Search found 2399 matches

by halfnine
Mon Mar 11, 2024 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?
Replies: 55
Views: 5377

Re: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?

I disagree. It's a separate bucket of money in my view. Your home is just a decision about how you're going to pay for the housing expenses in your life. Just because it can appreciate and pays "saved rent" dividends doesn't mean it belongs in your portfolio, with or without a mortgage. Your car could appreciate and pays dividends of "saved Uber fees" but you don't count that in your portfolio. You can't be overexposed to real estate as an investment by owning a house because you're not exposed at all to real estate as an investment. if you sell your home and put it in your portfolio, THEN you can count it as an investment. But not before then. Kiyosaki got a lot of things wrong, but he certainly got one thing right: Yo...
by halfnine
Mon Mar 11, 2024 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?
Replies: 55
Views: 5377

Re: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?

This is the least sophisticated argument I've heard to not having a separate real estate allocation in your portfolio. Now I'll freely admit that real estate investing is optional, but don't pretend you're investing in real estate because you live in a house you own instead of rent. That's a consumption item, not an investment. Home equity should be irrelevant to your investment portfolio. Owning a Chevy is not the same as investing in General Motors and owning your house is not the same as owning a small apartment complex as an investment. I’ll take the “least sophisticated” remark as a compliment. The point I am making is that homeowners are sensitive to the real estate market, and people’s primary home is usually their largest asset. Of...
by halfnine
Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:20 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?
Replies: 55
Views: 5377

Re: REIT fund for buy and hold index investor?

OP, do you own a house already? If so, what percent of your overall assets is made up of the home equity? This is the least sophisticated argument I've heard to not having a separate real estate allocation in your portfolio. Now I'll freely admit that real estate investing is optional, but don't pretend you're investing in real estate because you live in a house you own instead of rent. That's a consumption item, not an investment. Home equity should be irrelevant to your investment portfolio. Owning a Chevy is not the same as investing in General Motors and owning your house is not the same as owning a small apartment complex as an investment. I’ll take the “least sophisticated” remark as a compliment. The point I am making is that homeow...
by halfnine
Mon Mar 11, 2024 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?
Replies: 205
Views: 21921

Re: Should one invest in gold? If so, how and how much?

...Warren Buffett on gold : "I will say this about gold. If you took all the gold in the world, it would roughly make a cube 67 feet on a side…Now for that same cube of gold, it would be worth at today's market prices about $7 trillion – that's probably about a third of the value of all the stocks in the United States…For $7 trillion…you could have all the farmland in the United States, you could have about seven Exxon Mobils (NYSE:XOM) and you could have a trillion dollars of walking-around money…And if you offered me the choice of looking at some 67 foot cube of gold and looking at it all day, and you know me touching it and fondling it occasionally…Call me crazy, but I'll take the farmland and the Exxon Mobils."... Gold has no...
by halfnine
Wed Feb 14, 2024 3:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pay cleaning lady for snow day?
Replies: 119
Views: 10092

Re: Pay cleaning lady for snow day?

I am going to speculate that maybe 70% of those in the No camp have never employed a good cleaner on a routine basis.
by halfnine
Sun Feb 11, 2024 11:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What types of volunteering do you enjoy?
Replies: 49
Views: 3950

Re: What types of volunteering do you enjoy?

I used to volunteer as part of a wintertime search and rescue group until I eventually tired of the internal politics. I imagine, though, that politics rears its head in many volunteering activities. I'd be interested in hearing about volunteering activities which people have enjoyed and that have been politically light.
by halfnine
Thu Feb 08, 2024 4:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Calling All Bicycle Tourists
Replies: 21
Views: 2116

Re: Calling All Bicycle Tourists

I have a general philosophy that I don't walk what I can ride and I don't ride what I can drive. So, most of my cycling adventures revolve more around offroad bikepacking. For those with that interest Bikepacking is a great source for routes. Now there are a few foreign destinations that I have been where I could definitely see rethinking my philosophy and hitting the tarmac. - Iceland - Ring Road. You'll likely need to do this is summer and logistically it is probably much easier to add camping into the mix. - Japan. Pretty much all of it but definitely Hokkaido. For Hokkaido this would likely require the summer time frame. - France - TdF route. Tour through the Pyrenees and Alps cycling the iconic climbs while catching a stage or two of t...
by halfnine
Mon Feb 05, 2024 3:17 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: China trip paranoia [visa requirements]
Replies: 68
Views: 6443

