Search found 193 matches

by re@51.5
Sat May 05, 2012 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors should ignore the Fed
Replies: 0
Views: 341

Why investors should ignore the Fed

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGAp ... noreTheFed
For most investors, a sensible plan includes a mix of stocks, bonds, cash, and perhaps other assets. Even as short-term interest rates hover near 0%, cash and bonds still play a critical role in helping to moderate a portfolio's ups and downs. Keep costs low. And unless your goals and circumstances have changed, resist the urge to react to Fed-engineered rallies in riskier assets.
Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Apr 29, 2012 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another GNMA post
Replies: 11
Views: 2144

Re: Confused.

But don't forget: "Past performance does not forecast future performance." John Bogle's Book, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds, 10th Edition" page 127 Rule 4: Use Past Performance to Determine Consistency and Risk ... there is an important role that past performance can play in helping you to make your fund selections. While you should disregard a single aggregate number showing a fund's past long-term return, you can learn a great deal by studying the nature of its past returns. Above all, look for consistency ." page 128 Morningstar Mutual Funds makes these comparisons easy. It shows, in a simple chart, whether a fund was in the first, second, third, or forth quartile of its group during each of the preceding 12 yea...
by re@51.5
Fri Apr 27, 2012 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another GNMA post
Replies: 11
Views: 2144

Another GNMA post

In this thread, The Two Fund Portfolio GNMAs have a special risk factor not present in most bonds. GNMA are a narrow part of the bond market with additional risks that Vanguard discloses (i.e. prepayment risks). GNMAs are riskier than other high quality bonds as has been noted by others. TBM also has "prepayment risk". Vanguard's "Mid-Term Treasury Grade" bond funds (taxable funds as of 03/31/2012) VFIIX (GNMA Fund Investor Shares) "The fund is broadly diversified across the universe of GNMA mortgage-backed securities. The advisor seeks to mitigate prepayment risk by moderately adjusting the coupon or maturity structure in anticipation of interest rate changes. Historically the fund’s volatility has been lower relat...
by re@51.5
Fri Apr 27, 2012 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Portfolio vs. 2, 3 or 4?
Replies: 5
Views: 997

Re: Single Portfolio vs. 2, 3 or 4?

midareff wrote:At about 40% stock and 60% bonds Wellesely might be a one stop solution with its emphasis on income production.
Maybe not... see https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrria.pdf pages 6 &7... maybe 50% of two funds.

Mike
by re@51.5
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's investing tip #4/10: Rebalance early and often
Replies: 51
Views: 20372

Re: Grok's investing tip #4/10: Rebalance early and often

Re: Bogle: Target Date Funds a Bit Too Clever
John Bogle wrote:I'm not a believer, as it happens, in rebalancing every month or anything. I'm a believer--I don't do it myself, by the way--but rebalancing maybe once a year, if you want to do it, and only when the proportions get distinctly different. I wouldn't rebalance to change 55/45--I don't think I would, anyway--to 50/50. It's just too uncertain.
Mr. Bogle is talking specifically about Target Date Funds; can I "assume" his comment can be applied to asset allocation in general ? And "often" is whatever each investor decides?

Mike

P.S. Yes, I know that M* link has been posted here before.
by re@51.5
Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman
Replies: 2
Views: 517

Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/g ... tility.php
More specifically, let's assume we measure the trailing 20-day volatility of the SPY ETF (which tracks the performance of the U.S. S&P500 stock market index) at the end of each month, and adjust our portfolio at the end of any month where observed volatility is 10% above or below the volatility we measured at the end of the prior month.
My Highlight.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs Tilt
Replies: 72
Views: 9515

Re: TSM vs Tilt

YDNAL wrote:
re@51.5 wrote:Here comes a stupid question... can a portfolio exist that is part Tilters and Total Markets?
Mike,

A tilter's portfolio is part Tilt, part Total. :wink:
Dah! What I posted is different than what I was thinking. :oops:

I wanted to post if it is possible to have the best of both, slice-and-dice and total markets. To me, S&D is tilting to the extreme. I have been reading LOTS of posts on M* about the pros/cons of active vs index. I know that diversvication is good, and was wondering if S&D + TM would help... maybe 25% of equities are S&D, 25% of equities are TM/Index, or maybe 50% active + 50% index. Just thinking outloud.

