Search found 5343 matches

by protagonist
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?
Replies: 32
Views: 2932

Re: So...what’s Plan B [for your retirement security]?

Not too concerned. I keep enough in CDs , I-bonds etc. that if the market drops by 99% and does not recover within my lifetime I should be able to maintain my current lifestyle via SS and CDs. Having much more money doesn't seem like it would make me much (if at all) happier anyway, so I don't inves...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 23, 2018 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018
Replies: 94
Views: 13964

Re: Six stocks make up 98% of S&P 500 gains in 2018

I'm very happy with that! My trend following strategy has had me primarily in large cap growth this year. My portfolio has returned 8.2% this year, compared to SPY's 2.5%. Isn’t it true that a handful of stocks have explained most of the growth in the market for most of history? Yes. Around 90% of ...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 36007

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

Reason 7, and IMHO the most important: If you pay it off, you may come out ahead financially or you may not. Only time (15 years? 30 years?) will tell. That's a crap shoot. But it feels so good to be debt-free. And no matter what, you have a roof over your head. Your home is really yours. Funny how ...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Six Pillars of Self-Esteem: Nathaniel Branden
Replies: 16
Views: 2388

Re: Six Pillars of Self-Esteem: Nathaniel Branden

My personal opinion (for what it is worth): If self-esteem is a concern, and you can afford it, you would do better to seek professional therapy than expect to get it from a self-help book. Self-esteem is such an important factor in carving out a happy life. And it is a complex issue for which I dou...
by protagonist
Mon Oct 22, 2018 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 476
Views: 70070

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

Your calculation is correct. Be sure you are using marginal tax rates, and not tax brackets. My federal tax bracket will be 12%, but my federal marginal tax rate will be 27%, due to marginal ordinary income pushing an equal amount of qualified dividends from 0% to 15% tax rate. There many other fac...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 18, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Good Modern Science Fiction
Replies: 321
Views: 45267

Re: Good Modern Science Fiction

I just finished Oryx and Crake by Margaret Atwood. Excellent book.
by protagonist
Mon Oct 15, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 80
Views: 16120

Re: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter

The new email group now has two Polls (at our Groups.io website), asking where members reside, and also preferred day of week to meet, in order to better plan centralized meetings (or rotate, if need be). We're aiming to schedule our next meeting in early/mid Nov. I'll be in St Pete in January with...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 12, 2018 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7444
Views: 1558011

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Roughly skimming the last few pages of the 146 pages of this thread leads me to the assumption that Bogleheads are strong believers in market timing. They also believe that past performance is a reliable predictor of future returns, both in the short term and in the long term. No judgment here....wh...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7444
Views: 1558011

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I looked at my portfolio...over the 2 days I lost a car, WTH!, sheesh! That’s all!!!.. I wanna lose a house :twisted: If I am not mistaken, the Dow first hit 25000 around the beginning of this year. So if you invested your money before 2018, you have not lost anything....you are still ahead. It's l...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Oatmeal suggestions
Replies: 167
Views: 25777

Re: Oatmeal suggestions

FWIW, Trader Joe's makes a rapid cooking steel cut oatmeal that can be prepared in a microwave in a short period of time (I forget how long but definitely less than 10 minutes of cooking....probably closer to five). I can't compare it to others because it is the only one I buy. They also have an "an...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019
Replies: 19
Views: 2431

Re: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019

That is true, and you are doing the right thing. But just because you are frugal and spending less does not mean that you are earning a real return. If I switch from steak to hamburger meat because both prices went up, I don't dodge inflation. I know what my spending history and for what purposes.....
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7444
Views: 1558011

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I looked at my portfolio...over the 2 days I lost a car, WTH!, sheesh! That’s all!!!.. I wanna lose a house :twisted: If I am not mistaken, the Dow first hit 25000 around the beginning of this year. So if you invested your money before 2018, you have not lost anything....you are still ahead. It's l...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 7444
Views: 1558011

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I looked at my portfolio...over the 2 days I lost a car, WTH!, sheesh! That’s all!!!.. I wanna lose a house :twisted: If I am not mistaken, the Dow first hit 25000 around the beginning of this year. So if you invested your money before 2018, you have not lost anything....you are still ahead. It's l...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 11:43 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019
Replies: 19
Views: 2431

Re: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019

Social security benefits are indexed to inflation. Thus I assume a 2.8% increase is actually a zero increase in "real terms". "Look forward to" is misleading, unless your expenses are inflating at below the index level. Many retiree's inflation is less than the CPI. Mine has been much less than the...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019
Replies: 19
Views: 2431

Re: Social Security benefits up 2.8% in 2019

Social security benefits are indexed to inflation.

