Search found 5895 matches

by Noobvestor
Thu Dec 28, 2023 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Worldwide version of NTSX on the way [RSSB new global return stacking ETF]
Replies: 59
Views: 9875

Re: RSSB new global return stacking ETF

(APPLICANT) ReSolve Asset Management SEZC at Harbour Place, CORPORATION CAYMAN ISLANDS

Am I just falling back on vague stereotypes about sketchy people stashing cash in the Cayman Islands, or is this an actual red flag? :idea:
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 26, 2023 1:53 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Etf’s for dividends and growth
Replies: 48
Views: 4171

Re: Best “Buy or Sell” stock forecast website?

Checking the market regularly (especially: daily) will lead to bad outcomes. You're asking people on a forum who know this fact to help you find a website to do this anyway -- basically, you're asking us to help you invest poorly. I don't think you're going to get the kind of answer you think you're looking for. Oh… yes. i understand now your point of view. Probably did not explain well… Dont plan to look at this daily. I am sure i will hear on the news too when is very low… and then i will research better The problem isn't looking at it daily, it's looking at all. You never know if the market is going to go up or down next. Sometimes it remains irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Really, you should just buy on a schedule, accor...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 25, 2023 11:34 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Help with Etf’s for dividends and growth
Replies: 48
Views: 4171

Re: Best “Buy or Sell” stock forecast website?

Checking the market regularly (especially: daily) will lead to bad outcomes. You're asking people on a forum who know this fact to help you find a website to do this anyway -- basically, you're asking us to help you invest poorly. I don't think you're going to get the kind of answer you think you're looking for.
by Noobvestor
Thu Nov 23, 2023 1:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")
Replies: 5216
Views: 832407

Re: International (Non-US) versus US Equities (The "Arguments")

Lots of observations but: which aren't baked into valuations? I'll never understand why people treat ex-US as something 'extra' - plenty of other countries have beaten the US for years, decades, even the entire past century. Lumping them together to compare them is reductive.
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 22, 2023 8:17 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Refurbished laptop where to buy
Replies: 39
Views: 4537

Re: Refurbished laptop where to buy

I've had good luck with Backmarket. It's hit or miss whether they'll have exactly what you're looking for at any given time, but I tend to be a bit flexible, and have gotten great deals on used stuff that's in excellent condition.
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:30 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: What's changed in the last 10 years Bogleheads?
Replies: 279
Views: 57035

Re: What's changed in the last 10 years Bogleheads?

JohnSlackII wrote: Wed Nov 15, 2023 8:23 pm "First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries"

Those people got slaughtered.

I was tempted. (Long term listener, new caller.)

But I'm glad I stayed the course with my decidedly un-"modern" Total Bond fund.
If you were tempted before, surely you're even more tempted now! Buy low, sell high, and lock in those rates, no? :sharebeer
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 21, 2023 1:29 am
Forum: US Chapters
Topic: What's changed in the last 10 years Bogleheads?
Replies: 279
Views: 57035

Re: What's changed in the last 10 years Bogleheads?

I think there is a widespread feeling in this forum that at Vanguard, under Mortimer Buckley, things ain't what they used to be. There is unease about stumbles in IT and customer service. William J. Bernstein, in the just-out second edition of The Four Pillars of Investing, has written: The quality gap between the Vanguard Group and the rest of the investing industry is largely gone. As an admirer of the late John Bogle, it pains me to admit that customer support at Vanguard has deteriorated, with not infrequent clerical errors and extended phone hold times, in contrast to the generally fast, knowledgeable, and accurate support at other firms. There have always been discussions of the pros and cons of other brokerages, but of late I would ...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

I suppose it wouldn't hurt to mention that about half of my bond holdings are in Series I and EE bonds (a bit less). The rest are in TIPS and Treasuries, but to be specific: TIPS and Treasury bond funds (and Money Markets) averaging out to a target duration, more or less.

