Search found 1411 matches

by Oicuryy
Fri May 29, 2020 5:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed posts data on bond ETF purchases
Replies: 1
Views: 237

Fed posts data on bond ETF purchases

The Fed has released its latest monthly report on the Secondary Market Corporate Credit Facility (SMCCF). Here is the spreadsheet with transaction data. https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/smccf-transition-specific-disclosures-5-29-20.xlsx Links to other reports are here. https://www.f...
by Oicuryy
Sat May 23, 2020 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4806

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

sarabayo wrote:
Sat May 23, 2020 1:29 pm
If this is the case, shouldn't the thread topic be changed, since this warning from TIAA is not about a money market fund?
Right. The title should be: TIAA warns that Variable Annuity Subaccounts are Variable.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri May 15, 2020 9:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8628

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

According to the OP, they said: We'll continue to support clients on this old platform until it's retired from use in 2022 or earlier. They may be overstating their intent, but "retired from use" would seem to mean it will no longer exist, not just be less convenient or more expensive to use. Could...
by Oicuryy
Thu May 14, 2020 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve Spending
Replies: 6
Views: 903

Re: Federal Reserve Spending

No, that would not be a good source for getting a better understanding of the Fed. Wikipedia warns that conspiracy theories can be bad for your mental health. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Conspiracy_theory (The link in the opening post suggests that Chair Powell conspired with the heads of several ...
by Oicuryy
Thu May 14, 2020 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8628

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

If you mean a forced conversion from the mutual fund platform to the brokerage platform, then no - they can't do that. Yes, that's what I meant. I would no longer be able to access my shares directly with the transfer agent. However, they could shut down the web site and phone lines and impose a $1...
by Oicuryy
Thu May 14, 2020 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8628

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

Can someone ELI5 what is going on here? Vanguard offers two ways to hold their mutual funds. You can hold them through Vanguard Group Inc. (VGI) or through Vanguard Brokerage Services (VBS). VGI is the transfer agent (among other things) for Vanguard's funds. VBS is a broker. There are some differe...
by Oicuryy
Thu May 14, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL
Replies: 245
Views: 8628

Re: Vanguard Mutual Fund Platform EOL

whodidntante wrote:
Wed May 13, 2020 8:55 pm
Maybe if they send a telegram the people who still care about this will get it, too.
That would be me. If they shut down online access to my VGI account I still remember how to put an address on an envelope.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri May 08, 2020 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5274

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

ballons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 8:34 pm
Fed buys the old debt, bails out bondholders, and then issues new debt from the Fed. Where was the default?
So you think the Fed is going to keep rolling over corporate loans forever. We'll see.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri May 08, 2020 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5274

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

ballons wrote:
Fri May 08, 2020 4:44 pm
How do you default if the Fed is backstopping your old debt and new debt?
You default by not paying a debt.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Default_(finance)

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri May 08, 2020 4:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Problems with Xfinity Internet drops
Replies: 28
Views: 1634

Re: Problems with Xfinity Internet drops

Your modem is timing out waiting for a response from the modem at the other end. That is often due to interference of other issues on the line between the modems. Since your drop wire and inside wire have been replaced, the problem is likely further upstream. You might try posting logs, signal level...
by Oicuryy
Fri May 08, 2020 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5274

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

The Fed was created to be the lender of last resort after the Panic of 1907.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panic_of_1907

It's just doing its job.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed May 06, 2020 9:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding Inflation?
Replies: 10
Views: 1117

Re: Understanding Impending Inflation?