Thus I assume a 2.8% increase is actually a zero increase in "real terms". "Look forward to" is misleading, unless your expenses are inflating at below the index level.
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A time to EVALUATE your jitters
Replies: 283
Views: 243756

Re: A time to EVALUATE your jitters

A Japanese investor with a reasonable allocation to global stocks would have ended up just fine. Japan is exhibit A on why international diversification is important for all investors. Yet in 2008, when Washington sneezed, the entire world caught a cold. My international investments underperformed ...
by protagonist
Thu Oct 11, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 80
Views: 16120

Re: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter

Suggestion (pretty obvious, so forgive me if you have already done so): List your group with meetup.com if you want to attract interested people. That goes for Tampa, SW FL and all others. Actually, I run a Meetup group for our local Audiophile club. However, Bogleheads are a niche group, and I thi...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter
Replies: 80
Views: 16120

Re: Tampa Bay Local Bogleheads Chapter

Suggestion (pretty obvious, so forgive me if you have already done so):

List your group with meetup.com if you want to attract interested people.

That goes for Tampa, SW FL and all others.
by protagonist
Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat
Replies: 77
Views: 7841

Re: Surprised by Jack's answer to Fidelity's 0 mgmt fund threat

Paying far too much attention to this passing nonsense when it would be far, far more valuable to read, study, and reflect on anything that helps you know yourself, your own situation, and your own microeconomics better. The financial industry includes everyone that has interests other than yours, ...
by protagonist
Tue Oct 09, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Six Pillars of Self-Esteem: Nathaniel Branden
Replies: 16
Views: 2388

Re: Six Pillars of Self-Esteem: Nathaniel Branden

From Wikipedia: "Critics such as sociologist Frank Furedi[13] and neuropsychologist Paul Pearsall[14] cited the book as an example of what they see as a cultural trend of over-emphasizing the significance of self-esteem. Psychology professor Robyn Dawes said that Branden propagated a false "belief t...
by protagonist
Fri Oct 05, 2018 7:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.
Replies: 369
Views: 49010

Re: MoviePass-Too good to be true, but it's legit.

I also canceled Moviepass. Re: Simemia: Movies around here cost about $10/ticket. If I maximized my Simemia use and saw 3 movies/month I would save $20/month, ASSUMING I would have seen 3 movies/month anyway. I didn't hit that average with Moviepass, though one a week was my goal. In the greater sch...
by protagonist
Sun Sep 30, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators
Replies: 34
Views: 2127

Re: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators

Life insurance is priced according to actuarial tables. Using the law of large numbers, life insurance companies can predict the lifespan of a population based on specific risk factors. They can't predict your specific lifespan, but they know how long someone of your age, health, and lifestyle will...
by protagonist
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators
Replies: 34
Views: 2127

Re: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators

Those inputs (expected returns, expected variance, and expected correlation) will determine the output. Unfortunately, it is up to the investor to use they judgement abut what those inputs should be. Correct. And when it comes to predicting what the world will look like in 20 or 30 or (gasp!) 50 or...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million
Replies: 46
Views: 9642

Re: Im going to die somewhere between Bankruptcy and $20 million

How much weight should I be giving to calculators like this? None. You are in your 30s so you likely have a 50 year plus investment future. Even if the calculators are based on 100 years of solid data (doubtful), predicting 50 years into the future based on 100 years of data and no valid underlying...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems reasonable and pretty straight forward.
Replies: 68
Views: 8537

Re: Why don't I read about this strategy more? It seems to beat everything else

... Why not simply buy an index (like S&P500) when the 12 month moving average is flat or going up, and sell when it is going down. I don't believe I can predict the future at all, but I know for sure I can tell which way a line is going on a graph over a period of time. The key distinction here is...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 20, 2018 12:09 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 2924
Views: 576965

