Search found 496 matches

by Regal 56
Mon Mar 18, 2024 11:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Genius of the Financial Industry
Replies: 3
Views: 347

Genius of the Financial Industry

Perusing a Morningstar x-ray of my portfolio, I alighted on the estimated annual fee I’m being charged for my mutual funds. It’s an impressive figure, at least to me. And likely my mutual fund company has nary a glimmer of thought about me as it goes about its business. Essentially, I and many others are paying a business that barely knows we’re alive. Certainly no one working there periodically furrows his or her brow and asks: “would this be good for Tom?” Which brings me to my point. I’d like to take a moment to tip my hat to the financial industry. Ask yourself this: if you want to get rich in a short time without working extremely hard, what line of work would you choose? Law? Too much reading and writing. Medicine? Ridiculous work loa...
by Regal 56
Wed Mar 13, 2024 11:09 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Freetaxusa vs Turbotax
Replies: 121
Views: 16801

Re: Freetaxusa vs Turbotax

This year I used FreeTaxUSA for the first time. As tax software goes, I found it reasonably easy to use. My tax return is slightly more complex than a standard 1040EZ. Some of my income is self-employed, and I also collect book royalties. That makes finding free tax prep software harder to find. But I was able to breeze through with FreeTaxUSA. Both Federal and State returns were free. (Often not the case with “free” tax prep software.)

If TurboTax were free for me, I’d use it. Of all the tax prep software I’ve used, it was the easiest. FreeTaxUSA, however, got the job done with little hassle. So if it’s still around next year, I’ll use it again.
by Regal 56
Mon Jan 01, 2024 12:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Roth IRA 2024 contribution
Replies: 9
Views: 2148

Re: Roth IRA 2024 contribution

Retirement investing should be about as emotionally charged as watching paint dry. If something about it makes you nervous, then you’re doing it wrong.
by Regal 56
Sat Dec 02, 2023 8:26 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 900006

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

On the other hand, why compare at all? You're not investing for anybody else. And it might lead to some form of "tracking error regret" and behavioral mistakes for some investors.
I regard this thread as nothing more sinister than idle chit-chat. The Bogleheads forum isn’t a home for Chicken Little. In 2022, the market did a stomach-turning dive. (My portfolio dropped 25.12%.) It’s unlikely anyone here ran in circles with their hair on fire.

In an up year like 2023, why not view this thread in a more benign way? We’re just enjoying how nice it is to watch our savings grow, without all the anguished hoopla of chart watching and performance chasing.
by Regal 56
Fri Dec 01, 2023 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5249
Views: 900006

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

As of December 1, I’m up 23.61%. I’ve rolled my own portfolio for the past 15 years. As a benchmark, I compare my portfolio to a comparable target retirement fund. For 2023, my benchmark fund is at +15.63%. So this year, at least, doing my own thing has paid off. I plan to retire in 2.5 years. My IRA hasn’t hit my target number yet, but it’s close. And if necessary, I’ll be able to get by on social security and my state pension—my IRA can stay on the back burner until it hits my number. So things are looking good as I head down the home stretch. It wasn’t always thus. Back in 2007, I had no pension and no retirement savings at all. But with the good advice of a friend who knew something about investing (he steered me toward the Bogleheads p...
by Regal 56
Mon Aug 21, 2023 7:09 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Crash predicted - should I temporarily reduce contributions to 403b?
Replies: 99
Views: 11552

Re: Crash predicted - should I temporarily reduce contributions to 403b?

Back during the 2008 market crash, I ran a balanced fund horse race. For the entire year, I tracked 71 mutual funds and ranked them at the end of each month. It was something I did as a fun experiment—when I started, I had no idea 2008 would be the biggest market crash since the Great Depression. At the end of the year, every single fund was down for 2008. All but two of the 71 funds posted double digit losses. Didn’t matter who was running the fund—Blackrock, Dodge & Cox, Fidelity, Janus, Morgan Stanley, T. Rowe Price, Vanguard—they all posted losses. These were the best and brightest minds in investing. None of them avoided the biggest market crash in almost a century. So why would you or I do any better? And by the way, I rode the fu...
by Regal 56
Sun Aug 20, 2023 2:35 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Morningstar Portfolio Sometimes Can’t Do Math
Replies: 4
Views: 703