I also would find the answer easier if I were, say, 3 or 4 years into an EE ladder. As it is, I don't like the idea of leaving a 'gap' just because rates have changed a bit (i.e. selling a few years' worth, but still having older ones, and maybe buying more down the line). It's probably just an OCD thing, but I'd rather carry on with EE bond purchases, or bail and not go back to that strategy, and just let the ones I keep now double.
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 11:43 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

A downside to Treasuries would be that if for some now-unplanned reason you need to redeem early, the Treasuries could have lost considerable value. I'll make an exception for Series I and EE bonds, but beyond that I refuse to add the complexity of DIY ladders or individual bonds in general. ;) But that's just what you're asking about, buying individual Treasury bonds to replace EE :confused ..... Of course, there's the possibility to put the EE proceeds in stocks and then offset that by trading stocks for bonds in an IRA. That would reduce, but not eliminate, the added tax drag. OH, sorry, I should have been more specific (guilty as usual of using 'bonds' as a casual shorthand for 'bond funds'). I'd be swapping EE bonds for Treasuries hel...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

A downside to Treasuries would be that if for some now-unplanned reason you need to redeem early, the Treasuries could have lost considerable value. I'll make an exception for Series I and EE bonds, but beyond that I refuse to add the complexity of DIY ladders or individual bonds in general. ;) If you're MFJ now I'd say the outcome of your betting on a lower or equal bracket is definitely in doubt. Otherwise you might be see marginally higher or lower rates, certainly not worth thinking much about, unless maybe as part of a retire-early strategy. While I understand what you're thinking, when it comes right down to it, no Boglehead will actually be "fine paying more taxes later." I'm single. Not really sure if I'll get married or ...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 4:45 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

The STRIPS are zero coupon, like EE bonds, so it is a fairer and easier comparison. With regular treasuries you will receive coupon payments that you would need to reinvest at unknown interest rates. That complicates the comparison. One option could be to assume the market is efficient and so there is no reason to expect a better outcome from zero coupon STRIPS vs. regular treasuries. So if STRIPS are better than EE, then at least the expected return from treasuries would better as well. Another option could be to figure out what term of treasury has the same duration as the EE, so maybe you would need to buy a 17 year treasury to replace the 15 year EE or something like that. Treasuries are more liquid than STRIPS (smaller bid/ask spread)...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 2:48 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

I appreciate the math, I really do! I'm missing one dumb thing though ... where the heck do I find STRIPS YTMs? My Google-fu is failing me here. Is there a way to do a similar calculation/comparison with SEC yields? Those I feel like I understand and can find easily for basically any duration. Your broker should have a list of bonds you can buy. For example at Schwab they have right now available: US Treasury STRIP 0% 08/15/2043 at YTM 4.985% Disclaimer: I have never purchased individual bonds. I know some theory, but I have no practical experience managing them. Since 20-year Treasuries are yielding 4.8%, might it be safe to say that Treasuries are a good (enough) proxy? And if not, there's another conversion I need to make here, right? B...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:36 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

Today, Treasuries are yielding 4.8%. EE doubling is a bit over 3.5% annualized. But ... I get to defer taxes. Curious how others are weighing this all. It may depend on when the 20 years will occur in someone's investing timeline. If it comes when you want to be doing Roth conversions, or post-SS-claiming, for example... those might not be the best situations. I tended not to think of all my deferred investments as being in the "deferred" category, only the obvious ones like tIRAs and employer deferred plans, when fact I also had an annuity with mandatory distributions, I/EEs, plus large capital gains in taxable. So I didn't fully appreciate that almost anywhere I wanted to pull money from (voluntarily or through RMDs) will trigg...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:32 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

I appreciate the math, I really do! I'm missing one dumb thing though ... where the heck do I find STRIPS YTMs? My Google-fu is failing me here. Is there a way to do a similar calculation/comparison with SEC yields? Those I feel like I understand and can find easily for basically any duration.
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2023 12:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

