Search found 119 matches

by zonto
Fri Oct 05, 2018 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is that value premium?
Replies: 57
Views: 4055

Re: Where is that value premium?

Thought I'd share this article from a couple years ago: Is the Value Premium Disappearing? . It also analyzes the value premium in developed and emerging international markets. Also this thread: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=191001, which analyzes the relationship between the valu...
by zonto
Fri Sep 21, 2018 7:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

hdas wrote:
Thu Sep 20, 2018 8:12 pm
some wood to the fire:

Image
Thank you for sharing! Could you please link to the source as well?
by zonto
Tue Sep 11, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous
Replies: 152
Views: 18792

Re: Why Bull Markets Are Dangerous

Do you not think that 100/0 has a higher expected return than 70/30? That would be quite the statement. Vanguard believes there is a good chance this will be the case over the next 5-10 years based on their adjusted CAPE calculations as of January 3, 2018, before the correction. Market is even high...
by zonto
Tue Sep 04, 2018 2:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Zonto... I read your attached articles, and I guess I still don't get it. I'm looking to build a 60/40 portfolio using the 3 Fund approach. So, I used Portfolio Visualizer to create an efficient frontier using those three asset classes, US stocks, Ex-US stocks, and US bonds. I built it to begin as ...
by zonto
Tue Sep 04, 2018 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

gvsucavie03..... So, I guess you are still not buying that the correlation of returns between US and Ex-US changed dramatically from just under 0.50 in the early years of those Nationwide and Wiki charts, to now being 0.90 for the period 1998-2017 ? Or do you not accept the concept that correlation...
by zonto
Mon Sep 03, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

From the BH wiki: https://www.bogleheads.org/w/images/1/11/US-International.png Perhaps that should be updated? Either way, there wasn’t a marked difference in risk/return for holding anywhere from 20 to 50% international. It’s reasonable to assume that holding anywhere in that range for the future...
by zonto
Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International Bonds - should they be part of your AA?
Replies: 6
Views: 583

Re: International Bonds - should they be part of your AA?

I think the general consensus is that most do not actively seek to add them to their portfolio (and if they do, they ensure they are USD-hedged), but most do not also actively avoid them (i.e., being OK with them in a LifeStrategy or Target Retirement fund). Here are the two relevant Vanguard white ...
by zonto
Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why doesn't Fidelity have an international bond index fund?
Replies: 12
Views: 934

Re: Why doesn't Fidelity have an international bond index fund?

Even today, as far as I know, nobody but Vanguard offers international bond funds that are a) currency-hedged and b) low cost. For example, the nearest PIMCO equivalent, PAIIX, PIMCO Global Bond Opps (USD-Hdg) A, has an 0.92% expense ratio. When they first started mentioning the possibility, Vangua...
by zonto
Wed Aug 22, 2018 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

REITs may be the only alternative that has historically had stock-like returns without being strongly correlated to stocks, though their correlation since 1996 has been about .67, which is still moderately strong. The 2008-2009 debacle, where both asset classes suffered greatly, was historically ab...
by zonto
Mon Aug 20, 2018 10:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1154
Views: 95286

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

Some Considerations for Investing Globally - http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/07/some-considerations-for-investing-globally/ Diversification benefits. Since 1970, the U.S. has outperformed the MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australasia and the Far East) 23 out of 48 calendar years (thus, foreign stocks hav...
by zonto
Tue Aug 14, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 40/60 portfolio
Replies: 5
Views: 1000

Re: 40/60 portfolio

Approximately 7.8% average annual rate of return from 1926-2017. See: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insigh ... ns?lang=en.
by zonto
Mon Aug 13, 2018 8:05 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard funds with purchase fees; ETFs without. How come?
Replies: 28
Views: 4079

Re: Vanguard funds with purchase fees; ETFs without. How come?

Any thoughts on why Vanguard Global ex-U.S. Real Estate Index Fund Admiral Shares (VGRLX) still has the purchase and redemption fee, even though assets under management are $6.7 billion as of 6/30/18?

https://investor.vanguard.com/mutual-fu ... view/vgrlx
by zonto
Wed Jul 18, 2018 7:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stocks in Taxable?
Replies: 34
Views: 3177

Re: International Stocks in Taxable?

Even with the foreign tax credit, it may be much more expensive to keep international in taxable depending on tax bracket due to the percentage of unqualified dividends thrown off. See: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=242137. There’s a spreadsheet that you can plug your inputs into ...
by zonto
Fri Jul 13, 2018 11:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The value of international stocks, in pictures
Replies: 64
Views: 8965

Re: The value of international stocks, in pictures

Someone will perhaps post the link to the Vanguard study. I can't do so from where I am right now. https://www.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGGEB.pdf Conclusion: In light of quantitative analysis and qualitative considerations, we have demonstrated that domestic investors should consider allocating part of th...
by zonto
Wed Jul 11, 2018 5:44 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put international?
Replies: 35
Views: 3783

Re: Where to put international?

