Search found 118 matches

by Raging Mage
Wed Jan 01, 2014 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest
Replies: 160
Views: 26554

Re: Bogleheads 2014 Hedge fund contest

After a successful year in which our hedge fund outperformed the Total Stock Market benchmark*, The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund will continue into 2014. Last year proved the value of a true computer-driven random stock selection method over alternative randomization methods (typically involving blindfolds, darts, and/or various mammals), and we're confident** that our proprietary system*** will continue to deliver superior results for our clients****.


Long:
ARMSTRONG WORLD INDS IN (AWI)
NOBLE ENERGY INC (NBL)

Short:
IDEX CORP (IEX)
REINSURANCE GRP OF AMER (RGA)


* (+32.1% return vs. +30.9% TSM. Source: http://libra-investments.com/hf/bh.html)
** (not)
*** (Excel RAND function)
**** (non-existent)
by Raging Mage
Wed Jan 02, 2013 4:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What was your 2012 return?
Replies: 275
Views: 30667

Re: What was your 2012 return?

I'll play.

2012 rate of return: 16.0%
Stock/bond allocation: 83/17 (age in bonds minus 10)
by Raging Mage
Mon Dec 31, 2012 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Replies: 151
Views: 23833

Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

dmcmahon wrote:
Raging Mage wrote: These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
My team of skilled dart-throwing chimps says "It's on like Donkey Kong!"
Heh. Chimps versus computers? Sounds like fun. Or perhaps we're really on the same side if we made blind picks instead of trying to out-guess the market. =)
by Raging Mage
Mon Dec 31, 2012 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest
Replies: 151
Views: 23833

Re: Bogleheads 2013 Hedgefund Contest

It's been a very long time since I posted at BH, but I couldn't resist jumping into the fray.

The Quicker-Picker-Maybe-Upper Fund

Long:
LUV (SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO)
ERII (ENERGY RECOVERY INC)

Short:
AA (ALCOA INC)
CTXS (CITRIX SYSTEMS INC)

These selections were made entirely at random via computer (like a lottery "quick pick"). I used Excel's RAND function to generate the results.
by Raging Mage
Sat Feb 18, 2012 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Can you sum-up your investing philosophy in 10 words?"
Replies: 120
Views: 11476

Re: "Can you sum-up your investing philosophy in 10 words?"

Noobvestor wrote:Diversify all the things!
Haha, this was the best post, IMO.

Here's mine:
"He who gathers money little by little makes it grow." - Proverbs 13:11
by Raging Mage
Sat Feb 18, 2012 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Help with a friend's 401k!
Replies: 5
Views: 2385

Re: Help with a friend's 401k!

If that were my 401(k) plan, I'd stick with just the Schwab S&P 500 index fund (SWPPX) and the PIMCO Total Return fund (PTTRX), and use an IRA for other investments (such as an international index fund, a TIPS fund, etc.). Everything else on that list appears to have too high an expense ratio to be worthwhile.

Duckie's suggestion about doing more research on the target date funds is wise. If their expense ratios are low, they might be good alternatives.
by Raging Mage
Mon Feb 13, 2012 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Post your asset allocation here:
Replies: 136
Views: 16567

Re: Post your asset allocation here:

It's been a long time since I posted here! *blows dust off forum account* Age: 27 Stock/Bond Target: Age minus 10 (83/17) My current allocation is: (percentages may be off due to rounding) 67% - Fidelity 401(k) comprised of: 30% - S&P 500 Index Commingled Pool (ER .05%) 8% - FSEVX (Fidelity Spartan Extended Market Index Advantage) 18% - FSPNX (Fidelity Spartan International Index Institutional) 11% - PTTRX (PIMCO Total Return Institutional) Unfortunately, my company doesn't offer any bond index funds (we only have PTTRX). I'm loving the stock index offerings, though! 33% - TD Ameritrade Traditional IRA comprised of: 6% - VBR (Vanguard Small-Cap Value) 6% - IJS (iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Value) 7% - VNQ (Vanguard REIT) 1% - EWC (iSha...
by Raging Mage
Wed Sep 07, 2011 2:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Market Cap of Value Stocks in the Stock Market
Replies: 18
Views: 2095

You might find what you're looking for here:

http://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Approxim ... ock_Market

If I'm not mistaken, stocks are normally divided within the Morningstar grid so that value, blend, and growth each account for 1/3 of TSM.
by Raging Mage
Tue Sep 06, 2011 7:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feedback on this doomsday blog entry?
Replies: 7
Views: 1824

