Search found 388 matches

by TJSI
Sat Apr 17, 2021 10:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Earnings for P/E Calculations
Replies: 9
Views: 661

Re: S&P 500 Earnings for P/E Calculations

I would use the S&P published numbers. From time to time, they update (correct) their numbers. I believe S&P uses the 10K statements to generate their numbers. And from time to time, companies will update(correct) their numbers which results in S&P changing their numbers. Companies which...
by TJSI
Sat Apr 10, 2021 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
Replies: 24
Views: 3783

Re: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]

A bit of additional data from Goldman Sachs (March 2021). They estimate that households will increase their equity holdings in 2021 by $350 billion up from $100 billion in 2020. And corporations will repurchase $300 billion of their own stock. I believe owners of hedge funds are considered households.
by TJSI
Sat Apr 10, 2021 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]
Replies: 24
Views: 3783

Re: Can this be true? [CNBC: Investors put more money into stocks]

I struggle to find the definition of "investors" by BOA. According to Goldman Sachs corporations via buybacks have been the largest source of buying pressure over the last few years. Households have been sellers along with pension funds. Goldman Sachs periodically presents an analysis of b...
by TJSI
Thu Apr 08, 2021 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why 1971 has become the starting point for increasing income inequality?
Replies: 24
Views: 1653

Re: Why 1971 has become the starting point for increasing income inequality?

The 70's also saw the large scale introduction of computers into industry automating many functions and eliminating middle-class jobs. This automation has continued until today with computing power building robots and robotic machines eliminating factory jobs.
by TJSI
Mon Dec 07, 2020 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Burton Malkiel Interview
Replies: 14
Views: 2151

Re: Burton Malkiel Interview

John Bogle said pretty much the same thing as Malkiel. Investing in high quality dividend paying stocks was not about avoiding volatility but rather about not having to liquidate your portfolio because of the need for income (cash) for those at or near retirement. If you need income from your portfo...
by TJSI
Sun Oct 25, 2020 10:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is it too late to buy Gold?
Replies: 67
Views: 5204

Re: Is it too late to buy Gold?

As others have pointed out gold pays no interest or dividends. So unless you sell it at a profit, it has no return. And if you never plan to sell, then it has no place in your portfolio. If you can execute a rebalance program, it can produce a return. Of course it is best to buy low when the world i...
by TJSI
Sat Oct 17, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Favorite Science Fiction Movies
Replies: 179
Views: 9149

Re: Favorite Science Fiction Movies

Invasion of the Body Snatchers. Both and a rare case where the second version is as good as or even better than the original.

I'll throw it out there, King Kong-- the original. I don't know if it is science fiction but it was a great movie.
by TJSI
Wed Oct 07, 2020 2:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Florida snowbirds and covid-19
Replies: 38
Views: 3913

Re: Florida snowbirds and covid-19

In a period of watchful waiting.
by TJSI
Sat Sep 19, 2020 3:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?
Replies: 36
Views: 4042

Re: Are retail investors driving the market? But I thought 10 percent richest own 90% of market?

Goldman Sachs (Global Market Research) periodically publishes a breakdown of who is buying and selling stocks. Their report for the first quarter of 2020 showed that foreign investors were the largest buyers of US equities buying $187 billion. Households bought $7 billion . Corporations via buybacks...
by TJSI
Wed Aug 26, 2020 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Bank of XOM versus 'risk-free treasuries'" since 2009
Replies: 60
Views: 5781

Re: "Bank of XOM versus 'risk-free treasuries'" since 2009

000, said:

"Murphy's law says whatever decisions you make, the market will go the other way."

Let's give credit where credit is due. This is more accurately know as the "Nedsaid Effect".

TJSI
by TJSI
Thu Aug 20, 2020 1:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??
Replies: 87
Views: 6931

Re: Social Security Jitters Anyone ??

