Search found 15666 matches

by larryswedroe
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018
Replies: 56
Views: 5975

Re: 700 Years of Falling Interest Rates, 1310-2018

Very simple, wealth increases, becomes less scarce and the cost to borrow it falls. Nothing more going on.
The same is true of the ERP, it declines as countries become wealthier, as capital is less scarce
Larry
by larryswedroe
Sat Apr 13, 2019 9:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Investment Strategy In An Uncertain World
Replies: 21
Views: 2711

Re: Larry Swedroe: Investment Strategy In An Uncertain World

to help out, by risk adjusted returns it doesn't mean say Sharpe ratio which assumes normal distributions and only looks at volatility, it means ALL FORMS of risks, such as skewness and kurtosis (which is priced) and illquidity (which is also priced). The SR is at least a reasonable measure to consi...
by larryswedroe
Fri Apr 12, 2019 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification across factors // recommended books & resources
Replies: 4
Views: 268

Re: Diversification across factors // recommended books & resources

FWIW, in addition to Your Complete Guide to Factor-Based Investing, here are what are IMO the best books on the subject ““Strategic Asset Allocation” by John Campbell and Luis Viscera “The Equity Risk Premium” by Bradford Cornell “Quantitative Value” by Wesley Gray and Tobias Carlisle “Quantitative ...
by larryswedroe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Socially Responsible [Investing]
Replies: 54
Views: 3073

Re: Socially Responsible

FYI, DFA has socially responsible funds that are factored based, use weighting schemes to UNDERWEIGHT companies with low ESG scores, not screen them out
Would imagine they are available in 401k plans and 529 plans without advisory fees, but don't know that
Larry
by larryswedroe
Tue Apr 09, 2019 9:42 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: St Louis Bogleheads
Replies: 121
Views: 19120

For St Louis area diehards

Just reminder that I'll be speaking, along with Kevin Grogan tonight 630-8 at the county library in Frontenac and Thursday 7-830 at the St. Charles county library 7-830. Talking about the new retirement book. Come up and say hello
Best wishes
Larry
by larryswedroe
Mon Apr 08, 2019 3:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Purchase of Re-insurance risk outside of re-insurance funds
Replies: 5
Views: 431

Re: Purchase of Re-insurance risk outside of re-insurance funds

To be helpful, re reinsurance stocks. Here are some issues that should be considered. They are why we have chosen to use a pure investment in reinsurance risk. Others may come to different conclusions. But the issues should be considered. In general, as packer noted, reinsurance stocks do have a sig...
by larryswedroe
Sat Apr 06, 2019 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5716

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

BTW, by published I meant on such sites as SSRN, soon as it hits shortly thereafter premiums have shrunk, on average. Investors become aware and try to capture premiums.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns
Replies: 77
Views: 5716

Re: Larry Swedroe: Expected Vs. Realized Returns

To be helpful the research shows that the premium shrinks as soon as published, not even until it hits a peer reviewed journal--the hedge funds and arbs start to act. Cash flows drive values so the premium shrinks. That does NOT mean market was inefficient, if it was risk based premium. No more than...
by larryswedroe
Fri Apr 05, 2019 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?
Replies: 37
Views: 2623

Re: Why have Stoneridge Reinsurance failed to have "equity like returns"?

Amazing what conclusions people draw, To provide some information First premiums have jumped dramatically where losses where high, as much as 35% in case of Japanese wind insurance, 20% or more for Cal fire insurance and in that range for SE hurricane insurance. Overall no loss return is no about 6%...
by larryswedroe
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"
Replies: 8
Views: 903

Re: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"

For those interested, over the last year or so this is one of the questions I am asked most. Just wrote a new piece on it and will try to post it Monday to ETF.com. So stay tuned
by larryswedroe
Fri Apr 05, 2019 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"
Replies: 8
Views: 903

Re: FT: "Has the yield curve predicted the next US downturn?"

