Search found 4567 matches

by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 23, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About
Replies: 34
Views: 1726

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Investors Should Worry About

A few open questions for anyone who wants to venture an answer: 1) What would someone do who agreed with Larry's prognosis but didn't want to venture outside of, say, Vanguard funds? 2) I know their histories are limited, but has he or anyone back-tested these funds alone or in combination, in theor...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 0.46% more after-tax yield enough to justify muni risk?
Replies: 9
Views: 971

Re: Is 0.46% more after-tax yield enough to justify muni risk?

VBTLX isn't tax efficient and, as others have pointed out, it also carries a mix of risks that are hard to compare directly. I would compare to VSIAX, intermediate-term Treasuries. Indeed, I had the same question recently, and given the state savings of Treasuries versus the federal savings of tax-e...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices
Replies: 36
Views: 6266

Re: Why investors shouldn’t panic over falling bond prices

Should I be comparing the APR of a CD to the equivalent average annual returns on the bonds (in this case 2.02% for 1yr)? Use SEC yield for funds. The other numbers are backward looking, like it would be to say "last year I made 2.5% in a 1 year CD at X Bank" -- well, that was then and I need to lo...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:10 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?
Replies: 14
Views: 1214

Re: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?

Whenever I've run the numbers on state-specific versus federal muni funds (adjusting for taxes), they have come out around even (and that's being in CA, a high-state-tax state). When comparing muni funds, it's better to compare the taxes assuming the same yield; any yield difference is compensation...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 22, 2018 12:00 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

So, is my case a good situation to Tax Loss Harvest? Say, I sell these bonds and take a loss of $2,600... I can apply this loss to my ordinary income and get 33% back? So, in this situation I decrease my "losses" from $2,600 to $1,742. Then I can wait 30 days to avoid wash sale rules and pickup VBT...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Still lose with bonds even at duration
Replies: 18
Views: 2050

Re: Still lose with bonds even at duration

You have just demonstrated why you should not hold taxable bonds in taxable when you're in the 33% tax bracket. http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/tax-analysis.action?t=VBTLX®ion=usa&culture=en_US Paul What's the alternative if you're out of space in tax-deferred? Put everything in munis? T...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 64
Views: 4790

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

A lot of tail-wagging-the-dog advice here. Don't let taxes be the only factor in your decision. Step 0 is to educate yourself on all your holdings to decide which you want to keep. For anything you don't understand or are unwilling to devote the time to, sell ASAP. Or to quickly simplify your portf...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Edited to delete content re:whoops - I read the ticker wrong (thanks aptly-named visualguy for noticing!)
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 73
Views: 10621

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 21, 2018 10:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?
Replies: 14
Views: 1214

Re: For munis: state specific or non-state specific funds best?

Whenever I've run the numbers on state-specific versus federal muni funds (adjusting for taxes), they have come out around even (and that's being in CA, a high-state-tax state). I would recommend doing the math on your tax bracket with actual fund yields. When the results are close to the same, I ha...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 64
Views: 4790

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

Something else to consider: use the Vanguard 'Portfolio Watch' tool set to see what your actual current breakdowns are for stocks/bonds, US/international, etc... it will help you keep track of the big picture as you try to wind down these individual holdings.
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 3:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?
Replies: 64
Views: 4790

Re: How do I unwind this Wealthfront mess?

Well ... huh. I didn't know Wealthfront or any of the robos traded individual stocks. Was that your choice? Painful, regardless. Here's what I'd recommend, or do myself, more or less in order: 1) Hold anything with short-term gains long enough for them to become long-term gains 2) Assess your future...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 20, 2018 2:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7460

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

So just to clarify along the same lines, those who hold the Vanguard or Fidelity total international fund, are they protected against the USD being weak in the future? If so, then why isn't international investing accepted unanimously on this forum (a lot of folks only like holding the total US sto...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 1:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias
Replies: 113
Views: 7460

