Search found 975 matches

by magneto
Fri Jan 11, 2019 11:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?
Replies: 63
Views: 3560

Re: What are the disadvantages of taking all risk on equity side?

One risk that Wm Bernstein talks about in later editions of The Four Pillars, is a repeat of 2008/9 where investors would have needed to take a 'haircut', on those supposedly defensive but not quite so riskless assets, to release monies for Stock purchases to rebalance at the then advantageous prices.
by magneto
Tue Jan 08, 2019 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CAPE to switch between stocks and bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 477

Re: Using CAPE to switch between stocks and bonds

If one is wary of market timing one could decide on a neutral allocation of say 60/40 stocks/bonds and vary that mix between 40/60 and 80/20 depending on the level of CAPE. I wonder if there is a valuation metric for Treasury bonds that has worked. There is a case to be made for Valuation Driven (V...
by magneto
Mon Jan 07, 2019 4:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK investor advice - please help!
Replies: 17
Views: 568

Re: UK investor advice - please help!

1. Are there any good resources that explain gilts and how they work? 2. I know that they're tied to inflation, 3. but I literally know nothing else and don't want to put my money into something I don't understand! I then need to work out which ETF to pick once I understand what the underlying conc...
by magneto
Sun Jan 06, 2019 2:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK investor advice - please help!
Replies: 17
Views: 568

Re: UK investor advice - please help!

1. Both portfolios currently are a mixture of individual stock picks and investment trusts (a la The John Baron Portfolios). 2. and boy do I wish I'd have discovered this website 5 years ago! 3. With the money I want to reserve for a house deposit or anything near term (1-5 years), should that be l...
by magneto
Wed Jan 02, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably
Replies: 88
Views: 7707

Re: Larry Swedroe: investing Uncomfortably

"(It’s uncertainty that leads one to conclude the prudent strategy is to diversify across as many factors as we can identify that meet all the criteria established.)" Seems we might be back to total market? Although rebalancing to advantage, as with any segmented portfolio, could arise? This current...
by magneto
Wed Jan 02, 2019 5:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: dealing with capital loss on bond fund/etf
Replies: 8
Views: 507

Re: dealing with capital loss on bond fund/etf

1. I am hesitant in buying a bond fund/etf due to the inverse relationship between yield and price. I am not happy with a capital loss. Please shed some light. 2. As I am in the UK and Government bond yields are paltry. Would a corporate bond fund be better? 1. You are prudent to be cautious. As me...
by magneto
Tue Jan 01, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Investor
Replies: 16
Views: 1379

Re: The Intelligent Investor

I'm rereading The Intelligent Investor by Benjamin Graham and wondered if there was any room within the Boglehead's Philosophy for an "enterprising" investor. Graham defines the enterprising investor by these activities: 1. Buying in low markets and selling in high markets 2. Buying carefully chose...
by magneto
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?
Replies: 39
Views: 5801

Re: QE, massive crash, Dow 3000?

1. I read a short post suggesting that QE set up an artificial floor to the stock market at Dow 6000. The author suggests that a crash could send the market below that level, for ex to Dow 3000 (=87% decline from current level. 2. Most of what I read said that QE was helpful and the unwinding appea...
by magneto
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone overbalancing?
Replies: 39
Views: 2822

Re: Anyone overbalancing?

Yes.
Steadily lifitng Stocks Target here.
Better value, seems worth buying into.
But have no opinion on future market direction.
by magneto
Mon Dec 24, 2018 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Asset allocation

If still looking for a way forward (like many of us), and open to diverse views, then the following UK forum might be of interest.

https://moneyforums.citywire.co.uk/
by magneto
Mon Dec 24, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA and market [Asset Allocation - are you rebalancing?]
Replies: 39
Views: 2288

Re: AA and market

We used to be at 70% equity and after retirement dropped it to 60%. Lately the equity position is hovering at 54%. No matter what new money I invest it is not budging because of the loss of value. Are you re-balancing your AA in this turbulent market or just let it ride? The essential is to be movi...
by magneto
Mon Dec 24, 2018 4:34 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Asset allocation

UK Gov't Bonds (Gilts) are considered by some fully priced since demand seems to have outstripped supply, due to such factors as institutional obligations to match their forward liabilities. The retail investor is under no such obligation and may look elsewhere for defensives, or use just plain old...
by magneto
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 1389

Re: Asset allocation

UK Gov't Bonds (Gilts) are considered by some fully priced since demand seems to have outstripped supply, due to such factors as institutional obligations to match their forward liabilities. The retail investor is under no such obligation and may look elsewhere for defensives, or use just plain old ...
by magneto
Sun Dec 23, 2018 10:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Begin loading the “Elephant Gun”?
Replies: 26
Views: 5128

Re: Begin loading the “Elephant Gun”?

