Search found 1729 matches

by Angst
Wed Jun 20, 2018 5:31 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Direct Question
Replies: 13
Views: 1178

Re: Treasury Direct Question

For my needs, I'd never buy anything but US Savings Bonds at Treasury Direct. As far as treasuries go, I get the same price at Vanguard (and one can elsewhere) but have the flexibility of already holding my treasuries at Vanguard where I have the bulk of all my other investments. It's so much easier...
by Angst
Thu May 24, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Wisdom teeth removal and HSA
Replies: 9
Views: 966

Re: Wisdom teeth removal and HSA

I would max my contributions to the HSA and wait until I have enough $ to pay out of pocket - I wouldn't touch that HSA for years, hopefully not until I'm in retirement and on Medicare. The HSA is perhaps the best long-term savings vehicle you can get. Search the site for past threads & look at the ...
by Angst
Fri May 11, 2018 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to play a country currency devaluation (e.g.: Argentina)
Replies: 3
Views: 419

Re: How to play a country currency devaluation (e.g.: Argentina)

This reminds me of a situation many years ago... 1980, to be precise, when I was traveling in Central America and I visited Nicaragua several times over the course of that year. I was far from alone in taking advantage of the black market for Cordobas. Officially 10/1 US$, but on the street, somethi...
by Angst
Tue May 08, 2018 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5026

Re: Retirement bonds

To be honest this whole thing sounds like an idea only an academic could love ( or a group of academics also known as a “pomposity of professors”...) In this case, I think there's a lot more "pie in the sky" going on here than pomposity, so I'm somewhat in agreement with you. But what's wrong with ...
by Angst
Tue May 08, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?
Replies: 69
Views: 6062

Re: Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?

Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds?....in which fund(s) and what percent of total bonds? Two of our three core holdings include foreign bonds: Total Bond Market Index is 5% foreign and Wellington's bond portfolio is 7% foreign . Do people in the forum hold foreign bonds? You bet they do, eve...
by Angst
Tue May 08, 2018 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?
Replies: 44
Views: 3700

Re: Why do so many Americans not own stocks?

I don't understand it. People complain about not having enough money . The fact is, the richest people own businesses, or are part-owners. That should give people a clue to buy stocks in companies. People can save up some money from their employment, in order to buy stocks. Why don't more people bu...
by Angst
Mon May 07, 2018 5:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: When to buy new underwear?
Replies: 86
Views: 6258

Re: When to buy new underwear?

When?!!
Well, about when I saw the title of this thread, that's when.
by Angst
Mon May 07, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement bonds
Replies: 49
Views: 5026

Re: Retirement bonds

I find these bonds to be a very interesting assets for retirement. They are basically zero principal 20 year bonds . Another way to think of them is mini 20 year fixed term income annuities. Yes, sounds nice! (Including the inflation component of course.) I've always kinda wished for zero-coupon TI...
by Angst
Wed May 02, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7279

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

Ah, to stroll down Memory Lane once again, where the self-evident convictions of youth reside...
by Angst
Mon Apr 30, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special
Replies: 49
Views: 7279

Re: Larry Swedroe: Real Estate Isn’t Special

When something gets “financialized”, it’s uniqueness seems to evaporate. As I’ve evolved into a major league factor and alt investor, this is a bit of a nagging concern for me. Of course my concern is greatest for the behavioral anomalies. Risk based sources of return should rationally persist. I d...
by Angst
Thu Apr 12, 2018 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)
Replies: 53
Views: 5190

Re: Introduction to Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS)

I think the presentation missed what I consider to be the best use for TIPS--that is for liability matching. As retirees withdrawing from our portfolio for living expenses, we are more concerned about predictable, real cash flow than income. As has been discussed on this board many times, nothing d...
by Angst
Mon Apr 09, 2018 11:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?
Replies: 31
Views: 3048

Re: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?

I wonder, is there a metric for "human capital" you could add to the graphics? Wage growth? Especially (of course) if it might counteract some of the "red circled" years. Good question. The only thing I can add is that historically, since the 1960s, wage growth has tended to increase as inflation h...
by Angst
Mon Apr 09, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?
Replies: 31
Views: 3048

Re: How Often Do Stocks & Bonds Suffer Concurrent Losses?

