Search found 399 matches
- Sat Feb 17, 2024 7:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: What is your favorite book?
- Replies: 187
- Views: 20524
Re: What is your favorite book?
Churchill: The Second World War
- Wed May 17, 2023 10:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Doctor says my mom should be in an assisted living facility but we can't afford it
- Replies: 174
- Views: 26785
Re: Doctor says my mom should be in an assisted living facility but we can't afford it
Definitely-get-Medicaid-and-you-should-be-able-to-get-a-home-health-aid-worker-to-visit-everyday.--Medicaid-should-pay-for-this-but-you-will-need-the-proper-paperwork.
- Sun Nov 06, 2022 10:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does YTM require that coupons are re-invested?
- Replies: 187
- Views: 17328
Re: Does YTM require that coupons are re-invested?
Kevin,-yes-SEC-Yield-is-different-than-YTM.--What-I-am-trying-to-tell-you-is-that-the-SEC-specifies-how-YTM-is-to-be-calculated-when-it-is-quoted-by-finacial-institutions.--Otherwise,every-company-will-have-their-own-YTM-rate
- Sun Nov 06, 2022 9:09 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Does YTM require that coupons are re-invested?
- Replies: 187
- Views: 17328
Re: Does YTM require that coupons are re-invested?
Kevin,--the-YTM-as-specified-by-the-SEC-is-calculated-as-racer986-describes.--I-believe-it-was-in-the-late-1980s-when-they-did-this-to-eliminate-confusion.--All-financial-institutions-which-quote-a-YTM-use-this-method.
- Mon Jul 05, 2021 2:42 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Correlation Between Earnings Growth and Share Price
- Replies: 8
- Views: 870
Re: Correlation Between Earnings Growth and Share Price
Returns are generated by dividends and price increase. Price increase in turn is driven by increased earnings and increased valuation (P/E). That is pretty much the Bogle model.
Since you are never going to sell your stock, your return will be the dividends you receive. A company that has increasing earnings is likely to increase their dividend payout. So you do profit from increased earnings. But you are forgoing the capital gain return.
Since you are never going to sell your stock, your return will be the dividends you receive. A company that has increasing earnings is likely to increase their dividend payout. So you do profit from increased earnings. But you are forgoing the capital gain return.
- Sat Jul 03, 2021 5:28 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
- Replies: 36
- Views: 2993
Re: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
SimpleGift,
I don't doubt that buybacks are a very significant source of demand and price pressure in the market. The only thing I would question in that statement is the phrase "long-term". I don't think the story ending in yet known.
Are corporations over-paying for their stock? Are buybacks a source of wealth redistribution?
I don't doubt that buybacks are a very significant source of demand and price pressure in the market. The only thing I would question in that statement is the phrase "long-term". I don't think the story ending in yet known.
Are corporations over-paying for their stock? Are buybacks a source of wealth redistribution?
- Sat Jul 03, 2021 3:51 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
- Replies: 36
- Views: 2993
Re: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
DaSId,
You have made a subtle change in the meaning of the word return. I would agree that if a corporation spends 4% of their capital on buybacks, that they have spent 4% of their money and somebody received it. But did stockholders receive a 4% return on their investment or their capital?
Stockholder returns are generated by dividends and price changes. If a buyback results in a negative reaction from the market, then there would be no positive return on investment for stockholders.
IBM is the poster child for buybacks not generating stockholder return. The return to shareholders from buybacks is complicated and you can't add money spent and assume it generates a positive return on investment for stockholders.
You have made a subtle change in the meaning of the word return. I would agree that if a corporation spends 4% of their capital on buybacks, that they have spent 4% of their money and somebody received it. But did stockholders receive a 4% return on their investment or their capital?
Stockholder returns are generated by dividends and price changes. If a buyback results in a negative reaction from the market, then there would be no positive return on investment for stockholders.
IBM is the poster child for buybacks not generating stockholder return. The return to shareholders from buybacks is complicated and you can't add money spent and assume it generates a positive return on investment for stockholders.
