Search found 193 matches

by re@51.5
Sat May 05, 2012 6:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors should ignore the Fed
Replies: 0
Views: 288

Why investors should ignore the Fed

https://institutional.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/site/institutional/researchcommentary/article/InvComIgnoreTheFed For most investors, a sensible plan includes a mix of stocks, bonds, cash, and perhaps other assets. Even as short-term interest rates hover near 0%, cash and bonds still play a critical rol...
by re@51.5
Sun Apr 29, 2012 8:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another GNMA post
Replies: 11
Views: 1637

Re: Confused.

But don't forget: "Past performance does not forecast future performance." John Bogle's Book, "Common Sense on Mutual Funds, 10th Edition" page 127 Rule 4: Use Past Performance to Determine Consistency and Risk ... there is an important role that past performance can play in helping you to make you...
by re@51.5
Fri Apr 27, 2012 11:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Another GNMA post
Replies: 11
Views: 1637

Another GNMA post

In this thread, The Two Fund Portfolio GNMAs have a special risk factor not present in most bonds. GNMA are a narrow part of the bond market with additional risks that Vanguard discloses (i.e. prepayment risks). GNMAs are riskier than other high quality bonds as has been noted by others. TBM also ha...
by re@51.5
Fri Apr 27, 2012 8:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Single Portfolio vs. 2, 3 or 4?
Replies: 5
Views: 909

Re: Single Portfolio vs. 2, 3 or 4?

midareff wrote:At about 40% stock and 60% bonds Wellesely might be a one stop solution with its emphasis on income production.
Maybe not... see https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/icrria.pdf pages 6 &7... maybe 50% of two funds.

Mike
by re@51.5
Tue Apr 03, 2012 5:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Grok's investing tip #4/10: Rebalance early and often
Replies: 51
Views: 17906

Re: Grok's investing tip #4/10: Rebalance early and often

Re: Bogle: Target Date Funds a Bit Too Clever I'm not a believer, as it happens, in rebalancing every month or anything. I'm a believer--I don't do it myself, by the way--but rebalancing maybe once a year, if you want to do it, and only when the proportions get distinctly different. I wouldn't rebal...
by re@51.5
Tue Mar 13, 2012 9:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman
Replies: 2
Views: 438

Retirement's Volatility Bogeyman

http://advisorperspectives.com/dshort/guest/BP-120312-Retirement-Volatility.php More specifically, let's assume we measure the trailing 20-day volatility of the SPY ETF (which tracks the performance of the U.S. S&P500 stock market index) at the end of each month, and adjust our portfolio at the end ...
by re@51.5
Sun Mar 27, 2011 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs Tilt
Replies: 72
Views: 8698

Re: TSM vs Tilt

Here comes a stupid question... can a portfolio exist that is part Tilters and Total Markets? Mike, A tilter's portfolio is part Tilt, part Total. :wink: Dah! What I posted is different than what I was thinking. :oops: I wanted to post if it is possible to have the best of both, slice-and-dice and ...
by re@51.5
Sun Mar 27, 2011 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TSM vs Tilt
Replies: 72
Views: 8698

Re: TSM vs Tilt

IIRC one of the purported additional benefits of a smaller equity allocation/heavier SV approach (vs TSM) was the reduction in skewness/dispersion of returns, which hasn't been articulated thus far . Using simba's spread sheet (rev 10c) and Rodc's portfolios ... http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r...
by re@51.5
Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:16 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happened to Grok's tips?
Replies: 12
Views: 3091

"These go to eleven"... http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UeOXsA8sp_E

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Mar 23, 2011 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing (I apologize in advance)
Replies: 24
Views: 3519

Re: International Investing (I apologize in advance)

LazyNihilist wrote:Nisiprius, how do you create/get these wonderful charts?
Of course, I am not Nisiprius...
nisiprius wrote:Vanguard's version is linked from this page and includes a nifty chart, based on data from 1970-2008, shown below.
That chart IS from the VG paper.

