Bogleheads.org

It's been a few years but most of this likely still holds true. How can we parents support his tennis passion along with his studies at high school and going on to college? It will probably take 2-3 hours of tennis per day 6-7 days per week with possibly some short breaks during winter time. Taking more that a day or two off is the difference between shots landing one inch inside the line and one inch outside the line. He takes part in local competitions and wants more and more of playing and competing. Local competitions are not enough. Will need to start playing in regional tournaments and get at least a state ranking. Plan on a lot of weekends at tournaments throughout the state. My 8th grader is very interested in tennis To be honest it...

The thing about going out and just doing the activities or things you've always wanted to do is that you will meet other people that share that passion. You will find new buddies to do things with. For old buddies the reality is they aren't likely to go out and do something new even if it is something they have talked about. Talk is cheap and if they are really interested then they would have likely done something similar to it already, at least once. For you old buddies you simply have to find something that you truly do have a common interest. And that is similar for family. For me, with family, I either visit them or go on a cruise with them. Cruises really aren't my thing but I enjoy the time with my family. Doing another type of trip w...

I break it down into 4 main income/asset structures:

equities
fixed income
property (inclusive of home ownership)
human capital / annuities / social security / pensions

I consider it risky when any one of the income/asset structures exceeds 40%. I could theoretically drop equities to 0% if the remaining three add up to 100% without any exceeding 40%. In reality, though, I'll probably never drop equities below 20%.

You can deposit as much as you like into T-Bills with them pretty much being totally guaranteed, physical gold in-hand totally eliminates counter-party risk, but has its own risks such as security of storage. Stock/Bond (T-Bill)/Commodity equal exposure diversity - such if concerns were increasing as to brokerages, concentration of wealth via a single counter-party, then the diversity of also holding T-Bills and gold might be more comfortable ...etc. Don't forget, governments can also make owing gold illegal -- we did here for 40 years. Gold doesn't serve the same purpose now as it did. The closest financial instrument probably now TIPS. So, yes, they could probably convert your TIPS to nominals. Although, they'd probably start by changing...

CtScrtDsse wrote: ↑Thu Mar 23, 2023 8:02 am ...I'm trying to find something reasonably priced that could last hopefully more than a summer or two...

Alternatively, you can probably find a quality, used bike for around 150 and then in two years re-sell it for around 120.

If the child is tall enough (sounds like they are) can alternatively just get a 16 inch bike and take the pedals off. Once they know how to handle the bike well put the pedals back on and within about 10 minutes they're off.

km91 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:30 pm

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Mon Mar 20, 2023 3:23 pm If the US stalls, you realize VT suffers quite a bit too, right?

At least the international holder has exposure to other markets to hopefully counteract some of hit coming from US. This is why we diversify. Why take the risk of being right or being wrong when I can hold the entire global stock market and never have to think about it

Could be the difference between a 4.0% WR and a 3.5% WR

If the US is hit harder than the rest of the world, then the US is likely to be more adversely affected. Just like if India is hit harder than the rest of the world it will probably be suffer more than the rest. At any particular time or time period the likelihood of all investable markets being hit equally hard is lower than an single market being hit disproportionately hard. I agree if I could only invest in one market it would be the US, but the US is still only one market, so riskier than investing in all of them. :oops: You still don't get it. This has little to do with equally hard or disproportionately hard. It is about your risk exposure on aggregate . Suppose you invest US / India / Europe 33% each. Sure, you reduced US risk; but ...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:04 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 5:00 pm For a left tail to occur the US equity percentage does not have to go 0%. The US market hasn't always been 60% and over the ensuing decades can certainly head back down the other direction.

It doesn't have to go to 0% but if you're holding VT today and a left tail (UK-style slow decline) occurs, then VT will have suffered 60% of the damages VTI will have suffered. It's turtles all the way down.

The US could be 60 units and ex-US 40 units. Time X later the US could still be at 60 units while ex-US is now at 60 units. How does VT suffer?

No, because risk doesn't always show up in every country during our investment horizon. If I am invested in 25 countries and risk shows up in 3 of them, I still have the benefit of 22 countries. If I only invest in one country and it happens to be one of those 3 countries where risk did show up I am out of luck. So diversifying does increases the odds of a risk occuring but it greatly decreases the consequences if it does. And this is what global SWR data shows us. But the math doesn't work that way when you're holding something like VT that is 60% US. Your composition is nowhere near 25 countries 4% each, and 3 go down only a -12% damage. If US was one of the three, you're -60%, just not -100%. For a left tail to occur the US equity perce...