No need to respond to this... just trying to explain my "stupid" question.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs Tilt
Replies: 72
Views: 9515

Re: TSM vs Tilt

IIRC one of the purported additional benefits of a smaller equity allocation/heavier SV approach (vs TSM) was the reduction in skewness/dispersion of returns, which hasn't been articulated thus far . Using simba's spread sheet (rev 10c) and Rodc's portfolios ... http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/rodc1.png http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/rodc2.png I tweaked the spreadsheet to add skew and kurtosis using Excel's =SKEW() and =KURT() functions. At 62yo and full retirement in 2-3 more years, I place a great importance on these... 1) low overall SD 2) low down SD 3) CAGR 4) high Sharpe ratio 5) positive skew I would pick the 4x25 + bonds (equities equal parts LB,LV,SB,SV) portfolio. And I especia...
by re@51.5
Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Grok's tips?
Replies: 12
Views: 3185

"These go to eleven"... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeOXsA8sp_E

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing (I apologize in advance)
Replies: 24
Views: 3694

Re: International Investing (I apologize in advance)

LazyNihilist wrote:Nisiprius, how do you create/get these wonderful charts?
Of course, I am not Nisiprius...
nisiprius wrote:Vanguard's version is linked from this page and includes a nifty chart, based on data from 1970-2008, shown below.
That chart IS from the VG paper.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 26, 2011 5:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you know about Swedroe's Minimize FatTail Portfolio
Replies: 49
Views: 14572

Re: fundtalker

fundtalker123 wrote:... because you're mathematically guaranteed to get an above average return in your equity portfolio after fees and taxes
...
you can already achieve a 100% guaranteed above average return with TSM.
I am very rusty on my math, can you provide a link to "mathematically guaranteed", and a link to "100% guaranteed"?

Mike
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 24, 2011 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's February TIPS Update is Posted
Replies: 32
Views: 6086

Bongleur wrote:Larry: WRT your _Only...Right Financial Plan_ book, pg47 has a table showing the ratio of TIPS to other bonds.
Just to claify...
Larry also on Page 47 wrote:Table 5.1 is a tool for determining the portion of fixed income to be reprensented by TIPS and their maturities when purchasing individual TIPS.
Mike
by re@51.5
Tue Feb 22, 2011 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Deleted
Replies: 38
Views: 8301

linuxizer wrote:For TBM, Dt=4.7y
For VBIIX, Dx=6.4y
For VBISX, Dy=2.6y

So Fx=.55 . Therefore you want 55% Intermediate Bond Index, 45% Short Bond Index.
As of 01/31/2011...

For VBMFX, Dt=5.1y
For VBIIX, Dx=6.3y
For VBISX, Dy=2.6y

So Fx=.68 . Therefore you want 68% Intermediate Bond Index, 32% Short Bond Index.

Looks like when I rebalance, I will need to tweak this mix to match the duration of VBMFX.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 12, 2011 6:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Era of super-low mortgage rates appears to be over
Replies: 10
Views: 1522

Era of super-low mortgage rates appears to be over

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110210/ap_ ... ge_rates_4 (my bold)
Rates have been rising since the fall, mostly because of fears that higher inflation is coming. Investors have been demanding higher yields on Treasury bonds ever since the Federal Reserve announced its program to pump up the economy by spending $600 billion to buy government debt. Mortgage rates tend to track the yield on the 10-year Treasury note.
I am still struggling to have a "good" understanding about bonds. :oops:

Bonds yields ARE going up and "everyone" is moving money FROM bond funds?????

