Search found 121 matches

by Desert
Fri Sep 29, 2017 8:53 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River
Replies: 10
Views: 1077

Re: Review of a boat-bike tour along the Danube River

What is the market doing in June, 2018? :happy
by Desert
Wed Aug 09, 2017 6:47 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best at Home Safe
Replies: 24
Views: 1907

Re: Best at Home Safe

"Good" safes have UL TL ratings, such as TL-15, and are bolted to the floor. But a TL-15 safe is rated as such because it's supposed to take 15 minutes to break into. And that's a very good safe. Most safes simply give the thief a convenient way to spot and transport valuables out of the house.
by Desert
Sun Aug 06, 2017 8:51 pm
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Is the Munchkin MAN still alive?
Replies: 16
Views: 5210

Re: Is the Munchkin MAN still alive?

The munchkin man was one of my favorite posters. I always looked forward to hearing more from the munchkin man. The munchkin man never strayed from his character. I miss the munchkin man very much and I hope he returns soon. I see very little point in life without the munchkin man's comments.
by Desert
Fri Aug 04, 2017 10:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are value stocks safer or more risky?
Replies: 49
Views: 3904

Re: Are value stocks safer or more risky?

By any reasonable definition of risk, value stocks are higher risk. Their expected return is also greater. Buffet is operating in a totally different space than the rest of us.
by Desert
Sun Jul 30, 2017 9:15 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What are your monthly expenses?
Replies: 69
Views: 7331

Re: What are your monthly expenses?

Over 50% but with my expenses being so high, I'm still not satisfied. *Note* I live rent free, no debt, car payed for. Live your life and enjoy yourself. A 50% savings rate is great. As long as you can cut out frills if needed (job loss, housing no longer free, other life changes) I'd say you are d...
by Desert
Mon Jul 03, 2017 8:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roll call Warren Buffet 90/10 portfolio
Replies: 89
Views: 15020

Re: Roll call Warren Buffet 90/10 portfolio

Imagine if your $1,000,000 nest egg turned into $100,000 over 3 years. That is what happened to 100% stock investors between 1929 and 1932. This and Taylor's post above are two of the most important posts in this thread. 2008/9 was brutal, but hardly the worst possible outcome for equities. Further...
by Desert
Tue May 23, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard
Replies: 22
Views: 2740

Re: Lazy way to increase returns on cash in Vanguard

Depending on your tax bracket, you could consider Vanguard's limited-term tax-exempt muni fund, VMLUX. It has a duration of about 2 years, and a yield of 1.24%. For an investor in the 25% tax bracket, that's a taxable equivalent yield of 1.65%. Not real exciting, but a bit more yield for a bit more ...
by Desert
Thu Feb 16, 2017 10:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?
Replies: 39
Views: 4184

Re: Is 30% stock enough to keep up with (or beat) inflation?

100% TIPS might fare even better. For the 17-year period 1965-1981 (inclusive), US stocks had a cumulative return of about -5% and intermediate-term Treasuries had a cumulative real return of about -34%. Real yield on 10-year TIPS is 0.43% and on 20-year TIPS it's 0.75%, so say 0.65% for a 17-year ...
by Desert
Wed Jan 25, 2017 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds
Replies: 113
Views: 9932

Re: Swedroe's guidelines to Bonds

I like the mix of 5-year CD's in combination with a slice of Long Term Treasuries to capture any flight to quality behavior during equity bear markets.
by Desert
Mon Dec 26, 2016 1:08 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of your belly........
Replies: 82
Views: 11499

Re: How to get rid of your belly........

Here's my 30-something, working mom of three approach... I got a Fitbit and started walking. 15,000 steps a day. It seems like a lot at first, but I found my body and mind are happier (less stress, better quality sleep) at that number. Use MyFitnessPal to track calories. I used a target of .5 lbs p...
by Desert
Thu Oct 06, 2016 11:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?
Replies: 32
Views: 6036

Re: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?

Some say that the YNAB budgeting method begins to resemble a religion. I am one such YNAB evangelist. YNAB is for folks for whom their savings rate is the most important metric. For the OP's purposes though, YNAB might not cut it. I would question though the reason to print monthly reports. One pro...
by Desert
Thu Oct 06, 2016 9:18 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?
Replies: 32
Views: 6036

Re: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?

The storage aspect - I don't like the idea of storing a lot of my financial information on the cloud. I definitely understand this concern. For years now, I've preferred to keep as much of my financial data locally stored and backed up as possible. But I do see the cloud computing/storage as the fu...
by Desert
Tue Oct 04, 2016 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?
Replies: 32
Views: 6036

Re: Moving From Quicken: Moneydance, YNAB, GnuCash or other?