Re: Morningstar Portfolio Sometimes Can’t Do Math

Typically I ignore comically obvious errors. Good thing, too. Some years ago I opened my Morningstar Portfolio to check my balance. Every fund in my portfolio showed $0. Were I a more histrionic guy, that might have propelled me off the top of a tall building. It’s curious, however, that a computer can make such a simple error. Makes me think twice about buying a self-driving car. If a computer can’t avoid a basic math mistake, then it’s just as likely to blithely smash me into a brick wall.
by Regal 56
Sun Aug 20, 2023 11:50 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Morningstar Portfolio Sometimes Can’t Do Math
Replies: 4
Views: 703

Morningstar Portfolio Sometimes Can’t Do Math

I seldom log into my IRA account. When I merely want to check its balance, I instead use a Morningstar Portfolio account that I keep correctly updated. (This saves the trouble of going through the verification process to view my actual account.) Today I logged into my actual account. Out of habit, I checked it against my Morningstar Portfolio balance, to see if they were the same. Usually, they’re within a few pennies. But today Morningstar Portfolio showed my balance as $64.3253 higher than it should be. Curious, I compared the Morningstar Portfolio numbers of each mutual fund, until I found the discrepancy. One fund was showing a higher balance than it should. First I checked to see if I’d made a mistake in entering figures into Morningst...
by Regal 56
Fri Jul 08, 2022 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: in shock over loss of money in 403(b)
Replies: 131
Views: 16867

Re: in shock over loss of money in 403(b)

There’s a video on YouTube in which Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger say they’ve gone through at least three market crashes in which their investments dropped 50%. They point out that this is inevitable for long term investors. I’ve been invested for only 15 years. In 2008 my portfolio dropped 48%. In 2011, four years of gains were wiped out as my total principal was down 1.74%. And in mid June 2022, my portfolio was down over 30%—in dollars, that’s a loss far more than you’re experiencing. I’m 66, and plan to retire in four years. (And I’m not rich.) Am I panicking? No. Instead, I rebalanced when I hit my trigger point. And now I’m sitting tight. The panickers will sell, as they always do. The smart money will swoop in and buy at bargain ...
by Regal 56
Sat May 28, 2022 9:06 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: Camera crew needed for Bogleheads Conference
Replies: 64
Views: 7460

Re: Camera crew needed for Bogleheads Conference

As a musician, I’ll offer my own perspective. I’m not trying to be rude or confrontational. Rather, I’m simply looking at this request for volunteer work from the perspective of those being asked to provide it. When photographers, videographers, or other more "creative" types are asked to volunteer, it's very often because the people asking don't think it's that big of an ask. In other words, the services in their mind aren't that significant in the first place (i.e. equally worthy of sometimes expensive compensation). Their skills and time are devalued. That's wrong. Agreed. I’m all too familiar with being asked to donate my services. The unspoken attitude behind these requests is often: “All you have to do is show up and play. H...
by Regal 56
Sat Apr 30, 2022 8:02 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Do you balance your checkbook?
Replies: 200
Views: 15321

Re: Do you balance your checkbook?

Johndoefire65 wrote:I still use checks, sometimes, on the large ticket business items.
I never use checks at all, particularly for large amounts. Nowadays, many credit cards offer cash back on all charges. So I make a point of using my credit card for large expenditures. Why not get a little of that money back?

As for balancing a checkbook, one can check one’s balance online in a matter of seconds. Checkbooks are for Luddites.

Tom Poore
South Euclid, OH
USA
by Regal 56
Fri Jan 14, 2022 7:46 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Close to 50? What’s Your Risk Tolerance?
Replies: 133
Views: 15070

Re: Close to 50? What’s Your Risk Tolerance?

I’m 65. Still working and accumulating. If all goes well, I’ll retire at 70. My portfolio is 83/17. By Boglehead standards, I’m a wild and crazy guy. After surviving 2008, my risk tolerance is stratospheric. Maybe that’s not prudent. So I have a backup plan. I don’t want to fully reveal it here, but it involves rummaging through trash cans.
by Regal 56
Mon Jan 03, 2022 8:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 2021 returns: Finally outperforming the 3-fund portfolio!!
Replies: 31
Views: 6011

Re: 2021 returns: Finally outperforming the 3-fund portfolio!!

