Search found 477 matches

by adam1712
Fri Jul 03, 2020 11:16 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth lovers: Is our ratio out of whack?
Replies: 8
Views: 782

Re: Roth lovers: Is our ratio out of whack?

My general observation is a large majority of retirees who had incomes in the middle class range end up in the 12% bracket in retirement. I think for the average American it's hard to be too wrong with Roth at 12% or less and Traditional at 22% or more. Sure, tax brackets could change but if the 12%...
by adam1712
Wed Jul 01, 2020 10:50 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting a Refund (or any response) from Delta Seems Impossible
Replies: 29
Views: 1770

Re: Getting a Refund (or any response) from Delta Seems Impossible

... Not sure if I can get a charge-back from credit card when this flight was paid for several months ago? I like that angle, if that's possible. Not very familiar with charge backs and associated rules. I vaguely thought there was a "within 30 days" rule. ... Pretty sure it's days from expected se...
by adam1712
Wed Jul 01, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?
Replies: 358
Views: 18813

Re: Will ex-US ever revert to good performance? Or is it just a high-risk, low-reward investment?

It seems odd to me to proclaim that US tech will forever be dominant at the same time as the best talent may be seeking work elsewhere for several reasons I work in technology, and can tell you the vast majority of tech workers on the planet are hoping to move to the US. The pay and benefits that U...
by adam1712
Wed Jul 01, 2020 12:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Getting a Refund (or any response) from Delta Seems Impossible
Replies: 29
Views: 1770

Re: Getting a Refund (or any response) from Delta Seems Impossible

Do you have emails from Delta originally confirming the booking and then were there any emails cancelling the flights? Have you checked your Delta account for certificates/eCredits that were created for a cancelled flight. I think the eCredit code might be the same as the original confirmation code ...
by adam1712
Mon Jun 29, 2020 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is risk often defined as volatility?
Replies: 27
Views: 1782

Re: Why is risk often defined as volatility?

I believe risk is always the same. It is the range of possible returns for an investment and the probability that each of those returns will happen. What changes is how people choose to model that risk and then the risk management strategy they take. It’s been found that the volatility of stock retu...
by adam1712
Sat Jun 13, 2020 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy
Replies: 200
Views: 16209

Re: The “Abandon Bonds” strategy

Personally, I use part of my funds allocated to bonds toward extra house mortgage payments. I just don't see other things in fixed income that come close to the guaranteed return of my mortgage even if the rate is pretty low. I keep about half of my bond allocation in actual fixed income investments...
by adam1712
Thu Jun 04, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Nursing home has requirements for employees' private lives due to covid
Replies: 38
Views: 2741

Re: Nursing home has requirements for employees' private lives due to covid

One thing I'd consider doing is asking the employer for a clarification on an expiration date or if there is a policy if state or local guidelines change (such as going from phase 1 re-opening to phase 2). It's a non-confrontational way to create dialog and might even help push the employer along a ...
by adam1712
Thu May 28, 2020 10:56 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Overpay for the home we love?
Replies: 62
Views: 4975

Re: Overpay for the home we love?

It's really silly to make a decision based on the fact you get to live in a house you love for 1-2 more years. That's the only time period that love of the house matters. You have 2 more years of living there whether you buy or rent. Then after that, there's no reason to care whether you love the ho...
by adam1712
Mon May 25, 2020 6:45 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New TVs with built-in Roku
Replies: 51
Views: 2662

Re: New TVs with built-in Roku

I think any TV you get is still going to have some input so you can bypass. But I definitely recommend a Roku TV as it's simple and reasonably distributor independent. Things may change but I think Roku is going to be around and the technology isn't changing as fast. It's built to work with your TV ...
by adam1712
Thu May 14, 2020 6:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: **AMAZED** Just venting
Replies: 16
Views: 2481

Re: **AMAZED** Just venting

Two things: 1. Many on this board will probably die with a lot of money. It's nice when life's fortunes allows one to donate to charity or leave money to family/friends but it doesn't change your own life very much. 2. Hopefully you have a good estimate of your expected social security and have a go...
by adam1712
Tue May 12, 2020 10:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?
Replies: 39
Views: 2438

Re: Mortgage payment instead of bonds: how?

I've been paying down my mortgage ahead of schedule for several years in place of bonds. I saved the 30-year amortization schedule for expected principal paid and I count any amount that I am ahead of the schedule as part of my bonds in my asset allocation. If stocks pull back, I stop paying extra o...
by adam1712
Sun May 10, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Setting up wife after devorce
Replies: 45
Views: 5990

Re: Setting up wife after devorce

Have you formally started the divorce process? I'm not as against you helping her with her asset allocation as some are. Every divorce is different. But I'd recommend not making any promises or decisions until the division of assets is final. Many divorces first attempt to be amicable but things can...
by adam1712
Fri May 08, 2020 7:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: part time employee vs 1099 for ppp reasons?
Replies: 8
Views: 435

Re: part time employee vs 1099 for ppp reasons?

