Search found 5270 matches

by Random Musings
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 842
Views: 42751

Re: John Bogle has died at age 89

A sad day. Jack was a champion for the little investor. R.I.P.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Jan 12, 2019 10:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: ROI calc on grocery expenses
Replies: 29
Views: 1872

Re: ROI calc on grocery expenses

Between this and the discounted stamp prices, I crunched the numbers and now will be able to retire 3 years earlier!! However, I'm concerned that these savings strategies will become well known, like small-value loading, and too many people will pile on to this strategy and these expected savings wi...
by Random Musings
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8398

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

Weird that you will be able to short an individual stock, but not buy an inverse S&P fund. Both can be used to hedge, but shorting an individual stock carries more risk if done in a speculative manner.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Jan 12, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon
Replies: 48
Views: 2606

Re: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon

I'm thinking of planning a trip to visit family in Las Vegas but also thinking about seeing the Grand Canyon. We'll be coming from the Philly area. 2 adults, 2 kids under 10. Looking for suggestions on things to do around the area. We were thinking about flying into Phoenix and driving to the Grand...
by Random Musings
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon
Replies: 48
Views: 2606

Re: 5 days. What to do in Las Vegas and Grand Canyon

Death Valley is a very interesting place and April would be a good time to visit. However, in the other direction, the Zion/Bryce area is a great area to visit but Bryce will be cool as elevations reach 9,000 ft. There are great hiking routes in both parks, plus other areas around there to visit (li...
by Random Musings
Thu Jan 10, 2019 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1751

Re: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

It is a very simple exercise in mathematics over a given time frame to create a complex portfolio using leverage/alternates/options, etc., with higher bond allocations that outperforms a standard 60/40 portfolio and provides a higher Sharpe ratio. Data mining the past is easy but its conclusions ar...
by Random Musings
Tue Jan 08, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8398

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

I have never used 2x or higher leveraged products, however, I have used (occasionally) inverse funds and small put positions as hedges. Overall, the usage has improved overall returns. I guess the reasons that Vanguard is doing this is to mitigate legal risks, have investors that utilize these produ...
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]
Replies: 54
Views: 5203

Re: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]

People are getting fleeced by the 5.75% load if their advisor does that for them. At the least, you can conduit through their bond fund at a lower front end load, then switch to the funds of choice.

Also, for people with higher initial investments, the front end load costs are reduced.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 29, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2119

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

Overthinking and overtrading hurts the retail investor.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 28, 2018 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]
Replies: 54
Views: 5203

Re: Dave Ramsey [“good growth mutual fund”]

Could do with Vanguard actives as well. Primecap, Capital Opportunity, Windsor II and Growth & Income. Little more volatility, but higher returns 8.10% and same Sharpe 0.49 and Sortino 0.70 Shouldn't the American funds start below $10K, as FE loads, even conduiting through the bond fund first, reduc...
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 28, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13577

Re: Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to market time

IMHO, sounds like Jack Bogle believes expected returns for stocks for a reasonable period of time moving forward to be lower than historical average. Does not predict what time the ugliness will occur, as he does not know like anyone else. A 10% shift from stocks to bonds is not draconian.

RM
by Random Musings
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?
Replies: 39
Views: 5803

Re: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?

But the problem is that even a blind pig can find an acorn once in a while. If this one call ends up right (not that low, but ends up being a big bear market), and with a little bit of self promoting, this will result with some investors following this "guru" (after the fact). Most likely, following...
by Random Musings
Thu Dec 27, 2018 10:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the real contrarians please stand up?
Replies: 58
Views: 3962

Re: Will the real contrarians please stand up?

wouldn't a true contrarian not stand up?

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Newsletter recommending inverse ETF for 2019
Replies: 22
Views: 1456

Re: Newsletter recommending inverse ETF for 2019

With respect to forecasting a bear market, there are always a lot of wrong calls in the investment letter business. Is this guy/gal 100% confident of a bear market, and if they are, are they extremely low in equity exposure or even net negative with this inverse ETF? The same newsletter predicted a...
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 22, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?
Replies: 132
Views: 9756

Re: When did the musicians on the titanic realize their fate?

Reasons I am not panicking: No debt, house paid for No leverage Live within my means At least 10 yrs of savings to live off, excluding equity portion. I will be retired before that. Although it may be crazy, since I am closer to retirement and valuations are still above average, I now plan my portfo...
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When is the next all time high? An historical perspective
Replies: 15
Views: 2072

Re: When is the next all time high? An historical perspective

From my perspective, I would be looking at a real high and not a nominal high , Including dividends.

That's what I can spend.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 22, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Optimal Portfolios
Replies: 8
Views: 1397

Re: Vanguard Optimal Portfolios

I hope they call me and tell me when to move to the optimal portfolio. Of course, will it be optimal the next time?