Re: China trip paranoia [visa requirements]

Thanks for all the replies. I admit to being a bit irritated by all this and more so because I just had gum surgery which is fun :( Anyway, I am understanding that I will not qualify for the 144 hour visa because my cruise ship by chance happened to visit S Korea last on its itinerary. I find that ridiculous but it is what it is. I will now have to pay about 1000 dollars for visas with a visa service to help me get the visas for my wife and I. I made the mistake of assuming the China visa was the same as all the other visas we have gotten, online. Never in a million years did I ever think we would have to go to the Embassy. In SF they only accept 150 people a day and lines form at 5 AM.. Not willing to do that for reasons not mentioning he...
by halfnine
Sat Feb 03, 2024 4:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: China trip paranoia [visa requirements]
Replies: 68
Views: 6443

Re: China trip paranoia

I don't know what the current requirements are in regards to having to make a visit the Consulate for visas but years back when I needed a visa from the Chinese Consulate instead of making the journey myself I was able to use a local Chinese run travel agency that was nearby. They would send someone to the Consulate a few times per month to handle the visas for their clients and for a small fee they were happy to handle mine as well. Just putting it out there as a possible option.

As to visiting, I have spent about 4 months there over a few trips including a longer trip overlanding north to south from Mongolia to Hong Kong. I wouldn't hesitate to go again.
by halfnine
Fri Feb 02, 2024 2:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?
Replies: 230
Views: 23997

Re: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?

jebmke wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 8:53 am
halfnine wrote: Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:06 am There was a huge increase in stock talk around the water cooler leading up to the Dot-com Bubble, the GFC, and also 2021. I don't sense any of that now.
All those people working from home. The cat isn't interested in stocks.
Well, I was using "water cooler" loosely. In my various circles there was a large uptick in people actively buying stocks. To me 2021 was a bit of a nothingburger which goes to say that irrational exumberance, tips from the shoeshine boy, etc. as a contrarian signal only carry so much weight. That and for each ensuing crisis the talk started sooner and lasted longer leaving anyone with contrarian tendencies at risk of being out of the market for far too long.
by halfnine
Fri Feb 02, 2024 5:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?
Replies: 230
Views: 23997

Re: Echoes of Dot Com Bubble?

There was a huge increase in stock talk around the water cooler leading up to the Dot-com Bubble, the GFC, and also 2021. I don't sense any of that now.
by halfnine
Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:51 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 65
Views: 11357

Re: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request

...We're still wondering however if anyone happens to have anything more to add to the financial aspects of our plans? Or has everything now been fully covered? For example we still don't know what the best withdrawal strategy will be for our particular situation or if we should plan on purchasing LTC INS but I'm sure there are several+ other things that are not fully settled yet as well... Any more thoughts?... The current trend (past 20 years) is for inflation in inexpensive foreign expat hotspots to exceed local US inflation so you might find your purchasing power slowly waning over the years. The biggest comment I can make to your financial plan is that of flexibility which mostly is going to mean if your finances exceed expecation you...
by halfnine
Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:43 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 65
Views: 11357

Re: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request

Regarding working overseas, we would indeed need to get work visas for any foreign work but working remotely for a US employer would be a much more preferred solution. We don't believe we'll be able to secure jobs like that (or we'd already be doing that now) so most likely that option is out. If we made a not-intended-to-ever-be-profitable YouTube channel where we made 1 (probably unwatchable due to lack of any editing/video skills) video per month documenting our travels would we then be able to write off some of our travel costs each year? Hmmm... Working overseas is still working overseas regardless of whether it is working remotely for a US employer or working for a local employer both which typically means the correct work visa and/o...
by halfnine
Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:19 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 65
Views: 11357

Re: Our Homemade Plan To Sell Everything & Travel The World Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request

...We have been traveling internationally for the past 10 years. We are avid scuba divers (200+ in 14 countries) and plan to slow travel and stay in each country as long as our visas allow. We plan to live in air b&b's and rent local apartments monthly, fly around as little as possible and to most likely re-visit many of the same countries each year. We plan to take trains/ferries/repositioning cruises in between countries and are comfortable with few material possessions/the lifestyle this will be. We plan to visit 5-7 countries per year starting in SEA so that we can dive while we are still at our physical best as well as letting our portfolio grow. We plan to fill our days just as we would want to if we retired here - hiking, diving...
by halfnine
Mon Jan 29, 2024 5:12 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Our Plan To Sell Everything & Travel Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request
Replies: 65
Views: 11357

Re: Our Homemade Plan To Sell Everything & Travel The World Full-Time - Plan & Portfolio Review Request

AnnetteLouisan wrote: Fri Jan 12, 2024 7:01 pm Have you traveled for over six months in one trip in the past?