Re: A Case for Higher Int'l Allocation? Larry Swedroe article on home bias

I don’t own a dozen stocks because rebalancing on my own would be a pain - also I saw a study that showed owning the largest 40 companies provided substantially the same diversification effects as the S&P 500 so I wouldn’t be too opposed to only having 40 companies. Citation please? Quoting Bill Be...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 73
Views: 10621

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the market knows that already. Interesting to note the current statistics from Vanguard’s website below. Though emerging markets and the U.S. market currently have almost identical projected earnings growth rates and return-on-equity, the...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 19, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 73
Views: 10621

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Personally I would move away from any "emerging market" funds, not only has it gotten nowhere so long, but I think it will continue to go nowhere because emerging markets are corrupt so you dont ever get accurate anything and all their stocks are corrupt due to false numbers, data, bribary etc... I...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 18, 2018 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.
Replies: 39
Views: 3919

Re: I reduced my exposure to US stocks before the correction.

International/emerging have looked like better deals for years now. At a few points, I thought idly about tilting more in that direction (I'm 50/50 US/international) - it would not have worked out to my advantage. To critics of OP: Bogle has himself tilted his portfolio modestly based on market valu...
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 17, 2018 10:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO forecast
Replies: 17
Views: 1599

Re: GMO forecast

Thanks for tracking that, Robert - fascinating stuff! For anyone who couldn't get the link to work ... here's the most recent I could find: https://www.advisorperspectives.com/images/91bcbdf4c8cec3f01a91cfa33cd46ba3a69d238e.png Glad to see my small cash, moderate emerging markets (and 50% overall in...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?
Replies: 13
Views: 857

Re: Short treasuries or short term bond index fund?

I'm going to try and parse this a bit. Hello all, Hello, and welcome to the forum! Given the fact that the fed is going to raise interest rates through the year, I'm trying to figure out for my short term bond allocation in my portfolio This knowledge is priced into the market. No sense in shortenin...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2009

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

FWIW, I just had to make this decision, and went with VSIGX over VFIUX (I prefer to stick to Vanguard funds, so those were the options). I decided the lower expense ratio, simplicity of indexing, and vague possible benefits of an ETF share class made it a potentially better choice.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 9:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?
Replies: 45
Views: 2852

Re: Which book for an 18 year old who is asking about investing?

The Coffeehouse Investor: How to Build Wealth, Ignore Wall Street, and Get On with Your Life by Bill Schultheis is a good starting point.

I agree with others that the Boglehead's Guide is great, and there's free stuff online, but a book has a different heft to it somehow.
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 16, 2018 2:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?
Replies: 9
Views: 1267

Re: I bonds instead of Total bond in a 3-fund portfolio?

I think I Bonds are great, and hold I Bonds myself (along with EE, TIPS and Treasuries). I think using them in a 3-fund would be fine. That said, some potential downsides you might consider: 1) If you're picking I Bonds over putting money in tax-advantaged space, you could lose out on tax-advantaged...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 15, 2018 12:39 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help me understand bonds
Replies: 3
Views: 443

Re: Help me understand bonds

There are diminishing returns as you approach 100% stocks - diversification is the only free lunch. Check out this link from Vanguard, and decide if the risk was worth what you got historically for going beyond around 70% or 80% stocks: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/saving-investing/mode...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 11:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts
Replies: 17
Views: 2009

Re: Best Treasury Bond Fund/ETF for Taxable Accounts

Well this is fascinating. I didn't even realize there were two different intermediate-term Treasury funds at Vanguard! I also concur that the active management of VFIUX could give that fund better returns, but the capital gains that the fund managers create seem to make that fund less suitable for a...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1210

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

For 10 basis points, take the Treasuries. Municipal bonds are almost always safe, but Treasuries have substantially lower credit risk. That's worth paying a little extra for. If you were really itching to save those 10 bps, you could probably build your own Treasury latter and not have to pay the f...
by Noobvestor
Wed Feb 14, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1210

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

Thank you all so much for your insights and opinions! So glad (as always) to have folks on this forum to help with things like this. I am still thinking about where to set the spread rule (for munis vs. Treasuries in the future), but definitely by .1%, and maybe as high as .5% makes sense. If you ca...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 11:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Did you learn anything from the market correction?
Replies: 160
Views: 11146

Re: Did you learn anything from the market correction?

