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by Random Musings
Mon May 25, 2020 9:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19
Replies: 118
Views: 8675

Re: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19

Spending down about 30% past three months or so. Less activity payments, a lot less gasoline, no restaurants, no haircuts and so on. Working from home 80% of the time now so exercising more plus more time for yard work which is mostly free labor and some materials. Don't really drink but do see the ...
by Random Musings
Fri May 22, 2020 6:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call
Replies: 95
Views: 11320

Re: Moved all Retirement Plans to Cash Last Wed Based on Tepper's Call

Tepper is a CMU dude who trades for a living. Everytime I see these big money players making comments about the market, I make the assumption that they are doing it for their benefit, not ours. No different than when Goldman Sachs publicizes their market calls. Stick with you plan. I find it humouro...
by Random Musings
Thu May 21, 2020 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8739

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they ...
by Random Musings
Thu May 21, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8739

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Alchemist wrote:
Thu May 21, 2020 7:27 am
That is going to be a hard no from me, Comrade Malkiel.
I agree. Bogle built Vanguard to give a fair shake to investors. China, with a history of allowing dubious accounting procedures, using dilution, currency manipulation, and more have no interest in giving investors a fair shake.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon May 11, 2020 8:46 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Shrinking Jeans in Washer/Dryer
Replies: 21
Views: 949

Re: Shrinking Jeans in Washer/Dryer

My washing machine has the Costanza cycle which is excellent for shrinkage.

The water temp has to be set on cold.

RM
by Random Musings
Sun May 10, 2020 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63041

Re: We've seen the lows in March and we will never see those lows again

Perhaps. I'm sure after late 2002, no one though we would revisit those lows, but we did and a bit more.

Right now, I am not seeing any market pullback to earlier 2020 lows with current Fed policy, but perhaps events we can't forsee in the future may change that thought.

RM
by Random Musings
Sun May 10, 2020 8:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your alternative plans this summer if it was travel?
Replies: 65
Views: 5311

Re: What are your alternative plans this summer if it was travel?

Going to travel domestically by car. Friends oceanside house earlier in summer and by July/August going down south again. Here in PA, counties are going to reopen next week before governor approval, I expect more to follow nationwide. No plans to visit any states where our most populated cities are ...
by Random Musings
Sat May 09, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?
Replies: 169
Views: 13030

Re: Will "work from home" destroy the commercial real estate market?

It will create some excess capacity and reduce the need for future construction a bit. I have come to the conclusion, since I must work at home, that I could easily work from home 50 percent of the time. Being in a corporate office, there are times I need to be there, but with Teams and just calling...
by Random Musings
Fri May 08, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should you tip landscapers?
Replies: 51
Views: 3222

Re: Should you tip landscapers?

I don't understand the "I got it--and you ain't gettin' any" approach of some here. Really? For $60, I feel like Rockefeller, AND they feel a little less like grunts. No one said that. It just that that’s not the type of "service" people tip for, nor are they expected to. I’ve worked that type of w...
by Random Musings
Wed Apr 22, 2020 9:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Exit Interview
Replies: 78
Views: 5760

Re: Exit Interview

I would just make sure that you are getting all benefits due to you, like vacation pay, and move on. HR works for the company and represents their interests, not yours.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?
Replies: 463
Views: 15861

Re: Bird watchers – what birds are you seeing?

A partial albino robin is regularly visiting my MIL's house. The chest is colored, but not strongly.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Apr 20, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How does the accounting profession fare during recessions?
Replies: 25
Views: 2266

Re: How does the accounting profession fare during recessions?

Regardless of economic conditions, accounting is an accrual world.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Us government buying their own bonds?
Replies: 27
Views: 1779

Re: Us government buying their own bonds?

The Fed is buying junk bonds too. Equities may be a possible purchase if them seem it necessary. Their balance sheet has definitely gotten beefy recently. If asset prices deflate, it's okay because they are playing with other people's money via national debt.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.
Replies: 684
Views: 55506

Re: How to get Toilet Paper ? seriously.

Our Costco had TP for the first time in a while. Paper towels are always in stock. If will be interesting to see if the anticipated meat crunch will show up in a couple weeks time.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Apple Released a New Low-cost Iphone
Replies: 172
Views: 14294

Re: Apple Released a New Low-cost Iphone

Apple wants their cut of the stimulus checks. With that price point, it will work.

Better than paying off debt or buying food or medicine.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 17, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Eating out after lock-down is lifted
Replies: 112
Views: 10185

Re: Eating out after lock-down is lifted

Some will rush back to the restaurants, I will let them be the beta testers. With the various stages of opening up, the lack of seniors in the restaurants will impact the bottom line for certain restaurants.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 17, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?
Replies: 386
Views: 32132

Re: Head Fakes and Dead Cats .. your thoughts on the rally?

Since I am not smarter than the market, I am relatively at my target allocation. However, I did a slight tactical adjustment on my equity exposure by swapping some US equity for gold stocks, with the Fed policy being very accommodating. If Ben B. used helicopters, what are they using now?

