Search found 6387 matches

by protagonist
Wed Jul 01, 2020 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 84
Views: 7534

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

... So my impressions of the research_ both my intuition (System 1) and my fact-checking (System 2) is that it is very sloppy (and, as a scientist, this is disturbing), and Kahneman's tendency to jump to such definitive statements about how it proves his thesis is especially disturbing (particularl...
by protagonist
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 84
Views: 7534

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

Yes, the most interesting quote in Larry's column is the one about doctors. 40% when completely certain? I'm a little skeptical, but that's a really concerning number if it is true. Don't get me wrong, I'm uncertain about diagnosis A LOT (probably most of the time). But when I'm completely certain,...
by protagonist
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thinking Fast and Slow
Replies: 84
Views: 7534

Re: Thinking Fast and Slow

:P I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only about 10% in, and I find some of his claims a bit difficult to accept without fact-checking....like if I see pictures of money I will be less likely to help a stranger. O...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4441
Views: 1257014

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

:P I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only about 10% in, and I find some of his claims a bit difficult to accept without fact-checking....like if I see pictures of money I will be less likely to help a stranger. O...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 30, 2020 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 worst 20 years
Replies: 14
Views: 1905

Re: S&P 500 worst 20 years

Quick glance

Average S+P closing price:
1929 26.19
1949 15.24

https://www.macrotrends.net/2526/sp-500 ... al-returns
by protagonist
Tue Jun 30, 2020 5:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4441
Views: 1257014

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

:P After hearing so many people rave about it on this site, I finally started Kahnemann's Thinking Fast and Slow. I'm not far enough into it yet to say what I think of it. I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only a...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 30, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4441
Views: 1257014

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After hearing so many people rave about it on this site, I finally started Kahnemann's Thinking Fast and Slow. I'm not far enough into it yet to say what I think of it. I started reading Thinking Fast and Slow several years ago. I did not finish the book. It is a bit of a commitment. I am only abou...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What is the best financial decision you ever made?
Replies: 180
Views: 11357

Re: What is the best financial decision you ever made?

Second worst short term financial decision- getting divorced 12 years ago, right before the crash.
Best long term financial decision - getting divorced 12 years ago.
Second best- staying out of debt.
by protagonist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4441
Views: 1257014

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

After hearing so many people rave about it on this site, I finally started Kahnemann's Thinking Fast and Slow.
I'm not far enough into it yet to say what I think of it.
by protagonist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 3:55 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.
Replies: 24
Views: 1414

Re: Determining my AA: wisdom vs guts feelings.

I am about to retire (or at least take a long sabbatical) and my typical yearly expenses are between 1% and 2% of my accumulated assets (this might sound quite impressive but it's also because I don't really need to spend that much :wink: ) Quite a lot of my assets are in rental properties, but I a...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

1209?! Sounds like cherry picking...why not start in 1208 or 1210? :wink: It's when the available data starts. I still think it is important to look at arbitrarily defined periods...eg centuries....to avoid cherry picking....if one does that one recognizes how unusual and remarkable the past centur...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 29, 2020 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

Europe reached its peak wealth per capita around 200-something AD (reign of Marcus Aurelius?) and that was not reached again until well into the Renaissance if not the 1700s I would have guessed not until at least the mid-19th century , but then again, when speaking of nearly two millenia, what is ...
by protagonist
Sun Jun 28, 2020 8:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: June vacation
Replies: 29
Views: 3875

Re: June vacation

I think the reality is that, for OP and many other Americans contemplating international travel, the decision will be made for you by travel restrictions imposed by the authorities in your destination. As the U.S. has a significantly higher rate of infections and fatalities than most other develope...
by protagonist
Sun Jun 28, 2020 12:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

Europe reached its peak wealth per capita around 200-something AD (reign of Marcus Aurelius?) and that was not reached again until well into the Renaissance if not the 1700s I would have guessed not until at least the mid-19th century , but then again, when speaking of nearly two millenia, what is ...
by protagonist
Sun Jun 28, 2020 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

