Search found 1657 matches

by Angst
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401K options, I think I can choose better funds
Replies: 12
Views: 294

Re: 401K options, I think I can choose better funds

Hello Community, I want some opinions about the funds offering provided by my employer. [Snip...] Now let's get to it: Below is the fund offering my plan has. My take is that I could be in lower expense ratio funds. (I have only been contributing for last than 6 months so I want to make a turn arou...
by Angst
Mon Feb 19, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

If I make believe that I just turned 40, this is how I'd address my little LMP for the future: Year 40 would be the beginning of my accumulation of 30-yr TIPS, and I'd confine my annual auction purchases to the annual contribution limit of my Roth IRA. I'd continue fully funding my 401k, 529, HSA a...
by Angst
Sun Feb 18, 2018 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

I've yet to purchase individual TIPs but am certainly intrigued. I am 70:30 with the bond portion in tax deferred. The bond portion is currently split between Vanguard's Short Term Bond fund and their TIPs Fund but as the market's previous years returns have pushed me closer to "winning the game" I...
by Angst
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me sensibly add EM and Dev into my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 512

Re: Please help me sensibly add EM and Dev into my portfolio

Sorry, I must have had it confused. So Developing and Emerging is one and the same. It appears then that International is broken up into only 2 subcategories, Developed and Developing (aka Emerging)? This makes the TSP I fund look even worse, as it doesn't include one out of only two international ...
by Angst
Sun Feb 18, 2018 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Please help me sensibly add EM and Dev into my portfolio
Replies: 13
Views: 512

Re: Please help me sensibly add EM and Dev into my portfolio

Inspired by this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=241997 I have wanted to add some Emerging and Developing markets into my asset allocation since I have started to take the Bogle style of investing pretty seriously. ~ 5 months ago. The following is my current asset alloc...
by Angst
Fri Feb 16, 2018 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Auction basics are explained here: https://explorebonds.com/topics/tips-auctions The Auction Date is the date when the Treasury Department actually holds the auction. The cutoff time is specified in the announcement, usually around 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time. Your order must be received on or before t...
by Angst
Wed Feb 14, 2018 10:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

We're up to about 1.02% today! Let's keep channeling those inflation fears, please... at least for the next 12 - 14 hours. :)
by Angst
Wed Feb 14, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4027

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

Bogleheads: I was intrigued by the above list of twelve factor funds so I checked with Morningstar to read their 1-yr; 3-yr; 5-yr and 10-yr history. Here's what I found: The bottom four funds (OMFL; MFUS; USMF; GMFL) are not listed by Morningstar. Of the eight remaining (none have been in business ...
by Angst
Wed Feb 14, 2018 2:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4027

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

Bogleheads: I was intrigued by the above list of twelve factor funds so I checked with Morningstar to read their 1-yr; 3-yr; 5-yr and 10-yr history. Here's what I found: The bottom four funds (OMFL; MFUS; USMF; GMFL) are not listed by Morningstar. Of the eight remaining (none have been in business ...
by Angst
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund
Replies: 52
Views: 4027

Re: Vanguard US Multifactor Fund

I googled and found a poorly-formatted preliminary prospectus which indicates an effective date of February 13, 2018, just in time for Valentine's Day! I tend to agree, although the SEC probably wouldn't. Quickly looked at the prospectus. This fund is nothing like the style premia multi factor fund...
by Angst
Mon Feb 12, 2018 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

I'm not 100% in agreement here. To me, the problem with this ^ is that "problem" needs to be plural. Can any of our new posters identify another one? Similar to what Yukon points out there is no guarantee that future TIPS will be linked to CPI-U. Yes, thank you triceratop! That's a bird in the hand...
by Angst
Mon Feb 12, 2018 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Since there are some new posters here I will restate what I have said before. First, I have no disagreement with a 30 year inflation adjusted LMP. But, with long term real rates at only about 1% compared to historical 2% to 3% I think that thirty year TIPS are too expensive. Instead of buying a thi...
by Angst
Mon Feb 12, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Still can't fathom purchasing a 30-year bond unless I was confident both the return and cash flow offered by the bond is all I would need. Looking back 30 years and seeing where rates were, and looking back 30 years before that, I just think it's crazy for individuals to do it otherwise. Perhaps if...
by Angst
Mon Feb 12, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip
Replies: 27
Views: 2695