Mike
by re@51.5
Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living off your money for a very long time.
Replies: 73
Views: 11564

Own home in Western Michigan (near Kalamazoo), well water, ALL natural gas, wood burner. Here are our gas and electric bills... Jan 27, 2011 $ 89.00 Dec 27, 2010 $ 105.00 Nov 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Oct 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Sep 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Aug 24, 2010 $ 105.00 Jul 23, 2010 $ 94.55 Apr 23, 2010 $ 151.00 Mar 25, 2010 $ 151.00 Feb 25, 2010 $ 151.00 Jan 28, 2010 $ 143.30 Oct 23, 2009 $ 144.00 Sep 24, 2009 $ 144.00 Aug 26, 2009 $ 144.00 Jul 24, 2009 $ 144.00 Jun 25, 2009 $ 144.00 Jun 03, 2009 $ 251.80 May 15, 2009 $ 109.71 Apr 13, 2009 $ 124.00 Feb 26, 2009 $ 124.00 Feb 03, 2009 $ 124.00 Dec 26, 2008 $ 124.00 Nov 20, 2008 $ 124.00 Oct 22, 2008 $ 124.00 Sep 22, 2008 $ 124.00 Aug 22, 2008 $ 124.00 Jul 29, 2008 $ 124.00 Mike
by re@51.5
Fri Feb 11, 2011 9:40 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Question on reducing beta exposure using Fama French Swedroe
Replies: 19
Views: 2160

Bongleur wrote:Is there a non-tedious way of entering data into M*? AFAIK you can't enter percentages of a portfolio. Instead you have to multiply each holding's percentage times some $$ number as the portfolio value, and then divide that $$ by the NAV of each holding, and enter that many shares... what a PIA !!!!!
I have FREE M* and Instant X-Ray allows you to use "Holding Value $" or "Percentage Value %".

After you "Show Instant X-Ray" there will be a "Save as a Portfolio" button.

Mike
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 10, 2011 5:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: simba's back testing
Replies: 7
Views: 1546

Re: simba's back testing

dekecarver wrote:am I missing something?
Read the README tab, line 66.
simba wrote:2. Replaced VINEX with VFWIX from 2010 onwards
Mike
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 10, 2011 5:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 770
Views: 410561

cb474 wrote:Works fine for me. But it is a very long web page with many megabytes of information and I have a very fast connection (and it still takes a while to load).
My internet connection is about 1.5Mb/s and takes about 40 seconds to load that page.

Image
It is a pretty poorly designed website, if you ask me, with way to much stuff on each page.
Yup!

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 7460

abuss368 wrote:In fact, in a recent interview with Steve Forbes, Mr. Bogle noted he invests in the Total Bond Market in his tax advantaged accounts and Muni's in his taxable accounts.
Interesting, here http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/?s=intermediate he says...
The Total Bond Market Index Fund is fine, but I vaguely wonder about a bond fund that has 35% of its portfolio in non-bonds (i.e., GNMA securities, with their risk of being prepaid early, when interest rates tumble).
Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 7460

To piggyback onto your question: Why did VG choose TBM as the bond fund of choice in TR funds? Why not a Treasury Bond fund s ? How about this... VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) Average maturity = 7.0 years Average duration = 5.0 years Maturity... less than 5 yrs = 48.0% 5 - 10 yrs = 38.9% greater than 10 yrs = 13.1% 3-year SD = 4.21% 48% of VG Short-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFISX) Average maturity = 2.3 years Average duration = 2.2 years Maturity... less than 5 yrs = 48.0% 5 - 10 yrs = 38.9% greater than 10 yrs = 13.1% 3-year SD = 1.83% 38.9% of VG Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFITX) Average maturity = 5.8 years Average duration = 5.2 years Maturity... less than 5 yrs = 28.4% 5 - 10 y...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 8:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 7460

In terms of the practical importance of what Bongleur is saying, it's all in the old grey area. He or she's suggesting a glide-slope rampdown of bond duration . In fact, ramping down stock allocation via "age in bonds" or a Target-Retirement-style "glide slope" has been challenged in this forum as meaningless tweaking compared to a steady lifetime 60/40. I have only been reading/posting here on BH for four months, and I thought that "glide-slope rampdown of bond duration" was a "gimme" due to all the importance of "horizon". Similarly, a steady lifetime use of Total Bond as one's bond allocation is probably good enough . Nisi, because of your WELL respected status here on BH, you must know ...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1370
Views: 824218

Bongleur wrote:>This has been fixed in the next revision.

Post 1 has rev10b. Is that the fixed version you refer to above?
No.

