Search found 4439 matches

by Noobvestor
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 85
Views: 3086

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Surprised this isn't a more common answer, but: right here. All I knew before Bogleheads was 'diversify' (so I bought expensive, active and overlapping funds without much strategy) and 'don't sell during a crash' (so I hung in for 07/08 though didn't have much on the line).
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler
Replies: 16
Views: 2134

Re: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler

It allows you to have fewer total holdings. It lets you optimize for taxation purposes, which is particularly handy (I'd say essential, really) if you have any money in taxable accounts. Ideally, you'll have one account you can rebalance within. For instance, taxable might be 100% Total Stock, Roth ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Top tax bracket in CA - Bonds all muni?
Replies: 11
Views: 1023

Re: Top tax bracket in CA - Bonds all muni?

Let's not forget that if op ends up with long-term gains in this tax-exempt fund that they'll have to pay those to sell. Meanwhile, from another thread (TL;DR I use national muni funds): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=230543&p=3601487#p3601487 I can't figure out who would want ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year
Replies: 151
Views: 12642

Re: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year

Late 30s and I save less than nothing each year currently. I sold some businesses in my early 30s and am counting on the resulting portfolio to grow (it has a lot so far, knock on wood), and use that large nest egg to justify living a bit below my technical means (in terms of income). I work on stuf...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8696

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

I would feel amazing too, until inevitably at some point stocks doubled while bonds remained flat (see: last 5 years) and then I'd feel less than amazing. But hey, if you have an annuity covering all your expenses, power to you and don't look back.
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1898

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Time period selection makes a big difference. From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets went up by a whopping 170% while US was basically flat (slightly down if you adjust for inflation). Whether or not you tilt toward EM, international diversification is worthwhile IMHO.
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9323

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

'Apply the Vanguard Difference' and 'How do you prefer to invest' both changed things by only a few percent, which I found disappointing from the perspective of this being a tool to get more people to see the light (i.e. as someone who wants Vanguard marketing to work).
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3289

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I don't think I'll ever recover what I lost by going 30% international. I shouldn't have listened to people who think they're smarter than John Bogle. Now go back in time and imagine you started investing in the year 2000. Ten years later, you find yourself lamenting the fact that the US stock mark...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3289

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

Total World is a great fund in theory, and if it became a core fund in TD and LS funds I assume that would justify lowering its expense ratio and adding cheaper admiral shares, which would further bolster its popularity (I, for one, would recommend it to everyone!). And yes, I do think it's the natu...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond inflation irony?
Replies: 35
Views: 3568

Re: I-bond inflation irony?

Yes, the purchase limits do make them very difficult to match liabilities. Due to Inflation, $10k today doesn't pay for as much as it did a few years ago. My cynical side says that by not raising purchase limits, the treasury is trying to slowly phase out IBonds I assume this to be the case. As I u...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide
Replies: 19
Views: 1737

Re: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide

Assuming this is a tax-advantaged account, Vanguard Total Bond is a good option (why pay way more for Fido's version?). If you're in a taxable account, I recommend Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt. If you want inflation protection, you could mix in some TIPS. If you want to go ultra-safe, you ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2398

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

I don't know when he started tilting EU/EM, but if it was at the start of this year, he's doing pretty well for himself! http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VTSAX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A5%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defau...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: my plan for portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 809

Re: my plan for portfolio

60% VTSAX, 10% VBTLX, 20% VCSAX 10% PONDX = 60% Vanguard Total Stock - good 10% Vanguard Total Bond - good 20% Vanguard Consumer Staples - no need to bet on sectors 10% PIMCO Income Fund Class D - no need to pay .9% ER for a bond fund Ditch the last two, add Vanguard Total International. Assuming sa...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide
Replies: 19
Views: 1737

Re: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide

I think you're overthinking things. 1) There is no reason to pay high ERs for bond funds, especially in a low-yield environment. Expenses will eat up way too much return. Those funds that maybe did slightly better in the past, like PIMCO, did it by taking on more risk, and having more wiggle room du...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) or Roth 401(k)?
Replies: 21
Views: 1874

Re: 401(k) or Roth 401(k)?

