Search found 4466 matches

by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2731

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

https://s8.postimg.org/50gexogw5/35by0pz.jpg.png Always entertaining to see that kind of coincidence in a binary comparison, but let's break things out by country and see what happens: I invest internationally because local stock markets can have wildly different returns even over long periods of t...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best High Risk/Growth Options for Taxable Account
Replies: 3
Views: 599

Re: Best High Risk/Growth Options for Taxable Account

No need to separate things into buckets. Just fill in the portfolio in a tax-efficient way - probably using Total Stock or Total International. Individual stocks give you more risk, but not more expected return.
by Noobvestor
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2731

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

Everyone will differ, but I think that's still on the 'light' end of the international spectrum (market weight would be 50/50 US/international). I'm 50/50 US/international, 50/50 developed emerging on the stock side, 100% US on the bond side. Vanguard's Target Date funds are 60/40 IIRC. And yup: mak...
by Noobvestor
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 2731

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

Vanguard Total International is all you really need. I happen to also tilt toward emerging, using their emerging markets index. I don't worry about currency risk (it cuts both ways, plus all my bonds are USD).
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 27
Views: 2518

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Asset allocations and forward returns
Image

Look at that lonely and sad 60/40 without ex-US equities - a good reminder to diversify internationally!
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 3936

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

livesoft wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:12 pm
This thread is probably confirmation of something.
Too true. I also wonder who op is trying to convince: us or themselves?
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision
Replies: 36
Views: 2078

Re: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision

A few considerations for me personally: 1) I have a lot of money in taxable accounts, so I like the tax deferral 2) I have series I bonds and like the balance of having some nominal bonds 3) I will likely end up in a high-tax state (MN or CA) so the state tax exemption is a bonus 4) Doubling rate is...
by Noobvestor
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock/Bond Percentage
Replies: 4
Views: 659

Re: International Stock/Bond Percentage

I'm 50% international stocks, 0% international bonds. Why? The global stock market is around 50/50, so that's a good baseline, and I believe in geographical, economic, political and currency diversification. That said, on the bond side, currencies will dominate returns, and yields are very low outsi...
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4626

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

I'm actually kind of a fan of the PP, though you probably couldn't tell from my last post about recent returns. But I do wonder if it has fallen somewhat more out of view in recent years (and/or if Craig stopped working on his site) due to recent performance. I also wonder if maybe the weights of th...
by Noobvestor
Fri Dec 01, 2017 2:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4626

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

Looks like he either let the domain lapse, or sold it to some boring SEO blogger who is trying to use its residual finance-related backlinks to promote listy generic ad-monetized content. Sad. Would have been nice if he'd at least left it up as an archive. Meanwhile, the 'never goes negative!' PP s...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 29, 2017 12:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 30
Views: 4626

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

Looks like he either let the domain lapse, or sold it to some boring SEO blogger who is trying to use its residual finance-related backlinks to promote listy generic ad-monetized content. Sad. Would have been nice if he'd at least left it up as an archive. Meanwhile, the 'never goes negative!' PP se...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 27, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Value (economics) "Economic value is a measure of the benefit provided by a good or service to an economic agent. It is generally measured relative to units of currency, and the interpretation is therefore 'what is the maximum amount of money a specific actor is willing and able to pay for the good...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 27, 2017 8:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Value (economics) "Economic value is a measure of the benefit provided by a good or service to an economic agent. It is generally measured relative to units of currency, and the interpretation is therefore 'what is the maximum amount of money a specific actor is willing and able to pay for the good...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

You are arguing that they should be valued based on what you would pay for them, while aj76er says you should claim them based on the money you can extract from them. This is an interesting situation because the difference between these two numbers will become very significant as the holding period...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 27, 2017 4:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600
Replies: 138
Views: 10727

Re: Didn't buy Bitcoin at $4600

I remember trying to buy some when it was $32, maybe a few dozen. I thought it was kind of expensive, but figured 'why not?' Then I got bogged down in the complexity and gave up on it. So if you feel bad about missing out on doubling, imagine that for a moment. I get a twinge or regret too, but deep...
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 24, 2017 2:02 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Screwed Up My Cost Basis - FIFO Instead of Spec ID
Replies: 12
Views: 1479