I see nothing wrong with what you’re doing. Your portfolio is no more complicated than the average target retirement fund from Fidelity or T. Rowe Price. As long as you’re not hopping in and out of funds, your approach seems prudent enough. That said, here’s my own experience. Like you, I’ve rolled my own portfolio. Over the past 14 years years, I’ve tracked my annual returns against what I’d have gotten had I merely held a target retirement fund. Here are the results—the winner for each year is marked in green: My Portfolio ———————————————— Target Retirement 2008: -33.55% ———————————————2008: -35.90% 2009: +31.04%———————————————2009: +36.29% 2010: +16.99% ———————————————2010: +16.50% 2011: -8.09%————————————————2011: -5.77% 2012: +15.63% —...
by Regal 56
Sat Jan 01, 2022 3:20 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen? [not Vanguard]
Replies: 43
Views: 3310

Re: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen?

The site should have done better but you're making this a bigger deal than it is. It isn't any site's job to be up and running on Jan 1 so you can execute your annual ritual. I’m not concerned about site maintenance delaying my business. This has happened before—it doesn’t bother me. What’s bothersome is when a financial institution’s website incorrectly displays a client’s account. Particularly when the solution is so obvious that several posters here have suggested it: close the website until the maintenance is done, and redirect client logons to a page telling them so. Is this expensive or hard to do? More likely it’s nothing more than overlooking the obvious solution. Posters here with IT experience are saying this is an unreasonable e...
by Regal 56
Sat Jan 01, 2022 12:11 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen? [not Vanguard]
Replies: 43
Views: 3310

Re: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen?

There is a common misperception that because some newish technology exists to manage website deployments automagically everyone must be using it. These things usually boil down to resources and priorities. Expecting all website deployments to utilize the latest tech is equivalent to basically stating that why do gasoline engines still exist(and dominate) when the tech for electric and hybrid has been around for more than a decade. ...and: During my career I managed much smaller-scale websites with more modest availability expectations, but you're being completely unrealistic. Maybe this was an unforeseen result of maintenance, or maybe it was just an unrelated problem, possibly affecting many or just a few accounts with specific characteri...
by Regal 56
Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen? [not Vanguard]
Replies: 43
Views: 3310

Re: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen?

The first trading day isn't today and it isn't even tomorrow, so it is not "right before the first trading day of the year". So why not do some maintenance today (which is a holiday anyway)? I understand that January 3rd is the first trading day. But online share purchases are routinely entered days before they can be executed. I didn’t expect my purchase to go through today, tomorrow, or even on Monday. Rather, I merely wanted my purchase entered as soon as possible. I do this at the beginning of every year. Presumably there are many others who do the same. Maybe it would have been better to have a banner on the website announcing the maintenance and not allow anyone to log in at all. Exactly my thought. That’s certainly better ...
by Regal 56
Sat Jan 01, 2022 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen? [not Vanguard]
Replies: 43
Views: 3310

Account Website Shows $0. How Is That Allowed to Happen? [not Vanguard]

This morning I logged into my mutual fund account—not Vanguard, by the way—to set up my 2022 IRA contribution. (It’s a tradition for me to fully fund my IRA on the first trading day of the new year.) When I opened my account, it showed a balance of $0. No explanation. Just a big fat zero. I had just done my end-of-the-year financial summary the previous night. So I know what I have to the last penny in my mutual fund account. Also, I’m not one to immediately panic over a website glitch. I logged out of my account and tried logging back in. After a couple of tries, I finally got a notice that the website was undergoing “end of the year maintenance,” and certain activities would be unavailable until after 7:00 pm today. Okay. (Although why a ...
by Regal 56
Fri Nov 26, 2021 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

I’m reading the book recommended by alex_686: “A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds” by Joanne M. Hill, Dave Nadig, and Matt Hougan. Although much of it goes over my head, it explains the basics very well. What I’m beginning to understand is that my confusion about ETFs stems from my fundamental indifference toward what ETFs offer. Most of the benefits of ETFs mean nothing to me. I don’t care that they can be traded like stocks. I don’t care about their tax efficiency. (All my retirement savings are in a Roth IRA.) I don’t care that their makeup is transparently available on a daily basis. Right down the list of ETF advantages, my response is the same: I just don’t care. Please understand, I’m not saying no one should care. Obviou...
by Regal 56
Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

alex_686 wrote:I might suggesting reading this book: A Comprehensive Guide to Exchange-Traded Funds by Joanne M. Hill et. al. You should be able to find PDFs out on the internet and the Kindle version is free.
Started reading this, and understood what little I’ve read so far. Maybe this is just what the doctor ordered. I’ll let you know.
by Regal 56
Wed Nov 24, 2021 7:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

