Search found 4507 matches

by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 43
Views: 4357

Re: Am I being greedy?

My plan is to get to $2M and then re-evaluate Stick To Your Plan. If your risk tolerance is 100% equities through bull and bear markets, Go For It. Let Us Know When You Reach Your Milestone. :thumbsup :thumbsup Of course, it's always possible that by failing to diversify, this target amount will ne...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 23, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return
Replies: 43
Views: 3187

Re: A 4-5% rebalance to bonds barely budges risk/return

I rebalanced today - just 62/38 back to 60/40. It's not called for in my IPS, but permitted. As I see it, that's 2% of my portfolio that is now on the 'safe' side of things. Feels good looking at the dollar value - 'whew, I don't have to worry about that money' - even though it's just a small percent.
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 40
Views: 1796

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

The is no magical reason why small and value companies should outperform. There were casual reasons. Just because there were casual reasons in the past does not mean that these casual reasons will hold tommorow. No magical reason, that's true. But either you believe small and value companies are ri...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 11:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 43
Views: 4357

Re: Am I being greedy?

I used to kayak with an olympic level kayaker. One time, when we were scouting a class 5 rapid, I asked him if he thought I might die if I tried running it. His reply was "If you think you might die, you probably will." Wise advice. If you think you might be greedy, you probably are. (btw, I just n...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Am I being greedy?
Replies: 43
Views: 4357

Re: Am I being greedy?

Fellow veteran noob here checking in. It's not an all-or-nothing proposition. You can establish a glide path that takes both age and distance to goal into account. For example, you might go to 20% bonds now, and 30% when you hit $X, then 40% when you hit $Y, etc... As for physical assets: I don't th...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"
Replies: 24
Views: 1814

Re: Vanguard chief says "You will never see a bitcoin fund from us"

whodidntante wrote:
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:37 pm
Bogle initially rejected ETFs. Now Vanguard is playing catch up to Blackrock.
Hmmm. I thought they were ahead of the game by patenting the use of ETFs as a share class of mutual funds.
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?
Replies: 40
Views: 1796

Re: Small Value Premium - How Do You View It?

- Negative: It's just random luck or an anomaly that it outperformed in the past. Large cap companies are more proven and deserve their heavier market weight status in Total Stock Market Index Fund. I tilt small/value but think this is a mis-characterization of total-market approaches. They don't '...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 22, 2018 12:14 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: current asset vs paycheck asset allocation
Replies: 3
Views: 279

Re: current asset vs paycheck asset allocation

If your 401k automatically rebalances (mine does) it doesn't matter too much, and mirroring is probably fine. If it doesn't for some reason, you can use new contributions to rebalance each pay period, or periodically, by switching back and forth between funds.
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 21, 2018 11:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?
Replies: 36
Views: 2597

Re: Automated Tax Loss Harvesting by Robo Advisor - Anyone with real results?

The thing I always wonder is: what happens when you eventually leave the robo-advisor? Like if you transfer it all to Vanguard, will all the lot info be transferred into VG's systems, or will you have to keep track yourself? If the latter, not worth dealing with the headaches I would think of all th...
by Noobvestor
Wed Jan 17, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70
Replies: 24
Views: 2093

Re: Emerging Markets equities went sideways for 50 years 1920-70

columbia wrote:
Wed Jan 17, 2018 11:57 am
I wonder how folks will feel about owning a dedicated EM fund, if China eventually moves to a DMs status.
I'll be annoyed by the cap gains, but overall happy to have my EM fund be even more split up among smaller developing countries.
by Noobvestor
Fri Jan 12, 2018 2:29 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show
Replies: 285
Views: 32941

Re: Netflix, Your Current Favorite Show

A toss up between Dark (Stranger Things but with time travel and older kids) and Godless (western). Netflix has been doing a great job with content this past year. I liked Godless quite a bit. Dark is also really interesting. It's a German show overdubbed with English, so that was a little off putt...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 08, 2018 10:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: When the rubber hits the road [Progressive Dementia thread with merged updates]
Replies: 106
Views: 7931

Re: The reality hits - my dementia update

Sounds to me like you're doing all the right things, to the best of your ability. I can't imagine how frightening this all must be, at least in bad moments, but appreciate your updates and tenacity. I write this as someone who has someone close to me going through something similar. Sincere best wis...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can only invest in Taxable and Roth IRA - most tax efficient place to hold bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1251

Re: Can only invest in Taxable and Roth IRA - most tax efficient place to hold bonds?