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 26, 2011 6:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you know about Swedroe's Minimize FatTail Portfolio
Replies: 49
Views: 13445

Re: fundtalker

... because you're mathematically guaranteed to get an above average return in your equity portfolio after fees and taxes ... you can already achieve a 100% guaranteed above average return with TSM. I am very rusty on my math, can you provide a link to "mathematically guaranteed", and a link to "10...
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 24, 2011 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's February TIPS Update is Posted
Replies: 32
Views: 5728

Bongleur wrote:Larry: WRT your _Only...Right Financial Plan_ book, pg47 has a table showing the ratio of TIPS to other bonds.
Just to claify...
Larry also on Page 47 wrote:Table 5.1 is a tool for determining the portion of fixed income to be reprensented by TIPS and their maturities when purchasing individual TIPS.
Mike
by re@51.5
Tue Feb 22, 2011 6:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swedroe and VBMFX/BND
Replies: 38
Views: 7599

For TBM, Dt=4.7y For VBIIX, Dx=6.4y For VBISX, Dy=2.6y So Fx=.55 . Therefore you want 55% Intermediate Bond Index, 45% Short Bond Index. As of 01/31/2011... For VBMFX , Dt=5.1y For VBIIX , Dx=6.3y For VBISX , Dy=2.6y So Fx=.68 . Therefore you want 68% Intermediate Bond Index, 32% Short Bond Index. ...
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 12, 2011 7:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Era of super-low mortgage rates appears to be over
Replies: 10
Views: 1446

Era of super-low mortgage rates appears to be over

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110210/ap_on_re_us/us_mortgage_rates_4 (my bold) Rates have been rising since the fall, mostly because of fears that higher inflation is coming. Investors have been demanding higher yields on Treasury bonds ever since the Federal Reserve announced its program to pump up ...
by re@51.5
Fri Feb 11, 2011 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Living off your money for a very long time.
Replies: 73
Views: 10572

Own home in Western Michigan (near Kalamazoo), well water, ALL natural gas, wood burner. Here are our gas and electric bills... Jan 27, 2011 $ 89.00 Dec 27, 2010 $ 105.00 Nov 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Oct 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Sep 22, 2010 $ 105.00 Aug 24, 2010 $ 105.00 Jul 23, 2010 $ 94.55 Apr 23, 2010 $ 151.0...
by re@51.5
Fri Feb 11, 2011 10:40 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Question on reducing beta exposure using Fama French Swedroe
Replies: 19
Views: 1932

Is there a non-tedious way of entering data into M*? AFAIK you can't enter percentages of a portfolio. Instead you have to multiply each holding's percentage times some $$ number as the portfolio value, and then divide that $$ by the NAV of each holding, and enter that many shares... what a PIA !!!...
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 10, 2011 6:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: simba's back testing
Replies: 7
Views: 1255

Re: simba's back testing

dekecarver wrote:am I missing something?
Read the README tab, line 66.
simba wrote:2. Replaced VINEX with VFWIX from 2010 onwards
Mike
by re@51.5
Thu Feb 10, 2011 6:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ultimate Buy and Hold - 8 slices vs 4
Replies: 733
Views: 335743

Works fine for me. But it is a very long web page with many megabytes of information and I have a very fast connection (and it still takes a while to load). My internet connection is about 1.5Mb/s and takes about 40 seconds to load that page. http://www.speedtest.net/result/1151168434.png It is a p...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 6742

In fact, in a recent interview with Steve Forbes, Mr. Bogle noted he invests in the Total Bond Market in his tax advantaged accounts and Muni's in his taxable accounts. Interesting, here http://johncbogle.com/wordpress/?s=intermediate he says... The Total Bond Market Index Fund is fine, but I vague...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 10:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 6742

To piggyback onto your question: Why did VG choose TBM as the bond fund of choice in TR funds? Why not a Treasury Bond fund s ? How about this... VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) Average maturity = 7.0 years Average duration = 5.0 years Maturity... less than 5 yrs = 48.0% 5 -...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 9:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is TBM the "baseline?" Its duration is interme
Replies: 64
Views: 6742

In terms of the practical importance of what Bongleur is saying, it's all in the old grey area. He or she's suggesting a glide-slope rampdown of bond duration . In fact, ramping down stock allocation via "age in bonds" or a Target-Retirement-style "glide slope" has been challenged in this forum as ...
by re@51.5
Wed Feb 09, 2011 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 636008

>This has been fixed in the next revision. Post 1 has rev10b. Is that the fixed version you refer to above? No. Post #1: "Last edited by simba on Wed Jan 26, 2011 11:21 am" Post #1,000,0000: quote from Simba, "Posted: Mon Feb 07, 2011 4:52 pm ... This has been fixed in the next revision." Adding th...
by re@51.5
Tue Feb 08, 2011 9:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Stability and Risk of VFSTX/VFSUX
Replies: 10
Views: 3587

In one of Larry's or Bill Bernstein's books, someone took a chart of random points without X & Y labels, and went to some invest people. I can not find that info right now. Anyone else remember something about this?