Thanks. One misconception down—many more to go. You still haven't told us where you got the mistaken idea that [an ETF] was static. Where did my mistaken idea originate? From right inside my pointy little head. My ignorance is home grown. Bear in mind that I’m operating under the assumption that because ETFs are differentiated from mutual funds, they’re somehow fundamentally different. Further, since I’ve never bought an ETF, I’ve never studied them in detail. Ignorance is fertile ground for misconceptions. Somehow I got the idea that buying an ETF is like buying a bag full of canned soup from a grocery store. Once you leave the grocery store and stack the soup cans in your home pantry, no one from the grocery store comes to your house and ...
by Regal 56
Wed Nov 24, 2021 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

Okay, I want to be clear about the question I asked yesterday. Say I bought a share of VTI in 2016. Flash forward to today. One of the stocks in VTI has dropped precipitously. The company still exists and still issues stock. VTI management, however, no longer regards this company as representative of the total US market. So in current and future offerings of VTI, this particular stock is omitted.

Does this mean the newly omitted stock is no longer part of the VTI share I bought in 2016?
by Regal 56
Tue Nov 23, 2021 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

Forgive my short absence from this thread. My old MacBook Pro died on Sunday, and it took time to recover my user name and password for this site. (Thanks to the administrators for so quickly getting me back up.) Much of this discussion is over my head. So I’ve decided to chip away at my confusion one question at a time. If any of my questions appear inane, my ignorance in this subject makes it unavoidable. So here’s my first question: • After an index-based ETF share is purchased by someone, is it still managed in any way by the sponsor who created it? Bear in mind that I’m asking specifically about indexed based ETFs. (I’ll get to managed ETFs later.) By the way, here’s a plain language essay on how an ETF is created: https://www.thebalan...
by Regal 56
Sun Nov 21, 2021 9:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

Before going on, I’d like to use use two posts here to make a point: The boglehead podcast on the VTI mutual fund/ETF gets into this. From their perspective not much different but it also gets into why they’re cheaper. https://rickferri.com/podcast/episode-37-bogleheads-on-investing-guests-gerry-oreilly-and-rich-powers-host-rick-ferri/ The portion of this interview relevant to our discussion begins at the 21:05 mark. I didn’t understand most of it. For me, the interview might as well be in Greek. To be clear, I don’t fault the interview. It’s experts talking to experts, and doubtless they understand each other. But it must be asked: who is this interview aimed at? If it’s aimed at novices, then it entirely misses the mark. It’s filled with ...
by Regal 56
Sat Nov 20, 2021 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

Re: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

First, my thanks to all who've posted replies. Second, my apologies for not being more active in this thread. Saturday is a work day for me, and I also had to tinker with new equipment for my job. So I’m just now checking back in. Please bear with me as I try to digest all this. The stock market is an enigma to me. I have a modest Roth IRA portfolio of mutual funds into which I dump money each year. Buy and hold all the way. I’ve never bought an individual stock. I wouldn’t know a bid/ask spread from a bedspread. And that, perhaps, is why ETFs are puzzling to me. To a reformed day trader, ETFs are probably a comforting reminder of wild market playing. To me, ETFs are an alien breed. Their purported advantages mean nothing to me, since they ...
by Regal 56
Fri Nov 19, 2021 11:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Just Don’t Understand ETFs
Replies: 172
Views: 18479

I Just Don’t Understand ETFs

Try as I might, I don’t understand what an ETF is. Or rather, I don’t see how it’s different from a mutual fund. The only real difference is that it can be bought or sold on a stock exchange, the same as a regular stock. But that’s a distinction without a difference. Is it crucially significant that an ETF can be bought or sold between 9:30-4:00, and a mutual fund can’t? Perhaps that’s crucial to those who want to wheel and deal on an hourly basis. But to a “buy and hold” investor, who cares? ETFs are touted as cheaper. Well, some are and some aren’t. (I just scanned through a list of ETFs with expense ratios well north of 1.00%.) ETFs supposedly have low turnover. But so can mutual funds. ETFs are purported as tax efficient. But so can mut...
by Regal 56
Sat Jul 17, 2021 10:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing advice for a 19 year old
Replies: 28
Views: 2902