- Sat Jul 03, 2021 1:31 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
- Replies: 36
- Views: 2993
Re: Dividends + Buybacks: Show Me the Money - 1871 to 2020
Thank for your analysis. Your use of graphics is always impressive. Buybacks are certainly an important source of return. But there is an error in trying to add "buyback yield" to dividend yield and seemly imply that this is the return to shareholders. Unfortunately that is not correct. A 4% buyback yield does not result in a 4% return to shareholders. The path to return is more complex. Buybacks are very important buying pressure. In some years it is the largest component of buying pressure. If for some reason there is more selling pressure, then their is no return from price increase. Buybacks can also reduce share counts. But so far this is largely nulled out by new issuance--skewed to corporate executives. Buybacks also increa...
- Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:06 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Stock BuyBacks Effectiveness
- Replies: 29
- Views: 3164
Re: Stock BuyBacks Effectiveness
I need to correct my statement above. New issuance is not 97% of buyback volume; it is more like 40-50%.
What is true is that the reduction in shares does not contribute greatly to EPS growth. According to JPMorgan share reduction for the 20 years 1999-2019 contributed .4% to EPS growth while the total growth rate was 2.5%.
However new shares issued to company employees are often not sold immediately so the buying pressure of buybacks is considerable. Indeed it is often the leading source of equity demand.
How this all plays out is unknown. Since about 2008 buybacks have grown in importance and have been a significant source of increased demand.
Perhaps it results in a secular increase in valuation with some violent corrections.
What is true is that the reduction in shares does not contribute greatly to EPS growth. According to JPMorgan share reduction for the 20 years 1999-2019 contributed .4% to EPS growth while the total growth rate was 2.5%.
However new shares issued to company employees are often not sold immediately so the buying pressure of buybacks is considerable. Indeed it is often the leading source of equity demand.
How this all plays out is unknown. Since about 2008 buybacks have grown in importance and have been a significant source of increased demand.
Perhaps it results in a secular increase in valuation with some violent corrections.
- Thu Jun 10, 2021 7:07 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Stock BuyBacks Effectiveness
- Replies: 29
- Views: 3164
Re: Stock BuyBacks Effectiveness
Buybacks provide significant buying pressure which is one of the prime reasons for increased valuations.
The major drawback for buybacks is that they provide cover for new issuance which is largely given to corporate executives. New issuance is something like 97% of share buybacks. That is why corporation executives like them. New shares and buying pressure-- hard to resist.
The major drawback for buybacks is that they provide cover for new issuance which is largely given to corporate executives. New issuance is something like 97% of share buybacks. That is why corporation executives like them. New shares and buying pressure-- hard to resist.
- Sat Jun 05, 2021 12:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: John Bogle - Investment Return vs Market Return
- Replies: 72
- Views: 7174
Re: John Bogle - Investment Return vs Market Return
Maybe a little awkward terminology but it is a restatement of Bogle's formula:
Market return = investment return plus speculation return
Or
Market return = business return + speculation return
Market return = investment return plus speculation return
Or
Market return = business return + speculation return
- Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:48 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 Earnings for P/E Calculations
- Replies: 9
- Views: 886
Re: S&P 500 Earnings for P/E Calculations
I would use the S&P published numbers. From time to time, they update (correct) their numbers. I believe S&P uses the 10K statements to generate their numbers. And from time to time, companies will update(correct) their numbers which results in S&P changing their numbers. Companies which use the S&P numbers probably don't update their numbers in a timely fashion or never they update them.
- Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:46 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
- Replies: 24
- Views: 4097
Re: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
A bit of additional data from Goldman Sachs (March 2021). They estimate that households will increase their equity holdings in 2021 by $350 billion up from $100 billion in 2020. And corporations will repurchase $300 billion of their own stock.
I believe owners of hedge funds are considered households.
I believe owners of hedge funds are considered households.
- Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:53 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
- Replies: 24
- Views: 4097
Re: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
I struggle to find the definition of "investors" by BOA. According to Goldman Sachs corporations via buybacks have been the largest source of buying pressure over the last few years. Households have been sellers along with pension funds.
Goldman Sachs periodically presents an analysis of buyers and sellers but I have not seen their 2020 survey.
Goldman Sachs periodically presents an analysis of buyers and sellers but I have not seen their 2020 survey.
- Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Why 1971 has become the starting point for increasing income inequality?
