Search found 2058 matches

by Angst
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:42 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?
Replies: 50
Views: 4338

Re: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?

I am well aware of the current TIPS real returns. When you are talking about returns for tax-advantaged retirement accounts. You should always be looking at long term returns. That is why you have a diversified asset allocation. Focusing on a snapshot of current real returns on TIPS is like saying ...
by Angst
Fri Sep 27, 2019 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Do you wash berries?
Replies: 71
Views: 4152

Re: Do you wash berries?

TallBoy29er wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:23 am
Definitely wash. But only right before you eat. Washing right after purchase and storing in the refridge shortens the life (they get moldy).

Also see: https://www.driscolls.com.au/faqs
+1
If find they last much longer if I wait and then wash just the ones I'm using.
by Angst
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:44 am
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: SITE OFFLINE (Sep 27) Friday, 12:00 PM Eastern (16:00 UTC) - software upgrade
Replies: 8
Views: 590

Re: Site Offline TODAY! 12:00 PM Eastern (16:00 UTC) - software upgrade

Stinky wrote:
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:22 am
Thanks to all the BH admins for keeping the site up and running efficiently.
^ +1 Bump!
by Angst
Fri Sep 27, 2019 10:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?
Replies: 50
Views: 4338

Re: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?

If you want inflation protected bonds in a tax-advantaged accounts use TIPS. Their higher returns more than make up for the loss in state tax-free treatment and the OID "phantom" coupon interest kills you in a taxable account. Yes, there the risk of deflationary reduction in principal. This occurre...
by Angst
Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 7392

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

Nisi, and Angst Simple explanation. With today's valuations most financial economists forecast US equity returns to be in range of 6-7% or 4-5% above cash so yes I would say 4-5% above cash is equity like returns. Which is why IMO it is totally appropriate to use that phrase, equity like returns. A...
by Angst
Thu Sep 26, 2019 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 7392

Re: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

As Larry said above, “equity like returns” reasonably implies about 4-5% above riskless rate. Dave Thanks Dave, I hadn't seen that Larry posted that above. I'm not sure how " reasonably " plays into this though. Long term equity returns have averaged as high as 10%, depending on what data you like....
by Angst
Thu Sep 26, 2019 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Money Market Funds currently at Risk?
Replies: 12
Views: 1528

Re: Are Money Market Funds currently at Risk?

No, I don't think so.

The following thread has pretty much tracked the whole thing:
viewtopic.php?f=10&t=290684
by Angst
Thu Sep 26, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe Advocates: LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX
Replies: 119
Views: 7392

"Equity Like Returns" - LENDX, SRRIX, AVRPX, QRPRX/QSPRX

Larry, big fan. I'm sure there are many of us interested in your opinions. What do you think of LENDX going forward and would this fund be appropriate in taxable? I have always been interested in this fund after reading your book, but was hesitant because of the high fees. Im not Larry, but I’ll ta...
by Angst
Wed Sep 25, 2019 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble
Replies: 22
Views: 1972

Re: Bond bubble

There is also now the new factor of many bond ETFs which .must sell bonds to meet investor withdrawals and divest bonds that don't fit their index definition. Many bonds held in these ETFs are very thinly traded so it is unknown what would happen if the ETFs were forced to sell these bonds at once....
by Angst
Wed Sep 25, 2019 5:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 89
Views: 7590

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

The Fed is trying to establish a new normal now that they have the ability to pay interest on reserves. They want to keep the level of reserve balances high enough so that they don't need to routinely use temporary open market operations to manage the supply. But it is a work in progress. See this ...
by Angst
Wed Sep 25, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 89
Views: 7590

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

Oicuryy wrote:
Wed Sep 25, 2019 12:29 pm
The big(?) news recently is that the Fed was a day late restarting repurchase operations after a ten year hiatus.

Ron
I think I get that!
So then overall, maybe it's even a good sign, like we're finally getting back to normal here. :)
Seriously, is that at all correct?
by Angst
Wed Sep 25, 2019 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond bubble
Replies: 22
Views: 1972

Re: Bond bubble

There is also now the new factor of many bond ETFs which .must sell bonds to meet investor withdrawals and divest bonds that don't fit their index definition. Many bonds held in these ETFs are very thinly traded so it is unknown what would happen if the ETFs were forced to sell these bonds at once....
by Angst
Sun Sep 22, 2019 3:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?
Replies: 50
Views: 4338

Re: Should I buy I-bonds when I'm >30 years from retirement?