I am 31 - will fall into the 22% tax bracket for 2018. I currently have bond funds in my taxable (AGDAX, JDBAX, LFRAX, LALDX, NFRAX, PRSNX) but want to sell them and buy vanguard bond funds to make them more tax efficient long term. The simplest would be to sell them all and buy Vanguard Intermedia...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Can only invest in Taxable and Roth IRA - most tax efficient place to hold bonds?
Replies: 21
Views: 1251

Re: Can only invest in Taxable and Roth IRA - most tax efficient place to hold bonds?

I am probably going against the grain on this one, but: I would hold stocks in Roth, tax-exempt (and/or I/EE) bonds in taxable. Based on the way yields are these days, tax-exempt does pretty well. On top of that, if you change your mind later, or find you have other kinds of space available or whate...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: A lot in taxable, or a little in Roth: a no-brainer?
Replies: 19
Views: 1250

Re: A lot in taxable, or a little in Roth: a no-brainer?

Impossible to say for absolute certain. For instance: what if I had a lot of money in (traditional) 401ks/IRAs (which will eventually be taxed)? Then that Roth space becomes more valuable, relatively, for timing taxes. But if I had to pick blind to other variables, I'd take the $100K in taxable. You...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Long Term Bonds as Alternative Asset Class (Not Fixed Income)
Replies: 11
Views: 925

Re: Long Term Bonds as Alternative Asset Class (Not Fixed Income)

Would anyone hold either Vanguard Long Term Treasury (VUST) or Long Term Bond (VBLTX) to play that role in their portfolio? Which would you choose and why? Has anyone used this approach successfully? I don't buy the alternative asset class argument either, but I will say if I had to choose between ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Seeking advice on exchanging Vanguard TD Fund 2030 to TD 2035
Replies: 2
Views: 177

Re: Seeking advice on exchanging Vanguard TD Fund 2030 to TD 2035

If the exchange is happening within a Roth, there are no tax implications. Would suggest changing to reach your target allocation across accounts, and not trying to time the market.
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Help go from cash to 50/50 AA
Replies: 16
Views: 1334

Re: Help go from cash to 50/50 AA

Any day you're not buying you're selling. A choice to delay or slow getting back in is just a way of saying 'my risk tolerance isn't up for this.' Instead of trying to figure out the market's next move or slowly get back in, consider ramping up your bond/cash allocation.
by Noobvestor
Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:04 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Asset Class combination analysis
Replies: 4
Views: 308

Re: Asset Class combination analysis

I'm stumped - why aren't you doing total-portfolio backtests? Don't you want to choose based on how this subset will function in combination with your other holdings? Can't see the reason for this exercise otherwise.
by Noobvestor
Sat Jan 06, 2018 12:20 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: 401k underperformance
Replies: 3
Views: 525

Re: 401k underperformance

Impossible to provide a meaningful response without the fund names/tickers and their benchmarks. But sure, in the abstract sense, yes, absolutely, underperforming by that amount is pretty dismal. Could be the funds, expenses, or benchmarks. Do they offer anything low-cost and indexed? If not, consid...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Talks Bubbles - 1/3/18
Replies: 16
Views: 1694

Re: Jeremy Grantham (GMO) Memo 1/3/08

So even the permabear is bullish. I can't decide what kind of indicator this is. :oops:
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 04, 2018 10:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Higher net worth / lower cash flow - How to Invest
Replies: 23
Views: 2221

Re: Higher net worth / lower cash flow - How to Invest

Cash - $450k Our cash flow from my income alone is slightly negative due to our families large decrease in take home pay. I feel/know I have too much cash on the sidelines, but with the current cash flow situaion, I'm leery to invest more. I think some obvious answer might be to invest the cash usi...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sub-Asset Class Rebalancing Dilemma -- Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 2
Views: 164

Re: Sub-Asset Class Rebalancing Dilemma -- Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged

You should have a tolerance band; at 63/37, it isn't necessary to rebalance to get back to 60/40. Agreed. A sort of de facto third option is just to wait until my 5% band is tripped at 65/35. Partly, too, I'm trying to get ahead of it, and flesh out my own IPS a bit more because this is a somewhat ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Sub-Asset Class Rebalancing Dilemma -- Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged
Replies: 2
Views: 164

Sub-Asset Class Rebalancing Dilemma -- Taxable vs. Tax-Advantaged

So the big-picture question (specifics below) is: how much should I (or: do you) worry about sub asset classes vs cap gain taxes? Target: 60/40 stocks/bonds. Stocks: 50/50 US/international, 50/50 large/small value within US, 50/50 total/emerging within international. Right now, the actual portfolio ...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:36 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brand New Investor; Thoughts on 401k allocations.
Replies: 7
Views: 592

Re: Brand New Investor; Thoughts on 401k allocations.