Re: Investing advice for a 19 year old

Let’s crunch some numbers. • If you start with nothing, and then save $2,000 a year for 40 years with an annualized return of 8%, you’ll end up with $603,011. • If you start with $25,000, then save $2,000 a year for 40 years with an annualized return of 8%, you’ll end up with $1,102,675. The extra $25,000 at the beginning translates into an extra $499,664 after 40 years. That’s the beauty of starting young. You end up with much more than you put in. What this should tell you is that you don’t need to be the next Warren Buffett. By getting a head start, you only need to make prudent investment choices and let time do the rest. So you’re sitting pretty. Find an appropriate target retirement fund, feed it annually, and forget it. It’s that sim...
by Regal 56
Thu Jul 08, 2021 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 289
Views: 58747

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

stoptothink wrote:Pretty sure they were trying to say not to confuse net worth with personal/self-worth; ie, your financial wealth does not determine your value as a human.
Correct. And I admit to some pride in being addressed as “they.” Sorta like the royal “we.” You won’t get that hoity-toity treatment at your local watering hole.
by Regal 56
Thu Jul 08, 2021 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?
Replies: 289
Views: 58747

Re: Is there a such thing as a blue collar Boglehead?

While I’m not blue collar, my profession is low paying. And I’ll admit that when I began following this site, the “just reached my first $100,000” threads were a bit depressing. Now that this plateau is in my own rear view mirror, I feel better. I’ve never felt looked down upon here. (It helps not to confuse net worth with intrinsic worth.) The bias I’ve noticed here is that Bogleheads take a dim view of stupidity. So I try to keep mine under wraps. It helps that in my job I’ve often interacted with wealthy people. If you never rub elbows with one percenters, it’s easy to negatively stereotype them. But it’s been my experience that the rich are no more likely than the poor man to be either jerks or a saints. The main problem with rich jerks...
by Regal 56
Tue May 25, 2021 5:08 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I turn 65 in November. Please advise on medicare choices.
Replies: 61
Views: 7546

Re: I turn 65 in November. Please advise on medicare choices.

Could be wrong, but I believe every state has a government agency that will give you free advice and healthcare options. You can set up a free consultation and they will go over all of your healthcare options while taking a look at your present prescriptions. Here in Virginia we have the League of Older Americans. It is completely free and is funded by taxpayers. I would recommend that you read the "medicare for dummies" book as other people have suggested, and then schedule a free consultation with the agency in your state. You are right. It is called SHIP. Google that and your state and you should get contact info. They are very good at advising people about Medicare and its different options. I just went on Medicare last month...
by Regal 56
Sat May 22, 2021 7:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: T. Rowe Price Retirement funds
Replies: 18
Views: 3244

Re: T. Rowe Price Retirement finds

TRRHX doesn’t precisely align with the Vanguard and Fidelity 2025 funds—its stock allocation is slightly higher, so it should slightly outperform. But let’s look at T. Rowe Price’s 2020 fund (TRRBX), which has a slightly lower stock allocation than either the Vanguard or Fidelity 2025 funds: TRRBX Returns YTD: 5.80% 1 year: 27.61% 3 year: 10.42% 5 year: 10.70% 10 year: 8.53% This is comparable to or better than the Vanguard and Fidelity funds. But the difference at 5 and 10 years is almost negligible. And as has been noted in the previous posts, there’s no guarantee things will go forward as they have in the past. T. Rowe Price is an excellent fund company. But it’s a question of how closely you adhere to the mantra of cutting costs. In the...
by Regal 56
Sat May 15, 2021 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is Bogle's Vanguard held accountable?
Replies: 27
Views: 3835

Re: How is Bogle's Vanguard held accountable?