Higher is bad.
by zonto
Sat Jul 07, 2018 11:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: US:International allocation ratio
Replies: 18
Views: 1650

Re: US:International allocation ratio

As simple as possible you say? Buy Vanguard’s Total World Stock Index ETF (ticker: VT) and be done with it. One fund that tracks the entire global investable public markets.

By the way, current market weight is around 52% US and 48% international.
by zonto
Fri Jul 06, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Where to put international?
Replies: 35
Views: 3783

Re: Where to put international?

Thank you all for the helpful responses to this thread. Not the OP, but found the discussion enlightening and made a couple tweaks to my portfolio today based on the relative tax efficiency data shared.
by zonto
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I continue to hold REITs?
Replies: 53
Views: 6012

Re: Should I continue to hold REITs?

As other posters above, I find the timing of the original post in this thread interesting. Quarterly returns for Vanguard's Real Estate Index (VGSLX) in 2018:
  • Q1: -8.11%
  • Q2: 8.83%
by zonto
Sat Apr 21, 2018 6:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 213
Views: 22164

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I get the arguments against them, but they simply haven’t played out in reality since the inception of Vanguard’s international bond index fund or over a longer period according to portfolio visualizer. See the discussion here: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=232920. I’ve been very ...
by zonto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Bonds
Replies: 34
Views: 5848

Re: International Bonds

I think the following charts make a pretty convincing case for using USD-hedged international index funds as part of one's fixed income allocation. For reference, VBTLX is Vanguard Total [U.S.] Bond Market Index Fund Admiral Shares and VTABX is Vanguard Total International Bond Index Fund Admiral Sh...
by zonto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds and Accumulation
Replies: 6
Views: 824

Re: Bonds and Accumulation

I do the same thing. Bonds in 401(k)s, and equities in HSA, Roth IRAs and taxable account. You'll drive yourself nuts rebalancing every time you make a taxable contribution, so I'd just pick a date or two during the year depending on how much you're contributing. For me, I check if rebalance is need...
by zonto
Fri Mar 09, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why International again?
Replies: 224
Views: 25679

Re: Why International again?

I'll throw my $0.02 into the billionth thread on the topic. These are some of my favorite sources, in addition to the quilts posted above. Global Diversification: Accepting Good Enough to Avoid Terrible - A Wealth of Common Sense Diversification is about accepting good enough while missing out on gr...
by zonto
Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Crypto Index Fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2459

Re: Crypto Index Fund

The SEC is not directly forcing Coinbase to only sell to accredited investors. A company like Coinbase that elects to offer and sale securities, like this crypto index fund, must register those securities with the SEC unless it finds an exemption from those registration requirements. One of those ex...
by zonto
Mon Feb 26, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?
Replies: 17
Views: 2078

Re: TCEHY -- "google" of China ?

I have looked into it, but only so far as to see that it's the top holding in Vanguard Total International Stock Index Fund: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsAllHoldings?FundId=0569&FundIntExt=INT&tableName=Equity&tableIndex=0&sort=marketValue&sortOrder=desc&funds_disable_redirect=true. I hold ...
by zonto
Tue Feb 13, 2018 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's your U.S. : International ratio?
Replies: 213
Views: 39961

Re: What's your U.S. : International ratio?

pascalwager wrote:
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:59 pm
From what I understand, the VG Life Strategy and Target Date series will eventually go to world market ratios for both stocks and bonds.
Do you have a source for this? It would make sense, but I haven't read anything official.
by zonto
Mon Feb 05, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 21
Views: 4506

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

That's interesting, and it should be noted that the somewhat-alarming title, "REIT fund changes investment objective, name, and index" is Vanguard's own description of what they are doing. I don't know how big a deal it really is. The news item is from their "institutional" site and maybe the chang...
by zonto
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index
Replies: 21
Views: 4506

Re: Vanguard REIT fund changes objective, name & index

And the index the fund will track over the next six months: https://www.msci.com/documents/1296102/1335386/msci_us_investable_market_real_estate_2550_transition_index_usd_gross-jan-18.pdf/46a0731c-b15f-40da-b26e-6999f5613772. Looks like it may have been created for Vanguard, given the October 2017 i...
by zonto
Sun Feb 04, 2018 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD
Replies: 29
Views: 3370

Re: why are people saying there is bond issues. BND only down 2% YTD

livesoft wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 12:24 pm
Stocks and bonds are NOT inverse correlated. They are still positively correlated.
The data disagree: https://tinyurl.com/ya2uwevw

Image
by zonto
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns
Replies: 35
Views: 5702

Re: 2017 Callan Periodic Table of Investment Returns

While waiting for the Callan table to be updated this past week, I stumbled across something similar from Novel Investor: https://novelinvestor.com/asset-class-returns/. It includes REITs and a diversified portfolio. It is also interactive (at the link above, click on a square to play around). Image...
by zonto
Tue Dec 26, 2017 10:46 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond help. 33 year old
Replies: 10
Views: 1591

