Search found 222 matches

by Kulak
Wed Aug 19, 2015 2:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice
Replies: 70
Views: 9807

Re: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice

market timer wrote:... give examples of the type of work you'd like to do. Spend some time on LinkedIn or other jobs sites ...
I have no idea and feel I need a few more years of school before I can have an idea. I've looked a bit and my impressions are:

- Most jobs seem to fall broadly into two categories: "modeling" (PDEs, dynamical systems, etc), and "statistics" (machine learning, actuarial/financial math, "data analysis", etc).
- Nearly all employers don't care whether you studied math, applied math, CS or physics.
- Nearly all want programming proficiency, esp C/C++ and Matlab.

Sound about right?
by Kulak
Wed Aug 19, 2015 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice
Replies: 70
Views: 9807

Re: Mathematicians or statisticians here? Seeking your advice

Update :beer I completed the lower division sequence (Calc2-Calc3-LA-ODEs) plus Undergrad Analysis 1 with straight As. One unexpected joy of this is having met some fantastic people; I expected mostly bland or weird personalities. Ability? :confused My analysis teacher is a postdoc applied mathematician (calc of variations, PDEs, etc.) whose mentor was one of the best in the world. He volunteered (I didn't ask) that he thinks I have sufficient talent but am not working hard enough. The latter is surely true. (BTW, his salary is less than mine and I do tech support!) I've also been studying with a tutor who just completed a PhD in pure math (algebraic geometry) under one of the big names in that area. He too volunteered that he and his offi...
by Kulak
Wed Aug 12, 2015 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with ConsumerDirect Mortgage (on Bankrate)
Replies: 9
Views: 9198

Re: Experience with ConsumerDirect Mortgage (on Bankrate)

Grapevine ATL wrote:If you post Sale price, LTV, FICO, and your state, I can tell you what a competitive lender should be offering you.
- $345K
- 95% LTV
- FICO 701 Edit: 736
- Utah

Thanks
by Kulak
Wed Aug 12, 2015 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Experience with ConsumerDirect Mortgage (on Bankrate)
Replies: 9
Views: 9198

Experience with ConsumerDirect Mortgage (on Bankrate)

Or any thoughts about online discount mortgage brokers generally? I'm under contract for a house and planned to just borrow from USAA since my wife is a member, but they are many thousands of dollars more expensive than the quotes on Bankrate (plus I must pay a minimum of 0.75 points -- no zero-points option regardless of interest rate -- huh??) and can't close soon enough for my seller/broker to boot. http://www.cdmtg.com/Default.aspx http://www.bankrate.com/mortgage/mortgage-lenders/ConsumerDirectMortgage/8087 Has anyone used Consumer Direct Mortgage? I called and talked to a guy who seemed extremely knowledgeable and quickly gave me a detailed quote (including locale-specific fees which he looked up on the spot) for a much better deal, i...
by Kulak
Fri Aug 08, 2014 12:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: That sudden moment when Money is not a Problem
Replies: 33
Views: 8707

Re: That sudden moment when Money is not a Problem

Two comments: 1. Read my signature. Anything beyond about 85% portfolio survivability is a waste of resources, if not a form of self-deception. 2a. [This is FYI, not medical advice, talk to your doctor blahblahblah:] A very low-fat, starch-based, nearly-vegan, whole-foods diet (no cholesterol, no concentrated fats from animals or plants including olive oil, no sugary junk -- only vegetables, fruits, grains, tubers, and limited amounts of skim dairy and egg whites) has been demonstrated in peer-reviewed journals like NEJM, Lancet, Am J Cardiology, etc. to arrest and even reverse the progression of cardiovascular disease, type-2 diabetes and prostate cancer, and is the exact diet eaten by several of the longest-lived, healthiest populations o...
by Kulak
Sat Aug 02, 2014 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3372

Re: How to stop collection for an invalid debt

fposte wrote:Additionally, Kulak should ask the library to check if it's on the shelf; they'd be able to check acquisition date as they do, and if it was returned but not checked back in (which is often what happens), that'll be more illuminating than the database.
They did this back when I talked to them the first time. If I remember right they checked both the stacks at its call # and all the "sorting" shelves. Book is definitely gone, and I definitely don't still have it.
by Kulak
Sat Aug 02, 2014 9:19 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3372

Re: How to stop collection for an invalid debt

It's a college library FWIW. When the first collector called me, I went back and forth with the library manager, was polite but insisted that I'd returned it and that the replacement charge was many times the fair value of the book, but she wouldn't budge. Wouldn't write it off, or settle for less than the bill, or let me buy them a replacement copy.
by Kulak
Fri Aug 01, 2014 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3372

