Search found 1859 matches

by Angst
Sun Dec 09, 2018 10:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 47
Views: 2708

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

The bond market is sending some interesting signals Right now: Nominal treasuries; 5 yr: 2.75 10 yr: 2.88 30 year: 3.14 Tips 5 yr: 1.04 10 yr: 0.96 30 yr: 1.15 Breakeven inflation 5 year: 1.71 10 yr: 1.92 30 yr: 1.99 5x5: 2.13 20x10: 2.025 I think long run fair value breakeven inflation would be ab...
by Angst
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia
Replies: 47
Views: 2708

Re: Tips breakevens and illiquidity premia

If you look back over the past 100 years or so there were actually 3 periods when there were bad bouts of high inflation. The late 1910s. The 1940s. And the 70s. I think the common linkage is that these were all periods of wartime deficit spending. In the Volker period the Fed changed their objecti...
by Angst
Thu Dec 06, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?
Replies: 14
Views: 1362

Re: All Weather Portfolio - Ray Dalio during slow growth/ downturn? How to balance bonds in low yield w/ rising rates?

[Snip...] Supposedly Dalio says for 'falling' markets you should have Treasury Bonds and TIPS, but I don't have much in them. I also read that longer-term bonds like the ones in Vanguards BND will go down because of the 'inverse yield curve' and short-term bond rates going up while long-term bonds ...
by Angst
Tue Dec 04, 2018 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TIPS Mutual Funds for emergency funds
Replies: 8
Views: 862

Re: TIPS Mutual Funds for emergency funds

What's missing from all discussions I've seen is any real-world data on the size and kinds of emergencies. The canonical emergency is job loss, but it's a special case because (depending on your job, your employer and the state you live in) unemployment benefits serve as a small "emergency fund." I...
by Angst
Tue Dec 04, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yield Curve = Inverted
Replies: 58
Views: 5941

Re: Yield Curve = Inverted

Can anyone explain why people would be buying long bonds right now? Economy is fine, Fed is raising rates, inflation ticking up, and you get essentially zero premium for locking in a historically low interest rate for 10 years. What am I missing? Inflation breakevens have been collapsing, economy s...
by Angst
Sun Dec 02, 2018 5:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for Retirement when one has a Pension
Replies: 60
Views: 5736

Re: Saving for Retirement when one has a Pension

Thanks for the insights all! I am receiving a pension through a state teacher's retirement system. I will obviously also receive SS but will wait till 65-67 to receive it and retire between 55-60, again with: [Snip...] The fact that you state " obviously " above gives me a bit of pause. When it com...
by Angst
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k has terrible fees; options?
Replies: 22
Views: 1001

Re: New 401k has terrible fees; options?

And if she's still working there when she turns 59½ (and if the plan permits it) she can begin in-service withdrawals/transfers to a personal IRA.
by Angst
Sat Dec 01, 2018 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New 401k has terrible fees; options?
Replies: 22
Views: 1001

Re: New 401k has terrible fees; options?

In addition to all the possible workarounds and short-term solutions considered, your wife needs to play the long game - campaign for a better 401k . With everything you say about her affinity for the company and her co-workers, this ought to be her primary objective. The Wiki has quite a lot of inf...
by Angst
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:53 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Service Roth 401(k) Rollovers
Replies: 12
Views: 1007

Re: In-Service Roth 401(k) Rollovers

veggivet wrote:
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:39 am
Thanks, Angst. I was asking specifically about rollovers between Roth 401k accounts and Roth IRAs, but thanks for your input.
Doh!
:oops:
by Angst
Fri Nov 30, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: In-Service Roth 401(k) Rollovers
Replies: 12
Views: 1007

Re: In-Service Roth 401(k) Rollovers

Yes, I've done this for several years now out of my traditional 401(k) into my personal Roth IRA while continuing to work. I haven't rolled a lot of money yet d/t wanting to avoid bumping my tax bracket. I will be cutting way back on work hours in a few years though and will be able to increase roll...
by Angst
Thu Nov 29, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds - what's the consensus for this cycle?
Replies: 11
Views: 2721

Re: I-Bonds - what's the consensus for this cycle?