Re: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

I'm not worried about cash flow -- just ultimate post-tax return (i.e. I don't need, for example, to worry about what other bonds are/n't throwing off. I have way too much in taxable as-is, and between dividends and bond payments, it's more than enough to pay off any taxes). f the STRIPS YTM is significantly better than the EE Bonds current YTM, it's fairly straightforward to sell the EE Bonds and purchase the equivalent quantity of STRIPS / TIPS of the same maturity and then pay the likely insignificant taxes on any interest you've already earned on the EE Bonds. Isn't that apples and oranges, though? TIPS (inflation adjusted) and EE doubling (nominal)? I hold Series I and EE as well as TIPS and Treasuries, but more specifically: I aim for...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 19, 2023 9:24 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags
Replies: 19
Views: 1947

EE Bond Doubling vs. Treasuries -- Question on Breakeven Rates & Tax Drags

So I've been buying the max (10K/year) of EE bonds each year for the past decade, always with the idea in mind that if rates went up enough, I could stop buying, even sell some recent years, and buying Treasuries instead. But I'm scratching my head trying to figure out how taxes figure in. Question: How many years back should I sell my EE bonds? Givens: 1) I can't fit more bonds in tax-advantaged -- it is EE bonds or Treasuries in taxable. 2) My income is likely to be lower 15-20 years from now (i.e. I am likely to be in a lower tax bracket, but not sure - am currently mid-40s). 3) Subjectively, I like the simplicity of maxing out EE and I bond purchases each year, and planning to draw down once a year in the future. So if for example the '...
by Noobvestor
Sat Aug 26, 2023 4:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread
Replies: 1512
Views: 167413

Re: Vanguard Customer Service Mega-thread

So ... is there no longer a way for Flagship members to just send a support message request online?! I tried the 'triage' method but dead-ended a few times. I can call (and might have to) but wondered if there was a hack I'm missing first. (I like just sending a message so I don't have to wait on hold, and will just get their response when I get it ... seems easier for everyone, but what do I know?!) :shock:
by Noobvestor
Sat Jul 02, 2022 9:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]
Replies: 369
Views: 58276

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]

Literally just rolling back to the previous version that worked would work for me :)
by Noobvestor
Thu Jun 30, 2022 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]
Replies: 369
Views: 58276

Re: Vanguard Portfolio Watch has a new look [Calculations may be incorrect]

So ... is the 'other investments' category borked for everyone, or just me? I manually input outside things (I and EE bonds, VC, etc...) and label them as 'bonds' or 'stocks' but on the new Portfolio Watch page they just show up as 'Other' (which wasn't the case before).

My asset mix now has 20% allocated to other, which defeats the only purpose of the tool for me (checking stock/bond ratio for rebalancing).

Image

Image
by Noobvestor
Thu May 19, 2022 1:56 am
Forum: Non-US Investing
Topic: Should I dump my bonds?
Replies: 9
Views: 2987

Re: Should I dump my bonds?

Bond rates are better -- this is the opposite of when you might want to sell. Buy more and stay the course.
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 11, 2022 7:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Surging 10Y Yield meaning?
Replies: 22
Views: 2386

Re: Surging 10Y Yield meaning?

Treasuries are a better and better buy! :moneybag
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 13, 2022 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging markets have failed to live up (says M* article)
Replies: 156
Views: 19353

Re: Emerging markets have failed to live up (says M* article)

nisiprius wrote: Sun Feb 13, 2022 9:06 am At least I found a posting from Noobvestor explaining why people pay attention to GMO's forecasts, which had previously been a mystery to me:

Posting

Image
Mea culpa. I confess that ten years later, I've come around on GMO, and concede that Grantham is a EM-loving permabear. That said, like a dutiful Boglehead, I continue to hold the same portfolio I have for a long time, including the EM tilt. Just staying the course!
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 02, 2022 3:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Surviving Power Outage During Blizzard
Replies: 274
Views: 21276

Re: Surviving Power Outage During Blizzard

sailaway wrote: Mon Jan 31, 2022 2:13 pm.

Have non perishables. No need for camp food, which will often require your precious water. Try something like tasty bites pouches or chef boy R d cans for an easy heat and serve option with a long shelf life.