I would opt for traditional in your situation. I dug into this for myself (also CA with similar taxes, hi!) a year or so ago, and with help from this forum decided Trad was the way to go. Among other things, the downsides of being 'wrong' aren't too great if you go this route - if you're in a higher...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 44587

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I just use a shortcut (VT ETF) if I'm curious as to weights: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=2

I'm 50/50 US/international. Tempted to tilt more international right now, but I'll stay the course.
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?
Replies: 3
Views: 362

Re: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?

Over a full thirty years, that .1% is going to amount to around $300 more (nominal, not real) dollars on a $10,000 I Bond. Not much in my book. Also: what if rates go up more in a year or so, and now you have to sell with a penalty to trade up? Also: have you done the tax math on cashing out? If you...
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”
Replies: 22
Views: 3094

Re: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”

However, Bogle admits that “perhaps the relative advantage achieved in the U.S. stock market over the past quarter-century has now been arbitraged away” and that international stocks may be relative bargains. Fascinating. Lots of respect for Jack, but he thought there was a free lunch in US investi...
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Options
Replies: 9
Views: 1207

Re: Bond Options

I can't figure out who would want CA tax-exempt over regular tax-exempt. I've considered it but rejected it personally. Consider these four funds and their yields (I'm using Vanguard's SEC yields): CA intermediate yield: 1.67% National intermediate yield: 1.74% CA long yield: 2.14% National long yie...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Re: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]

Wow, OK, good to know. I have non-covered shares too and just figured if I sold them they'd do it at the 'average cost' level - is that not the case? In my (possibly unusual) instance they're all from around the same time (2010ish?), so if I ever sell them it'd be all together ... probably? Or I'd j...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]
Replies: 6
Views: 499

Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]

I noticed this line in the Wiki regarding specific identification of shares at Vanguard: "If you sell shares online, send a secure Email on the same day with this information." "This information" refers to a bunch of personal info -- more here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Specific_identification...
by Noobvestor
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year T-note yield rising, compare to Ally CD
Replies: 5
Views: 1373

Re: 5-year T-note yield rising, compare to Ally CD

I would just point out that comparing rates/yields is one thing, but behavior in a portfolio matters. I prefer bond funds to CDs because in market downturns safe bonds often go up (not always) from flight-to-safety effects. So I don't think it's really about comparing small differences in rate/yield...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 68411

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

For the second time in the lat few years, I went back to the beginning and read this whole thread. Such amazing insights all around. :beer
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 23, 2017 12:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Currency risk?
Replies: 42
Views: 2548

Re: Currency risk?

...It's probably not a big error for a US investor to have zero weight in global equities... Now, that is the key point, I think. John C. Bogle has written that "Successful investing involves doing just a few things right and avoiding serious mistakes." Nobody has ever been able to convince me that...
by Noobvestor
Sat Oct 21, 2017 6:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?
Replies: 105
Views: 6776

Re: Has your "risk tolerance" been tested?

I just looked back at the 2015/2016 mini-crash and see that true to form, on August 24, 2017 when the market dropped 1,000 points, I purchased 50 SPY. I continued to buy throughout September. In January, I exchange my SPY for VTI and harvested a big tax loss and have been holding my VTI ever since ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7364

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I'll never understand this kind of argument. You don't use that logic for individual stocks or sectors, so why countries? We don't say 'well healthcare has done well and utilities poorly over the last 50 or 100 years so you should tilt toward one over the other.' Makes no sense for a passive invest...
by Noobvestor
Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: EE/Ibonds & Tax Advantaged Space
Replies: 25
Views: 1614

Re: EE/Ibonds & Tax Advantaged Space

I love my EE and I Bonds. 10K per type per year (more if you use the tax refund strategy for I Bonds). Between them, you've got inflation and deflation protection, tax-deferred, state tax exempt, etc.... The yields are pretty good considering what comparable bonds offer (e.g. individual TIPS or 20-y...
by Noobvestor
Fri Oct 13, 2017 12:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7364

