Search found 1294 matches

by Oicuryy
Thu May 02, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shouldn't VT be a zero sum game?
Replies: 24
Views: 1603

Re: Shouldn't VT be a zero sum game?

If I own both Facebook and TV I get my share of the total dollars spent on advertising regardless of where those ads are shown.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Apr 24, 2019 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?
Replies: 420
Views: 88248

Re: "Vanguard converting mutual fund accounts to brokerage?

Those of us who are perfectly content with the mutual fund only site, does anyone know if there is a date we'll be forced off? I check the prospectus occasionally for this language. Vanguard fund shares can be held directly with Vanguard or indirectly through an intermediary, such as a bank, a brok...
by Oicuryy
Sat Apr 20, 2019 5:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??
Replies: 29
Views: 2315

Re: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote:
Sat Apr 20, 2019 10:25 am
Let's say you invest $100 and you get a 100% return. You now have $200. Everyone knows that if you lose 50% you're now back to $100 where you started. But you didn't just lose 50% overall. You lost 100% of your gains.
No, you lost 50% of you gain and 50% of your starting value.

:wink:

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Apr 16, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Indexed Annuities
Replies: 22
Views: 1176

Re: Fixed Indexed Annuities

Can this product honestly guarantee the same returns as the stock market if it goes up but never lose me money if the market falls? No it can't. Fixed annuities accrue interest that is paid at maturity. Fixed indexed annuities calculate interest using a formula that includes some values from a mark...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 28, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Compound Interest Calculation
Replies: 29
Views: 1317

Re: Compound Interest Calculation

https://www.fdic.gov/regulations/laws/r ... topart1030

APY = 100*((1+Interest/Principal)^(365/DaysInTerm)-1)

Interest = Principal*((1+APY/100)^(DaysInTerm/365)-1)

1000 = 40000*((1+2.5/100)^(365/365)-1)

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 27, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds readily available with no loads
Replies: 30
Views: 2118

Re: American Funds readily available with no loads

The OP is right. A share class of American Funds is available from VBS with no load and no transaction fee. https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/other/bytype?FundFamilyId=6338&view=Name&pageNumber=1 This page from the prospectus for the Growth Fund of America shows the fees for nineteen share clas...
by Oicuryy
Sat Mar 23, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?
Replies: 47
Views: 2977

Re: Who discovered sequence of returns risk?

I was familiar with Bengen's important 1994 article on retirement withdrawal rates. Bengen looked at the historical record, but he seemed to draw almost the opposite lesson. Discussing the 1973/1974 "Big Bang" scenario of inflation + bad returns, he concludes, "The deleterious impact of the 1973-19...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 20, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time Weighted Rate of Return Question
Replies: 19
Views: 631

Re: Time Weighted Rate of Return Question

You can use the PRODUCT function in an array formula to calculate the cumulative return on a column of annual returns. Something like this. Remember to use Ctrl+Shift+Enter not just Enter.

=PRODUCT(1+D5:D9/100)-1

Ron
by Oicuryy
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Time Weighted Rate of Return Question
Replies: 19
Views: 631

Re: Time Weighted Rate of Return Question

Well, Vanguard's Life Strategy Growth Fund is a four-fund portfolio with an 80/20 asset allocation. Its calendar-year time-weighted rates of return are here in the column labeled Total return.
https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... ve-returns

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 13, 2019 10:21 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Dumb question but it's been bugging me [What do the the topic icons mean?]
Replies: 12
Views: 2181

Re: Dumb question but it's been bugging me

https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/styles/prosilver/theme/images/forum_link.gif forum_link.gif https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/styles/prosilver/theme/images/forum_read.gif forum_read.gif https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/styles/prosilver/theme/images/forum_read_locked.gif forum_read_locked.gif https:...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 07, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

