Search found 5722 matches

by protagonist
Thu Jun 20, 2019 10:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tempted to market time bond fund
Replies: 15
Views: 1217

Re: Tempted to market time bond fund

My muni bond fund (FMOTX)’s NAV seems expensive today at 11.44, primarily since it dropped into the 10’s just a few months ago. I am considering waiting until the price drops back near 11, and actually did decide to wait when it was at 11.35. I’ve been putting money into a dedicated savings account...
by protagonist
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommend toaster
Replies: 14
Views: 812

Re: Recommend toaster

I had a Breville. After a few years it started getting glitchy, and then one of the elements burned out. Plus the narrower version was too narrow for the artisan bread I buy, and the wider version did not get as good reviews. I replaced it with a wide slot 2 slot Cuisinart toaster. Wirecutter seems ...
by protagonist
Wed Jun 19, 2019 10:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 116
Views: 8809

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Well it's been an interesting week in the bond market. Tips yields have dropped, along with nominal treasuries. Currently yields: 5 year TIP: 0.33% 10 year TIP: 0.38% 30 year TIP: 0.73% S a) The 5 year BEI repesents near term inflation. i think the best guide here is what recent CPI reports have be...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 18, 2019 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: population growth and consumption
Replies: 15
Views: 1224

Re: population growth and consumption

I can't comment with certainty, but I would guess that predictions of population growth a century going forward have almost as little validity as predictions of economic growth a century going forward. Caveat. We know pretty much how many of people born this year will make it to 2089 (aged 70). The...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?
Replies: 116
Views: 8809

Re: are TIPS expensive? or are they cheap?

Well it's been an interesting week in the bond market. Tips yields have dropped, along with nominal treasuries. Currently yields: 5 year TIP: 0.33% 10 year TIP: 0.38% 30 year TIP: 0.73% S a) The 5 year BEI repesents near term inflation. i think the best guide here is what recent CPI reports have be...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: population growth and consumption
Replies: 15
Views: 1224

Re: population growth and consumption

I can't comment with certainty, but I would guess that predictions of population growth a century going forward have almost as little validity as predictions of economic growth a century going forward. To me, "stay the course" means don't panic and do something rash if, for example, there is a marke...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 14, 2019 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How have your homes as investments done?
Replies: 213
Views: 21096

Re: How have your homes as investments done?

Western MA: Bought home in 1983 for, I forgot, maybe $58000? ....sold in 1997 for about $160K I think. Bought home in 1997 for $200K, put $200K into it, sold in 2009 for about $790K. Bought home in 2009 for $392K...I think it is probably worth about $500-550K now but unsure. Florida: My mom bought h...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Credit Card - Binding arbitration opt-out?
Replies: 37
Views: 2935

Re: Chase Credit Card - Binding arbitration opt-out?

An article in The New York Times reports on the Chase arbitration notice. It also refers to a lawyer's opt-out letter template (one has to click on a Twitter link to see it). As for Chase closing an account if one opts out, wouldn't there be a provision in the email about that? I've always noticed ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Credit Card - Binding arbitration opt-out?
Replies: 37
Views: 2935

Re: Chase credit card arbitration agreement

We received it as well. We will never hire a lawyer to sue Chase. Letting it go is the right answer for us. Cheers OP here. This is also my feeling. I doubt that any class action suit re: my credit cards would pay me enough to compensate for the time and aggravation of opting out on each card separ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Credit Card - Binding arbitration opt-out?
Replies: 37
Views: 2935

Chase credit card arbitration agreement

[merged this post and replies into the existing thread - moderator prudent] I just received notice of an arbitration agreement regarding all of my Chase accounts- apparently it will soon become binding and if I want to opt out I have to go to the trouble of doing so in writing. On paper at least, i...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

How much did your mom pay for it? She bought it in 1980....paid about what it was worth in 2010, but in 1980 dollars. I forget exactly, but it was around $80K. "$80,000 in 1980 is equivalent in purchasing power to about $243,793.04 in 2018". So if she sold the property instead of me last year, she ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

Here is where we disagree. If I can model some worst case scenarios, and get through them, I can view my portfolio in that light without ever knowing the probability of that scenario happening. The worst case scenario needs no modeling. It is that you lose all your money- the value of your investme...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

If instead, she invested $80K in the S+P 500 in 1980 and reinvested dividends it would have been worth over $6,000,000 in 2018. I sure wish she rented. *laughing* No, there would not have been $6 million. I would presume that $80k was the purchase price, but that she didn't pay all cash, up front f...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

No, not ALL Monte Carlo simulations are based on a house of cards. It is a very useful tool with several valid applications, where there is enough prior data available and where there is enough theoretical basis to render future predictions meaningful. It is an invaluable tool when applied properly...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $10,000 for 3 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2224