Re: Vanguard Screwed Up My Cost Basis - FIFO Instead of Spec ID

That kind of thing just scares the heck out of me. I mean this should all be simple stuff in their computer system, right? I have no plans to move away from Vanguard but ... really, they need to get their act together - I would pay slightly higher ERs for a better sense of security.
by Noobvestor
Thu Nov 23, 2017 10:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Vanguard Screwed Up My Cost Basis - FIFO Instead of Spec ID
Replies: 12
Views: 1479

Vanguard Screwed Up My Cost Basis - FIFO Instead of Spec ID

So I went to sell a bunch of small lots of a bond fund that were adding clutter to my brain (and for other reasons), and something went wrong. There are at least three checks along the way that I made sure were in order as I went to do the sale: 1) Spec ID is selected for my cost basis on all taxabl...
by Noobvestor
Thu Nov 23, 2017 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

While not directly addressing the "how to value" question, here's another way to look at EE Bonds. It's a Forbes column I did some time ago about building your own annuity with EE Bonds. https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-annuity/#1bd4c0047ba3 Hi Mel! Thanks fo...
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 21, 2017 10:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Tax gain harvesting for students; how important is it to move away from AcgCost? Can SpecID be reverse-engineered?
Replies: 10
Views: 855

Re: Tax gain harvesting for students; how important is it to move away from AcgCost? Can SpecID be reverse-engineered?

I would sell all pre-2012 and restart, assuming it doesn't cost a ton in taxes. I was in a position to do that in 2012 with minimal gains, didn't, and regret now having some old costs that Vangaurd only keeps track of the average for. Everything newer they have nicely tracked out. As for how much yo...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:54 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is a solo-401k worth it?
Replies: 13
Views: 1413

Re: Is a solo-401k worth it?

Couldn't you roll the Solo 401K into an SEP IRA after some period? What about skipping the backdoor for a year? Not an expert, but since this was unanswered figured I'd take a shot. I don't know ... to me, it doesn't seem worth it, but it's all relative. I haven't set up an HSA despite nice tax adva...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2017 11:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

While not directly addressing the "how to value" question, here's another way to look at EE Bonds. It's a Forbes column I did some time ago about building your own annuity with EE Bonds. https://www.forbes.com/sites/thebogleheadsview/2013/03/01/build-your-own-annuity/#1bd4c0047ba3 Hi Mel! Thanks fo...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

So those investing in EE bonds are betting that the next 20 years of stock returns will be worse than every prior 20 year period in the historic record save one. I don't have that much confidence in my crystal ball. Since this is largely covered in the other thread, I won't go too far down this rab...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2017 5:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I don't understand the case for EE bonds
Replies: 322
Views: 24042

Re: I don't understand the case for EE bonds

People on this board keep trying to compare EE bonds to stocks and other investments. They should only be compared to long term bonds. .... If Larry were here, he might say to think about each within the context of the whole portfolio, not in isolation. It's obvious to me that both positions are ri...
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 20, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I agree with willthrill. An EE-bond within a portfolio should be valued as what it is presently worth. For an EE-bond prior to maturity, this would be the face value plus the 0.1% interest accrued thus far. The 3.53% rate is simply a mental accounting for what the 20yr holding period returns; not a...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I'm not trying to cast this as a bonds vs. stocks debate. My point, rather, is that EE bonds are so different from other bonds that they should be treated as qualitatively distinct. Perhaps so, but again I'm coming at this from a portfolio construction perspective - they may not act like bonds, cas...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

Seems reasonable, as long as you have sufficient other bonds and/or emergency fund (cash) to cover a long period of a down market. I have some cash and I Bonds in taxable as well as a lot of stocks - I could spend down most of my portfolio without touching EE bonds. If you wish to base the value of...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 19, 2017 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds
Replies: 88
Views: 11257

Re: Valuation of EE Savings Bonds

I was thinking about this again and I'm revising my answer from four years ago: on my spreadsheets, I have started adding 5% each year (over initial value). For instance, a $10,000 EE bond bought 5 years ago would be marked $1,250 on the spreadsheet. Why? Because these are the last things I would se...
by Noobvestor
Thu Nov 16, 2017 11:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 5213

