Search found 15579 matches

by larryswedroe
Sun Aug 12, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 137
Views: 14288

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

Today can get 5 year CD at about 3.5, and 5 year TIPS at .75, and expected inflation about 2.1 so about 65bp inflation insurance premium, which to me is on higher side, so I would choose, all else equal the CDs. At say 20-25bp I would choose TIPS, but should depend on your risk aversion to unexpecte...
by larryswedroe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Firechief, have anything valuable to contribute? What I showed was that the estimates we made were in fact providing useful information by any reasonable definition. The MCS based on the estimates then allowed us to ESTIMATE (not know) what the best of success were for various strategies of withdraw...
by larryswedroe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Firechief Sorry that isn't right. It's misusing the information ---as pointed out by others, a tool doesn't have to be perfect or even close to that to add value. And the evidence is very clear that the CAPE 10 or similar metrics has signficant value as has been pointed out, and as noted all profess...
by larryswedroe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Thought to consider So Homer thinks he is being conservative by not changing his AA when expected returns are high, just stick with his withdrawal rate. But that IMO is just an emotional answer and MIGHT be right, or might not be right. The best tool we have to determine if that is more conservative...
by larryswedroe
Fri Aug 10, 2018 8:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

To be helpful here Again, it's not that valuations don't matter to AA, they do matter a great deal because they impact expected returns and that in turn impacts your need to take risk. And it's the need to take risk that should drive your AA, along with ability and willingness to do so. So as valuat...
by larryswedroe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

will I have basically said that for 24 years. And it should have been perfectly clear from my posts as it was all about the NEED to take risk, not valuations. How Homer or anyone else could draw any other conclusion is beyond my ken. As it was very clear in my writing---have not gotten one question ...
by larryswedroe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

To help those for whom this seems difficult First, when young and starting out on your investment career, unless lucky to be born to wealth, your AA should be dominated by your ability and willingness to take risk. Valuations won't matter much if at all because you should be saving and investing as ...
by larryswedroe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

here's an example I thought of to show the absurdity of claim that why I have suggested is market timing---when it is 100% about need to take risk and nothing to do with timing Clearly it cannot be market timing if two different investors come to different conclusions, one raising equity allocation ...
by larryswedroe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 4:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

Nedsaid, I'll one thing, what I did in 1998 was clearly market timing, though I only did it personally, not what I recommended to clients who have very different perspectives and understandings and tolerances than I do. I kept my equity allocation the same, but got out of all but value due to valuat...
by larryswedroe
Thu Aug 09, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?
Replies: 207
Views: 11433

Re: Larry Swedroe: Valuations Too High?

To try to be helpful in clearing things up First, market timing is based on belief that market is either under or overvalued. And you can add value by changing your AA. My suggestsion have literally nothing to do with market timing. It is based on the facts that your NEED to take risk may have chang...
by larryswedroe
Tue Aug 07, 2018 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 27
Views: 2957

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

to be helpful here Real g of earnings should grow roughly in line with real gnp. That's 2-3% and pretty stable over long periods. So that's reasonable assumption IMO. The remainder is basically the change in speculative valuation, which is of course not predictable. The fact is that historically the...
by larryswedroe
Sun Aug 05, 2018 9:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens
Replies: 49
Views: 4721

Re: Larry Swedroe: Portfolio Pain Happens

To be helpful here, with a couple of key points We had recommended including REITS as separate asset class. Now we do not because the evidence shows that nothing really special about REITs, as their returns are well explained by exposure to common factors, basically size, value and term, and default...
by larryswedroe
Mon Jul 23, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable
Replies: 11
Views: 1941

Re: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable

Celia
The math is the same for either type of TA account, roth or traditional
by larryswedroe
Mon Jul 23, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable
Replies: 11
Views: 1941