You don't need to convince me of the long-term merit of stocks, but thanks for the words of encouragement! I'm 26 and using an age-10 formula, so my portfolio has a stock/bond split of 84:16. My ratio of U.S. to international stocks is about 2:1, and roughly 25% of my equities are small cap/value. Trust me, your advice is already in use. :wink:
by Raging Mage
Tue Sep 06, 2011 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Long-Term Treasuries - Now More Than Ever
Replies: 32
Views: 4695

It seems that I let this thread fall off the map for the last couple weeks. Whoops! Grayfox, my source is Larry Swedroe's book referenced earlier in the thread. The chart he provided for Treasuries looks like this: Duration / Correlation (S&P 500, '64-'03) / Correlation (EAFE, '69-'03) 1m / 0.02 / -0.11 6m / 0.03 / -0.11 1y / 0.05 / -0.18 5y / 0.20 / -0.02 20y / 0.26 / 0.09 The difference isn't that big, but it does leave me curious as to why it exists, especially since LTTs have seen such larger counter-moves to the broad stock market than ITTs as of late. I'm definitely with you when you say that a single number doesn't provide enough meaningful information. Accordingly, I went digging through some old posts from Robert T per Noobvest...
by Raging Mage
Tue Sep 06, 2011 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Feedback on this doomsday blog entry?
Replies: 7
Views: 1824

Like the blog writer, I've only been investing for under a year (and this is a great time to point out that those of us in this group are not experts--we have a lot to learn). What I've observed in my really short time of investing is this: doomsayers, as a whole, currently do not agree on what "flavor" of doom the U.S. is going to taste, if any. For every gold-bug warning of imminent hyperinflation and the death of the dollar, there's a "deflationist" warning of a tidal wide of credit defaults that the government is powerless to overcome with printed money. If you're going to choose one of these sides, you'd better guess right, because the assets that perform well in one scenario may suffer in the other. As for me, I re...
by Raging Mage
Mon Sep 05, 2011 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Small-Cap Value is Enough?
Replies: 182
Views: 29643

stevewolfe wrote:Vanguard growth, blend and value small cap indexes all changed on May 16, 2003. The net difference in before and after for the two funds was separated by about 21 basis points.
I thought I'd look into this a bit myself--here's a chart showing the performance of Vanguard SCV and SCG since 5/16/2003:

VISVX vs. VISGX

It looks as if nearly all of Vanguard SCG's outperformance during that period came within the last 2-3 years. Before that, their performance was rather close. This was also true for the iShares ETFs (IJS and IJT) during the same period:

IJS vs. IJT
by Raging Mage
Wed Aug 31, 2011 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anybody think that gold may be the next bubble?
Replies: 29
Views: 3662

Re: Does anybody think that gold may be the next bubble?

If so, why not try to short it with 5% of play money? The quick "newbie" answer is: Because predicting the tops and bottoms of market bubbles is extremely difficult. Even if one is confident that one has identified a bubble, shorting it is dangerous because there's no telling how much it will grow, or for how long, before it finally pops. Gold's price surge may be at its end, or only at its very beginning. It's impossible to know in advance which position is correct. One may guess correctly, but nobody actually knows. Gold is still a hated asset class. Just look at the posts on this forum, most people see it rising and just shrug it off as non-sense. We aren't even close to bubble levels yet. Be careful with this line of reasonin...
by Raging Mage
Wed Aug 24, 2011 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Long-Term Treasuries - Now More Than Ever
Replies: 32
Views: 4695

I think you figured it out correctly. When you mix a high volatility asset with a low volatility asset, the mix is 90% correlated with the high volatility asset. Someone on another thread proved this mathematically. So all portfolios with stocks + IT bonds are 90% correlated to the stock price movements. ST and IT Treasuries hardly budge, so they do no more than dilute the volatility of the stock market. You would need 80% or 90% IT Treasuries to seriously reduce the volatility of stocks. On the other hand, as your graph shows, LT Treasuries actually move counter to stocks during crises (flight to safety), and LT Treasuries are much higher volatility than IT and ST. Thanks for letting me know I'm not crazy! What I still haven't figured out...
by Raging Mage
Tue Aug 23, 2011 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case Against Long-Term Treasuries - Now More Than Ever
Replies: 32
Views: 4695

