Search found 1160 matches

by Oicuryy
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely
Replies: 17
Views: 2336

Re: Computing a Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) concisely

That was formula was derived by gummy, a.k.a Peter Ponzo, about 10 years ago. He called it a Magic Sum. After all these years I finally realize it is just a present value calculation. The sustainable spending amount is the withdrawal amount that makes the sum of the future values of the cash flows,...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 27
Views: 2042

Re: Blank line doubling

LadyGeek wrote:
Tue Feb 20, 2018 7:30 pm
The referenced posts are from 2015: Sacramento, CA Area Chapter - Master Thread and Sacramento, CA Area Chapter - Meeting Notes Archive
It is not just old posts. The opening post in this thread from yesterday does it too.

viewtopic.php?f=10&t=242145

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Blank line doubling
Replies: 27
Views: 2042

Re: Blank line doubling

Clicking this link will send this page to an HTML validator. It show end tag errors for img and br tags.

https://validator.w3.org/check/referer

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 20, 2018 12:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating
Replies: 65
Views: 3856

Re: Sequence of returns risk while accumulating

siamond's formulas for calculating SSR, the sustainable spending rate of constant annual withdrawals, can also be used in calculating the ending value of constant annual contributions. Just multiply the constant contribution amount by Gn/SSR.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:13 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 11
Views: 1207

Re: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

Thanks for the replies. It looks like there is no interest in this.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Feb 17, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Using math notation in Bogleheads posts
Replies: 11
Views: 1207

Using math notation in Bogleheads posts

Is there any interest in displaying math notation in bogleheads posts? Standard phpBB does not support any math markup. Alex is understandably reluctant to use non-standard phpBB. But we can still put some math markup in posts and then convert it to math notation after the post is displayed in our b...
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream
Replies: 9
Views: 813

Re: Present Value of an Annuity or Social Security Stream

You need to pick a discount rate. I used 5% in these excel functions.

=NPV(0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000,60000)

=PV(0.05,10,0,PV(0.05,15,60000))

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:23 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help with avatar
Replies: 10
Views: 491

Re: Help with avatar

Sockpuppet wrote:
Fri Jan 26, 2018 12:08 am
Thanks but I am still getting the error message: “The avatar’s filesize must be between 0 and 8 KiB.“
It's only 2.7kb; it works for me.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 25, 2018 11:57 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help with avatar
Replies: 10
Views: 491

Re: Help with avatar

Image
by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program
Replies: 13
Views: 1074

Re: Calling all stats and math gurus...monte carlo in excel or online program

A monte carlo simulation might be a fun excel exercise. But I wouldn't bet my retirement on the results. Covert those nominal annual returns to real returns. Treat them as samples from a lognormal probability distribution and calculate their mean and standard deviation. Use the formula on this Wikip...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Bogleheads' Guide to Investing - Is this calculation correct?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1175

Re: [Bogleheads' Guide to Investing - Is this calculation correct?]

The table looks wrong to me, too.



Image



And the numbers given for the newsletter look wrong if the quote in this post is right.

viewtopic.php?t=13424



Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 20, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1828

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

The EMH assumes rational actors. Otherwise, it would be impossible for all information to be reflected in prices. Behavioral finance has demonstrated beyond a reasonable doubt that market participants, from individuals to 'smart money' institutions, suffer from a number of biases that prevent them ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 20, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean
Replies: 29
Views: 1828

Re: What "efficient market" does and doesn't mean

Define "rational". Every trade involves both a buyer and a seller. Which one of them is irrational?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have a government 457B?
Replies: 21
Views: 1051

Re: Do I have a government 457B?

Have you found out if the plan is open to rank and file hospital employees? If it is, it is a government plan. Non government 457 plans must file a Top Hat Plan Statement with the Department of Labor. You could check with the DOL's Public Disclosure Room to see if the hospital has filed one. https:/...
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 11, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do I have a government 457B?
Replies: 21
Views: 1051

Re: Do I have a government 457B?

Some info on non-government 457 plans is here.
https://www.irs.gov/retirement-plans/no ... tion-plans

Is your wife one of a small group of managers and highly paid employees? Is the plan open to most or all hospital employees?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 10, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?
Replies: 26
Views: 1622

Re: Running Maximum Withdrawal Percentage: Any data on this?