Well for VT, the US is like 60% of the portfolio and China is probably like 3-4%? all of China could be wiped out for investing and it would have the same impact as if Microsoft disappeared. So maybe not that the US has higher geopolitical risk, but just there is nonzero risk, and so spreading some risk to other countries is reasonable. I don’t feel like I’m “loaded up” on China risk at just 3.4% of my portfolio Right, so VT being 60% US means it doesn't hedge all that well should the US face left-tail risk. You're correct that the China impact is smaller than I described, but whatever make up the 40% (Japan, Europe, Canada, UK etc etc) have left-tail risks of their own that you now carry by diversifying. If you calculate the total amount ...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:39 pm

Nathan Drake wrote: ↑Sun Mar 19, 2023 1:10 pm You don't know if it's going to matter a whole lot. Quit stating that you do. You are not a fortune teller, and despite what you might think, the last 100 years of modern financial markets is not a very long time period.

I do know it's not going to matter a whole lot: https://retirementresearcher.com/4-rule ... ound-world

I won't be here in a 100 years but what is likely to happen if we were to look at a chart then for the previous 100 years is that the World Portfolio is going to end up in essentially the same spot and all the other countries are going to move around to different positions. So you can either choose the world portfolio or roll the dice.

What are you after then? It's not really clear to me why you only want to buy a needle rather than the haystack. Because it's not going to matter a whole lot at the end of the day. Say we're betting on dice rolls. I bet $300 on the face 5; you bet $50 each on all 6 faces. Aside from the left-tail risk (i.e. face 5 doesn't show up at all for a very very long time), tell me how you are reducing any risk by betting 1/6th each on all faces. I showed you a period where it did matter. A lot. YOU DO NOT KNOW if it's going to matter a whole lot. That's precisely the point. There are a few US equity only members on this forum that are willing to chance left tail risk in order for a chance at right tail reward. I believe Marseille07 falls within thi...

...- SEP: I do not have an employer -- would this one work? I think I would have to set up a self-employment, which would massively complicate tax filing according to my accountant... It doesn't complicate tax filing at all. You are already set up for self-employment the second you became a freelancer. I am sure (at least when you were in the USA) that you were being taxed as a sole proprietor via Schedule C and paying appropriate SE taxes. Adding a SEP contribution to the mix isn't a big deal (from a tax standpoint) The bigger issue is that income typically is taxed (first) where the work is physically performed. So your income is likely UK taxable in which case you needed to have setup as some sort of sole proprietorship within the UK. I...

Seat selection for bus travel (particularly in less developed countries): - don't choose a seat right next to the door as it is easy for thieves to hop on/off with your belongings - seats at the back of the bus and over wheel wells are in for a bumpy ride - seats near roof vents can be a risk during rainstorms as they will often leak - windows and/or curtains are often shared between two rows; choose the row in which you have control of whether they are opened or closed - know the general route of travel so you know which side of the bus is exposed to the sun and opt for the other side of the bus - sit on the same side of bus where your luggage is stored under the bus so you can look out the window at the various stops along the way to make...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:48 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:43 pm In many countries around the globe US multinationals (backed by the US government via its economy but largely its military) have a stranglehold on the local market. So the geopolitical risk the US faces is more what happens to the success of these multinationals when the US can no longer effectively exert this authority.

Sure, I think that's absolutely true, along the same lines of holding onto the reserve currency status.

Again, if you question the future of US and think the US might fall, then obviously it makes sense to load up international to hedge that risk.

The US won't have to fall for this to occur just a waning of military power or foreign competition increasing.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:23 pm

km91 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 4:22 pm What was the probability of China crushing Alibaba, their flagship tech success story?

I was surprised it happened at all. But do you foresee the US government crushing Musk? That's the difference in geopolitical risk.

In many countries around the globe US multinationals (backed by the US government via its economy but largely its military) have a stranglehold on the local market. So the geopolitical risk the US faces is more what happens to the success of these multinationals when the US can no longer effectively exert this authority.

Country SWR data would disagree. SWR is not a measurement of risk reduction. It's one of the factors but you don't look at SWR to measure risk. It's like counting umbrella sales to measure precipitation of a city, just a bad metric to use for this circumstance. Risk needs to be defined here because you take on currency and geopolitical risk by buying international. Actually, in reality, you take on currency and geopolitical diversification which mitigates the impact of any individual country currency and/or geopolitical risk. Investing solely in the USA is basically playing financial russian roulette and pulling the trigger every 40 years. Some people are willing to take this bet. But let's not pretend this is the less risky solution.