My guess is it would go something like this. FOMC lowers federal funds target rate range Fed board lowers interest-on-reserves rate and discount rate Banks lower prime rate Borrowers, attracted by lower rates, rush to banks :wink: Banks make more loans, increasing total deposits and total reserve re...
by Oicuryy
Thu Mar 07, 2019 11:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

acegolfer , Don't assume that banks loan out anything. Maybe these two articles will help you understand that loans can start from nothing. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/022416/why-banks-dont-need-your-money-make-loans.asp https://www.cnbc.com/id/100497710 Also, don't assume that ...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

Isn't that IOU an asset (receivable) to ABC and a liability (payable) to the borrower? And isn't IOU written by the borrower not by the bank? Unless the borrower walks out of the bank with paper currency in hand there are two IOUs involved when a bank makes a loan. The borrower writes an IOU to the...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

When bank lends money, what will happen to the reserve balance? Scenario. bank ABC has $100B in Fed reserve. Fed bought $10B worth of Treasury from ABC. ABC lends out this $10B. The Fed's liabilities go up by the $10b in reserves it just created. Its assets go up by the $10b Treasury it bought. ABC...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 06, 2019 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

I guess part of my confusion stems from the common trope that the Fed is "printing money" with open market operations. But it seems that all that is changing is the asset allocation of the financial institutions. For this discussion it might be helpful to use a narrow definition of money. The Fed c...
by Oicuryy
Wed Mar 06, 2019 10:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations
Replies: 26
Views: 1222

Re: Help me understand how the Fed's Open Market Operations

Banks automatically set their prime rate 3 percentage points above the Fed's target for the federal funds rate. When the Fed wants to lower rates they announce a lower target for the federal funds rate. These days they pay interest on reserve balances to keep the federal funds rate on target. (Reser...
by Oicuryy
Fri Feb 22, 2019 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1399

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

We'll know things are normal when the Fed tells us they are normal :) The Fed has told us the federal funds rate has reached its new normal. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments t...
by Oicuryy
Tue Feb 19, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1399

Re: When the Fed lowers interest rates by buying treasuries, what duration of treasuries does it buy?

The Fed normally uses temporary open market operations to manage short-term interest rates. They use short-term, typically overnight, repurchase or reverse repurchase agreements. Permanent open market operations are rarer. QE was a special case. https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_open...
by Oicuryy
Mon Feb 18, 2019 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: " Vanguard doesn’t bare its finances. Should investors care?"
Replies: 25
Views: 2351

Re: " Vanguard doesn’t bare its finances. Should investors care?"

I am posting these links here for future reference. They are not that easy to find. If anyone has a better source for the declarations of trust and bylaws of the Vanguard Delaware statutory trusts please post it. If you want to know what you really own, read these. Vanguard Index Funds - Declaration...
by Oicuryy
Fri Feb 15, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Fixed Linked Annuities
Replies: 15
Views: 728

Re: Fixed Linked Annuities

If, on the other hand, you chose the account settings to pay out dividends and you gave away all of your dividends, your account balance would track the S&P 500 price index , as most equity-indexed annuities do, and today it would be worth $23,291. That greatly overstates the likely return from an ...
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 14, 2019 7:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: vanguard managed payout fund
Replies: 19
Views: 2380

Re: vanguard managed payout fund

http://i67.tinypic.com/2z7pjdf.png I've been tracking the payouts from the three managed payout funds since inception. They got off to a bad start the first few years because the initial payouts were not based on a three-year average of daily account values. By 2012 the payouts were based on a full...
by Oicuryy
Sun Feb 10, 2019 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

Yes, I think it is for the S&P 500 funds. I downloaded the daily NAV values for SSO and for the S&P 500 index, then computed daily gains and losses. The 2x daily match is very clear (they actually do a really good job of it, except in 2007 where they screwed the pooch by losing a tiny bit every day...
by Oicuryy
Sun Feb 10, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

What is clear so far is that the 3x tracking for UPRO/SSO/S&P 500 is based on the *price* index, not on the Total Return index. Is it really that clear? The Direxion equivalent, SPXL, says it tracks the SPXT index which appears to be a total return index. http://www.direxioninvestments.com/products...
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 07, 2019 8:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