The price of something is the ratio of the value of the thing to the value of money. If the price of the thing is $5 then the value of the thing is five times the value of a dollar. Inflation is an increase in the general level of prices due to a decrease in the value of dollars. As the value of dol...
by Oicuryy
Sat May 02, 2020 4:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low

The present value of a 4% withdrawal (32 years from now) is ~$31,000/year. Is that correct? Yes, if you are using a 3.7% discount rate. =(0.04*2500000/31000)^(1/32)-1 = 0.037 By that same discount rate $2.5 million 32 years from now is worth $782,000 today. =2500000/1.037^32 = 781663 Either way the...
by Oicuryy
Sat May 02, 2020 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 1986

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

Before the Accord, the New York Fed had run the market for government securities with an iron fist. A government securities dealer who wanted to change the price of a government bond by even a minuscule fractional amount would call Robert G. Rouse (head of the Fed’s New York Trading Desk) for permi...
by Oicuryy
Fri May 01, 2020 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 1986

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

Before the Accord, the New York Fed had run the market for government securities with an iron fist. A government securities dealer who wanted to change the price of a government bond by even a minuscule fractional amount would call Robert G. Rouse (head of the Fed’s New York Trading Desk) for permi...
by Oicuryy
Fri May 01, 2020 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations
Replies: 106
Views: 6538

Re: The Collapse in Global Inflation Expectations

Deflation would be a dream come true. Just put the money under the mattress and sleep well at night. No need to gamble , speculate , invest in the stock market. Actually it is the exact reason that deflation is scary for economic growth as it changes the behavior and instead of the money circulatin...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 29, 2020 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Quantitative Easing
Replies: 22
Views: 2106

Re: Help me understand Quantitative Easing

I am curious why you changed the example to me as an individual rather than the bank? I assume the same would apply to a company or a bank who held a bond? Yes, anyone can sell a bond. Remember our discussion of bank-created money? https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=243889 I used S_Tr...
by Oicuryy
Tue Apr 28, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low

Help me understand why you calculated that $2.1MM equates to $6.7MM in 2052 dollars. Am I missing a correlation between inflation increases also increasing my portfolio? My apologies if this is a dumb question. If something costs $1 today and prices increase at a rate of 3.7% per year for 32 years ...
by Oicuryy
Tue Apr 28, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low
Replies: 21
Views: 2256

Re: Present Value for Retirement Withdrawals Seems Awfully Low

Is that $2.2 million real or nominal? A 4% real withdrawal at 1.3% real return will last about 30 years. =NPER(0.013,-4,100,,1) = 29.95 A real annual withdrawal of $84,000 at 1.3% real return for 30 years would need about $2.1 million real to start. =PV(0.013,30,-84000,0,1) = $2,102,684.70 At a 3.7%...
by Oicuryy
Mon Apr 27, 2020 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Quantitative Easing
Replies: 22
Views: 2106

Re: Help me understand Quantitative Easing

How is new money created here? I'd think that the bank has a cash gain from the Fed purchase and a debit of the same value from selling the Treasury... Is there a misconception here that the Fed buys Treasuries directly from banks? The secondary market for Treasuries is pretty big. This source puts...
by Oicuryy
Mon Apr 27, 2020 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand Quantitative Easing
Replies: 22
Views: 2106

Re: Help me understand Quantitative Easing

I know this is an older post but still confused on exactly how this works. Lets see if I understand this (My guess is no, lol) A bank purchases treasures at an auction. Here money flows from the bank to the Treasury and the bank holds the bond. The bank collects interest on the bond and when it mat...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?
Replies: 116
Views: 7854

Re: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?

what would be the best tool to track this? This is probably the best source. Click the hamburger icon near the chart to see the value of both the price index and the total return index as of the last close. https://us.spindices.com/indices/equity/sp-500 Yahoo is another source. https://finance.yaho...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3499

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

banks still don't find enough opportunities to make loans they consider worth the risk. Isn't that the same as saying borrowers are not willing to pay the interest rate that banks charge? Interest rates limit the demand for loans not the supply. If interest rates can limit money creation by limitin...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 25, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?
Replies: 116
Views: 7854

Re: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?