JCE66 wrote:
Wed Jan 10, 2018 11:20 am
I am trying to get my head wrapped around the formula he posted.
See http://www.financialwisdomforum.org/gum ... eturns.htm

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Jan 08, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.
Replies: 175
Views: 8979

Re: Help me understand question-less financial status (e.g. "2 comma club") threads.

Non-actionable (Trolling) Topics If readers can't do anything with the content of a topic other than argue about it, it does not belong here. Examples include: US or world economic, political, tax, health care and climate policies conspiracy theories of any type discussions of the crimes, shortcomi...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3012

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

Yes, imprecise wording on my part — Maybe the thread title is also imprecisely worded. Are you asking if the S&P 500 price index grows faster than GDP or if the S&P 500 total return index grows faster than GDP? The price index measures the market's growth. The total return index measures the growth...
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3012

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

3) Nearly the entire difference between market's long-term historical price growth (1.9%, in yellow) and its total return growth (6.3%, in green) is due to the compounding effect of reinvested dividends! 6.3% is not the market's growth rate. The market cannot reinvest dividends. The market already ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?
Replies: 31
Views: 3012

Re: Does the S&P 500 Grow Faster Than the Economy?

FRED has a telltale chart of stock market cap versus GDP. Sometimes the stock market grows faster than GDP. Sometimes it doesn't.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDDM01USA156NWDB

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 05, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Why does the main page look like this?
Replies: 6
Views: 711

Re: Why does the main page look like this?

This site was originally just an index to a Morningstar forum. Now the main page is an index to the Bogleheads forum. The look hasn't changed much in seventeen years.

https://web.archive.org/web/20010908123 ... ds.org:80/

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 22, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

After thirteen years I still say investment gains and losses should be measured in nepers.
http://discuss.morningstar.com/NewSocia ... 27295.aspx

Ron
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 22, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

But that is exactly what I meant to say. Moreover, pretty sure it’s correct. Dave Yes, I too am pretty sure it's correct without any mention of volatility drag. Reducing the gap between the arithmetic mean and the geometric mean is not the goal. That is just a side effect. The goal is to reduce the...
by Oicuryy
Fri Dec 22, 2017 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Random Walker wrote:
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:11 am
I’ve basically gone all in on mixing uncorrelated assets in my portfolio for the sake of bringing the geo mean closer to simple mean. Put another way, I’ve tried to minimize the SD for a given expected return.
Fixed that for you.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Dec 21, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Does volatility drag become a non-issue if we use continuously compounded returns to do mean-variance optimization? If continuously compounded returns are normally distributed then all the math for mean-variance optimization still applies, right? And the CAGR can be calculated directly from a mean o...
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 20, 2017 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

Volatility does not lower CAGR. Volatility raises the arithmetic average. Here is a common approximation.

Arithmetic average ≈ CAGR + Variance/2

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average
Replies: 92
Views: 5051

Re: Geometric Average vs. Arithmetic Average

( Yes , I could write a macro or function or whatever it is for it, doubtless using a loop... and try to figure out how to save that into a "normal" template in such a way that it would just be available in every sheet... and manage moving that template every time I use a different computer... and ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 13, 2017 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data
Replies: 56
Views: 5787

Re: Vanguard will use blockchain to share index data

Here is symbiont.io's description of how CRSP and Vanguard are using their software.
https://symbiont.io/solutions/index-data-distribution

Source code for a demo version of their software is here.
https://github.com/symbiont-io/assembly-sdk

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 09, 2017 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?
Replies: 8
Views: 982

Re: Bitcoin futures - trading them is good?

Thesaints wrote:
Sat Dec 09, 2017 2:19 pm
Which BTC price will those futures be based on ?
The Winklevoss' Gemini exchange.

http://cfe.cboe.com/cfe-products/xbt-cb ... in-futures
http://www.businessinsider.com/problems ... es-2017-12

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Dec 04, 2017 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency
Replies: 32
Views: 2409

Re: The "petro," a Venezuelan oil-backed cryptocurrency

This can't be a new idea. Someone must have already figured out how to replace just the coin creation part of bitcoin software with software that allows only a central bank to create and uncreate coins. All the rest of the transaction processing software in bitcoin would remain the same. Venezuela w...
by Oicuryy
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?
Replies: 64
Views: 3860

Re: Variable Annuity - Time to Surrender ?