I was assuming the purpose was to add his salary in some way to get a larger loan amount. That doesn't seem possible. The only other possibility I can think of was that the company had employees laid off and instead of rehiring them he was going to shift an IC to a W2 to artificially create a new e...
by adam1712
Thu May 07, 2020 7:22 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cross Country Drive-Best route? Safest way to do it?
Replies: 40
Views: 3826

Re: Cross Country Drive-Best route? Safest way to do it?

I think the scenery would be better on 90 but the hotel, food and fuel options would probably be better on 80. There's also a big difference in the amount of truck traffic with I90 being much less traveled and a more relaxing drive. I'd also consider whether there's pet sitting businesses (I think ...
by adam1712
Tue May 05, 2020 8:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Title guy when buying a house
Replies: 17
Views: 1434

Re: Title guy when buying a house

This varies a lot by state based on law and custom. I have no idea how accurate the following is but shows how much it varies.

https://sandygadow.com/state-by-state-closing-guide/
by adam1712
Sat Apr 11, 2020 5:12 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Ponzi Scheme?
Replies: 215
Views: 17818

Re: Ponzi Scheme?

I agree with an anonymous report to legal authorities. Another approach with your parents is to at least remind them of the importance of diversification. You can remind them even if it's not a scam, it's impossible for this to not have some risk. Hopefully that can convince them to not be greedy an...
by adam1712
Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hope you weren't born in 1960
Replies: 63
Views: 10865

Re: Hope you weren't born in 1960

The paper says the reason will be a decline in wages. Checking how wages affect AMIE I see the calculation uses "National Average Wage" So I look up how national average wage is calculated and find this: The National Average Salary (or the National Average Wage) is the mean salary for the working p...
by adam1712
Sun Apr 05, 2020 7:42 pm
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus
Replies: 1653
Views: 75208

Re: Bogleheads community discussion - Coronavirus

The real trade-off is: the cost of increasing the health system capacity, including facilities, ventilators, masks, testing, and the medical personnel vs. the cost of quarantine. Victoria The only way I can think of to have a big enough reserve is to have a federally managed health care backup syst...
by adam1712
Fri Apr 03, 2020 12:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Should I cancel my travel in France and Belgium in mid May?
Replies: 75
Views: 5732

Re: Should I cancel my travel in France and Belgium in mid May?

I'd "cancel" but wouldn't be in a hurry to actually cancel. Especially flights as already mentioned. I think it's highly unlikely you'll be able to go. And if because of some miracle you are able to go, there would likely be good last minute prices so it's no harm to cancel your current reservations.
by adam1712
Mon Mar 30, 2020 8:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Approaching Inheritance from Parents
Replies: 26
Views: 2062

Re: Help with Approaching Inheritance from Parents

You don't really even say why you want that expensive of a house. It seems like you are in good shape financially (although hard to tell) and it seems it might even be reasonable to relax a little on the savings. I'm in a somewhat similar situation. I have no real desire to retire early. I'm saving ...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 2:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6939

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

Gotcha, so you're reducing your cash assets. I've never been a believer in holding that much in cash with interest rates like they are. I've always used times when stock returns were good to fund major discretionary spending. But it's an interesting point about the cost difference of buying those t...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 1:12 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6939

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

Is there anything you cut back on or do you have more income? In recessions, I always feel like I'm facing a tradeoff between buying more stocks and good deals on cars/vacations etc. Just trying to figure out how you are doing both . Well, we save or invest 200% of our living expenses every year. T...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 12:40 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6939

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

Is there anything you cut back on or do you have more income? In recessions, I always feel like I'm facing a tradeoff between buying more stocks and good deals on cars/vacations etc. Just trying to figure out how you are doing both . Well, we save or invest 200% of our living expenses every year. T...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6939

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

I'd argue it's almost never a good thing. Mainly because wages tend to not go up much even if you have a secure, well-paying job. And also the real economic loss has to be lost in stock returns even if there might be some benefit you can take advantage of with an over-correction. The bottom line tho...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:42 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?
Replies: 92
Views: 6939

Re: If you have a secure, well-paying job and cash-heavy, would a recession be a good thing?

Yes, absolutely. We usually: --Defer home remodels & landscaping until there is a recession --Buy cars during recessions --Buy collectibles during recessions --Buy real estate during recessions --Keep buying stocks during recessions Is there anything you cut back on or do you have more income? In r...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How often do you re-balance during these times?
Replies: 42
Views: 3571

Re: How often do you re-balance during these times?

