Search found 6274 matches

by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH a la max12377 style with self directed 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 238

Re: TLH a la max12377 style with self directed 401k

There is debate about whether purchases in a 401(k) can cause a wash sale. I would not volunteer to create a wash sale in that case. Is that true? I would assume it is a wash sale as the spirit of the IRS rule shouldn't matter on what "envelope" the moves are made from. Any tax or IRS agents out th...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Super Aggressive MF or ETFs?
Replies: 17
Views: 669

Re: Super Aggressive MF or ETFs?

In general, Bogleheads are not the "super aggressive" type... :happy In general, +1 Please realize that taking risk is not always rewarded. Not me, I'm pretty aggressive. The difference is understanding risks that come with a premium and those that don't. Going small cap takes on increased risk and...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLH a la max12377 style with self directed 401k
Replies: 6
Views: 238

Re: TLH a la max12377 style with self directed 401k

There is debate about whether purchases in a 401(k) can cause a wash sale. I would not volunteer to create a wash sale in that case. Is that true? I would assume it is a wash sale as the spirit of the IRS rule shouldn't matter on what "envelope" the moves are made from. Any tax or IRS agents out th...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 20
Views: 1060

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

These were their forecasts 6/30/11-6/30/18 https://pensionpartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/gmo4.png Here's my chart of how their forecasts compared with the actual results: https://imgur.com/qoxj7Kh.png The correlation coefficient between the forecasts and the observations 0.05. That is to s...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 20
Views: 1060

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

I think the basic flaw in their methodology is that they are forecasting significant decline in S&P 500 operating profit margins and a valuation multiple decline. While latter seems justified, I am not so sure on former. I totally get their POV that profit margins are the most mean reverting series...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Are You Dumping Netflix?
Replies: 60
Views: 3018

Re: Are You Dumping Netflix?

So one is complaining about spending an extra $24 a YEAR on x? Are you that efficient with your purchases that is the lowest hanging fruit in your living expenses? I would think that would be the very top of that tree. There are probably HUNDREDS of things you can do to save that more then $24 per m...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 5:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: School staff threatened to call social worker
Replies: 54
Views: 2295

Re: School staff threatened to call social worker

What do the school board guidelines say? Have them quote the exact sections of the school board policy that you are in violation of. Then figure out is it a "shall" phrasing or more a discretionary enforcement. If it the former I would think you are tough out of luck unless you can convince the scho...
by staythecourse
Tue Jan 15, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 7
Views: 668

Re: The Three-Fund Portfolio

The answer is it may or may not. I am not sure how many times I have to say this on this forum, but either I am being ignored or folks simply do not understand the equation for return of a portfolio. The return of ANY portfolio is simply the summation of the individual subassets at their weighted av...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 14, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: One book for my neice, a young mom.
Replies: 20
Views: 1163

Re: One book for my neice, a young mom.

Not sure it can get any easier yet complete then Allen Roth "How a second grader beat Wall Street."

Working, married, and 3 kids at home she doesn't have time for anything complex!

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: To buy new home or not
Replies: 17
Views: 1131

Re: To buy new home or not

My answer is NO. It isn't about needing a new house. The only need will be when you need to take care of your parent, but A LOT can happen before that, i.e. they can die, need to be put in nursing home, their needs will influence the layout of the house you will need, etc... So right now it is only ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping
Replies: 25
Views: 1804

Re: U.S. economy could slip from top spot in 2020 and keep slipping

More then interesting about the slope of change from the 1990 to even now is actually how consistent Japan has been in GDP growth over this ENTIRE time yet there stock market stays in shambles. Not an economists, but that doesn't seem to jive. Whats the story with that one? Also, how bad U.K. has be...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 14, 2019 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 462

Re: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?

Much thanks for all confirming it is okay to rollover to IRA. All the money is traditional (employEE and employER) so all monies will be going to traditional IRA. You likely can not just rollover the TD Ameritrade Individual 401k to an IRA unless you are >= age 59 1/2. A one-participant 401k is sti...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 462

Re: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?

Much thanks for all confirming it is okay to rollover to IRA. All the money is traditional (employEE and employER) so all monies will be going to traditional IRA.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?
Replies: 45
Views: 3585

Re: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?

