Search found 753 matches

by rmelvey
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 2025

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

Lots of people invest/trade using borrowed money. If the market goes up with no corrections for a long period, more and more people feel comfortable investing with more leverage. This is bad for the long term, because too much leverage can create a fragile financial system. Corrections such as this ...
by rmelvey
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Sell Our RSU Stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 522

Re: Should We Sell Our RSU Stocks?

I sell my RSUs are soon as they vest, treating them like a variable cash bonus. That money usually ends up in an index fund. I don't like holding too much of any one stock, especially of my employer.
by rmelvey
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of palmettos [Palmetto bugs]
Replies: 15
Views: 2246

Re: How to get rid of..........

I live in NYC so know a bit about this :wink: Put a light dusting of boric acid (sounds scary, it's just a white powder) in all of the nooks and crannies where they like to hide. It will keep killing them for years. I used to have a big problem with them in my apartment but now I go months without s...
by rmelvey
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6289

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

I cut my international allocation to 0% two years ago. Feels like I made the right choice although of course it is mostly luck.
by rmelvey
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Pre-market trading with Merrill Edge. Newbie mistake :(
Replies: 15
Views: 1505

Re: Pre-market trading with Merrill Edge. Newbie mistake :(

A stop loss order outside of market hours would be a really bad idea. There is very little liquidity and someone could very easily take advantage of you, causing the order to get triggered when under normal conditions the price wouldn't fall low enough to trigger. I think this is just a rookie mista...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 40
Views: 4616

Re: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?

This is the kind of environment that is the achilles heel of risk parity portfolios. The only place to hide when the Fed is tightening is in short term high quality debt. This is the lowest performing asset class in the long term though. Our whole financial system is premised on risk assets outperfo...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What did you buy today
Replies: 111
Views: 8495

Re: What did you buy today

Got lucky with some life event timing so I have a lot of cash on the sidelines right now. Bought some ITOT today. 8-)
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to adjust now if not leaving a legacy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1038

Re: What to adjust now if not leaving a legacy?

You could replace some of your bonds with SPIAs. They offer fixed income for life with a higher sustainable payout rate than a bond portfolio.
by rmelvey
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I move back to NYC with such high taxes? (State/City tax, Unincorporated Business Tax)
Replies: 110
Views: 9601

Re: How can I move back to NYC with such high taxes? (State/City tax, Unincorporated Business Tax)

New York is one of the places where you feel crazy paying such high rent/taxes, but as soon as you leave you realize there is no substitute. If you want to live this life you need to pay the price. Try to just enjoy it. Money is a tool to help you live the life you want.
by rmelvey
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 5498

Re: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy

I would try to figure out what % of your portfolio is too much to have in XRP (or crypto) and if it appreciates a lot and breaches that level then you sell down to get it back under target. That is the most unemotional way to handle it. Basically treat it similar to rebalancing any other asset in yo...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the experts say about Bitcoins?
Replies: 114
Views: 9395

Re: What the experts say about Bitcoins?

Total crypto market cap is closing in on a trillion. At this point refusing to own any is a form of active management 8-) Does anyone else see the irony in praising the wisdom of the markets when it comes to stock market indexing, but calling nearly a trillion dollars of market value in crypto a bi...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the experts say about Bitcoins?
Replies: 114
Views: 9395

Re: What the experts say about Bitcoins?

Total crypto market cap is closing in on a trillion. At this point refusing to own any is a form of active management 8-) Does anyone else see the irony in praising the wisdom of the markets when it comes to stock market indexing, but calling nearly a trillion dollars of market value in crypto a big...
by rmelvey
Mon Dec 18, 2017 7:51 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Help Me [Recover] My Bitcoin!
Replies: 93
Views: 13567

Re: Help Me Cash Out My Bitcoin!

This stuff happens all the time. I'm sorry for your loss. At least it wasn't more.
by rmelvey
Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I call the authorities to report a potential ponzi scheme (involving Bitconnect)?
Replies: 34
Views: 4381

Re: Should I call the authorities to report a potential ponzi scheme (involving Bitconnect)?