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting for Great Depression
Replies: 23
Views: 2511

Re: Backtesting for Great Depression

As I said, I believe the OP's concerns are on point. I do not believe the OP is overly pessimistic. I agree with OP that these challenges are unprecedented and are underestimated by most people. Another Great Depression is possible. It is a mistake to assume it won't happen again simply because the...
by Random Musings
Mon Apr 06, 2020 10:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting for Great Depression
Replies: 23
Views: 2511

Re: Backtesting for Great Depression

As I said, I believe the OP's concerns are on point. I do not believe the OP is overly pessimistic. I agree with OP that these challenges are unprecedented and are underestimated by most people. Another Great Depression is possible. It is a mistake to assume it won't happen again simply because the...
by Random Musings
Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296691

Re: Coronavirus and the market

India, where a lot of our supply comes from, is banning all exports. India Bans All Exports of Virus Drug Often Touted by Trump India banned all exports of hydroxychloroquine, a malaria drug that President Donald Trump has repeatedly touted as a “game changer” in the fight against Covid-19. Exports...
by Random Musings
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?
Replies: 268
Views: 16328

Re: What percentage of your paycheck do you invest?

My family puts 10% of each paycheck into our investment accounts. We are looking to increase this to 15% moving forward. How about all of you? Same as you: 10-15% of base pay. I’m all over the map with what I do with my annual bonus. I’ll bet you guy were not expecting the kind of answers your gett...
by Random Musings
Sun Apr 05, 2020 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret
Replies: 77
Views: 9596

Re: Your Investment Adviser’s Dirty Secret

Rick, I was torn between your financial article and Heidi Klum's as the best in the magazine.

Plus, she makes less people upset.

Nothing personal :wink:

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 3949
Views: 296691

Re: Coronavirus and the market

The Dallas Federal Reserve’s Manufacturing Survey Outlook received comments from the food industry that “if high demand for packaged food remains at current levels, serious shortages should be expected in May.” The issue isn’t the food supply, but the materials used to package it which is sourced g...
by Random Musings
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?
Replies: 254
Views: 20097

Re: What are you doing for haircuts due to coronavirus shutdown?

Like most people on this board, Mr. Market took care of my portfolio haircut.

And no, I did not leave a tip.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Apr 04, 2020 10:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?
Replies: 271
Views: 17130

Re: What will you do first, once COVID pandemic is over?

Hug my Mom. And hug her again.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4102

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

Through today, gold. Think it was around $300 ounce back at that time, so over a five bagger. I think Dow was 10,000 or so. No, not looking, but I remember useless facts. RM Yes, I was going to say gold as well. This is the correct answer, though many Bogleheads seem loathe to admit it. Gold has pe...
by Random Musings
Sat Apr 04, 2020 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?
Replies: 114
Views: 6260

Re: Should I keep paying fitness center fees while it is closed?

Too many variables as why many people have different thoughts. For example, if out of work or taking manditory pay cut, have to take care of yourself first. Let alone, everyone is in different states of the accumulation phase in their savings. If you are financially secure, you have the choice to he...
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 03, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes
Replies: 84
Views: 7488

Re: CNBC: Investors Should Be Buying Individual Stocks, Not Indexes

I'll stick with index/passive funds.

Didn't see any specific recommendations from him, so all talk.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Apr 03, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?
Replies: 97
Views: 4102

Re: If you could go back to 1/1/2000 and buy just one asset category -- gold, stocks, or bonds -- which would you pick?

Through today, gold. Think it was around $300 ounce back at that time, so over a five bagger. I think Dow was 10,000 or so. No, not looking, but I remember useless facts.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Mar 28, 2020 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?
Replies: 155
Views: 20823

Re: Where's Warren Buffett During This Crisis?

Maybe he's watching his Buffett indicator in his spare time. :oops:

Practice what you preach.

RM
by Random Musings
Sat Mar 28, 2020 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Is The SP 500 Future
Replies: 32
Views: 3095

Re: Where Is The SP 500 Future

NotTooDeepLearning wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 7:48 pm
On 3/26/2060 I predict the S&P 500 to be at 3,141,592,653.
At that lofty level, you can have your pi and eat it too.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Mar 27, 2020 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [NY Times:] I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.
Replies: 56
Views: 9951

Re: I Became a Disciplined Investor Over 40 Years. The Virus Broke Me In 40 Days.

Uncertainty caused this quick drop. I believe the risk, even with the stimulus package, is if a different type of uncertainty comes up from this virus. It could be extreme, like an unfavorable mutation, or more subtle, like consumers not just jumping back into business as usual mode. Talking to peop...
by Random Musings
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates and Holding Cash instead of bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1517

Re: Negative Interest Rates and Holding Cash instead of bonds

One concern I have is that with the stimulus package that our government will be issuing a lot of debt. Perhaps a supply shock that will make yields go up.

RM
by Random Musings
Thu Mar 26, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So bottom is probably behind us....right?
Replies: 709
Views: 63041

Re: So bottom is probably behind us....right?

I'm pretty confident that the market bottom is behind me. If we get to those 73-74 lows, we are in a heck of a lot of trouble.