To me, the question of whether I as a client have any sway in the governance of a fund company is moot. First, I have no more business offering an opinion on the inner workings of investing than I do advising neurosurgeons on how to do their job. Second, I don’t believe for a moment that fund companies care a fig for what their clients think. Yes, they want our money—that, they care about deeply. But in day to day operations, fund companies would prefer that we leave them alone. A fund company’s relationship with its clients is all about perception. They want us to trust them. Toward us, their efforts are wholly directed at perception management. Whatever they’re doing is packaged so that it sounds good to clients. No fund company will tran...
by Regal 56
Sun May 09, 2021 9:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Hired College Friend
Replies: 8
Views: 1388

Re: Hired College Friend

In my entire life, I’ve never asked a friend to divulge his or her net worth. So that’s a huge red flag. And your experience as employer is shining a light on why your friend hasn’t done well in finding a career. You naturally feel that you should honor your one year offer. But bear in mind, your offer implied a good faith effort from him. He’s not holding up his end of the deal.

He likely won’t see it this way.

As you suspect, this won’t end well. Prepare for it. For example, your warnings about his job performance should be documented.
by Regal 56
Sat Mar 13, 2021 6:28 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Emerging Markets worth it?
Replies: 75
Views: 10741

Re: Is Emerging Markets worth it?

Although it may be bad form to reference past performance, it seems germane to this discussion. Emerging markets currently are a long term dud: • 15 year return: 6.42% • 10 year return: 4.19% (Since Vanguard’s VEMAX doesn’t go back far enough, throughout this post I’ll use numbers for DFA’s DFEMX.) Fourteen years ago, however, Emerging Markets were all the rage. Here’s why: • 2007: 36.02% • 2006: 29.17% • 2005: 29.86% • 2004: 29.93% • 2003: 60.17% Wow! But there’s a plausible explanation. During these years, Emerging Markets likely benefited from being investing’s new kid on the block. So the returns were inflated by investors buying up the new hot sector. Once everyone jumped onto the bandwagon, Emerging Markets reverted to what they may t...
by Regal 56
Fri Jan 22, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Who or what has helped the most in your financial journey?
Replies: 121
Views: 9999

Re: Who or what has helped the most in your financial journey?

I grew up in a family that knew nothing of investing. So when I hit 50, I had not a dime in retirement savings. But I had the good luck of having one of my students, a retired doctor, gradually walk me out of my financial ignorance. He filled me in on index funds and Jack Bogle. That led me to William Bernstein, Charles Ellis, Burton Malkiel, Larry Swedroe, Jason Zweig, and the like. This forum has also been very helpful. At 50, I was looking down the barrel at spending my declining years in a cardboard box and eating squirrels. Today I have an IRA that last year earned almost as much as my annual salary, a state pension, and the real prospect of living better in retirement than I am now while working. Knowledge is a good thing. One would t...
by Regal 56
Sun Dec 27, 2020 9:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 10 year update from a Panicked Investor
Replies: 51
Views: 7922

Re: 10 year update from a Panicked Investor

Congrats.

A question for the OP. Ten years ago you panic-sold in response to a bearish talking head on CNBC. (By the way, you did avoid a pretty hefty downturn in 2011. Not saying you were prescient, but your timing wasn’t too bad.) Just curious, how did you weather February and March of 2020?
by Regal 56
Sat Dec 26, 2020 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Maxing out your IRA and other things to do on January 1st]
Replies: 172
Views: 17669

Re: [Maxing out your IRA and other things to do on January 1st]

On the first trading day, the maximum Roth contribution limit exits my checking account and enters my IRA. That’ll get 2021 off to a good start.

Just an observation. 2020 was an abysmal year, yet the stock market rolled merrily along. That tells us something primal, specifically in the area of decoupling.
by Regal 56
Fri Dec 25, 2020 10:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs is coming to the everyday people
Replies: 58
Views: 9017

Re: Goldman Sachs is coming to the everyday people

How egalitarian of them. Now anyone can be a muppet.
by Regal 56
Sun Oct 11, 2020 10:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 10870

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

This is why my recommendation is for people to build an index fund nest egg for securing a base level of retirement, before engaging in optional speculative activities with disposable income, should they feel inclined. The consequences of failure in individual stocks are much less severe if one has a solid base of Index Funds as fallback. Bingo! When someone posits a risky investing strategy, here’s a question they often gloss over: Can I afford to fail? Higher risk is okay for things in which the price of failure is low. If I put $1,000 on red at a roulette wheel, losing won’t ruin me. I can bounce back from the loss. But in retirement investing, I’m contemplating whether I’ll be able to pay my bills when I can no longer earn a paycheck. ...
by Regal 56
Sat Oct 10, 2020 10:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Active" Index investing vs. "Passive" Index investing
Replies: 197
Views: 10870

Re: "Active" investing vs. "Passive" investing

GoldenGoose wrote:What I find interesting in this thought excercise is the risk adverse nature of this board. Everyone who chimed in always has the specter of failure. If picking individual companies is impossible, then how has Buffett been doing it? No one on this board has answered this question. If he was a nobody posting on this board and talk about his successes in picking stocks/companies, I guess everyone would be saying "it was just dumb luck".
You’re citing an outlier and implying you could do as well. You overlook the huge number of committed investors who never replicate Buffett’s success.