Re: How to stop collection for an invalid debt

Watty wrote:If it is a valid debt they can still take you to court.
This is really my question. If they did, how would the judge rule?
by Kulak
Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3372

Re: How to stop collection for an invalid debt

No, but the library circulation staff did when I talked to them years ago. I know I don't have it; not only do I remember the trip to return it, but I ransacked my place looking for it just in case, and have even moved (handling every single item I own) since then.
by Kulak
Fri Aug 01, 2014 11:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to stop collection for an invalid debt
Replies: 31
Views: 3372

How to stop collection for an invalid debt

I have a library fine for a book I know I returned several years ago. The library didn't attempt to contact me about it, although they had a phone number and email address for me, before sending it to collections. So the first I heard of it was from a collector. "Can you prove you returned the book?" "They don't give you a receipt." Ended up talking to the library and they refused to stop the collection action. (Also wouldn't budge on the exorbitant replacement charges: 10x what it sells for on Amazon, Alibris and similar sites in excellent condition.) So basically I stalled the collector ("Hang on, I'm still trying to get in touch with the right person at the library's circulation desk..." etc.) until he went ...
by Kulak
Mon Dec 02, 2013 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: should my nephew apply to a top-tier university?
Replies: 274
Views: 19229

Re: should my nephew apply to a top-tier university?

At Oxford and Cambridge, in arts at least, the tutorial system still rules- -at least as far as I know. There are lectures, but 1 day every week you spend a couple of hours with your tutor, in the company of maybe 2-3 other undergrads (or just 1 on 1). You produce a written paper for that meeting: an undergraduate level essay in effect, *every* week. Wow, I didn't know that. It'd be hard to overstate the amount of envy I have for someone who got private tutoring by Oxford Don types at 19! One more question, and hopefully this isn't offensive (but is relevant to the question of the value of these schools): Do they have rampant political correctness there, as at Harvard? Would they fire their own president for making one perfectly admissible...
by Kulak
Sun Dec 01, 2013 9:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's getting very hard to ignore the noise
Replies: 98
Views: 10398

Re: It's getting very hard to ignore the noise

It isn't deciding if 50 or 60 or 70% is the right allocation based on what everyoen is predicting. Success is more likely on not deciding if folks are right or wrong, but focusing on staying the course with your approach (assuming you had a well thought out reason for choosing your asset allocation in the first place). This would make sense as one's asset allocation is based on one's willingness, ability, and need to take risk and has NOTHING to do with what is happening in the bond markets today or tomorrow. Explain how you determine your need to take risk without an expectation of future returns. If there is any "signal" to expected returns, it is current valuations. And current valuations say to expect 3% on stocks and 0% or l...
by Kulak
Tue Nov 26, 2013 4:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Average Yearly Raises?
Replies: 97
Views: 9476

Re: Average Yearly Raises?

5.9% nominal over 13 years. This year (my 14th) I got 0% due to substandard performance. Had I performed better, it would have been ~2%, for a 14-year CAGR of 5.6%.
by Kulak
Tue Nov 26, 2013 12:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: should my nephew apply to a top-tier university?
Replies: 274
Views: 19229

Re: should my nephew apply to a top-tier university?

Valuethinker wrote:The quality of education he would receive as an undergraduate at Oxford or Cambridge would be exceptional ... particularly in the liberal arts.
Could you elaborate on this? And are you distinguishing Oxbridge from even the elite American schools?
by Kulak
Tue Nov 26, 2013 10:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% stock returns this decade
Replies: 42
Views: 5436

Re: 4% stock returns this decade

cheese_breath wrote:If I knew what was going to happen I'd be a lot richer by the end of the decade.
I don't know what's going to happen, but I'm still going to be a lot richer by the end of the decade. 8-)
by Kulak
Fri Nov 22, 2013 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Americans need more financial education."
Replies: 56
Views: 3766

Re: "Americans need more financial education."

A large proportion of the population is financially ineducable. By that I mean that they lack the intelligence (mostly heritable) to understand these ideas or the conscientiousness (also highly heritable) to apply them consistently or both.

