers? They should and they do. Banks freely and independently choose to set th...
by Oicuryy
Thu Sep 27, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?
Replies: 71
Views: 6216

Re: Economic reasons for rate increase by the Fed?

The economic benefit of the Fed's monetary policy efforts is a stable, predictable value of the dollar. The value of a dollar, like the value of everything else, is determined by supply and demand. The Fed attempts to keep the supply of money growing slightly faster than demand so that the value of ...
by Oicuryy
Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag
Replies: 31
Views: 2671

Re: Nice Explanation of Volatility Drag

The portfolios with same mean expected return but lower expected volatility can be expected to have a greater geometric return. If you limit yourself to portfolios that are on the efficient frontier then there will not be any portfolios that have the same arithmetic mean but different variances. A ...
by Oicuryy
Fri Aug 10, 2018 9:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Switch to Brokerage Accounts
Replies: 60
Views: 7162

Re: Vanguard Switch to Brokerage Accounts

BUT you can open one of the old accounts if you CALL them and specifically ask for it. Thank you for confirming this. The prospectus for Vanguard mutual funds says you can hold funds directly with Vanguard Group Inc. (mutual fund account) as well as though Vanguard Brokerage Services (brokerage acc...
by Oicuryy
Mon Jul 23, 2018 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3473

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Inflation is the result of monetary policy. Inflation is an increase in prices caused by a decrease in the value of money. The price of a thing is the ratio of the value of the thing to the value of a dollar. When the value of dollars goes down prices go up. The value of dollars, like the value of e...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jul 21, 2018 10:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does the Fed purchase bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 1023

Re: How does the Fed purchase bonds

It is worth noting that the recent "quantitative easing" wasnt the same thing as open market operations. Yes it was. The Fed conducts two types of open market operations, temporary and permanent. QE purchases were permanent open market operations. See this statement from the FRBNY trading desk. It ...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jul 20, 2018 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does the Fed purchase bonds
Replies: 12
Views: 1023

Re: How does the Fed purchase bonds

This write-up from the New York Fed is a little dated. But the mechanics of their bond trading haven't changed much.

Open Market Operations

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Backdoor Roth IRA - Forbes: IRS Unlocks The 'Door' For High-Income Savers]
Replies: 7
Views: 1794

Re: [Backdoor Roth IRA - Forbes: IRS Unlocks The 'Door' For High-Income Savers]

Footnote 269 on page 289 of Conference Report To Accompany H.R. 1 says: Although an individual with AGI exceeding certain limits is not permitted to make a contribution directly to a Roth IRA, the individual can make a contribution to a traditional IRA and convert the traditional IRA to a Roth IRA. ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Jul 12, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 13003

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Didn't the Fed just raise the Federal Funds rate to 2% in June and signal that there will be one more rate hike in 2018 than what had previously been anticipated? An uptick in T-Bill rates should not be too surprising. It isn't too surprising. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=krYq ...
by Oicuryy
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 13003

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

The discount rate at today's (7/10/18) 28-day T-bill auction was 1.850%. The bid-to-cover ratio was 3.16.
https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annce ... 0710_1.pdf

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Annuity and GLWB
Replies: 2
Views: 392

Re: Help with Annuity and GLWB

What is the current surrender value? I'm guessing its something like .94*484,539-.8*42,024 = 421,847. By doing so, the pre-tax totals would be: GLWB $263,323 and account value (using the guaranteed minimums): $495,437. I'm pretty sure you won't get both the GLWB withdrawals and the 495,437 account v...
by Oicuryy
Thu Jul 05, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 13003

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

Results of Treasury auctions are posted on the TreasuryDirect web site. https://treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press.htm Results of Federal Reserve open market operations (OMO) are on the New York Fed's web site. Permanent OMO https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/pomo_landing.html Tempora...
by Oicuryy
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9633

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

Here is what the Bogleheads wiki says about the spend-only-the-dividends withdrawal method. If you wish to keep your principal investment amount intact, you might consider using a method where you only spend the dividend and interest income from your investments. The advantage is clear, but like the...