Some interesting data from the calculator: 1209-1617 --- 0.2% 1618-1648 --- 1.3% (30 Year's War) 1649-1913 --- 0.2% 1914-1918 --- 19.4% (WW1) 1919-1939 --- 0.0% 1940-1941 --- 10.2% (Battle of Brittain WW2) 1942-1969 --- 3.5% 1970-1981 --- 13.5% (oil shock) 1982-2019 --- 3.8% The 30 Year's War on th...
by protagonist
Sat Jun 27, 2020 12:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Going Thru Divorce
Replies: 41
Views: 6554

Re: Going Thru Divorce

4. Pay off all of your debt and live your life debt free. The rewards here cannot be overstated. 5. Find someone that aligns with your own financial goals. Best of luck. +1. Went through the exact same thing and when I decided to start dating again, these were topics discussed on first dates. Proba...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 26, 2020 6:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warm slippers/ socks?
Replies: 21
Views: 1172

Re: Warm slippers/ socks?

I usually trust Wirecutter, but I got burned on slippers. Paid nearly $100 for the pair of moccasins they recommended from LL Bean. After 1 1/2 seasons they were stretched out to the point that they no longer felt warm, my feet were swimming in them (they initially fit snugly), and the lining was s...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 26, 2020 10:16 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a new microwave
Replies: 38
Views: 3229

Re: Need a new microwave

For now, I'm waiting for a sale and might pick up a replacement or two. We'll see if anything shows up before Black Friday. Worse case, I figure I'll just drive to Costco and pickup one they have or order one on Amazon and it probably arrives in a day or two. On one hand, I loathe the contribution ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Warm slippers/ socks?
Replies: 21
Views: 1172

Re: Warm slippers/ socks?

I usually trust Wirecutter, but I got burned on slippers. Paid nearly $100 for the pair of moccasins they recommended from LL Bean. After 1 1/2 seasons they were stretched out to the point that they no longer felt warm, my feet were swimming in them (they initially fit snugly), and the lining was so...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

I wonder what your investment would be worth if you went 100% in the All-Empire Index Fund at the peak of the Roman empire, during the reign of Marcus Aurelius in the latter part of the second century. My guess is that it would have probably taken you 1600 years or more to break even. We are still ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1728

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

I think human nature seeks a degree of certainty that is not possible. We tend to linearly project our own experience out into the future. But there are these huge disruptions out there waiting for us - wars, political crises, natural disasters etc. Surely 2020 and the Covid-19 pandemic has taught ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation since 1209
Replies: 31
Views: 2681

Re: Inflation since 1209

I wonder what your investment would be worth if you went 100% in the All-Empire Index Fund at the peak of the Roman empire, during the reign of Marcus Aurelius in the latter part of the second century. My guess is that it would have probably taken you 1600 years or more to break even. We are still r...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?
Replies: 30
Views: 1728

Re: Can foreign stock markets tell us anything about how the S&P might act in the future?

Nisiprius's post was illuminating. Two stock markets went to zero?!! That's certainly a difficult down market to have to withstand! There is a simple way to avoid this. Don't invest in single market. During the 20th century the economy was not nearly as global and interconnected (and yet, look what...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: College Student Beginner Portfolio Advice
Replies: 34
Views: 1144

Re: College Student Beginner Portfolio Advice

68 y o retired physician here. Honestly, you seem to have a good financial head on your shoulders based on your thought process. My advice to you at age 20, as a student, is enjoy life. Whatever meager amount you save will not amount to a hill of beans in another ten years. Study hard so you get a g...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 3:29 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Chase Freedom Unlimited card offer
Replies: 21
Views: 1910

Re: Chase Freedom Unlimited card offer

I have a Chase Freedom card, yet I received an offer today to apply for a Chase Freedom Unlimited card. Apparently I can receive a cash bonus after spending $500 in the first three months and there is no annual fee. It seems like the key difference is that while the Freedom card has quarterly rotat...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a new microwave
Replies: 38
Views: 3229

Re: Need a new microwave

I just bought an inexpensive GE microwave from Lowes. Disappointing. I can see the door latch is already going to be a problem. My two previous GE microwaves each lasted 8-10 years but I wonder if this one will last a year. I see in a previous post they are now made by Haier. This post is probably ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 25, 2020 11:49 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Need a new microwave
Replies: 38
Views: 3229

Re: Need a new microwave

deleted
by protagonist
Tue Jun 23, 2020 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 60
Views: 8920

Re: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

"When my FL home lost about 60-70% of its value following the 2008 crash I was really happy I was not in REITs ." I do not know why your Florida home would drop much more than the average but the good news is that it has risen substantially since 2008. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI It'...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:48 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How much home can/should one buy?
Replies: 173
Views: 21512

Re: How much home can/should one buy?