Re: Journal article on stocks in retirement accounts / bonds in taxable

To be helpful here The seminal paper on this issue is Optimal Asset Location and Allocation with Taxable and Tax-Deferred Investing,” by Robert M. Dammon, Chester S. Spatt, Harold H. Zhang, which appeared in the June 2004 issue of the Journal of Finance. And they showed the math that leads to the op...
by larryswedroe
Sun Jul 22, 2018 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing
Replies: 8
Views: 804

Re: Larry Swedroe: Hedge Funds Still Trailing

the only year that the HFRX index outperformed the S&P 500 was 2008. Even worse, compared to a balanced portfolio of 60 percent S&P 500 Index/40 percent Barclay’s Government/Credit Bond Index it underperformed every single year. from 08-17
by larryswedroe
Sat Jul 14, 2018 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

Another case of making statements which are false One of the advantages of alternative investments (as well as residential real estate) is that they don't price every day Stone Ridge products, as all the alts we use, price daily with Ernst and Young as the auditor And fwiw, of course one should read...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jul 13, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

Sorry but just had to post this, once again showing how people post without actually knowing what they are talking about yet making very declarative statements. I just received an email today from Stone Ridge with a new paper entitled An Alternative to Bonds in a Modern Portfolio, and of course LEND...
by larryswedroe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

one other thought to add that again showing people make statements they have no clue about but speak as if they do, making declarative statements such as "That means P2P is left with loans that banks don't want to make, which are more likely (though not always) to be ones that involve more risk." th...
by larryswedroe
Wed Jul 11, 2018 7:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

I just couldn't resist, It's this kind of post that is why I left, Absolute nonsense and typical of that poster as I have pointed out to him many times. One of the main reasons I won't get into debates any longer. Though will occasionally post to correct misunderstandings. "So, when return is the su...
by larryswedroe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

golf caddy
Happen to answer any questions, just email me at lswedroe@bamadvisor.com
Also note that I only mentioned intermediate treasury as the typical fund used for fixed income. Obviously one should adjust for risks. With that said, vol of the two funds IMO is very similar, at least expected.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

golf caddy Two points for you First it makes no sense to include the servicing fee at all. As I pointed out if held in security form it would be excluded, just as Vanguard bond funds that include MBS don't show the servicing fee as fund expense. It's just dumb SEC rule and obviously inconsistent. An...
by larryswedroe
Tue Jul 10, 2018 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds
Replies: 50
Views: 3595

Re: Larry Swedroe: Diversifying Through Reinsurance And Marketplace Lending Interval Funds

To be helpful re Lendx and Expense ratio As I have pointed out many times the SEC unfortunately has very dumb rules about what should be in the ER. Example if you own a loan like LENDX does and someone performs the servicing the SEC requires you to show that as expense (instead of lower interest inc...
by larryswedroe
Sun Jun 24, 2018 8:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies
Replies: 71
Views: 7470

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Battle Of Passive Strategies

fyi,
YTD, 1 year and 3 year returns for BOSVX (my firm's choice of preferred fund), DFSVX, VISVX and S&P
9.0, 7.9, 5.1,4.0
22.8, 20.6, 16.2, 15.4
11.8, 9.1, 9.8, 11.4

And internationally SV has outperformed over 1, 3, 5, 10, 15 years (just not ytd)


Best wishes
Larry
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks
Replies: 6
Views: 570

Re: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks

Further clarification When you have a strategy for investors to consider the obvious question is how it performs (ed) relative to something else. A common comparison would be to a TSM or S&P 500 so that is what I did. That doesn't make the comparison alternative the appropriate benchmark and I would...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 22, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks
Replies: 6
Views: 570

Re: Larry Swedroe: How To Use Benchmarks

Just to clarify The purpose is to compare two entirely different strategies. One a TSM (market beta only) and a diversified by factor portfolio, which because it includes higher expected returning assets one can also hold more safe bonds, and due to correlation benefits (especially that high quality...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 15, 2018 8:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 125
Views: 16296

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

To help by showing how wrong the statement is Here's the claim In order for a risk premium to exist, there has to be a logical reason for most investment money to take the side of the bet that most likely will lose. Who is that large group of people that should invest in only growth stocks and avoid...
by larryswedroe
Thu Jun 14, 2018 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?
Replies: 55
Views: 2712

Re: Factor-based strategy is better (winer), OK. then who are the losers?