I rebalance monthly with my new contributions. Now that it's getting a little tougher with a larger portfolio, I might move an extra $1000 or so in the direction it needs to go. I'd say roughly I aim for 1/12 of the difference so I'll be back to my AA in a year. I have no desire to move big amounts ...
by adam1712
Sat Mar 28, 2020 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]
Replies: 39
Views: 1705

Re: Tax Loss Harvesting: Violation of IRS Code?!? [Economic Substance Doctrine]

So this seems to very explicitly say that if one performs a transaction only to change one's tax posture then then any tax benefits (losses in this case) would be disallowed. Okay, so here's the basic point of confusion for me: The wash sale rule was written with the assumption that people will do ...
by adam1712
Thu Mar 19, 2020 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CoronaCrash shows ETF is better than Mutual Fund
Replies: 51
Views: 4826

Re: CoronaCrash shows ETF is better than Mutual Fund

Honestly, I've been having the exact opposite feeling. I don't want to be out of the market or doubled up in the market for a minute right now. And I can do that easily and across platforms with mutual funds. I can sell a set amount and buy a set amount and know everything will be executed at the NA...
by adam1712
Tue Mar 03, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What if Fed cut doesn't work?
Replies: 137
Views: 6530

Re: What if Fed cut doesn't work?

I don't necessarily agree with the policy but an argument can be made if the supply chain is a temporary issue because of Covid-19, then it might make sense to help companies borrow cheaply so they can avoid layoffs and bankruptcies to weather the storm. If it's a more long term supply chain problem...
by adam1712
Mon Feb 24, 2020 8:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?
Replies: 94
Views: 6432

Re: Does Biomedical Engineering School Matter?

I have a BS and PhD in BME. It's impossible to know without knowing more about the two programs and your daughter. BME is a very diverse major and career path. There's a joke that if you tell somebody you are majoring in BME, they ask what type. As has already been alluded to, if you really want to ...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 12, 2020 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 305624

Re: Coronavirus and the market

It's worth remembering how much noise there is in the stock market relative to any big news event. Let's say the entire world economy shut down for an entire 2 months because of coronavirus and cut 1/6 of all production for a year. If world GDP is 3%, it's now 2.5% this year. Let's say it affected ...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 12, 2020 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Coronavirus and the market
Replies: 4002
Views: 305624

Re: Coronavirus and the market

I think people are missing the point here by debating transmission and death rates, or trying to predict the possible future spread of the virus, or focusing only on the impact to the airline and cruise ship industries. To a large extent, it doesn't matter how severe the virus actually is, it only ...
by adam1712
Sun Feb 09, 2020 8:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wife's oncologist has stopped treatment, is recommending hospice
Replies: 93
Views: 14916

Re: Wife's oncologist has stopped treatment, is recommending hospice

To the OP... As others have pointed out, when you go into hospice, whether is it in-home or in a facility, you agree to not seek treatment for a cure or life extending measures. So, you and your wife have to decide if you have accepted that this is the end of trying to get better or live longer. Ho...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 05, 2020 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations
Replies: 144
Views: 17967

Re: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations

Yeah, we're going to disagree on this one. I think there is a large possible benefit in having them figure out the financial part on their own, particularly it helps them appreciate how much costs matter. This was definitely the case for myself, my wife, and my 3 siblings who all paid their own way...
by adam1712
Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Those Who Want to Work Past 70
Replies: 25
Views: 2498

Re: Those Who Want to Work Past 70

I think I could be very likely to work until or past 70 but I definitely plan to be prepared to retire at 65. Financial independence is too valuable to me even if I choose to continue to work. Plus the risks of major health issues or work environment changes.
by adam1712
Mon Feb 03, 2020 9:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations
Replies: 144
Views: 17967

Re: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations

I'm always surprised by these threads here. Since one of my ancestors used their inheritance to come to the US, I know each of 4 generations has left more than they received. I don't plan to break the streak. I also wonder how relevant stories about millionaire and now billionaire families are to m...
by adam1712
Sun Feb 02, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations
Replies: 144
Views: 17967

Re: Why many inheritances don't last past 3 generations

I'm always surprised by these threads here. Since one of my ancestors used their inheritance to come to the US, I know each of 4 generations has left more than they received. I don't plan to break the streak. I also wonder how relevant stories about millionaire and now billionaire families are to mo...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 25, 2020 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 289
Views: 19275

