Search found 127 matches

by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

Re: Why is gold not a bubble - yet

I don't have a newspaper clipping handy. Well, as they say around Wikipedia, "citation needed." I've taken the trouble to do a quick check, you can take the trouble to dig out where ever it was that you heard that "people were lining outside banks to buy gold." The checks you di...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Well, folks, it has been a really spirited discussion about gold. The heartening thing for me is the knowledge that the investing public at large, whether they are less informed or more knowledgeable (like on this forum) have almost nothing invested in gold. PS: I'll be back when the Dow/gold ratio ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

nisiprius wrote:January 1, 1975:


Again, 1975 is like about 3 years into the gold bull-market. Just 3 years after the Nifty Fifty had collapsed. It will be like saying very few people wanted to buy gold in 2004. Well, duh!
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

You can stop talking about gold now. No more new threads please. You proven three times over that you don't know what you don't know.. No more threads about gold, please. If you want to contribute to some of the other discussions, please feel free to do so. If you are not interested, you can stop r...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

But your focus on this asset class is obsessive given the nature of its actual long term historical performance. Just having a discussion here does not equate to obsession on gold. If it was really an obsession, I would be a gold bug who has no investments other than gold - for all time. I have set...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

rrosenkoetter wrote:
fgfan wrote:The inevitable result...


Anytime someone says "inevitable" when talking about investments, I immediately know he's a fool.


And whenever I see someone imply that a country can print as much money as it wants without creating inflation, I immediately know he's a fool.
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Investing requires the ability to create wealth. Gambling does not. You're gambling. The only problem with your argument is that gold IS wealth, and to a greater extent than paper bills with numbers written on them. I am not gambling. I am just diversifying my cash holdings. And when stocks become ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

Do you? Can you point to a newspaper story about it? All I've been able to find so far is one that suggests that they thought about selling gold and decided not to: http://i56.tinypic.com/fdsxeh.jpg I don't have a newspaper clipping handy. Btw, the story that you cite was when gold was under $200. ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

Re: Why is gold not a bubble - yet

The last time gold was in a bubble in 1979-1980 both of the above were also the case but it really was a bubble then. So there's no reason to assume that it's not a bubble now. Wrong. One, when gold was in a bubble in the 1970's, people were lining outside banks to buy gold. You don't buy gold at a...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

It is not gold that is selling higher. It is fiat currencies that are losing their value. Do you seriously believe that it takes three times as many dollars to buy a car today as it did in 2006? No, it could also mean that gold is signaling future inflation. Then what you said is not correct. Gold ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The myth of safety in globally diversified portfolios
Replies: 24
Views: 3575

The myth of safety in globally diversified portfolios

Over the years as the US stock market began a secular bear, S&P/TSM buy and holders found refuge in claiming that what they were advocating was actually a "globally diversified portfolio". Well, as the world's markets become more and more integrated, that started falling apart as well....
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Do you really want me to mathematically prove to you that gold is a bad investment? You are relying on people to continue paying more and more for it. This cannot sustain itself for obvious reasons, gold does not create wealth. The best you can hope for in the long run is to grow with inflation. Pa...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

Cut-Throat wrote:It's in a Bubble, it just hasn't popped yet.


Yeah, if you could also say that Nasdaq was in a bubble when it was at 1000...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

Re: Why is gold not a bubble - yet

The last time gold was in a bubble in 1979-1980 both of the above were also the case but it really was a bubble then. So there's no reason to assume that it's not a bubble now. Wrong. One, when gold was in a bubble in the 1970's, people were lining outside banks to buy gold. And two, the media was ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

nisiprius wrote:
fgfan wrote:It is not gold that is selling higher. It is fiat currencies that are losing their value.
Do you seriously believe that it takes three times as many dollars to buy a car today as it did in 2006?


No, it could also mean that gold is signaling future inflation.
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Yes, it gets you nothing. Gold is not special, it has very few uses other than looking pretty. Tulips anyone? If you're lucky enough to find an idiot that will pay more for it than you bought it for, awesome. Good luck with that. I'm not going to be that idiot. Well, if gold gets you nothing, then ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

[ I am not saying that every major currency will fail. They will only devalue themselves further. And all investors don't need to flee to gold and all won't be able to either. But substantial numbers of investors will do so. It doesn't matter. You are making a prediction about the future. That is u...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

yxnstat wrote:to fgfan:

How certain are you of all this?

The amount of leverage you have on gold should indicate your level of certainty.