It can be a strain in all sorts of ways to be away from home for years, switching countries often.

Is there a way to start small with a six week trip? You may not even like it.
Six weeks won't tell you anything about a much longer trip. They aren't even remotely comparable. This is my personal experience with multiple trips over 4-8 weeks, multiple year long trips, as well as being an expat for the last 20 years. For starters, it wouldn't be uncommon to take at least 3 weeks to find a rhythm and 2 months to find a flow.
by halfnine
Sat Jan 27, 2024 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yosemite vs Smokies vs ...
Replies: 58
Views: 5438

Re: Yosemite vs Smokies vs ...

While there is a plethora of remote backcountry to explore in Yosemite for all practical purposes it's really only available to backpackers from around July 15th to October 15th. Now, of course, some years the season might begin earlier and/or last later. But, certainly if you are planning a one-off trip it would be much more practical to stick to that summer season lest you be disappointed. There is also a winter season that again for practical planning purposes, runs January through February but this is limited to mostly one subset of the park (Badger Pass). This, of course, doesn't preclude anyone from doing day hikes from the Valley floor year round. Again, though, I wouldn't plan a one-off trip to Yosemite around a backpacking trip. Th...
by halfnine
Fri Jan 26, 2024 8:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Yosemite vs Smokies vs ...
Replies: 58
Views: 5438

Re: Yosemite vs Smokies vs ...

I've been to Yosemite NP probably at least 25 times, been there every month of the year, and have been down nearly every trail (100s of miles) with the exception of the areas in and around Hetch Hetchy. I have a few recommendations if you are only going to do it as a one-off. The first is to go there in a year with a good snow pack and visit when the water is at its highest. This is typically end of May beginning of June. Yes, there will be crowds but there is a reason and the reason is the waterfalls are spectacular (and I've seen some good ones: Victoria Falls, Dettifoss, etc). The second recommendation is to get a permit and do the Half Dome hike. A night on top of Half Dome is also spectacular and I'd recommend that as well but that isn...
by halfnine
Sun Jan 21, 2024 3:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Sell overseas land or not
Replies: 12
Views: 1391

Re: Sell overseas land or not

Owning foreign land and real estate is something my parents as well as siblings do as a method of diversification. What they don't do, though, is have more invested in land than in the market. If this is a substantial part of any sibling's NW then it would be in the best interest to sell it sooner rather than later.
by halfnine
Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Let's play chess
Replies: 987
Views: 97413

Re: Let's play chess

Halfnine, How strong is your child? That’s a great result! Kids official FIDE ratings (especially those who started during the pandemic) are all over the place where we live in Europe. The only kids who have anywhere near accurate ratings are getting 60+ rated games in per year and are skipping the junior tournaments (otherwise they lose their rating points back to underrated juniors). The top kids play this ratings game because it gets them some free GM coaching, the opportunity to represent their country, etc. But my kids aren't in the top tier and gaming the system to achieve the highest rating as early as possible it isn't a pathway that we are interested in pursuing. Now, to answer you question directly my youngest's current official ...
by halfnine
Sat Jan 13, 2024 6:12 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?
Replies: 28
Views: 3725

Re: Egypt / Kenya safari in October. Thoughts?