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

Surprised this isn't a more common answer, but: right here. All I knew before Bogleheads was 'diversify' (so I bought expensive, active and overlapping funds without much strategy) and 'don't sell during a crash' (so I hung in for 07/08 though didn't have much on the line).
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler
Replies: 21
Views: 2796

Re: Is treating all accounts as one bucket really simpler

It allows you to have fewer total holdings. It lets you optimize for taxation purposes, which is particularly handy (I'd say essential, really) if you have any money in taxable accounts. Ideally, you'll have one account you can rebalance within. For instance, taxable might be 100% Total Stock, Roth ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:42 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Top tax bracket in CA - Bonds all muni?
Replies: 11
Views: 1099

Re: Top tax bracket in CA - Bonds all muni?

Let's not forget that if op ends up with long-term gains in this tax-exempt fund that they'll have to pay those to sell. Meanwhile, from another thread (TL;DR I use national muni funds): https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=230543&p=3601487#p3601487 I can't figure out who would want ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:31 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year
Replies: 150
Views: 13196

Re: How old are you and how much do you save for retirement a year

Late 30s and I save less than nothing each year currently. I sold some businesses in my early 30s and am counting on the resulting portfolio to grow (it has a lot so far, knock on wood), and use that large nest egg to justify living a bit below my technical means (in terms of income). I work on stuf...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8990

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

I would feel amazing too, until inevitably at some point stocks doubled while bonds remained flat (see: last 5 years) and then I'd feel less than amazing. But hey, if you have an annuity covering all your expenses, power to you and don't look back.
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 08, 2017 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?
Replies: 19
Views: 1979

Re: Emerging Markets - Returns Lower than Claimed?

Time period selection makes a big difference. From 2000 to 2010 emerging markets went up by a whopping 170% while US was basically flat (slightly down if you adjust for inflation). Whether or not you tilt toward EM, international diversification is worthwhile IMHO.
by Noobvestor
Tue Nov 07, 2017 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"
Replies: 54
Views: 9541

Re: "$1 Million is Closer Than You Think"

'Apply the Vanguard Difference' and 'How do you prefer to invest' both changed things by only a few percent, which I found disappointing from the perspective of this being a tool to get more people to see the light (i.e. as someone who wants Vanguard marketing to work).
by Noobvestor
Mon Nov 06, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3467

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

I don't think I'll ever recover what I lost by going 30% international. I shouldn't have listened to people who think they're smarter than John Bogle. Now go back in time and imagine you started investing in the year 2000. Ten years later, you find yourself lamenting the fact that the US stock mark...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. & International Allocation
Replies: 36
Views: 3467

Re: U.S. & International Allocation

Total World is a great fund in theory, and if it became a core fund in TD and LS funds I assume that would justify lowering its expense ratio and adding cheaper admiral shares, which would further bolster its popularity (I, for one, would recommend it to everyone!). And yes, I do think it's the natu...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I-bond inflation irony?
Replies: 35
Views: 3700

Re: I-bond inflation irony?

Yes, the purchase limits do make them very difficult to match liabilities. Due to Inflation, $10k today doesn't pay for as much as it did a few years ago. My cynical side says that by not raising purchase limits, the treasury is trying to slowly phase out IBonds I assume this to be the case. As I u...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide
Replies: 19
Views: 1807

Re: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide

Assuming this is a tax-advantaged account, Vanguard Total Bond is a good option (why pay way more for Fido's version?). If you're in a taxable account, I recommend Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt. If you want inflation protection, you could mix in some TIPS. If you want to go ultra-safe, you ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Nov 05, 2017 1:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets
Replies: 19
Views: 2476

Re: Dr. Shiller's Portfolio is Tilted Toward Europe and Emerging Markets

I don't know when he started tilting EU/EM, but if it was at the start of this year, he's doing pretty well for himself! http://quotes.morningstar.com/chart/fund/chart.action?t=VTSAX®ion=usa&culture=en-US&dataParams=%7B%22zoomKey%22%3A5%2C%22version%22%3A%22US%22%2C%22showNav%22%3Atrue%2C%22defau...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: my plan for portfolio
Replies: 9
Views: 849