Imagine for a moment that you're massively dumber and more impulsive than you are. Imagine that reading the BH Wiki is as hard for you as the hardest math textbook you've ever studied. Think back to when you were young and had a craving to spend money on something, and imagine you feel that way all the time about toys, clothes, status symbols, etc. Now imagine your social circle is composed mostly of people like that.
by Kulak
Fri Nov 22, 2013 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to deal with the temptation to pullback on stocks
Replies: 35
Views: 3652

Re: How to deal with the temptation to pullback on stocks

Easy. I keep feeling this same temptation, and then I ask myself, "What if you do and then it goes up another 20%? Then what? Buy back in THEN? Never buy back in?" That dilemma is way more stressful to me than the thought of a downturn.
by Kulak
Fri Nov 22, 2013 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: What YTM would cause you to pile into long term TIPS?
Replies: 19
Views: 1909

Re: Poll: What YTM would cause you to pile into long term TI

It'd have to be pretty high, because I don't really trust the creditworthiness of the U.S. government. If I did, 4% (so that's what I voted). I consider that very high, but I'd be replacing my extremely aggressive AA -- I feel a high need to take risk.

You guys who voted 4%+, and not because you're pricing in credit risk, are delusional about future returns IMO.

I remember when TIPS were 4.25%! Didn't have any money then. :(
by Kulak
Tue Nov 19, 2013 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle-approved spend on a car?
Replies: 68
Views: 6826

Re: Bogle-approved spend on a car?

EmergDoc wrote:I don't value cars highly, so I don't spend much on them.
You're also a DOCTOR and thus have nothing to prove class-wise. That's something to consider too. If you have a profession or a college affiliation or similar that confers automatic upper-middle class, you don't need a fancy car and might even come off better driving something dressed-down, say a grungy Subaru or Grand Cherokee with accessories and stickers that suggest weekends spent rock-climbing, etc. Again, car choice is relative to one's overall status display.
by Kulak
Tue Nov 19, 2013 11:53 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Bogle-approved spend on a car?
Replies: 68
Views: 6826

Re: Bogle-approved spend on a car?

I think 25% of gross income is ridiculously high for most people. A lot of Bogleheads are missing the point that cars are an important status display, particularly for single men. I'd say to buy the cheapest car that won't hurt your ability to present yourself as whatever social caste you are aiming for. Don't drive something cheaper if it is visibly incongruent with the rest of your display. Above that you're probably not helping yourself; we all know a prole who went out and bought a new 'Vette, and we didn't start thinking of him as middle class (but did start wondering about his debt-to-income ratio and anticipating repo day). Personally, I think there are more effective ways to spend one's marginal "status display" dollar tha...
by Kulak
Tue Nov 19, 2013 9:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Survive depression in retirement: Don't rebalance from cash?
Replies: 14
Views: 2517

Re: Survive depression in retirement: Don't rebalance from c

I think some have suggested that you can get the rebalancing bonus by rebalancing only on the upside, i.e. selling stocks when the allocation gets too high but not buying them when it gets too low. While I am one who has suggested that rebalancing only on the upside might make sense, and Larry Swedroe is another, I don't relate, and I don't recall Larry relating either, such a strategy to anything about getting a rebalancing bonus. It is all about and only about risk management. Maybe someone else has run some numbers comparing strategies with this nuance and has some result or another. If you plan to rebalance only on the upside, does that enable a higher SWR? Seems like all the SWR simulations assume a fixed stock-bond split, and the fai...
by Kulak
Mon Nov 18, 2013 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A "What's Your Number" Follow-Up Question
Replies: 16
Views: 2869

Re: A "What's Your Number" Follow-Up Question

In calculating my net worth, I divide my Roth balance by (1 - expected tax rate) and then sum that with my trad and taxable. My "number" is then projected on that (pre-tax) basis. An accountant would probably say my true net worth is less than what my spreadsheet says.
by Kulak
Mon Nov 18, 2013 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Re: A math question ...
Replies: 57
Views: 3792

Re: A math question ...

I once got into a heated debate with a college instructor who insisted that a set was NOT a subset of itself. By every definition I'd ever read, a set IS a subset of itself, but not a proper subset of itself. Differences like this lead to confusion and frustration for students. My understanding (one of the mathematicians here can correct me) is that your instructor is right and you're wrong. You're allowing that for any predicate B without restriction, there exists a set P such that ∀x(x∈ P ↔ B (x)). The problem is, you just let B be the predicate "∉ P " and you've got Russell's paradox. BTW, I'm surprised how many people chose B -- the one choice that is false by definition and could be ruled out without even reading the questio...
by Kulak
Sun Nov 17, 2013 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a stock picker's year
Replies: 20
Views: 2703

Re: It's a stock picker's year

JoMoney, I wasn't so much putting forth a general rule as commenting on Netflix itself. I'm a subscriber because my wife watches legacy TV series on it. It has become a joke in our house that when we want to stream a movie, we first check Netflix (since it's free) and of course Netflix never has it, so then we pay the $2.99 on Amazon.

