Search found 4550 matches

by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 15
Views: 1223

Re: GMO forecast

Thanks for tracking that, Robert - fascinating stuff! For anyone who couldn't get the link to work ... here's the most recent I could find: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/91bcbdf4c8cec3f01a91cfa33cd46ba3a69d238e.png Glad to see my small cash, moderate emerging markets (and 50% overall in...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?
Replies: 5
Views: 475

Re: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?

I'm going to try and parse this a bit. Hello all, Hello, and welcome to the forum! Given the fact that the fed is going to raise interest rates through the year, I'm trying to figure out for my short term bond allocation in my portfolio This knowledge is priced into the market. No sense in shortenin...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 1894

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

FWIW, I just had to make this decision, and went with VSIGX over VFIUX (I prefer to stick to Vanguard funds, so those were the options). I decided the lower expense ratio, simplicity of indexing, and vague possible benefits of an ETF share class made it a potentially better choice.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 26
Views: 1301

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth, Ignore Wall Street, and Get On with Your Life by Bill Schultheis is a good starting point.

I agree with others that the Boglehead's Guide is great, and there's free stuff online, but a book has a different heft to it somehow.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 1048

Re: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?

I think I Bonds are great, and hold I Bonds myself (along with EE, TIPS and Treasuries). I think using them in a 3-fund would be fine. That said, some potential downsides you might consider: 1) If you're picking I Bonds over putting money in tax-advantaged space, you could lose out on tax-advantaged...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 429

Re: Help me understand bonds

There are diminishing returns as you approach 100% stocks - diversification is the only free lunch. Check out this link from Vanguard, and decide if the risk was worth what you got historically for going beyond around 70% or 80% stocks: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/mode...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 1894

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

Well this is fascinating. I didn't even realize there were two different intermediate-term Treasury funds at Vanguard! I also concur that the active management of VFIUX could give that fund better returns, but the capital gains that the fund managers create seem to make that fund less suitable for a...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1135

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

For 10 basis points, take the Treasuries. Municipal bonds are almost always safe, but Treasuries have substantially lower credit risk. That's worth paying a little extra for. If you were really itching to save those 10 bps, you could probably build your own Treasury latter and not have to pay the f...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1135

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

Thank you all so much for your insights and opinions! So glad (as always) to have folks on this forum to help with things like this. I am still thinking about where to set the spread rule (for munis vs. Treasuries in the future), but definitely by .1%, and maybe as high as .5% makes sense. If you ca...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 155
Views: 10117

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I got spooked at the returns of Dec 2017 and Jan 2018, and rebalanced (stocks to bonds) a few times before rebalancing bands were hit. It worked out. Was thinking I should maybe swap back a bit last week, then forgot, but it's fine - I'm still basically right on my target allocation. So I've been wi...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1135

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

It's a no brainer. Treasuries for the win. The yield is good enough, and I want that "flight to safety" if the stock market really falls. For me, as long as the after-tax yield on Treasuries is within 1% of what I could get from CDs or munis, I always go with the Treasuries. Of course, I followed H...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1135

Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

My IPS calls for 50/50 TIPS/Treasuries on the bond side, but with flexibility for optimizing around taxes.* For various reasons, about half my bond allocation is in taxable. Right now, I have Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt in taxable and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities in tax-deferred...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4031

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

Market is up: 'yay, my equity-heavy portfolio is growing!'

Market is down: 'yay, I can rebalance from bonds, and buy more equities at a discount!'

Basically, cultivate an attitude that sees silver linings in both ups and downs.
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4789

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

thank you for all the responses so far. And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? my checkings account has an average cash balance of $500. everything else is invested. my current portfolio size is 65x my monthly expenses. however, in a worst case scenario where stocks crash 50%,...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4789

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

A couple of things to consider and ways of looking at it: This is (so far) a pretty minor correction, and feels like an exciting buying opportunity. But what about a 30% crash? 50%? And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? The 08/09 crash didn't bother me because I didn't have a ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Lessons (and a question)
Replies: 3
Views: 341

Re: Correlation Lessons (and a question)

Some prefer Total Bond for having a bit more yield and diversification, but in flights to safety during equities crashes, Treasuries do tend to perform best, and intermediate is often a favorite (less inflation/rate risk than long bonds). Here's a good thread on that from Robert T: https://www.bogle...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market. So what is the point of having international in your portfolio? No benefit in having international when the market is goin...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it. I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too* I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3615

Re: Market Timing

It is generally held that you cannot beat the market by timing it. Based on my studies, this appears to be true. Congrats! Good thing to realize. That being said, Uh oh. it seems to me that market timing (using a double moving average cross-over system) is worthwhile on a risk-adjusted basis. Yawn....
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16599

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Went to Subway to buy a sub with bitcoin. By the time I got there all I could afford was a bag of chips.... Haha. Just kidding. Real businesses don't take bitcoin. You mean like Overstock.com, Microsoft, Expedia.com, Whole Foods, and Dish Network? I'm not a Bitcoin proponent, but let's get the fact...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short NVDA?
Replies: 11
Views: 851

Re: Short NVDA?