Basically, stay between 40/60 and 60/40, more or less.

RM
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What will be the low for the S&P 500?
Replies: 87
Views: 7933

Re: What will be the low for the S&P 500?

I don't know if the final low will be in 2019, but another 50% plus drop would not surprise me. So, I'll toss my ring in the hat and guess 1,270. Hope it doesn't happen though.

RM
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 19, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Employer switching 401k provider,how to plea for in-service rollover
Replies: 19
Views: 1795

Re: Employer switching 401k provider,how to plea for in-service rollover

There are a few high priced dogs and occasionally management will switch underperforming actives with suggested new funds (classic performance chasing). I ignore those, and just use the low cost (mostly index) funds and use my other retirement funds to complete my portfolio. If the OP is 401k heavy...
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 14, 2018 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"
Replies: 13
Views: 1186

Re: "The Academic Argument for Expensive Mutual Funds"

Perhaps they should put their money where there mouths are.

I also didn't know M* was working in collaboration with the Onion these days.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 14, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10123
Views: 1785559

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

At this point, the S&P is down about 11% or so and the Russell 2000 is getting closer to the 20% bear level. Still a correction, we've had a few since 2009. There is blood in the streets with specific stocks, but not for the market indices yet. I wonder if the Fed will jawbone in the next meeting li...
by Random Musings
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Megacorp Interview Advice
Replies: 12
Views: 1715

Re: Megacorp Interview Advice

I've worked at a megacorp for 26 years. In my experience, interviews for internal postings are pure theater. Hiring decisions are made long before the interviews and the interviews are held for two reasons: to comply with company policy that interviews be held, and to shield the company from potent...
by Random Musings
Thu Dec 13, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is a New Car Okay if Driven 15+ Years?
Replies: 91
Views: 7444

Re: Is a New Car Okay if Driven 15+ Years?

I prefer to buy new cars and drive them into the ground. Typically about 200,000 to 230,000 miles and 10 to 12 years old when I give up the ghost. I would love to run one to 300,000 miles, but after a while, the maintenance costs start to ramp up and the payback isn't there. Plus, technology does ch...
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 12, 2018 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?
Replies: 128
Views: 7355

Re: VMVFX (Global Minimum Volatility) as core equity holding. Your opinion?

I will not use VMVFX as a "core" equity holding in my portfolio. I'm just going to keep it simple with equity funds (with not much tilt), bond funds, TIPs and CD's. I don't believe there are any magic elixirs out there when in comes to investing, perhaps a few high frequency trading groups that take...
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Donate to homeless?
Replies: 84
Views: 4093

Re: Donate to homeless?

Donate to reputable charities. There are sites out there that help separate charities that are "scam-like" as well where most $ don't end up helping people they are supposed to help.

Plus, besides helping others, you may even get a tax benefit to boot.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Dec 11, 2018 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008
Replies: 249
Views: 20308

Re: What Happened to you during the Financial crisis of 2007–2008

I lived my life. The markets are going to do what the markets are going to do.

Didn't change my AA.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Dec 11, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What percentage of your net worth is your home equity?
Replies: 309
Views: 22079

Re: What percentage of your net worth is your home equity?

With the recent market correction, a little more.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Rep: Don't use target date because you can't time the market.
Replies: 19
Views: 2632

Re: Fidelity Rep: Don't use target date because you can't time the market.

Does this Fidelity advisor have a crystal ball that I don't have?

Or perhaps I just can't follow directions correctly.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Dec 11, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Best Investment Science Books
Replies: 9
Views: 901

Re: Larry Swedroe: Best Investment Science Books

Of the Bernstein books listed, I enjoyed reading Four Pillars the most. His books are always an interesting read.

Expected Returns was also a good book as well.

I'll have to check out a few on the list I have not read yet.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Dec 10, 2018 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy
Replies: 62
Views: 7343

Re: Article: Your love of index funds is terrible for our economy

What a bunch of horses***. Index funds are generally low cost and beat active funds, which means more money is going into the pockets of investors, rather than a smaller pool of people in the investment fund selling business. Lowers the distribution of wealth to the few - isn't that better for the e...
by Random Musings
Mon Dec 10, 2018 5:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10123
Views: 1785559

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If the markets would remain around current levels until the end of the year, market historians will look back at this year as a yawner. RM Even we will. Most people here seem to have already forgotten every other drop in the past 9 years and seem to think it's been one uninterrupted rise since 2009...
by Random Musings
Mon Dec 10, 2018 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10123
Views: 1785559

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

If the markets would remain around current levels until the end of the year, market historians will look back at this year as a yawner.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Dec 10, 2018 1:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 2299
Views: 399799

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

YTD as of Friday's close + 3.33%.