In general for safaris in East Africa you'll want to target the dry season just because the parks are vast (with the exception of Ngorongoro crater) and during the dry season the animals tend to congregrate in the same areas and the foliage isn't as lush making for easing spotting. Now October may or might not be fine. I don't have any experience with that time of year.
by halfnine
Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Let's play chess
Replies: 987
Views: 97413

Re: Let's play chess

My youngest hit a bit of a milestone the other day. Beat a GM for the first time in a 5+0 blitz game. It was a bit touch and go as promoted the last pawn to a queen with about 10 seconds on the clock and then did a 10 move queen/king checkmate with just a few seconds still remaining at the end. wow!!! congrats! I'm afraid the best I've done is a blitz win against a fide master and some wins in classical tournament chess against masters. Yeah, the win would definitely have been way less likely in a longer time control. The GM opted to offer a queen trade to go into an equal endgame in which most the minor pieces traded off quite quickly and then made a move that was a slight mistake. In a longer time control the mistake would have never hap...
by halfnine
Fri Jan 12, 2024 2:11 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: cross country ski recommendations
Replies: 13
Views: 1321

Re: cross country ski recommendations

It's been years since I've been out on skis but probably not too much has changed. My advice is to rent for the first year. Try different types of cross country skiing and different types of skis. Then you'll have a better idea of the type of skiing and the skis, bindings, etc that you are going to prefer.

Edited to add: Back when I was getting into xc and backcountry skiing the outfitter let the rental fees go towards a discount on new skis.
by halfnine
Fri Jan 12, 2024 11:11 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Let's play chess
Replies: 987
Views: 97413

Re: Let's play chess

My youngest hit a bit of a milestone the other day. Beat a GM for the first time in a 5+0 blitz game. It was a bit touch and go as promoted the last pawn to a queen with about 10 seconds on the clock and then did a 10 move queen/king checkmate with just a few seconds still remaining at the end.
by halfnine
Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:53 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: If you are able to accomplish these, please tell me how
Replies: 112
Views: 24925

Re: If you are able to accompliesh these, please tell me how

dukeblue219 wrote: Mon Jan 08, 2024 9:31 am ...You forgot to account for taking care of a 1 year old... that's 12 hours a day when they're not sleeping...
If our eldest got 12 hours of sleep in a day I would have been ecstatic. That kid slept nearly 1000 hours/year less then our second which essentially accounted for another part time job.
by halfnine
Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How big a portfolio is okay for 100% stock?
Replies: 115
Views: 20707

Re: How big a portfolio is okay for 100% stock?

passivechi wrote: Wed Jan 10, 2024 5:11 pm Although Dr. Bernstein famously states that one should quit playing once she/he wins, he has also noted that a wealthy person can afford the risk of 100% stock (in one of podcast interviews).

Question is: how wealthy? 10M, 20M, 50M? So one can tolerate 50% drop lasting for 1 or even 10 years?
Bernstein has also discussed deep risk. At those levels of wealth one one can start addressing those risks.
by halfnine
Mon Jan 08, 2024 8:50 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Winter Gloves and Socks for camping
Replies: 37
Views: 5166

Re: Winter Gloves and Socks for camping

I prefer to use thin gloves inside mittens. The mittens themselves coming with or fabricated with idiot cords. When I need to do more intricate work with my fingers I remove the mittens. Again this is my preference in general but doesn't necessarily work with all outdoor scenarios. But whatever system you use it can be important to practice operating stoves, setting up tents, etc with whatever system you've established at home. The more you practice the simpler and easier it is to do without bare hands out in the field. For situations where I might be exposed to more biting rain instead of freezing cold and snow, I opt to bring along some thin nitrile exam gloves to handle the wet and cold for brief tasks. I've found them especially benefic...
by halfnine
Sat Jan 06, 2024 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Super awkward new employer situation
Replies: 144
Views: 26118

Re: Super awkward new employer situation

I naively assumed that the director who hired me had the authority to cut any kind of deal with me we agreed to. My previous boss was VP of global operations at our company and oversaw thousands of people in the U.S., India, Vietnam, Philippines and China. He had lots of actual power so if he said something it stuck--and HR would just have to figure it out. He was a very practical person who didn't care much for company handbooks or trivial policies. He told me the year he hired me that doing so was the best decision he'd made all year. I am going to speculate that the company simply couldn't honor the hours/pay within their framework without causing angst with other employees, HR, management, etc. As a contractor this is no longer an issu...
by halfnine
Fri Jan 05, 2024 3:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Winter Gloves and Socks for camping
Replies: 37
Views: 5166

Re: Winter Gloves and Socks for camping

livesoft wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 2:28 pm
GAAP wrote: Fri Jan 05, 2024 1:49 pm Down booties would make more sense to me.
That's what I use.