SWR gives a direct indication of where risk actually has shown up. So, yes, it is not calculating some theoretical risk based on a risk free return. Since all assets in reality carry risk SWR data is way more practical and informative in generating an overall risk reduction strategy. Sure, but I haven't seen complete data clearly showing VT/BND combo performing better than VTI/BND. The 1966~1995 chart might not tell the whole story, and even if VT/BND did better during this time period, if we analyze other 30-year periods then the difference might be a wash too. Look across all countries. Global diversification reduces left tail risk. Your free to believe risks that have shown up in other countries will never show up in the USA but that is...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 1:49 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:56 pm Country SWR data would disagree.

SWR is not a measurement of risk reduction. It's one of the factors but you don't look at SWR to measure risk. It's like counting umbrella sales to measure precipitation of a city, just a bad metric to use for this circumstance.

SWR gives a direct indication of where risk actually has shown up. So, yes, it is not calculating some theoretical risk based on a risk free return. Since all assets in reality carry risk SWR data is way more practical and informative in generating an overall risk reduction strategy.

The probability of risk showing up increases. The impact of those risks decrease. Diversifying removes the extreme left and extreme right tails. Most of us don't need the extreme right tails yet the extreme left tails can be devastating. I agree, but it is a fool's errand to use equities to reduce risk. Having safer assets is far more effective in achieving the goal you're stating. That's why it makes sense to be well diversified in all imperfectly correlated investable assets in all countries. There are relatively safe ex-US assets and relatively risky ex-US assets, just as there are safe and risky US assets. Since these assets are imperfectly correlated, it makes sense to invest in all of them. That makes no sense. Investing in everythin...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:54 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:52 pm The probability of risk showing up increases. The impact of those risks decrease. Diversifying removes the extreme left and extreme right tails. Most of us don't need the extreme right tails yet the extreme left tails can be devastating.

I agree, but it is a fool's errand to use equities to reduce risk. Having safer assets is far more effective in achieving the goal you're stating.

Country SWR data would disagree.

Yes you are. If a disaster occurs in the US it's likely to be more significant for the US economy and market returns than it would be for global returns. The same way a disaster in say Laos would probably be more significant for that country than the US. Since we can't predict disaster, and they might occur anywhere (though some types of disaster are probably more likely in some areas than others), probabilistically investing in one country is riskier than investing globally. The math is pretty simple. If a disaster occurs in the US it would potentially harm 100% of a US-only investor's portfolio but only about 50% of a globally diversified portfolio (Canada and Mexico would probably also be harmed). Betting on one country, no matter how s...

JoMoney wrote: ↑Fri Mar 17, 2023 12:10 am I do think it's an interesting question to consider. I'm also interested in others speculations as to why, or if there are any definitive explanations made when they started. Perhaps it is of benefit to them that savers which might be concerned about inflation, have an option to do their saving in a dollar-denominated security rather than being drawn to holding precious metals, commodities, foreign currency, or something else outside the monetary system.

This is my guess as well. To keep those seeking an asset with inflation protection within the country's monetary system.

Matsushima would be a logical choice.

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:32 pm

thedaybeforetoday wrote: ↑Thu Mar 16, 2023 4:28 pm So, MMM numbers and financial plan worked until both didn't.
Got it.

That's a cynical view. He went through divorce if I understand correctly. If your plan doesn't work out because of that, can you fault him? I don't think so.

In fact lots of folks can't retire at all if they have to plan to stay bulletproof post-divorce.

I think it is actually even simpler than that. If one wanted advice on how to successfully have a 50+ year retirement one probably shouldn't go out seeking the advice of 35 year olds who have only been retired 5 years on how to do it.

On a few occassions I have pushed my bed up against the door as a precautionary measure. Also I aim to be off the ground floor. Ideally the second floor.

See here for some hacks for those looking for additional security measures in a typical type hotel room.

You have a NW of 400K and want to put a 200K downpayment on a 300K house. Not a problem.

If OP had retired about a year ago at the market peak and had done so at a 4% WR then they would be withdrawing essentially the same amount of money out now with a 5% WR. So, arguably, the plan should hold up just as well continuing forward. And, technically, should last just a tad bit longer as the current portfolio should be larger as it hadn't been reduced by an extra year of expenses.

This is something where you really need expert help from a travel agent that specialize in these matters. For more complicated itineraries in the past I have used Airtreks with good success. But your needs are likely too simplistic for them.

watchnerd wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 2:01 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Sun Mar 12, 2023 1:47 pm [So if you have a US bias and it underperforms you will be in a similar place as your peers and will probably get a bit of a bailout from the government. Now, if you diversify more globally and international underperforms you will likely find yourself a bit more alone and without handouts coming your way.

Where was the US stock bailout during the Lost Decade?