Re: Bond help. 33 year old

Yep. One other thing to consider is that one may be in a lower tax bracket when the initial decision is made, but be in a much higher tax bracket later in their career. I'd prefer to use munis from the beginning if I'm going to put bonds in taxable.
by zonto
Mon Dec 25, 2017 6:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Investing without knowing governance/accounting details
Replies: 8
Views: 844

Re: International Investing without knowing governance/accounting details

When has the higher risk of international actually yielded higher returns over an extended period of time? Certainly not since 1986 (which is as far back as Portfolio Visualizer will let one compare them). What does “extended” mean in my question? A heck of a lot more than 10, so the 2000s run does...
by zonto
Mon Dec 25, 2017 8:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 120
Views: 14711

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

There is a difference between saying, "I don't care what [insert person] thinks." and saying, "I disagree with the argument made by [insert person] because [insert counter argument]." One is is a blanket disregard for a person's arguments because of who they are and is a reverse of the appeal to aut...
by zonto
Sat Dec 23, 2017 4:57 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: REIT or No REIT
Replies: 98
Views: 15102

Re: REIT or No REIT

They are traditionally seen as interest-sensitive stocks. I hear this often, but the data do not support the definitive conclusion. See: REIT Stocks: An Underutilized Portfolio Diversifier by Fidelity, specifically pp. 6-7. REITs are sensitive to interest-rate movements. With historically low gover...
by zonto
Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:07 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Clever use of a "C" Corporation
Replies: 23
Views: 3669

Re: Clever use of a "C" Corporation

[delete]
by zonto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 214
Views: 29331

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

Would Jack Bogle approve of crypto investing if one does so through a market capitalization weighted index fund?
by zonto
Tue Dec 05, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retreat to cash
Replies: 335
Views: 65575

Re: Retreat to cash

I posted this in another thread yesterday, but thought it relevant here as well. Vanguard published a white paper on November 29 titled As U.S. stock prices rise, the risk-return trade-off gets tricky . In it, Vanguard discusses how, using conventional valuation methods, valuations are unusually hig...
by zonto
Mon Dec 04, 2017 11:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?
Replies: 66
Views: 11162

Re: Ok reasons for a 37 year old to have a 60/40 mix?

Piggybacking on the above post, Vanguard released a white paper last week titled As U.S. stock prices rise, the risk-return trade-off gets tricky . Not only does it make the case for global diversification, I though the final paragraphs re: the outlook for balanced portfolios were especially relevan...
by zonto
Sat Nov 25, 2017 7:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!
Replies: 222
Views: 39324

Re: Bonds - Throw it all on the table!!!

1) List the bond funds, individual bonds, CD's, etc. that you invest in - Vanguard Internediate Term Bond Index (VBILX) - Vanguard Total Bond Market Index (VBTIX) 2) In which account what fixed income securities are held Traditional 401(k)s. Very good Vanguard choices within. 3) Allocation as a per...
by zonto
Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 5742

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

. . . Anyhoo, you will probably be interested by this little study. Comments welcome. Thanks for the reminder. I recall we spoke about the study in the international REIT thread, but I forgot its breadth and inclusion of international bonds. The Portfolio Visualizer data set was limited to 2003 due...
by zonto
Tue Nov 14, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)
Replies: 44
Views: 5742

Re: Backtesting International Bonds (as an aggregate)

I've been researching international bond funds lately, and found the Bogleheads forum to have a general distaste for them. I find this somewhat odd, especially given the forum's relative acceptance of bond funds like Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond Index (VBILX), which is comprised of 50% intermedia...
by zonto
Sun Nov 05, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should one use REITs
Replies: 54
Views: 10790

Re: Should one use REITs

I do and think there is good reason to despite their weighting in broad market indices. Plenty of good threads on the topic. If you decide to, I would diversify globally.

See: viewtopic.php?f=1&t=218459.
by zonto
Sat Nov 04, 2017 7:43 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: International REIT
Replies: 37
Views: 6461

Re: International REIT

Hey zonto, thanks for sharing all those interesting data points. Do keep sharing, please! . . . As to P/CF valuations, well, I would be skeptical about the author you mentioned (his CAPE views seriously lacking coherence), but anyhoo, your AA decision should be made irrespective of current valuatio...
by zonto
Tue Oct 31, 2017 10:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: MA 529 plan fund question
Replies: 8
Views: 862

Re: MA 529 plan fund question

You're aware that you can invest in the 529 plan of ANY state, right? Or roll-over from one to the other? I live in MA, I chose the NY 529 plan for my children. Great Vanguard funds with low ER. At the time, the MA 529 plan was pretty bad. This was a while ago though, I have no idea how the situati...
by zonto
Sat Oct 28, 2017 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: ETF Vs Admiral
Replies: 16
Views: 2210

Re: ETF Vs Admiral