Search found 791 matches

by rmelvey
Mon Jul 08, 2019 6:19 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?
Replies: 46
Views: 2785

Re: Anyone itching to dabble in crypto?

I've been long bitcoin since around $4k. It's not for the faint of heart... Proceed with caution and only buy what you can afford to lose, and then (ironically enough) apply all of boglehead principles of staying the course, ignoring the noise, and not timing the market. :wink:
by rmelvey
Wed Jul 03, 2019 1:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA
Replies: 14
Views: 373

Re: Unvested RSU Equity Exposure and AA

I ignore unvested RSUs for asset allocation purposes, then as soon as they vest I sell them and allocate those funds. Anything else is too confusing. Would you count future salary income as a bond? Theoretically you could make an argument for that but I don't think I could ever stick with something ...
by rmelvey
Wed Jun 26, 2019 8:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns
Replies: 43
Views: 3097

Re: Larry Swedroe: How Trading Costs Erode Factor Returns

I stopped obsessing over the idea of 'active' or 'passive' a long time ago. It doesn't matter except for Boglehead purity points. With that said, I consider factor investing just a lazy/mechanical form of active management that is over intellectualized. You can put anything you want in a linear regr...
by rmelvey
Tue Jun 18, 2019 12:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?
Replies: 110
Views: 10151

Re: Should I abandon the Total International Stock Index Fund for greener pastures?

I know it's not the "right" thing to do but I have had all of my equity exposure in the US for years. I sleep better and have had better performance :happy
by rmelvey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 1:15 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?
Replies: 9
Views: 691

Re: Any way other than real estate to leverage good income and credit?

Curious for the responses on this. The only thing I have been able to find is credit cards. Find cards with good signing bonuses and 0% interest, put all of your regular spend on the credit card and make minimum payment during 0% period, invest the money you would have had to pay out of pocket for y...
by rmelvey
Mon Jun 17, 2019 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?
Replies: 14
Views: 1080

Re: Would a war be bullish for bearish for stocks?

Given that we are already at full employment and with a strong economy, I think a war could cause some upwards pressure on inflation. Not to mention that it would likely be a war that destabilized the oil market. Wars are only really "good" for an economy if you are selling weapons to other countrie...
by rmelvey
Wed May 22, 2019 11:55 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Inexpensive way to gain weight
Replies: 54
Views: 2371

Re: Inexpensive way to gain weight

I really like homemade yogurt, eaten in massive quantities. You can pack in a lot of calories for a low cost and you still feel great after eating it due to the probiotics and high amounts of protein. It tastes way better than store bought yogurt so its not even about saving money for me but its a n...
by rmelvey
Fri Mar 29, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is this a novel concept or a stupid one?
Replies: 18
Views: 1415

Re: Is this a novel concept or a stupid one?

I would just hold on them and count them as part of you stock allocation.
by rmelvey
Wed Mar 13, 2019 6:07 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?
Replies: 12
Views: 760

Re: Can I emulate a riskier AA using leverage?

The 2x, 3x, ETFs are the easiest way to get more exposure to equities. Your only other alternatives would be a margin account at interactive brokers, rolling futures contracts (annoying, easy to fall into a behavioral trap), or using options. If I needed leverage in a retirement account I would lean...
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 26, 2019 5:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Staying in Brooklyn- Recommendations
Replies: 18
Views: 1039

Re: Staying in Brooklyn- Recommendations

I live in Manhattan but want to move to Brooklyn. Here are some nice neighborhoods. Brooklyn Heights - Beautiful brownstones and tree lined streets. Has been a nice area for a long time. Boereum Hill - Nice mixture of being laid back (for NYC mind you) but still with plenty to do. Has been a nice ar...
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 26, 2019 11:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold ETF
Replies: 35
Views: 5221

Re: Gold ETF

If you are going to hold gold, another strategy to consider is to have a 'core' position in physical gold (1 oz American Eagles are easy to buy and sell) and then do your rebalancing using gold ETFs. This hybrid strategy gives you a lot of flexibility. While physical gold in the form of eagles has m...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 12:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 3887
Views: 721451

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

The purchase APRs don't have a fee, but yes the balance transfers do. However, the balance transfers are still a good deal if you use the proceeds to invest in risk assets. So when it comes to do a balance transfer you pay 3% and its very common to get 18 months, but let's say you only do 17 months...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 3887
Views: 721451

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Anyone else taking advantage of 0% APRs for purchases / balance transfers? I am putting all my spend on these types of cards and investing the proceeds.I plan to keep rolling this debt over at 0%. Of course you need to have a big enough portfolio so that you can always pay off the balance. This is ...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?
Replies: 3887
Views: 721451

Re: What's Your Credit Card Rewards Strategy?