I think much of the administrative issues people have brought up on this thread (most seemingly from second hand experience) are more of a problem with those who are in administration. I have been primarily clinical and really don't get bogged down with any of that stuff. I come in at 8am, do my wo...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 52
Views: 3287

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

How to avoid temptation? Make a plan and stick to it. Agree. If you haven't been able to stop in the last 20 years I don't see you stopping EVER. So 2 options exist: 1. Let someone else handle your portfolio or 2. Place specific guidelines. If you choose the latter maybe invest 90% in a bogleheads ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 462

Re: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?

Question: What rollover options are there to rollover that previous TD ameritrade account? Can I roll it over to my IRAs sitting at Vanguard? I don't see why not. Or is the only option to rollover to my Vanguard solo 401k account? Vanguard's Solo 401k is reported not to accept rollovers, even from ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?
Replies: 45
Views: 3585

Re: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?

In exchange you are getting into a situation you have admin. incompetence to the upteenth level in the government Having spent a career dealing with management incompetence in a mega corp, I always find such generalizations to be somewhat of an exaggeration. Not if you are comparing a private medic...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?
Replies: 7
Views: 462

RE: What to do with previous solo 401k?

Hi all, Looking for some guidance. I had a solo401k with TD ameritrade when I started by solo medical practice as a solo prop at that time. This I had and contributed until last year. Last year I incorporated into an single member LLC. I opened up a Vanguard solo 401k when I started that LLC and con...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:12 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate as part of overall investment plan
Replies: 37
Views: 2563

Re: Real estate as part of overall investment plan

I would LOVE to add direct real estate to my investments, but... I have no clue on how to manage it. I don't like the illiquidity I don't like the lack of diversification I don't like the single company risk (myself) I don't want to ADD another job to my daily life on top of my profession, husband,...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate as part of overall investment plan
Replies: 37
Views: 2563

Re: Real estate as part of overall investment plan

We have one rental and are shopping another right now. It's pretty hard to go wrong if you 1) get a deal and 2) pay cash. If you can't do both of those things, I personally wouldn't do it. I'm sorry that comes off as pretty naive. If you can't go wrong with it and all you need is cash then why are ...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 13, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 62
Views: 3313

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

Actually, I was trying to flesh out the investment versus insurance distinction used by another member. I gather that gold is an investment when owned in anticipation of normal market and economic cycles but is insurance when owned mainly for black swan events. I am not sure where these urban legen...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare
Replies: 119
Views: 5000

Re: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare

Yes, he still doesn't get it. His institution is allowed to charge facility fees ( multiples of the doctors fees), which is how he is paid. A private practice doc, however, is not eligible to charge facility fees and therefore has to pay for their IT services out of the fees paid from CPT codes for...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Real estate as part of overall investment plan
Replies: 37
Views: 2563

Re: Real estate as part of overall investment plan

I would LOVE to add direct real estate to my investments, but... I have no clue on how to manage it. I don't like the illiquidity I don't like the lack of diversification I don't like the single company risk (myself) I don't want to ADD another job to my daily life on top of my profession, husband, ...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)
Replies: 124
Views: 6742

Re: Emerging markets cannot be fairly valued and investors are better off elsewhere: Change my mind :)

Am I claiming I know something that the market doesn't? Certainly not Yes, you literally are. Your contention depends on the unproven assumption "emerging markets cannot be fairly valued," whereas the market thinks that they can be. You're welcome to operate under that assumption, or course, but yo...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?
Replies: 62
Views: 3313

Re: Any thoughts on the role of Gold in your portfolio?

I think there is a role for gold as long as you are not expecting to be fooled and expect what I have always called looking for the "holy grail of investing", i.e. equity like returns for low to no correlation to equities. Like CCF and many other alternatives... yes it adds a more efficient, less vo...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages
Replies: 18
Views: 1610

Re: Using TSM for Essential Liabilities- TSM's worst rolling averages

Thank you for the interesting paper AND your original work based on that work. Much to ponder and hope this thread gets A LOT of input as there seems to be a lot of meat to chew on so to speak. Haven't gotten to your work yet, but did read the original paper that you quoted. Sure you are aware, but ...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What to do after maxing out all tax advantaged options?
Replies: 33
Views: 4151

Re: What to do after maxing out all tax advantaged options?