Very nice post Simplegift, thank you. I wonder, is there a metric for "human capital" you could add to the graphics? Wage growth? Especially (of course) if it might counteract some of the "red circled" years.
by Angst
Sun Apr 08, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Higher total income in retirement than during working?
Replies: 51
Views: 4784

Re: Higher total income in retirement than during working?

The "higher income in retirement" that I see people aspiring to is what I would casually call exceeding one's "net income" or "take-home pay". When working, both taxes and 401k/IRA expenditures can eat up a good portion of one's gross income, and it is the "net income" or "take-home pay" level that ...
by Angst
Mon Apr 02, 2018 6:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?
Replies: 37
Views: 3006

Re: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?

Clearly, we need a Boglehead to step up to the plate and buy one of these darn things so they can turn around and try to re-sell it! I've seen active auction links before at Vanguard for Treasury FRN's, so I do assume they can be bought as such. After buying their FRN, our intrepid volunteer would ...
by Angst
Mon Apr 02, 2018 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?
Replies: 37
Views: 3006

Re: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?

As far as I can tell you can't buy them at Vanguard on the secondary market. I'm hoping they'll be available at the auction later this month. Otherwise you can buy them at TreasuryDIrect and transfer them to Vanguard, but I think you have to mail in a form to do that. Clearly, we need a Boglehead t...
by Angst
Mon Apr 02, 2018 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?
Replies: 37
Views: 3006

Re: Treasury Floating Rate Note-Has its Time Arrived?

I just called the Vanguard Fixed Income Desk and asked if I could purchase Treasury FRN's at auction and sell them in the secondary market before the 2 year term is up. Their answer was yes. That clears up the liquidity issue from my standpoint. I have 200K sitting in Vanguard Federal MM that I'll ...
by Angst
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13898

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Thank you T for putting this all in perspective. So although LT bonds actually have been the ideal diversifier for the last 30 years or so, it looks like ST bonds are much safer now that rates appear to be bottoming out, perhaps even rising, after their slow 30-yr decline. Now, if rates end up stag...
by Angst
Sun Apr 01, 2018 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where Do Companies Earn Their Global Revenues?
Replies: 5
Views: 668

Re: Where Do Companies Earn Their Global Revenues?

Thank you for the update Simplegift! I do like the horizontal bar graph format more than the pie charts. I think it does a great job of presenting the various markets in a perspective more easily used for comparison. So by exclusively buying US companies, we are diversifying our revenue streams. So ...
by Angst
Tue Mar 27, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Just bought my first Treasury Bill...
Replies: 7
Views: 1335

Re: Just bought my first Treasury Bill...

why did you use Treasury Direct instead of Vanguard.com or Fidelity.com or Schwab.com or TDAmeritrade.com or WhateverIsYourBroker.com? +1 I find the Vanguard website much easier than Treasury Direct (TD) and there are no disadvantages I see to using Vanguard vs. TD, except perhaps for some people, ...
by Angst
Mon Mar 26, 2018 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 12534

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

Angst, I have no explanation. From my own observation, the real economy has not been doing well for a very long time. The Real Estate Bubble allow folks to use the house as an ATM and carry on the illusion a bit longer. This is just my opinion. Since I know nothing, be very skeptical about my perso...
by Angst
Mon Mar 26, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 12534

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

Interesting. The visual below helps put your point in perspective. Pretty impressive, to me. Are there other explanations besides 2008? The RE crash seems the obvious suspect. https://data.bls.gov/generated_files/graphics/latest_numbers_LNS11300000_1948_2018_all_period_M02_data.gif Angst, I have no...
by Angst
Mon Mar 26, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns
Replies: 178
Views: 12534

Re: Seasoned bogleheads repressing the thought of lower expected returns

[snip...] Unemployment statistic is a joke anyhow. Labor Participation Rate is a better raw statistic. Labor participation rate in 2008 was around 66%. It is around 63% now. There was no recovery for many folks since 2008. https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300000 KlangFool Interesting. The visua...
by Angst
Sun Mar 25, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: St Louis Bogleheads
Replies: 56
Views: 8840

Re: Saint Louis Area diehards

[Post merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek] fyi, I will be doing a talk at the STL Main Library downtown on 4/26 at 6 See you there Larry Awesome, Larry...is there a flier/website or other info for the talk? I'd like to try to come. The St. Louis City library has a fairly robust web presen...
by Angst
Thu Mar 22, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"
Replies: 31
Views: 3148