Anyone else taking advantage of 0% APRs for purchases / balance transfers? I am putting all my spend on these types of cards and investing the proceeds.I plan to keep rolling this debt over at 0%. Of course you need to have a big enough portfolio so that you can always pay off the balance. This is w...
by rmelvey
Sat Feb 23, 2019 3:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 123
Views: 8285

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

A while back I started out doing basically what is being proposed here. Once you take a position in treasury futures, though, the historical sharpe ratio of short term treasuries has been substantially better than the 10 year treasuries... so if you're going to use leverage anyways, you might as we...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 123
Views: 8285

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

I have had interest in using futures for a passive buy and hold stock/treasury/gold portfolio because of the cheap leverage, but I keep talking myself out of it because of the taxes. With futures you have to pay tax each year on your P&L marked to market, so you completely give up the tax deferral ...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity
Replies: 123
Views: 8285

Re: Understanding using treasury futures for leverage to implement risk parity

I have had interest in using futures for a passive buy and hold stock/treasury/gold portfolio because of the cheap leverage, but I keep talking myself out of it because of the taxes. With futures you have to pay tax each year on your P&L marked to market, so you completely give up the tax deferral b...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does investing actually help a company ?
Replies: 46
Views: 3068

Re: Does investing actually help a company ?

Even though the cash doesn't directly work its way into the companies balance sheet, buying stock on the secondary market does help increase the price of the shares, which can make raising debt/equity in the future easier for the company.
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 22, 2019 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]

... TLDR - if you think the appeal of this strategy isn't driven by the outstanding performance of bonds over the past 30 years, which is highly unreliable going forward, then you're simply fooling yourself. And the rest of y'all need to stop reinvesting your retirement portfolios into 3x levered E...
by rmelvey
Thu Feb 21, 2019 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Side gig ideas with minimal requirements?
Replies: 124
Views: 9256

Re: Side gig ideas with minimal requirements?

Are you already churning credit card bonuses? That can be an extra $1k per year when you are just starting out. Not a ton but very easy for the amount of work involved.
by rmelvey
Thu Feb 21, 2019 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get money out of the house for aging parent
Replies: 8
Views: 1099

Re: How to get money out of the house for aging parent

Wonder if he could look into selling the house and then renting it back from a buyer? So... interesting solution. Since the father is ademant about moving... and getting him to move out at this point may be difficult. I am wondering if it is possible to have his son buy the house and rent it back t...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 20, 2019 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years
Replies: 57
Views: 3978

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Lags For 15 Years

You guys got it all backwards. We are seeing the emergence of the growth premium! :wink:
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 19, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to get money out of the house for aging parent
Replies: 8
Views: 1099

Re: How to get money out of the house for aging parent

Wonder if he could look into selling the house and then renting it back from a buyer?
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 08, 2019 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Gold is a good hedge for inflation shocks, not so much for grinding, slowly increasing, "normal" inflation. Since 1982 inflation has averaged 2.7% / year. I am among those who believe that Paul Volker basically "solved" the problem of inflation 40 years ago. There is a reason the 3-fund portfolio d...
by rmelvey
Fri Feb 08, 2019 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

The entire premise of my strategy rests upon the idea that when one asset collapses, the other asset rises sharply. If you don’t believe this will happen reliably going forward, you should not undertake this strategy. I am comfortable on this point, both because of historical returns and the underl...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

I think that the use of leverage to create a more efficient portfolio is an interesting one. Here's a link to PV that looks at three portfolios: 25% 3x leverage S&P and 75% Inter US Treas 37.5% 2x leverage S&P and 62.5% Inter US Treas 75% S&P and 25% Inter US Treas https://www.portfoliovisualizer.c...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 10:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