Currently my fixed income allocation is in Vanguard Total Bond and a fixed interest fund. I was considering buying I-bonds for their inflation protection/to act as a secondary emergency fund. I'm 27, I'm in the 24% federal tax bracket now, but expect to be in 32-35% by the end of my career. I'm con...
by Angst
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative
Replies: 26
Views: 2995

Re: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative

What kind of bonds/notes/bills? While there’s no law/regulation/executive order preventing the US Treasury from issuing them with negative rates , there’s also none which requires it to; the Treasury could simply stop at 0.01% (or whatever) if that were the political decision. Not true. Oicuryy poi...
by Angst
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative
Replies: 26
Views: 2995

Re: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative

What kind of bonds/notes/bills? While there’s no law/regulation/executive order preventing the US Treasury from issuing them with negative rates , there’s also none which requires it to; the Treasury could simply stop at 0.01% (or whatever) if that were the political decision. Not true. Oicuryy poi...
by Angst
Sun Sep 22, 2019 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative
Replies: 26
Views: 2995

Re: why buy bonds if interest rates become negative

While there’s no law/regulation/executive order preventing the US Treasury from issuing them with negative rates , there’s also none which requires it to; the Treasury could simply stop at 0.01% (or whatever) if that were the political decision. Not true. Oicuryy pointed out in another thread that ...
by Angst
Sat Sep 21, 2019 8:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 89
Views: 7590

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

Here is a table of the volume of money in REPO by the SOFR benchmark. Note the variability in the volume of money day by day: https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/AutoRates/Rates-Search-Results-Page Date Rate Volume in US$ billions 09/19 1.95 1,137 09/18 2.55 1,196 09/17 5.25 1,177 09/16 2.43 1,156 ...
by Angst
Fri Sep 20, 2019 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds reaching negative
Replies: 36
Views: 4605

Re: US Bonds reaching negative

We pulled out all the stops with fiscal and monetary stimulus and still we can't get the needle much about 3% and that for a short time. Something has changed. I don't think this is a correct assessment. At the risk of starting to get a bit into the realm of politics, we're nowhere close to having ...
by Angst
Thu Sep 19, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons
Replies: 145
Views: 8797

Re: Are TIPS really a good inflation hedge? Pros and Cons

The deflation protection offered by TIPS is contingent on holding them to maturity, since at maturity you will receive no less than the original principal. With nominals that's also the case. This assumes you bought your TIPs or nominals when they were issued. But if you are buying and selling TIPs...
by Angst
Thu Sep 19, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]
Replies: 89
Views: 7590

Re: Spike in Repo Rates [Fed Overnight Repurchase agreement]

For those who want to watch overnight rates. [Snip...] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=nFRK More info here. https://apps.newyorkfed.org/markets/autorates/sofr Ron Thank you for the links, I hadn't seen this before. I do wish the rates data went back farther than May 2018. [Edit] Now wait just ...
by Angst
Wed Sep 18, 2019 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Bonds reaching negative
Replies: 36
Views: 4605

Re: US Bonds reaching negative

(I'm retired and my portfolio is bond-heavy.) ... Currently, no Treasury securities of any term are anywhere close to being negative. The lowest is the five-year note with a coupon rate of +1.68%. The Fed just reduced the overnight rate to 1.75-2%. ... Good post, nisi, but I'm afraid its Yield to M...
by Angst
Mon Sep 16, 2019 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19107

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

^ I'm good with you here Doc. Don't really disagree with anything you say.
by Angst
Mon Sep 16, 2019 11:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19107

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Actual question, did he say that the stocks he rebalanced into did not then recover by 2013 or so? No, I do not believe that he ever said that. Not only did they recover but I had some 40% more shares because I rebalanced. Since my T's were in TIPS that rebalancing cost me mo than if they were nomi...
by Angst
Sun Sep 15, 2019 2:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 290
Views: 19107

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

In addition, please take into account liquidity risk. Longer terms TIPS fund was hit with what many believe was a liquidity risk issue in 2008. The thinking is you won't see that with nominals. Right. In the fall of 2007 I completed my 10 year liability matching TIPS ladder portfolio for my retirem...
by Angst
Thu Sep 12, 2019 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long duration is the "Sharpe" choice for aggressively positioned portfolios
Replies: 39
Views: 1515

Re: Long duration is the "Sharpe" choice for aggressively positioned portfolios

Those of us who are serious about this use Extended Duration funds. Substitute PEDIX for VUSUX and the drawdown decreases to -31%. Leveraged short term treasuries have been even sharper since 1991: And are the "top allocation teams" at Fidelity, T. Rowe Price, and elsewhere using STRIPS and leverag...
by Angst
Thu Sep 12, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds
Replies: 15
Views: 945

Re: Multifactor vs specialized factor funds

schismal wrote:
Thu Sep 12, 2019 7:15 am
[Snip...]

