Search found 2293 matches

by Angst
Sat May 23, 2020 1:35 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19
Replies: 116
Views: 8258

Re: Personal spending out of control after Covid-19

Going to a Crepe Myrtle is an interesting choice as that tree is super super super messy. Sorry, but this doesn't bode well. :shock: Be prepared for plenty of raking and clean-up. The alcohol issue is similar to what I've seen with a number of friends. I wonder if there isn't a forced excess of rou...
by Angst
Sat May 23, 2020 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Choice between two Vanguard funds for short term money
Replies: 12
Views: 1166

Re: Choice between two Vanguard funds for short term money

My concern with Vanguard Short-Term Inflation Protected Securities (VTSPX) is duration and possible short term nominal losses. The duration is 2.7 years... Not part of the "Brain Trust" here, but without thinking too hard, 2.7 years sounds to me like it might actually be a reasonable ballpark guess...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8709

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Emerging definition of markets has nothing to do with economy size. It has to do with ease of capital inflow and outflow, shareholder protections, openness to foreign ownership, market ownership, market entry for investors and market infrastructure such as clearing, settlement, custody, lending, sh...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8709

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Why China even is classified as ‘Emerging’ it is presumably second economy in the world? Something is shady about all this. Yes indeed, but I think it's you that's in the shade here. 8-) With minimal effort online one can shed some light on the issue by looking for the criteria that the likes of FT...
by Angst
Tue May 19, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8709

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly less than 10% pa, they ...
by Angst
Mon May 18, 2020 9:22 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)
Replies: 10
Views: 716

Re: Factor regression analysis on Vanguard Global Value Factor ETF (vvl.to)

US investors should know that this ETF is from Vanguard Canada. Although it's investment rules and implementation appear to be in keeping with the Vanguard factor ETFs provided in the US, we don't have access to it. I wish we did... https://www.vanguardcanada.ca/advisors/products/en/detail/etf/9795/...
by Angst
Mon May 11, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 5944

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

Should this be more of a "Do I Still Need an Emergency Fund" thread? If so, I think the answer might be "no". For people who have multiple years worth of taxable savings already I generally believe that "Emergency Funds", per se, are unnecessary. Have you already put dollars into I-Bonds? They have ...
by Angst
Thu May 07, 2020 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: June "Bogleheads on Investing" guest will be Dr. Ed Yardeni
Replies: 9
Views: 927

Re: June "Bogleheads on Investing" guest will be Dr. Ed Yardeni

This sounds great Rick, thank you.

Q1 - Why did Treasury decide to set the floor on coupons at 0.125% (for Treasury bonds and notes) rather than 0.0%, and does he agree with this decision?

Q2 - What are his thoughts in detail on future inflation levels in the US and worldwide?
by Angst
Mon May 04, 2020 6:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7953

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is h...
by Angst
Sun May 03, 2020 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7953

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... What I want.... is explicit percentages and std deviations of expected returns for those alts. 6% return and standard deviation about 10% I think are reasonable numbers Dave Thank you Dave, this is h...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7953

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns ... Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing. Do you estimate expected returns for equit...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7953

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Random Walker wrote:
Sat May 02, 2020 9:50 pm
The above mentioned alternatives (LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QSPRX) have equity like expected returns...
Please... that phrase should be banned from the forum. The only way to achieve "equity like expected returns" is with equity. Otherwise it's just marketing.
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Just so you know. If you find yourself approaching the phase-out income limit for using your I Bonds tax-free for qualifying educational expenses, you can always contribute to a 529 College Savings Plan while you're still eligible. The 529 is a qualifying educational expense and can continue to gro...
by Angst
Sat May 02, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 1983

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

Before the Accord, the New York Fed had run the market for government securities with an iron fist. A government securities dealer who wanted to change the price of a government bond by even a minuscule fractional amount would call Robert G. Rouse (head of the Fed’s New York Trading Desk) for permi...
by Angst
Thu Apr 30, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 1983

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

From the Fed's point of view, one thing about yield curve control that's different from QE is that the bonds they are buying wouldn't be added to their (already ballooning) balance sheet. Their plan, as I understand it, would be to just let the bonds they buy retire as they mature — so the program ...
by Angst
Thu Apr 30, 2020 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

For further reading: TipsWatch's calculation of the upcoming variable rate Treasury Direct I-bond Rates & Terms And if you really want all the legal mumbo-jumbo, check out Savings Bond Regulations , especially Part 359 Subpart A Thank you for this detailed explanation. Yes, I've updated my own orig...
by Angst
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?
Replies: 13
Views: 1983

Re: Fed to Start Managing the Yield Curve?

