Search found 48 matches

by SirHorace
Wed Feb 04, 2015 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "how to measure risk?"
Replies: 35
Views: 2748

Re: "how to measure risk?"

I’m with nisiprius on this issue. I have been playing around with trying to develop a visual metric for evaluating risk. A preliminary example is below. I have calculated the drawdown characteristics of the 45 Fidelity sector funds (enumerated below). Seven of the funds showed drawdowns in excess of...
by SirHorace
Wed Feb 04, 2015 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard survey: what should they do differently?
Replies: 72
Views: 6434

Re: Vanguard survey: what should they do differently?

Implement the ability to download all fund data (including dividends) for all funds for all time in CSV format for those of us who like to play with data in Excel (or other analytical tools). As best as I can figure out this capability does not currently exist or the time frames are limited or the n...
by SirHorace
Fri Jul 19, 2013 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million
Replies: 65
Views: 10978

Re: How and when did you do it - to get to 1 Million

1) Marry a frugal woman
2) Live below your means
3) Anytime you get an increase in your income or a unexpected windfall automatically allocate 25% (or more if possible) of the increase to your investments
4) Plus everything else that has been mentioned !!!
by SirHorace
Mon Jun 10, 2013 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1876
Views: 1159190

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

UMFONDI wrote: (Chart of Wellesley vs. Vanguard LifeStrategy) Looks impressive but I believe there is a problem with data registration in your chart. I believe the proper comparison would be shown by the chart below. I assume the chart is of total return. http://img191.imageshack.us/img191/292/vwinx...
by SirHorace
Mon Jun 10, 2013 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 1876
Views: 1159190

Re: The Three Fund Portfolio

Question: I have been following this thread with the intent of implementing the 3-fund portfolio for at least a part of my holdings. But when I plotted the 3-fund portfolio components against Wellesley (my major holding) I was surprised and confused. From the chart below, it would appear that Welles...
by SirHorace
Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:02 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Side jobs or hobbies that make you money
Replies: 127
Views: 23827

Re: Side jobs or hobbies that make you money

The best idea is to find an activity that makes money while you sleep . Avoid trading your labor for dollars on a one-to-one basis. If you have the skills, create a useful web page and sell advertising such as at the web site below: [link removed by admin LadyGeek] Note the innocuous add panel in th...
by SirHorace
Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does it pay to delay Social Security?
Replies: 98
Views: 7672

Re: When does it pay to delay Social Security?

Archbish99 wrote: In what way does delaying SS change your expenses in this scenario? Sounds like the expenses for your wife's healthcare are the same regardless of when SS starts. The expenses do not change. The point I was making is that if a couple were “cash-strapped” (not my case) they could e...
by SirHorace
Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When does it pay to delay Social Security?
Replies: 98
Views: 7672

Re: When does it pay to delay Social Security?

Another factor to consider is the possible impact of delayed SS on health insurance. I am retired on Medicare for which I pay approximately $100/mo with a Medicare supplement through my company for which I pay approximately $300/mo ($4800/yr total). My wife, who will be 65 in November, is not eligib...
by SirHorace
Wed Jul 25, 2012 5:08 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: New Post Notification
Replies: 2
Views: 848

New Post Notification

How do I indicate I want to be notified when a new post is added to a topic ???
by SirHorace
Wed Jul 25, 2012 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Optimal Retirement Calculator improved by user feedback
Replies: 13
Views: 2885

Re: Optimal Retirement Calculator improved by user feedback

I used to use ORP but I no longer trust it. The main issue I have with it is that the owner (James Welch) changed the program to report some sort of inflated value for the desired estate value of the portfolio. I used to be able to specify a desired estate value and the program would report that val...
by SirHorace
Wed Apr 25, 2012 10:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Poll] My philosophy on SPIAs
Replies: 65
Views: 4290

Re: [Poll] My philosophy on SPIAs

What is a SPIA ???

SirHorace
by SirHorace
Sat Nov 26, 2011 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard PRPFX Tracking Portfolio II
Replies: 4
Views: 972

Re: Vanguard PRPFX Tracking Portfolio II


nisiprius said

If it's not too much to ask for more: I am very curious about the one that tracked a perfectly steady 8% growth--the one you called "the 8% solution."