Huddle.
Also (obviously) Cheez-Its, jerky, other stuff that lasts and offers solid calories, but mainly commenting to add: Campbell's Chunky Soups -- they're pretty hearty, a good variety of flavors, last a long time, and in a pinch (yes, I've been there) you an eat them cold, too.
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 13, 2022 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese stock fundamentals were superior to US stocks this decade
Replies: 167
Views: 12300

Re: Japanese stock fundamentals were superior to US stocks this decade

It explains why GMO calls the fund "GMO-Usonian," while continuing to leave mysterious the question of why Usonian , a "Japan equity manager," called itself "Usonian." I found it! "Usonian’s name was inspired by American architect Frank Lloyd Wright, who referenced Japanese culture as one of his primary influences. Wright was based in Chicago, yet some of his most important work was in Japan. Wright’s Usonian style of architecture reflected his philosophy that building owners should play an integral role in the design and development of their building, and not outsource everything to their architect. This philosophy closely parallels Usonian Investments’ view regarding the role investors should play as th...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 11, 2022 11:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese stock fundamentals were superior to US stocks this decade
Replies: 167
Views: 12300

Re: Japanese stock fundamentals were superior to US stocks this decade

nisiprius wrote: Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:10 pm I did a cursory search of the GMO website to try to understand what they meant by "Usonian," but failed. To me, "Usonian" is the adjective used by Frank Lloyd Wright in the 1930s, to mean "relating to the US" (in preference to "American.")
I was familiar with that term and its origins, so I just had to know more (how could a Japanese fund be Usonian?). The unfortunately boring answer appears to be that GMO recently acquired a company called Usonian Investments. Oh well: https://www.bloomberg.com/press-release ... nvestments
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 11, 2022 10:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2022 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 320
Views: 35928

Re: 2022 Hedge Fund contest

Awesome - I'm in 20th place for now, which is better than a coin flip at least! :moneybag

Meanwhile, thanks for organizing this and entering all the data. :sharebeer
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 09, 2022 10:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2022 Hedge Fund contest
Replies: 320
Views: 35928

Re: 2022 Hedge Fund contest

Noob Year Healthy Resolutions

Long:

UNH (United HealthCare)
BYND (Beyond Meat)
PTON (Peloton)

Short:

TSLA (Tesla)
GME (GameStop)
EXR (Extra Space Storage)
by Noobvestor
Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International in 2022 -- yay or nay? [Developed and Emerging markets]
Replies: 324
Views: 24919

Re: International in 2022 -- yay or nay?

abuss368 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 7:08 pm
Noobvestor wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 6:44 pm
strummer6969 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:51 pm With Covid still wreaking havoc across the world and the U.S. fed tightening, is it even worth considering?
I'm curious why you would infer from either of those that ex-US would do poorly. Those both seems like problems that would impact the US.
The US sneezes and the rest of the world catches cold?

Tony
OP didn't specify, but I guess I assumed they meant 'instead of' or 'in addition to' US. As in: if those are the things holding them back from global diversification within stocks, I don't get it. If those are things pushing them toward safer assets (fixed income), that would make more sense to me.
by Noobvestor
Fri Dec 31, 2021 6:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International in 2022 -- yay or nay? [Developed and Emerging markets]
Replies: 324
Views: 24919

Re: International in 2022 -- yay or nay?

strummer6969 wrote: Fri Dec 31, 2021 3:51 pm With Covid still wreaking havoc across the world and the U.S. fed tightening, is it even worth considering?
I'm curious why you would infer from either of those that ex-US would do poorly. Those both seems like problems that would impact the US.
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 12, 2021 10:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Should I capitulate to selling International?
Replies: 322
Views: 24214

Re: Should I capitulate to selling International?

If the US and international had reversed returns for the last decade, would you be going to 90/10 international/US? If not, stay the course.
by Noobvestor
Fri Dec 10, 2021 2:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?
Replies: 1587
Views: 210439

Re: Why the disdain for managed funds like ARKK that destroy total market funds?