FRED has monthly data back to 1953 for the 20-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Rate. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GS20 Their daily data only goes back to 1993. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS20 Morningstar has a procedure to approximate price and return data from constant maturity rates....
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 07, 2019 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

If you want to be more conservative, feel free to just use the ^GSPC data without adjusting for dividend. I tried that. Compounding my simulated daily returns for the years from 1987 through 2018 gives an ending value of 40.65. Yours for the same period gives 141.20. For comparison, Yahoo's adjuste...
by Oicuryy
Thu Feb 07, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

The UPRO data is based on daily returns of VFINX and includes a 1% per year expense ratio (I subtract .01/250 for each day). I initially used ^GSPC as the data source, but forgot that I had switched to using VFINX because it accounts for the dividend. If you only use data from ^GSPC, your proxy wil...
by Oicuryy
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Thanks, EfficientInvestor and vineviz.

Minus 4% seemed like a lot to lose even on an annual basis. It made me think HEDGEFUNDIE should factor that into his simulated returns. But maybe not.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Feb 06, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 1767
Views: 120165

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

http://oi66.tinypic.com/2qc4bxs.png Could someone please explain Morningstar's alpha value to me? The screenshot shows Morningstar's MPT statistics for UPRO. I understand the beta of 3. If the index goes up 1% one day the etf will go up 3*1%. But do I then subtract 4 percentage points of alpha? 3*1...
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 31, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Welcome to the new forum layout
Replies: 54
Views: 6788

Re: Welcome to the new forum layout

A nit: the home page view=2 does not group the new forums correctly.
https://www.bogleheads.org/index.php?view=2&ndays=1

Ron
by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 30, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Letter on Indexing and Bogleheads
Replies: 46
Views: 4651

Re: WSJ Letter on Indexing and Bogleheads

Here is a telltale chart of AGTHX versus VFINX.

Image

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Jan 27, 2019 12:28 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020
Replies: 22
Views: 3053

Re: IRMAA Thresholds in 2020

If I keyed them right these are the CPI numbers so far. month CPI-U 2017-2018 2018-2019 9 246.819 252.439 10 246.663 252.885 11 246.669 252.038 12 246.524 251.233 1 247.867 2 248.991 3 249.554 4 250.546 5 251.588 6 251.989 7 252.006 8 252.146 average 249.2802 252.1488 1.15% And my estimates of the t...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 26, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard stole $0.01?
Replies: 80
Views: 5749

Re: Vanguard stole $0.01?

I once proposed a share split to reduce the rounding error.

http://socialize.morningstar.com/NewSoc ... 83338.aspx

But see the first post by Russell in that thread.

It is interesting that the OP's statement shows five decimal places but only two or three are used.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Thu Jan 24, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity- good, bad, or ugly?
Replies: 18
Views: 1462

Re: Variable annuity- good, bad, or ugly?

It sounds like neither you nor your mother understands what she bought. I think this is the prospectus. It explains the product in excruciating detail. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/702184/000119312512162520/d291374dn4a.htm It sounds like she bought the Guaranteed Growth and Income Benefit...
by Oicuryy
Wed Jan 16, 2019 1:26 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Variable annuity, a success story?
Replies: 42
Views: 2130

Re: Variable annuity, a success story?

Sometimes it's fun to do IRR calculations on the cash flows. year age cash flo IRR 1 51 -50000 2 52 0 3 53 0 4 54 0 5 55 0 6 56 0 7 57 0 8 58 0 9 59 0 10 60 0 11 61 5000 12 62 5000 -14.19% 13 63 5000 -10.34% 14 64 5000 -7.63% 15 65 5000 -5.59% 16 66 5000 -3.99% 17 67 5000 -2.70% 18 68 5000 -1.63% 19...
by Oicuryy
Sat Jan 05, 2019 10:54 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Making it easier to track posts from the OP
Replies: 50
Views: 6028

Re: Making it easier to track posts from the OP

Which means some change to the layout is all that's needed, e.g. an extra input field or a selector to search on author vs keywords. Good idea. This bookmarklet alters the thread search box to be an author search. Run the bookmarklet then click on the magnifying glass to search for all the posts in...
by Oicuryy
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: Making it easier to track posts from the OP
Replies: 50
Views: 6028