I am a big fan of cryptocurrency, but bitconnect is 100% a ponzi scheme. I wouldn't touch it with a ten foot pole and the people who push it should be ashamed of themselves.
by rmelvey
Thu Dec 14, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Utilizing Intro 0% APR Credit Card offers the right way
Replies: 9
Views: 824

Re: Utilizing Intro 0% APR Credit Card offers the right way

I just treat it as more money to have invested. It's kind of like buying on margin except with lower interest and no margin calls. Yes this is risky, but I like taking advantage. I have a card close to the limit, and my credit score is still excellent.
by rmelvey
Mon Dec 11, 2017 10:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: So bought Litecoin@ $150...
Replies: 14
Views: 3146

Re: So bought Litecoin@ $150...

Nice. I've been meaning to buy a small amount of litecoin but never got around to it :|

I'm excited for Bitcoin and Litecoin atomic swaps once lightning network gets enabled on both.
by rmelvey
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cloud mining and holding bitcoin
Replies: 8
Views: 1364

Re: Cloud mining and holding bitcoin

I don't like the cloud mining services. A lot of them are structured like a ponzi scheme. You are usually better off just buying and holding the crypto yourself.
by rmelvey
Mon Dec 11, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24900

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

Bitcoin is taking market share from gold and off shore banking, both of which are measured in the trillions of dollars. Since the bitcoin market is so small, when money comes in it has to bid up bitcoin to a very high price to entice sellers. However, there are lots of speculators with shaky hands, ...
by rmelvey
Sun Dec 10, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Windfall of 1.5 millions
Replies: 10
Views: 2616

Re: Windfall of 1.5 millions

Your returns will probably not beat inflation. 20% stocks and 80% bonds is a still a very low volatility portfolio that will probably outperform your plan over the long run. You could get a robo advisor to rebalance for you or use one of the vanguard lifestyle funds (or rebalance yourself for best t...
by rmelvey
Sun Dec 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 10713

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

I love this forum, but it's not a good place to discuss cryptocurrencies unfortunately. You would never own cryptocurrencies if you listened to the consensus here, so I don't think asking this forum for advice on it is going to bear much fruit. Well, this forum is for "investing advice inspired by ...
by rmelvey
Wed Dec 06, 2017 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?
Replies: 236
Views: 24900

Re: bitcoin - is there any real value here or is it a pure Ponzi scam?

I think there have been some people on the thread who have argued the merits of bitcoin. However, without going back to check, I reckon most claimed merits could apply to most cryptocurrencies anyone might decide to invent. All bitcoin has going for it is being first. That might count for a lot, if...
by rmelvey
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 29811

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Dec 05, 2017 3:45 pm
My family is more into dogs than cats. So if there is a Dogcoin I would probably be in on it. Kittencoin? Yeah, not going to happen. We just aren't cat people.
Dogecoin has been out for years. Market cap of around $285M
http://dogecoin.com/
by rmelvey
Wed Nov 29, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?
Replies: 149
Views: 18979

Re: A good friend has nearly $1M in BitCoin what do I tell him?

Maybe you should be taking advice from him rather than the other way around!
by rmelvey
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies
Replies: 112
Views: 10713

Re: Interesting ride so far - Crypto-curriencies

I love this forum, but it's not a good place to discuss cryptocurrencies unfortunately. You would never own cryptocurrencies if you listened to the consensus here, so I don't think asking this forum for advice on it is going to bear much fruit. I am personally a big believer in crypto currencies and...
by rmelvey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 5:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 4237

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

How about "it is showing all the characteristics of an asset bubble?" The area is very speculative, but bubbles usually involve wide participation and high market caps. Cryptocurrencies are still very clunky to use, limiting the field to enthusiasts right now. The entire cryptocurrency space only h...
by rmelvey
Wed Nov 15, 2017 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 4237

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

Just wondering if anyone has a good understanding of the significance of the 12 transactions per second thing announced about Bitcoin recently? Is it true? Does this mean Bitcoin can't scale? Can Bitcoin Cash scale? Properties and functions of money: 1. Medium of Exchange - must be widely accepted ...
by rmelvey
Sun Nov 12, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this? [Change stock allocation]
Replies: 10
Views: 1691

Re: Am I loopy for thinking about doing this?