+1
I agree, 0.5% isn't bad. And anyone who already owns 0% or 0.2% I Bonds should probably at least be swapping them out for the 0.5%, if they're not accumulating additional I Bonds.
by Angst
Wed Nov 28, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2797

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

The math simply does not add up for investors who are already in with the sinking performance so far. QSPIX is down -10.68% YTD, it will take an average of 10% returns annualized for next 9 years for it to make up 6% annualized returns for a full 10 year period starting 2018. QSPIX is up 3.5% appro...
by Angst
Mon Nov 26, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance
Replies: 60
Views: 2797

Re: AQR/Liquid Alt Performance

I believe the expectation for QSPIX and QRPRX is to be uncorrelated with the equity market. Dave I would hope the expectations would be more ambitious than that. Cash is uncorrelated to the equity market, and i don't need to pay very high expense ratio to get it. A better risk-adjusted return seems...
by Angst
Mon Nov 26, 2018 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio (IP) or Three-fund in Retirement?
Replies: 10
Views: 1110

Re: Schwab Intelligent Portfolio (IP) or Three-fund in Retirement?

Currently with Schwab where I have two IPs (one income, one growth) which have been in place for two years. Both are well diversified (I would say almost too diversified) and overall performance is down a 2% - 5% throughout the year (i.e., not one single month in the green). I’m aware of the cash d...
by Angst
Thu Nov 22, 2018 11:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe $18.00 - Black Friday sale
Replies: 257
Views: 18264

Re: H&R Block 2018 Tax Software Deluxe Federal + State $29.95

Walmart has 2018 deluxe+state for $18 https://www.walmart.com/ip/H-R-Block-Tax-Software-2018-Deluxe-State-Win-Email-Delivery/810000421 Walmart's price went down again - I just bought it for $18.17. Thank you! I was annoyed I'd missed it earlier. Just glad I snapped out of my turkey snooze soon enou...
by Angst
Fri Nov 09, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Still An Emerging Market?
Replies: 24
Views: 2058

Re: China Still An Emerging Market?

Excellent document! Thank you lack_ey, this pdf provides a nice graphical perspective for understanding what's going on in categorizing markets. China remains a long way off from becoming a "Developed Market". (I found zooming in 200% was best way to view it.) Some of the MSCI docs were posted above...
by Angst
Mon Nov 05, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs
Replies: 16
Views: 1281

Re: Duration matching with TIPS funds instead of buying individual TIPs

My objective is to use TIPS in order to provide a given dollar amount in real (inflation adjusted) dollars in 10 years. I could simply purchase a TIP in that amount maturing in 10 years but the problem with that is that the return from TIP assumes that the interest thrown off is re-invested in the ...
by Angst
Thu Oct 25, 2018 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is VTIAX/FTIPX now catching a falling knife?
Replies: 14
Views: 1654

Re: Is VTIAX/FTIPX now catching a falling knife?

And how do the smug "I max 401k by April, because I just can't wait another 8 months to dca" types feel, now that Total US stock is flat for 2018, and Total Intl stock (VTIAX/FTIPX) has lost over 3% ytd 2018? (And one would be better off dca-ing over 2018). I see it as a chance to keep slipping $1k...
by Angst
Fri Oct 19, 2018 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Indeed! According to yesterday's auction results PDF file , buyers paid $94.24 to have 100 of today's (actually 10/31/2018) dollars at maturity in 29+1/3 years. If the TIPS had a 0% coupon instead of 1%, at the same 1.235% yield to maturity, the price would have been only $69.76 (100 / 1.01235 ^ 29...
by Angst
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Auction yield was 1.235% which I think is about 2.5 bps higher than where the secondary was trading just before auction. I.e. the auction”tailed” massively I.e. the market hates long term tips right now. I deployed all the spare cash I could. Wish I had bought more. grok, always interested to read ...
by Angst
Wed Oct 17, 2018 7:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

It's looking like you might get you wish grok. The Treasury yield curve for today ended up at 1.21%
I'm pleased. :happy
by Angst
Wed Oct 17, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10052

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I don't get this criticism. Those of us raised in a religious environment are pretty familiar with the Bible and there are many common expressions in our language that come from the Bible, particularly the King James Version. The Bible gets quoted or at least alluded to quite often in spoken or wri...
by Angst
Tue Oct 16, 2018 6:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 8-week t-bill debuts tomorrow 10/16
Replies: 6
Views: 1693

Re: 8-week t-bill debuts tomorrow 10/16

Well, what do you know. I just noticed this while looking at today's yield curve. It shouldn't affect me, but for anyone who's taken up rolling their own personal Treasury MM Fund I suppose things just got a bit easier.
by Angst
Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