OTOH, I guess there's rumor of Netflix getting an exclusive deal to stream Disney content, making it the world's auto-babysitter.
by Kulak
Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: The Secret To Becoming A Retirement Millionaire
Replies: 15
Views: 3712

Re: Fidelity: The Secret To Becoming A Retirement Millionair

danwhite77 wrote:Yeah, but I would add to this "and invest in low cost Vanguard funds, not Fidelity funds".....
When I had a Fido 401k, some Spartan funds had lower ERs than their corresponding Vanguard funds. (Of course, I doubt the Spartans would exist without Vanguard, and I remember right Fidelity was subsidizing them.) Also, FDIVX (which I owned) had an ER of 1% but consistently trounced VGTSX.
by Kulak
Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity: The Secret To Becoming A Retirement Millionaire
Replies: 15
Views: 3712

Re: Fidelity: The Secret To Becoming A Retirement Millionair

To steal the old vintner's joke:

"Start as a retirement multimillionaire?"
by Kulak
Sat Nov 16, 2013 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's a stock picker's year
Replies: 20
Views: 2703

Re: It's a stock picker's year

Wow, anybody else tempted to short Netflix at 290x earnings?
by Kulak
Fri Nov 15, 2013 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?
Replies: 167
Views: 15253

Re: How many funds do you have in your portfolio?

Four funds:
Vanguard World ex-US (VEU) (taxable)
Vanguard US small-value (VBR) (trad)
WisdomTree int'l small-div (DLS) (trad)
WisdomTree EM small-div (DGS) (Roth)

In fact, those are the only significant assets I own.
by Kulak
Thu Nov 14, 2013 6:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull-ups and Push-ups
Replies: 678
Views: 182127

Re: Pull-ups and Push-ups

but not so great for things like joint strength You might be surprised how that joint strength would improve with an intelligent barbell program. I used to have frequent knee pain from just squatting down or stepping up onto a 2-foot ledge; today I do 300lb barbell back squats without pain. I'm only criticizing the sentiment that says, "You don't need those scary freeweights to get strong, all you need is your body." You can tell yourself that until you go to lift a piece of furniture or put a heavy box up on the top shelf. it is almost impossible for me to gain muscle Hypertrophy is a tangent, but: You've never done it right. Even stoptothink will back me on this. I myself was at BMI 21 at one point, looked emaciated and couldn'...
by Kulak
Thu Nov 14, 2013 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pull-ups and Push-ups
Replies: 678
Views: 182127

Re: Pull-ups and Push-ups

I'm going to be a dissenter here and say that BW exercise generally sucks. For a man, the only one challenging enough is pull-ups, and pull-ups are too hard for 99% of women. Bodyweight squats and lunges are too easy unless you're ridiculously out of shape, and pistol squats are too tricky/goofy to let the trainee dial in the form and then build strength progressively. (I can BB squat almost 2xBW but can't do a single strict pistol squat.) Push-ups might be challenging for a rank beginner but the gains will be exhausted within a few weeks for both men and women. Again, the only way to make them more challenging is to make them goofy and unstable. There's no overhead pressing movement possible at all (unless you can do handstand push-ups!), ...
by Kulak
Thu Nov 14, 2013 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25
Replies: 331
Views: 55030

Re: Shiller P/E 10 hits 25

umfundi wrote:If I may ask, when did CAPE and Shiller PE10 become popular as forecasting metrics?
Funny, back on the M* board there was a poster named "Hocus" who went on and on about PE10, hijacking every other thread, until he got banned. I wonder if he's lurking and feels vindicated.
by Kulak
Wed Nov 13, 2013 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If want a good laugh watch this [advisor] video
Replies: 41
Views: 5843

Re: If want a good laugh watch this video

livesoft wrote:So much for full disclosure, he acted as if this advice
Nov 2007 - get out
July 2009 - get in

was particularly great, but from March 2009 to mid-June 2009 the market was up over 37%. And in fact it was up 20% at some point in March 2009 alone.

But he didn't talk about missing that rally.
So overall he avoided an almost 40% loss. Sounds like he earned his money to me.
by Kulak
Wed Nov 13, 2013 1:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: discretionary spending per month
Replies: 54
Views: 7586

Re: discretionary spending per month

travellight wrote:My saving rate is about 80%.
:shock:
by Kulak
Wed Nov 13, 2013 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected Returns by Antti Ilmanen
Replies: 55
Views: 9239

Re:

Cut-Throat wrote:
Cut-Throat wrote:So a question for someone that has read and understands this book.