I got spooked at the returns of Dec 2017 and Jan 2018, and rebalanced (stocks to bonds) a few times before rebalancing bands were hit. It worked out. Was thinking I should maybe swap back a bit last week, then forgot, but it's fine - I'm still basically right on my target allocation. So I've been wi...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1210

Re: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

It's a no brainer. Treasuries for the win. The yield is good enough, and I want that "flight to safety" if the stock market really falls. For me, as long as the after-tax yield on Treasuries is within 1% of what I could get from CDs or munis, I always go with the Treasuries. Of course, I followed H...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 13, 2018 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable
Replies: 15
Views: 1210

Deciding Between Treasuries and Munis in Taxable

My IPS calls for 50/50 TIPS/Treasuries on the bond side, but with flexibility for optimizing around taxes.* For various reasons, about half my bond allocation is in taxable. Right now, I have Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt in taxable and Vanguard Inflation-Protected Securities in tax-deferred...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?
Replies: 70
Views: 4118

Re: How does one emotionally keep it together during market swings?

Market is up: 'yay, my equity-heavy portfolio is growing!'

Market is down: 'yay, I can rebalance from bonds, and buy more equities at a discount!'

Basically, cultivate an attitude that sees silver linings in both ups and downs.
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4895

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

thank you for all the responses so far. And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? my checkings account has an average cash balance of $500. everything else is invested. my current portfolio size is 65x my monthly expenses. however, in a worst case scenario where stocks crash 50%,...
by Noobvestor
Sun Feb 11, 2018 12:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: how did you determine your risk tolerance?
Replies: 103
Views: 4895

Re: how did you determine your risk tolerance?

A couple of things to consider and ways of looking at it: This is (so far) a pretty minor correction, and feels like an exciting buying opportunity. But what about a 30% crash? 50%? And how much do you have in the market, relatively speaking? The 08/09 crash didn't bother me because I didn't have a ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Correlation Lessons (and a question)
Replies: 3
Views: 344

Re: Correlation Lessons (and a question)

Some prefer Total Bond for having a bit more yield and diversification, but in flights to safety during equities crashes, Treasuries do tend to perform best, and intermediate is often a favorite (less inflation/rate risk than long bonds). Here's a good thread on that from Robert T: https://www.bogle...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

I have a feeling Buffett and Bogle have been right all along. There is no need for international in the portfolio. The total international index is falling more than US market. So what is the point of having international in your portfolio? No benefit in having international when the market is goin...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

First it's great that this thread has been running since 2011... Hope to check back in a year or 10 on it. I'm feeling like current horror sequel is "International Stocks in Freefall Too* I was thinking along the lines of @parsi1 's post, about the arguable value of international. As of late, there...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Timing
Replies: 71
Views: 3635

Re: Market Timing

It is generally held that you cannot beat the market by timing it. Based on my studies, this appears to be true. Congrats! Good thing to realize. That being said, Uh oh. it seems to me that market timing (using a double moving average cross-over system) is worthwhile on a risk-adjusted basis. Yawn....
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16693

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Went to Subway to buy a sub with bitcoin. By the time I got there all I could afford was a bag of chips.... Haha. Just kidding. Real businesses don't take bitcoin. You mean like Overstock.com, Microsoft, Expedia.com, Whole Foods, and Dish Network? I'm not a Bitcoin proponent, but let's get the fact...
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short NVDA?
Replies: 11
Views: 861

Re: Short NVDA?

whodidntante wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:26 am
In the address bar of my browser, it says www.bogleheads.org. What does your say?
:shock: :o :P

You go long, I'll go short ... touchdown1
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Japanese stocks down 7% overnight so far - is there a thread for that?!
by Noobvestor
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16693

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

Nate79 wrote:
Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:00 am
Went to Subway to buy a sub with bitcoin. By the time I got there all I could afford was a bag of chips....