Re: Larry Swedroe: Driver’s Behind The Dip

Honestly, yawns and milquetoasts come to mind... if all that Bogleheads can conclude from this article is "Oh yeah, Larry's got that right - the market can drop 50% anytime! Better have an appropriate AA, and stay the course!!" Well, duh... but I for one found the article somewhat disappointing. Thr...
by Angst
Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

So, even if you cannot imagine yourself thinking like this about your own needs, are you at least able to put yourself into a mindset where it might actually make a little sense to you? Or do you still think I'm just ("We're just", I'm not alone here after all!) nothing but "crazy"? :wink: I'm behi...
by Angst
Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

Still can't fathom purchasing a 30-year bond unless I was confident both the return and cash flow offered by the bond is all I would need. Looking back 30 years and seeing where rates were, and looking back 30 years before that, I just think it's crazy for individuals to do it otherwise. Perhaps if...
by Angst
Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 77
Views: 6130

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

jebmke wrote: I'll get interested again when the 10-year gets up in the 2% range. 1+ I wouldn't touch a 30 year bond instrument of any type now without an expected real yield of 2%. Rates on 10 yr and 30 yr. bonds are going up now and IMO that trend is likely to continue for some time. If you want ...
by Angst
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 15
Views: 2362

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

Wow, I can't imagine that people who want REITs specifically are happy about this at all, especially those who say it's a different asset class from regular stocks based on the structure. Well, there's still Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH). I don't imagine the performance difference would be anything s...
by Angst
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent (future) EE Bond purchases ?
Replies: 6
Views: 340

Re: Recent (future) EE Bond purchases ?

Interested to hear opinions from people who have either bought EE Bonds recently (last couple of years) or intend to. With rates for 20 year hitting ~3% do you thinks its prudent to dump recent purchases, and/or hold off future purchases , as its seems more risky, or continue to hold/buy (as a bet ...
by Angst
Mon Jan 29, 2018 9:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12917

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

Larry takes attacks on his integrity VERY SERIOUSLY. He emailed me a copy of one of his investment statements to prove he takes his own advice. He has AVRPX, LENDX, SRRIX in a tax advantaged account. Obviously I’m a highly biased huge fan of his. But just because I’m biased doesn’t mean I can’t be ...
by Angst
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attribution of historical TIPS vs. nominal Treasury return?
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Re: Attribution of historical TIPS vs. nominal Treasury return?

As such, the yield curve for nominal bonds is steeper than that it is for TIPS. And we can see that by comparing the inflation breakevens for various terms. Notice that the 5 year breakeven is consistently lower than for the longer terms: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.png?g=hMCW https...
by Angst
Wed Jan 24, 2018 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Attribution of historical TIPS vs. nominal Treasury return?
Replies: 12
Views: 829

Re: Attribution of historical TIPS vs. nominal Treasury return?

TIPS are still subject to interest-rate risk just like other bonds, too. I disagree. TIPS are only subject to changes in real interest rates. Other bonds are subject to changes in nominal interest rates. If a person believes that nominal rates will be more volatile than real interest rates going fo...
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A One World, Global Market for Stocks?
Replies: 13
Views: 1659

Re: A One World, Global Market for Stocks?

I look forward to reading the article. My initial reaction to the graphic is "Why is Japan so far off on its own?"
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 10082

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

@Angst Never say never. Sith happens. It sure does! That said I don't expect that the 30 will go negative. But if I was going to create a 30 year TIPS LMP under current conditions I would use triple rungs of ten's not single rungs of thirty's. Yes, I would have gathered this would be your way of do...
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 10082

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

This I find confusing. The Yield to Maturity calculation takes into account coupons. Otherwise your yield on a bond is very low. What you are really describing is a zero coupon bond. Where the discount at purchase means that the capital gain at redemption, annualized, gives you a YTM-- there's no r...
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 10082

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

For me personally, all I want or "expect" in real terms from my growing LMP's 2017 purchase at auction of $X,000 TIPS is its real purchase price equivalent 30 years from now, coupons are secondary. Except at a recent TIPS auction the real yield was negative which means you would not get your princi...
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 10082

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

This is a prudent approach: protect your $X from inflation for 10 or 30 years and ignore the coupons. Are you paying attention to the real rates? Or $X today = $X (real) in 2047 is enough for you? Victoria Oh I do pay attention to real rates! Like a hobby, but yes: "$X today = $X (real) in 2047" is...
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues
Replies: 8
Views: 772

Re: TIPS question - ytm for Jan vs. Jul issues

When you're in a crunch, who you gonna call? :wink:
by Angst
Mon Jul 24, 2017 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?
Replies: 101
Views: 10082

Re: Can a TIPS ladder 'fail' ?