Seems fine, though heavy on US vs intl - 50/50 is simple and around market weights, and the US has done well recently, so beware recency bias. I also think 20-25% is a better starting point for bonds - as you said: diminishing returns. Regardless: if you're in a low bracket, consider prioritizing a...
by Noobvestor
Tue Jan 02, 2018 2:32 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond questions: Tax-Exempt vs. Total Bond, placing in taxable vs. Roth
Replies: 8
Views: 950

Re: Bond questions: Tax-Exempt vs. Total Bond, placing in taxable vs. Roth

You may find these helpful: https://personal.vanguard.com/us/FundsTaxEquivForYield https://personal.vanguard.com/us/funds/tools/taxequivalentyield?FundId=&Sc2=0&Sc=0&FundId1=0075&FundId2=&FederalTaxBracket=0#form I use a combination of TIPS (in trad IRA) and munis, EE and I Bonds (in taxable). I avo...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Contribution Counted for 2018
Replies: 8
Views: 520

Re: Roth Contribution Counted for 2018

I just had this happen in my 401(k) - I assume maybe I'll be able to contact the company that manage's my employer's plan, but it's kind of frustrating since last year the last paycheck of the year (end of December) did count as 2016 - figured this one would go to 2017. It doesn't matter what the c...
by Noobvestor
Mon Jan 01, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Roth Contribution Counted for 2018
Replies: 8
Views: 520

Re: Roth Contribution Counted for 2018

I just had this happen in my 401(k) - I assume maybe I'll be able to contact the company that manage's my employer's plan, but it's kind of frustrating since last year the last paycheck of the year (end of December) did count as 2016 - figured this one would go to 2017.
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 31, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Brand New Investor; Thoughts on 401k allocations.
Replies: 7
Views: 592

Re: Brand New Investor; Thoughts on 401k allocations.

Seems fine, though heavy on US vs intl - 50/50 is simple and around market weights, and the US has done well recently, so beware recency bias. I also think 20-25% is a better starting point for bonds - as you said: diminishing returns. Regardless: if you're in a low bracket, consider prioritizing a ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 31, 2017 9:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Eval my IPS [Investment Policy Statement]
Replies: 31
Views: 1969

Re: Eval my IPS

Agree w/above comment re:percent-of-total and simplification within accounts.

Also: you might want to add something about rebalancing bands - I find it helpful to keep those written down:

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Rebalancing
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 31, 2017 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.
Replies: 39
Views: 6637

Re: Jack Bogle’s 5 bold investment predictions for 2018 and beyond.

While I've been a big U.S. equity proponent, ongoing research is making me really question this. The U.S. market is one of the priciest in the world, and from a historical perspective, it's more than likely that the international scene will significantly outperform the U.S. over the next decade or ...
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 31, 2017 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is magnitude of risk reduction via international equity diversification
Replies: 26
Views: 1375

Re: What is magnitude of risk reduction via international equity diversification

In a downturn, no stocks are safe - so that kind of safety you need to buy with bonds. But a single national market under-performing long-term? Odds of that are pretty high - that's what you're diversifying against. Vanguard whitepapers show a reduction in volatility anywhere between 20-60% internat...
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 24, 2017 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: how to "know" what asset allocation is right? (crypto windfall)
Replies: 39
Views: 4927

Re: how to "know" what asset allocation is right? (crypto windfall)

Split some into different banks to up FDIC insurance. Consider an ultra-safe portfolio with some modest growth like: 1/5 total stock, 1/5 total international, 1/5 treasuries, 1/5 tips, 1/5 tax-exempt. Maybe leave a few percent in cash.
by Noobvestor
Fri Dec 22, 2017 11:41 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]
Replies: 140
Views: 9244

Re: Pass Through Entities Questions Thread

This is simplified, but not hypothetical: what's the general impact for someone with combined employee, investment and pass-through income? * $80,000/year in ordinary wages * $20,000/year in LLC pass-through business income * $20,000/year in taxable dividends Are there any calculators live yet for ...
by Noobvestor
Thu Dec 21, 2017 2:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48945

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Can someone nutshell the LLC/pass-through issue/benefits for a hybrid situation?