Post #1: "Last edited by simba on Wed Jan 26, 2011 11:21 am"

Post #1,000,0000: quote from Simba, "Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:52 pm ... This has been fixed in the next revision."
Adding the date of the current rev to Post 1 would be helpful.
Yes.

Mike
by re@51.5
Tue Feb 08, 2011 8:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Stability and Risk of VFSTX/VFSUX
Replies: 10
Views: 3981

In one of Larry's or Bill Bernstein's books, someone took a chart of random points without X & Y labels, and went to some invest people. I can not find that info right now. Anyone else remember something about this?

Mike
by re@51.5
Mon Feb 07, 2011 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ferri All About AA pg 157
Replies: 19
Views: 3815

nisiprius wrote:But it suddenly occurred to me that between VIPSX and the PIMCO short-term (STPZ) and long-term (LTPZ) TIPS ETFs, I could mix them to almost any duration I wanted, and, in particular, plan a glide slope in which the average duration decreases as I age, in some relationship to my--well, let's be gallant/realistic, my wife's--life expectancy.

Thoughts?
I am thinking of something similar using only VG ST, VG IT, and VG LT treasuries (and to eliminate MBS and Corp)... Mimic VG Total Bond Idx without MBS

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did college cost you full list price?
Replies: 105
Views: 17407

So far, Tuition = $60930 less $4750 Scholarships.

See http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60327

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Feb 06, 2011 8:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Partner's Age and Asset Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 2307

http://finance.yahoo.com/how-to-guide/retirement/18312 In 2002, the IRS issued final regulations that greatly simplify the calculation of required minimum distributions. Now, minimum distributions are determined using one standard table based on the IRA owner's/plan participant's age and his or her account balance. Thus, required minimum distributions generally are no longer tied to a named beneficiary. There is one exception, however. IRA owners/plan participants that have a spousal beneficiary who is more than 10 years younger can base required minimum distributions on the joint life expectancy of the IRA owner/plan participant and spousal beneficiary. (my bold) I am in this boat (me 62.5yo, wife 52yo) and have not looked at how RMD might...
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Laura's Latest Forbes Column
Replies: 79
Views: 13554

petrico wrote:The last table covers a different time period than the other two. The question is, why? Probably just data availability.
Geeeezzzz, I'll blame it on gray/grey hair!

I actually find those figures sort of confusing with all the different percents to bonds. I guess you have to look at each figure on its own... do not try to compare the figures to each other (esp since they have different years).

To me, this would be talking about a Ford in one figure, and the next figure a Chevy with different engines... I see it as apples to oranges.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Laura's Latest Forbes Column
Replies: 79
Views: 13554

Hmmm...

1st figure at 100% bonds: Annualized rtn 5.5%, SD 9.5%
3rd figure at 100% bonds: Annualized rtn 8.7%, SD 11.7%

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 9-style box - Vanguard vs M*
Replies: 20
Views: 6726

You can not compare VG and M* boxes regarding bonds.

Note: ALL BOLDING IS MINE

https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... at=vgibond
Vanguard uses a 9-box grid called a style box to illustrate how our bond fund holdings are distributed by credit quality and average maturity.
http://www.morningstar.com/InvGlossary/ ... 1291981747
These groupings display a portfolio's effective duration and third party credit ratings to provide an overall representation of the fund's risk orientation given the sensitivity to interest rate and credit rating of bonds in the portfolio.
Also see http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=64342

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 7:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate factor loads?
Replies: 15
Views: 6582

dave.d wrote:Without examining all the links posted above, here is how I do it:

For each fund in my actual or planned portfolio, I look up the Morningstar X-Ray result, which breaks down the holdings into a 3x3 style and size matrix.

<snip>

I find the above process much more transparent and useful for ex ante planning than the idea of running regression analysis.
Are you still using this method?

I am semi-retired now (part-time job) and plan on full retirement in about 3+ years. I do not think I will be messing with this factor load stuff... I just find it very interesting.

THANKS,
Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:33 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification help with portfolio/portfolio review request
Replies: 13
Views: 2023

kenner wrote:Edit to add article by Jason Zweig, financial writer for Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc. on the desirability of total market investing versus slice and dice:

“I think the TSM vs. Slice-and-Dice “debate” generates much more heat than light. Slice-and-dice has obvious efficiencies for those who want to manage their accounts actively for tax reasons. But I don’t believe the investment advantage is very great, for several reasons.
.
.
.
Do you have a link to this?