Mike
by re@51.5
Mon Feb 07, 2011 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ferri All About AA pg 157
Replies: 19
Views: 3377

But it suddenly occurred to me that between VIPSX and the PIMCO short-term (STPZ) and long-term (LTPZ) TIPS ETFs, I could mix them to almost any duration I wanted, and, in particular, plan a glide slope in which the average duration decreases as I age, in some relationship to my--well, let's be gal...
by re@51.5
Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:57 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Did college cost you full list price?
Replies: 105
Views: 15522

So far, Tuition = $60930 less $4750 Scholarships.

See http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=60327

Mike
by re@51.5
Sun Feb 06, 2011 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Partner's Age and Asset Allocation
Replies: 13
Views: 2104

http://finance.yahoo.com/how-to-guide/retirement/18312 In 2002, the IRS issued final regulations that greatly simplify the calculation of required minimum distributions. Now, minimum distributions are determined using one standard table based on the IRA owner's/plan participant's age and his or her ...
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Laura's Latest Forbes Column
Replies: 79
Views: 12732

The last table covers a different time period than the other two. The question is, why? Probably just data availability. Geeeezzzz, I'll blame it on gray/grey hair! I actually find those figures sort of confusing with all the different percents to bonds. I guess you have to look at each figure on i...
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 10:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Laura's Latest Forbes Column
Replies: 79
Views: 12732

Hmmm...

1st figure at 100% bonds: Annualized rtn 5.5%, SD 9.5%
3rd figure at 100% bonds: Annualized rtn 8.7%, SD 11.7%

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 9:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 9-style box - Vanguard vs M*
Replies: 20
Views: 5441

You can not compare VG and M* boxes regarding bonds. Note: ALL BOLDING IS MINE https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools/stylebox?View=Fund&Cat=vgibond Vanguard uses a 9-box grid called a style box to illustrate how our bond fund holdings are distributed by credit quality and average maturity . h...
by re@51.5
Sat Feb 05, 2011 8:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to calculate factor loads?
Replies: 15
Views: 6101

Without examining all the links posted above, here is how I do it: For each fund in my actual or planned portfolio, I look up the Morningstar X-Ray result, which breaks down the holdings into a 3x3 style and size matrix. <snip> I find the above process much more transparent and useful for ex ante p...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 30, 2011 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Diversification help with portfolio/portfolio review request
Replies: 13
Views: 1883

Edit to add article by Jason Zweig, financial writer for Wall Street Journal, Forbes, etc. on the desirability of total market investing versus slice and dice: “I think the TSM vs. Slice-and-Dice “debate” generates much more heat than light. Slice-and-dice has obvious efficiencies for those who wan...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 30, 2011 10:11 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Portfolio review request
Replies: 7
Views: 1333

From Bill Bernstein's book The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) Millions of investors in the 1920s and 1960s thought that they could tolerate a high exposure to stocks. In both cases, the crashes that followed drove most of them from the equity markets for almost a generation. Since the risk of your...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 29, 2011 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I a fool to hold a total bond market fund right now...
Replies: 110
Views: 17490

RTM Bill Bernstein wrote in The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) page 27-28 Bonds are even worse, since their returns do no mean revert - a series of bad years is likely to be followed by even more bad ones, as happened during the 1970s. This is the point made by Jeremy Siegel in his superb treatis...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 29, 2011 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to stockbugs - your windshield has arrived
Replies: 53
Views: 6331

That'll be ten "Hail Ferri's"
+1
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 5:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simba's backtesting spreadsheet [a Bogleheads community project]
Replies: 1122
Views: 636008

Again, thanks Simba! From Bill Bernstein's book, The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) The study of financial history is an essential part of every investor's education. It is not possible to precisely predict the future, but knowledge of the past often allows us to identify financial risk in the her...
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Change to Social Security "Do Over" Rules
Replies: 51
Views: 8016

Been there done that. I filed for SS at 62.5 (July) and received two payments (Sept & Oct). I realized that working part-time (~$24k/yr) is a much better choice than early SS. I filed the do-over SSA-521 form and repaid two weeks ago. Mike I just received my SSA-1099... Box 3 - Benefits Paid in 201...
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why long term treasury bonds?
Replies: 20
Views: 3872

VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX)

Code: Select all

10 - 20 Years 5.0% 
20 - 30 Years 7.9% 
Over 30 Years 0.2%
Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AA for a major retirement system
Replies: 18
Views: 2122

hsv_climber wrote:Don't forget that, unlike you, public pension plans have unlimited time horizon.
and bailouts.