I guess I don't understand why you would sell stocks then slowly buy them back, unless you were convinced the market was going to drop in the short term (which also wouldn't make sense to me). Is it because you like the idea of dollar cost averaging?
by rmelvey
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?
Replies: 28
Views: 4237

Re: Bitcoin: Significance of 12 transactions per second?

There is basically a civil war within the Bitcoin community right now. I don't think anyone can truly know how it will shake out. If you are participating in the crypto market the safest thing to do is own both coins in proportion to their market cap so that you are agnostic as to which side wins (s...
by rmelvey
Sat Nov 11, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)
Replies: 42
Views: 5389

Re: Buying bitcoin / Cryptocurrency to market cap (.3%)

I am overweight crypto relative to stocks/bonds, but within crypto I follow market cap weightings for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Bitcoin cash. Due to the network effects, crypto can be somewhat of a winner takes all set up. It's safer to have stakes in multiple so that you always own the winner, just li...
by rmelvey
Thu Nov 02, 2017 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20342

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

It will be very interesting to see how bitcoin volatility and correlation changes after the roll out of futures. Thus far, bitcoin hasn't been strongly linked with traditional markets with high volatility and near zero correlation to stocks/bonds/gold/everything! I think integration via futures mark...
by rmelvey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?
Replies: 10
Views: 1003

Re: Is the current cryptocurrency market a bubble in the making?

I think it's a bubble in the making. I just happen to think it's in the first inning so I'm still buying :P With the .com bubble if you bought early in the 90s you still made a killing even after the crash.
by rmelvey
Fri Oct 20, 2017 10:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is Bitcoin?
Replies: 263
Views: 43573

Re: What is Bitcoin?

Does anyone have the bad feeling that people are joining this site and others simply to pump up Bitcoin similar to penny stocks? The level of not only troll activity but extreme fanboyism is so far out there it remind me of the dot com run up. I don't think that's a fair characterization. I've been...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 19, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Life in AMT Hell (or, How I Learned to Keep Worrying and Hate the Exemption Phaseout)
Replies: 65
Views: 9862

Re: Life in AMT Hell (or, How I Learned to Keep Worrying and Hate the Exemption Phaseout)

Take a look at Michael Kitces' article here: https://www.kitces.com/blog/evaluating-exposure-to-the-alternative-minimum-tax-and-strategies-to-reduce-the-amt-bite/ It's from 2014 but he updates this periodically. There's a limited amount you can do but if you have any control over your income, you c...
by rmelvey
Wed Oct 18, 2017 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: bitcoin makes you rich
Replies: 49
Views: 6167

Re: anhybody buying bitcoin

I have been buying bitcoin this year. I will keep buying. It's always easy to say "I missed it" with any asset class, stocks included. This is not a recommendation for what others should do, this is just what I am doing with my money... The market is very hot and bubbly, but that doesn't mean when/i...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?
Replies: 42
Views: 4863

Re: 100% invested, all in, no cash- how do you do it?

I have 2 months of expenses in a checking account and the rest invested. I think that kind of set up is what most people mean when they say "100%" invested.
by rmelvey
Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Best weight loss resources?
Replies: 54
Views: 4060

Re: Best weight loss resources?