I'm going to stick this to my frig, bathroom mirror, truck windshield, PC screen saver, folded up in my wallet, will, etc...

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 30, 2011 9:11 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: International Portfolio review request
Replies: 7
Views: 1429

From Bill Bernstein's book The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) Millions of investors in the 1920s and 1960s thought that they could tolerate a high exposure to stocks. In both cases, the crashes that followed drove most of them from the equity markets for almost a generation. Since the risk of your portfolio is directly related to the percentage of stocks held, it is better that you begin your investment career with a relatively small percentage of stocks . This flies directly in the face of one of the prime tenets of financial planning conventional wisdom: that young investors should invest aggressively, since they have decades to make up their losses. The problem with an early aggressive strategy is that you cannot make up your losses if...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:49 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Am I a fool to hold a total bond market fund right now...
Replies: 110
Views: 18861

hsv_climber wrote:RTM
Bill Bernstein wrote in The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) page 27-28
Bonds are even worse, since their returns do no mean revert - a series of bad years is likely to be followed by even more bad ones, as happened during the 1970s. This is the point made by Jeremy Siegel in his superb treatise, Stock For The Long Run.
(my bold)

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 29, 2011 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to stockbugs - your windshield has arrived
Replies: 53
Views: 6925

That'll be ten "Hail Ferri's"
+1
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1370
Views: 824218

Again, thanks Simba!

From Bill Bernstein's book, The Four Pillars of Investing (2010)
The study of financial history is an essential part of every investor's education. It is not possible to precisely predict the future, but knowledge of the past often allows us to identify financial risk in the here and now. Returns are uncertain. But risks, at least, can be controlled.
George Santayana, a Spanish American philosopher
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it
Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 3:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Change to Social Security "Do Over" Rules
Replies: 51
Views: 8476

re@51.5 wrote:Been there done that.

I filed for SS at 62.5 (July) and received two payments (Sept & Oct).

I realized that working part-time (~$24k/yr) is a much better choice than early SS. I filed the do-over SSA-521 form and repaid two weeks ago.

Mike
I just received my SSA-1099...

Box 3 - Benefits Paid in 2010 = $3282.00
Box 4 - Benefits Repaid to SSA in 2010 = $3282.00
Box 5 - Net Benefits for 2010 = NONE

I was very concerned this would get all fudged up, but it came out OK for me. :D

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why long term treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 4369

VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX)

Code: Select all

10 - 20 Years 5.0% 
20 - 30 Years 7.9% 
Over 30 Years 0.2%
Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 11:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA for a major retirement system
Replies: 18
Views: 2276

hsv_climber wrote:Don't forget that, unlike you, public pension plans have unlimited time horizon.
and bailouts.

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Junk to Treasury spread
Replies: 11
Views: 3068

Dahhh... THANKS! :oops:

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 8:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Junk to Treasury spread
Replies: 11
Views: 3068

I am reading Bill Bernstein's book The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) about junk-Treasury spread (JTS). When the JTS is below 5%, don't even think about buying junk. Using the Bloomberg links provided by RJSachs, I find... http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/JTS_junk.png http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/JTS_gov.png JTS (using 3yr gov) is 7.92%-1.03% = 6.89% JTS (using 5yr gov) is 7.92%-1.98% = 5.94% Since the junk avg duration is 3.47 and I do not have a gov bond at that duration, I would adjust the JTS (using 3yr gov) to be 1/4 less since 3.47 is 1/4 of the way between 3 and 5. 6.89% - 25%*6.89% = 5.17% Am I using the correct info from Bloomberg? Am I adjusting the JTS correctly? Mike
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds: What's on Sale vs. Efficiently Priced? [Poll]
Replies: 13
Views: 1978

Doc wrote:I believe that each of your examples are in a different category and therefore comparison of the M* risk metric from one to another is inappropriate.
I know that... ahhhh... I was just testing you. :wink:

I hope I at least provide some entertainment with all my dumb posts/questions.