I shall start working on it shortly.

Sir Horace
by SirHorace
Sat Nov 26, 2011 6:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard PRPFX Tracking Portfolio II
Replies: 4
Views: 972

Vanguard PRPFX Tracking Portfolio II

My Dear Friends, In an August 2007 submission ( Vanguard Tracking Portfolio I ) I attempted to find an all-Vanguard portfolio that would track the performance of PRPFX (Permanent Portfolio) to within an acceptable accuracy. In this submission, I have extended the graph of the original submission wi...
by SirHorace
Wed Nov 03, 2010 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Calculators?
Replies: 8
Views: 4127

by SirHorace
Thu Aug 05, 2010 9:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quantitative mutual funds. Then and now.
Replies: 3
Views: 1072

Quantitative methods work great when the underlying data is statistically stationary. Unfortunately, economic time series do not meet that criteria (certainly not in the long run). No mathematics can predict the outcome of human endeavors and to attempt to do so is folly.

SirHorace
by SirHorace
Mon Mar 29, 2010 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advisory Service
Replies: 68
Views: 55249

70 year old retiree (3+ years) I do some options trading with Fidelity and in talking with some of the local personnel (mid 2009) they asked me if they could make up a proposal to transfer my portfolio (low seven figures) from VG to them. I never had the intention of transferring and did not initiat...
by SirHorace
Wed Mar 24, 2010 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best investing books - What are your recommendations?
Replies: 23
Views: 3942

I basically like the concepts outlined in: Asset Dedication: How to Grow Wealthy with the Next Generation of Asset Allocation, By S. J. Huxley, J. B. Burns (Hardcover, 1995) The basic premise seems to be: >Bond ladders for required income >Invest the remaining in a 100% equity index fund (S&P500...
by SirHorace
Sat Feb 27, 2010 10:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can a family of 3 live on 1.2M and never touch principal?
Replies: 43
Views: 11104

I think the "peace of mind" factor outweighs any investment advantage of owning a mortgage. We paid off our mortgage about 15 years ago and have never regretted it. During the several times when the job market looked bleak I was able to sleep well knowing that the economy would really have...
by SirHorace
Thu Feb 18, 2010 11:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Have you ever tracked your spending for a year?
Replies: 105
Views: 15907

When I retired three years ago I wanted to know exactly how much we were spending (for retirement planning and tracking purposes). I was not concerned for what the money was spent, only how much was spent. So what I did was to make up an Excel spreadsheet with a separate sheet for each month, a summ...
by SirHorace
Wed Feb 03, 2010 8:33 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: deleted from test post thread
Replies: 54
Views: 4351

Image
by SirHorace
Wed Apr 01, 2009 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TurboTax vs TaxAct: A First-Timer's Very Quick Review
Replies: 18
Views: 5065

Last year I used both TurboTax (TT) and TaxCut but found TurboTax the easiest to use (not that it is perfect - many of the complaints listed above apply). One problem I had (with VG?) is that whereas when I downloaded Fidelity brokerage options data it appeared in the correct TT locations and format...
by SirHorace
Mon Mar 09, 2009 2:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: The 1 Book for Asset Allocation
Replies: 25
Views: 5233

I basically like the concepts outlined in: Asset Dedication: How to Grow Wealthy with the Next Generation of Asset Allocation (Hardcover, 1995) S. J. Huxley, J. B. Burns The basic premise seems to be: >Bond ladders for required income >Invest the remaining in a 100% equity index fund (S&P500) By...
by SirHorace
Mon Feb 02, 2009 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Anyone MAKE money last year?
Replies: 53
Views: 8030

John wrote: I tried to find the 20% loss reference you mentioned - maybe you were looking at the bar graph on the MSN page that showed a 20% average decline for the category "conservative allocation funds"? It shows a positive result for the specific fund HSTRX. Well, you are totally corr...
by SirHorace
Mon Feb 02, 2009 6:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did Anyone MAKE money last year?
Replies: 53
Views: 8030

What Am I Missing ???