For those interested, over the last year or so this is one of the questions I am asked most. Just wrote a new piece on it and will try to post it Monday to ETF.com. So stay tuned
by larryswedroe
Tue Apr 02, 2019 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

List of States We Won’t buy Muni bonds (% Funding Ratio end 2017, From S&P report 10/18) and adjusted net pension liabilities from Moody’s List is as of November, sometimes changes as states act or don't BTW-California really benefiting from stock market and hot IPO market (of course they never seem...
by larryswedroe
Mon Apr 01, 2019 5:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans
Replies: 46
Views: 4819

Re: Larry Swedroe: Performance Of State Pension Plans

Re munis, lots of states in good shape and if stick with AAA/AA and only GOs and essential service revenue bonds likely to have no problems, based on historical evidence.
Larry
by larryswedroe
Fri Mar 22, 2019 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Finance Books sequence
Replies: 14
Views: 885

Re: Finance Books sequence

FWIW, I've read dozens of investment (as opposed to behavioral or personal) finance books, You can find my list of the best here https://www.etf.com/sections/index-investor-corner/swedroe-best-investment-science-books And here is the list of best personal finance books https://www.etf.com/sections/i...
by larryswedroe
Mon Mar 18, 2019 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism
Replies: 28
Views: 3304

Re: Larry Swedroe: Capitalism Vs. Socialism

FWIW, actually the CAPE has been a pretty good, if not excellent predictor of GLOBAL returns --US was underestimated and international overestimated---random errors offsetting pretty much. I'll post on this shortly, showing our actual forecast of global real returns and the realized returns, if we a...
by larryswedroe
Mon Mar 11, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry's new book The Complete Guide to a Successful & Secure Retirement
Replies: 22
Views: 6204

Re: Larry's new book The Complete Guide to a Successful & Secure Retirement

Glad to hear readers finding the book helpful. And remember that I'm always happy to answer questions from readers. Just email me at lswedroe@bamadvisor.com Best wishes Larry PS_ and for those St. Louis area diehards I will be at the Frontenac Library on April 9 630-8 and the St. Charles library on ...
by larryswedroe
Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Review of Larry Swedroe’s New Book On Retirement
Replies: 2
Views: 820

Re: Good Review of Larry Swedroe’s New Book On Retirement

fyi, I recruited Carolyn Rosenblatt to help write that chapter. She is a registered nurse and elder care attorney, lots of great cases studies in the chapter based on her experience and some great checklists to utilize. I'd recommend reading her books on the subject though they are directed at advis...
by larryswedroe
Wed Feb 20, 2019 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years
Replies: 57
Views: 3917

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years

Just so you know, I don't set the titles and it wasn't the one I gave them,
They want provocative titles to catch attention
I have no say
by larryswedroe
Wed Feb 20, 2019 9:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus
Replies: 38
Views: 2997

Re: Portfolio visualizer says no rebalance bonus

To be helpful The "rebalancing bonus" referred to is called the diversification return. A rebalanced portfolio will have a higher return than the weighted average return of its components returns--the rebalancing bonus But that says nothing about the portfolios returns whether rebalanced or not. Whe...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 17, 2019 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?
Replies: 70
Views: 3437

Re: Why is higher deficit not leading to higher interest rates?

one explanation may be that people recognize that the high deficits will lead to higher taxes and they need to save more now so rates stay low Also very low rate of global growth, and rates depend on global supply of capital Also aging population shifting to bonds (around the globe) and that leads t...
by larryswedroe
Mon Feb 11, 2019 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors
Replies: 16
Views: 1516

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors

hdas You are mixing two things They do have TS momentum strategies and of course that is market timing. But they don't try to time factors in their other funds. So for example, in their multi-style funds (like value + momentum) funds they would not go less long value if the spreads between value and...
by larryswedroe
Mon Feb 11, 2019 10:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors
Replies: 16
Views: 1516

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Point To Timing Factors

To be helpful AQR does not attempt to factor time, and Asness himself has advised against it. While spreads between valuations determine the premium (as they get wider premiums tend to get larger) there is always a premium (it's just larger or smaller) and therefore market timing not likely to work ...
by larryswedroe
Sat Feb 09, 2019 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection
Replies: 13
Views: 998

Re: AQR/Asness - Looking for the Intuition Underlying Multi-Factor Stock Selection