If my FIL still likes this product after all this, I am willing to personally take this bet as a last ditch effort using the above method and I’d play insurance company. He invests in the total return index, and we start tracking the price index aNd total return index together for 6 years. At the e...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 25, 2020 12:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3499

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

JonnyB , That doesn't sound right. If you had a chance to trade away an asset that was paying you 0.1% interest (IOR rate) for one that paid 3.25% or more (prime rate) wouldn't you do it? Even if you had to pay an additional 0.05% interest (effective federal funds rate) to borrow the asset to trade...
by Oicuryy
Fri Apr 24, 2020 3:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts
Replies: 41
Views: 3499

Re: Federal Reserve scraps transfer count limits on savings accounts

So the Federal Reserve came up with a new method of keeping these excess reserves from leaking into the economy and causing inflation. The Federal Reserve for the first time in 2008 started paying banks interest on their excess reserves. By varying the the interest rate, the Federal Reserve can thr...
by Oicuryy
Fri Apr 24, 2020 9:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does ["falling at an annualized rate of 40%..."] mean?
Replies: 14
Views: 1336

Re: What does ["falling at an annualized rate of 40%..."] mean?

It seems the BEA always reports GDP as a "seasonally adjusted annual rate". The "advanced estimate" of second quarter 2020 GDP will be released July 30. So I read that sentence as J.P. Morgan predicting that release will show a GDP of -40%. The BEA formula for calculating "average annual growth" is ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?
Replies: 116
Views: 7854

Re: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?

And he attached a screen shot that shows : Reinvestment of Dividends and Capital Gain Distribution: All dividends and capital gains distributions of the funds are automatically reinvested in shares of the distributing funds at their net asset value on the date of distribution. Dividends are not pai...
by Oicuryy
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?
Replies: 116
Views: 7854

Re: All the upside of the S&P with 10% downside protection "Free"?

Are you up for a little backtesting? Yahoo has downloadable daily closing values for the S&P price index and adjusted closing prices for VFINX, Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund. The adjusted prices account for the reinvestment of distributions from the fund. https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/hist...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 22, 2020 5:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?
Replies: 87
Views: 6004

Re: Does "Quantitative Easing" Lead to Higher Inflation?

Measuringworth.com has constructed a U.S. consumer price index back to 1774. https://i.imgur.com/HYtHULb.png It looks to me like all of the ups and downs in that chart were due to monetary policy. Consumer prices went up when the government created more money to pay for major wars. Prices went down ...
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 19, 2020 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative interest rates and Present Value
Replies: 19
Views: 968

Re: Negative interest rates and Present Value

When calculating the present value (PV) of a single future value (FV) or a stream of FVs, when the appropriate interest rate to be used in the calculation is negative, is that PV discounted or something else - perhaps accessioned or appreciated? :? Premiumed. When the present value is at a premium ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 18, 2020 5:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?
Replies: 58
Views: 3625

Re: Pension vs. simply investing? Is pension even worth it at all?

jlmitnick wrote:
Sat Apr 18, 2020 2:23 pm
the benefit is Average highest salary X .015 X number of years worked.
Are you sure that 1.5% does not increase with age? A 65 year old with thirty years of service should get a higher payout than a 55 year old with thirty years because his life expectancy is ten year shorter.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 15, 2020 9:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best Way to Watch British Mystery Shows
Replies: 59
Views: 4085

Re: Best Way to Watch British Mystery Shows

Search for your shows on https://justwatch.com to see which streaming services carry them.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6589

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

JBTX wrote:
Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:35 pm
It is my understanding that the fed only buys bonds and securities from banks in QE, not directly from consumers.
Not directly but through a network of brokers and dealers.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Apr 09, 2020 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6589

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

https://www.cnbc.com/id/100760150 Study this expanded version of the balance sheet diagram from that article. See if you can spot the newly created money. Banks aren't the only ones who sell Treasuries on the open market. Before central bank buys bonds After central bank buys bonds Customer of Bank...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FED purchasing corporate bonds? Delegating to BlackRock?
Replies: 11
Views: 1073

Re: FED purchasing corporate bonds? Delegating to BlackRock?