I must be missing something. Quasimodo says that Hussman Strategic Total Return (HSTRX) made money last year (2008?) but when I look at the HSTRX web site I see that HSTRX shows a 20% decline in 2008. Can someone please explain??? Quasimodo: I wasn't smart enough to buy it last year, but Hussman Str...
by SirHorace
Fri Nov 07, 2008 10:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you had to recommend just one good book...
Replies: 25
Views: 5945

I basically like the concepts outlined in: Asset Dedication: How to Grow Wealthy with the Next Generation of Asset Allocation (Hardcover, 1995) S. J. Huxley, J. B. Burns The basic premise (for retirees) seems to be: >Bond ladders for required income >Invest the remaining in a 100% equity index fund ...
by SirHorace
Sat Oct 18, 2008 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Zvi Bodie's Equity LEAPS strategy
Replies: 6
Views: 2901

I read the book about a year ago (2003 version). I was very intrigued by the ideas in the book but was disappointed by the lack of comprehensive real-world examples and also that the person in the example Professor Bodie cited ended up not using the technique!!! I wrote Professor Bodie inquiring if ...
by SirHorace
Wed Feb 27, 2008 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Download Program (Help)
Replies: 2
Views: 1120

Thanks but I am quite familiar with "manually" downloading Yahoo data. This program I am trying to (re)find is extremely useful in that it will automatically download all at once as many funds as you want.

SirHorace
by SirHorace
Tue Feb 26, 2008 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Yahoo Download Program (Help)
Replies: 2
Views: 1120

Yahoo Download Program (Help)

My Dear Friends, In the recent past, I had a simple, very handy, free program that would read a file of fund names and then download the historical fund values from Yahoo into multiple Csv files. I have lost that program due to a recent disk failure. Does anyone know the name or location of that pro...
by SirHorace
Wed Nov 21, 2007 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to emulate Total Stock Market Index
Replies: 12
Views: 3396

The technique described in post "Vanguard Tracking Portfolio I" will do exactly what you want.

Horace
by SirHorace
Mon Oct 22, 2007 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation
Replies: 14
Views: 3918

Squirl wrote: Even though it's deterministic (with all the known flaws of such it's good for taking quick looks at many possible scenarios. That will help build an intuitive feel for the sensitivity of the results to the various input parameters. And later: Here, one has the capability quickly to do...
by SirHorace
Mon Oct 22, 2007 10:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation
Replies: 14
Views: 3918

Gummy wrote: Now that's neat! Thank you. Coming from the "Master" that's a real compliment. It'd really be slick if'n the a = annual return could be made random I believe doing that would turn the differential equation (DE) into a "stochastic" differential equation (SDE) which at...
by SirHorace
Sun Oct 21, 2007 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation
Replies: 14
Views: 3918

Market Timer said Your terminal boundary condition is that you want zero principal at age 100? Well, the terminal age and portfolio level is of course user-defined. I use 100 because my wife is 9 years younger than me and while I most likely won't live to 100 my wife may very well live to 91 so I us...
by SirHorace
Sun Oct 21, 2007 8:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: (Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation
Replies: 14
Views: 3918

(Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation

(Just For Fun) Retirement Planning Differential Equation Several years ago I was playing around with an equation while building retirement planners when I suddenly realized that the equation looked like a differential equation (see below): Rate Of Change Of Principal = Interest On Principal + Social...
by SirHorace
Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

Gatorking wrote >Similar in what way? I was really referring to the fact that all three portfolios closely tracked their target growth curve and all three had almost negligible drawdowns. Since the portfolio characteristics were very close to each other I classified them as "similar". I wa...
by SirHorace
Mon Sep 03, 2007 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

CORRECTION: SirHorace wrote The downside to placing conditions on fund activity is that any constraints placed on the model reduce the degree of freedom of the model. The resulting portfolio would then be sub-optimal with respect to its design goal (minimum absolute deviation (MAD) from a stated gro...
by SirHorace
Mon Sep 03, 2007 9:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

marana wrote: The model did not capture much of the global equity capitalization in the table of results as a function of design growth. The linear programming (LP) formulation is extremely adaptable. The formulation you suggest would be trivial to implement and could be used to "fine tune"...
by SirHorace
Sat Sep 01, 2007 7:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

bearcat98 wrote I would be interested to see what your results would be at 5%, 6%, and 7%. Well, it appears that the results are very similar to each other (see charts below). I have also corrected some errors in the portfolio summary chart and reproduced it below. Please note that some funds are cl...
by SirHorace
Fri Aug 31, 2007 10:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