So before we go off on different tangents, you might want to back up and state exactly what it is that you're expecting out of your TIPS ladder. Each rung at maturity delivers greater or equal in real terms that at which it was bought at. What else could or should one expect of it ? So from previou...
by Angst
Sun Jul 23, 2017 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US and International Bond Fund Allocation
Replies: 109
Views: 10104

Re: US and International Bond Fund Allocation

What I called a liability matching portfolio (Bill Bernstein), Sharpe calls a riskless portfolio (TIPS). So the the two portfolios, risk and riskless are separate. The market amount of int'l bonds is presently 21%. Any other allocation is betting, not investing. That's an interesting thought what y...
by Angst
Fri Jul 21, 2017 6:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle is pro-SCV!
Replies: 36
Views: 4679

Re: Bogle is pro-SCV!

[Snip...] 5) so arguably one could take 2 different roads: a) treasuries and small cap value or b) tips and total stock market. With a) the treasuries should hedge the deflationary scenaRios when scv does poorly. But i prefer b) as the inflation hedge is more guaranteed and tips offer some protecti...
by Angst
Fri Jul 21, 2017 4:47 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ibond purchases on treasurydirect
Replies: 11
Views: 1605

Re: ibond purchases on treasurydirect

Is it a direct deposit into the checking account I linked up, or do they send me a check, or does it collect virtually and I can check the amount under my account in the website? Ah, wouldn't that be nice! The Bogleheads Wiki pages on savings bonds should answer all your questions. In addition to t...
by Angst
Wed Jul 19, 2017 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Swensen Op Ed "Wall Street Profits by Putting Investors in the Slow Lane"
Replies: 15
Views: 1832

Re: New Swensen Op Ed "Wall Street Profits by Putting Investors in the Slow Lane"

However I don't see how this can matter too much for Bogleheads since the most popular Boglehead ETFs have 1-2c (about 0.01%) spreads, paid once or twice over one's lifetime. It's hard for me to conceptualize the significance, but Vanguard does the actual trading on the mutual fund side (and I supp...
by Angst
Wed Jul 19, 2017 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: New Swensen Op Ed "Wall Street Profits by Putting Investors in the Slow Lane"
Replies: 15
Views: 1832

Re: New Swensen Op Ed "Wall Street Profits by Putting Investors in the Slow Lane"

Good article. I like the last sentence - it's a good question. And btw, does anyone know what control Vanguard might have as far as how its trading is routed? [edit] Alright, here's that last sentence: Maybe it’s time for the Securities and Exchange Commission to start enforcing its own best-executi...
by Angst
Wed Jul 12, 2017 7:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

Thesaints wrote:Wouldn't holding beyond the 20-year mark be a mistake for essentially anybody ?
I don't suppose so. If someone's marginal tax rate is expected to plummet in year 22, can you not imagine waiting until year 22 to cash in their Savings Bond being a cost-effective choice?
by Angst
Wed Jul 12, 2017 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

Since about the 19 years I-Bonds have been around, there has only been two periods when the variable rate was negative: May 2009 and May 2015. Every other year the variable rate was higher then the 0.10% you get with EE-Bonds. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/IBondRateCh...
by Angst
Wed Jul 12, 2017 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

A 20-year rate of 3.50% on a Treasury issue looks like a bargain right now . Who can tell how it will look down the road, especially considering the huge early withdrawal penalty ? Yep - I am tempted to throw just 6k in this year and starting throwing 10k every year till I'm 50 years old. (I can us...
by Angst
Wed Jul 12, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

A 20-year rate of 3.50% on a Treasury issue looks like a bargain right now . Who can tell how it will look down the road, especially considering the huge early withdrawal penalty ? Yep - I am tempted to throw just 6k in this year and starting throwing 10k every year till I'm 50 years old. (I can us...
by Angst
Tue Jul 11, 2017 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

I've been buying EE Bonds since 2010 and I consider myself lucky , given where LT interest rates have been over the last 7 years. I'll continue buying them as long as the LT portion of the Treasury yield curve continues to look promising. But I'll also continue to be willing to capitulate on a few r...
by Angst
Tue Jul 11, 2017 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bonds?
Replies: 44
Views: 2639

Re: EE Bonds?