Tough choice. Take a sure $200k in payments spread over the next several years with the possibility of an additional amount after the $200k has been received. Or take a sure $200k in a lump sum now with the possibility of earning gains or losses over the next several years. Flip a coin. If you don't...
by Oicuryy
Sat Nov 18, 2017 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances
Replies: 46
Views: 2205

Re: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances

I am interested in this post as well as the excellent summaries as we have an annuity that we are struggling with that is similar in some ways. If I take this summary one step further would this be correct? - you give them $100K at age 54 - 11 years later you are 65 - at 65 you can annuitize and th...
by Oicuryy
Fri Nov 17, 2017 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances
Replies: 46
Views: 2205

Re: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances

I think this is the right prospectus. http://vpx.newriver.com/GetContract1.asp?clientid=nwvpx&fundid=63890A173 The minimum benefit base after ten years is about $170k; 100k + 10 * 7k. It would only go higher when the Contract Value goes above $170k on a contract anniversary. That is not likely to ha...
by Oicuryy
Thu Nov 16, 2017 3:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying and Spending Bitcoin
Replies: 194
Views: 23274

Re: Buying and Spending Bitcoin

How much coffee can you buy with 0.006531 BTC? How many euros would it take to buy that amount of coffee at a regular coffee shop?

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Nov 16, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances
Replies: 46
Views: 2205

Re: Variable Annuity Help - Parent's finances

"Lifetime Withdrawl Percentages if Spousal Continuation Benefit is not Elected:" - I dont think spousal continuation was elected as I dont see that language in the policy summary: 45 up to 59.5 - 3% 59.5 through 64 - 4% 65 through 80 - 5% 81 and older - 6% Double check that. The phrase "Lifetime In...
by Oicuryy
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 3541

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

Poster grayfox went on a five page discovery of Bitcoin. Here is where he discovered the capacity problem.

viewtopic.php?p=3504009#p3504009

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Oct 29, 2017 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I compute year to date returns?
Replies: 10
Views: 1317

Re: How do I compute year to date returns?

Correct. But what is the YTD return? Do you want the year-to-date amount of return or the year-to-date rate of return? The YTD amount of return is $11,000. It would not make much sense to express that amount as a percentage of either 100k or 105k for the reasons you give. Rate of return is usually ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Oct 28, 2017 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How do I compute year to date returns?
Replies: 10
Views: 1317

Re: How do I compute year to date returns?

In your example, "the amount of gains one has made to date since the beginning of the year" is (110000-100000)+(6000-5000) = $11,000.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Oct 22, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% Stocks?
Replies: 7
Views: 891

Re: 100% Stocks?

From Damodaran's data.



Image



Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Sep 03, 2017 4:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Xfinity Mobile
Replies: 96
Views: 11397

Re: Xfinity Mobile

Comcast reportedly plans to offer BYOD by the end of the year.
http://www.fiercewireless.com/wireless/ ... er-remains

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Aug 22, 2017 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why do we consider cash flow from rentals but not our own homes?
Replies: 89
Views: 6655

Re: Why do we consider cash flow from rentals but not our own homes?

IMO, you should be charging yourself $2000 rent. That is what you would have to pay if you did not own the house. You have a real estate asset worth $290k. Your cash flow for this asset is $2000 rent as income and property taxes, insurance and maintenance as expenses. You have a debt of the amount o...
by Oicuryy
Sat Aug 19, 2017 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: XIRR - Non-reinvested dividends
Replies: 43
Views: 4485

Re: XIRR - Non-reinvested dividends

How many years are there in the 366 day period from 12/31/15 to 12/31/16? XIRR always uses 365 days as the length of a year. So XIRR calculates 366/365 = 1.0027397 years in that period. To annualize the 12.5333% gain over that period, XIRR calculates 1.125333^(1/1.0027397) -1 = 12.4970% annual rate ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Aug 19, 2017 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 37888

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Yup. And to take it back to gold: originally, gold was the ownership certificate! I tend to think of gold as a real thing, not an imaginary thing like bitcoin and dollars. No system of recording ownership is required. Possession of the actual gold is proof enough of ownership. The value of gold, li...