For the individual it was in the form of tax rate reductions, stimulus payments, the ability to delay payment of roth conversions and spread it out over 2 years, etc.

Well, I'm 100% US with 2.5 years to go until retirement. I've been US forever, initially due to ignorance, and most recently deliberately. I'm finally 100% indexed - the two-fund portfolio. At this stage of the game, do I take the next step and add international, or just stay the course? Perhaps the diversification maybe more important during retirement as less human capital is available to make up for 10 or 15 years of underperformance. Hi Blue456 - This is a very real risk indeed. Vince (Vineviz) has provided a graph that showed an investor retiring during a long period of US underperformance. May have been the 1970’s or 1980’s. When accounting for the returns over this period and drawdown, the result was the retiree had depleted their p...

Not sure if this belongs here or non-US investing but for those that have or have had UK National Insurance gaps, there appears to be a short-term opportunity to fill more than the usual 5-6 years back. Details here . I am trying to figure out if this makes sense for my wife or for me or both. We have both lived abroad for over 25 years. Right now, we are both non-US citizen permanent residents. We will likely expatriate sometime in the next 5-10 years... or become US citizens and move abroad (somewhat ironically), if the tax bill for expatriation cant be reduced to a reasonable level. I know I will get US social security if we do not expatriate but my wife will not and it seems like there is no equivalent for me to top that up for her. Bu...

I've lived next to freeways and otherwise busy roads and the noise generally isn't that big of issue overall. I'd be more more concerned with air quality depending on proximity to the highway, amount of congestion, and prevailing wind direction.

Countries that depend on trade with the US will be impacted greatly if the USD collapses. I think part of what makes this complicated is what happens over time will reflect various adjustments. US consumers that, say, are still spending out of work income will presumably eventually get paid something with real value--could be a lot more USD, could be something else, but it would have to be something commensurate with the real value of their labor. So too governments that are spending out of taxes, corporations spending out of operating income, and so on--they will get something to spend, whatever it might be And then if there are still personal consumers, government consumers, corporate consumers, and so on who need to buy things that are ...

gips wrote: ↑Mon Mar 06, 2023 4:02 pm I've often noticed a delay before my opponent's first move. I've always wondered if they are looking over my game history, is that common? Anyhow, lately I've been playing a lot of danish gambit in blitz, amazing how many people haven't memorized the best lines for black.

I don't know how common it is but on Lichess before making a move I will hover over the player's name to see their rating information. Most notably how their blitz rating compares to their rapid and also to get some idea of how many games they have played. This information can be useful (in blitz) in steering the game towards one that is more beneficial to me especially when it comes to flagging (or being flagged) by an opponent.

welldone wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 11:04 am

halfnine wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 8:33 am

theplayer11 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:12 am why all the London hate? I would chose London over most every other city mentioned here, including Paris.

Well, if the main purpose is for food and culture...then skip London.

Personally, for food and culture, I'd skip Europe altogether but, then again, that is not what the OP asked.

I disagree. If you love Indian, Middle Eastern and Chinese food, London is amazing for food.

I am quite familiar with London having lived there and returning frequently to visit family. Simply put I've had better Indian food in India, better Chinese food in China, and better Middle Eastern food in the Middle East. Going to London to experience other cultures food is a waste of time IMHO.

Tridentine wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 7:16 am ...Does this throw up red flags to you folks? Am I off base? Should I butt out?...

There are four future possibilities:

1. It works out and you didn't say anything
2. It works out but you said something
3. It doesn't work out and you didn't say anything
4. If doesn't work out you said something

Personally, I wouldn't be very happy with Number 3 with my parents. But every family is different.

I factor in the inheritance that I haven't received as a future inheritance for my own children. So that takes care of that.

For the inheritance that we (my nuclear family) are receiving every year (my father wants to whittle down their estate) we factor in the inheritance by doing the opposite of my father's investment strategy. For instance, in the go-go stock market years of the past decade my father went all in and so we decreased our equities accordingly. Now, with interest rates rising my father has completely shifted gears and has gone towards bonds. So, we've increased our equities accordingly.

theplayer11 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 08, 2023 6:12 am why all the London hate? I would chose London over most every other city mentioned here, including Paris.

Well, if the main purpose is for food and culture...then skip London.

Personally, for food and culture, I'd skip Europe altogether but, then again, that is not what the OP asked.

majasan wrote: ↑Fri Mar 03, 2023 8:54 am Try using bands for modified pull ups. There are youtube vids on this. Hope this helps.

There are some youtube vids showing some pretty funny failures as well.

