Search found 1199 matches

by Oicuryy
Tue Jun 12, 2018 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Imagine a 10 year, 0%, noncallable loan
Replies: 49
Views: 2977

Re: Imagine a 10 year, 0%, noncallable loan

Say I was willing to pay up to 4% APR in interest. I would use the excel present value function like this. =PV(1.04^(1/12)-1,120,-1/120) 1.04^(1/12)-1 is the monthly interest rate corresponding to a 4% APR. 120 is the number of future monthly payments -1/120 is the fraction of my annual salary paid ...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jun 10, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What does "tap into" the Social Security trust fund mean?
Replies: 29
Views: 2265

Re: What does "tap into" the Social Security trust fund mean?

"Tap into the trust fund" means pay part of Social Security benefits from sources of federal government revenue other than Social Security taxes. Think income taxes and/or treasury bonds.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu May 24, 2018 11:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I need some math help-calculating interest savings
Replies: 31
Views: 1608

Re: I need some math help-calculating interest savings

Total interest on original loan. 360*1157 - 235200 =181320 Total interest on recast loan. 360*959.51 - 194506.99 = 150916.61 I calculate that prepaying 240.49 in principal each month would pay off the recast loan in 242 months. So total interest on recast loan with principle prepayments. 242*1200 - ...
by Oicuryy
Thu May 17, 2018 3:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRMAA automatically determined/updated annually?
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: IRMAA automatically determined/updated annually?

As I read
Sec. 1839(i)(5)
, the 2020 IRMAA thresholds are scheduled to be adjusted by the increase, if any, in the CPI from August 2018 to August 2019. The thresholds for 2020 will be published in September 2019. But by then it will be too late to change your 2018 MAGI.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu May 17, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRMAA automatically determined/updated annually?
Replies: 6
Views: 565

Re: IRMAA automatically determined/updated annually?

Sec. 1839(i)(4)(B)(i) (i) In general.—In applying this subsection for an individual’s premiums in a month in a year, subject to clause (ii) and subparagraph (C), the individual’s modified adjusted gross income shall be such income determined for the individual’s last taxable year beginning in the s...
by Oicuryy
Sat May 12, 2018 6:05 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Found cause of posts getting lost (not posted)
Replies: 13
Views: 1160

Re: Found cause of posts getting lost (not posted)

There is a warning, but it is not particularly eye catching.

Image

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6675

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

dbr wrote:
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:02 pm
Thanks. In that analysis variance is a quadratic in the return, hence a parabola.
You're welcome. I'm sure nisiprius is right about the name of the curve.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Apr 29, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?
Replies: 114
Views: 6675

Re: NAME for the MPT or CAPM-based diagram with the hyperbola and tangent line?

I doubt any of the curves involved on these charts are either hyperbolas or ellipses. Is there some reason the curves should be described by those exact mathematical figures? This guy calls it a parabola and gives an equation for it. http://www.calculatinginvestor.com/2011/06/07/efficient-frontier-...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 25, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help poke holes? Roger Ibbotson recommends a Fixed Index Annuity as a partial bond alternative.
Replies: 23
Views: 1713

Re: Help poke holes? Roger Ibbotson recommends a Fixed Index Annuity as a partial bond alternative.

So he wrote an article that pretends to be about "a generic large cap equity FIA" when it is really about backtested results for one specific FIA. I wouldn't go that far. The skeptic in me suspects that the interest crediting method AnnGen created for Ibbotson's paper would (or would have) outperfo...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 25, 2018 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help poke holes? Roger Ibbotson recommends a Fixed Index Annuity as a partial bond alternative.
Replies: 23
Views: 1713

Re: Help poke holes? Roger Ibbotson recommends a Fixed Index Annuity as a partial bond alternative.

I know there’s one called New Heights 9 from a prominent, large Insurance company. FYI, The NYSE Zebra Edge® Index won Structured Retail Product’s Americas Award 2017 for Proprietary Index of the Year, Americas. The index was developed with Roger Ibbotson and Zebra Capital, and is exclusively avail...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 18, 2018 10:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Theoretical question. What would happen if 100% of investors are buy and hold.
Replies: 19
Views: 2231

Re: Theoretical question. What would happen if 100% of investors are buy and hold.