I used Quicken for over 20 years, and recently switched to YNAB plus my own spreadsheets. YNAB isn't very useful for investments, tax issues, etc. It's mainly a budgeting software. It's a great tool for managing monthly and annual cash flows. I use it to effectively account for all expenses, even th...
by Desert
Fri Sep 30, 2016 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anybody using Andrews CU 3% IRA CD?
Replies: 39
Views: 6150

Re: Anybody using Andrews CU 3% IRA CD?

As Kevin described, I used the forms on Andrews FCU's website to initiate the transfer. Andrews then sent the request to Vanguard, and Vanguard snail mailed the check directly to Andrews. The entire process took about two weeks. I sold the ITT fund I was holding in Vanguard and put the funds in the ...
by Desert
Fri Sep 30, 2016 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Anybody using Andrews CU 3% IRA CD?
Replies: 39
Views: 6150

Re: Anybody using Andrews CU 3% IRA CD?

Just FYI, my transfer from Vanguard to Andrews FCU just completed this week, so the offer is still available. Between this slice and the Pentagon FCU CD's, I have nearly all FI in CD's at 3%. The remaining slice is in LTT.
by Desert
Tue Aug 30, 2016 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Trident Portfolio
Replies: 25
Views: 3700

Re: Trident Portfolio

Looks like the Trident did better from 1972-2015 than the 3 fund (see below). I used 33/33/34 (34 for bond). But the problem is you want to know if Trident will do better in the future . That's an unknown that portfolio visualizer (as great as it is) will never be able to tell you. If you stick to ...
by Desert
Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold 2% dividend
Replies: 22
Views: 3165

Re: Gold 2% dividend

Simplifying, assuming a 5% real rate from equity, 0% real from gold, a initial 66.6/33.3 equity/gold weighting bought and held for 30 years results in ((( 1.05^30 ) x 0.666 ) + 0.333 )^(1/30) annualised gain factor = 1.04 (4%); And proportioned = ( 0.666 x 5 ) + ( 0.333 x 2 ) = 4 i.e. gold virtual ...
by Desert
Mon Feb 15, 2016 6:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CD's instead of bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 8124

Re: Using CD's instead of bonds

Keep in mind that a (small?) 1 percentage point higher yield translates to roughly 5 percentage points more total return over 5 years and 10 percentage points over 10 years (of course more with compounding factored in). Just like with expense ratios, apparently small differentials in annual returns...
by Desert
Sun Feb 14, 2016 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CD's instead of bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 8124

Re: Using CD's instead of bonds

Where is ogd? He normally would chime in to let folks know about "riding the yield curve": https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=132601 Basically, if you buy treasury bonds at the steepest part of the yield curve, then you will accrue capital gains, in addition to your normal i...
by Desert
Sun Feb 14, 2016 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Using CD's instead of bonds
Replies: 62
Views: 8124

Re: Using CD's instead of bonds

(I have underlined the mention of CDs) Cash - Cash and cash equivalents - such as savings deposits, certificates of deposit , treasury bills, money market deposit accounts, and money market funds - are the safest investments, but offer the lowest return of the three major asset categories. There is...
by Desert
Sat Feb 13, 2016 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks / Bonds / Gold Portfolio Backtested
Replies: 7
Views: 1211

Re: Stocks / Bonds / Gold Portfolio Backtested

Portfolios containing significant allocations to gold typically look great in back-testing starting in 1972. The gold/dollar peg was removed at that time, leading to a sort of reset of gold prices. Gold wasn't legal to own at the time in the U.S. It was legalized in 1975. When back-testing, it's goo...
by Desert
Sat Jan 09, 2016 4:51 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to do with my Audi A3 TDI
Replies: 54
Views: 5425

Re: What to do with my Audi A3 TDI

I did get the "goodwill package", which is a $500 Visa prepaid card and a $500 dealer credit. I don't plan on using the latter, honestly, as me experience has been that dealers always "find" things they "suggest" that you do; I would be shocked if their "suggestio...
by Desert
Sun Dec 27, 2015 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A little about Larry S
Replies: 51
Views: 8816

Re: A little about Larry S

Kevin M wrote:Here's the pic:
Kevin


I might be reading too much into the pic, but I feel like Larry was probably thinking something like "wow, the risk of a simple market-weighted portfolio is much higher than any of these women realize; there's gotta be a better way." :wink:
by Desert
Sun Dec 27, 2015 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A little about Larry S
Replies: 51
Views: 8816

Re: A little about Larry S

Wow, an amazing story about the photo Larry.

