Search found 808 matches

by rmelvey
Mon Jul 13, 2020 4:30 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: hyper inflation hedges
Replies: 54
Views: 2845

Re: hyper inflation hedges

Gold is the obvious answer, with maybe a small % in bitcoin (something like 1% of portfolio). Not sure why you are writing off gold because it went down in the 80s. That's when inflation rate started going down and stocks/bonds started going up in value. If you are looking for a hedge that always go...
by rmelvey
Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 308
Views: 16946

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

Bitcoin is still not truly integrated with the rest of the financial markets, so by owning it you are beta testing a new asset class. I wouldn't recommend it to people unless they like the idea of being involved in testing a new financial system / asset. I think the biggest next step will be an ETF...
by rmelvey
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 308
Views: 16946

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

I view bitcoin as a disruptor of physical gold. The average boglehead doesn't like gold, so Bitcoin doesn't really appeal to them. For me personally, I like have having gold in conjunction with nominal bonds. I also like having bitcoin because it has some properties of gold, but with much more specu...
by rmelvey
Sun May 17, 2020 6:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?
Replies: 62
Views: 5885

Re: Rent is increased by 6%, negotiation tips?

I would counter with asking for a 10% reduction in rent. They should be cutting your rent not raising it. They are being squeezed financially and are trying to have you make up for it. If you leave they are in an even worse financial position so you have leverage over them. +6% is pretty egregious g...
by rmelvey
Thu Apr 23, 2020 11:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...
Replies: 36
Views: 2132

Re: Leaning towards EE Bond Purchase...

I used to have EE bond and I-bonds but dumped them because i really dislike Treasury direct after a lock out experience from them that took forever to resolve. I'm back purchasing more now because the spread between the market and the EE bond is worth the head ache. In terms of returns, think of it ...
by rmelvey
Wed Apr 15, 2020 1:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)
Replies: 786
Views: 179657

Re: Harry Browne Permanent Portfolio Discussion (Cont'd)

If the long end of the curve is too scary, you can still get a PP like portfolio by replacing the cash/LTT with intermediate term bonds. So you would do something like 60% 10 Year Treasury, 20% Gold, 20% Stocks. Also keep in mind that you can use EE bonds which are essentially a 20 year zero coupon ...
by rmelvey
Fri Apr 10, 2020 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?
Replies: 29
Views: 1880

Re: With the govt forcing interest rates near 0, why bother with bonds anymore?

I'm surprised Ally is still giving 1.5%. Hopefully it stays that high but at that rate savings accounts seem like a better deal than most bonds. For now my fixed income allocation is just cash at Ally and I-Bonds/EE bonds.
by rmelvey
Fri Apr 10, 2020 9:47 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Would you quit your job without another job now?
Replies: 34
Views: 2609

Re: Would you quit your job without another job now?

Does she want to keep this job as a reference? Is it possible for her to just start acting on her own terms and if the company doesn't like it then let them do what they need to do? She might have more leverage than she realizes.
by rmelvey
Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio Margin
Replies: 21
Views: 1335

Re: Portfolio Margin

I think the key issue/problem with margin usage is that you need the discipline to sell down rigorously and quickly when the market is dropping (even modestly). i.e. Let's say you start with $100K in capital and add $100K in margin borrowing. So, gross exposure $200K. Margin is 50% of the gross. Sa...
by rmelvey
Mon Mar 23, 2020 6:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce
Replies: 256
Views: 22320

Re: Selling 100% stocks on a bounce

There are many others who are attempting to do the exact same thing, which is why a bounce may not happen (at least not before more drops, and then a long road to recovery over many years). Jack Bogle never recommended 100% stocks, and he even has talked about how during extreme crashes sometimes yo...
by rmelvey
Thu Mar 19, 2020 5:34 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?
Replies: 98
Views: 6441

Re: When will S&P 500 go back to 3386 ?

2025. I think we are in for a rough road ahead with large increases in unemployment, corporate and household balance sheets both underwater and with reduced income for both.
by rmelvey
Sun Mar 15, 2020 8:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?
Replies: 158
Views: 14452

Re: So.... is this really "it"? Is this what we needed to mentally prepare for?

What you need to mentally prepare for is that you think this is it, but then it keeps going down over multiple years :D

So no this is not it.
by rmelvey
Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Futures Trading
Replies: 25
Views: 1980

Re: Futures Trading

Interactive Brokers has been fine for me after getting used to the UI. It can be hard to find the tickers you are looking for but once you know what you want to trade it's pretty easy.
by rmelvey
Tue Mar 03, 2020 8:47 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Study CFA just for personal investment and portfolio management knowledge
Replies: 55
Views: 4285

Re: Study CFA just for personal investment and portfolio management knowledge

I am a CFA holder, and my portfolio is still dead simple. 100% US equities right now. CFA has value, but I wouldn't expect it to give you a radically different result than just reading the wiki and following Bogle principles.
by rmelvey
Thu Feb 06, 2020 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Well, I am market timing due to coronavirus... Wish me luck.
Replies: 1229
Views: 110212

Re: Well, I am market timing... Wish me luck.