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Mar 23, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20257

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

FWIW, I was a long term holder of 2040 2.125%, I partially backed up the truck on that one as I bought below par. Today, at 137 and something I thought it was time to unload it. With the Fed policy and the belief that the world isn't going to end, I think there will be opportunities to back up the t...
by Random Musings
Sat Mar 21, 2020 8:54 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?
Replies: 56
Views: 3744

Re: Have you been personally affected by supply chain problems?

As an older person so in a vulnerable group, I'd like to shop when the stores are not jammed with people, but that's impossible currently. I've seen headlines of some stores starting to have "senior hours" at the start of the day. Hopefully that becomes a thing. Only problem is some of the grocery ...
by Random Musings
Fri Mar 20, 2020 10:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 18785
Views: 2626438

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

Another bad close today. So as I discussed earlier regarding 2450 and that being resistance on the upper trend line. If you were paying attention to the markets, you would have seen the bulls tried to make a run for it this morning. Obviously it failed, once the bears realized the bulls didn't have...
by Random Musings
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who do you follow for market insights ?
Replies: 49
Views: 2598

Re: Who do you follow for market insights ?

The Magic Eight Ball.

Short, concise commentary. Think it would have been a great elf on Wall Street Week.

RM
by Random Musings
Fri Mar 20, 2020 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: End of corporate stock buybacks??
Replies: 75
Views: 4474

Re: End of corporate stock buybacks??

The problem is stock buybacks or repurchases is when executives or boards of directors are compensated based on targets such as earnings per share (EPS). All else being equal if the number of shares on the secondary market decreases, the price of the stock increases and so does EPS by default. So e...
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Itching to increase my stock allocation during the bear market
Replies: 21
Views: 1314

Re: Itching to increase my stock allocation during the bear market

After you weather your first bear market or while it is still in progress?

RM
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The fourth fund
Replies: 6
Views: 463

Re: The fourth fund

Commodities. Being a DIY, I buy an equal weight basket of Bottled Water, Toilet Paper, Clorox Wipes and Paper Towels. 0% ER, so that's a win. I'm glad I was early to the game, because it is all the rage today. The only problem is that with the market being down so far and so fast, rebalancing has be...
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 8:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not liquidate?
Replies: 48
Views: 4367

Re: Why not liquidate?

If the market for sure is falling for at least a few weeks Why is this sure? Stocks prices are based on expectations. We already expect millions dead, months of social distancing and the results on the economy, 20% unemployment has been floated. It's not that hard to imagine a world in which the wo...
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: As of today (Mar 18, 2020), MDY=-40%, IWM=-41%, SPY=-26.48%
Replies: 14
Views: 1012

Re: As of today (Mar 18, 2020), MDY=-40%, IWM=-41%, SPY=-26.48%

Roughly, I think TSM is down around 26% and TISM 33-34%. I think TBM is now under water for the year, but BND is a little worse. So, the classic 60/40 (using 75% VTI on the equity side) is down around 17%. A 40/60 would be down around 12%. I believe Vanguard uses 60/40 on their TR equity U.S./Int'l ...
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.
Replies: 491
Views: 41550

Re: The Calm Post - Stay the course thread.

I have stayed the course, although I am more conservatively invested. I have not rebalanced yet due to the waterfall decline but have lowered my duration considerably on the bond side as well as reduced corporate exposure. Basically, when rates were under 1% across the board I was trying to wrap my ...
by Random Musings
Wed Mar 18, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.
Replies: 183
Views: 29392

Re: Deploying your emergency fund to buy stocks? Think again.

An EF is exactly for emergencies. Everyone should have that as part of their written investment plan.

RM
by Random Musings
Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 20% unemployment?
Replies: 88
Views: 6711

Re: 20% unemployment?

This is the downside of an overly weighted service economy. Perhaps we should start making a little more stuff again and diversify our economy. I think we will, but after a generation or so people will forget and will be more interested in saving a few percent and be at the mercy of others for criti...
by Random Musings
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trillion dollar stimulus - effects on the economy and stocks
Replies: 6
Views: 662

Re: Trillion dollar stimulus - effects on the economy and stocks

Perhaps gold stocks will have their day. These are crazy times and people sometimes throw dollars at an asset class just because, well just because.

R.
by Random Musings
Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17
Replies: 19
Views: 1507

Re: Charting the carnage. Price drops Jan 1 - Mar 17

unclescrooge wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:11 pm
guyinlaw wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:03 pm
z3r0c00l wrote:
Tue Mar 17, 2020 6:00 pm
VBR back at 2013 levels :shock:
I am buying small cap value. But worried we might end up at 2010 levels.
Ditto.
What about 2008 levels. :?:

RM
by Random Musings
Mon Mar 16, 2020 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 4905
Views: 423388

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

60/40 slice and dice portfolios will be compared to other 60/40 portfolios. Bond funds with a certain duration will be compared to a ST/IT/LT benchmark and will depend if corps or treasuries or whatever. There is no real benchmark for this leveraged strategy, it just is what it is. Plus, there are a...