I’m being tempted by the 5 year at 1%. Inflation protection for the final years of self-funding all living expenses. Buy @ 62, 63 and 64 for spending at ages 67, 68 and 69. Makes sense to me. :) I'm also thinking that the fixed rate on I Bonds will likely move up in November from the 0.3% it's at p...
by Angst
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee
Replies: 344
Views: 50663

Re: New HSA provider Lively offers investments for $30/yr fee

Here is a good site to compare HSA's: https://thehsareportcard.com . I'll be rolling over my wife and my HSA's to Avidia Bank. They waive the $2.50/Mo investment fee if the avg monthly balance is greater than $3,000, so I should have no fees at all. A bit weak on investment options, but having VFIA...
by Angst
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:19 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cancun?
Replies: 1
Views: 301

Re: Cancun?

Are you aware of this currently active thread?

viewtopic.php?f=11&t=261313

If not, you might want to post there. Buenas suerte, I know nothing about Cancun!
by Angst
Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

I find it amusing and somewhat alarming that people think that interest rates in the U.S. are destined to rise back up to some certain rate. I'm sure that many Japanese investors felt the same way 20 years ago. Agree. I think it’s a well documented behavioral bias known as anchoring. To be fair, it...
by Angst
Sun Oct 14, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 4013

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Hi grok, I'm in too, as usual. Just filling out this year's rung on the ladder, building my little LMP. It's been entertaining to follow rates over the last few weeks; especially the slope. And that little equity burp last week wasn't too much of a surprise in that context, seems to me. I suppose ra...
by Angst
Sat Oct 13, 2018 6:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age
Replies: 162
Views: 14712

Re: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age

I'd guess that roughly 1/3 of the ever-changing population of orthopedic surgery patients that I interact with have had fractures related to falls. Common denominators include the following: (Note that although the following items might seem just for people who are beyond "staying active", I assure...
by Angst
Fri Oct 12, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6179

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

I wasn't talking in terms of performance. I fully expect the two to be nearly indistinguishable. By the "clear choice" I meant from the perspective of a non-boglehead/a young person opening an IRA for the first time. The zero minimum is huge. More impactful than the zero ER to me. I will continue t...
by Angst
Fri Oct 12, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard
Replies: 61
Views: 6179

Re: Does Fidelity offer the best index products for a passive investor compared to Vanguard

I've been an immense fan of Vanguard not only because of low ERs, but because of their lack of LTCG distributions. However, if I was a millennial with zero saved towards my retirement and now I have the ability to get in on the ground floor with zero minimum balance and zero fees, I think Fidelity ...
by Angst
Fri Oct 12, 2018 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age
Replies: 162
Views: 14712

Re: Tips for staying active / injury-free into older age

I'd guess that roughly 1/3 of the ever-changing population of orthopedic surgery patients that I interact with have had fractures related to falls. Common denominators include the following: (Note that although the following items might seem just for people who are beyond "staying active", I assure ...
by Angst
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard website problems [Transactions won't go through, 500 error...]
Replies: 101
Views: 4898

Re: Vanguard website today

Me too. All morning I've been unable to access "my retirement plans" to see my 401k account.
Here's the error:

Code: Select all

404 Not Found: Requested route ('pex-secure-overview.app.cf02.vanguard.com') does not exist.
by Angst
Wed Oct 10, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: HSA Bank Investment options
Replies: 4
Views: 306

Re: HSA Bank Investment options

Ignore the DEVENIR option entirely Use the brokerage option instead. You can search in the forum for something like "TD Ameritrade HSAbank" to find numerous threads discussing how people use them for their HSA accounts. As a starting point, the forum's Wiki site also covers it: https://www.boglehead...
by Angst
Tue Oct 09, 2018 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3240

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

I did open a position in VEGBX (Vanguard Emerging Market Bond Admiral Shares), Vanguard's active EM bond fund, when it went live last December. Despite the fact that emerging market equities have tanked over that period, VEGBX has not. It is actually my best-performing bond fund over that period. (...
by Angst
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Market Bond Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3240

Re: Emerging Market Bond Funds

I remember in years past when the virtues and pitfalls of investing in newly indexed EM Equity funds were first being discussed, a common complaint was how some of the equity, and some of the most desirable EM equity in particular, was often privately held or held by the governments themselves and t...
by Angst
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 93
Views: 22678