Re: Making it easier to track posts from the OP

I'm still hoping there will be an easy way to just see only the OP's posts in a thread. Still not quite what you want but this bookmarklet will remove all the posts on a page except those from the topic author. javascript:(function(){$(".post").not(":has(\".phpbb-showtopicauthor\")").css("display",...
by Oicuryy
Sun Dec 30, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7667

Re: Annuities objectively considered

The problem with what I was offered was that there was no death benefit. So if I bought today and died before age 65, my heirs would get zero. That is part of the deal. If you buy car insurance and don't have an accident you don't get your money back. If you buy homeowners insurance and your house ...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 29, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities objectively considered
Replies: 111
Views: 7667

Re: Annuities objectively considered

But in my mind, that’s still better than giving up complete and total control of your money, cosindering that the SPIA only paid 0.6% more over the course of a lifetime. Really? You think it is worth spending 8.45% of her monthly payout for the option to take excess withdrawals that would reduce he...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?
Replies: 24
Views: 2422

Re: Does anyone remember window/DOS batch file scripts?

Does this vbscript do what you want? Save it with a .vbs extension. Run it at a command prompt with the input and output filenames as arguments. For example. ecobee "c:\junk\ecobee.csv" "c:\junk\ecobeededuped.csv" Sub ecobee(infile, outfile) Const ForReading = 1, ForWriting = 2, ForAppending = 3 Set...
by Oicuryy
Mon Dec 17, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Getting your own money back: annuities vs. social security
Replies: 21
Views: 1568

Re: Getting your own money back: annuities vs. social security

cheese_breath wrote:
Mon Dec 17, 2018 10:24 am
Annuities are optional. Social security isn't (in most cases).
Everyone has the option to not accept the taxes taken from working people.

Ron
by Oicuryy
Sun Dec 16, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?
Replies: 14
Views: 3268

Re: Can Vanguard freeze mutual fund redemptions during times of duress?

From a Vanguard statement of additional information. Redemption of Shares (Other than ETF Shares) The redemption price of shares of each Fund is the NAV per share next determined after the redemption request is received in good order, as defined in the Fund’s prospectus. Each Fund can postpone payme...
by Oicuryy
Sat Dec 08, 2018 1:59 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What's my pension rate of return?
Replies: 4
Views: 738

Re: What's my pension rate of return?

I get an IRR of 6.9% from these fifty-five cash flows. -11 -11.22 -11.4444 -11.673288 -11.90675376 -12.14488884 -12.38778661 -12.63554234 -12.88825319 -13.14601825 -13.40893862 -13.67711739 -13.95065974 -14.22967293 -14.51426639 -14.80455172 -15.10064276 -15.40265561 -15.71070872 -16.0249229 -16.345...
by Oicuryy
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve
Replies: 78
Views: 7208

Re: In Search of... the Inverted Yield Curve

geospatial wrote:
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:51 am
But does anybody know if there's a place that shows the maturities of their holdings within those categories?
SOMA holdings are here.
https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/soma ... ccholdings

Ron
by Oicuryy
Mon Nov 19, 2018 7:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New HD tv and non HD stations
Replies: 27
Views: 1361

Re: New HD tv and non HD stations

From the user manual. Eco Sensor adjusts the brightness of the TV automatically. This feature measures the light in your room and optimizes the brightness of the TV automatically to reduce power consumption. If you want to turn this off, go to > Settings> General > Eco Solution > Ambient Light Detec...
by Oicuryy
Wed Nov 14, 2018 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can someone explain specifically how the "bucket" approach to retirement withdrawals is supposed to work?
Replies: 75
Views: 5397

Re: Can someone explain specifically how the "bucket" approach to retirement withdrawals is supposed to work?

That is a trade secret. You have to pay an investment manager an AUM fee to use their proprietary system to move money from bucket to bucket for you. None of them will tell you the details.

Ron