For the high saver it is all about how much you save in taxable. If you considering private school, paying for expensive colleges, grad school in future (for yourself or your kids), etc... keep on plowing money into your 529. The gift tax exemption per year is 14k/ year per person per kid. That is 2...
by staythecourse
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:39 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?
Replies: 90
Views: 9674

Re: Millionaire by 40 and How you Did it?

This has been hashed (consider reading the comprehensive net worth thread), but it comes down to mathematics and savings rate (LBYM) in almost all circumstances. What return you have gotten (many 40 YO have ridden the latest bull market successfully whereas the current 30 YO shouldn't count on the ...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 11, 2019 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Company relocating and not interested - next steps ?
Replies: 48
Views: 3649

Re: Company relocating and not interested - next steps ?

What's the problem? Just stay until you get fired for not relocating. Then look for a new job. If you are financially secure then find ANY job for health insurance until you ride it out until retirement. Sounds easy enough. Heck to uber driving until you find another gig. Money is not an object so t...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 11, 2019 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?
Replies: 45
Views: 3585

Re: Stay in private practice medical or take VA job offer?

I’d also imagine switching from private practice to a VA job is going to be frustrating in ways you dont understand yet. If there is one thing I have learned life it is ALL about tradeoffs. Everyone seems to be tunnel vision on just one aspect of a decision (in this case commute) and puts blinders ...
by staythecourse
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?
Replies: 64
Views: 4260

Re: Are REITs better to purchase when interest rates are high or low?

Sorry to lazy to read all the replies so apologize in advance if I am repeating. I believe Vanguard or someone else did a study showing there is NO correlation between REIT price changes and interest rates. So it would seem this is one I would put in the urban legend section. Only makes sense as it ...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?
Replies: 146
Views: 10986

Re: Around 43K in dividends last year - feel good about it ?

My portfolio threw around 43K total dividends in 2018 ( was around 36K in 2017). Around 14 k is taxable. This number does not include cap gains distribution by mutual funds. On one hand it feels good to see this stream of income coming in , but on the other I am still down by 90K for 2018 even afte...
by staythecourse
Thu Jan 10, 2019 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best way to match paint?
Replies: 22
Views: 1426

Re: Best way to match paint?

Agree with above. It may not be an issue of the paint being a good match or not with the old paint. Paint sitting on the wall is exposed to the environment. The dust, dirt, oil, hand prints, fading from sunlight, etc.. can all affect the final paint color after some time. Figure out if you can eithe...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 09, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare
Replies: 119
Views: 5000

Re: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare

Just because an office agrees to see medicare doesn't mean they have to see all medicare. Most offices limit the amount of medicare or medicaid (if they are willing at all) based on being profitable. Why would anyone running a for profit see more of a less profitable segment of the population then ...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members
Replies: 87
Views: 6411

Re: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members

This post is timely as my wife and I are debating having a third. Well, she's doing the debating and I'm just saying no. Between 2 kids (1.8 and 3.8 years old) and a dog, at least one of whom and sometimes two will wake up in the middle of the night, every single night for the past 4 years, at leas...
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 09, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare
Replies: 119
Views: 5000

Re: Diagnosing Knee Problems over the Phone - Medicare

Just because an office agrees to see medicare doesn't mean they have to see all medicare. Most offices limit the amount of medicare or medicaid (if they are willing at all) based on being profitable. Why would anyone running a for profit see more of a less profitable segment of the population then a...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members
Replies: 87
Views: 6411

Re: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members

We have 3-- a girl and two boys. Ages are 10, 8, and 7. We were torn about whether or not to have the third. The question we asked ourselves when we were trying to decide whether to have the third or stop at 2 was "will I regret not having the 3rd when I'm 80?". We knew that it would be hard having...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 07, 2019 2:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members
Replies: 87
Views: 6411

Re: Child # 3 - seeking advice from older members

We thought about a third for a little while. Our second has developed some odd vomiting issue that was quite hard to diagnose and treat. The time spent and emotional time spent on it causing us to neglect the first a bit was enough to realize we couldn't have a third and give the same attention. Som...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 07, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fiancée Thinks I'm Putting Too Much Towards Retirement/ Not Enough Towards Short-Term Goals
Replies: 136
Views: 10500

Re: Fiance Thinks I'm Putting Too Much Towards Retirement/ Not Enough Towards Short-Term Goals