What would happen if 100% of investors are buying and holding index funds? Then 100% of stocks would be owned by index funds. Would it still be profitable? Yes. The companies that index funds own would still be profitable and those profits would be passed on to the index funds' shareholders. How wi...
by Oicuryy
Mon Apr 16, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?
Replies: 89
Views: 4339

Re: How accurately can we measure INFLATION?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not measure inflation. It measures the change in the price of a basket of consumer goods and services. The price of a thing, in dollars, is the ratio of the value of the thing to the value of a dollar. A price of five dollars for some thing means the value of the ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 11, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: SPIA Return - Am I calculating this correctly?
Replies: 72
Views: 3104

Re: SPIA Return - Am I calculating this correctly?

If the OP has sufficient investment assets, it might work better over the 15 years just to withdraw $4000 per month from a 50/50 (or thereabouts) portfolio. I'd recommend at least a 25X portfolio for confidence, meaning at least $1.2M for this case. That does not look much different from a 44/56 po...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 31, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard: Transition to our new investment platform
Replies: 26
Views: 5390

Re: Vanguard: Transition to our new investment platform

I am happy with my current system. What are u guys choosing to do? Vanguard has not asked me to change yet, but I am choosing to stay with a mutual fund account. Vanguard has a brochure explaining the differences. https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/vbafqm.pdf This quote from the brochure is the reason I'...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 29, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?
Replies: 24
Views: 2102

Re: Rollover to Vanguard requires brokerage account?

The prospectus for the S&P 500 fund says you can hold shares directly or through a broker. You will probably have to be insistent and not take no for an answer. Vanguard fund shares can be held directly with Vanguard or indirectly through an intermediary, such as a bank, a broker, or an investment a...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 25, 2018 10:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What is the chance of a purchase decreasing in value at some point?
Replies: 10
Views: 894

Re: What is the chance of a purchase decreasing in value at some point?

Using Yahoo's adjusted closing price for VFINX, 628 of the last 9641 prices, 6.5%, have not yet seen a lower price.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Mar 20, 2018 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX
Replies: 25
Views: 3268

Re: Vanguard Managed Payout Fund VPGDX

The portfolio of the managed payout fund it too conservative. Since its inception on 1/17/14 the balanced index fund has outperformed it as have two of the life strategy funds. http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart?t=VPGDX®ion=usa&culture=en_US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A11%2C%22versi...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 18, 2018 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

The way banks create money was already understood in 1948. https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=21&v=OJMJ24U0Jp4 Don't overlook the links under that video. Here is the uncut version of that 1948 film. https://archive.org/details/0537_Banks_and_Credit_19_41_46_04 This guy understood that all ...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Here is a quote from the book alex_686 recommended earlier, Money: The Unauthorised Biography by Felix Martin Whilst all money is credit, not all credit is money: and it is the possibility of transfer that makes the difference. An IOU which remains for ever a contract between just two parties is not...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 17, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Would everyone please read Chapter IV in the 1963 edition of The Federal Reserve System : Purposes and Functions. Chapter IV starts on page 63 of the original printed book and on page 84 of 318 of the online reader and pdf versions. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?title_id=4518&filepath=/files...
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Is the Money Multiplier Theory obsolete? Pretty much, yes. Under the fractional reserve theory of banking deposits are a multiple of reserve balances created by the central bank. Central banks can control the amount of deposits by changing reserve requirements and/or changing the amount of reserves...
by Oicuryy
Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

OnTrack wrote:
Fri Mar 16, 2018 12:05 am
How does this chart not support the multiplier theory?
The chart is the ratio of a measure of the money supply, M2, to the amount of reserve balances banks have at the Fed. The fractional reserve theory claims that ratio is fixed. The chart shows that the ratio is not fixed.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Member/customer deposits check for $100,000 into her savings. The left side of the balance sheet goes up by $100,000 when that check is deposited into the credit union's "bank" account or the credit union purchases an investment. The right side of the balance sheet goes up by $100,000 because the s...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 15, 2018 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

I'm not buying that money multiplier theory.