For instance, there are no shared funds between large cap momentum (e.g. MTUM) and small cap value (e.g. IJS) per the ETF fund overlap tool.

I was unaware of this nice little tool, neat! Thank you.
by Angst
Mon Sep 09, 2019 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection
Replies: 29
Views: 1940

Re: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection

KlangFool wrote:
Mon Sep 09, 2019 12:34 pm
If the interest rate drop, you refinance your mortgage.

KlangFool
:sharebeer
by Angst
Mon Sep 09, 2019 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection
Replies: 29
Views: 1940

Re: Inflation likelihood and inflation protection

Yes, but I need to post this as a community service. Paying off a sub-4% mortgage may not give a person feel warm and fuzzy especially if the same person believes that we will have a very high inflation rate in the future. The person had just given up the best inflation hedge that he/she had. Klang...
by Angst
Sun Sep 08, 2019 10:02 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25855

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Eyeballing your chart there's something of a shared low point I've identified as approximately 9/30/2002. Using Morningstar's growth charting, from that date to the present, growth of $10,000 in VTSAX would have exceeded VTIAX by $19,162 (VTSAX $53,532 vs. VTIAX $34,370). This dramatically contradi...
by Angst
Sun Sep 08, 2019 9:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25855

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

This dramatically contradicts the data your chart presents. There’s no contradiction: you’re looking at a more recent and shorter time period. Which is fine, except that focusing on recent periods has led many Bogleheads incorrectly conclude that international stocks have never outperformed US stoc...
by Angst
Sun Sep 08, 2019 7:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?
Replies: 297
Views: 25855

Re: VTIAX International fund - should I give up on it?

Does any data exist that shows VTIAX meaningfully outperformed VTSAX for a period of time or does it just add more eggs to the basket? Does 1961 to 2010 count? https://i.imgur.com/pBUkp35.png Eyeballing your chart there's something of a shared low point I've identified as approximately 9/30/2002. U...
by Angst
Wed Sep 04, 2019 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Series I bonds - question about compounding interest
Replies: 18
Views: 1730

Re: Series I bonds - question about compounding interest

I have searched this site, reddit and the Treasury Direct site and cannot seem to find a definitive answer regarding what happens to interest owed if I cash the bond in the day/month before it compounds. Interest on these bonds only compounds every 6 months. What happens if I cash the bond out in m...
by Angst
Wed Sep 04, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 3859

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

With I Bonds yielding .5% real return, I would purchase those for my first $10,000 (or $20,000 if married) and then TIPS above that. The I Bonds are very likely to go down after 10/31; maybe back to 0%. Good to know. I may buy $10k toward the end of September. There may be a rush the end of Sept - ...
by Angst
Wed Sep 04, 2019 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How
Replies: 64
Views: 3859

Re: Inflation Protected Securities: When to Get in, not How

With I Bonds yielding .5% real return, I would purchase those for my first $10,000 (or $20,000 if married) and then TIPS above that. The I Bonds are very likely to go down after 10/31; maybe back to 0%. +1 I can't think of any better "TIP" for investors in 2019 than to direct $10,000 of their fixed...
by Angst
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why does Vanguard call my 30-year treasury a "note"?
Replies: 5
Views: 814

Re: Why does Vanguard call my 30-year treasury a "note"?

This is just a minor curiosity but I am wondering why my 30 year Treasury is called a "Note" in my Vanguard account, when my others are called "Bond". I thought there are 30-year treasury bonds, 10-year Treasury notes, and 1-year Treasury bills. When I search for the CUSIP number every other result...
by Angst
Fri Aug 30, 2019 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Auctions - Are they Kind of Like an IPO?
Replies: 11
Views: 661

Re: Bond Auctions - Are they Kind of Like an IPO?

US Treasury bond auctions are relatively easy for an ordinary retail investor to get in on. I've bought many individual TIPS that way, though not recently (I threw in the towel on individual bonds and just use a TIPS mutual fund). The biggest problem is that there's only a short window, three days ...
by Angst
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rebalancing with EE Bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1302

Re: Rebalancing with EE Bonds

EE Bonds are messy. Personally, I choose to value my EE Bonds annually by accruing their implicit 3.53% rate. No, it's not "real" money I can spend, but yes, I plan to hold these to maturity and I believe that by accruing their implicit growth in value to my portfolio, this actually more accurately ...
by Angst
Thu Aug 29, 2019 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Series EE savings bonds attractive now?
Replies: 13
Views: 1147

Re: Series EE savings bonds attractive now?