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 10:34 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Junk to Treasury spread
Replies: 11
Views: 2913

Dahhh... THANKS! :oops:

Mike
by re@51.5
Wed Jan 26, 2011 9:52 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Junk to Treasury spread
Replies: 11
Views: 2913

I am reading Bill Bernstein's book The Four Pillars of Investing (2010) about junk-Treasury spread (JTS). When the JTS is below 5%, don't even think about buying junk. Using the Bloomberg links provided by RJSachs, I find... http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/JTS_junk.png http...
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds: What's on Sale vs. Efficiently Priced? [Poll]
Replies: 13
Views: 1833

I believe that each of your examples are in a different category and therefore comparison of the M* risk metric from one to another is inappropriate. I know that... ahhhh... I was just testing you. :wink: I hope I at least provide some entertainment with all my dumb posts/questions. I went to the s...
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: modified coffeehouse for 55yr old
Replies: 7
Views: 1564

No "need" for REITs, see Percentages of REITs Present in Vanguard Index Funds (last update May 2010)

VTSMX is 1.72%
NAESX is 5.32%
------------------
Total REIT 7.04%

Update: (55% * 1.72%) + (15% * 5.32%) = 1.744% weighted

Mike
by re@51.5
Mon Jan 24, 2011 11:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Funds: What's on Sale vs. Efficiently Priced? [Poll]
Replies: 13
Views: 1833

I am almost retired... I voted Short-Term Treasuries. Looks like right now (01/24/2011) that IT Trsy is/are very scary. VG Total Bond Market Index Inv VBMFX *** http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323/WTWpix/retirement/Deal_VBMFX.png VG Short-Term Treasury Inv VFISX **** http://i352.photobucket.com/...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 23, 2011 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a theoretical argument against tilting
Replies: 16
Views: 1941

Investors tilt to SCV to increase returns. Bonds are there to reduce risk. Bonds should not be compared with tilting. Geez, don't let noobvester (or Larry) see this.! :shock: :cry: I will type this over and over again until it sinks in for folks, but: tilting doesn't have to be about gaining an edg...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4913

LadyGeek,

I was trying to be a smart axx. :wink:

Total World Stock Index Fund or
Total Stock Market Index Fund

US market or the entire planet market?

Mike
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 9:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mimic VG Total Bond Idx without MBS
Replies: 2
Views: 847

Mimic VG Total Bond Idx without MBS

How to mimic VG Total Bond Idx using only Treasuries? VG Total Bond Market Index Fund Investor Shares (VBMFX) This fund is designed to provide broad exposure to U.S. investment grade bonds. Reflecting this goal, the fund invests about 30% in corporate bonds and 70% in U.S. government bonds of all ma...
by re@51.5
Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 26
Views: 4913

Re: The Callan Chart and Total Market Index Funds

The Callan Chart illustrates one big reason why Mr. Bogle and many others recommend Total Market Index Funds: Total Market Index Funds hold everything so there is no worry about being in bottom performing funds at the wrong time. Which " Total " for equities? http://i352.photobucket.com/albums/r323...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 16, 2011 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Thoughts on new 10-yr TIPS currently up for auction
Replies: 68
Views: 8091

I don't think Larry says short term treasuries. I think he suggests short term high grade bonds. Is Now a Good Time to Invest in TIPS? - Jul 20, 2009 - by Larry Swedroe The literature is clear that TIPS should dominate your fixed income allocation (at least for tax advantaged accounts) unless there...
by re@51.5
Sun Jan 16, 2011 7:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Do small cap value tilters need REITs?
Replies: 45
Views: 7062

REITs or Sm Value?
SmallHi wrote:Clearly, under almost any conceivable circumsances, diversification into a combo of SV stocks and ST bond s(depending on risk/return goals) is more advantageous than adding another sector to a portfolio like REITS.
Mike