- Replies: 24
- Views: 2054
Re: Why 1971 has become the starting point for increasing income inequality?
The 70's also saw the large scale introduction of computers into industry automating many functions and eliminating middle-class jobs. This automation has continued until today with computing power building robots and robotic machines eliminating factory jobs.
- Mon Dec 07, 2020 6:45 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Burton Malkiel Interview
- Replies: 14
- Views: 2496
Re: Burton Malkiel Interview
John Bogle said pretty much the same thing as Malkiel. Investing in high quality dividend paying stocks was not about avoiding volatility but rather about not having to liquidate your portfolio because of the need for income (cash) for those at or near retirement. If you need income from your portfolio, you should try to avoid selling in a long-term downturn. With bond yields at extreme low values tilting to some secure dividend paying companies makes sense.
There was no recommendation to chase yield or buy high income funds,
There was no recommendation to chase yield or buy high income funds,
- Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Is it too late to buy Gold?
- Replies: 67
- Views: 6226
Re: Is it too late to buy Gold?
As others have pointed out gold pays no interest or dividends. So unless you sell it at a profit, it has no return. And if you never plan to sell, then it has no place in your portfolio.
If you can execute a rebalance program, it can produce a return. Of course it is best to buy low when the world is at ease. Gold has had a run up, hopefully things get better and gold drops in price and you can buy. But you must be prepared to sell when the next storm hits to generate a return,
If you can execute a rebalance program, it can produce a return. Of course it is best to buy low when the world is at ease. Gold has had a run up, hopefully things get better and gold drops in price and you can buy. But you must be prepared to sell when the next storm hits to generate a return,
- Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:40 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Favorite Science Fiction Movies
- Replies: 179
- Views: 12687
Re: Favorite Science Fiction Movies
Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Both and a rare case where the second version is as good as or even better than the original.
I'll throw it out there, King Kong-- the original. I don't know if it is science fiction but it was a great movie.
I'll throw it out there, King Kong-- the original. I don't know if it is science fiction but it was a great movie.
- Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:04 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Florida snowbirds and covid-19
- Replies: 38
- Views: 4660
Re: Florida snowbirds and covid-19
In a period of watchful waiting.
- Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:56 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 4715
Re: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?
Goldman Sachs (Global Market Research) periodically publishes a breakdown of who is buying and selling stocks. Their report for the first quarter of 2020 showed that foreign investors were the largest buyers of US equities buying $187 billion. Households bought $7 billion . Corporations via buybacks bought $129 billion of their stocks. The largest sellers were mutual funds selling $66 billion and pension funds selling $119 billion. Corporation have for the last several years been the largest buyers of stocks via buybacks. So for the first quarter 2020, retail investors did not drive the market. However, Goldman Sachs projected for the full year that foreign investors would be the largest buyer at $300 billion while households would come in ...
- Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:21 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: "Bank of XOM versus 'risk-free treasuries'" since 2009
- Replies: 64
- Views: 7274
Re: "Bank of XOM versus 'risk-free treasuries'" since 2009
000, said:
"Murphy's law says whatever decisions you make, the market will go the other way."
Let's give credit where credit is due. This is more accurately know as the "Nedsaid Effect".
TJSI
"Murphy's law says whatever decisions you make, the market will go the other way."
Let's give credit where credit is due. This is more accurately know as the "Nedsaid Effect".
TJSI
- Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:22 pm
- Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
- Topic: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??
- Replies: 87
- Views: 8890
Re: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??
Senior citizens vote --big time. SS won't be cut. Worry about something else and do more exercise.
- Wed May 27, 2020 6:25 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
- Replies: 169
- Views: 11427
Re: I don't understand stock buybacks
Alex,
Stick to investing. Friction is a force. Newton"s law works quite well until you get to relativistic speeds. It got us to the moon and back.
Stick to investing. Friction is a force. Newton"s law works quite well until you get to relativistic speeds. It got us to the moon and back.
- Sun May 24, 2020 12:03 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Questions based on Graham's book
- Replies: 11
- Views: 1090
Re: Questions based on Graham's book
I would recommend you also read the book: John Neff On Investing. He was a legendary value investor with an amazing record of success. Also was a good friend of John Bogle.