Here's a possibly silly question ( maybe it belongs on the "Help with Personal Investments" board, but I'll leave it here for now): Is there any reason why a young investor with a time horizon of ~40 years wouldn't want to pair up long-term treasuries with equities? So many of the books I've read from the Bogleheads' reading list recommend sticking with short- or intermediate-term bonds (such as those found in TBM), and while I have utilized a TBM fund in my IRA since I began investing, it just hasn't exhibited the behavior I desire so far. I appreciate that many investors use their bond holdings to reduce portfolio volatility and preserve wealth, but what I'm really clamoring for is a bond fund that moves more sharply in oppositi...
by Raging Mage
Thu Aug 18, 2011 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Funny portfolios
Replies: 8
Views: 1432

You could always buy BlackRock, Inc. and Southwestern Energy Company and have a

BLK SWN

Sorry, I couldn't resist. ;)
by Raging Mage
Wed Aug 17, 2011 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tell me why you don't like this form of market timing
Replies: 29
Views: 3325

#1 makes the entire plan a non-starter, in my estimation. What if you were starting your investment portfolio in, say, March 2009? Not that we're necessarily at such a point now, but you can probably tell what I'm getting at.
by Raging Mage
Wed Aug 17, 2011 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Schwab U.S. Aggregate Bond ETF (SCHZ)
Replies: 41
Views: 10174

SCHZ is probably fine in a Schwab account, but I'm partial to BND because it has much higher volume. The Schwab fund's ER advantage is miniscule and will probably be lost (and then some) in bid/ask spreads.
by Raging Mage
Mon Aug 15, 2011 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you like polls?
Replies: 14
Views: 1589

This is a refreshing change from all the threads and posts about gold. Thanks!

Oh, and the answer is definitely 42.
by Raging Mage
Fri Aug 12, 2011 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tired of: "Yay Market is Collapsing Shares Are Cheap!!!
Replies: 80
Views: 9811

Mel, was the lock removed from this thread intentionally, or was it never applied? Since the thread appears to be post-able right now, I just thought I'd ask in case the lock was overlooked by mistake.

Thanks for your efforts to keep discussion civil.
by Raging Mage
Mon Aug 08, 2011 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Will treasuries rise or fall on Monday (8/8/2011)?
Replies: 50
Views: 6829

I voted for "fall" (higher yields), which turned out to be wrong. This validates my belief that I shouldn't attempt to time the market. 8-)
by Raging Mage
Sat Aug 06, 2011 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. loses AAA credit rating from S&P
Replies: 286
Views: 34466

IMHO they're trying to see the "bright side" of this, and realize they've got a few decades left before they need to worry about withdrawing, so historically cheaper buys means a better end result. Whether that will be true or not in this case, only time will tell. This is exactly right--or at least, it describes the mindset I need to have as a young investor. I recall mentioning in another thread that being able to find contentment in both good and bad markets is key to being able to stay the course. Am I happy that investors closer to retirement, with their much larger portfolios, are suffering in this market? Definitely not. But do I need to see market drops such as this as opportunities to "buy lower" and improve my...
by Raging Mage
Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone Hitting Their Bands This Week?
Replies: 45
Views: 7288

Not yet, since I'm only testing my portfolio AA quarterly to see if my stock/bond allocation has deviated by 5% or more. (My next rebalancing date is in mid-September.)
by Raging Mage
Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quick Plug for Permanent Portfolio During Recent Volatility
Replies: 6
Views: 1276

I could never choose the PP for myself, because I just can't stomach the idea of devoting 50% of my AA to gold and cash, regardless of how those assets correlate with stocks/bonds. Beyond that, I'm just not confident the PP strategy will provide the returns I need over the long term.

Nevertheless, congrats on your results so far. There are, indeed, many roads to Dublin.
by Raging Mage
Thu Aug 04, 2011 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 42
Views: 5400

For me, the losses equate to less than a week of work. It's good to be a young investor right now! On a side note, the market "correction" is quite timely for me, seeing as my next 401(k) and IRA deposits are scheduled for tomorrow. 8-)
by Raging Mage
Wed Aug 03, 2011 4:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 200-day market timers ready?
Replies: 185
Views: 46076

realitytruthprozac wrote:200MA has been breached. Remember, greedy pigs get slaughtered.
Now I feel like having some bacon. Curse you, power of suggestion!
by Raging Mage
Sat Jul 30, 2011 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: August 2 = Good Buy
Replies: 73
Views: 9829