I went to the school of wit, but only got half-way through.

Mike :oops:
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: modified coffeehouse for 55yr old
Replies: 7
Views: 1655

No "need" for REITs, see Percentages of REITs Present in Vanguard Index Funds (last update May 2010)

VTSMX is 1.72%
NAESX is 5.32%
------------------
Total REIT 7.04%

Update: (55% * 1.72%) + (15% * 5.32%) = 1.744% weighted

Mike
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 10:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds: What's on Sale vs. Efficiently Priced? [Poll]
Replies: 13
Views: 1978

I am almost retired... I voted Short-Term Treasuries.

Looks like right now (01/24/2011) that IT Trsy is/are very scary.

VG Total Bond Market Index Inv VBMFX ***
Image

VG Short-Term Treasury Inv VFISX ****
Image

VG Interm-Term Treasury Inv VFITX ****
Image

VG Long-Term Treasury Inv VUSTX ***
Image

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 23, 2011 6:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a theoretical argument against tilting
Replies: 16
Views: 2181

Investors tilt to SCV to increase returns. Bonds are there to reduce risk. Bonds should not be compared with tilting. Geez, don't let noobvester (or Larry) see this.! :shock: :cry: I will type this over and over again until it sinks in for folks, but: tilting doesn't have to be about gaining an edge over the market, just like holding bonds and rebalancing (core and largely-agreed-upon strategies of Bogleheads) isn't about increasing returns. tl;dr (a) the total market isn't a universal performance benchmark, (b) we don't know the future but we still have to rely on the past to gain some ideas about it, therefore (c) tilting to diversify risk exposure makes sense, regardless of whether it generates higher returns. I am retired and also look...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 5426

LadyGeek,

I was trying to be a smart axx. :wink:

Total World Stock Index Fund or
Total Stock Market Index Fund

US market or the entire planet market?

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 8:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mimic VG Total Bond Idx without MBS
Replies: 2
Views: 937

Mimic VG Total Bond Idx without MBS

How to mimic VG Total Bond Idx using only Treasuries? VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) This fund is designed to provide broad exposure to U.S. investment grade bonds. Reflecting this goal, the fund invests about 30% in corporate bonds and 70% in U.S. government bonds of all maturities (short-, intermediate-, and long-term issues ). Distribution by maturity (% of fund) as of 12/31/2010 0 - 5 yrs = 48% 5 - 10 yrs = 39% 10yrs & up = 13% VG Short-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFISX) Maintains a dollar-weighted average maturity of 1 to 4 years. Distribution by issuer (% of fund) as of 12/31/2010 0 - 5 yrs = 100% VG Intermediate-Term Treasury Fund Investor Shares (VFITX) Maintains a dollar-weighted average maturit...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 6:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 5426

Re: The Callan Chart and Total Market Index Funds

Taylor Larimore wrote:The Callan Chart illustrates one big reason why Mr. Bogle and many others recommend Total Market Index Funds:

Total Market Index Funds hold everything so there is no worry about being in bottom performing funds at the wrong time.
Which "Total" for equities?

Image

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:29 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on new 10-yr TIPS currently up for auction
Replies: 68
Views: 8854

I don't think Larry says short term treasuries. I think he suggests short term high grade bonds. Is Now a Good Time to Invest in TIPS? - Jul 20, 2009 - by Larry Swedroe The literature is clear that TIPS should dominate your fixed income allocation (at least for tax advantaged accounts) unless there is a large risk premium. And currently there is no risk premium at all. Example, ten year nominal Treasuries yielding 3.37 and ten year TIPS yielding 1.17 for breakeven of 2. Long term inflation forecast based on Philly Fed survey of professional forecasters is higher than that. So the risk premium is negative. So if you are buying bonds at all should prefer TIPS. The only question is what maturity. At all levels now TIPS below historical averag...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 16, 2011 6:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do small cap value tilters need REITs?
Replies: 45
Views: 8146

REITs or Sm Value?
SmallHi wrote:Clearly, under almost any conceivable circumsances, diversification into a combo of SV stocks and ST bond s(depending on risk/return goals) is more advantageous than adding another sector to a portfolio like REITS.
Mike