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

I have been dutifully building a TIPs ladder of individual securities over the last 5 years by buying individual 10 year TIPS at auctions. Given the shape of the yield curve, I have been thinking about chucking it and putting the whole lot into VTIP. Thoughts? I guess it might depend on why you hav...
by Angst
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Turning 70 1/2 next year 73% in US stocks in Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 2822

Re: Turning 70 1/2 next year 73% in US stocks in Portfolio

Invest the money according to your pre-existing IPS. IPS? Your investing plan: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Investment_policy_statement Then you already know where extra money goes because you've thought about your goals and personal situation. Defining clear objectives will determine how you co...
by Angst
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy I-bonds Oct 2018 for EF? If not, what else?
Replies: 7
Views: 1324

Re: Buy I-bonds Oct 2018 for EF? If not, what else?

Personally, I'd wait until the new fixed rate is announced Nov 1st. Right now it's 0.3% but it could go up in November. I'm fairly confident it won't go down and figure it would more likely go up... or stay the same. :) I'd put the $ in a MM fund and buy your I-Bonds at the end of November. It makes...
by Angst
Sat Sep 29, 2018 2:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 93
Views: 22678

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

thanks i wonder if at some point the real yield of short term tips will be higher than the real yield of long term tips? THat would certainly pose a puzzle for me in terms of my retirement liability matching strategy (in which i am seeking to match retirement spending needs 15-45 years out.) If tha...
by Angst
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS yields good yet?
Replies: 15
Views: 1533

Re: Are TIPS yields good yet?

5 year at 0.93%, up from 0.79% just two weeks ago. Are these numbers from the government website? Also I'm not sure how the taxes work with TIPS, did you include that? The US Treasury.gov website: https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/TextView.aspx?data=rea...
by Angst
Wed Sep 19, 2018 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."
Replies: 10
Views: 1190

Re: Matter/scatter, part 9. Small-cap value and the "ten-fund portfolio."

International wasn’t removed from the 10 funder though. It still contains emerging. At 6% or so it shouldn’t make a huge difference, but EM is volatile! Yes, but great work Nisi. Really interesting. My wish would be to do one more comparison: Instead of removing Int'l from the 10-Fund DFA Portfolio...
by Angst
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Jack Bogle Bobblehead
Replies: 24
Views: 3030

Re: Jack Bogle Bobblehead

I'm not sure if this one (below) was ever snapped up... If not, some of the more eager Bobblehead Bogleheads here ought to jointly purchase it and then they could rotate custody. Personally, I'd look forward to seeing the pics of how the various owners honor their visiting hero. Santa, what I want f...
by Angst
Tue Sep 18, 2018 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4668

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Oh ya, I had forgotten that access to the article was lost. I think Larry contacted the ETF.com people about the issue. Dave Google has a cached version of it here: https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:M5P_8yIg0m8J:https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-simple-f...
by Angst
Wed Sep 12, 2018 8:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?
Replies: 134
Views: 10369

Re: Argument for taking social security before 70. Comments?

My calculated break even at 66 vs 70 came out to 82 yrs and 68 vs 70 breakeven was 95. So I'll probably cut the difference and retire at 67 :) My suspician is that you need to check your math, unless what you're doing simply escapes me - granted, I have not crunched any of the numbers, but what you...
by Angst
Sat Sep 01, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 215232

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

I want to see good data that show what "premia" returns have been historically, and I don't recall having seen that. That is what people should be expecting from QSPIX. I can easily see what stocks have done over history, both on average and in terms of SD. Same with bonds. I supposed I could do th...
by Angst
Fri Aug 31, 2018 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 215232

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

My expectation from alternatives like QSPIX would be bond like returns [/b] with low correlation to the stock market. When I say "bond like", I remember what you used to get from bonds in the days before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the new normal, that is 5% to 6%. [Snip...] As has been said...
by Angst
Fri Aug 31, 2018 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1515
Views: 215232

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

My expectation from alternatives like QSPIX would be bond like returns [/b] with low correlation to the stock market. When I say "bond like", I remember what you used to get from bonds in the days before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and the new normal, that is 5% to 6%. [Snip...] As has been said...
by Angst
Fri Aug 31, 2018 9:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI
Replies: 3446
Views: 1021478

Re: What Book Are You Currently Reading? Part VI

Thank you VT and Fallible both for your observations. I believe the scope of Katherine Graham's book is huge compared to what "The Post" intended to cover, no fault of the movie, just fact. Graham's book is the movie I'd really love to see. For that matter, Eugene Meyer's life would even outdo Graha...