So perhaps we need to get used to the current real yield curve for TIPS, eh? Ughhh...
https://www.treasury.gov/resource-cente ... &year=2020
by Angst
Wed Apr 29, 2020 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1269

Re: Expected return of stocks equals EE savings bonds

I estimated the expected return on stocks and found it about the same as EE bonds held 20 years. Yes, but with EE bonds, you miss out on all the excitement. :) $10,000 for 19 years and 11 months in EE bonds at 0.10% would grow to $10,200 A few days later it would suddenly jump to $20,000 ... if you...
by Angst
Thu Apr 23, 2020 12:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 1824

Re: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds

https://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/quarterly-refunding/Documents/auctions.pdf I am planning to buy at the May 13 auction. Thank you for this helpful information. I have never bought a bond at auction before. Fred, In addition to getting the Announcement, Auction and Settleme...
by Angst
Thu Apr 23, 2020 10:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 1824

Re: I'd like to buy 30-year treasury bonds

A few weeks ago, I bought 5 short term treasuries at Vanguard....just to learn the process. I had to wait until after 8AM, then I logged in and went to Investing, CDs and Bonds. I had enough cash in my settlement account to cover my purchases...but you already know about that. I found what I wanted...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 205
Views: 19621

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

And how do you think LENDX is going to do? Peer-to-Peer lending seems a little worrisome right now. I've chosen not to follow it so I really have no opinion. I've simplified things over time. I'm sticking with stocks and bonds, including SCV, Int'l SC, Treasuries, TIPS and savings bonds and rebalan...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky
Replies: 205
Views: 19621

Re: Larry Swedroe: Munis Increasingly Risky

bck63 wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 3:11 pm
fredflinstone wrote:
Fri Apr 10, 2020 2:55 pm
Swedroe has been totally vindicated.
He's why I moved all my fixed income to treasuries.
He's why I bought PCRIX and QSPIX.
Just kidding, I love Larry, but it's ixnay on the IX-plays for me.
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 8:09 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report
Replies: 18
Views: 1802

Re: I-Bonds: March 2020 BLS CPI-U report

... from the BLS report this morning the new variable rate will be 1.06% (from an Sep 2019 to March 2020 increase of 0.53%). Yes, the 258.115 March CPI is a 0.53% increase over last September's 256.759. (To see, choose U.S. city average, All items - CUUR0000SA0 from the BLS CPI-U Top Picks page.) H...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Thank you @Day9 for the call-out, I appreciate it! I agree that if you have a 20-year time horizon and you can *absolutely* hold for 20 years, EE Bonds are an amazing investment in March 2020. You'll get about 3.5% yield, tax-deferred, when you double your money at exactly 20 years. You don't doubl...
by Angst
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?
Replies: 55
Views: 7433

Re: 2020 I Bonds: what's your plan?

Tipswatcher has said that the process the Treasury uses to set the fixed rate is undisclosed. His estimate is that it is usually 50bps less than where the 10 year TIPS constant maturity is at the time of May 1 (sort of). At this point, both the 5 year and 10 year TIPS constant maturity rate is well...
by Angst
Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

Somewhere between 0.0 and 0.2% - I'll guess 0.1%
by Angst
Tue Apr 07, 2020 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Price of long-term TIPS collapsed in mid-March. Why?
Replies: 10
Views: 921

Re: Price of long-term TIPS collapsed in mid-March. Why?

What accounts for this volatility... We had a few Forum posts about these wild gyrations in TIPS prices at the time. Those who commented felt it was, at first, panic selling of all assets (including safe assets like Treasuries) in a rush to cash, and then, a dramatic rebound due to the Fed announce...
by Angst
Mon Apr 06, 2020 4:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 111
Views: 35698

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

Ah, I see. I suppose it's either a typo or an inconsistency in their subset definitions. What else might it be? Could someone have forgotten to add the new Oct 2024 to the 1+ yr total, even though it made it into the 1-5 yr? If Treasury can mis-calculate the TIPS yield curve for almost a week and th...
by Angst
Mon Apr 06, 2020 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund
Replies: 111
Views: 35698

Re: Consistent Yield & Duration to Help Choose TIPS Fund

as another source, here are the real yields for some of the indices out of BloombergBarclaysLive as of 4/3: Is this info available at no charge on the internet, Grok? 1+ yr -0.09% (41 bonds) 41? I wonder which of the 42 TIPS maturing April 15, 2021 through February 15, 2050 is omitted and why? 1-5 ...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch
Replies: 138
Views: 21559

Re: I Bonds are a screaming buy - Tipswatch

One thing that I have wondered about, and so I thought I would ask here. What is the Treasury Department's rationale for having a $10,000 limit in the first place? As Mel said, perhaps they're targeted for "the small investor". For those of us who do find $10,000 to be a meaningful, significant ann...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 5:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It
Replies: 5
Views: 569

Re: Buying Individual TIPS, How Do You Do It

A TIPS fund has no more risks than any other bond fund. In fact it has one less risk, namely inflation risk. Any bond fund including a TIPS fund is like a rolling ladder of bonds except that you can only buy or sell the ladder as a whole . Thus to provide 15 years of spending with a fund you'd need...
by Angst
Sun Apr 05, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?
Replies: 57
Views: 4026

Re: Was 1970s inflation a one-time thing?