I've lost around 30 pounds year to date, now down to 140. Hoping for a little bit more before year end. I did it using an app called "lose it" and weighing myself every day. I did a very restricted calorie diet for the first two months, making sure that the only calories I ate were high in protein o...
by rmelvey
Tue Sep 19, 2017 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity
Replies: 51
Views: 3907

Re: Bitcoin AA - Just out of Curiousity

I am 98% US equities and 2% bitcoin (excluding a small cash position). I don't invest each paycheck, but I do have limit orders set so that if it drops a lot I will pick up more. 2% might not seem like a lot, but it's very common to see 20% price swings in a day. If bitcoin ever became more than 5% ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4389

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

I hope Satoshi Nakamoto is fabulously rich, enjoying his wealth, and has invested it in something like municipals or Treasuries. Satoshi Nakamoto hasn't spent any of his bitcoin earnings since January 2009. It is all still in bitcoin. Due to how bitcoin works, everyone would know if he spent it. It...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 9:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4389

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

By the way, does anybody know the status of the SEC's reconsideration of the Winklevoss "COIN" ETF? Big news in April 2017; but nothing has penetrated to my level of awareness since then. They are trying to get bitcoin futures first, because once there are futures it will be easier to get approval ...
by rmelvey
Mon Sep 18, 2017 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas
Replies: 40
Views: 4389

Re: Bitcoin Return and Investing Ideas

Apart from the spectacular returns, which are unlikely to repeat themselves to the same degree, the near zero correlation with stocks/bonds/commodities is very attractive. Integration with the traditional finance sector is very slow and so I predict the low correlations to remain for a long time. Lo...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 9:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8564

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Criminals are early adopters of new technology because they have to be. In the 80s drug dealers used beepers, and in the 90s car phones. Does that make the manufacturers of those products guilty? I'm not sure how you could be an index fund investor with your view of money and morality. You would be ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4968

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that ...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options
Replies: 44
Views: 4968

Re: Investing in a Low-Return World: Howard Marks' 6 options

Does anyone else find it ironic that people have been complaining about the low return environment for the last 8 years when we have seen huge returns in both stocks and bonds? I think it is far riskier to wait on the sidelines in hopes of a bargain that may never come. This is a form of risk that i...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]
Replies: 8
Views: 1505

Re: Trusting Bitcoin [How do I protect my private key?]

I bought a Trezor for storing my bitcoin/ethereum that I don't want to keep on the exchanges. It strikes the right balance between convenience and security. You never have to type in your private key because the signing of the transaction is happening on the trezor device. It is expensive at $120, b...
by rmelvey
Sat Sep 16, 2017 7:08 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8564

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

Regarding rebalancing, you can make a strong argument for making bitcoin part of a rebalancing program because of the high volatility. It is the best real life example I have seen for a Shannon's demon rebalancing scheme. You can harvest the high volatility by going 50% cash and 50% bitcoin and reba...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 3:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8564

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

I would like to know what people are using bitcoin for and what percentage of it is for criminal activity, but whatever percentage it is the authorities are not befuddled by it, they are using it against criminals. I think the mainstream audience is only now beginning to realize that bitcoin is not...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 15, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor
Replies: 49
Views: 4938

Re: Advice Badly Needed---Meeting with Financial Advisor

Northwestern Mutual is one of the worst in my eyes. Friend's don't let friends...
by rmelvey
Thu Sep 14, 2017 2:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure
Replies: 84
Views: 8564

Re: Bitcoin is dropping right now after a big Chinese exchange announces closure

If anything I'm impressed with how well the price has been holding up. The China news is big. My limit orders to buy have been triggering and I have another one down at $3,000. If you can't stomach 90% draw downs you have no business buying bitcoins and position sizing is key. No more than 5% of you...
by rmelvey
Wed Sep 13, 2017 12:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?
Replies: 313
Views: 23954

Re: Is it really Worth it to brown bag your lunch at work?

I have cut down on cooking because I am single so i find my groceries end up going bad. I never know if I am going to end up staying late for work so it's hard for me to meal plan during the week. Also cooking for one is not as efficient... Luckily NYC has tons of options for eating out, so i can al...
by rmelvey
Fri Sep 08, 2017 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?
Replies: 191
Views: 20342

Re: Bitcoin in 3-fund indexed portfolio?

This article is a little bit older, but a very thorough analysis on correlation coefficients with major asset classes.
https://www.signalplot.com/what-is-bitc ... al-assets/