What's the expected return of the Vanguard Target Retirement Income Fund? Over the next 10,20,30 and 40 years?

I'll plug the answer into my Plan. :D
This was serious question. Anybody?
I haven't read this book, but I gather that the best predictors of future returns are:
Bonds: today's 10yr YTM
Stocks: Gordon equation

So plug that into your spreadsheet and weep.

I too would like to know if this book changes anything.
by Kulak
Tue Nov 12, 2013 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Cheapest ETF in the World
Replies: 12
Views: 2045

Re: The Cheapest ETF in the World

If it's really 2.5, I'd like to gamble on it. But is this accurate? Yahoo shows GREK with a P/E of 8 as of Sept 29, and Global X's website has it at 24.4 as of Nov 5.
by Kulak
Tue Nov 12, 2013 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question
Replies: 73
Views: 7744

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question

Harry Browne's portfolio was informed by his general mistrust of government. Are you sure the convexity effect wouldn't get much bigger in extreme monetary events like the Volcker recession or the 1930-32 deflation?
by Kulak
Mon Nov 11, 2013 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The key to investment success
Replies: 33
Views: 4251

Re: The key to investment success

thx1138 wrote:Because a metric is noisy it is meaningless?
I guess meaningless is a strong word, but the implication is that P/E10, as opposed to P/E, prices in the "probability" of a recurrence of the 2008 financial crisis (yet neglects the 2002 dot-com recession because that's more than the-number-of-human-fingers-in-years ago). Basically, cue Nassim Taleb here...
by Kulak
Mon Nov 11, 2013 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The key to investment success
Replies: 33
Views: 4251

Re: The key to investment success

MindBogler wrote:CAPE 8/10, I like that. Based on estimated P/E for this year, the CAPE 8/10 is 18.79. 8-)
So basically the Shiller PE is >25 because of ONE year when E went to 0. Then count me as one of the folks who thinks it's meaningless. Hell, even a PE(median)10 would be better. Can I have a Nobel Prize in pseudoscience too?

Announcing the KULAK CAPE(8/10). Need to go backtest... Be back later.
by Kulak
Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The key to investment success
Replies: 33
Views: 4251

Re: The key to investment success

Rick Ferri wrote:I'm not a fan of Shiller's CAPE because it uses earnings from 10 years ago to value stocks today, and because one bad year of corporate earnings year over the last ten years can throw the ratio way off for a long time. That's what happened in 2008.
We need, like, a Cyclically Adjusted Price to Root-Mean-Square E10, or maybe a CAPE(8/10) (E10, highest and lowest years discarded), or something. Engineers who do power transmission, signal processing, coding, etc. all have better ways (than arithmetic mean) of handling stuff like this, don't they?
by Kulak
Mon Nov 11, 2013 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questioning role of Emerging Markets
Replies: 58
Views: 7527

Re: Questioning role of Emerging Markets

Which one's the more meaningful basis? I based my AA on total capitalization, so I have a little over 20% in EM, which I'm not entirely comfortable with.
by Kulak
Sun Nov 10, 2013 4:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We're not in an Equity Bubble
Replies: 61
Views: 9890

Re: We're not in an Equity Bubble

greg24 wrote:Can't be a Bernubble, because then we'd have to change it to Yellubble in February.
I can think of an obvious generalization that will probably hold forever, but the post would get zapped in a heartbeat.
by Kulak
Sun Nov 10, 2013 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We're not in an Equity Bubble
Replies: 61
Views: 9890

Re: We're not in an Equity Bubble

berntson wrote:Fama claims that he doesn't know what a bubble is--I'm beginning to have sympathy with that view.
Perhaps, like justice Potter on obscenity, I can't define it -- but I know it when I see it. And it's the mother of all epic bubbles on steroids.