To help
Factors are long-short portfolios
Thus the long side has a premium and the short side a negative premium
Thus the "losers" are growth, large, negative momentum, low profitability, low quality, high liquidity, and high beta stocks, meaning they have below market returns historically
by larryswedroe
Wed Jun 13, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4246

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

To be helpful and address STLUTZ comment< one of the MANY risk based explanations for value is that a common trait of value companies is that they have more volatile earnings. On top of that they tend to also have more operating (more irreversible capital) and more financial leverage. Now combine th...
by larryswedroe
Tue Jun 12, 2018 7:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4246

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Taylor And you accept investopedia as the finance world's dictionary? No finance professor would even define it that way it's just media and marketing hype not a finance definition. Beta is defined in finance as exposure to a factor, which by definition cannot be smart or dumb, it just is. So you ca...
by larryswedroe
Mon Jun 11, 2018 8:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure
Replies: 60
Views: 4246

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Makes Factors Endure

Taylor Just to clarify, factor investing has NOTHING to do with "smart beta" which is almost 100% marketing hype as by definition beta is just exposure to a factor, how much loading a fund has on a factor. Thus, it cannot be smart or dumb, it just is. On other hand there is a bit of truth to the ter...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 08, 2018 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post
Replies: 67
Views: 10093

Re: The Psychology of Money - A Blog Post

thanks for posting, outstanding article and why many financial advisors say they don't manage money as much as they manage people

Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon Jun 04, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3435

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Just to clarify Stone Ridge interval funds limit 5% per quarter withdrawals. So investors need to have patient capital and willing and able to earn illiquidity premium. Since most investors don't have need for liquidity for 100% of their portfolio, for at least some portion a liquidity premium is a ...
by larryswedroe
Mon Jun 04, 2018 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3435

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Just to correct a few misconceptions First, there have been claims that Stone Ridge is a bunch of people who have only derivatives experience not "real" experience working with real reinsurers. Amazing to me that there are people on this site who often make claims as facts when they have no clue wha...
by larryswedroe
Sat Jun 02, 2018 7:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance
Replies: 41
Views: 3435

Re: Larry Swedroe: Two Articles On Reinsurance

Nedsaid In case had not noticed, for last 12 months the SV fund we use BOSVX has outperformed S&P 500 by about 5%, still trailing S&p 500 for last 5 but by about 1.3%. Not as much underperformance as people think, and internationally small value has far outperformed over any period want to look at. ...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 01, 2018 11:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?
Replies: 23
Views: 1441

Re: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?

Thought would share this from the blog post mentioned, it's summary of the outcomes The data shows the results investors could have earned using both passive strategies. The data covers the 20-year period from May 1998 through April 2018. It shows the annualized returns, the volatility, and the Shar...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 01, 2018 10:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?
Replies: 23
Views: 1441

Re: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?

just Osda Don't know when it will come out as we are talking to publisher's now and trying to decide whether to self publish or go the publisher route. If self publish would hope to get out by year end. With publisher would much more likely be first half of next year I would add that using Sharpe's ...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jun 01, 2018 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?
Replies: 23
Views: 1441

Re: Best comprehensive Larry Swedroe book?