Just to be clear, the broad consensus is that inflation per se is not always or necessarily bad. The central bank's job is to print the right amount of money and use other policies in order to produce the right amount of inflation. For decades now, central banks have acknowledged inflation targets,...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody want to guess the bottom of this "dip"?
Replies: 573
Views: 37748

Re: Lets predict the bottom of this dip/recession

It'll be when Warren Buffett starts talking again.
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?
Replies: 23
Views: 1524

Re: Swedroe: Will negative yields lead to increased risk-taking?

Perhaps negative rates will help push people to think of rates in the terms that matter most: Real return. Today's 10-yr Treasury yield is at 0.62%. "At least that's not negative!" But the 10-yr Treasury real yield today is -0.46%, which suggests expected inflation 10 years out is roughly 1.08% What...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10827

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

I bought a big chunk of intermediate TIPS funds on 18 March when rates were ~ +0.5% (individual bonds were too tough to buy as were long term etf LTPZ due to lack of liquidity). With the rates now sunk down to ~ -0.5% the value is up ~10%. I'm torn between selling them for a quick profit or treasur...
by Angst
Fri Apr 03, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!
Replies: 116
Views: 10827

Re: TIPS Negative Real Yield - SOLD!

You must be trading in an alternative TIPS market to the one I see ? They were, briefly positive, but now that they've turned even more negative and the alternatives are offering higher yields, so the argument for selling and buying something else is much stronger that it was in late January. I sol...
by Angst
Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:24 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

Thanks for the information. Sounds like I should ditch my T-bills for MMA - at least for now. I missed my window for stopping a reinvestment that will be auctioned on Monday (noncompetitive bid). I learned quite a bit on this discussion too - thanks as always to the bogleheads! I did find this on t...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20257

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

One additional factor worth considering: In the interim, between the present when inflation is... whatever it is, and when inflation then has fallen to -2%, how much did your cash that you held all that time go up in value? Another factor worth considering: If over the course of an additional 6 mon...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20257

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

What's the real yield of a 1% coupon long Treasury if you have -2% deflation? Exactly 1% higher than 0%-yielding cash. That's the problem as I see it. Simple set of examples: One additional factor worth considering: In the interim, between the present when inflation is... whatever it is, and when i...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

And remember that in the 1970s it was common to have money market accounts that paid 6% interest while inflation was 8-10% So rates were effectively negative on cash.... Yeah, exactly. Real rates are an elusive, hidden construct. But put a negative sign in front of people's nose and they're gonna n...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS go Crazy!
Replies: 271
Views: 20257

Re: TIPS go Crazy!

a) I have no idea if flight to quality will behave the same. It might be interesting to find out. LTT still may be the cleanest dirty sheet in the laundry. b) No, I would not drop them due to a few years of negative yields. Such movements are temporary moments in time. I'm not ditching short TIPS b...
by Angst
Sun Mar 29, 2020 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

Yes I see this price to yield thing all the time with BIL. The quoted price has a sawtooth pattern that tracks the monthly dividend. The price varies about 15 cents between dividends to reflect the earned dividend value. It also clearly shows the price disruption in the Tbill market that happened i...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 4913

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

grok87 wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 4:43 pm
Angst wrote:
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm
As I recall, LTPZ did have a large spread. Then again, many other bond funds did too.
right but it was also trading at a large discount to NAV
Oh yes, indeed. That's right! My mind is so stuck on secondary market TIPS spreads, not funds.
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 6:31 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

I am wondering how these low rates are going to filter through ETFs like BIL (and mutual funds like VFISX) . I am interpreting this to mean that the BIL fund will pay about 0.0 % interest. But the fund value will be higher than 100% of NAV. Correct? Please tell me how this will work. I'm certainly ...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

So I do find it hard to imagine that Treasury doesn't already know what it will do about this and has a plan they can quickly implement once the time arrives. Would you agree? Would you care to speculate on what their plan may be? I'm sure the Treasury, who consults with the Fed which has a differe...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 4913

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

As I recall, LTPZ did have a large spread. Then again, many other bond funds did too.
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

The bids are not for the price the bidder will pay. They're for the yield the bidder will accept. At present it isn't possible to bid for a negative yield on nominal Treasuries, but that's a matter of technology and policy. Both can be changed without an act of Congress. No institutional investors,...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations
Replies: 61
Views: 4913

Re: TIPS Yield Curve & Changing Inflation Expectations

since march 9th 30 year tips have been on a wild ride from -0.20% on march 9th to +0.78% on march 19th to -0.11% yesterday evening (march 27th). in price terms, given the real duration of about 25, those 100 bps moves are about 25% price moves, down and up. grok, I really wanted to buy the Feb 2050...
by Angst
Sat Mar 28, 2020 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Negative T-bills
Replies: 39
Views: 2838

Re: Negative T-bills

It's also been my understanding that Treasury has already stated they would not issue TIPS (or bonds or notes either, I would assume) with less than a 0.125% coupon, but they certainly will accept bids that are high enough to make the effective YTM negative. Sounds like a distinction without a diff...