And add my voice to the chorus of appreciation. I like your writing style, brief and to the point. The concept of the "Larry Portfolio" has been very useful to me.
by Desert
Thu Dec 24, 2015 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Final Part of Perfect Storm series,
Replies: 18
Views: 2331

Re: Final Part of Perfect Storm series,

Minor typo: Twenty-year Treasurys have provided an annual average return of 6.1%. Thus, while investors earned a term premium of about 1.9% per year in the first five years, the additional premium over the next 15 years has been only about 0.07% (6.1% minus 5.4%) per year. Should be 0.7%. And in a l...
by Desert
Tue Sep 29, 2015 5:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A better Permanent Portfolio?
Replies: 31
Views: 3581

Re: A better Permanent Portfolio?

Browser, another option is to go with the 50% equity, 25% LTT and 25% gold as you suggested, but split the equity equally among TSM, SVC and EM. It's a bit of a Larry/HBPP hybrid.
by Desert
Mon Sep 07, 2015 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof
Replies: 21
Views: 4070

Re: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof

That was the "Foolish Four," one of the early concepts from the Motley Fool. And one of the clearest examples of specific backtesting to find a strategy that supposedly would work in the future. I think Philip Morris was the monkey wrench in the group that the Fools needed out of the port...
by Desert
Sun Aug 30, 2015 10:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof
Replies: 21
Views: 4070

Re: Dogs of the Dow? - woof woof

i played around with the small dogs as part of my trading account money maybe 20 years ago. there was another option to the small dogs that really made no sense other than it supposedly worked (by chance i guess). that version called for you to have equal positions in the 5 small dogs EXCEPT for th...
by Desert
Sat Aug 29, 2015 10:18 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prius owners and rest of Bogleheads
Replies: 44
Views: 5601

Re: Prius owners and rest of Bogleheads

Another vote for diesel. Over 38,000 miles on my 2013 Passat, I've averaged 44 mpg. We average over 50 in the Prius on highway -- regular gas. And we don't have to deal with VW reliability. Yeah, the Prius is a great car. But I just wanted to point out alternatives. The 44 mpg we've obtained is ove...
by Desert
Sat Aug 29, 2015 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Prius owners and rest of Bogleheads
Replies: 44
Views: 5601

Re: Prius owners and rest of Bogleheads

Another vote for diesel. Over 38,000 miles on my 2013 Passat, I've averaged 44 mpg.
by Desert
Sat Aug 22, 2015 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 42645

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Thanks. I'm a big fan of value investing in general, but value is hard to find in developed countries these days, it appears. I'll look into Global CAPE. I assume one would end up holding a cheap country for many years in some cases, before it recovers. Are you using the strategy for just a slice of...
by Desert
Sat Aug 22, 2015 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?
Replies: 322
Views: 42645

Re: Shiller PE10 nearing nosebleed territory?

Mr. Speer, can you explain "Global CAPE" in your chart?
by Desert
Tue Aug 11, 2015 8:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 10987

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

<snip> The Expectations Hypothesis posits that the yield curve reflects expectations about future shorter-term rates, so that an investor is indifferent, for example, to holding a 10-year bond for 10 years, or rolling over 1-year bonds for 10 years. So according to this theory, a positively-sloped ...
by Desert
Mon Aug 10, 2015 2:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 10987

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

Holding a treasury ladder or fund could provide return beyond the nominal yield, due to "riding the yield curve" or "rolling down the yield curve <snip> It seems like this factor makes the choice between Treasuries and CD's a bit more difficult. Yes, this has been discussed at great ...
by Desert
Sun Aug 09, 2015 5:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CDs vs. treasury bonds
Replies: 101
Views: 10987

Re: CDs vs. treasury bonds

Holding a treasury ladder or fund could provide return beyond the nominal yield, due to "riding the yield curve" or "rolling down the yield curve," as Kitces describes here: m For instance, as noted earlier, with the 5-year yield at 1.75% and the 4-year at “just” 1.50%, a 5-year ...
by Desert
Sun Jun 21, 2015 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Portfolio suggestion for toddler
Replies: 51
Views: 6361

Re: Portfolio suggestion for toddler

Am thinking of opening a taxable account in my name for our toddler. My goal is to hand-over the portfolio in about 30 years so they can continue to contribute. Any suggestion on portfolio mix? Looking to invest $2000 this year and hopefully, every year until say age 20. I think we need to start by...
by Desert
Sun May 31, 2015 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income
Replies: 58
Views: 7495

Re: Clements blog-dividend stocks for retirement income

I'm a believer in dividend growth investing. I'm a believer in passive, low fee index investing. As such, I love the Vanguard dividend appreciation ETF. No need to stock pick or stock monitor, just average in, hold forever. This ETF's yield is 2.15%, while the TSM ETF yield is 1.86%. That's a prett...
by Desert
Sat May 02, 2015 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: There's a monster under my bed... [CDs instead of bonds?]
Replies: 30
Views: 5693

Re: There's a monster under my bed... [CDs instead of bonds?