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

Ex-US indexing hasn't worked well in the past - under-performance over long periods of time as mentioned above in this thread. It's possible to argue about the reasons and whether the next century will be like the last century, but the reality so far is what it is, and it's a huge red flag. So shou...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shooting for the moon as a young investor
Replies: 19
Views: 2077

Re: Shooting for the moon as a young investor

The earlier your invest wisely the more it compounds. The idea that if you're young you can afford to lose money is, in my opinion, entirely backward - you have more time to let compounding earn for you. You don't have to gamble on long shots that almost certainly will fail. If you want to gamble (a...
by Noobvestor
Tue Oct 03, 2017 9:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help with private investment opportunity
Replies: 47
Views: 2633

Re: Help with private investment opportunity

The earlier your invest wisely the more it compounds. The idea that you're young and can afford to lose money is, in my opinion, entirely backward - you're young and can let compounding earn for you. You don't have to gamble on long shots that almost certainly will fail.
by Noobvestor
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule and timing
Replies: 16
Views: 2354

Re: 4% rule and timing

Oh nice - thanks for the links Mike and dbr!
by Noobvestor
Sat Sep 30, 2017 12:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 3 stages of Financial Independence
Replies: 63
Views: 7225

Re: 3 stages of Financial Independence

I for sure definitely have goal to hit the 3rd category before declaring true FI (which for me comes to 1.2MM for category 1 and already atained at age 35, 3MM for category 2, and 7MM for category 3!) That's quite the spread. ~1MM or so makes sense for 1 to me, but more like 2MM and 3MM for 2 and 3...
by Noobvestor
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: TLTD - Int'l Developed Small/Value Tilt Fund
Replies: 9
Views: 743

Re: TLTD - Int'l Developed Small/Value Tilt Fund

.39% is far too rich for my tastes. Also, lots of data shows that small/value premiums are relatively independent of location (i.e. you can get your small and value tilts in the US, where's it's cheap and easy, and it won't really matter). And then there are your concerns, like: how well it actually...
by Noobvestor
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4% rule and timing
Replies: 16
Views: 2354

Re: 4% rule and timing

I'm equally curious about the reverse - what happens when your 4% (or whatever) SWR doubles you money over an unusually profitable decade (despite spending 4% each year) or similar? At what point do you adjust the SWR upward and make that a new starting point?
by Noobvestor
Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Edward Jones (again)
Replies: 28
Views: 2398

Re: Edward Jones (again)

d. there is perceived safety in making purchases or changes to the account through a known person (i.e. not an Internet transaction with questionable security safeguards - looming shades of the Equifax hacking nightmare as well as other scary hacks) Perceived is a critical word here. Adding a layer...
by Noobvestor
Sat Sep 23, 2017 2:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: the tax efficiency conundrum
Replies: 7
Views: 830

Re: the tax efficiency conundrum

That’s a helpful perspective, thanks. I just hate the thought of $50k sitting unproductive earning 1.5% much of which will be paid in taxes. Seems only slightly better than burying it in the back yard. You have to weigh hating that and having a fund that could dip 20-30% in a crash before you need ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How much money do you want to retire?
Replies: 276
Views: 25833

Re: A poll: How much money do you need to retire?

Would like $3,000,000 ideally - very flexible in that situation ($120,000/year SWR - me and a sig other with no income), but probably only need more like 2-2.5 to do most of what I want to do from year to year without any real worry (except maybe a home in a HCOL area). With luck, I'll be there in t...
by Noobvestor
Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 35369

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

Setting aside the two *additional* properties, I would love to know where in the Bay you can have a 2500 SF home on a quarter acre with a view of the Bay and the city for less than, say, 1MM (I'm assuming the other 1MM is tied up in the other two properties and liquid spending needs). I'm casting m...
by Noobvestor
Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 7212

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Nothing changes on my end. I don't own any international stocks or bonds. A simple two fund all U.S. 60/40 portfolio or one fund Vanguard Balanced Index Fund is all you need. Stay the Course and keep it Simple!! Vanguard Total World Stock + Total Bond Market is as simple or simpler. The main reason...
by Noobvestor
Thu Aug 03, 2017 1:19 am
Forum: Local Chapters and Bogleheads Community
Topic: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?
Replies: 369
Views: 33081

Re: Your USER NAME...what does it mean?