Senior citizens vote --big time. SS won't be cut. Worry about something else and do more exercise.
by TJSI
Wed May 27, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand stock buybacks
Replies: 169
Views: 9829

Re: I don't understand stock buybacks

Alex,

Stick to investing. Friction is a force. Newton"s law works quite well until you get to relativistic speeds. It got us to the moon and back.
by TJSI
Sun May 24, 2020 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Questions based on Graham's book
Replies: 11
Views: 846

Re: Questions based on Graham's book

I would recommend you also read the book: John Neff On Investing. He was a legendary value investor with an amazing record of success. Also was a good friend of John Bogle. But don't underestimate the difficulty of picking individual value stocks. It requires high intelligence and a special skill se...
by TJSI
Wed May 06, 2020 10:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Deluded by dividends, bond interest, & cap gains
Replies: 29
Views: 2391

Re: Deluded by dividends, bond interest, & cap gains

Find another expert ASAP. They are plentiful.
by TJSI
Wed Apr 15, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?
Replies: 263
Views: 17589

Re: whos' just about had it w/ SCV ?

White Coat Investor gave one of the best summaries of SCV tilt investing when he wrote: " But the bottom line is that SCV tilt is a life long commitment." That is a great summary of the decision to invest in SCV. The other factor difficult to comprehend is life itself. If you live long eno...
by TJSI
Sun Mar 29, 2020 3:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets
Replies: 48
Views: 3780

Re: Dividends and Earnings during Recent Bear Markets

Thanks SimpleGift. Good data and excellent presentation.
by TJSI
Fri Mar 27, 2020 10:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Ticks/Lyme/Prevention?
Replies: 19
Views: 1048

Re: Ticks/Lyme/Prevention?

As above permethrin is excellent. Does not work as well for Lone Star ticks because of their body construction.

Maybe because of the money now being spent on the coronavirus some of the knowledge/ treatments will have applicability to the multiple diseases ticks spread.
by TJSI
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold [why is it dropping?]
Replies: 72
Views: 3502

Re: Gold [why is it dropping?]

I think gold has been replaced by toilet paper. People use to buy gold when there was fear running wild. Now they buy toilet paper.
I am trying to think of a good name for a portfolio that has 25% toilet paper. Suggestions?
by TJSI
Thu Mar 12, 2020 10:29 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are you still going to the gym ...
Replies: 210
Views: 12944

Re: Are you still going to the gym ...

Yes. Probably about 20% less crowed. Wash your hands with soap and avoid anyone coughing. You will be OK.
by TJSI
Sun Mar 01, 2020 4:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4089
Views: 325457

Re: Coronavirus and the market

Teriyaki, You have made an implicit assumption in your analysis. Namely that the market was perfectly priced before the down turn last week. The sudden decline might be a combination of a return to a fair value and fear that earnings may drop due to disruptions in normal business activity. With fear...
by TJSI
Fri Feb 28, 2020 7:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Minimum volatility fund this week
Replies: 54
Views: 3585

Re: Minimum volatility fund this week

Way too soon to make any judgements. If the decline continues, I would expect that investors start to buy as dividend yields become attractive. In panic mode everything is thrown overboard. The good, the bad, and the average are abandoned. This presents opportunity for those who keep calm to pick up...
by TJSI
Wed Feb 26, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is the left tail risk reduction from factors
Replies: 28
Views: 1555

Re: Where is the left tail risk reduction from factors

The fundamental problem with the concept of tail risk reduction is the unstated assumption that the return statistics are stationary. So a return is calculated over a long time period and declared to be the "expected return". Over a short time period when a crisis hits those statistics are...
by TJSI
Sat Feb 08, 2020 11:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]
Replies: 87
Views: 10180

Re: [Professor Jeremy Siegel says 75/25 in retirement]

There is really nothing new or even surprising about Prof Siegel's recommendation. It is the well recommended idea that as one approaches retirement, they should pivot to a "safe income" investment portfolio. And with interest rates so low this means using safe dividend paying stocks to pr...
by TJSI
Thu Feb 06, 2020 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends or Buybacks: Which Is Better?
Replies: 5
Views: 437

Re: Dividends or Buybacks: Which Is Better?

No analysis of buybacks is complete without considering its opposite --issuance. To be sure buybacks provide buying pressure and help hold or increase market prices. But the dilution of ownership due to the issuance of new shares largely nulls out the effect of buybacks on earnings per share growth ...
by TJSI
Fri Jan 24, 2020 2:40 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed
Replies: 352
Views: 29552

Re: Sad news: LadyGeek's husband has passed

LadyGeek,

Very sorry to learn of your loss. Your husband was blessed to have you there for him,

And thanks for your superb job of keeping the Bogleheads forum sane.