Few thoughts to help here First, we get a very detailed, totally transparent, quarterly review--an attribution analysis, showing how each factor impacted the portfolio and how each asset class within the factor impacted the portfolio. Also get to see the correlations of factor returns, and even by c...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 03, 2019 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 516
Views: 35209

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Had one other thought I thought important to clarify as it appears to be a mistake in how people are thinking about the SWR The SWR should be thought of ONLY as the starting point. Like ALL financial plans (like the AA) when assumptions and inputs change the plan should be reviewed. Obviously even t...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 03, 2019 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 516
Views: 35209

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

My last comments First, why not 1% o 2%, reason simple because 3%+ gets you almost 100%. Again, MCS helpful. Second, foreward looking estimates are very different and historically DRAMATICALLY overestimated. So you might compare just as example a backward looking 17 backward with a 14 foreward (don'...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 03, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 516
Views: 35209

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

cherijoh First, using valuations and yields is not an assumption, it's math. And we do know that valuations and yields are the BEST (though not great) metrics for estimating future returns. There is consensus on that in the academic literature, with about equal abililty in current valuations and CAP...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 516
Views: 35209

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Marco The MCS we use does in fact consider correlations, in the book we show what the inputs/assumptions are horizon, initial investment, AA, withdrawals, retirement income, inflation, correlations of returns of the assets and the return distributions of the portfolio. I would just add that when man...
by larryswedroe
Sun Feb 03, 2019 10:17 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%
Replies: 516
Views: 35209

Re: Larry Swedroe: 3% is the new 4%

Just few thoughts to be helpful First, the lower number is based on combination of things. Higher equity valuations (now lower than when wrote the book as someone noted, especially outside US) and much lower bond yields. Then add on not only longer life expectancies but life expectancies are persist...
by larryswedroe
Fri Jan 18, 2019 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon
Replies: 26
Views: 4429

Re: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon

Broken Man Glad enjoying. Here's a piece that appeared in my local STL paper today on the book and making the same point you made. https://www.stltoday.com/business/columns/david-nicklaus/local-author-says-retirees-need-a-life-plan-not-just/article_c0a8952f-e027-5825-b953-3c2d47533301.html?utm_mediu...
by larryswedroe
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tributes to Jack Bogle
Replies: 158
Views: 15918

ode to St. Jack

https://www.etf.com/sections/index-inve ... rner/bogle

BTW, I love Rick's idea to call it the Bogle rule
Best wishes
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon
Replies: 26
Views: 4429

Canadian version

BTW, just worked out agreement with my friends at PWL Capital, Cameron Passmore and Ben Felix, for them to adapt the book in a Canadian version, just as they did with a prior book.
Best wishes
Larry
by larryswedroe
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon
Replies: 26
Views: 4429

Re: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon

For those interested, here's link to interview on the book with Motley Fool's Bob Brokamp https://www.fool.com/podcasts/answers/2019-01-15-marshaling-all-your-resources-for/ And here's write up from Senior Financial Advisor https://www.seniorfinanceadvisor.com/news/successful-and-secure-retirement-r...
by larryswedroe
Sat Jan 12, 2019 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon
Replies: 26
Views: 4429

Re: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon

To respond to marcopolo's comment The only guide to right financial plan was written for those in the accumulation phase. This book is for those in the retirement planning phase, focused on all the issues one has to address, including planning a life in retirement, potential for cognitive decline, m...
by larryswedroe
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book
Replies: 8
Views: 1392

Re: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book

Foreward by Wade Pfau Planning for life post-retirement is complicated because it is a completely different life experience from what comes before. Prior to retirement, we work and save and invest with the intention of accumulating a nest-egg to support us through our retirement years. Then, once we...
by larryswedroe
Sun Dec 23, 2018 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book
Replies: 8
Views: 1392

Re: Interview Of Larry Swedroe Centered On His New Retirement Book

For those interested here's the Contents and what Boglehead Mel Lindauer had to say “What a great resource! Covers all the bases. In my opinion, it’s Larry’s magnus opus. Read it and reap.” — Mel Lindauer, President of The John C. Bogle Center for Financial Literacy, and co-author of The Bogleheads’...
by larryswedroe
Thu Oct 18, 2018 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon
Replies: 26
Views: 4429