Re: How to invest $10,000 for 3 years

I would never use anything but a money market fund or CD or maybe savings account for this amount and this time period. You don't get to both maintain principal and select your return, it doesn't work that way. If you are willing to risk principal, how much? Then select a stock/bonds/cash ratio tha...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

If you realize that the predictions are based on a house of cards, then I agree with you. Wait. Are you saying that if someone thinks that Monte Carlo simulations are inherently built on a house of cards that they don't understand statistics? If so, I agree with you. No, not ALL Monte Carlo simulat...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 9:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

If instead, she invested $80K in the S+P 500 in 1980 and reinvested dividends it would have been worth over $6,000,000 in 2018. I sure wish she rented. *laughing* No, there would not have been $6 million. I would presume that $80k was the purchase price, but that she didn't pay all cash, up front f...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

If you understand the assumptions of the model you are using, you can use it appropriately. I agree that most models should not be a one-stop solution --> they should be used along with other tools. I think the crux of the issue is that most people DON''T understand the assumptions....or rather the...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 13, 2019 8:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

I inherited a home from my mom in FL in 2005, at which time it was appraised at $260,000. That is, in 2005 dollars. By 2010 I would have been lucky to sell it for $80K. I finally sold it in 2018 for $168,000 before paying realtor fees. That was pretty much market value. I did have positive cash flo...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How to invest $10,000 for 3 years
Replies: 20
Views: 2224

Re: How to invest $10,000 for 3 years

I would never use anything but a money market fund or CD or maybe savings account for this amount and this time period. You don't get to both maintain principal and select your return, it doesn't work that way. If you are willing to risk principal, how much? Then select a stock/bonds/cash ratio tha...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Monte Carlo Simulation
Replies: 44
Views: 3507

Re: Monte Carlo Simulation

I recognize that a Monte Carlo simulation looks backward, and that can be no guarantee of future results. However, if I have entered in all the correct information regarding my assets and my intended withdrawals, is this a reasonably accurate tool to use for planning. Any other vehicles that people...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 11, 2019 10:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

I inherited a home from my mom in FL in 2005, at which time it was appraised at $260,000. That is, in 2005 dollars. By 2010 I would have been lucky to sell it for $80K. I finally sold it in 2018 for $168,000 before paying realtor fees. That was pretty much market value. I did have positive cash flo...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?
Replies: 302
Views: 18547

Re: Paying for rent is throwing away money...myth?

I inherited a home from my mom in FL in 2005, at which time it was appraised at $260,000. That is, in 2005 dollars. By 2010 I would have been lucky to sell it for $80K. I finally sold it in 2018 for $168,000 before paying realtor fees. That was pretty much market value. I did have positive cash flow...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 11, 2019 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?
Replies: 23
Views: 2066

Re: Should I buy a house in Nova/DC area?

Hi everyone. Long-time reader, first-time poster. I'm trying to decide if we should buy a house and could use some outside thinking/analysis. Background : I live in Northern Virginia (Fairfax) and work for the federal government. I'll be in this area for another three years and then will have the o...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Travel Advice driving through NYC to Long Island
Replies: 18
Views: 1232

Re: Travel Advice driving through NYC to Long Island

I'm planning on driving from Syracuse, NY to Hauppauge, NY. Would anyone have any route advice? Google Maps says the trip takes 5 hrs and 24 minutes but I'm wondering about reality. I'd be leaving around 6 am on a week day and returning on a Sunday. Is taking the George Washington Bridge and Throg'...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I’ve been teaching for 16 years and I would take the job. First of all, an 80% schedule at a new job can actually be a good thing. I remember how difficult my first few years were. I worked very long hours learning the curriculum and planning lessons. There was so much to learn and do and not nearl...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 10, 2019 4:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 252
Views: 21521

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

Here in NYC 2.3 million gets you a nice 2 br 2 ba in Manhattan so I don't think the number is automatically obscene. But if you are buying a giant home in the suburbs for that much, I might question the need for all that space. That depends on the neighborhood. My friend owns a 2 br 2 ba right on C...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 3:56 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

You are correct about the WEP. That's why I mentioned the pension. If Maine's pension is well-funded, and the politicians are living up their end of the contract and paying in to the system, then great. If they are abdicating their responsibility and the pension is in trouble, she could be in finan...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?
Replies: 252
Views: 21521

Re: Can I afford this 2.3 million dollar home?