1. I am wondering if its time to raise some cash from other assets like real estate to tilt more into equities and bonds. 2. Say one could sell off some real estate and raise a boat load of cash, at what point would those with rental, vacay or 2nd homes consider unloading them to create something o...
by magneto
Fri Dec 21, 2018 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???
Replies: 129
Views: 13130

Re: Is anyone's portfolio not tanking???

My total net worth is down around 2% from its highs. My stock/bond is 70/30, but I'm also heavily invested in real estate, and have been contributing throughout the year. Even with the downturn, my total net worth continues to trend up on a year-over-year basis. I'm actually sleeping better at nigh...
by magneto
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Invested a lump sum a few weeks ago..
Replies: 31
Views: 2740

Re: Invested a lump sum a few weeks ago..

I have read here a few times in the past to simply invest the lump sum whenever you can versus spreading it out over time. I dumped it in (mid 5-figures) basically the day before the market started crashing a few weeks ago. Not a great feeling but I’m assuming it will recover over time. Curious if ...
by magneto
Tue Dec 18, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Retiree Investment Strategy
Replies: 21
Views: 2308

Re: New Retiree Investment Stratedgy

PaulF wrote:
Wed Dec 12, 2018 11:49 am
magneto wrote:
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:51 pm
Chapter 18 of Frank Armstrong's 'The Informed Investor', takes a look at the retirement issue.
Most worthless financial book I have ever seen. Nothing specific. I couldn't return it to the library fast enough.
Seemingly an investor of discernment !!!
by magneto
Sun Dec 16, 2018 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year
Replies: 153
Views: 19422

Re: I made a mistake by not selling when the market was high this year

Investors spend a lot of effort studying what and when to buy, but learning to sell is by far the more difficult art. The OP raises a good point, albeit a little late !!! One or two, maybe more, posters bring up the subject of 'Market Timing', others talk around Dynamic Asset Allocation (Value Inves...
by magneto
Thu Dec 13, 2018 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market
Replies: 61
Views: 6088

Re: Our mentor [Jack Bogle] advises to "buy bonds" for protection in current market

Good advice for anyone unwittingly heavy on Stocks. But the timing is curious as the ragged sideways trend from about Jan, has left Stocks looking a little less richly priced. This for us has led to some reduction in defensives incl Bonds, with cautious buying of Stocks. But probably early days? Far...
by magneto
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain
Replies: 27
Views: 1374

Re: dry eyes- optimal laptop screen resolution to reduce eye strain

There was a thread about the more modern laptops using high frequency on/off to adjust the apparent brightness (pulse width modulation), rather than a 'dimmer'. The high frequency can be disturbing to some viewers and somewhere there is a website dedicated to the issue.
Otherwise good info above.
by magneto
Tue Dec 11, 2018 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: New Retiree Investment Strategy
Replies: 21
Views: 2308

Re: New Retiree Investment Stratedgy

To a limited extent your thinking rings true. Everything really does change in retirement. Total Return may be the ultimate measure, but as oft pointed out, while dividends generally come in on a regular calendar basis, capital gains do not. Total return if followed blindly without sufficient defens...
by magneto
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:06 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Allocation during retirement and Safe Withdrawal Rates
Replies: 22
Views: 4319

Re: Asset Allocation during retirement and Safe Withdrawal Rates

Frank Armstrong covers this subject quite well in chapter 18 of 'The Informed Investor'. There is nothing special or sacred about the Constant Ratio (CR). Even CR investors hold a greater quantity of Stock shares when prices are low, while a lesser quantity of Stock shares when prices are high. The ...
by magneto
Tue Nov 27, 2018 9:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How to ratchet up equity allocation?
Replies: 22
Views: 1348

Re: How to ratchet up equity allocation?

Without going in to the merits or otherwise of upping the Risk/Stocks exposure, maybe take time to reach any new target. A few months or years; moving at a set percentage of deviation from target per month? The market may even come to meet you !!! As per thinking, adjustments do not have to be sudde...
by magneto
Tue Nov 20, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?
Replies: 52
Views: 3576

Re: What's in your Investor Policy Statement about Bear Markets?

Assuming Bear Market means ever better Stock valuations (cheaper); then for Dynamic Asset Allocator using a Variable Ratio in preference to a Constant Ratio, the desired target percentage for Stocks will be increasing. Investment Plan cautions proportionate care to be exercised as regards the rate o...
by magneto
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"
Replies: 60
Views: 14402

Re: "Yes, You Can Time the Market!"