That reminds me: using the emdash -- where a simple comma would suffice -- is yet another example. It's the written equivalent of putting a "da-da-DAAAAAAAA!" soundtrack to the sentence.
magneto wrote:The difficulty is if not stocks then what? Other asset classes are hardly appealing.
I suppose that if nothing's cheap, then by definition cash is cheap. Or if feeling lucky you can go short.
by Kulak
Sun Nov 10, 2013 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We're not in an Equity Bubble
Replies: 61
Views: 9890

Re: We're not in an Equity Bubble

Of course we're in a bubble. Because "bubble" today simply means above-average valuations. It's used in the finance porn almost every day now. We of the MTV, ADHD, Adderall, Facebook, Twitter, etc. generation, We who expect even 60 Minutes and Sportscenter to be edited like a music video, with cuts every quarter-second and fast-pans and focus-pulls and bright flashes and graphics swirling into frame accompanied by "whoosh" sound effects, We are all so habituated to over-stimulation of all kinds that you LITERALLY have to club us over the head with hyperbole to get us to notice, like, anything. See also, "incredible" (slightly surprising), "on steroids" (slightly enhanced), "genius" (pretty c...
by Kulak
Thu Nov 07, 2013 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Efficient Frontier of Risk Tolerance
Replies: 74
Views: 5223

Re: Efficient Frontier of Risk Tolerance

I'm having fun trying to translate technovelist's posts into math. I think he's saying that 'utility' is totally ordered but not complete, therefore no bijection exists with (log) money. But from that he's inferring that no function (of any kind with domain 'utility') exists, and that's the fallacy.

I think.
by Kulak
Thu Nov 07, 2013 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A One Question Test for 100% Equities
Replies: 69
Views: 10199

Re: A One Question Test for 100% Equities

Not to mention: read my signature. How much are you willing to sacrifice for a retirement that could easily be undone by a black swan event like hyperinflation, government stealing your assets (see Cypress), your own premature death, etc.? In any one lifetime, the odds of a non-financial failure mode are probably 1 in 5. Years ago I worked with a Russian who had emigrated in 1999 and was explaining to him my retirement plan, and he thought I must be joking, just laughably naive to assume political/institutional continuity out at 30+ years.

Pseudocertainty is the quintessential Boglehead cognitive bias. Assume your retirement can never be more than about 80% "safe" regardless of how you allocate or withdraw.
by Kulak
Wed Nov 06, 2013 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A One Question Test for 100% Equities
Replies: 69
Views: 10199

Re: A One Question Test for 100% Equities

EmergDoc wrote:Low rates of return change the game completely. [...]

I wrote about it this Spring.

http://whitecoatinvestor.com/making-dif ... d-returns/
Excellent piece. You at least get it.
by Kulak
Mon Nov 04, 2013 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A One Question Test for 100% Equities
Replies: 69
Views: 10199

Re: A One Question Test for 100% Equities

At 36 I hold 100% equities with overwhelming small-value and int'l/EM tilts. And yes, "back in 2008" I held firm and lost over half my net worth (which, admittedly, was less than half of my current number). And yes, I'm dis pleased with the '13 run-up and expecting to give back quite a bit of my gains soon. You guys are making a tacit assumption that I don't share: that you can make it to retirement on today's expected returns with a Ben Graham 25-75% AA. Right now the Gordon equation predicts a 3.0-3.5% real return for stocks, and fixed income is priced for negative real returns. Look around at 60-70yo people today and it's obvious that the true risk is ending up with not nearly enough money. A one-question test for 60% equities ...
by Kulak
Wed Oct 30, 2013 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 2013/2014 Honda accord - any better values?
Replies: 66
Views: 33157

Re: 2013/2014 Honda accord - any better values?

futureman wrote:I need a quiet car though since I am hard of hearing.
I recently test-drove a bunch of sedans in that class, and I recall the Accord being significantly noisier (road/wind and engine) than the others. I drove both an I4 and a V6 and it was true of both, if I remember right. So if that's a big concern, also try the Ford Fusion, Nissan Altima, Toyota Camry, etc. This is not a knock on Honda's build quality, which I consider second to none.
by Kulak
Wed Oct 23, 2013 10:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question
Replies: 73
Views: 7744

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio question

In the rationale of the PP, the bond slice is meant to benefit from deflation. Ideally you'd want 30-year zeros or something like that -- nominal and very long.
by Kulak
Mon Oct 21, 2013 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do I need bonds again?
Replies: 42
Views: 5951

Re: Why do I need bonds again?

Jebediah wrote:
Kulak wrote:I own US SCV + EAFE SCV + EM SCV
What funds, may I ask?
Here's a thread where I discussed it. I just replaced DES with VBR (cost me >$900 in spreads, ouch) and will probably also replace DLS with VSS. VSS is nominally small(-blend), not small-value, but its style box is similar enough to DLS and the other ETFs in that class that it's probably best to just take the 0.3% cheaper ER. Plus it's more diversified in terms of owning a greater number of companies, I think.