But don't underestimate the difficulty of picking individual value stocks. It requires high intelligence and a special skill set. Some enjoy doing research and security analysis. For them it is more like a hobby which they enjoy. It is not easy.
But don't underestimate the difficulty of picking individual value stocks. It requires high intelligence and a special skill set. Some enjoy doing research and security analysis. For them it is more like a hobby which they enjoy. It is not easy.
- Wed May 06, 2020 10:01 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: Deluded by dividends, bond interest, & cap gains
- Replies: 29
- Views: 2640
Re: Deluded by dividends, bond interest, & cap gains
Find another expert ASAP. They are plentiful.
- Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:21 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
- Replies: 277
- Views: 24188
Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
White Coat Investor gave one of the best summaries of SCV tilt investing when he wrote:
" But the bottom line is that SCV tilt is a life long commitment."
That is a great summary of the decision to invest in SCV. The other factor difficult to comprehend is life itself. If you live long enough you will see and experience things you never expected. There will be birth, death, marriage, divorce, children, illness, great jobs, and layoffs. Many things will effect your life often out of your control.
So staying the course with SCV over a lifetime will be for many be too difficult.
TJSI
" But the bottom line is that SCV tilt is a life long commitment."
That is a great summary of the decision to invest in SCV. The other factor difficult to comprehend is life itself. If you live long enough you will see and experience things you never expected. There will be birth, death, marriage, divorce, children, illness, great jobs, and layoffs. Many things will effect your life often out of your control.
So staying the course with SCV over a lifetime will be for many be too difficult.
TJSI
- Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:35 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets
- Replies: 49
- Views: 4783
Re: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets
Thanks SimpleGift. Good data and excellent presentation.
- Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:17 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Ticks/Lyme/Prevention?
- Replies: 19
- Views: 1304
Re: Ticks/Lyme/Prevention?
As above permethrin is excellent. Does not work as well for Lone Star ticks because of their body construction.
Maybe because of the money now being spent on the coronavirus some of the knowledge/ treatments will have applicability to the multiple diseases ticks spread.
Maybe because of the money now being spent on the coronavirus some of the knowledge/ treatments will have applicability to the multiple diseases ticks spread.
- Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:22 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Gold [why is it dropping?]
- Replies: 72
- Views: 4189
Re: Gold [why is it dropping?]
I think gold has been replaced by toilet paper. People use to buy gold when there was fear running wild. Now they buy toilet paper.
I am trying to think of a good name for a portfolio that has 25% toilet paper. Suggestions?
I am trying to think of a good name for a portfolio that has 25% toilet paper. Suggestions?
- Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Are you still going to the gym ...
- Replies: 210
- Views: 16138
Re: Are you still going to the gym ...
Yes. Probably about 20% less crowed. Wash your hands with soap and avoid anyone coughing. You will be OK.
- Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:00 am
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Coronavirus and the market
- Replies: 4089
- Views: 397313
Re: Coronavirus and the market
Teriyaki,
You have made an implicit assumption in your analysis. Namely that the market was perfectly priced before the down turn last week.
The sudden decline might be a combination of a return to a fair value and fear that earnings may drop due to disruptions in normal business activity.
With fear running high, the market might well plunge past the fair value based on DCF.
TJSI
You have made an implicit assumption in your analysis. Namely that the market was perfectly priced before the down turn last week.
The sudden decline might be a combination of a return to a fair value and fear that earnings may drop due to disruptions in normal business activity.
With fear running high, the market might well plunge past the fair value based on DCF.
TJSI
- Fri Feb 28, 2020 6:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
- Replies: 54
- Views: 4572
Re: Minimum volatility fund this week
Way too soon to make any judgements. If the decline continues, I would expect that investors start to buy as dividend yields become attractive. In panic mode everything is thrown overboard. The good, the bad, and the average are abandoned. This presents opportunity for those who keep calm to pick up some oversold securities.
- Wed Feb 26, 2020 7:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Where is the left tail risk reduction from factors
- Replies: 28
- Views: 2011
Re: Where is the left tail risk reduction from factors
The fundamental problem with the concept of tail risk reduction is the unstated assumption that the return statistics are stationary.