I continue to hold my ARK holdings. 2021 has not been a great year (especially for ARK-G) but I'm happily holding these funds and continue to expect good things in the next few years as part of my portfolio. I also hold other assets that are non-Bogleheadish as part of my investment strategy. Although I personally think ARK is a bunch of hooey and definitely not my thing, I think the plain facts should be acknowledged. The total performance of ARKK even going back all the way to inception and including some lackluster years, has been excellent . The pullback since the top, so far, has been small compared to what went before. You could give half of the gain back and still be ahead of the S&P 500. You won on this gamble, and you are so f...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 17, 2021 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hi! I'm high inflation. Nice to meet you.
Replies: 980
Views: 110511

Re: Hi! I'm high inflation. Nice to meet you.

steve r wrote: Wed Nov 17, 2021 10:32 am
The idea that bonds are strictly for safety is a market reality that is new, and one that would have been viewed as utter nonsense when treasuries paid 7 or 8 percent nominal per year.
Nominal being the operative word. In real-dollar terms, what were they paying? Why not add that number?!
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 14, 2021 2:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1971159

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

I see more and more folks on this forum and others aiming for leverage based on this thread. And most aren't limiting to part of a strategy to a subset of holdings (as many advocate) - they're seeing how far they can leverage for max gains (at least while this bull market lasts). This worries me.

[Edited to delete some commentary]
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 12, 2021 6:18 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: High inflation investment options
Replies: 5
Views: 1157

Re: High inflation investment options

The trick is to hedge inflation *before* it happens. A little late to get on that train now, unless you know something the market doesn't. I say that because the nominal/real spread between Treasuries and TIPS suggests to me the market isn't expecting high inflation to continue.
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 12, 2021 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ben Carlson's Column today has some interesting thoughts on inflation
Replies: 197
Views: 22353

Re: Ben Carlson's Column today has some interesting thoughts on inflations

willthrill81 wrote: Thu Nov 11, 2021 11:08 am People keep saying that the bond market is expecting inflation to be low. I'm not sure how accurate that is
Well, TIPS are still yielding between -1.8% and -0.5%. If the nominal bond market is underpricing inflation, real-return bonds look like a free lunch.
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 08, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: OK - should I follow Vanguard's Portfolio watch or stick with Personal Capital?
Replies: 7
Views: 1233

Re: OK - should I follow Vanguard's Portfolio watch or stick with Personal Capital?

The portfolio watch tool is OK, but I wouldn't take anything it recommends as gospel. It warns me I have too much in emerging and too little in international bonds, but ... I tilt toward emerging on purpose, and avoid international bonds on purpose, too. If you have a good plan, stick too it. That said, I'm nervous about US stocks right now, so I'm going to back them up on 'add more international' but that's just one opinion. :D
by Noobvestor
Sun Oct 31, 2021 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book Explicitly Recommends Against TBM [Total Bond Market]
Replies: 164
Views: 18859

Re: Book Explicitly Recommends Against TBM [Total Bond Market]

I buy bonds for (a) safety and (b) correlation benefits. Treasuries work great on both fronts. Also, some for (c) inflation protection (TIPS and I Bonds). Purists are welcome to pick up total bond for simplicity, I don't think it's a huge mistake, just slightly suboptimal for my goals,
by Noobvestor
Wed Oct 27, 2021 2:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i-bonds will become useless [if their purchase limits are not indexed to inflation]
Replies: 126
Views: 13706

Re: i-bonds will become useless.

Thank you for your response. I disagree (to some extent) with your last point, specifically that this isn't an i-bond specific question. This is an i-bond specific question because the limits on i-bonds are what they are: Let's say I decide to accumulate $1m in bonds over ten years. I can't do that with i-bonds because the purchase limits are what they are. If, instead, I decided to accumulate $1m in total bond or tips or something. No problem. This is an order-of-operation issue. I want bonds. I decide I Bonds are my top pick. So I buy $10K/year of I Bonds. Then I have 90K/year to allocate across other bonds, like Treasuries or TIPS. It's not my ideal world scenario, but it works. Or I could just decide that with the $10K cap it's not wor...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i-bonds will become useless [if their purchase limits are not indexed to inflation]
Replies: 126
Views: 13706

Re: i-bonds will become useless.