Re: "Smart Beta's Foundation Problem"

^ Whoa! That doesn't look too good. :shock:
by Angst
Thu Mar 22, 2018 12:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13898

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

High quality Short term bonds (and tbills) are basically uncorrellated to anything, so they are excellent diversifiers to equities regardless of economic conditions. Long treasuries historically have been moderately positively correlated to equity returns; however for the last 30-odd years, they've...
by Angst
Wed Mar 21, 2018 11:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 13898

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Nedsaid, Totally agree that markets have a way of finding the Achilles heel. I’m a huge believer in efficient markets. The evolution to factor addict took better part of a decade. The best diversifier is also the cheapest: high quality, short maturity bonds . Dave I'm confused here. (Nothing unusua...
by Angst
Tue Mar 20, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative to market cap weighted bond index
Replies: 11
Views: 636

Re: Alternative to market cap weighted bond index

I'm not of fan of market cap for bonds at all. I do follow the "safety" school of thought; I don't desire much but the safest of bonds, i.e. US Treasury. With no need for Muni's, and no corporates, junk, MBS, etc for me, I'd have no interest in holding 3 of 4 of the op's 25% groupings. I also don't ...
by Angst
Sun Mar 18, 2018 7:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best way to hold cash in retirement accounts??
Replies: 57
Views: 6517

Re: Best way to hold cash in retirement accounts??

I had the same idea as you when I "retired". I built a ten year TIPS ladder to meet my annual expenses above and beyond that not covered by SS and pension . I completed my TIPS ladder in the spring of '08 just in time to see TIPS which will behave "just like nominal Treasuries in an equity bear" ex...
by Angst
Fri Mar 16, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%

not big fan of EE bonds either. But i did recently buy some for the tax deferral and the doubling in 20 years. Grok and Angst, By destroying value I don't mean they aren't worth buying. If the dept of Agriculture sold one dollar worth of flour for 90 cents, but they put it in a special locked packa...
by Angst
Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1252

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

Nisi, I had a little trouble reconciling your numbers with the graph at first. Correct me if I'm wrong, but just looking at the graph, it appears to me that these numbers above must be for the period Dec 31, 2007 to Dec 31, 2008, or simply 2008. Including the next year as well, what I'd call "2008-...
by Angst
Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%

I have iBonds, but only because the yield happens to be higher than other things, given the risk. I dont know why the gov sells them, actually David Swensen talks about alignment of interests in cases like this. Since I bonds are owned mainly by US citizens, maybe it's ok if the US gvt gives a good...
by Angst
Fri Mar 16, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%

thanks. that was the article that prompted my post! i'm a big fan of bloomberg but i think the headline is slightly hyperbolic. the 2y year bei is a bit elevated. but the others are all the same. does that qualify for "fully inverted"? it's a catchy headline though... i also think talking about bre...
by Angst
Fri Mar 16, 2018 4:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%

Here is Bloomberg's explanation last week: U.S. Inflation Breakeven Curve Fully Inverts as Tariffs Loom “What the market is saying is that the factors that might cause inflation to pick up -- like for example, tariffs -- are likely to be transitory in nature,” said Michael Pond, the head of global i...
by Angst
Thu Mar 15, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%
Replies: 32
Views: 2779

Re: Break-even inflation curve flat at 2.09%

So according to Bloomberg, break-even inflation rates are at 2.09%ish for 5 year, 10 year and 30 year treasuries. If anything the curve is slightly inverted with the 5 year at 2.095% and the 30 year at 2.085%. I’m wondering what Bogleheads make of that. To me it is confirmation that Long term tips ...
by Angst
Thu Mar 15, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?
Replies: 13
Views: 1252

Re: Do You Believe Diversification Is More Important The Shorter The Time Frame?