BFRAME I am just putting the finishing touches on what will be not only my most comprehensive book, but IMO the most comprehensive book written on the subject "Your Complete Guide to a Safe and Secure Retirement." Here's the TOC Acknowledgments Preface Introduction-The Four Horesemen of Retirement P...
by larryswedroe
Fri May 11, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets
Replies: 22
Views: 2511

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets

Sorry, no on returning, just thought would be helpful to "straighten" things out
by larryswedroe
Fri May 11, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets
Replies: 22
Views: 2511

Re: Larry Swedroe: Thinking In Bets

Acceptable level of risk of "failure" No right answer. But one for each person. As pointed out by one poster, part of the answer is it depends on the implications of being wrong and if you have options that you can exercise if the left tail risk shows up. If you have acceptable options, like cutting...
by larryswedroe
Wed May 09, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 8090

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

Just to straighten people out, as I explained before, think it was to STLutz, the ER is NOT 4% or anything close to it. The SEC has very STUPID rules on what it forces funds to include in the expense ratio, which literally make no sense. The ER of the fund is if my memory serves about 1.94. Among fu...
by larryswedroe
Wed May 09, 2018 9:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA
Replies: 15
Views: 1326

Re: Rationale for placing high expected return funds in Roth rather than tIRA

Simple explanation is that you OWN 100% of your ROTH and only 1-your tax rate of your traditional IRA or other tax advantaged accounts. And as noted don't have to take withdrawals, allowing tax free growth to continue as long as possible.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Thu Apr 12, 2018 4:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 135
Views: 10470

Re: 2-year AA Munis at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

great example of what I have been telling people for 20 plus years, there are significant advantages of building individual portfolios. While we won't buy A rated bonds, we won't sell if downgraded to A and 3 years or less to maturity as credit risk as you note is negligible if GO or essential servi...
by larryswedroe
Wed Apr 04, 2018 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Make your retirement money last
Replies: 56
Views: 16490

Re: Make your retirement money last

as an fyi, just finished first draft of Your Complete Guide to a Safe and Secure Retirement, it will cover the broadest array of topics of any retirement book to date. Hopefully will get out around year end
Larry
by larryswedroe
Sun Apr 01, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 14935

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

To help out here, First, happy to always answer questions from readers You can email me at lswedroe@bamadvisor.com Second, sometimes, as noted Treasuries, especially longer ones, help, as in in 2008. Sometimes they make the problem worse, as mentioned. That is why you might want to consider adding a...
by larryswedroe
Sun Apr 01, 2018 8:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets
Replies: 22
Views: 3042

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Can’t Crack Inefficient Markets

thought would correct this misstatement by Packer Larry when he laid out his LP with a SCV portfolio in 2011, set up a testable hypothesis with various levels of bond & SCV versus bonds & S&P 500 & it failed pretty bad in real world forward looking terms. 2011 was when someone, Carl Richards, told r...
by larryswedroe
Sat Mar 24, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 22
Views: 3688

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

Anyone can see daily pricing on yahoo.com and you would see it at your custodian's website.
and if looking at prices daily you get drop on distribution dates
There is total transparency
Larry
by larryswedroe
Fri Mar 23, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: St Louis Bogleheads
Replies: 72
Views: 11170

Saint Louis Area diehards

[Post merged into here, see below. --admin LadyGeek]

fyi, I will be doing a talk at the STL Main Library downtown on 4/26 at 6
See you there
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon Mar 19, 2018 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities
Replies: 51
Views: 6624

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Count Out Commodities

Salty
FWIW, one way to judge the ability to hedge is correlations. Correlation of TIPS and inflation obviously highly correlated.
Monthly correlation of Bloomberg Commodity Total Return index to CPI was 0.243 while to one month bills was 0.128
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon Mar 05, 2018 7:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans
Replies: 130
Views: 14935

Re: Larry Swedroe’s New Book Available: Reducing Risk Of Black Swans

Was reading some of the comments and thought I would clarify a few things that might be helpful First, re factors. I think it's fair to say I'm highly skeptical of research. As evidence I submit that there are over 600 factors identified in the literature, and I've vetted them down, using strong cri...
by larryswedroe
Sat Feb 24, 2018 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 118
Views: 11165

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

Just thought I would respond very briefly to the comments about commodities and state IMO how completely misplace the comments are for whole variety of reasons, and I will write a blog showing why.