000 wrote: Tue Oct 26, 2021 8:01 pm But for me I'm not sure that a guaranteed after-tax real loss with no zag potential and some liquidity issues is an investment I want to make for 30 years anyway.
Liquid after one year (with three-month interest penalty) and if you want flight-to-safety/correlation effects, a Treasury index pairs well with I Bonds. I have enough in liquid bond funds that I can rebalance a long way down without having to think about tapping into I Bonds.

As always, it's a matter of alternatives. TIPS have a guaranteed after-tax real loss too right now. And if that changes: sell I Bonds, buy TIPS.
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 26, 2021 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: i-bonds will become useless [if their purchase limits are not indexed to inflation]
Replies: 126
Views: 13706

Re: i-bonds will become useless.

Let's consider the usual options and their limits per year: Roth IRA limit: $6,000 (and I'm above the income threshold, so $0 for me) 401(k) limit: $19,500 I Bond limit: $10,000 EE bond limit: $10,000 I buy the maximum allowed of Series I and EE bonds annually. Together, that's more than I'm able to put into tax-advantaged retirement accounts. Seems like a lot to me. Sure, I wish the limit were higher, but $20K/year in tax-deferred bonds adds up over time, like anything. I don't really see the issue. But is it worth it? Is it worth giving up two or three decades of stock market returns to accumulate a meaningful supply of i-bonds for retirement? I don't know. The answer is a personal one. This isn't really a question about I Bonds specifica...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 23, 2021 7:18 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Seen new Dune Movie? Your opinion??
Replies: 226
Views: 19273

Re: Seen new Dune Movie? Your opinion??

I've watched/read multiple iterations of Dune (original movie, TV series, book) and I guess this one is probably best? Being quite familiar with the plot and story beats, it felt more like a rewatch to me, but for a new audience, it is a pretty good story with some interesting characters/layers.
hunoraut wrote: Sat Oct 23, 2021 4:36 pm There’s no liberty taken with the story, so its basically the same movie as the 1984 lynch version, but better produced and less exposition/narration.
This is basically it. If you've seen another Dune version, you've seen Dune. But this one had more money and newer production tech.
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 18, 2021 11:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I Bonds Mega Thread (I Bond Heads Rejoice!)
Replies: 6651
Views: 1203830

Re: I Bonds variable rate @ 3.54% in May

I have a couple questions regarding paying taxes on redeemed I-Bonds. According to the Treasury Direct website, there are two options for reporting taxes: (A) Report the interest every year on your federal income tax return (B) Defer reporting the interest until the bond is redeemed (I prefer this method) https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/research/indepth/ibonds/res_ibonds_itaxconsider.htm My questions: (1) Will I receive the 1099-INT form only when I cash out the I-Bonds, or every year I hold the I-Bonds? This video makes it seem like I may receive a 1099-INT every year (or maybe the user redeemed I-Bonds every year). https://www.treasurydirect.gov/indiv/tools/video/Printing-Your-1099-in-TreasuryDirect-(2020)-CC.mp4 (2) When purchasing...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 18, 2021 10:06 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Is Vanguard so bad?
Replies: 402
Views: 46659

Re: Is Vanguard so bad?

Booogle wrote: Sun Oct 17, 2021 6:12 am
illumination wrote: Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:37 pm I think there are much better options, like Schwab and Fidelity. They just seem to do everything right, their user interface and overall technology seems several years ahead.
If Fidelity's website is better than Vanguard, then Vanguard's website must be a total disaster.
Yeah, I don't get this pro-Fido sentiment at all. I've had both. Fidelity's was a stupid nightmare. Even looks like it was designed in the 90s. Vanguard's is completely functional, I can navigate to anywhere I need to be within two clicks. Everything is intuitive and the design even looks good.