I have no idea what will happen after August 2nd, and I'm not concerned either way. If a debt/budget deal happens and the market recovers, great. On the other hand, if we end up witnessing a market crash, I'll be excited to buy at lower prices. Not that I'm actively rooting for the latter, but I figure an early market dip in a young investor's lifetime of saving will help more than it hurts. Beyond that, I feel that finding contentment in both good and bad market cycles helps with one's commitment to staying the course.
by Raging Mage
Tue Jul 26, 2011 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: ETF historical average bid/ask and premium/discount
Replies: 3
Views: 1521

You could try Fidelity's ETF screener, but I don't know if it will give you quite the level of detail you're looking for. If all you need is the one-month average bid/ask spread and premium/discount, it should do the trick. (It will work with Vanguard ETFs, not just iShares.)

http://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/e ... to/landing
by Raging Mage
Sun Jul 24, 2011 9:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value: IJS or VBR?
Replies: 17
Views: 8406

fishndoc wrote:The data on the Boglehead wiki is a lttle dated, but shows VISVX (VBR) at ~9.5% REITS, and current data from Fidelity shows IJS with 8.22% REITS.
http://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/g ... ymbols=IJS
I think the difference in REIT holdings is somewhat more significant than this. Fidelity's portfolio composition tool currently shows VBR at 13.94% REITs.
by Raging Mage
Sun Jul 24, 2011 6:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: small cap value: IJS or VBR?
Replies: 17
Views: 8406

Either choice is perfectly reasonable for one's allocation to SCV. Your choice might come down to which one is available for you to invest in at a lower cost. For example, IJS would be a better choice for Fidelity accounts since it's one of their 30 commission-free iShares ETFs, while those with Vanguard accounts would probably want VBR.

Full disclosure: I actually hold equal percentages of both in my TD Ameritrade IRA, since I can buy either one commission-free and I won't be doing any tax-loss harvesting in the retirement account. IJS is less REIT-centric and tilted more towards small-cap, while VBR has more holdings and is more heavily tilted towards value.
by Raging Mage
Sat Jul 23, 2011 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if you don't rebalance?
Replies: 130
Views: 14973

Re: Hi

I still do not understand why anyone before their 60's would want to rebalance or put any of their money in bonds. If I am invested 100% in equities (let's say small cap), I have decades before retirement, and I would want the maximum return on that money. Yes that money will fluctuate during the decades, but overall it is going to go up much more than if I had put any of it in bonds. Here's a quick thought from another 20-something (I'm only a couple of years ahead of you): You may be making the mistake of considering stocks and bonds in isolation. Yes, over very long periods, stocks have historically outperformed bonds. However, what you should be interested in is the historical risk-and-return frontier for portfolios with varying ratios...
by Raging Mage
Wed Jul 20, 2011 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1 in 20 Fund Investors Beat the Odds
Replies: 33
Views: 4348

Rick Ferri wrote: The other developed market funds I use are the Vanguard Pacific and the Vanguard Europe, which are both large cap core. Adding DFA International Small Value rounds out the developed market portfolio.
Interesting. Do you still recommend equal, fixed percentages of Pacific Rim and Europe for international investing? I got the impression from other posters here that you might have moved away from this approach after the introduction (or perhaps I should say improvement) of all-in-one international funds (such as VGTSX/VXUS). It's an academic question for me anyway because the only broad-based international index fund in my Fidelity 401(k) is FSIIX, but I'm interested in your thoughts.
by Raging Mage
Sun Jul 17, 2011 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Buy-and-Hold Isn't a Good Strategy
Replies: 50
Views: 8764

evancox10 wrote:
empb wrote:I prefer this: http://goo.gl/ZaiZI

:lol:
That's great, but try this one: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YGo1fHuc ... re=related

Holy cow, take a look at how gold blew right through that Fibonacci resistance point!!!!!