I think both of you need to sit down and figure out short term (0-2 years), intermediate (3-10), and long term (10+ years) goald. Keep in mind the BIGGEST costs are: throwing wedding, having kids, buying house, and retirement. Those conversations ALL need to be had NOW before being married. When do ...
by staythecourse
Mon Jan 07, 2019 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: master suite features for addition
Replies: 66
Views: 3365

Re: master suite features for addition

Radiant heat, storage space that is hidden (cabinetry) for towels, toiletries, etc... make up vanity spot for wife and plugs in spots that blowdryer and curlers can reach. Place for hamper that is out of the way and hidden. Door to toilet separating it from the rest of the bathroom. The last is such...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 06, 2019 8:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Anyone affected by the government shutdown?
Replies: 35
Views: 2981

Re: Anyone affected by the government shutdown?

Sorry about the effects of the shutdown. To make it actionable what I have learned from this is: 1. Many risks exists that folks don't even think of that only seem obvious AFTER they show up, i.e. government jobs are supposed to be incredibly secure and 2. Reinforces EVERYONE needs a good long EF (6...
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice Regarding Out-of-Network Billing
Replies: 9
Views: 690

Re: Advice Regarding Out-of-Network Billing

Easiest way is to go to a hospital system that employs ALL their doctors. Think large academic hospitals (those that have residents/ fellows) or large hospital systems. Still need to check with the anesthesia, rads, and pathology departments to makes sure they are in network for the latter. Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sun Jan 06, 2019 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 19
Views: 1591

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Great charts. Definitely explains the out performance of the 3 Fund investors out there. With LCG having done so well from the bottom in 2009 to now (400% return) no wonder it is has shot out every other portfolio.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for optimism?
Replies: 81
Views: 3054

Re: Any reason for optimism?

I've posted this probably a couple dozen times but folks don't seem to get the data.... 1. Folks predictions are never right. 2. Autocorrelation of every subasset class from one year to the next is ZERO. That means whatever happened in 2018 has no influence on this year's returns. It may be flat, be...
by staythecourse
Sun Dec 30, 2018 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?
Replies: 78
Views: 2098

Re: Algos/HFT and the media hurt the retail investor ?

I think your premise is wrong. Algos/HFT and the media actually help the retail investor immensely. Agreed. Any HFT only helps make the market MORE efficient. In the end any advantage active management gets will ironically be another reason the markets become more and more efficient making positive...
by staythecourse
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)
Replies: 13
Views: 1037

Re: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)

I'm surprised at the responses with so little information provided. Is there a consensus that REITs are unilaterally universally bad? I was just considering buying some. No. The question is not about holding REIT. The question is about holding REIT in a taxable account. REITs are NOT tax-efficient ...
by staythecourse
Sun Dec 30, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Father with Dementia Took a Full IRA Distribution
Replies: 56
Views: 5478

Re: Father with Dementia Took a Full IRA Distribution

Nothing to add, but another cautionary tale on the bad relationship of advanced age and financial decision making. EVERYONE thinks it only happens to someone else, but that is a mistake that happens over and over again. This is my no.1 fear for myself and our finances and I am only 42. This should b...
by staythecourse
Sun Dec 30, 2018 9:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)
Replies: 13
Views: 1037

Re: any reason not to sell my REIT (VNQ)

If they are tax inefficient and you finally realized it (not sure how you could have been a boglehead prior and not be aware of asset location issues) then yes sell it now. Even WHEN (not if) they go back up the tax inefficiency will be a drag on long term returns.

Good luck.
by staythecourse
Sat Dec 29, 2018 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Opinions sought $3.5 M Net Worth
Replies: 76
Views: 8882

Re: Opinions sought $3.5 M Net Worth

1. Submit your resignation on January 2. 2. Post asking for portfolio advice by following this format: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=6212 Agreed. Joking aside you are in a place where you can decide... 1. Cut back to part time. Money doesn't matter as long as it covers your l...
by staythecourse
Sat Dec 29, 2018 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?
Replies: 68
Views: 6787

Re: Why stay the course? Why not sell all?

I am trying to tell people not to chase performance and to take a longer term view. A lot of portfolios around here will be down 4% to 7% for 2018 and that isn't the end of the world. Agreed. My bigger point is if one was using the time horizon of 1 year then yes the returns for this one year would...