TJSI
by TJSI
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did John Bogle ever say anything about stock buybacks?
Replies: 8
Views: 704

Re: Did John Bogle ever say anything about stock buybacks?

This question has been asked several times and is caused by the misuse of the term buyback yield, Returns are only generated by an increase in the number of shares owned and increases in their price. The rate at which shares increase is the dividend yield and buybacks don't increase the number of sh...
by TJSI
Sat Dec 28, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?
Replies: 44
Views: 4001

Re: Is Gold really as bad as it made out to be?

Nisiprius, When you discuss correlations, you must specify the time interval over which you are measuring it. For short periods of time gold has had negative correlation. Long term correlation is slightly positive. If you have gold in your portfolio and just hold it over multiple years it will do no...
by TJSI
Wed Nov 20, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Powered Such a Great Decade For Stocks?
Replies: 36
Views: 4017

Re: What Powered Such a Great Decade For Stocks?

Jeff,

Thanks for the link. A very clear and succinct analysis by Ben Carlson.

I think that in addition to QE and low interest rates we should add buybacks which I believe are keeping PEs afloat.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Oct 21, 2019 11:21 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Email Compromised On The Dark Web
Replies: 20
Views: 5129

Re: Email Compromised On The Dark Web

Yes you should be concerned because that message itself may be a scam. You can't scan the "dark web". Call the number on your credit card to see if there is any validity to that message.
by TJSI
Fri Oct 04, 2019 4:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"
Replies: 32
Views: 8244

Re: Larry Swedroe's "Rules of Prudent Investing"

Some very good rules by LS. Note the contradiction between 6 & 8.
by TJSI
Thu Oct 03, 2019 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
Replies: 20
Views: 2140

Re: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004

To answer Nisiprius' question on why small is not included in the paper: The study only looked at S&P 500 Indices. The indices studied are all subsets of the S&P 500. And thanks for your questions because it always brings Elvis's "Suspicious Minds" to my mind. It was a good song an...
by TJSI
Wed Oct 02, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004
Replies: 20
Views: 2140

Re: S&P 500 cap-weighted beaten by Growth, Momentum, Min Vol, Low Vol & Quality since 2004

Thanks for the link to a very informative paper. It provides further validation to the out-performance of low volatility and dividend paying stocks.
Of course, these results are only valid in a no-tax environment.

TJSI
by TJSI
Mon Sep 16, 2019 10:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:
Replies: 94
Views: 6725

Re: Don't confuse strategy with outcome:

A good excuse for poor performance.
by TJSI
Thu Aug 15, 2019 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"
Replies: 53
Views: 4184

Re: How can I accomplish "Locking in Gains"

You can lock in your gains by transferring your risky investments to less risky ones. Moving some/all of your investments to treasury bonds for instance.

Same concept as taking winnings off the table.

TJSI
by TJSI
Wed Aug 14, 2019 6:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Windows 10 urgent update alert.
Replies: 6
Views: 1957

Re: Windows 10 urgent update alert.

Thanks for the heads up. There were two updates out there an antivirus and a .NET . Update was painless as these things go.
by TJSI
Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 246
Views: 25862

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

willthrill88, Nope, I' m referring to the roll of volatility in a portfolio. The possibility of achieving the "rebalancing bonus" exists. There is some fellow on this forum who loves his RBDs. I would not say it is easy to get a volatility lift but it is possible. And I would certainly rec...
by TJSI
Sun Aug 11, 2019 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?
Replies: 246
Views: 25862

Re: Do you think about volatility drag on your portfolio?

Like the Loch Ness Monster and Big Foot, volatility drag will always exist in some minds. Northern Flicker has seen through the fog of mathematics. If you have some compounding action in your portfolio, the arithmetic mean is an incorrect method of computing return. Volatility is neither a friend or...
by TJSI
Fri Jun 14, 2019 3:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
Replies: 4
Views: 429

Re: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns

SimpleGift,

I agree with you 100%. I just thought your graphs showed very dramatically why it is hard to get a return benefit from diversification.