One can put hot water in a plastic bottle and put it down at your feet. Some folks will use a Nalgene bottle.

For hands, use mittens or glo-mitts over thin liner gloves. And chemical hand warmers if needed. Add waterproof-breathable mitten shells if needed.
All of this.

And I'll add that wide mouth nalgene bottles typically work better all around in the winter. And a pee bottle can come in handy if you don't want to have to warm up all your digits in the middle of the night. The pee bottle should be different dimensions than the nalgene for obvious reasons.
by halfnine
Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:22 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return
Replies: 33
Views: 3773

Re: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return

Inflation was definitely a factor. I just have a hard time believing a 15x increase in gold was solely the result of a 2x increase in CPI. Either way, the point was that the 50 year average is significantly skewed by one 8 year period of crazy outperformance that is not likely to repeat. Of course people didn’t “know” massive inflation was going to be beaten by volker so quickly. It’s entirely plausible the growth through the 70s was pricing in future inflation that never came to pass. Looking at the growth of gold from 72-00 paints (once it was very clear the 70s inflation was beaten) a calmer picture of an 6x growth in price If one accepts that inflation and inflation expectations mattered, then the only way of knowing it is “unlikely to...
by halfnine
Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gate1 East Africa safari
Replies: 13
Views: 1603

Re: Gate1 East Africa safari

... because we are likely to use [an] agent{s} for Bhutan, Nepal, and India in 2025... For Bhutan you should (at least historically) be able to arrange a tour with a Bhutanese company for just the two of you. Back when we did this it was a $50 premium per person ($250/day per person instead of $200/day). It was worth every additionaly penny as with the right tour operator you can customize the entire trip to your preference. We fley into Paro and exited out by the land border with India which minimized any need for backtracking along our journey. Along the way we ultimately adapted our itinerary and ended up spending a day with the guide's parents and siblings out on their rural farmland and it was one of the many highlights of the journey.
by halfnine
Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:57 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Gate1 East Africa safari
Replies: 13
Views: 1603

Re: Gate1 East Africa safari

Safaris are a completely different trip and going with a 3rd party to organize all the logistics is a smart move. We've never used Gate 1 so I can't comment on them specifically, but having done a couple of safaris, the most recent one (this past summer) to exactly the same areas (Crater and Serengeti I'm assuming?) + Rwanda for the gorillas. We're pretty independent travelers so did all the flights ourselves and used a local Tanzania-based group for everything else including airport pickups, guide in the 2 parks + dedicated vehicle, etc. I can suggest the following; - There's a clear trade-off between time and money in safaris in general and the Serengeti area specifically given the large distances. For example, depending on your starting...
by halfnine
Mon Jan 01, 2024 2:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Would you move midlife because a community doesn’t click
Replies: 63
Views: 14497

Re: Would you move midlife because a community doesn’t click

If the kids are still in primary school, yes I'd move. But if they are older I wouldn't move until they are done with school.

Disclosure: Moved many times as a child and the only one that bit hard was when I was a teenager. Have also moved my children twice.
by halfnine
Sun Dec 31, 2023 3:17 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return
Replies: 33
Views: 3773

Re: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return

The problem is that gold's performance is so "bursty" that all results are hugely dependent on endpoints. Gold has spiked twice since 1972. You have a period of 52 years, but really the dependability of your averages is more like N = 2 than N = 52. And longer time periods are not uniform, because they depend on political watersheds like whether we are on or off the gold standard. Is there an agreed upon start date for analyzing the performance of gold that eliminates the transitory effects of getting off the gold standard? For example, by 1980 are the price fluctuations of gold due to factors unrelated to getting off the gold standard? I believe when Simon was Secretary of the Treasury he informed Nixon that gold was now overpric...
by halfnine
Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:37 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you regret taking a a break from work?
Replies: 13
Views: 1927

Re: Do you regret taking a a break from work?