Re: Larry Swedroe’s Your Complete Guide To A Successful And Secure Retirement Coming Soon

Kindle will be ready shortly as well.
Was very pleased to get Wade Pfau to write the forward
Larry
by larryswedroe
Thu Oct 18, 2018 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comments to explain a few things Homer The problem is that you fail to recognize what I have pointed out repeatedly in many discussions over the years about even DFA funds, you cannot extrapolate from a prospectus because it is written by lawyers to preclude lawsuits and often includes many ...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 5:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Taylor Thanks, it wasn't diredt but it was about diversification which you did call the something of scoundrels, implying it. Again thanks for the apology What amazes me still is that my motives are questioned when I've tireless answered thousands of questions and PMs and gotten so many thank yous f...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Nedsaid, Pretty simple, as I said if Homer had simple said something like I read in the prospectuses the following, does this mean... Or I believe that it might be the case that.... I would never have a problem. But Homer, and others, make these declarative statements as if they were facts when they...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

My last comment, as I have pointed out investors need to understand that prospectuses are written by lawyers to avoid lawsuits so statements are always the broadest and most conservative that they can be and very often do not reflect the reality. This is a good example If you knew what you were talk...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Homer All I would say is you should avoid making statements of fact that you have literally no clue what you are talking about, And I don't have time to explain why virtually everything you say is so often wrong. And it's one of reasons I don't post. Old saying, it's not what a man doesn't know that...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Packer The difference is that the reinsurance premium, expected returns, is about equity return AFTER fees. Not in liquid CAT bonds, but in illiquid quota shares. Re safe bonds as tail risk protection, that comes at cost of giving up the ERP and also if intermediate taking on inflation risk. SRRIX h...
by larryswedroe
Wed Oct 17, 2018 9:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Few thoughts to be helpful First, re consumer loans during 2008, which was highest UE in post Depression era, saw losses about double from defaults. So with leverage we estimate fund would have lost about 6-7% or so. Have to remember that even at 10% employment since these are prime only loans they ...
by larryswedroe
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 10290

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

Taylor We recommend Bridgeway, DFA, AQR, Stone Ridge Funds and now Pioneer as another option for reinsurance. We recommend funds we believe add value, and have no incentive to recommend anything else, only one we are paid by, as are all RIAs is the client. Also note that while I'm here Re correlatio...
by larryswedroe
Thu Oct 04, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 8559

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

few thoughts to get facts right First, to say I don't favor simplicity is simply an absurd statement. It's as silly as saying I favor high cost funds!!! But I don't favor simplicity (or lowest expense) at the expense of more efficient portfolios that significantly reduce dispersion of returns (or ad...
by larryswedroe
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 2164

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

get the facts right, value in US has been slightly negative over last 10 years or so, but is has been positive internationally by greater amount over the same period. And nothing unusual as value has underperformed about 14% of 10 year periods if memory serves. so taking both int'l and domestic ther...
by larryswedroe
Sun Sep 16, 2018 8:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations
Replies: 53
Views: 6419

Re: Larry Swedroe: Disrupted Expectations

grok Just to point out that the data applies to CS momentum and only in stocks--TS MOM would have shown strong positive returns in both 08 and 09 I would think a) long only momentum does not experience the type of crash you saw in 2008, and of course long only mutual funds, using momentum screens wo...
by larryswedroe
Sat Sep 15, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4991

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Jalbert, yes it is more diversified by factors, but it also has higher expected returns allowing you to lower your market beta exposure and increase term exposure as well. So you have more size, more value and more term and less beta, creating a more diversified, more of a risk parity strategy, whic...
by larryswedroe
Sat Sep 15, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4991

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Just question, so owning a Vanguard small value index fund is not simple? Rhetorical
by larryswedroe
Sat Sep 15, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing
Replies: 46
Views: 4991

Re: Larry Swedroe: Simple Factor Investing

Jalbert I agree with your logic, but it hasn't happened despite many decades of this knowledge out there, and IMO it's behavioral issues that prevent it from ever happening, things like tracking error. Packer 64-17 annual correlation of size to beta is 0.26 and value to beta is -.25 -call it what yo...