Definition: "designed portfolio" means a portfolio designed by the methods I have described in this thread. Definition: "superior characteristics/superior performance" means a portfolio that adheres to its target growth with a minimum deviation from the target growth. Mas wrote: ...
by SirHorace
Thu Aug 30, 2007 6:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

My dear friends >I definitely need new glasses!!! A slight error crept into the "Vanguard 10% Tracking Portfolio" chart above. The portfolio was constructed using VBIIX instead of VBLTX. I have recreated the chart using the correct fund and presented it below. The funny thing is that the e...
by SirHorace
Thu Aug 30, 2007 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

My Dear Friends, Please note that the portfolio chart below was created including the Vanguard funds that are closed to new investors: VGHCX --- Health Care Fund Inv VGPMX --- Precious Metals & Mining VHCOX --- Capital Opportunity Investors Shares I did this for (my) educational purposes and bec...
by SirHorace
Tue Aug 28, 2007 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)
Replies: 35
Views: 12252

Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution)

Vanguard Tracking Portfolio II (aka The 8% Solution) My Dear Friends, When I retired a year ago Vanguard proposed the following retirement portfolio for me: VASGX (80%) --- LifeStrategy Growth Fund VTSMX (20%) --- Total Stock Mkt Idx Inv The historical growth and drawdown characteristics of this por...
by SirHorace
Sat Aug 25, 2007 9:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio I
Replies: 15
Views: 4562

gatorking: >I think you have enough variables here i.e. the returns of 57 funds, to fit just about any curve you want. Interesting observation. It would also mean that one could construct equivalent low-cost Vanguard portfolios to high-cost non Vanguard portfolios. >Do you get different portfolios i...
by SirHorace
Fri Aug 24, 2007 10:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Tracking Portfolio I
Replies: 15
Views: 4562

Vanguard Tracking Portfolio I

My Dear Friends, Once a month I attend an informal investment club breakfast meeting. Members are encouraged to present their investment activities. Several months ago, a lady presented a mutual fund she "found" and was considering purchasing (Permanent Portfolio, PRPFX). I looked at the f...
by SirHorace
Fri Aug 24, 2007 9:50 pm
Forum: Forum Issues and Administration
Topic: deleted from test post thread
Replies: 54
Views: 4351

Why do I keep getting these messages - I meet the posting cr

Why do I keep getting these messages - I meet the posting criteria!!! General Error In order to try to prevent spammers, we do not allow our members to post links or images until they have posted at least 4 legitimate posts and have been with us for more than 6 days. We appreciate your understanding...
by SirHorace
Wed Aug 01, 2007 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Order of withdrawal during retirement
Replies: 2
Views: 2043

Take a look at: www i-orp com It determines how you should spend from various funds to minimize the amount of taxes owed (it has built-in tax code models). From the ORP home page: The Optimal Retirement Planner (ORP) is a tool to evaluate how the first two issues impact the third. Given your current...
by SirHorace
Sun Jun 03, 2007 7:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: LEASE vs. OWN
Replies: 20
Views: 5665

LEASE vs. OWN

The (free) web site shown below has an interesting spread sheet that may help one evaluate the lease vs. own issue.

http://www.gummy-stuff.org/buy-or-rent.htm

(The actual spreadsheet name is house-vs-apt.xls)

Horace
by SirHorace
Sun Jun 03, 2007 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At retirement, draw from taxable or tax defered first?
Replies: 22
Views: 7499

At retirement, draw from taxable or tax deferred first

Taylor Larimore wrote: I assume you may be James Welch, founder of the ORB website… Thank you for the complement but no, I am not James Welch but I will admit that I am very envious of the real James Welch for his ability to implement the ORP website. I have no connection with the web site whatsoeve...
by SirHorace
Sun Jun 03, 2007 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: At retirement, draw from taxable or tax defered first?
Replies: 22
Views: 7499

At retirement, draw from taxable or tax defered first?

I call your attention to a wonderful free retirement-oriented web site at m This web site (named Optimal Retirement Planner, ORP) features a retirement calculator that uses tax models and mathematical optimization (specifically linear programming) to maximize your spending money and minimize your ta...