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:26 am
In the address bar of my browser, it says www.bogleheads.org. What does your say?
:shock: :o :P

You go long, I'll go short ... touchdown1
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Japanese stocks down 7% overnight so far - is there a thread for that?!
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16599

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:00 am
Went to Subway to buy a sub with bitcoin. By the time I got there all I could afford was a bag of chips....

Haha. Just kidding. Real businesses don't take bitcoin.
:sharebeer
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16599

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

As of 2/5/2018, 9:51 p.m. coindesk.com is showing Bitcoin at $6,486.10. I was curious to see the change in price at coindesk from nis' post, but then became even more curious about the ads at the bottom! Conspiracy theories, mixed messages, the works. Forget bitcoin! Forget cryptos! Who wants to be...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

are we expecting another dumpster fire mañana as well ? International didn't save the day in 2000-2002 nor in 2008-2009 either. Many argue that international markets are becoming increasingly interdependent, leading to returns being more strongly correlated now than in the past. i'm quite disappoin...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance after today's drop?
Replies: 32
Views: 4346

Re: Rebalance after today's drop?

Newbie question here: After today's drop, I'm reading of some people rebalancing to a higher bond allocation. Is rebalancing during a drop considered a deviation of "stay the course?" Or is "stay the course" aimed at those wanting to sell? I'm currently at 60/40 and a little bummed out after today,...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

vanguard.com is down.... Yes it is....sigh...great timing. there's a market timing joke in here somewhere... Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today t...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5574
Views: 1260812

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Helo80 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:56 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:51 pm
vanguard.com is down....I'm guessing a lot of sellers. I'd like to think it's too many buyers, but the markets suggest otherwise.

Wow.... I submitted a buy order for TSM.... glad I did not wait to the last minute on this.
And that's it folks, ding ding ding! No more for today!
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've never rebalanced - Can I do ok without it?
Replies: 35
Views: 4149

Re: I've never rebalanced - Can I do ok without it?

Gnirk wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:54 pm
Not planning to rebalance, (over 90% of my portfolio is in taxable) but then I didn't have a high percentage to equities to begin with.
I'm mostly taxable too, so I rebalance a bit in tax-advantaged, but also use dividends - it's worked out well so far.
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now
Replies: 28
Views: 2802

Re: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now

If you have an IPS that specifies your glide path should change based on total portfolio value, and this trips one of the thresholds, follow the rules you wrote down for yourself. If your glide path is age-based, put this in your portfolio as you would any other amount of money. Either way, take thi...
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7901

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Nis covered things well, but a few more thoughts: I wonder if the Fed really controls long term interest rates. Even if they did (they don't), why would you care if you were holding a normal (short or intermediate duration) bond fund like most investors? I wonder what would happen if we had a spike ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finally going to invest, brother is FA
Replies: 89
Views: 6533

Re: Finally going to invest, brother is FA

Agree with the above - if you want more detailed feedback, provide us with his proposed portfolio. That said, I feel bad for you and for your brother. You're going to have to turn him down for your financial health, but also face a tough question: do you tell him that he is working for an unethical ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 33
Views: 5309

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

Thanks, I'll go ahead and do it then. I am actually excited to see yields finally creeping up. Which is making it harder for me to pull the trigger on EE Bonds this year. If I had bought EE bonds about a year ago like some here were recommending, I'd be nervous at this point. That 3.53% yield for a...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 353
Views: 39921

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

Dark is amazing. Ideally, switch to German w/English subtitles to watch. Also, try to get through an episode and a half before deciding to drop it - the first episode doesn't even really reveal the nature of the series, though it does open some interesting questions. I totally agree this series was...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 01, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stocks/Bonds relationship
Replies: 10
Views: 706

Re: Stocks/Bonds relationship

Here is a classic thread by Robert T analyzing the 'Diversifying Power of Long-Term Treasuries' - it's worth checking out: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?p=27634&highlight=#27634 The main focus is on how safe Treasury bonds have reacted during various big downturns. The 'sweet spot' ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6267

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Trailing earnings yield is 3.79%. 2 year treasury yield is 2.11% Your choice if that's worth the risk. It's looking less and less like it. I was 75/25 US/international a couple years ago but have transitioned to 60/40 now. Was contemplating a move to 50/50. 50/50 is a nice place to be IMHO. Half-an...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jan 31, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?
Replies: 63
Views: 4581

Re: Why do many bogleheads feel they can time the housing market but can't time the stock market?