Lieutenant.Columbo wrote:
Noobvestor wrote:It means I lack foresight.
maybe, but you're witty
:beer
by Noobvestor
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 7212

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Many large US companies have significant international operations, so US stock markets are already somewhat international. Emerging markets seem riskier to me, and Europe has Brexit, PIGS, and diversity problems. If I were young or a billionaire, I'd be happy to gamble on international stocks becau...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jul 17, 2017 2:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is now time to move into international stocks?
Replies: 57
Views: 7212

Re: Is now time to move into international stocks?

Global market is around 50/50 US, give or take - has been for years. If you know better than the total market, tilt away (or toward or whatever)! If you don't (hint: you don't) maybe start with something like that, which, incidentally, is pretty neutral (no temptation to add or subtract a bit and ma...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jul 05, 2017 11:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?
Replies: 225
Views: 35369

Re: What's the ideal safe retirement net worth target?

$10M is a very standard number that people talk about in the Bay Area. That means decent but not too big house, small property in the mountain and some money in the bank. Nothing very fancy, pretty much basic stuff. More and more i hear 50M as THE Number. (In each bubble the number goes up, then it...
by Noobvestor
Wed May 24, 2017 11:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robo investing for the richer folks
Replies: 2
Views: 836

Re: Robo investing for the richer folks

The robos have a lot of advantages: 1) Automation and anti-Wall Street sentiments of younger folks 2) These younger folks don't have as much money yet, so AUM isn't really an issue 3) They can always ratchet up the prices later 4) Leaving a robo may mean tax headaches (cost basis tracking, etc...) I...
by Noobvestor
Wed May 24, 2017 11:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The dot com "do over" bull market?
Replies: 82
Views: 9149

Re: The dot com "do over" bull market?

Juicero? Uber? There's a lot more venture capital available now, so tech-based startups can get very large on private investment before ever doing an IPO. Never heard of Juicero - just tried to look it up and doesn't seem to be publicly traded? Probably start here: http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/...
by Noobvestor
Wed May 17, 2017 12:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Will Burst the Next Bubble?
Replies: 66
Views: 7643

Re: What Will Burst the Next Bubble?

I'm not sure how to attach an image so I'll just link it below. I know this has been posted on this forum before (Investor Equity Allocation vs 10 year SPX return). May offer some insight into return expectations going forward. http://www.philosophicaleconomics.com/2013/12/the-single-greatest-predi...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 24, 2017 10:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 43164

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Pretty sure my signature line says it all! Thanks for everything, Larry.
by Noobvestor
Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 22601

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

I recently bought a 7-year CD at 3%. I'd much rather take this bet than have to hold for 20 years to get 3.5%. If I can earn 4% for the remaining 13 years after the CD matures, I end up making 3.65%. Or maybe a CD will come along in less than 7 years with a rate high enough to justify paying the 1....
by Noobvestor
Fri Apr 21, 2017 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 321
Views: 22601

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

3.5% rate - higher than comparable treasuries (currently 2.6%) Tax-deferred until you cash them out Option to ditch out in the first few years if rates go up enough (but I started buying in 2012 and it's been a great deal) Nice way to balance out I Bonds (split 50/50 and it's 50/50 nominal/inflation...
by Noobvestor
Mon Apr 17, 2017 9:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: [Advice needed for mother's inheritance/finances.]
Replies: 129
Views: 15415

Re: Too much inheritance to handle. Advice needed

With the brokerage account, you will have tax consequences if you sell existing assets. So don't rush into selling until you understand the taxes you will owe. Better to leave things as they were before your father died. You could consult a CPA if needed. If there was an attorney who helped settle ...