I’m a musician. I could listen to Mozart and believe that I could do as well. But I’m more likely to fall short of Salieri.
by Regal 56
Sat Oct 10, 2020 7:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 23890

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

I don’t think we are rare. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/30/nearly-1-in-4-millennials-report-having-100000-or-more-in-savings.html The article says 24% of millennials have $100,000 in savings. That means 76% don’t. While 24% may not qualify as rare, it doesn't suggest something is common. Also, bear in mind that this article was published in January. In Spring of 2020, unemployment skyrocketed. So the 24% figure cited in the article may no longer be accurate. Finally, let’s not overlook this quote from the article: “Yet millennials who haven’t been able to fully participate in the economic growth can feel as though they’re falling behind. About 51% of millennials surveyed by Bank of America say their overall financial situation is lagging c...
by Regal 56
Fri Oct 09, 2020 11:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?
Replies: 186
Views: 23890

Re: How long after starting investing, did you start to be happy about the power of compounding?

I'm guessing the question is basically a "when will i see the fruits of my patience" type of question that will hopefully encourage us to persevere through the lean times (when we don't yet observe compounding.) I'm curious if there are steps we can take to shorten the time so that we observe the gains earlier (or clearer). A lot of responses in this thread say it takes about ten years before we’re doing our happy dance. For me, that hits the nail on the head. This likely is why so many people never get started with serious investing. In the beginning, it feels laughably paltry. Particularly for those of modest means, it takes so damn long before the figures look impressive. And the inevitable downturns in those first ten years c...
by Regal 56
Wed May 06, 2020 8:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why do investors care when the market goes down?
Replies: 47
Views: 4885

Re: Why do investors care when the market goes down?

We have seen time and time again after large crashes there are even bigger recoveries. Why do investors care so much when the market goes down? It’s a perfectly normal reaction. We see it in our everyday lives. For example, why is anyone scared during a roller coaster ride? We know we’ll get to the bottom safely. Yet many of us scream our heads off during the ride. So if we’re frightened by a situation where the result is certain, then why wouldn’t we be nervous during an event where a positive outcome isn’t guaranteed? A market crash is no small thing. We depend on our investments to get us through life. Yes, we know the market almost certainly will go back up. Historically in the United States, it always has. (Eventually.) Historically, ...
by Regal 56
Fri Jan 24, 2020 7:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?
Replies: 113
Views: 7582

Re: How Did 2001-2002 and 2007-2008 Influence Your Investing Philosophy? Or Did It?

The 2007-2008 crash showed me that, in the accumulation stage, a precipitous market drop didn’t hurt me so much. (This is a strictly self-centered view—obviously the crash hurt a lot of people.) I stayed the course and kept maxing out my IRA contributions. I didn’t enjoy it, but I didn’t freak out. It also taught me what long term investing really is. When one reads about investing, one often encounters a chart representing hypothetical portfolio growth over a period of decades. In the early years of this chart, the growth line is only slightly upward—indeed, it looks almost flat. But as the years go by, the line trends increasingly upward, until it’s closer to vertical than flat. The takeaway lesson is that, in the early years of investing...
by Regal 56
Sun Jul 21, 2019 12:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones trap
Replies: 91
Views: 17407

Re: Edward Jones trap

One tactic is to bring up a compound interest tool and show them what $500 a month invested at 8% a year vs 6.5% a year for 40 years. Obviously asset allocation and actual returns of the indexes are variable, but this is a very clear, concise, 30 second way to show how active managers fleece their clients (vs indexing at less than 7 bps for the average portfolio). Fees take out 33% of the portfolio. For high earners the numbers are simply staggering. One can object that this is an artificial construct, where two different fictitious investments earn (improbably) the exact same return, and the only difference is the fees. And it really doesn’t refute the raison d’être of higher fees: higher fees equal higher returns. All you’re saying is th...
by Regal 56
Tue Mar 24, 2015 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I invest my emergency fund?
Replies: 157
Views: 35037

Re: Should I invest my emergency fund?