5) As per my rule, do not buy 1 million dollar house unless you have 2 million worth of investment elsewhere. KlangFool Though I cannot come up with an exact number in my head, and something tells me we are in the minority here, I completely agree with KlangFool. The basic principle....don't buy so...
by protagonist
Tue Jun 23, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"
Replies: 60
Views: 8920

Re: 2007 to 2020: The changing advice of "A Random Walk Down Wall Street"

"When my FL home lost about 60-70% of its value following the 2008 crash I was really happy I was not in REITs ." I do not know why your Florida home would drop much more than the average but the good news is that it has risen substantially since 2008. https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FLSTHPI It'...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 22, 2020 11:45 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 4441
Views: 1257014

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Matt Taibbi's "Hate, Inc."- a non-partisan skewering of the media (right and left) for inciting divisiveness rather than presenting real news. I would give the book 3 stars....a very cogent and credible main point. I would delve further into what I see as its problems (why only 3 stars), but I can't...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 18, 2020 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Is this time different?"
Replies: 77
Views: 5591

Re: "Is this time different?"

In any complex nonlinear system, like the stock market or the economy, every time is different. The more "different" a particular event is, the less likely it is to happen. So small rises and falls in the market are common. Bear markets are less common. Crashes that rapidly recover are even less co...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 18, 2020 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Is this time different?"
Replies: 77
Views: 5591

Re: "Is this time different?"

In any complex nonlinear system, like the stock market or the economy, every time is different. The more "different" a particular event is, the less likely it is to happen. So small rises and falls in the market are common. Bear markets are less common. Crashes that rapidly recover are even less com...
by protagonist
Wed Jun 17, 2020 12:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive
Replies: 464
Views: 41135

Re: JPM Chase Reserve Card gets more expensive

Da5id wrote:
Wed Jun 17, 2020 11:35 am
Wonder if there will be a new bonus category after June ends for CSR? Guess it depends on whether their retention numbers for existing cardholders are acceptable to them or not?
It's the same as the Freedom 5% category I believe....so if you have the Freedom card it's no advantage.
by protagonist
Mon Jun 15, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Retiring Abroad
Replies: 109
Views: 10594

Re: Retiring Abroad

When it comes to foreign exchange, “never assume the permanence of the present arrangement.” I would go further and eliminate the first phrase. Never assume the permanence of the present arrangement, period. First hand experience....when I bought my condo on a beautiful island and windsurfing parad...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 12, 2020 3:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Best CD rates thread
Replies: 697
Views: 92408

Re: Best CD rates thread

I would go short term, or keep money in a high-yield bank account (I am in SFGI Direct- current yield 1.36% APY). Inflation for the year ending April was 0.3%, so for now that is still about !% real, and I expect inflation numbers will drop or go negative, so the low yields for now are still beating...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market makes no sense
Replies: 116
Views: 7880

Re: Market makes no sense

I agree that the market makes no sense. It never does. If it did, we would all figure it out and make money hand over fist. That said, what makes sense to me ("Tell me, great hero, but please make it brief.." -Bob Dylan).....is that it is artificially inflated because there are no good alternatives ...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16116

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

fingoals wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:54 pm
protagonist wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:18 pm
fingoals wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:05 pm


What do you think will happen tomorrow and at the end of the week? Is the futures today's trend a decent indication of the next day's dynamics?
Take anybody's opinions about this with a grain of salt.
Sure. Thank you. :-)
yes, including mine. *laughing*
by protagonist
Fri Jun 12, 2020 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?
Replies: 159
Views: 9213

Re: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?

Also consider this....restaurants are relatively very cheap in the US compared with other wealthy nations. They should be, since owners don't have to pay their waitstaff a living wage. Keep in mind that in most US restaurants you are really underpaying for your food, and if you can afford it, it wou...
by protagonist
Fri Jun 12, 2020 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?
Replies: 231
Views: 28772

Re: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?