As someone who looks at price, or more correctly $ per lb when shopping; found the book unsurprising and logical. When Cabbages are expensive buy Brussel Sprouts. The problem with Variable Ratio Value Investing or Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAA) arises when enthusiastically embraced by novices starti...
by magneto
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Approaching retirement
Replies: 7
Views: 1013

Re: Approaching retirement

Frank Armstrong 'The Informed Investor', chapter eighteen, could be starting point for thought processes.
by magneto
Sat Nov 17, 2018 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: UK total beginner book
Replies: 8
Views: 574

Re: UK total beginner book

Most good investment books are of US origin.
One UK book that might assist is :-
'Smarter Investing' by Tim Hale.
The title is misleading which might cause concern to a passive investor; but in fact contents are essentially passive.
by magneto
Thu Nov 08, 2018 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??
Replies: 40
Views: 4740

Re: Would you still jump if you were ready, then the market dropped 50%??

Lower prices should mostly be a cause for celebration ?
Would begin to re-allocate from defensives (Bonds/Cash/Alts) to risk (Stocks) as a gentle continuing process over months or years. No need to hurry.
And yes, some of our best investments were made is such times.
by magneto
Fri Aug 10, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?
Replies: 64
Views: 8155

Re: Would buy and hold work if Japan's lost decade happens?

Often observed that when buying we generally take note of price.
Why should Stocks be any different.
Prices at the Japan peak had careful investors running for the hills albeit probably early.
by magneto
Wed Aug 08, 2018 8:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Better investments than the stock market?
Replies: 24
Views: 3963

Re: Better investments than the stock market?

To reach a holistic view on Stocks try all the recommended BH books and articles, and then read :- 'Yes, You Can Time the Market' by Stein and De Muth published 2003 One takeaway might be that the different Asset Classes dance to their own valuation rhythms, so from time to time opportunities arise ...
by magneto
Wed Aug 01, 2018 4:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent windfall and the current stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1208

Re: Recent windfall and the current stock market

I'm curious about your opinion on how you would invest a windfall($25k) given today's stock market conditions. Would you put it to work in the market given today's valuations, or would you place it in an alternative investment? Asset Allocation can be broken down into three questions :- 1. The desi...
by magneto
Sun Jul 15, 2018 9:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rental Property - Continue to Rent or Sell
Replies: 20
Views: 1804

Re: Rental Property - Continue to Rent or Sell

Since it's not nearby, perhaps it's time to sell, and invest that money elsewhere? +1 Whether invest the proceeds in to another direct residential property, or other, depends to a degree on the rest of the portfolio. Direct Residential Real Estate useful diversifier with a sufficiently large portfo...
by magneto
Sat Jul 14, 2018 9:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality
Replies: 26
Views: 2918

Re: Larry Swedroe: Know Your Investor Personality

I guess we all have to give up and hire an FA. Does anyone know of a FA who doesn't have his/her own biases? Yes seemingly each investor type is riddled with defects, and needs the strong guidance of an FA. QUOTE "Conservative Investors Their risk tolerance is low and they tend to make emotional er...
by magneto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?
Replies: 27
Views: 2333

Re: Real Estate Investment: Yay or Nay?

Suggest may depend on :-
1. What the rest of the porfolio looks like (direct RE can be a useful income producing diversifier).
2. Whether prepared to be patient, bearing in mind QE, etc, has pushed up all Asset Class pricing, and wait for better times?
by magneto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 5:05 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Shifting from Intermediate to Short-term Bonds
Replies: 11
Views: 1873

Re: Shifting from Intermediate to Short-term Bonds

Depends on the purpose of the Bonds.
If purely defensive, then for Bonds, ST IG is the logical place to be at all times.
If speculative, then LT are of interest, but remember that -ve correlation with Stocks is not a given.
IT IG neither fish nor fowl ? Leads some investors to 'Barbell'.
by magneto
Wed Jul 11, 2018 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz
Replies: 85
Views: 7382

Re: Bucket Portfolio article by Christine Benz

Some thoughts from Frank Armstrong :- https://investorsolutions.com/knowledge-center/retirement-articles/constructing-an-effective-retirement-portfolio/ Investors who prefer a permanent Constant Ratio, may find some dificulty with :- "A far superior alternative strategy would treat the equity and bo...
by magneto
Sun Jul 08, 2018 10:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 6142

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

When we're in a stock bull market such as we currently are, some investors loose site of the consequences of a bear market on a stock heavy, indexed portfolio that by its very nature takes no steps to mitigate losses during bear markets. Beyond Asset Allocation; there is the less discussed issue as...
by magneto
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund
Replies: 135
Views: 9626

Re: "homemade dividends" from Total Stock Market fund

rgs92 wrote:
Thu Jun 28, 2018 12:27 pm
The thought that selling stocks when needed "and now the market is down" is market timing and this should be avoided. Just sell what you need regardless of where the market is. Sell in proportion to your entire asset allocation.
Price matters ???
by magneto
Mon Jun 25, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does technical data matter?
Replies: 16
Views: 889

Re: Does technical data matter?