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

I'm waffling on which card I should get next. Overall goal is to build up airline points for future travel. Future destinations include Asia and Europe; can't be more specific at this time. At present I have a Chase Southwest RR VISA acquired last year as part of their California resident Companion...
by protagonist
Fri Sep 14, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6753

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

Look at his predictions ten years ago and see how well they match reality for this decade. Ten years ago, after the crash depressed market valuations, the theory forecasted returns more likely to be above the historical average than below it. The theory was correct. Care to point out anyone who in ...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 13, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6753

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

Look at his predictions ten years ago and see how well they match reality for this decade. Ten years ago, after the crash depressed market valuations, the theory forecasted returns more likely to be above the historical average than below it. The theory was correct. "theory"? That's a 50-50 chance....
by protagonist
Thu Sep 13, 2018 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?
Replies: 81
Views: 6753

Re: Lower Return Decade Says Jack: Thoughts?

Look at his predictions ten years ago and see how well they match reality for this decade. My guess is that he probably did as well as anybody who enters the annual "Dow challenge" guessing game. If he nailed it, he was one really lucky guy. Who would have predicted a black president in 1998? Who wo...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 13, 2018 7:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Picking a Charity
Replies: 69
Views: 2900

Re: Picking a Charity

Consider something local that you believe in and know about. That is probably best. If you go for something national or global, carefully research online how much of your money is going to administration and how much is actually getting to the source. Also consider that if you give to a specific cau...
by protagonist
Thu Sep 06, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Bike Suggestion
Replies: 40
Views: 2999

Re: New Bike Suggestion

I ride 10-30 miles/day, usually about 20-22 miles, 4-5 days/week, average about 14 mph. I ride a hybrid (about $500). I've tried $2000-4000 carbon bikes. IMHO they are probably slightly faster and shift slightly smoother but not more comfortable. The light weight does not seem to offer much differen...
by protagonist
Wed Sep 05, 2018 6:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5705

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

[ This is a good point, and it really makes me wonder if the early retirement people are taking a much bigger risk than they believe. It's tough to plan for a 50-year (for example) retirement when the world can change so radically in just 20 years. What is often ignored here is that "risk" is a dou...
by protagonist
Tue Sep 04, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com
Replies: 69
Views: 5705

Re: Historical SWR vs. Monte Carlo on PortfolioVisualizer.com

A 4% withdrawal rate for 30 years only works about 82% of the time. I need to drop down to 3.4% withdrawal rate to get the success rate up to 95%. Does this sound right to people? This is 15% less money per year than the usual rule and I'm arguably using unrealistically high expected return numbers...
by protagonist
Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NASA FCU- 15 month CD 3.25%
Replies: 36
Views: 5307

NASA FCU- 15 month CD 3.25%

Certificates | NASA Federal Credit Union

[link formatted by admin LadyGeek]
by protagonist
Mon Sep 03, 2018 11:16 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gentlemen: underwear shopping question
Replies: 35
Views: 4026

Re: Gentlemen: underwear shopping question

I recently took a 3 1/2 week trip to France, packing only 2 pairs of Ex Officio travel underwear. Every evening I would spend a couple of minutes rinsing out the pair I wore in the sink and hanging it to dry on an elastic travel clothesline. The next day I would wear the other pair. The first pair w...
by protagonist
Mon Sep 03, 2018 10:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?
Replies: 110
Views: 5784

Re: Does it make sense to invest in individual stocks (like Kanye West) if you stick to what you know?

"Why is nobody talking about the big investing mistake Kanye West made by giving his wife Kim Kardashian shares of Amazon (AMZN - Get Report) , Netflix (NFLX - Get Report) , Apple (AAPL - Get Report) , Adidas (ADDYY) and Disney (DIS - Get Report) ? He didn't DIVERSIFY (shout out to TheStreet's Jim C...
by protagonist
Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:46 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Huntington 2.85% 19 Month CD
Replies: 4
Views: 660

Re: Huntington 2.85% 19Mon CD

whodidntante wrote:
Sat Sep 01, 2018 11:29 am
It's better than nothing but not too likely to beat inflation after taxes. Treading water, maybe losing a little.
Likely true. But what is the alternative?
by protagonist
Sat Sep 01, 2018 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 36007