They are trying to prop up demand for corporate bonds to keep the prices from crashing? Is that the idea? Basically, yes. Or as the New York Fed puts it "to support credit to large employers by providing liquidity for outstanding corporate bonds". More info here. https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/...
by Oicuryy
Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6589

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Whether we should or not, MMT-based policy seems to be here de facto if not de jure . Thus it behooves Bogleheads as investors to understand what that may or may not mean for future interest rates and inflation. We are not there yet. The Fed still controls money creation, not the Congress. Don't be...
by Oicuryy
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Modern Monetary Theory
Replies: 97
Views: 6589

Re: Modern Monetary Theory

Alchemist wrote:
Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:52 am
Sovereign governments cannot default on debt held in their own currency (can still default on foreign currency loans) because it can print money to pay off its debts.
Would governments even issue debt in an MMT world? Why borrow money when you can just print it?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 05, 2020 9:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fed Backing All Money Market Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1753

Re: Fed Backing All Money Market Funds

Phineas J. Whoopee wrote:
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:22 pm
And if I may add, the Fed is attempting to keep the commercial paper and short-term muni markets liquid.
The Fed is also launching a Commercial Paper Funding Facility.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/comm ... g-facility

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 05, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fed Backing All Money Market Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1753

Re: Fed Backing All Money Market Funds

Here is the term sheet. https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/files/monetary20200323b4.pdf The "Funds" section defines what types of money market funds are covered. The "Eligible Collateral" section defines which securities in the funds are covered. Note that defaulted securities a...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?
Replies: 28
Views: 2797

Re: Is there a risk of US currency collapse with trillion-dollar stimulus?

ARoseByAnyOtherName wrote:
Fri Mar 27, 2020 11:12 pm
I don’t even know what a “currency collapse” means or what that would even look like.

Can you tell me?
It would look like the photos in this blog post.
https://freakonomics.com/2008/12/18/fre ... he-toilet/

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 27, 2020 6:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: RMDs May Not Be Required for 2020
Replies: 135
Views: 8525

Re: RMDs May Not Be Required for 2020

Has anybody actually looked at the passed bill? All these opinions and discussions above are just guesses if the actual bill is unclear. Or is the bill posted anywhere so some of us can go read it and see if any of this stuff is discussed? Just asking. See section 2203. https://www.congress.gov/bil...
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 27, 2020 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [CARES Act] Overview
Replies: 98
Views: 6429

Re: CARES Act [Stimulus bill]- text (and analysis) of bill

Here's a link to the COVID-19 relief bill, called the CARES Act. From the congress.gov website. Let the reading (and discussion) begin! https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/senate-bill/3548/text I think this text is more recent. https://www.congress.gov/bill/116th-congress/house-bill/748/te...
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 20, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement
Replies: 14
Views: 968

Re: Please "unpack" how a bond fund works for fixed income in retirement

Would someone be able to do a back of the napkin calculation what the fund will be worth based upon the chart below? I could, but it would be less useful than the napkin it was written on. Just project the recent yield, 1.93%, forward. 1 year: 1,000,000 * 1.0193 = 1,019,300 3 year: 1,000,000 * 1.01...
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 20, 2020 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Backstop Money-Market Mutual Funds 3/18/20
Replies: 38
Views: 2975

Re: Fed to Backstop Money-Market Mutual Funds 3/18/20

If I understand this correctly, the Fed program is to backup buyers of the paper rather than the MMFs themselves, so that the MMFs have a market to sell into when redemptions hit. That is my understanding, too. The Fed is loaning money to banks to finance their purchases from money market funds. Th...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 19, 2020 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the 2020 crash different from 2008, 2001 or 1987?
Replies: 61
Views: 5329

Re: Is the 2020 crash different from 2008, 2001 or 1987?

A few years back the Liberty Street Economics blog did a series of twenty-five posts called Crisis Chronicles.
https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkf ... hronicles/

Look for similarities and differences.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 19, 2020 12:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Backstop Money-Market Mutual Funds 3/18/20
Replies: 38
Views: 2975

Re: Fed to Backstop Money-Market Mutual Funds 3/18/20

So with this Fed backstop it's as safe as FDIC insurance for our bank deposits? No. This is not about protecting money market funds. This is about keeping interest rates low in the commercial paper market. The Fed will loan money to banks to buy the commercial paper that money market funds are forc...