So a return is calculated over a long time period and declared to be the "expected return". Over a short time period when a crisis hits those statistics are worthless.
If you want to reduce tail risk, buy bonds. Or even low volatility, dividend paying stocks for that matter.
So a return is calculated over a long time period and declared to be the "expected return". Over a short time period when a crisis hits those statistics are worthless.
If you want to reduce tail risk, buy bonds. Or even low volatility, dividend paying stocks for that matter.
- Sat Feb 08, 2020 10:37 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]
- Replies: 87
- Views: 12187
Re: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]
There is really nothing new or even surprising about Prof Siegel's recommendation. It is the well recommended idea that as one approaches retirement, they should pivot to a "safe income" investment portfolio. And with interest rates so low this means using safe dividend paying stocks to provide some needed income. John Bogle said the same. It does not mean chasing high yield.
- Thu Feb 06, 2020 2:02 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Dividends or Buybacks: Which Is Better?
- Replies: 5
- Views: 609
Re: Dividends or Buybacks: Which Is Better?
No analysis of buybacks is complete without considering its opposite --issuance. To be sure buybacks provide buying pressure and help hold or increase market prices. But the dilution of ownership due to the issuance of new shares largely nulls out the effect of buybacks on earnings per share growth rate.
Declaring a company as "stockholder friendly" because of their buybacks without discussing their new share issuance is misleading.
TJSI
Declaring a company as "stockholder friendly" because of their buybacks without discussing their new share issuance is misleading.
TJSI
- Fri Jan 24, 2020 1:40 am
- Forum: US Chapters
- Topic: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed
- Replies: 352
- Views: 37565
Re: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed
LadyGeek,
Very sorry to learn of your loss. Your husband was blessed to have you there for him,
And thanks for your superb job of keeping the Bogleheads forum sane.
TJSI
Very sorry to learn of your loss. Your husband was blessed to have you there for him,
And thanks for your superb job of keeping the Bogleheads forum sane.
TJSI
- Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:38 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Did John Bogle ever say anything about stock buybacks?
- Replies: 8
- Views: 849
Re: Did John Bogle ever say anything about stock buybacks?
This question has been asked several times and is caused by the misuse of the term buyback yield, Returns are only generated by an increase in the number of shares owned and increases in their price. The rate at which shares increase is the dividend yield and buybacks don't increase the number of shares held by an investor. Adding "buyback yield" to dividend yield is just plain wrong. Buybacks are important because they are a large fraction of market buying pressure. The data JP Morgan Chase publishes says that the effect on earnings growth per share is small because the shares reduced by buybacks is nulled out by issuance of new shares. Last year seems to be an exception as there was a boost in earnings growth rate due to buyback...
- Sat Dec 28, 2019 10:58 am
- Forum: Non-US Investing
- Topic: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?
- Replies: 44
- Views: 4320
Re: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?
Nisiprius,
When you discuss correlations, you must specify the time interval over which you are measuring it. For short periods of time gold has had negative correlation. Long term correlation is slightly positive.
If you have gold in your portfolio and just hold it over multiple years it will do nothing but lower your return. If you have a rebalancing program and execute it, gold can give a positive return. You can get a volatility lift!
TJSI
When you discuss correlations, you must specify the time interval over which you are measuring it. For short periods of time gold has had negative correlation. Long term correlation is slightly positive.
If you have gold in your portfolio and just hold it over multiple years it will do nothing but lower your return. If you have a rebalancing program and execute it, gold can give a positive return. You can get a volatility lift!
TJSI
- Wed Nov 20, 2019 6:16 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: What Powered Such a Great Decade For Stocks?
- Replies: 36
- Views: 4394
Re: What Powered Such a Great Decade For Stocks?
Jeff,
Thanks for the link. A very clear and succinct analysis by Ben Carlson.
I think that in addition to QE and low interest rates we should add buybacks which I believe are keeping PEs afloat.
TJSI
Thanks for the link. A very clear and succinct analysis by Ben Carlson.
I think that in addition to QE and low interest rates we should add buybacks which I believe are keeping PEs afloat.
TJSI
- Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:21 am
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Email Compromised On The Dark Web
- Replies: 20
- Views: 8823
Re: Email Compromised On The Dark Web
Yes you should be concerned because that message itself may be a scam. You can't scan the "dark web". Call the number on your credit card to see if there is any validity to that message.
- Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:59 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"
- Replies: 32
- Views: 8645
Re: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"
Some very good rules by LS. Note the contradiction between 6 & 8.
- Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:27 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2332
Re: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
To answer Nisiprius' question on why small is not included in the paper: The study only looked at S&P 500 Indices. The indices studied are all subsets of the S&P 500.
And thanks for your questions because it always brings Elvis's "Suspicious Minds" to my mind. It was a good song and I believe his last big hit.
TJSI
And thanks for your questions because it always brings Elvis's "Suspicious Minds" to my mind. It was a good song and I believe his last big hit.
TJSI
- Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:32 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
- Replies: 20
- Views: 2332
Re: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
Thanks for the link to a very informative paper. It provides further validation to the out-performance of low volatility and dividend paying stocks.
Of course, these results are only valid in a no-tax environment.
TJSI
Of course, these results are only valid in a no-tax environment.
TJSI
- Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:44 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
- Replies: 94
- Views: 7545
Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
A good excuse for poor performance.
- Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:30 pm
- Forum: Personal Investments
- Topic: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"
- Replies: 53
- Views: 4962
Re: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"
You can lock in your gains by transferring your risky investments to less risky ones. Moving some/all of your investments to treasury bonds for instance.
Same concept as taking winnings off the table.
TJSI
Same concept as taking winnings off the table.
TJSI
- Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:41 pm
- Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
- Topic: Windows 10 urgent update alert.
- Replies: 6
- Views: 2115
Re: Windows 10 urgent update alert.
Thanks for the heads up. There were two updates out there an antivirus and a .NET . Update was painless as these things go.
- Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:33 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
- Replies: 246
- Views: 28507
Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
willthrill88,
Nope, I' m referring to the roll of volatility in a portfolio. The possibility of achieving the "rebalancing bonus" exists. There is some fellow on this forum who loves his RBDs.
I would not say it is easy to get a volatility lift but it is possible. And I would certainly recommend that those approaching retirement dampen the volatility of their portfolio.
TJSI
Nope, I' m referring to the roll of volatility in a portfolio. The possibility of achieving the "rebalancing bonus" exists. There is some fellow on this forum who loves his RBDs.
I would not say it is easy to get a volatility lift but it is possible. And I would certainly recommend that those approaching retirement dampen the volatility of their portfolio.
TJSI
- Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:14 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
- Replies: 246
- Views: 28507
Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Like the Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot, volatility drag will always exist in some minds.
Northern Flicker has seen through the fog of mathematics. If you have some compounding action in your portfolio, the arithmetic mean is an incorrect method of computing return.
Volatility is neither a friend or foe. If you are a clever fellow/girl, you can get a volatility lift. Just buy low and sell high when appropriate.
TJSI
Northern Flicker has seen through the fog of mathematics. If you have some compounding action in your portfolio, the arithmetic mean is an incorrect method of computing return.
Volatility is neither a friend or foe. If you are a clever fellow/girl, you can get a volatility lift. Just buy low and sell high when appropriate.
TJSI
- Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:02 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
- Replies: 4
- Views: 529
Re: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
SimpleGift,
I agree with you 100%. I just thought your graphs showed very dramatically why it is hard to get a return benefit from diversification.
However, that does not negate, as you point out, the potential reduction in risk by diversifying return sources.
TJSI
I agree with you 100%. I just thought your graphs showed very dramatically why it is hard to get a return benefit from diversification.
However, that does not negate, as you point out, the potential reduction in risk by diversifying return sources.
TJSI
- Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:03 pm
- Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
- Topic: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
- Replies: 4
- Views: 529
Re: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
I don't see how you can get a diversification benefit unless you are really good at foretelling the future. Looks like you should have gone with all UK around 1960 and 35 years later switched to all US and stuck with it.
Those are great plots--thanks. I think it illustrates perfectly the difficulty in achieving a diversification return benefit. You need to know the optimal rebalancing schedule.
TJSI
Those are great plots--thanks. I think it illustrates perfectly the difficulty in achieving a diversification return benefit. You need to know the optimal rebalancing schedule.
TJSI