Statements such as: "I'm going to rent for now and wait for the market to crash before I buy a home". I see these sentiments specifically for VHCOL locations such as SF, LA, NYC. VHCOL resident here, checking in. I don't know that I've seen a lot of comments like that example, but I'll give you my ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jan 31, 2018 2:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52
Replies: 52
Views: 6267

Re: Wow: Shiller PE is 34.52

Trailing earnings yield is 3.79%. 2 year treasury yield is 2.11% Your choice if that's worth the risk. It's looking less and less like it. I was 75/25 US/international a couple years ago but have transitioned to 60/40 now. Was contemplating a move to 50/50. 50/50 is a nice place to be IMHO. Half-an...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 29, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk
Replies: 49
Views: 5227

Re: The ''Bulletproof'' Wait and See Portfolio - Anti-Inflation and Minimum Risk

Assuming that you want to preserve your capital with a 4% average annual return, here is the allocation using ETFs: TLT = 25% VTI = 10% GLD = 5% CASH = 60% I'd be surprised if this returned 4% nominal, let alone 4% real. Vanguard is projecting 4% or so for a 60/40 stock/bond over the next decade. H...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 29, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

The four alternative funds ... The four alternatives we use are the AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPRX) and three funds from Stone Ridge (LENDX, SRRIX and AVRPX). We believe that an equal-weighted portfolio of these four funds has forward-looking return expectations similar to that of a globa...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jan 27, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?
Replies: 145
Views: 12631

Re: Starting to feel like the late 1990s?

Shiller called Housing in Bubble in 2003. Shiller called Stock market bubble July 2015. Shiller is supposed to be source of 'Irrational exuberance' by Greenspan in 1996. Listening to armchair economists can be injurous to your wealth. Is it different this time, who knows, but we have not had such l...
by Noobvestor
Sat Jan 27, 2018 6:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries
Replies: 86
Views: 12907

Re: Larry Swedroe: Rising Rates Increase Worries

The four alternative funds ... The four alternatives we use are the AQR Style Premia Alternative Fund (QSPRX) and three funds from Stone Ridge (LENDX, SRRIX and AVRPX). We believe that an equal-weighted portfolio of these four funds has forward-looking return expectations similar to that of a global...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jan 24, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any logic to picking multiple target date funds?
Replies: 16
Views: 1184

Re: Any logic to picking multiple target date funds?

No logic I can see. The idea is that Target Date funds provide a built-in glide path so you don't have to worry about moving toward safer assets as you approach/enter retirement. If you stacked a bunch of them, you'd effectively be taking the 'average' of the group, I think. So if you bought a Targe...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6067

Re: Am I being greedy?

My plan is to get to $2M and then re-evaluate Stick To Your Plan. If your risk tolerance is 100% equities through bull and bear markets, Go For It. Let Us Know When You Reach Your Milestone. :thumbsup :thumbsup Of course, it's always possible that by failing to diversify, this target amount will ne...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return
Replies: 43
Views: 3525

Re: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return

I rebalanced today - just 62/38 back to 60/40. It's not called for in my IPS, but permitted. As I see it, that's 2% of my portfolio that is now on the 'safe' side of things. Feels good looking at the dollar value - 'whew, I don't have to worry about that money' - even though it's just a small percent.
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6478

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

The is no magical reason why small and value companies should outperform. There were casual reasons. Just because there were casual reasons in the past does not mean that these casual reasons will hold tommorow. No magical reason, that's true. But either you believe small and value companies are ri...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6067

Re: Am I being greedy?

I used to kayak with an olympic level kayaker. One time, when we were scouting a class 5 rapid, I asked him if he thought I might die if I tried running it. His reply was "If you think you might die, you probably will." Wise advice. If you think you might be greedy, you probably are. (btw, I just n...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 51
Views: 6067

Re: Am I being greedy?

Fellow veteran noob here checking in. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. You can establish a glide path that takes both age and distance to goal into account. For example, you might go to 20% bonds now, and 30% when you hit $X, then 40% when you hit $Y, etc... As for physical assets: I don't th...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 33
Views: 2831

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:37 pm
Bogle initially rejected ETFs. Now Vanguard is playing catch up to Blackrock.
Hmmm. I thought they were ahead of the game by patenting the use of ETFs as a share class of mutual funds.
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 94
Views: 6478

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

- Negative: It's just random luck or an anomaly that it outperformed in the past. Large cap companies are more proven and deserve their heavier market weight status in Total Stock Market Index Fund. I tilt small/value but think this is a mis-characterization of total-market approaches. They don't '...