There’s nothing like actually trading an idea to see how it works, instead of just backtesting how you imagine it might go. As with any long term, multi-decade experiment, you only live once so you’re either in the experimental group or the control group. Good luck! It feels to me that this strateg...
by rmelvey
Wed Feb 06, 2019 7:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [risk parity strategy using 3x leveraged ETFs]
Replies: 2562
Views: 196607

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure [3x leveraged ETF strategy]

Have you thought about using futures instead of ETFs? You would likely have lower overall expenses and your leverage doesn't reset daily. Definitely takes more of a careful eye to manage though, rolling your contracts each month.
by rmelvey
Tue Feb 05, 2019 7:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX - Why so popular? [Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund]
Replies: 23
Views: 3367

Re: VMMXX - Why so popular?

Holding more than the FDIC limit in ally is risky. VMMXX you can put in as much as you want. Funds like VMMXX also immediately follow market changes in interest rates, whereas banks like Ally will raise rates with a slight lag.

Both are fine options.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 29, 2019 5:02 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good reasons for selling an S&P 500 index fund
Replies: 12
Views: 1680

Re: Good reasons for selling an S&P 500 index fund

When i have extra money I buy, when I need money I sell. Keeps things simple for me.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 29, 2019 11:37 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification ideas
Replies: 97
Views: 5446

Re: Diversification ideas

If you want to go broader just start thinking about other liquid asset classes that aren't reflected in the 3 fund. Foreign hedged bonds (you can put a decent weighting here as this is a big asset class) Emerging Market USD Bonds (no more than 5% of portfolio) High yield Bonds (no more than 5% of po...
by rmelvey
Thu Jan 24, 2019 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What lifestyle creep made you happier?
Replies: 412
Views: 44162

Re: What lifestyle creep made you happier?

Hiring a biweekly cleaner has made a big difference. If you think about it as a housing expense it's not that bad. Renting a slightly a cheaper space that is always spotless looks better than a more expensive apartment that is dirty.
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 22, 2019 3:13 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand why I need bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1494

Re: Help me understand why I need bonds

You are right that a strict boglehead would sell both stocks and bonds. But you are also overlooking that the 20% in bonds should have muted the declines by around 20%. That might not seem like a lot but then of course your scenario had only 20% in bonds. If you had 50% in bonds then the downturn wo...
by rmelvey
Tue Jan 22, 2019 2:40 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Saving for 1-2 years rather than for a lifetime
Replies: 75
Views: 6571

Re: Saving for 1-2 years rather than for a lifetime

I think most peoples goal on this forum is to retire. You can't retire unless you never save for retirement so OP's premise is kind of a non-starter. Secondly, there is compound interest. Saving money now is better than saving money later because it should grow, allowing you to live more comfortably...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 16, 2019 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Bogle has died at age 89
Replies: 856
Views: 52004

Re: John Bogle is dead at 89

Thank you Jack
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 16, 2019 11:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When would you stop being a Boglehead?
Replies: 95
Views: 7768

Re: When would you stop being a Boglehead?

If i was really rich I might consider buying and holding individual stocks, but I would basically be doing the same thing as the index. The difference is that I could do more surgical tax-loss harvesting, as well as only selling the stocks that have a capital loss so I would almost never pay capital...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 16, 2019 10:52 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???
Replies: 82
Views: 9019

Re: 100% in VTSAX - Is it crazy???

I have a bad habit of always comparing investments to the US equity market, when it does worse I am unhappy and when it does better I am happy. So holding almost all US equities actually helps me be more relaxed. Is this rational? No, but it could be worse!
by rmelvey
Mon Jan 14, 2019 2:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do futures really leverage exposure to?
Replies: 27
Views: 1871

Re: What do futures really leverage exposure to?

Think about it this way, institutional investor's can buy stocks on margin or buy futures contracts. Both are forms of leverage. You are making the argument that buying the futures contract only gives you volatility without the expected return, if that were true why would people buy them when they c...
by rmelvey
Thu Dec 06, 2018 5:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why are market corrections "healthy"?
Replies: 27
Views: 2210

Re: Why are market corrections "healthy"?