If we look at 2008-2009, of course one of the things we find is that many of the new funds and strategies that are attracting interest were not obtainable as mutual funds at that time. But we can look at some that were. Source https://imgur.com/4CD6urn.png Asset class, percent decline from 12/31/20...
by Angst
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard portfolio analysis tool
Replies: 3
Views: 714

Re: Vanguard portfolio analysis tool

Primecap is my only holding in my Vanguard taxable account. The Vanguard portfolio analysis tool says that I have 100% domestic stocks, 0% international. This appears to be inaccurate since the Primecap fund has 10.2% foreign holdings. I am thinking it is probably best to make my own spreadsheet in...
by Angst
Wed Mar 14, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds
Replies: 46
Views: 4129

Re: Effect of interest rates on my bond funds

With the rising interest rates, how will this affect the bond price and yields? https://myphotos.mypclinuxos.com/images/patrick013/screen11262016140241.png The start and end of a major long term trend. [snip...] I prefer to call it the "ending" rather than the " end "; time will eventually let us k...
by Angst
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018
Replies: 37
Views: 3519

Re: CAPE in the Context of Real Rates & Inflation, 1880-2018

In the first chart below it appears that, with the exception of the Great Depression and the Great Recession, CAPE and inflation have been fairly consistently negatively correlated over the last century (low inflation = high CAPE and vice versa). [...] But when running the same analysis on CAPE and...
by Angst
Tue Mar 13, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?
Replies: 31
Views: 2920

Re: Backpacking in Guatemala and El Salvador?

Guatemala and El Salvador in particular have their problems. The State Dept warnings are worth reading. Do not travel at night. Use reputable travel agencies. Don't be seen drinking a lot of alcohol. Don't go out alone at night. Depending on where you are, don't go out at night at all. It all depend...
by Angst
Mon Mar 12, 2018 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others
Replies: 31
Views: 3632

Re: Momentum and P/E vs. Market Cap visualizations for new Vanguard factor ETFs and others

New album link: https://imgur.com/a/g0XAw I realized that it's actually 2-12 momentum, not 12-2. Um, you knew what I meant. Looking at it now, I'm not sure that the weights (dot sizes) are actually correct, in the sense that I may be running up into the minimum size allowed. Maybe? Well, at least t...
by Angst
Mon Mar 12, 2018 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?

Todd,is there any chance that this same graph is available with the Y-axis changed from % to $? Or adding it to the right side as a second Y-axis data measure. Yes, you can see that I'm somewhat obsessed with the idea of stripping the effect of PE from this data. I don't see any PE effect on the ch...
by Angst
Sun Mar 11, 2018 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?

Todd,is there any chance that this same graph is available with the Y-axis changed from % to $? Or adding it to the right side as a second Y-axis data measure. Yes, you can see that I'm somewhat obsessed with the idea of stripping the effect of PE from this data. I don't see any PE effect on the ch...
by Angst
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?

https://s9.postimg.org/dzbkk18yn/Rev_History_Chart.jpg Data Source: MSCI Todd, is there any chance that this same graph is available with the Y-axis changed from % to $? Or adding it to the right side as a second Y-axis data measure. Yes, you can see that I'm somewhat obsessed with the idea of stri...
by Angst
Sun Mar 11, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?

Its interesting that Pacific and Europe revenue exposure stayed relatively constant while North America decreased greatly in terms of revenue exposure. I wonder why that is. The increased EM revenue exposure makes total sense. American companies diversifying outside North America? Also the European...
by Angst
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Disrupted Active Investing. Now It Could Save It.
Replies: 8
Views: 2290

Re: Vanguard Disrupted Active Investing. Now It Could Save It.

Vanguard Active Vanguard, however, is changing the calculation. It recently rolled out actively managed ETFs with fees that are comparable to those of smart beta funds . Vanguard’s U.S. Value Factor ETF, for example, charges 0.13 percent a year, compared with 0.06 percent for Vanguard’s smart beta ...
by Angst
Fri Mar 09, 2018 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure in Various Stock Portfolios

The insight from Chan_va was that that international stocks have more revenue per percent of market cap than U.S. stocks. Hmm, I do remember that now. So if I split a hypothetical 2 M dollar portfolio into two, and half goes to the US, 70% of my 1 M US portfolio's sales come from the US, but even t...
by Angst
Fri Mar 09, 2018 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Revenue Exposure of Your Stock Portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 2178

Re: Global Revenue Exposure in Various Stock Portfolios

Todd, thank you for posting this. I remember your original thread well - it was interesting and provoked a lot of good discussion as I recall. I also remember asking you about showing the numbers for a purely international portfolio, simply for more complete perspective. You didn't have the numbers ...