Haha. Just kidding. Real businesses don't take bitcoin.
:sharebeer
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bitcoin in Freefall
Replies: 162
Views: 16693

Re: Bitcoin in Freefall

As of 2/5/2018, 9:51 p.m. coindesk.com is showing Bitcoin at $6,486.10. I was curious to see the change in price at coindesk from nis' post, but then became even more curious about the ads at the bottom! Conspiracy theories, mixed messages, the works. Forget bitcoin! Forget cryptos! Who wants to be...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

are we expecting another dumpster fire mañana as well ? International didn't save the day in 2000-2002 nor in 2008-2009 either. Many argue that international markets are becoming increasingly interdependent, leading to returns being more strongly correlated now than in the past. i'm quite disappoin...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Rebalance after today's drop?
Replies: 32
Views: 4369

Re: Rebalance after today's drop?

Newbie question here: After today's drop, I'm reading of some people rebalancing to a higher bond allocation. Is rebalancing during a drop considered a deviation of "stay the course?" Or is "stay the course" aimed at those wanting to sell? I'm currently at 60/40 and a little bummed out after today,...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

vanguard.com is down.... Yes it is....sigh...great timing. there's a market timing joke in here somewhere... Actually, I find all of these comments about buying today to be quite funny. The Boglehead philosophy says "don't time the market," yet many here are shoving far more into the market today t...
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in freefall
Replies: 5600
Views: 1265912

Re: U.S. stocks in freefall

Helo80 wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:56 pm
eye.surgeon wrote:
Mon Feb 05, 2018 3:51 pm
vanguard.com is down....I'm guessing a lot of sellers. I'd like to think it's too many buyers, but the markets suggest otherwise.

Wow.... I submitted a buy order for TSM.... glad I did not wait to the last minute on this.
And that's it folks, ding ding ding! No more for today!
by Noobvestor
Mon Feb 05, 2018 2:37 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: I've never rebalanced - Can I do ok without it?
Replies: 35
Views: 4227

Re: I've never rebalanced - Can I do ok without it?

Gnirk wrote:
Sun Feb 04, 2018 11:54 pm
Not planning to rebalance, (over 90% of my portfolio is in taxable) but then I didn't have a high percentage to equities to begin with.
I'm mostly taxable too, so I rebalance a bit in tax-advantaged, but also use dividends - it's worked out well so far.
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 03, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now
Replies: 28
Views: 2837

Re: What Would You Do With $100,000 Right Now

If you have an IPS that specifies your glide path should change based on total portfolio value, and this trips one of the thresholds, follow the rules you wrote down for yourself. If your glide path is age-based, put this in your portfolio as you would any other amount of money. Either way, take thi...
by Noobvestor
Sat Feb 03, 2018 1:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds
Replies: 87
Views: 7993

Re: Alan Greenspan says there are bubbles in both stocks and bonds

Nis covered things well, but a few more thoughts: I wonder if the Fed really controls long term interest rates. Even if they did (they don't), why would you care if you were holding a normal (short or intermediate duration) bond fund like most investors? I wonder what would happen if we had a spike ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 02, 2018 5:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Finally going to invest, brother is FA
Replies: 89
Views: 6608

Re: Finally going to invest, brother is FA

Agree with the above - if you want more detailed feedback, provide us with his proposed portfolio. That said, I feel bad for you and for your brother. You're going to have to turn him down for your financial health, but also face a tough question: do you tell him that he is working for an unethical ...
by Noobvestor
Fri Feb 02, 2018 4:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. bonds in freefall
Replies: 33
Views: 5425

Re: U.S. bonds in freefall

Thanks, I'll go ahead and do it then. I am actually excited to see yields finally creeping up. Which is making it harder for me to pull the trigger on EE Bonds this year. If I had bought EE bonds about a year ago like some here were recommending, I'd be nervous at this point. That 3.53% yield for a...