Lots of people invest/trade using borrowed money. If the market goes up with no corrections for a long period, more and more people feel comfortable investing with more leverage. This is bad for the long term, because too much leverage can create a fragile financial system. Corrections such as this ...
by rmelvey
Thu Dec 06, 2018 4:25 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should We Sell Our RSU Stocks?
Replies: 6
Views: 586

Re: Should We Sell Our RSU Stocks?

I sell my RSUs are soon as they vest, treating them like a variable cash bonus. That money usually ends up in an index fund. I don't like holding too much of any one stock, especially of my employer.
by rmelvey
Mon Nov 12, 2018 2:38 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How to get rid of palmettos [Palmetto bugs]
Replies: 15
Views: 2336

Re: How to get rid of..........

I live in NYC so know a bit about this :wink: Put a light dusting of boric acid (sounds scary, it's just a white powder) in all of the nooks and crannies where they like to hide. It will keep killing them for years. I used to have a big problem with them in my apartment but now I go months without s...
by rmelvey
Tue Oct 30, 2018 9:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]
Replies: 69
Views: 6626

Re: Anyone else feel giddy every time VXUS gets creamed? [Vanguard Total International]

I cut my international allocation to 0% two years ago. Feels like I made the right choice although of course it is mostly luck.
by rmelvey
Wed Oct 24, 2018 3:04 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Pre-market trading with Merrill Edge. Newbie mistake :(
Replies: 15
Views: 1827

Re: Pre-market trading with Merrill Edge. Newbie mistake :(

A stop loss order outside of market hours would be a really bad idea. There is very little liquidity and someone could very easily take advantage of you, causing the order to get triggered when under normal conditions the price wouldn't fall low enough to trigger. I think this is just a rookie mista...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?
Replies: 40
Views: 4763

Re: When stocks and bonds drop at the same time, what do you do?

This is the kind of environment that is the achilles heel of risk parity portfolios. The only place to hide when the Fed is tightening is in short term high quality debt. This is the lowest performing asset class in the long term though. Our whole financial system is premised on risk assets outperfo...
by rmelvey
Thu Oct 11, 2018 4:05 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What did you buy today
Replies: 119
Views: 9383

Re: What did you buy today

Got lucky with some life event timing so I have a lot of cash on the sidelines right now. Bought some ITOT today. 8-)
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 17, 2018 3:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What to adjust now if not leaving a legacy?
Replies: 10
Views: 1076

Re: What to adjust now if not leaving a legacy?

You could replace some of your bonds with SPIAs. They offer fixed income for life with a higher sustainable payout rate than a bond portfolio.
by rmelvey
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How can I move back to NYC with such high taxes? (State/City tax, Unincorporated Business Tax)
Replies: 110
Views: 9839

Re: How can I move back to NYC with such high taxes? (State/City tax, Unincorporated Business Tax)

New York is one of the places where you feel crazy paying such high rent/taxes, but as soon as you leave you realize there is no substitute. If you want to live this life you need to pay the price. Try to just enjoy it. Money is a tool to help you live the life you want.
by rmelvey
Thu Jan 04, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy
Replies: 52
Views: 5705

Re: Cryptocurrency Exit Strategy

I would try to figure out what % of your portfolio is too much to have in XRP (or crypto) and if it appreciates a lot and breaches that level then you sell down to get it back under target. That is the most unemotional way to handle it. Basically treat it similar to rebalancing any other asset in yo...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the experts say about Bitcoins?
Replies: 114
Views: 9599

Re: What the experts say about Bitcoins?

Total crypto market cap is closing in on a trillion. At this point refusing to own any is a form of active management 8-) Does anyone else see the irony in praising the wisdom of the markets when it comes to stock market indexing, but calling nearly a trillion dollars of market value in crypto a bi...
by rmelvey
Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What the experts say about Bitcoins?
Replies: 114
Views: 9599

Re: What the experts say about Bitcoins?

Total crypto market cap is closing in on a trillion. At this point refusing to own any is a form of active management 8-) Does anyone else see the irony in praising the wisdom of the markets when it comes to stock market indexing, but calling nearly a trillion dollars of market value in crypto a big...