I keep two separate emergency funds: one small and one large. The smaller fund is for the unplanned but inevitable stuff that crops up during the year. A leaky roof, car repairs, expensive dental work, minor medical emergency—things that, though they’re expensive, won’t financially destroy me. For this, I try to keep between $3,000 to $5,000 in my checking account at all times. This is money I don’t invest, because it’s likely I’ll need it during the year. The larger emergency fund is my “catastrophe fund.” This is for more unlikely events. Job loss, major medical emergency—things that, if they happen, would be a major financial disruption. Over the last five years, I haven’t withdrawn from this fund. It’s my fund of last resort. So while i...
by Regal 56
Wed Feb 18, 2015 9:33 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Advice to Mother/Father In Law
Replies: 16
Views: 2201

Re: Investing Advice to Mother/Father In Law

Devil's Advocate wrote:The broker said that she has made "18-20%" and that it's not unusual to average 10-12% per year.
Actually, none of that may be false. For example, my own annualized gain for the last five years is over 10%. And I made 30% in 2009, when anyone with a pulse could’ve made 30%. Of course none of that makes me an investing guru. The problem is that people who know nothing about investing can easily be seduced by the upside of investing in the stock market. Particularly when they’re having it pitched to them by experienced salesmen.

If you want your parents to think twice before leaping into the embrace of this broker, just remind them of Bernie Madoff and his consistent 10-12% annual returns. That might do the trick.
by Regal 56
Wed Jan 28, 2015 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mutual fund companies do you use?
Replies: 63
Views: 6646

Re: What mutual fund companies do you use?

For me, it came down to a choice between T. Rowe Price or Dodge & Cox. I went with the former. I could pretend it was a carefully researched and thoroughly rational decision. But honestly, it probably was an emotional choice. T. Rowe Price just felt right. My decision was at least in part due to T. Rowe Price’s clean reputation. Fast forward to today, I recently learned that T. Rowe Price paid a $40,000 fine for failure to deliver mutual fund prospectuses in a timely manner. Nothing horrible, but irksome. Further, in the past few years they’ve started new funds I find of questionable value. So if I had the same choice to make today, these niggling annoyances may have tipped me toward Dodge & Cox. Some of us are less rational than we...
by Regal 56
Mon Jan 19, 2015 7:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation
Replies: 56
Views: 9631

Re: Poll: Your Max. REIT Allocation

To make matters simple, I allocate equally between 7 funds. According to my calculator, I should have 14.2857148571429% allocated to my real estate fund. After rebalancing at the beginning of 2015, I was roughly there. Right now, it’s at 15.74%. Just keeps going up, as it did in 2014. So maybe it’ll need another sell-off at the end of this year.

Since it lagged in 2013, I suppose it was due. Every dog has its day.
by Regal 56
Sun Jan 11, 2015 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?
Replies: 11037
Views: 2066482

Re: What Movie Have You Recently Watched?

nisiprius wrote:I still think the Pink Elephants sequence from Dumbo is simply astonishing. I first saw it when I was five years old and, uh, it holds up six decades later. Not only the animation, but the song itself.
Walt Disney had a lurid bent for conjuring nightmares and putting them into children’s movies.
Is there a name for the metrical and musical device, that interrupted flow of meter?
Maybe the word you’re looking for is “syncopation.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQPcup4sbAE
by Regal 56
Sat Jan 10, 2015 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the international portion of your portfolio and why?
Replies: 140
Views: 22132

Re: What is the international portion of your portfolio and

60% domestic
40% international

Probably could go lower on international, since domestic companies do so much business overseas. And there may be some recency bias in my allocation—it wasn’t long ago that foreign stocks were going gangbusters. Of course, last year was bad for foreign stocks. But it is what it is. Seems silly to lower my allocation to international now, as currently that’s where the better valuations apparently are. Then again, Europe once more seems to be circling the drain. Indecision is an awful thing. Or maybe it isn’t.

Oh what the hell. In for a penny, in for a £. I’ll sit tight.