Here in NYC 2.3 million gets you a nice 2 br 2 ba in Manhattan so I don't think the number is automatically obscene. But if you are buying a giant home in the suburbs for that much, I might question the need for all that space. That depends on the neighborhood. My friend owns a 2 br 2 ba right on C...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:54 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Working for the Airlines - Value of Free Travel
Replies: 62
Views: 4895

Re: Working for the Airlines - Value of Free Travel

Thanks for the replies everyone. I’d be working in the main hub, and there lots of flights to our main destination. We also just have one kiddo, and both DH and I travel solely with her from time to time. Like, the two of them will fly to main destination for the weekend, to visit his parents, at l...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I have been in high school education for more than twenty years. My suggestion would be for her to take this position, since it is one of the best ways to get hired full time and it's with her desired school. Two observations (based solely on my experience, in my district/state; YMMV): 1. New teach...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

You are correct about the WEP. That's why I mentioned the pension. If Maine's pension is well-funded, and the politicians are living up their end of the contract and paying in to the system, then great. If they are abdicating their responsibility and the pension is in trouble, she could be in finan...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 07, 2019 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

Yes, she can take the exam and get certified in Chemistry. She is considering doing so....she certainly would if they hired her full time contingent on her teaching chemistry. I agree with bayview, she makes herself more valuable by being able to teach different subjects. Do it now and the school w...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:52 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I am a teacher, I would take this 80% position, it probably isn't any more or less likely to become full time for year two than another first year position is to continue into year two. Unfortunately, needs change and it's pretty easy for a first year teacher to get laid off. Can she get certified ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I would always vote for a job one loves over money. However, I would nail down exactly what this means in terms of tenure and the windfall provision mentioned above, as well as other benefits like medical insurance, just so there are no surprises. What happens to the pension credit if she changes s...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I'm very similar in background...BS in Bio, Masters in Ed. Took part time (I think .6FTE) position immediately after Masters at a top public school. Now at year 24, in 3 different states. Still love my job, but get to teach what I want (AP Bio, Chem) and have a good department/school climate. Getti...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77654

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

But you can often use probability and expected returns to evaluate whether a particular strategy makes sense based on the associated risks. Can you? What is the probability of a major market crash (50% decline or more) within the next 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? What is the probability of it reco...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 8:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gillette Fusion razors
Replies: 57
Views: 4880

Re: Gillette Fusion razors

I do what The Wirecutter tells me to do. https://thewirecutter.com/reviews/best-manual-razor/ Thanks for the link. I always enjoy reading opinions and forums on shaving. BTW, I don’t particularly care for the Fusion....I think the Schick Hydro5 is better. The Mach 3 is OK, but just OK. I also like ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 482
Views: 51762

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Military officer for 9 years. Now IT Management at a megacorp. Still part time military officer (National Guard). And my favorite job, husband and father of 3. I haven't planned much of where I've ended up, but it has all been good. I recommend the military, either active or reserve, officer or enl...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:53 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

dm200 wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:28 pm
Goal33 wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:24 pm
I think she should go for it but just an FYI in case it's not obvious. She might be an 80% teacher but you can count on her working more than 80% of a regular staff member.
Yes - I suspect that is probably true.
Me too.
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

It's an excellent school district...rated top three in the state....student reviews are excellent....and for many reasons she wants to live and teach there. One thing to look at though is that since she is not working full time she can likely find some side job that she may also be able to work at ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I teach and we have some 80% positions in our corporation. They don't become 100% positions because in our small school the need is not there. I have no idea what it is like where your daughter would teach, but I'd say give it a shot if that's the school she wants to be in. With her degree she shou...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

ohai wrote:
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:31 am
What other job offers is she considering?
She has 4 other offers that are all full-time, but the one she wants most is the school that is only offering 80%.
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

I teach and we have some 80% positions in our corporation. They don't become 100% positions because in our small school the need is not there. I have no idea what it is like where your daughter would teach, but I'd say give it a shot if that's the school she wants to be in. With her degree she shou...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77654

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

I'm not searching through 15-pages of responses for me to find it. I, too, won't search through 15 pages of responses. *smile* Just a side note that may come in handy for other threads ... if you click the little bitty arrow next to the "username wrote" at the top of any quoted posted, that will ta...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Re: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

Thanks for the input....you are all telling me effectively what she is also saying. It's nice hearing it from others with experience.
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: That's enough for me in 2019
Replies: 785
Views: 77654

Re: That's enough for me in 2019

But you can often use probability and expected returns to evaluate whether a particular strategy makes sense based on the associated risks. Can you? What is the probability of a major market crash (50% decline or more) within the next 10 years? 20 years? 50 years? What is the probability of it reco...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:21 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?
Replies: 64
Views: 4971

Attn: teachers....Daughter considering 80% teaching position. Good idea?

My daughter just got an M. Ed. in Biology and has had numerous desirable job offers. The job she is most interested in is only offering her an 80% teaching (and salary) position for the first year (teaching HS biology). Starting salaries at the other schools are about $50K. She would make $40K year ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 06, 2019 10:04 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?
Replies: 482
Views: 51762

Re: What is/ was your career and would you recommend it now?

Military officer for 9 years. Now IT Management at a megacorp. Still part time military officer (National Guard). And my favorite job, husband and father of 3. I haven't planned much of where I've ended up, but it has all been good. I recommend the military, either active or reserve, officer or enl...