The amount of train travel you are doing will take up way too much daytime hours. The only way to validate that amount of time on the train is to take overnight trains and stick to the major cities where transport is more frequent. Even then you'll need to be a bit of a masochist. I once had a 2 month Eurail Pass and spent 42 nights of it on overnight trains (back before reservations weren't always necessary and certainly less costly). I'd spend 5 nights on the trains and then midweek head to a different section of the Alps for a few days. Not for everyone. You'll also have to plan your timing with areas in and around Italy. Italy largely closes down over certain periods during the end of July and August which leads lot of Italians vacation...

All other things equal I look at SS as more of a risk diversification strategy. As such I am happy to wind down the portfolio and delay SS until it reaches 40% of my income stream. At that point I'll start receiving it.

Additionally, playing book moves might lead the cheater into unfamilar terrain where they don't necessarily understand the ideas and themes behind the position as opposed to if they just developed logically. I haven't played online recently, but that is what I experienced in online play 20+ years ago. Someone would blitz off moves in openings in which I was well versed, and then come to a grinding halt as soon as things left book lines, whether or not it was the actual end of the line. Subsequent moves would not be aligned with the demands of the position, and their position would deteriorate rapidly. What I've seen recently (and maybe it's always been the case) is that if you head down main line theory with adults of a similar rating ther...

ontario102 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 2:37 pm Responding to the inquiries about wife, she is:
-A US citizen
-Will not have SS on her own
-Is being considered in the plan to receive 1/2 of my SS while I'm alive and taking over when I pass.

Planning on her continuing to work through my retirement while in US, and her income will be a mitigating factor reducing further our draw need. It's just somewhat of an unknown how much at this point, so it's not factored into the analysis. It may reduce our draw from the 3% range to even less in the USA years.

OTOH it would appear to be best to delay SS to provide longevity insurance for your spouse.

Have you travelled away from home with a three month old? Not suggesting it’s impossible, but it would not be my choice of time to take a long vacation… It's not a vacation, it's parenting somewhere else. That said, lots of fams hike and stay active w young kids. I love the idea of going somewhere else for a month out of the snow. San Diego (and north up the coast) have lots of good options for hiking and being near the ocean. I would do this in a heartbeat with a full month off. I agree with you as well considering the kid will be 3 months old. Less than 3 months personally I would be less keen on making any non-refundable plans. Not because it isn't possible but it's possibility depend on the health of the child (and the mother) which al...

Marseille07 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 12:38 pm

halfnine wrote: ↑Wed Mar 01, 2023 11:43 am Cheaters often have only 100 games or less as well. Typically, when you are playing people that have thousands of games they haven't been cheating and aren't going to start as they have a lot vested in their current account.

I'm sure some folks with thousands of games under their belt do cheat from time to time, though. Maybe 1 out of 20 kind of a deal.

A former Latvian GM was caught cheating...he lost the GM norm and retired from the game. Stranger things happen.

I am sure tilted players can cheat from time to time and get away with it. Simply because they understand the difference between a human like move and an engine only move. I was commenting more on what us non-titled players are likely to experience online.

What is more typical of a cheater is to use around the same amount of time per move. That is typical of cheating with a computer. Cheating with an opening book shows as moving instantaneously until the end of a line in the book being used, then having think time increase considerably. Not exactly. It's going to take a second or two to find the appropriate move. Most people are blitzing out their openings for better or worse nearly instantaneously and a one or two second delay would be noticeable. And even then, in online play it is rare to go too deep down into book moves so most of the time it won't have much relevance. At least up to around Lichess 2200 which is going to encompass about 99% of the players. In which case, even if they do ...

...it's interesting he accused me of cheating while the game was going on which led me to wonder if he had a computer analyzing the position as we played. It's unlikely they were analyzing the position during the game. It was probably more of a gut feeling based on your playing style or they were tilted. At first I thought it was because I pre-moved 3-4 times but the accusations kept coming. Pre-moving is generally a sign that someone isn't cheating. What is more typical of a cheater is to use around the same amount of time per move. In online games typically players are either playing intuitive moves or are calculating. Intuitive moves come quite quickly and moves that require calculation generally take a while. When people play moves tha...

...My partner and I are considering a two-year (or maybe a couple more years, if possible) move abroad (in our case, Japan) and I'm trying to get a grasp of all the financial and logistical considerations of doing this... Japan is an extraordinary country to travel but a very tough country to live in unless you have family; are going as part of a company expat package; or will enjoy spending a majority of your time among the expat community. Home: We don't own property, so we'd end our rental and have to put stuff in storage, entailing that expense. Purge what you can but keep anything you would dread having to spend the time, money or energy to repurchase. Ship over at least a few boxes of items that will make your home life easier. Finan...