Are you sure you didn't mean to post this video Taylor? These guys really seem to be on to something! :wink:
Wow, and some people say Bogleheads members are into self-advertisement... :shock:

That video is a reminder to me of how thankful I should be for this community. Sometimes it's nice to see what one's investing philosophy is up against. Thanks for sharing.
by Raging Mage
Mon Jul 04, 2011 10:49 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: advertising by Rick Ferri
Replies: 91
Views: 11749

Actually, I am having trouble finding the rule against advertising. Policies and Etiquette says that you can't have a commercial message in an avatar, signature, or location, but I don't see that you can't put a commercial message into your post. This is the closest thing I can find in our forum policies (emphasis mine): No Solicitation or Link Farming Please do not solicit business or website traffic on this forum. A discreet link to your website in your profile is allowed. The moderators and administrators reserve the right to determine unilaterally what constitutes solicitation, to remove such material, and to ban a repeat offender if necessary. If you ask me, based on the above rules, we're looking at a non-issue in this thread. Maybe ...
by Raging Mage
Sun Jul 03, 2011 6:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: advertising by Rick Ferri
Replies: 91
Views: 11749

Re: advertising by Rick Ferri

Why does this discussion board allow advertising by Rick Ferri and a few other investment advisors ?? It seems there are selected advisors who are allowed to submit posts that are basically advertisement for their sevices without repercusions. I think advisors, which advertise theirselves, should be banded from the website. I do not appreciate Ferri writing about what a wonderful person he is. My position is the exact opposite of yours--I would hope Rick continues to be a regular contributor here. Possibly without realizing it, he provided me with significant help and guidance when I was getting started with my investment portfolio, and I never felt that I was being hit with "advertisements" at any point. On the contrary, I felt ...
by Raging Mage
Sun Jul 03, 2011 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation-based market timing with PE10 can improve returns?
Replies: 696
Views: 139836

I apologize if this (possibly newbie) question has been asked elsewhere in the thread, but assuming PE10 is linked to returns, isn't one already responding to PE10 fluctuations to some degree simply by rebalancing? Eventually I need to get around to writing an IPS (right now an Excel spreadsheet containing my AA is mostly serving this purpose), and once of those decisions will be whether it's worthwhile (or even necessary) to take PE10 into account at all.
by Raging Mage
Fri Jul 01, 2011 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So how come [people think market up is noise, down is doom]
Replies: 24
Views: 2453

Re: So how come...

"After all, for any dollar amount, an X% loss followed by an X% gain results in an overall decrease, and the same is still true if you reverse that order." But there is really no reason to have "X% loss" and "X% gain" in the same sentence. You could talk about "X% loss followed by an Y% gain", but what possible reason could there be for singling out the X=Y case? Maybe my point wasn't clear. It was merely an attempt to highlight another possible reason why, on a psychological level, losses tend to impact people more than gains: it might be partly because of the measuring stick (percentage-based gains/losses) they tend to use. Using equal percentage values in my first post merely offered a convenient ...
by Raging Mage
Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What percent in equities if you had $5 million TODAY?
Replies: 65
Views: 8966

Are you talking about $5M accumulated over a period of years/decades, or a sudden $5M windfall? Either way, I imagine such a tidy sum would eliminate most or all of one's need to take risk, but each of those two situations would call for a different response. If one has worked one's way up to $5M over time, one should have been considering a more conservative allocation for some time. On the other hand, if one receives such a large windfall (and the emotions that will inevitably go with it), one's best immediate response would be to set it aside for a few months and wait for the emotions to die down before making any moves.
by Raging Mage
Fri Jul 01, 2011 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So how come [people think market up is noise, down is doom]
Replies: 24
Views: 2453

Re: So how come...

Valuethinker wrote:Humans are risk averse in the domain of losses.

A short term loss produces about twice as much pain as a short term gain does pleasure. Tested in the lab.
Maybe mathematics has also helped to "wire" us in that manner. After all, for any dollar amount, an X% loss followed by an X% gain results in an overall decrease, and the same is still true if you reverse that order. Of course, it's a different ballgame if you look at absolute values instead of percentages, but judging from how frequently we tend to use the latter, it's that much easier to settle into the mindset that losses are "larger" than gains.
by Raging Mage
Thu Jun 30, 2011 9:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Video is Up!! - Active Managers Explain How It Works
Replies: 24
Views: 4174

Boglenaut wrote:Raging Mage,

I just noticed your avatar. Pretty funny!

"Be rational... get real"
8-)

I can't take credit for making it, but I figured (pun intended) that math humor needed a bit more love.

On a side note, I do wonder what would happen if those two "characters" ever started discussing investing. :twisted:
by Raging Mage
Tue Jun 28, 2011 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Money Managers Fail to Beat the Market"
Replies: 13
Views: 2642

EvelynTroy wrote:I didn't read the article - I saw what I needed to know about the site at the bottom of the article:

...