Bull market ahead confirmed. Thanks OP :mrgreen: :beer
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 31, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Budget tracking with CC "float"
Replies: 19
Views: 1104

Re: Budget tracking with CC "float"

I keep track of both. I track expenses as they accrue to get a true sense of my spending, and I track payment dates/outflows for managing my cashflow. I use a lot of 0% interest credits, so tracking both is very important to get the full picture.
by rmelvey
Fri Aug 30, 2019 5:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young
Replies: 1036
Views: 97570

Re: Lifecycle Investing - Leveraging when young

Credit cards were mentioned earlier as a possible borrowing method. Obviously, they have high interest, but I've been thinking about one method around this. Many cards have large sign-up bonuses (Chase gives $750 when spending $3,000 on the Sapphire Reserve) in the 10-30% range. If you couple this ...
by rmelvey
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?
Replies: 46
Views: 3841

Re: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?

I've been long bitcoin since around $4k. It's not for the faint of heart... Proceed with caution and only buy what you can afford to lose, and then (ironically enough) apply all of boglehead principles of staying the course, ignoring the noise, and not timing the market. :wink:
by rmelvey
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA
Replies: 14
Views: 504

Re: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA

I ignore unvested RSUs for asset allocation purposes, then as soon as they vest I sell them and allocate those funds. Anything else is too confusing. Would you count future salary income as a bond? Theoretically you could make an argument for that but I don't think I could ever stick with something ...
by rmelvey
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
Replies: 43
Views: 4762

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns

I stopped obsessing over the idea of 'active' or 'passive' a long time ago. It doesn't matter except for Boglehead purity points. With that said, I consider factor investing just a lazy/mechanical form of active management that is over intellectualized. You can put anything you want in a linear regr...
by rmelvey
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 142
Views: 16582

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I know it's not the "right" thing to do but I have had all of my equity exposure in the US for years. I sleep better and have had better performance :happy
by rmelvey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?
Replies: 9
Views: 757

Re: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?

Curious for the responses on this. The only thing I have been able to find is credit cards. Find cards with good signing bonuses and 0% interest, put all of your regular spend on the credit card and make minimum payment during 0% period, invest the money you would have had to pay out of pocket for y...
by rmelvey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?
Replies: 14
Views: 1229

Re: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?

Given that we are already at full employment and with a strong economy, I think a war could cause some upwards pressure on inflation. Not to mention that it would likely be a war that destabilized the oil market. Wars are only really "good" for an economy if you are selling weapons to other countrie...
by rmelvey
Wed May 22, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Inexpensive way to gain weight
Replies: 54
Views: 2955

Re: Inexpensive way to gain weight

I really like homemade yogurt, eaten in massive quantities. You can pack in a lot of calories for a low cost and you still feel great after eating it due to the probiotics and high amounts of protein. It tastes way better than store bought yogurt so its not even about saving money for me but its a n...
by rmelvey
Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a novel concept or a stupid one?
Replies: 18
Views: 1534

Re: Is this a novel concept or a stupid one?

I would just hold on them and count them as part of you stock allocation.
by rmelvey
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?
Replies: 15
Views: 1248

Re: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?

The 2x, 3x, ETFs are the easiest way to get more exposure to equities. Your only other alternatives would be a margin account at interactive brokers, rolling futures contracts (annoying, easy to fall into a behavioral trap), or using options. If I needed leverage in a retirement account I would lean...
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Staying in Brooklyn- Recommendations
Replies: 18
Views: 1208

Re: Staying in Brooklyn- Recommendations

I live in Manhattan but want to move to Brooklyn. Here are some nice neighborhoods. Brooklyn Heights - Beautiful brownstones and tree lined streets. Has been a nice area for a long time. Boereum Hill - Nice mixture of being laid back (for NYC mind you) but still with plenty to do. Has been a nice ar...
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 6417

Re: Gold ETF

If you are going to hold gold, another strategy to consider is to have a 'core' position in physical gold (1 oz American Eagles are easy to buy and sell) and then do your rebalancing using gold ETFs. This hybrid strategy gives you a lot of flexibility. While physical gold in the form of eagles has m...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 4663
Views: 905878

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

The purchase APRs don't have a fee, but yes the balance transfers do. However, the balance transfers are still a good deal if you use the proceeds to invest in risk assets. So when it comes to do a balance transfer you pay 3% and its very common to get 18 months, but let's say you only do 17 months...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 4663
Views: 905878

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Anyone else taking advantage of 0% APRs for purchases / balance transfers? I am putting all my spend on these types of cards and investing the proceeds.I plan to keep rolling this debt over at 0%. Of course you need to have a big enough portfolio so that you can always pay off the balance. This is ...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 4663
Views: 905878

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Anyone else taking advantage of 0% APRs for purchases / balance transfers? I am putting all my spend on these types of cards and investing the proceeds.I plan to keep rolling this debt over at 0%. Of course you need to have a big enough portfolio so that you can always pay off the balance. This is w...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 178
Views: 19225