Re: my plan for portfolio

60% VTSAX, 10% VBTLX, 20% VCSAX 10% PONDX = 60% Vanguard Total Stock - good 10% Vanguard Total Bond - good 20% Vanguard Consumer Staples - no need to bet on sectors 10% PIMCO Income Fund Class D - no need to pay .9% ER for a bond fund Ditch the last two, add Vanguard Total International. Assuming sa...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide
Replies: 19
Views: 1807

Re: I came up with a Bond plan.....Good or Bad...you decide

I think you're overthinking things. 1) There is no reason to pay high ERs for bond funds, especially in a low-yield environment. Expenses will eat up way too much return. Those funds that maybe did slightly better in the past, like PIMCO, did it by taking on more risk, and having more wiggle room du...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401(k) or Roth 401(k)?
Replies: 21
Views: 1993

Re: 401(k) or Roth 401(k)?

I would opt for traditional in your situation. I dug into this for myself (also CA with similar taxes, hi!) a year or so ago, and with help from this forum decided Trad was the way to go. Among other things, the downsides of being 'wrong' aren't too great if you go this route - if you're in a higher...
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How much international stock? A suggestion.
Replies: 228
Views: 45908

Re: How much international stock? A suggestion.

I just use a shortcut (VT ETF) if I'm curious as to weights: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/ ... =INT#tab=2

I'm 50/50 US/international. Tempted to tilt more international right now, but I'll stay the course.
by Noobvestor
Sat Nov 04, 2017 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?
Replies: 3
Views: 382

Re: Replacing 0% I-bond... or not?

Over a full thirty years, that .1% is going to amount to around $300 more (nominal, not real) dollars on a $10,000 I Bond. Not much in my book. Also: what if rates go up more in a year or so, and now you have to sell with a penalty to trade up? Also: have you done the tax math on cashing out? If you...
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 03, 2017 10:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”
Replies: 22
Views: 3159

Re: Paul Merriman on newest edition of “The Little Book of Common Sense Investing”

However, Bogle admits that “perhaps the relative advantage achieved in the U.S. stock market over the past quarter-century has now been arbitraged away” and that international stocks may be relative bargains. Fascinating. Lots of respect for Jack, but he thought there was a free lunch in US investi...
by Noobvestor
Fri Nov 03, 2017 1:45 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Options
Replies: 9
Views: 1237

Re: Bond Options

I can't figure out who would want CA tax-exempt over regular tax-exempt. I've considered it but rejected it personally. Consider these four funds and their yields (I'm using Vanguard's SEC yields): CA intermediate yield: 1.67% National intermediate yield: 1.74% CA long yield: 2.14% National long yie...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 01, 2017 11:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Re: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]

Wow, OK, good to know. I have non-covered shares too and just figured if I sold them they'd do it at the 'average cost' level - is that not the case? In my (possibly unusual) instance they're all from around the same time (2010ish?), so if I ever sell them it'd be all together ... probably? Or I'd j...
by Noobvestor
Wed Nov 01, 2017 5:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]
Replies: 6
Views: 527

Spec ID at VG - BH wiki out of date? [Need help with cost basis]

I noticed this line in the Wiki regarding specific identification of shares at Vanguard: "If you sell shares online, send a secure Email on the same day with this information." "This information" refers to a bunch of personal info -- more here: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Specific_identification...
by Noobvestor
Thu Oct 26, 2017 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 5-year T-note yield rising, compare to Ally CD
Replies: 5
Views: 1410

Re: 5-year T-note yield rising, compare to Ally CD

I would just point out that comparing rates/yields is one thing, but behavior in a portfolio matters. I prefer bond funds to CDs because in market downturns safe bonds often go up (not always) from flight-to-safety effects. So I don't think it's really about comparing small differences in rate/yield...
by Noobvestor
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I can't believe I am thinking this [Panic and Survival 2008-09]
Replies: 242
Views: 69278

Re: I can't believe I am thinking this

For the second time in the lat few years, I went back to the beginning and read this whole thread. Such amazing insights all around. :beer