What do you think of Series EE savings bonds these days? If held for 20 years, the effective return is 3.5%. 20 year treasuries currently yield 1.76%. There are definitely drawbacks - mostly, you get crushed if you sell early (return drops to 0.1%). I am finding them oddly compelling. At 0.1%, the ...
by Angst
Sun Aug 25, 2019 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21785

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

What's worst case scenario for holding all TBM in a negative interest rate environment? Or are you asking about the difference in returns once yields are negative? In this case we need to know the yields of each type and maturity of bond, as well as additional changes in yields going forward. Kevin...
by Angst
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019
Replies: 21
Views: 2220

Re: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019

Thank you grok for the link to Tipswatcher's article. No doubt about it, when it comes to interest rates, we're living in interesting times. No pun intended
by Angst
Thu Aug 22, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is 401K possible from perdiem job ?
Replies: 19
Views: 1083

Re: Is 401K possible from perdiem job ?

I'm interviewing today for position that is not full or even half time (10-19hrs/week). I'm wondering if it's worth a shot to ask about participating in their 401k. I looked on Brightscope, and I like their retirement plan options better than the one at my regular job. (I don't plan on giving up ol...
by Angst
Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019
Replies: 21
Views: 2220

Re: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019

Hey, so it looks like the high yield came in just in front of grok's line in the sand! Whew...
It was 0.501% That's more than a $150 premium per $1,000. Well, we saw that coming. :(

https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/preanre/2019/R_20190822_3.pdf
by Angst
Wed Aug 21, 2019 2:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Series EE Treasury bonds for kiddie tax arbitrage
Replies: 14
Views: 1000

Re: Series EE Treasury bonds for kiddie tax arbitrage

Don’t forget, perhaps your 25 year old fledgling will have some lingering student debt to pay off? Or graduate school approaching? Just more support for your basic idea: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/EE_savings_bonds#Tax-Free_Growth_for_Qualified_Education_Expenses This specific version of the ki...
by Angst
Wed Aug 21, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Series EE Treasury bonds for kiddie tax arbitrage
Replies: 14
Views: 1000

Re: Series EE Treasury bonds for kiddie tax arbitrage

Here's something that I am thinking about for my kids. (For what it's worth, I'm fine on the retirement, so let's leave that aside). Normally, the advice is to go extremely aggressive for younger kids. For my 5 year old, I currently have invested in a small cap index fund. However, I had the idea o...
by Angst
Tue Aug 20, 2019 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019
Replies: 21
Views: 2220

Re: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019

You're better off with I-Bonds than the upcoming 30-year TIP. I-bonds purchased before November will have a real yield of 0.50%. I'd fill that quota first. Already done! Me too! In a world of negative yields, that half percent real will look pretty good. Especially since you effectively have no ter...
by Angst
Tue Aug 20, 2019 8:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019
Replies: 21
Views: 2220

Re: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019

And lo, the fickle winds that blow and shift the sand beneath our feet.
by Angst
Mon Aug 19, 2019 5:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019
Replies: 21
Views: 2220

Re: Thirty Year TIPS Auction Thursday August 22 2019

Well, no surprise that I wish I'd bought all my 2019 30-yr TIPS back in February, rather than just 1/3 of them. Did not know at the time that re-openings were going to be cut back to August only (if I recall correctly, grok should be on vacation right now), nor did I know that we were destined for n...
by Angst
Mon Aug 19, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6755

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

If one thinks about interest rates as the "market price of time preferences," there's no need for a logic jump between rates being simply low and rates being negative. These are just on the same continuum of market prices, as I understand it. But that's just it: I'm not convinced that positive and ...
by Angst
Sun Aug 18, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6755

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

Several factors have been keeping U.S. real rates positive, including higher GDP growth relative to the rest of the world. But come the next recession, chances are the U.S. won't continue to be the exceptional case in the developed world. In fact, as of today, the real rate on the 10-year Treasury ...
by Angst
Wed Aug 14, 2019 10:23 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard trade glitch - okay to cancel?
Replies: 6
Views: 721

Re: Vanguard trade glitch - okay to cancel?

The same thing happened to me this morning. Actually, last night my limit buy order DID show up in my account as executed, but by this morning it had disappeared without a trace. I noticed it and called Vanguard and after a good while on the phone they figured it out and restored my trade. Contrary ...