Image
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=j5tT

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

dm200, When a customer deposits a check at your credit union the check becomes an asset of the credit union and the increase in his checking account balance becomes a liability, right? I cluelessly claim the same thing happens when a customer gives your credit union an IOU. The IOU becomes an asset ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 15, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

If I could buy a bond without having money I would buy $100 billion worth of bonds and, at 1%, receive $1 billion dollars per year in interest. Let me re-word that slightly. If I could create money I would buy $100 billion worth of bonds and, at 1%, receive $1 billion dollars per year in interest. ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Grayfox, The $100 bills were assets of the bank. When you withdrew them you lowered the bank's assets and its liabilities (your account balance). But the bank still has your IOU as an asset. So its assets and liabilities are back to where they were before you got the loan. From the bank's point of v...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Wikipedia has a general description of the Capital Adequacy Ratio. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_adequacy_ratio Details for FDIC-insured banks are in 12 CFR 324. https://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/rules/2000-4350.html Reserve balances held at Federal Reserve banks have a weight of zero in...
by Oicuryy
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

From article about how the U.S. Fed bought $1.25 trillion of mortgages in 15 months. https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2010/08/26/129451895/how-to-spend-1-25-trillion 'The Fed was able to spend so much money so quickly because it has a unique power: It can create money out of thin air, whenever it...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 11, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Here are direct links to the .pdf versions of the Bank of England articles referred to by the article linked to in the opening post. Money in the modern economy: an introduction https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-in-the-modern-economy-an-introduction.pdf?...
by Oicuryy
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

If the credit creation theory of banking is true, what are the banks doing with all the deposited money they receive? When you deposit money at a bank you are actually making a loan to the bank. The money you loan to the bank becomes an asset of the bank. In return the bank gives you an IOU promisi...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 10, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

This guy claims to have settled the question of whether or not individual banks can create money out of thin air.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 1914001070

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 10, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Who does the bank write an IOU too, is it the mortgage borrower before he takes the loan? The money that the borrower gets is an IOU from a bank. Essentially any money that is not paper currency is an IOU from a bank. Bank-written IOUs function as money because they are easily transferred at face v...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 10, 2018 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How banks create money, not from deposits
Replies: 132
Views: 11434

Re: How banks create money, not from deposits

Yes, deposits at banks are essentially IOUs written by banks. When a bank makes a mortgage loan it trades an IOU that it writes for an IOU that the mortgage borrower writes. The bank still has to honor its IOU even if the borrower fails to honor his IOU. So the bank does lose if a borrower defaults....
by Oicuryy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely
Replies: 21
Views: 3345

Re: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely

That was formula was derived by gummy, a.k.a Peter Ponzo, about 10 years ago. He called it a Magic Sum. After all these years I finally realize it is just a present value calculation. The sustainable spending amount is the withdrawal amount that makes the sum of the future values of the cash flows,...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 30
Views: 3217

Re: Blank line doubling

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:30 pm
The referenced posts are from 2015: Sacramento, CA Area Chapter - Master Thread and Sacramento, CA Area Chapter - Meeting Notes Archive
It is not just old posts. The opening post in this thread from yesterday does it too.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=242145

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 30
Views: 3217

Re: Blank line doubling

Clicking this link will send this page to an HTML validator. It show end tag errors for img and br tags.

https://validator.w3.org/check/referer

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 4431

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

siamond's formulas for calculating SSR, the sustainable spending rate of constant annual withdrawals, can also be used in calculating the ending value of constant annual contributions. Just multiply the constant contribution amount by Gn/SSR.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 12
Views: 1914

Re: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

Thanks for the replies. It looks like there is no interest in this.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 12
Views: 1914

Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

Is there any interest in displaying math notation in bogleheads posts? Standard phpBB does not support any math markup. Alex is understandably reluctant to use non-standard phpBB. But we can still put some math markup in posts and then convert it to math notation after the post is displayed in our b...
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream
Replies: 9
Views: 996

Re: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream

You need to pick a discount rate. I used 5% in these excel functions.

=NPV(0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000)

=PV(0.05,10,0,PV(0.05,15,60000))

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help with avatar
Replies: 10
Views: 945

Re: Help with avatar

Sockpuppet wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:08 am
Thanks but I am still getting the error message: “The avatar’s filesize must be between 0 and 8 KiB.“
It's only 2.7kb; it works for me.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help with avatar
Replies: 10
Views: 945

Re: Help with avatar

Image
by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program
Replies: 13
Views: 1184

Re: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program

A monte carlo simulation might be a fun excel exercise. But I wouldn't bet my retirement on the results. Covert those nominal annual returns to real returns. Treat them as samples from a lognormal probability distribution and calculate their mean and standard deviation. Use the formula on this Wikip...