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

Fortunately standards of living tend to be correlated with gains in the stock market. So having some equities helps retirees keep up. I’ve heard this argument several times. But isn’t the assumption that stocks will outperform inflation already accounted for in most people’s retirement planning? Ta...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 25, 2020 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 289
Views: 19275

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

OK, I see the crux of the disagreement. 1. Your interpretration is that COLA is to maintain current living standards , i.e. maintain the standard of living to constant quality, features and functions. No upgrades. 2. My interpretration is that COLA is to maintain the standard of living to contempor...
by adam1712
Fri Jan 17, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 289
Views: 19275

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

Small correction, that's the change in consumer prices in California. There's only one inflation rate. Unless you are willing to start trading me $19.50 of your dollars for every $20 of mine. **I** am willing to trade you $19.50 of my dollars for $20 of yours. PM me for details. :) Oops, good catch...
by adam1712
Fri Jan 17, 2020 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?
Replies: 289
Views: 19275

Re: Isn’t Inflation Much Larger Than 2%?

For Californians, here are the inflation rates. We are ahead of the Union by at least 1-2% every year :D http://www.dof.ca.gov/Forecasting/Economics/Indicators/Inflation/ Check : Calendar Year averages: from 1950 You can add further for San Francisco/Los Angeles Metros. Small correction, that's the...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 04, 2020 2:34 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Zealand Train trip
Replies: 77
Views: 3694

Re: New Zealand Train trip

I know this will drive people nuts but this is what we have settled on. 2 nights in Auckland Fly to Dunedin for one night and see some penguins and the town. Fly to Christchurch for 2 nights and take the tranz-alpine one of the days. Take the coastal train to the ferry and stay in Wellington 3 nigh...
by adam1712
Sat Jan 04, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Zealand Train trip
Replies: 77
Views: 3694

Re: New Zealand Train trip

As of now and listening to all of your suggestions this is the plan. 2 nights in Auckland and fly to Wellington. 2 nights Wellington and fly to Queenstown 2 nights Queenstown and fly to Christchurch 2 nights Christchurch and fly to Melbourne 3 nights Melbourne and fly to Auckland. I am wondering if...
by adam1712
Wed Jan 01, 2020 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Zealand Train trip
Replies: 77
Views: 3694

Re: New Zealand Train trip

As of now and listening to all of your suggestions this is the plan. 2 nights in Auckland and fly to Wellington. 2 nights Wellington and fly to Queenstown 2 nights Queenstown and fly to Christchurch 2 nights Christchurch and fly to Melbourne 3 nights Melbourne and fly to Auckland. I am wondering if...
by adam1712
Tue Dec 31, 2019 5:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Zealand Train trip
Replies: 77
Views: 3694

Re: New Zealand Train trip

Here's what I would do: Fly to Auckland and visit Waitakere Ranges and Waiheke Island by bus tour/ferry Fly from Auckland to Christchurch, take the Tranzalpine to Greymouth and back (find a bus tour on the west coast from Greymouth) Fly from Christchurch to Melbourne Fly from Melbourne to Auckland ...
by adam1712
Tue Dec 31, 2019 3:41 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: New Zealand Train trip
Replies: 77
Views: 3694

Re: New Zealand Train trip

Here's what I would do: Fly to Auckland and visit Waitakere Ranges and Waiheke Island by bus tour/ferry Fly from Auckland to Christchurch, take the Tranzalpine to Greymouth and back (find a bus tour on the west coast from Greymouth) Fly from Christchurch to Melbourne Fly from Melbourne to Auckland a...
by adam1712
Thu Dec 26, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: demented mother's online spending
Replies: 126
Views: 11444

Re: demented mother's online spending

Taking away the iPad isn't an option Why not? It's the obvious solution. Otherwise, cancel this credit card and don't give her a new one. +1 This is the solution. Hard as it may be. You have to weather this storm and be done. All these stupid workarounds like returning items, cancelling things, don...
by adam1712
Mon Dec 16, 2019 2:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Give Land Back [Bought land from friend, he wants to buy it back]
Replies: 83
Views: 5249

Re: Give Land Back

All real estate is local. If you plan to sell at some point, I'd be very careful about turning down an adjacent landowner. I'd probably come back with a little more than he offered, say 10%, settle somewhere in the middle, and move on. There's a whole bunch of other factors like the nature of your f...
by adam1712
Sat Dec 14, 2019 7:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When/how to spend HSA funds in retirement?
Replies: 49
Views: 3232

Re: When/how to spend HSA funds in retirement?

The only hard rule I can think of is the situation where a person is going to withdraw $1 from a tIRA for anything other than a Roth conversion. In this situation, it is better to Roth convert that $1 and withdraw $1 from the HSA (backed by a historical QME). Otherwise, there is a sea of variables ...