Now if you're talking about the app, I couldn't say either way - but as a website: Fido is just a hot mess compared to Vanguard.
by Noobvestor
Thu Oct 14, 2021 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can somebody convince me to feel comfortable investing in international funds?
Replies: 98
Views: 11399

Re: Can somebody convince me to feel comfortable investing in international funds?

I highly recommend reading this for some perspective - if it doesn't convince you to diversify globally, probably nothing will:

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/03 ... ld-part-3/
by Noobvestor
Sun Oct 10, 2021 8:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Bonds more concerning than equities
Replies: 22
Views: 3268

Re: Bonds more concerning than equities

Jimsad wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:57 pm
delamer wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:45 pm
Jimsad wrote: Sun Oct 10, 2021 4:41 pm Even I am concerned . The stock market index is up about 17% YTD but total bond market is actually -2.2% YTD.
I was prepared for flat or low returns but not negative returns from the bond index !
Your concern is based in 10 months’ of returns?
I believe it was negative last year too and more likely to be negative going forward for few years
I have been looking for alternatives
Bond NAV being down means yields are up and future returns are higher. Also ... -2.2%? That's like the equivalent of one bad day for stocks. According to Vanguard's model portfolio page, an all-bond portfolio was down for the year 19 of the last 95 years. It happens and should be expected periodically.
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 09, 2021 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do I have to invest in Bonds
Replies: 80
Views: 9284

Re: Do I have to invest in Bonds

I sold a significant holding in an intermediate bond fund a couple months ago. Glad I did. Since that time, after a slight bump up in bond value, the prices have been getting crushed. With interest rates at near all-time lows and inflation rearing it's ugly head - I won't stand there and lean into a left hook. I'd rather sit a round or two out then get back into the ring when the fog clears. I don't think the Fed reserve will raise rates too high - but I have no doubt that rates going up 2-3% which will have an adverse effect on bond prices. And don't forget. Sometime rate increases are at the behest of the Federal Reserve. Those around during the Carter presidency know what I'm referring to. Stand your ground, but don't lose your common s...
by Noobvestor
Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The EE Bond Manifesto (A companion piece to Mel’s I Bond Manifesto)
Replies: 186
Views: 33278

Re: The EE Bond Manifesto (A companion piece to Mel’s I Bond Manifesto)

SnowBog wrote: Fri Sep 24, 2021 7:30 pm I do not attempt to include or adjust for their "future" value, as I'll only get that value if I hold for 20 years.
I used to do this as well, but I've changed my mind: I have more than enough in other assets to sustain myself until EE bonds are at 20 years. So now I count them up as if they earned ~3.5%/year annualized. Strictly speaking, it just isn't true -- if I cashed them out now I'd have to realize a big 'loss' relative to that amount. But ... I have 90%+ of my assets in other places, and I'm not worried about being forced to cash in early. YMMV.
by Noobvestor
Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The EE Bond Manifesto (A companion piece to Mel’s I Bond Manifesto)
Replies: 186
Views: 33278

Re: The EE Bond Manifesto (A companion piece to Mel’s I Bond Manifesto)

From a risk/return perspective, EE bonds are the best things I've bought since I started Boglehead-style investing. Give them 20 years and they give you a fabulous return in today's low-rate environment. I agree with caveats about duration, etc... but they're hard to beat if you have extra money to invet beyond tax-advantaged accounts and Series I bonds purchases. I didn't realize it at the time, but I've been buying a nice annuity for years ...
by Noobvestor
Mon Sep 27, 2021 9:08 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Robo Account vs Boglehead portfolio
Replies: 15
Views: 2481

Re: Robo Account vs Boglehead portfolio

Are you talking about a tax-advantaged or taxable account? If the former: it doesn't matter too much. If the latter: you can get sucked into a dark vortex of tax lots and the like from which you might never escape (at least not without paying a ton and/or headaches). To be clear: if this is taxable, keep it really simple - a three-fund or target-date type approach. If tax-advantaged, you can always change your mind later without huge hassles.