Seems to matter occasionally, to measure investor's enthusiasm or other, esp Momentum now duly glorified as a 'Factor'. From bitter experience :- Value = OK'ish Value + Momentum = Better The foolishness creeps in using TA without any reference to Fundamentals. But with Gold, Commodities, etc, there ...
by magneto
Sat Jun 16, 2018 5:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation
Replies: 20
Views: 2425

Re: How to calculate Real Estate in your Asset Allocation

For those who invest in real estate, how do you calculate it and integrate it with a bogleheads style asset allocation? Do you just count the cumulative amount of cash invested? Or do you approximate current real estate value of principle paid? I don't count it in my AA at all, I count it as a sepa...
by magneto
Sun Jun 10, 2018 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do you change your AA in discrete chunks or gradually?
Replies: 20
Views: 1576

Re: Do you change your AA in discrete chunks or gradually?

Poster in a much older thread, suggested moving 10% of deviation from target per month. Three potential advantages seem to be :- + Investor psychological balance + Momentum harvesting + Investment System stability Purists might object target never reached. But markets have a habit of coming to meet ...
by magneto
Thu Jun 07, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rising Interest Rate Strategy
Replies: 35
Views: 4880

Re: Rising Interest Rate Strategy

Agree with above comments about holding shorter duration Bonds and/or Cash. Presently hesitating about moving to longer duration Treasuries total, then hesitating again, as Vanguard fund in question UK:VUTY, seems to have lost 4.4% in US$, in just over 6 months. Cash or short duration in comparison ...
by magneto
Sat Jun 02, 2018 4:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?
Replies: 62
Views: 5338

Re: Any reasons to not put money down for a Tesla Model 3?

With any car purchase, prefer to buy towards the end of a production run, rather than towards the beginning.
More info then available.
Not trendy though 8-)
by magneto
Fri Jun 01, 2018 4:29 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??
Replies: 22
Views: 2394

Re: Two fund portfolio- no bonds??

I am 30, have maxed out all retirement accounts and currently have a two fund portfolio comprising of the total stock market us(75%) and total stock market international. After reading the 3 fund portfolio, it sounds like I should also be investing in bonds? The reason I ask, is I am young and in t...
by magneto
Mon May 28, 2018 4:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: only iShares ETF's, risks?
Replies: 11
Views: 2147

Re: only iShares ETF's, risks?

After analyzing (costs, taxes, diversification, ...) all kind of ETF's I always end up with iShare ETF's. So I bought a mix of a couple of tens of Thousands euro in CSX5, CSPX, IWDA, EMIM. Is it dangerous to only invest in one provider -> iShares? Or is that risk negligible. As in other areas of li...
by magneto
Sun May 06, 2018 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?
Replies: 19
Views: 1780

Re: Graham's Formula -- Still Applicable, Right?

Too rigid historic benchmarks do not allow for the tendency of the valuation median anchors to drag this way and that from decade to decade. Take another look at :- http://www.multpl.com/ How do things seem casting an eye back over the most recent 10 to 20 years? Somewhat high maybe? - But need the ...
by magneto
Thu May 03, 2018 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using P/E as a Metric
Replies: 13
Views: 1240

Re: Using P/E as a Metric

On a company level as noted, PE on its' own is pretty meaningless. Of more use :- 1. PE to Growth (PEG Ratio) already mentioned. 2. PE v its' historic range can indicate fluctuations in value 3. Or again PEG ratio v its' historic range. Often observed that the E (Earnings) are very much what account...
by magneto
Wed May 02, 2018 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: UK Portfolio confusion
Replies: 22
Views: 1397

Re: UK Portfolio confusion

Prefer also to allocate amongst regions directly, seeking rebalancing opportunities. But after twelve months this will be a 100% Stocks (Risk) portfolio? No 'defensives' (Bonds/Real Estate/Renewables//Infrastructure/Cash/Etc) to act as a counter-balance. So not a 'balanced portfolio'? Will calm prev...
by magneto
Sat Apr 21, 2018 9:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?
Replies: 7
Views: 1211

Re: Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018?

Lump sum vs Dollar-cost average in 2018? Which one are you guys doing ........ and investing in general? Before I always lump sumed at the beginning of each year but this year due to drop I am wondering if I should dollar-cost average. What do you guys think? What are you guys doing? 'Time diversif...
by magneto
Fri Apr 20, 2018 5:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bonner: what's your take?
Replies: 38
Views: 4277

Re: Bill Bonner: what's your take?

Bill Bonner views are usually well-informed and can interest. But as regards the future he may be incorrect, correct, or only partially correct. We have to admit that we simply don't know. :annoyed One idea to such an investment 'timing' predicament is to 'time diversify', using DCA, Value Averaging...