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

On the other hand, being debt-free with a roof over your head is psychologically priceless, especially in 2008-like scenarios or worse. I couldn't agree with you more. In days when it is cold or rains heavily, my family and I can stay warm, have a roof of our own over our heads - the feeling is pri...
by protagonist
Thu Aug 30, 2018 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 36007

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

On the other hand, being debt-free with a roof over your head is psychologically priceless, especially in 2008-like scenarios or worse. I couldn't agree with you more. In days when it is cold or rains heavily, my family and I can stay warm, have a roof of our own over our heads - the feeling is pri...
by protagonist
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Car Depreciation Curve, Lifespan, Repairs, & Sweet Spot of Ownership
Replies: 35
Views: 3426

Re: Car Depreciation Curve, Lifespan, Repairs, & Sweet Spot of Ownership

Though I have tended to drive cars into the ground, the technology over the past 5 years or so is rapidly improving in ways that it had not in previous decades, in terms of convenience features, safety features and economy. Cars now almost drive themselves. So it's hard to guess the sweet spot.
by protagonist
Wed Aug 29, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Native German speakers: need help with translation.
Replies: 17
Views: 2011

Re: Native German speakers: need help with translation.

You got me thinking. Google translates "powder room" as "Damentoilette", which I guess means literally "women's toilet". I think a "powder room" in English is a polite and somewhat archaic euphemism for a woman's bathroom, but even that may be nuanced in ways I don't understand (as an American male)...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Free windows 10 Antivirus
Replies: 11
Views: 1284

Re: Free windows 10 Antivirus

Bitdefender or Avira (free). I like Avira but annoying side-effect is little popups.
by protagonist
Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?
Replies: 68
Views: 12346

Re: Real estate dropping like a rock in U.K. - can the U.S. be far behind?

Manhattan real estate sales in 2d quarter....17% less sales and prices down 7.5% cf. 2d quarter last year. Smallest volume since 2009. Resale apts. are spending longer on the market. New apt. sales down 37% from 2d quarter last year. In addition to properties becoming too expensive, there are the is...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33788

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

There are even folks out there who want to give up on bonds now that 2018 has proved disappointing for bonds. Consensus is there will be 2 more rate hikes this year and at least 2 more next year. If you thought bonds were a good idea in January, they should be a good idea now. I agree. And if you t...
by protagonist
Tue Aug 28, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"
Replies: 196
Views: 36007

Re: "6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage"

Bogleheads: Boglehead Jim Dahle has written a very helpful article for wealthy Bogleheads with extra cash who cannot decide whether to pay-off their mortgage or invest in stocks & bonds: 6 Reasons The Rich Should Pay-Off Their Mortgage Thank you, Jim Best wishes. Taylor " When you are very poor, a ...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.
Replies: 80
Views: 13732

Re: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.

The only goal is to beat inflation and preserve the purchasing power of the portfolio. If you were a US citizen living in the US, TIPS would do that for you--at least for 30 years (maximum maturity of TIPS). But since you don't know what currency you'll be spending in the future, you can't know wha...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:13 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth chasing down this $10 fee?
Replies: 38
Views: 3130

Re: Is it worth chasing down this $10 fee?

Earl Lemongrab wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:16 pm
protagonist wrote:
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:32 pm
Time is money. You have already easily spent $10 worth of your time posting this and reading the responses up until now.
Yeah, but a bunch of us have also read and posted, with no expectation of getting anything out of it at all.
Good point! (laughing...)
by protagonist
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth chasing down this $10 fee?
Replies: 38
Views: 3130

Re: Is it worth chasing down this $10 fee?

Time is money. You have already easily spent $10 worth of your time posting this and reading the responses up until now.
by protagonist
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring to USA from Australia
Replies: 22
Views: 1465

Re: Retiring to USA from Australia

Also consider what will happen to them if they require long-term nursing home care or the equivalent in the future. That can be extremely expensive in the US and can rapidly deplete one's nest egg. I don't know what their Australian insurance would provide. But it's worth examining whether the move ...
by protagonist
Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.
Replies: 80
Views: 13732

Re: Retiring. 28 y.o. $5M in cash. Asking for advice for portfolio.

Forget about AA percentages. If you plan to completely retire, project what you think you need to live on for the next 60 years given your annual expenses...today's dollars. Invest that very conservatively (CDs for example). That is a hard thing to do at age 28 since your future life is uncertain bu...