I took a year off on my own, a year off with my future spouse, both of us took a year off after our first was born, and then both of us took a year off when our second was born. Regrets...nah.
by halfnine
Sun Dec 31, 2023 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Trip report: Everest Basecamp 3 high passes trek 2023
Replies: 63
Views: 20418

Re: Trip report: Everest Basecamp 3 high passes trek 2023

It’s funny you posted this. I just got back about three weeks ago from there. I did lukla to gokyo ri to renjo Pass and then back down to lukla. I think renjo is one of the three passes. Had I known more about it I would have scheduled my trip to do three passes instead of the one. Absolutely spectacular. You said you usually do one big trip a year? I am looking at other trips now. I am scheduled to do the O circuit in Patagonia. Where else have you been and where do you recommend? O is absolutely amazing. I am glad you are doing O instead of just W. That Gray glacier can't be seen from W. And other parts are equally beautiful. I have done Inca Trail, Annapurna Basecamp, Avenue of Volcanoes (Ecuador) ,TMB, Kilimanjaro etc. Highly recommend...
by halfnine
Sun Dec 31, 2023 12:30 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return
Replies: 33
Views: 3773

Re: Gold and Risk Adjusted Return

Watchtower34 wrote: Sat Dec 30, 2023 8:50 am ...I tried adding a small gold allocation to different portfolio types and was surprised to see long term, risk adjusted returns increase in almost all examples...
Across countries a small allocation to gold has done a good job of mitigating extreme left tail risks in an otherwise globally diversified portfolio. Typically this has come at the expense of the right tail and has also shifted median results a bit to the left.
by halfnine
Wed Dec 27, 2023 12:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Telling our children about your net worth - pros and cons?
Replies: 181
Views: 27463

Re: Telling our children about your net worth - pros and cons?

With that kind of NW I would buy my child a house. The expectation being of course that in turn they would have to continue to save money to pay it forward and buy their own children houses. I'd also likely tell them we have quite a bit of money saved to handle sequence of return risk. If that doesn't show up then they will inherit it and it would be there for them to take care of their own sequence of return risk. Of course, the expectation being that this would not absolve them from saving for their own retirement and they should still be targeting somewhere around 4 percent. Furthermore, if sequence of return risk doesn't show up for them, the expectation would be that is passed on to their own children. The main point we are trying to p...
by halfnine
Mon Dec 25, 2023 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma
Replies: 105
Views: 12933

Re: Inheritance Financial/Moral Dilemma

Your children will come to their own conclusions as to what is fair. This might or might not be 50/50 and their opinions may very will differ. But one thing is for certain, once you are dead you will have no influence over the conclusion each child comes to. And it is ultimately your choice whether you choose to kick this can down the road or not.
by halfnine
Mon Dec 25, 2023 3:15 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Pros and cons of synthetic fabrics, do any of them actually breathe, and which is best?
Replies: 28
Views: 2680

Re: Pros and cons of synthetic fabrics, do any of them actually breathe, and which is best?

...They wick sweat, pack down, don't wrinkle, and dry quickly... On a day to day basis I rarely need a shirt to do any of these things so these features aren't all that relevant. And most of the time I am exercising I actually prefer a shirt that doesn't wick sweat away because the water next to my skin has the cooling effect that I am desiring. This is also particularly beneficial on multiday hikes where distance between water sources are great and one wants to minimize how much water one wants to lose through sweat because it will all need to be replenished. As to travel, I bring a mixture for versatility. So a cotton shirt, cotton/synthetic blend, wool shirt and a synthetic shirt often make it in my pack especially on multi-month or yea...
by halfnine
Mon Dec 18, 2023 2:49 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: SIL considering a PhD in Engineering, worth it?
Replies: 97
Views: 14278

Re: SIL considering a PhD in Engineering, worth it?

In my engineering field and to the extent I can control it I don't work with, work for, or hire engineers with a PhD. More often than not is was just a huge headache. OP, it is very important that you SIL truly understands the field they would like to work in and understand whether it will help or possibly even hurt their career.
by halfnine
Sun Dec 17, 2023 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Winning the game and Dry Powder
Replies: 157
Views: 25986

Re: Winning the game and Dry Powder

I don't believe the game is truly ever won. I'd use the money to help hedge against low probability, high risk events.
by halfnine
Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
Replies: 210
Views: 134530

Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M

the impact of divorce deserves to be highlighted more it will slice your assets in half while increasing your expenses it is largely out of your control. you can do your best to prevent it. but making huge lifestyle adjustments such as retirement and an out-of-state move are things that increase the stresses on a marriage. they also accelerate personal change and the chance you grow apart or somebody becomes unhappy. I am not so sure. If OP is working and gets divorced retirement will be forever out of the question as they will have to continue to work to pay significant future obligations in both alimony and child support. If they get divorced while retired these mandated expenses will likely disappear. I think the divorce scenario if you...
by halfnine
Sat Dec 16, 2023 12:06 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
Replies: 210
Views: 134530

Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M

cchrissyy wrote: Sat Dec 16, 2023 11:18 am the impact of divorce deserves to be highlighted more

it will slice your assets in half while increasing your expenses

it is largely out of your control. you can do your best to prevent it. but making huge lifestyle adjustments such as retirement and an out-of-state move are things that increase the stresses on a marriage. they also accelerate personal change and the chance you grow apart or somebody becomes unhappy.
I am not so sure. If OP is working and gets divorced retirement will be forever out of the question as they will have to continue to work to pay significant future obligations in both alimony and child support. If they get divorced while retired these mandated expenses will likely disappear.
by halfnine
Fri Dec 15, 2023 5:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832482

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

I can think of three arguments for US equities:

- Don't fight the Fed
- Don't fight imperialism
- Government bailouts (reduced taxes, stimulus payments, etc.) that reduce home bias risk when risk shows up. No such bailouts exist when international risk shows up.

I still invest globally because the first one might not last my lifetime, the second one might have reached peak saturation, and the last one I would still have enough that it isn't going to be that big of a deal.
by halfnine
Fri Dec 15, 2023 5:12 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M
Replies: 210
Views: 134530

Re: Retiring at age 40 with $2.4M

If you are flexible then yes you can. My spouse and I did something quite similar when we hit 40. However, while the kids are minors and in the school system we prefer to work to what amounts to part time. If we opted for an alternative lifestyle and were willing to pull the kids out of traditional schooling we probably wouldn't work at all. But for various reasons that isn't a fit for our family. So since the kids time and lifestyles are dictated by traditional schooling many of the options and activities we would pursue aren't available or are severely restricted. As such part time work fills the void.
by halfnine
Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:25 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Plan my retirement travel for me!
Replies: 65
Views: 10786

Re: Plan my retirement travel for me!

JBTX wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:20 pm ... I could take my young adult daughter on some trips, or my young adult disabled son...
Do these first. The older you get the harder its going to be.
JBTX wrote: Thu Dec 07, 2023 11:20 pmWould love to see much of Europe and UK, also Japan. NZ and Australia again would be nice. I’d probably want a bit more experience before heading to places a bit more exotic than that.
There is an alternative view. You will make mistakes in the beginning. Making mistakes in less-exotic but typically much more expensive countries will cost you a lot more money to remedy.
by halfnine
Wed Dec 13, 2023 4:13 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: US citizen expatriating cash
Replies: 39
Views: 4199

Re: US citizen expatriating cash

We have citizenship and assets (including real estate) spread across four continents and have lived in quite a few countries inclusive of the USA.
eucalyptus wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 6:00 am ... It may be that I could accomplish my goals by moving to, or buying real estate in, a US region more compatible with my personal beliefs, and that's also an option...
When you look at a much broader picture of the world US politics are relatively benign and there isn't that much diffence between the two major parties nor between regions in the USA. Now, there are plenty of good reasons to want to move money overseas but ideological differences within the USA is not one of them.
by halfnine
Wed Dec 13, 2023 3:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Advice for a budding electrical engineer
Replies: 134
Views: 16916

Re: Advice for a budding electrical engineer

Full time engineering students that have no obligations outside of school (work, sports scholarships, etc.) should be able to graduate in 4 years. If they can't then engineering might not be the best fit for them. If it takes one 5 years to do what others can do in 4 years then it will likely take them 50 hours a week to do what other engineers can do in 40 hours.
by halfnine
Wed Dec 13, 2023 3:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold vs S&P 500? A lot of recommendations to invest in Gold lately
Replies: 154
Views: 11983

Re: Gold vs S&P 500? A lot of recommendations to invest in Gold lately

saver1 wrote: Tue Dec 12, 2023 7:30 pm Has anyone considered adding GLD ETF to their portfolio after this past year?
No.

I topped back up when gold dropped below 1700 last year. If anything I would be closer to selling it than buying more. If you are only looking at buying gold because of what has happened over the past year you are probably not a good candidate to own gold.