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

A while back I started out doing basically what is being proposed here. Once you take a position in treasury futures, though, the historical sharpe ratio of short term treasuries has been substantially better than the 10 year treasuries... so if you're going to use leverage anyways, you might as we...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 178
Views: 19225

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

I have had interest in using futures for a passive buy and hold stock/treasury/gold portfolio because of the cheap leverage, but I keep talking myself out of it because of the taxes. With futures you have to pay tax each year on your P&L marked to market, so you completely give up the tax deferral ...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 178
Views: 19225

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

I have had interest in using futures for a passive buy and hold stock/treasury/gold portfolio because of the cheap leverage, but I keep talking myself out of it because of the taxes. With futures you have to pay tax each year on your P&L marked to market, so you completely give up the tax deferral b...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing actually help a company ?
Replies: 46
Views: 3294

Re: Does investing actually help a company ?

Even though the cash doesn't directly work its way into the companies balance sheet, buying stock on the secondary market does help increase the price of the shares, which can make raising debt/equity in the future easier for the company.
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

... TLDR - if you think the appeal of this strategy isn't driven by the outstanding performance of bonds over the past 30 years, which is highly unreliable going forward, then you're simply fooling yourself. And the rest of y'all need to stop reinvesting your retirement portfolios into 3x levered E...
by rmelvey
Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side gig ideas with minimal requirements?
Replies: 124
Views: 10437

Re: Side gig ideas with minimal requirements?

Are you already churning credit card bonuses? That can be an extra $1k per year when you are just starting out. Not a ton but very easy for the amount of work involved.
by rmelvey
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get money out of the house for aging parent
Replies: 8
Views: 1179

Re: How to get money out of the house for aging parent

Wonder if he could look into selling the house and then renting it back from a buyer? So... interesting solution. Since the father is ademant about moving... and getting him to move out at this point may be difficult. I am wondering if it is possible to have his son buy the house and rent it back t...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years
Replies: 57
Views: 4221

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years

You guys got it all backwards. We are seeing the emergence of the growth premium! :wink:
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get money out of the house for aging parent
Replies: 8
Views: 1179

Re: How to get money out of the house for aging parent

Wonder if he could look into selling the house and then renting it back from a buyer?
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Gold is a good hedge for inflation shocks, not so much for grinding, slowly increasing, "normal" inflation. Since 1982 inflation has averaged 2.7% / year. I am among those who believe that Paul Volker basically "solved" the problem of inflation 40 years ago. There is a reason the 3-fund portfolio d...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

The entire premise of my strategy rests upon the idea that when one asset collapses, the other asset rises sharply. If you don’t believe this will happen reliably going forward, you should not undertake this strategy. I am comfortable on this point, both because of historical returns and the underl...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

I think that the use of leverage to create a more efficient portfolio is an interesting one. Here's a link to PV that looks at three portfolios: 25% 3x leverage S&P and 75% Inter US Treas 37.5% 2x leverage S&P and 62.5% Inter US Treas 75% S&P and 25% Inter US Treas https://www.portfoliovisualizer.c...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

There’s nothing like actually trading an idea to see how it works, instead of just backtesting how you imagine it might go. As with any long term, multi-decade experiment, you only live once so you’re either in the experimental group or the control group. Good luck! It feels to me that this strateg...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 3353
Views: 414334

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Have you thought about using futures instead of ETFs? You would likely have lower overall expenses and your leverage doesn't reset daily. Definitely takes more of a careful eye to manage though, rolling your contracts each month.
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX - Why so popular? [Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund]
Replies: 23
Views: 5394

Re: VMMXX - Why so popular?

Holding more than the FDIC limit in ally is risky. VMMXX you can put in as much as you want. Funds like VMMXX also immediately follow market changes in interest rates, whereas banks like Ally will raise rates with a slight lag.

Both are fine options.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good reasons for selling an S&P 500 index fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1814

Re: Good reasons for selling an S&P 500 index fund

When i have extra money I buy, when I need money I sell. Keeps things simple for me.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification ideas
Replies: 97
Views: 5882

Re: Diversification ideas

If you want to go broader just start thinking about other liquid asset classes that aren't reflected in the 3 fund. Foreign hedged bonds (you can put a decent weighting here as this is a big asset class) Emerging Market USD Bonds (no more than 5% of portfolio) High yield Bonds (no more than 5% of po...
by rmelvey
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 477
Views: 61522

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

Hiring a biweekly cleaner has made a big difference. If you think about it as a housing expense it's not that bad. Renting a slightly a cheaper space that is always spotless looks better than a more expensive apartment that is dirty.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand why I need bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1557

Re: Help me understand why I need bonds

You are right that a strict boglehead would sell both stocks and bonds. But you are also overlooking that the 20% in bonds should have muted the declines by around 20%. That might not seem like a lot but then of course your scenario had only 20% in bonds. If you had 50% in bonds then the downturn wo...