I thought of that too. But if my bonds stink, my stocks do well.. and vice versa. I just want some security when I hit late 40s, early 50s. I know "security" does not really exist BUT if my logic is correct with stocks/bonds, I'll be... ok. Haha. No - not with EE Bonds at least. To the extent this ...
by Angst
Sat Jul 08, 2017 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?
Replies: 59
Views: 8862

Re: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?

Just a couple days ago someone PM'd me about something I posted many months ago. I too assumed she hadn't read my post at all. But she hadn't read it yet . You never know when the poster will read a response. But even if they don't, it's quite possible the information you impart might help someone ...
by Angst
Wed Jul 05, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?
Replies: 59
Views: 8862

Re: Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession?

Hey everyone, I would like your advice on the following questions. I think a recession will occur in the near future. Should I still buy index funds now at such a high price before an impending recession? I have some stocks that are losing and some are gaining, but in the recession I expect it to d...
by Angst
Wed Jul 05, 2017 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics
Replies: 25
Views: 2188

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value v. Growth Investor Characteristics

Why would growth investing be a sign of overconfidence any more than value investing is ? Both investors think they can do better than the overall market. Unless, of course, one associates value investing with lower volatility, which is not necessarily true. I think it's all in the semantics. If th...
by Angst
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Where to View Total Eclipse? - Kansas City / Nashville et al
Replies: 98
Views: 7612

Re: Where to View Total Eclipse? - Kansas City

This is THE map you want to use - switch to "map" mode in upper right corner, and use the + button to zoom, don't dbl-click the map. Zoom in on Kansas City and pick your place, as close to the blue line as you can get. Can you get up to St. Joseph, MO? I'm just a 30 minute drive from totality. :) ht...
by Angst
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 12268

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

I apologize MindBogler - I assure you that everything I wrote in my post was done so with a smile, but perhaps with a somewhat poor choice of words. Random Walker (as well as many others here) is more capable of saying things with less clumsiness, and in proper measure: There's a difference between ...
by Angst
Wed Jun 28, 2017 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry
Replies: 142
Views: 12268

Re: Yes, This Is Market Timing: If the CAPE Goes Above 30, Bring on the Larry

Do you think we should follow their advice today and go 0% stocks for the next ten years? Even though there is no way to prove or disprove their model? Changing your AA based on market conditions (valuations) is absolutely market-timing. It's the DEFINITION of market-timing. You are changing your A...
by Angst
Wed Jun 28, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taxes on I Series Bonds negate purchasing power protection?
Replies: 12
Views: 1988

Re: Taxes on I Series Bonds negate purchasing power protection?

Not one bit if you use them to pay for your child's education, or your own for that matter.
by Angst
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?
Replies: 14
Views: 2820

Re: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?

Looking through their holdings it appears to me that the Australian banks are paying the highest rates, consistently over 1%, many instruments around 1.4%, some over 1.5%. I think the highest I saw was about 1.7%, but I couldn't sort by coupon.
by Angst
Mon Jun 26, 2017 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A TIPS is maturing in Fidelity. What to do?
Replies: 44
Views: 3241

Re: A TIPS is maturing in Fidelity. What to do?

Furthermore, individual investors have an advantage in being able to park money in CDs, including IRA CDs. And as Kevin has pointed out above, frequently CDs offer a clear advantage over TIPS. Yes, of course this has been fairly true at times, but it's also premised on a bet that nominal rates will...
by Angst
Mon Jun 26, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A TIPS is maturing in Fidelity. What to do?
Replies: 44
Views: 3241

Re: A TIPS is maturing in Fidelity. What to do?

...in today's environment of low, but rising, interest rates... Victoria, people (including far too many Bogleheads) have been wringing their hands over an expected, imminent rise in interest rates for about 7 years now. Acting upon these kinds of crystal ball predictions is somewhat like market-ti...