Thanks to Kevin's posts about 18 months ago, I have about 1/3 of my fixed income in PenFed CDs at 3%. My plan going forward is to only buy treasuries if the 10 year yield exceeds the available direct-purchased CD yield. Also, I don't personally feel that the incremental yield available from corporat...
by Desert
Mon Apr 27, 2015 2:59 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Been invited to wedding in Disney World. My cost?
Replies: 58
Views: 11700

Re: Been invited to wedding in Disney World. My cost?

Why wouldn't you want to go to the happiest place on Earth? I am disappointed by the number of scrooges poo-pooing the idea of going to the wedding. You are kidding, aren't you? Personally, I think destination weddings are one of the worst impositions ever invented. Gill I agree! Also, there is thi...
by Desert
Wed Mar 18, 2015 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 3436

Re: The Larry portfolio vs. Merriman 4-fund portfolio

Or you could take Larry's portfolio and swap out 10% 5 yr Treasuries for gold; 30% SCV, 10% gold, 60% 5YT. This results in higher sharpe, higher CAGR and reduced max drawdown.
by Desert
Mon Jun 16, 2014 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Regarding excess Social Security Tax from 2 employers
Replies: 4
Views: 508

Re: Regarding excess Social Security Tax from 2 employers

Hi, I changed my job in April and they had my social security tax deducted. I read that SST is deducted till your salary reaches 117K m I mentioned to my new employer that my previous employer has ran X amount of salary so please stop deducting the Social Securty tax when it reaches 117K. My new em...
by Desert
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 4238

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

I'm very sorry, I was looking at the second chart (the telltale chart), and thinking that was the real return chart for 100/0. That's what I get for posting before having my morning coffee!
by Desert
Sun Jun 15, 2014 7:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 4238

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

I understand, but take a quick look at the values for ~1993 and 2013 in the real return chart. They are very close, no?
by Desert
Sun Jun 15, 2014 6:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!
Replies: 38
Views: 4238

Re: The Telltale Chart, a terrific tool!

Interesting charts!

If I'm reading the last real return chart correctly, for 100/0, the real return of the market has been close to zero over the past 20 years. :shock:
by Desert
Sat Jun 14, 2014 2:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overdiversification?
Replies: 18
Views: 1783

Re: Overdiversification?

Yeah, it's not entirely different than the idea of slicing and dicing. Essentially looking back at which segments did well in the past, and hoping that the trend continues. Um... no. If you slice/ dice or TSM that is your choice, but don't present the folks who slice/dice as speculating. The fact i...
by Desert
Sat Jun 14, 2014 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overdiversification?
Replies: 18
Views: 1783

Re: Overdiversification?

Yeah, it's not entirely different than the idea of slicing and dicing. Essentially looking back at which segments did well in the past, and hoping that the trend continues.
by Desert
Sat Jun 14, 2014 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overdiversification?
Replies: 18
Views: 1783

Overdiversification?

So what would happen if we just refused to invest in expensive stocks, low quality stocks, stocks with poor price momentum, or stocks issuing shares?


http://www.millennialinvest.com/blog/2014/6/13/overdiversification
by Desert
Tue Jun 10, 2014 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Calling all TIPsters- 5 W's and 1 H of LMP
Replies: 9
Views: 1423

Re: Calling all TIPsters- 5 W's and 1 H of LMP

You could also (along with buying 10 year TIPS each year) purchase 30 year TIPS each year for your later years. For example, a 50 year old could purchase 10 year TIPS to mature starting at age 60, but also purchase some 30 year TIPS to mature starting at age 80. Perhaps do that for 10 years, then sh...
by Desert
Mon Jun 09, 2014 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?
Replies: 59
Views: 5928

Re: 30 Yr TIPS auction 6/19: 1.25% real yield? any takers?

All the factors you mention have some validity. I don't buy long bonds (10+ years) except for TIPS because that's what my IPS says. Based on historic real rates in the range of 2 to 3% for a ten I don't even buy tens at real yields below ~2% let alone thirty's at real yields below 1.5%. If I was yo...