However, that does not negate, as you point out, the potential reduction in risk by diversifying return sources.

TJSI
by TJSI
Fri Jun 14, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns
Replies: 4
Views: 429

Re: Correlation vs. Differential of Asset Returns

I don't see how you can get a diversification benefit unless you are really good at foretelling the future. Looks like you should have gone with all UK around 1960 and 35 years later switched to all US and stuck with it. Those are great plots--thanks. I think it illustrates perfectly the difficulty ...
by TJSI
Tue Mar 19, 2019 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market
Replies: 39
Views: 3807

Re: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market

BJJ_GUY Thank you for your comments. Yes, the US market is the referenced market and the S&P 500 would be a good proxy for it. I find it both amusing and frustrating that the most basic of information on the "market" seems to be covered in fog. Perhaps the FED has produced a report on ...
by TJSI
Tue Mar 19, 2019 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market
Replies: 39
Views: 3807

Re: Passive investing now controls nearly half the US stock market

Several people have mentioned the issue of defining the "market". It is a topic for which I have never seen a clear or good study. Instead you usually see references to traders, sovereign funds, institutional investors, endowments, pension funds, and retail investors but never a good break...
by TJSI
Wed Mar 06, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%
Replies: 32
Views: 4644

Re: S&P 500 Dividend Yield Plus Buyback Yield for 2018 Was 5.96%

jdilla1107, You can't null out a buyback by selling your shares since you don't know when, if, or at what price the buyback (if any) was performed. The simple fact is that if a company is overpaying for their stock they are reducing their return on equity. Or as it was well put: You can't get rich p...
by TJSI
Wed Feb 20, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus
Replies: 38
Views: 3810

Re: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus

A slightly different purpose to rebalancing is the desire to "take your winnings off the table". Although just a part of risk management, it provides a rational for rebalancing. If you are at or near retirement, it does make sense to book your gains. However, in general there is no automat...
by TJSI
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 63440

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

The passing of a giant of the investment industry is a sad day. He freely gave of himself his time, knowledge and wisdom. The welfare of the common investor was always his goal. We are sad today, but we are all richer for having read his books, read his papers, or listened to him. Rest in peace in M...
by TJSI
Tue Jan 15, 2019 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA
Replies: 12
Views: 1507

Re: low volatility funds in a Roth IRA

Aristotelian, The low volatility anomaly has been known and well documented for quite some time. Back in 1972 Black, Jensen, and Scholes found that low beta stocks outperformed the market ( The Capital Asset Pricing Model: Some Empirical Tests). There have been several published studies since then c...
by TJSI
Sun Dec 23, 2018 8:36 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Research paper James Grant CNBC
Replies: 9
Views: 1198

Re: Research paper James Grant CNBC

Finished reading this paper by Prof McQuarrie in which he dissects stock market returns. He reviews the market return over multiple time periods starting in 1830. There is a lot of good analysis and discussion of the Siegel return and the total return approach. He tells a cautionary tale that one sh...
by TJSI
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Research paper James Grant CNBC
Replies: 9
Views: 1198

Re: Research paper James Grant CNBC

rmgtl,

Thank you posting an interesting and provocative paper. It is long so it will take some effort to digest it completely. But it certainly presents a fresh look at the topic of stock market returns.


TJSI
by TJSI
Fri Nov 16, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 245
Views: 17893

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

The idea that taking more risk leads to greater return is one of most enduring fallacies of finance. Sometimes it is stated something like "investors demand greater return otherwise they would not take the added risk." Well you can demand all you want but that does not mean you are going t...
by TJSI
Sat Nov 10, 2018 12:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors
Replies: 14
Views: 3244

Re: 18 topics badly explained by many Finance Professors

Thanks for the link--very informative paper.

TJSI
by TJSI
Sun Oct 28, 2018 10:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math
Replies: 21
Views: 4158

Re: Bogle’s SP500 Returns Math

GuitarXM, I believe the chart you are looking at are returns developed using Bogle's predictive method. See for instance, the paper What's Ahead for Stocks and Bonds--And How to Earn Your Fair Share-- Keynote Speech by John Bogle. On page 8 where he discusses the returns of the 1990s it is in terms ...