For me the credibility of this outfit is about zero.
Evelyn
This is actually one of the reasons the article caught my attention--it was a very Boglehead-like message on a site where I never expected to find such a thing.
by Raging Mage
Mon Jun 27, 2011 4:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Money Managers Fail to Beat the Market"
Replies: 13
Views: 2642

"Why Money Managers Fail to Beat the Market"

At risk of preaching to the choir, I thought this new article on ETF Daily News was a good read:

http://etfdailynews.com/2011/06/27/why- ... he-market/

I'm now strongly tempted to make its opening sentence my new forum signature (okay, forget "tempted"...I just did):
Here are three easy ways to beat the market: Deception, irrelevance and bad math.
by Raging Mage
Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:37 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 21 y/o new to investing
Replies: 27
Views: 1804

TwentyFour, welcome to the forum!

If you're new to investing, you should definitely start by reading a few books. Any of the "Start-up" selections listed on the Bogleheads Wiki would make for a fantastic start. Don't be in a hurry to get started--accumulating knowledge is most important for you at this point.
by Raging Mage
Sun Jun 26, 2011 7:07 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 21 year old, ready to pull the trigger with my AA?
Replies: 16
Views: 1890

I can't believe I'm the first one to say this, but congratulations on choosing a reasonable stock/bond split. Many of us 20-somethings are tempted to start out with 90% or even 100% in stocks, which isn't necessarily wrong, but is often decided upon without a full awareness of the risks and implications. You might eventually decide upon a different split once you know more about your risk tolerance and needs, but your plan is a great start. A couple thoughts: - Microcaps may or may not be a winner in the future. Frankly, nobody knows for sure. Some investors like overweighting this small portion of the market in an effort to achieve higher returns (albeit with higher risk), while others determine that a small value tilt is sufficient. Keep ...
by Raging Mage
Sun Jun 26, 2011 6:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why I would like to own a foreign bond fund
Replies: 43
Views: 4450

nisiprius wrote:why, exactly do you think you need currency diversification?
Great question, Nisiprius. This one weighed heavily on my mind when choosing how to balance U.S. and international stocks in my portfolio (I wound up going 70/30 instead of 50/50). I don't have a good answer for it, but I do have a related question of my own: Have investors historically been compensated for taking on currency risk?
by Raging Mage
Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VFSVX or VSS for International Small Cap?
Replies: 70
Views: 21126

I don't think the expense ratio data on TD Ameritrade's commission-free list has been updated in a long time. 0.33% is the correct ER for VSS.
by Raging Mage
Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:53 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Best way to get small value tilt?
Replies: 10
Views: 2568

There's not much point in holding all three Spartan funds at the same time. FUSEX and FSEMX are only needed if you don't have access to an equally inexpensive total stock market fund. Fees notwithstanding, you can safely trim that list down to just FSTMX and IJS, as Livesoft suggested.
by Raging Mage
Wed Jun 15, 2011 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller and stock valuations
Replies: 10
Views: 2117

While we're on the subject of stock valuations, I'd be interested to know whether companies' increasing preference for stock buybacks over dividend payouts will have any impact on the typical P/E going forward.
by Raging Mage
Mon Jun 13, 2011 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anxiety Now versus Anxiety 2008
Replies: 42
Views: 6251

I'm not anxious at all. Of course, it's easy for me to say that because I just started saving last year* and have a very small (not even 5 digits yet) portfolio. If anything, I'd be more excited to see a downward spike in stock prices this year so I can buy on the cheap. (Warren Buffett's "hamburger" quiz from one of his essays comes to mind here.)

*DISCLAIMER: I wasn't here in 2008. :twisted:
by Raging Mage
Sat Jun 11, 2011 2:21 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: A video introduction to Bogleheads Investment Philosophy
Replies: 27
Views: 4322

Rick, these videos are fantastic! Thanks for putting the work into crafting them. I'll definitely have to pass this wiki page along to my fellow 20-somethings. It captures much of the advice I picked up from reading books, but with minimal time investment. =) Retiredjg's suggestion to help viewers with "investing vocabulary" is very good. I'd also suggest giving viewers a quick look at ETFs, and the benefits (and dangers) of using them as investment vehicles. I say this because, as a young investor who was looking to get started with a small amount of investment money and avoid mutual fund initial purchase requirements, it's a subject I came face-to-face with as soon as I got started. Also, I have one quick suggestion for video #8...