Basically I'm wondering: if I have a regular wage, then LLC income on top of that, how will that LLC income be taxed? Assume: 24% bracket.
by Noobvestor
Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Underperformance Can Mean More Risk
Replies: 8
Views: 1124

Re: Larry Swedroe: Underperformance Can Mean More Risk

Just because the investing decisions being made are all mechanical/mathematical doesn't mean it's not active. That system is selecting certain securities for purchase in lieu of other ones being bought. And I think that can work, and I'm not opposed to your strategy. If you're a perfectly passive i...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 20, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48945

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

Any change for holders of national muni funds in high-tax states? I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the state deduction cap, but like say for instance you're going to go over the cap, and make significant money from Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt - might it be wise to switch to the Cali...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: [Pass-Thru Entities Questions Thread]
Replies: 140
Views: 9244

Re: Pass Through Entities Questions Thread

This is simplified, but not hypothetical: what's the general impact for someone with combined employee, investment and pass-through income? * $80,000/year in ordinary wages * $20,000/year in LLC pass-through business income * $20,000/year in taxable dividends Are there any calculators live yet for t...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 20, 2017 3:31 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Please Post Tax Bill Questions Here [was Tax Bill Omnibus Thread]
Replies: 878
Views: 48945

Re: Tax Bill Omnibus Thread

How does the 20% deduction for pass-through income interact with AMT? It seems like if you had to add the deduction back in, it would negate the benefit (then again, that seems to be the point of AMT). I haven't been able to find a comprehensive explanation of the pass-through deduction, just some ...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 20, 2017 2:03 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH

peterinjapan wrote:
Sun Dec 17, 2017 12:39 pm
Am I really reading a dozen or so new threads about Bitcoin on BH?
The bubble is powerful. I'm watching with morbid fascination.
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:16 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH
Replies: 24
Views: 2245

Re: How invest Bitcoin Gold/Cash using ACH

Serious question: if you didn't think it was a good deal at $32, or $600, or $6000, what makes you think Bitcoin is a good deal now?

* Note: I haven't checked the price in a few days, so for all I know it's back down from $18,000 to $800.
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:58 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 3021

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

https://s8.postimg.org/50gexogw5/35by0pz.jpg.png Always entertaining to see that kind of coincidence in a binary comparison, but let's break things out by country and see what happens: I invest internationally because local stock markets can have wildly different returns even over long periods of t...
by Noobvestor
Wed Dec 13, 2017 2:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best High Risk/Growth Options for Taxable Account
Replies: 3
Views: 656

Re: Best High Risk/Growth Options for Taxable Account

No need to separate things into buckets. Just fill in the portfolio in a tax-efficient way - probably using Total Stock or Total International. Individual stocks give you more risk, but not more expected return.
by Noobvestor
Tue Dec 12, 2017 12:07 am
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 3021

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

Everyone will differ, but I think that's still on the 'light' end of the international spectrum (market weight would be 50/50 US/international). I'm 50/50 US/international, 50/50 developed emerging on the stock side, 100% US on the bond side. Vanguard's Target Date funds are 60/40 IIRC. And yup: mak...
by Noobvestor
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement
Replies: 60
Views: 3021

Re: What's the case for including foreign developed & emerging markets with a 10-12 year outlook on retirement

Vanguard Total International is all you really need. I happen to also tilt toward emerging, using their emerging markets index. I don't worry about currency risk (it cuts both ways, plus all my bonds are USD).
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 3461

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Asset allocations and forward returns
Image

Look at that lonely and sad 60/40 without ex-US equities - a good reminder to diversify internationally!
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin
Replies: 64
Views: 4207

Re: Buying index funds is just as speculative as buying Bitcoin

livesoft wrote:
Sun Dec 10, 2017 3:12 pm
This thread is probably confirmation of something.
Too true. I also wonder who op is trying to convince: us or themselves?
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision
Replies: 41
Views: 2903

Re: If you use EE Bonds, what did drive your decision

A few considerations for me personally: 1) I have a lot of money in taxable accounts, so I like the tax deferral 2) I have series I bonds and like the balance of having some nominal bonds 3) I will likely end up in a high-tax state (MN or CA) so the state tax exemption is a bonus 4) Doubling rate is...
by Noobvestor
Tue Dec 05, 2017 10:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International Stock/Bond Percentage
Replies: 4
Views: 760

Re: International Stock/Bond Percentage

I'm 50% international stocks, 0% international bonds. Why? The global stock market is around 50/50, so that's a good baseline, and I believe in geographical, economic, political and currency diversification. That said, on the bond side, currencies will dominate returns, and yields are very low outsi...
by Noobvestor
Sun Dec 03, 2017 5:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.
Replies: 34
Views: 5752

Re: Craig Rowland not blogging anymore on Permanent Portfolio.

I'm actually kind of a fan of the PP, though you probably couldn't tell from my last post about recent returns. But I do wonder if it has fallen somewhat more out of view in recent years (and/or if Craig stopped working on his site) due to recent performance. I also wonder if maybe the weights of th...