1. Considering Berstein's 2002 recommendation for a 60/40 allocation and also, R. Ferri's suggestion of a 30/70 allocation as the better "center of gravity" for retirees, what do you feel is the best allocation for a retiree? Why 2. If you are not yet a retiree, which allocation would you consider ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Girlfriend paying rent
Replies: 107
Views: 10545

Re: Girlfriend paying rent

"tell me, great hero, but please make it brief.."- Bob Dylan. OK...here's my take....for what it is worth.... It doesn't matter if it is objectively "fair" or not. What matters is your relationship, and what you are willing to live with. It's your house. My understanding from your post is that you t...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on today's sell-off?
Replies: 194
Views: 16116

Re: Thoughts on today's sell-off?

fingoals wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:05 pm


What do you think will happen tomorrow and at the end of the week? Is the futures today's trend a decent indication of the next day's dynamics?
Take anybody's opinions about this with a grain of salt.
by protagonist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?
Replies: 231
Views: 28772

Re: Updates: 60/40 VS 30/70 Allocation for Retirees: Bernstein VS Ferri ? What Did You Do Post Pandemic RBD 3/2020?

1. Considering Berstein's 2002 recommendation for a 60/40 allocation and also, R. Ferri's suggestion of a 30/70 allocation as the better "center of gravity" for retirees, what do you feel is the best allocation for a retiree? Why 2. If you are not yet a retiree, which allocation would you consider ...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:36 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?
Replies: 159
Views: 9213

Re: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?

Horrible and illogical system, but the fact is that in the USA, the waitstaff depend on tips, rather than a decent hourly wage, to survive. WA state has the highest minimum wage ($13.50) of any state in the country, and there is no reduction here for tipped waitstaff. In the city of Seattle, the mi...
by protagonist
Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity "premium" money market no longer "premium".
Replies: 6
Views: 1011

Re: Fidelity "premium" money market no longer "premium".

Only issue is if you have need of "dry powder" for a really bad day. Sometimes transfer from HYSA can take a couple of days including having funds ready to deploy. Of course, that implies market timing, but there are people on here (including venerable livesoft) who wouldn't consider deploying on a...
by protagonist
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity "premium" money market no longer "premium".
Replies: 6
Views: 1011

Fidelity "premium" money market no longer "premium".

I checked the 7-day yield today on FZDXX. 0.13%. The core Fidelity Treasury Money Market Fund (FZFXX) yield is 0.01%. In other words, for every $10,000 cash you have in FZDXX, you earn a whopping $12 more per year over FZFXX. Why am I posting this? 1. For those using Fidelity as a one-stop bank/inve...
by protagonist
Wed Jun 10, 2020 5:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?
Replies: 159
Views: 9213

Re: Tipping why % of bill and not flat amount?

Horrible and illogical system, but the fact is that in the USA, the waitstaff depend on tips, rather than a decent hourly wage, to survive.

I think it is important to keep that in mind, and tip accordingly.
by protagonist
Tue Jun 09, 2020 4:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Paying off mortgage or investing in stocks/bonds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1242

Re: Paying off mortgage or investing in stocks/bonds?

Part of the choice depends on your temperament. Will you be happier to know that you own your home and you are debt free, regardless of what happens in your life (lose job, etc)? How much is that worth to you? Also how much is the simplicity of a life free of having to make monthly payments, deal wi...
by protagonist
Mon Jun 08, 2020 6:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS (or SS or Medicare or ???) leaving me dazed and confused
Replies: 20
Views: 2278

Re: IRS (or SS or Medicare or ???) leaving me dazed and confused

Yesterday I received a check for $134 from the US Treasury (stamped "soc sec for ins"????), with NO explanation. I have no idea what this check is for. That is close to what my Medicare Part B payments are for 2020, but... $134 was the monthly Medicare Part B payment in 2017 and 2018 (for those not...
by protagonist
Sun Jun 07, 2020 6:57 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: IRS (or SS or Medicare or ???) leaving me dazed and confused
Replies: 20
Views: 2278

Re: IRS leaving me dazed and confused

Is protagonist over FRA and still working? His earnings increased his Primary Insurance Amount and hence his benefit. His new benefit with the January benefit and now he is getting that increase retroactively and " "soc sec for ins” is used for these checks. Yes? Good question, but no, I am not wor...