Currently 40/60

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Dec 10, 2018 9:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: To each his own ( I guess ) [Opinions of traveling in retirement]
Replies: 109
Views: 7939

Re: To each his own ( I guess )

As long as you and your spouse are happy on your travels, that is all that matters. As mentioned before, there are so many great and varied sites to visit in the U.S. I would go back to Carlsbad, I remember, as a child, seeing the swarm of bats leave the cave around dusk. Amazing. Nothing wrong with...
by Random Musings
Sun Dec 09, 2018 7:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?
Replies: 42
Views: 3217

Re: Low need to take risk - decrease allocation to stocks?

(We may increase that to 50% should the current market weakness continue.) Thanks For the sake of simplicity, at what % loss in the S&P 500 will you pull the trigger and add 5% to your equity position? 20%, 30%, 50%? Or would you go even higher into equities at various larger percentage losses? Is ...
by Random Musings
Sun Dec 09, 2018 9:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +
Replies: 137
Views: 18774

Re: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +

Job security is lower. I guess we live in alternate universes. In PA, once a teacher has tenure, it is very difficult for the administration to remove them for poor performance. Much more job security than the private sector. Indeed. Also, i don't see that 60 hour work week either as describes abov...
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +
Replies: 137
Views: 18774

Re: Teachers Who Have Net Worth of $1 million +

Teachers in many western PA schools do rather well. And if they want to, they can generate more income working in the summer. Almost all I know do not.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Dec 08, 2018 9:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 150
Views: 20912

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

When being prepared for losses on the equity side, the 50% loss number is tosses out quite a bit. However, what happens if we see 60 or 70%? Or "just " a 50% loss with pretty high inflation? I can see why the DFA income fund (I think that is the name) is so high in ST Tips. Preservation of assets wi...
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 07, 2018 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented
Replies: 174
Views: 12428

Re: Why Retirement Is Broken And Needs To Be Reinvented

We can set our own course for the future, but it is a fools errand to try to force a course for someone else.

There should be opportunities for all people to be educated about personal finance, but once you lead a horse to water.....

Free will has consequences, both positive and negative.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 07, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best values at Costco? Honestly, a little disappointed...
Replies: 188
Views: 21004

Re: Best values at Costco? Honestly, a little disappointed...

I've been to Trader Joe's, Whole Foods, Fred Meyer and Safeway (not Grocery Outlet). Only smiles there and young people. For some odd reason, and I can't figure out why, old and unhappy people at these stores are quickly escorted by a smiling staff member to a shiny door with the words "Soylent Corp...
by Random Musings
Fri Dec 07, 2018 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS
Replies: 50
Views: 8624

Re: We Are Teetering on the Edge of A DEATH CROSS

Death Cross Analysis

Mixed bag. Ignore the asset allocation section.

RM
by Random Musings
Thu Dec 06, 2018 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who else is getting excited? [about the market]
Replies: 145
Views: 13003

Re: Who else is getting excited?

"No reason to get excited
The thief he kindly spoke
There are many here among us
Who feel that life is but a joke"

RM
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12966

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan Gold is money plain and simple. The fact that it is on the balance sheet of every major central bank should end any argument equating gold to a simple commodity. The benefit of gold is not that it is just money but that it has no counte...
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 05, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad
Replies: 36
Views: 2980

Re: Why buying homes with mortgages is good but buying stocks on margin is bad

I don't think that mortgages are "good", but they serve a more useful purpose than buying stocks on margin. Most people can't afford to buy a home outright. Reality is, many people can't buy a car outright or pay for tuition. Saying that, i believe that lenders stretch too far with risky loans that ...
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12966

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

"Gold is money, everything else is credit." J. Pierpont Morgan Gold is money plain and simple. The fact that it is on the balance sheet of every major central bank should end any argument equating gold to a simple commodity. The benefit of gold is not that it is just money but that it has no counte...
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 05, 2018 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Barron's Making the Case for Gold
Replies: 153
Views: 12966

Re: Barron's Making the Case for Gold

I'll wait until Goldman Sachs makes a public investment announcement (that they do now and then) that it is time to purchase gold.

Then, I'll short it.

RM
by Random Musings
Wed Dec 05, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar forum gone?
Replies: 11
Views: 1575

Re: Morningstar forum gone?

It's their data. Perhaps they are moving to a more paying customer business model and this is the start. OTOH, if chrome is working perhaps there is a glitch or they have not gotten to that yet. Frankly, they provided provided a lot of free data and I saw no reason to pay for their service.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 10123
Views: 1785559

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

There are definitely a good percentage of individual stocks in "free fall" mode, that is, in their own bear markets. But the indices are not there yet. The small caps are closer to beat market territory, than the large caps (which are back to getting closer to 10% correction territory). Would not be...