I have no leverage on gold. I have 18% in gold and 12% in gold stocks. I also have some 15% or so in general stocks and funds.
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

JDInvestor wrote:Serious question, fgfan: Why do gold mines sell the gold they remove from the earth instead of just putting it in the bank?


If they just hoarded it all, how do they pay their employees? Their vendors? Their creditors? Their shareholders?
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Bringing this from another thread: m Excerpt [ emphasis mine]: "It is important to recognize that the S&P 500 is presently only about 13% below its April peak, and the word "only" deserves emphasis. Our valuation impressions align fairly well with those of Jeremy Grantham at GMO, ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is gold not a bubble - yet
Replies: 138
Views: 13604

I won't pretend to know anything about gold. I don't know why it goes up or down or why it is selling at a such ridiculously high price. It is not gold that is selling higher. It is fiat currencies that are losing their value. What I do know is that the higher the gold goes, the sleazier the commer...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

[ Also, you're making a huge prediction by saying every major currency will fail and investors will all flee to gold. You might be right. You're probably wrong. I am not saying that every major currency will fail. They will only devalue themselves further. And all investors don't need to flee to go...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

JDInvestor wrote:
fgfan wrote:I really don't know what you're hoping to elicit based on your postings this weekend.


Oh, it was just a check on investor sentiment towards gold. I knew most investors were not in gold, and this forum gave me part of the confirmation that I needed.
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Is it really so hard a concept to understand that gold does not create wealth, and such is a terrible investment? After 30 years of owning gold, you're not going to have more gold. It gets you nothing. This guy is silly. Go back 40 years again, one ounce of gold would get you 15-20 barrels of black...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

well. after about 100 posts on this thread and dozens on others, I am convinced that the gold bull market is still intact. I belong to a private investors' forum and I find very high levels of skepticism about gold on that forum as well. But on this one, with its so many smartasses, I received mostl...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Is it really so hard a concept to understand that gold does not create wealth, and such is a terrible investment? After 30 years of owning gold, you're not going to have more gold. It gets you nothing. This guy is silly. Go back 40 years again, one ounce of gold would get you 15-20 barrels of black...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

Aside from the ratio, what is your fundamental thesis for owning gold? Hush, don't ask the man awkward questions like that! Just imagine that the past 40 years are going to mirror themselves in the next 40! Inb4circular argument.[/quote] I answered that question. I didn't say (and don't care if) th...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

Yes, that's right. Even when dividends are reinvested. Since 1971, S&P has gone up about 4700% while gold has gone up 4900% The next 10 years or so should see gold widen its lead further. However, during the following 10 years, the S&P should be able to catch up again. Aside from the ratio,...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hussman's outlook - report dated Aug 15, 2011
Replies: 12
Views: 2213

Hussman's outlook - report dated Aug 15, 2011

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110815.htm Excerpt [ emphasis mine]: "It is important to recognize that the S&P 500 is presently only about 13% below its April peak, and the word "only" deserves emphasis. Our valuation impressions align fairly well with those of Jeremy Grantham at...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3379

Just eyeballing an S&P price to earnings chart, currently it doesnt appear frothy. Waiting for a PE of 6 might be like waiting, as they are still doing since 1957, for dividends to rise above 4%. I'll be dead in 54 years. Probably LONG dead. Yes, that's why while you wait for it with a part of ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap Weighting of Gold Relative to Equities
Replies: 55
Views: 5857

Annual production looks pretty stable in this chart: m Another thing to note is that the increased production is largely the result of higher prices as previously uneconomical mines become economical. If anybody tries to sell gold at lower prices, some companies will go out of business, lowering th...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap Weighting of Gold Relative to Equities
Replies: 55
Views: 5857

Annual production looks pretty stable in this chart: http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/world.gif m Thanks. However, all it does is to show that just because the price of gold increased 6X or 7X, it is not a simple matter to increase the production. Gold is not dollar bills, nor is it like shares. Both ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Re: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...

The third and last sentence, contemplating with certainty what might happen in the next 20 years, only adds questions about the credibility or purpose of the post. It is not as scandalous as you make it out to be! All I was saying was that secular bulls and bears last about 15-20 years and that the...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

Recession: We Are Hitting an Economic Growth Ceiling Caused by Limited Cheap Oil m This makes sense to me. The current pattern is when the economy shows signs of expansion, there is an immediate drag put in place by rising commodity prices. Are these demand based responses or speculation based on c...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3379

So does an investor stay out of equities until P/Es hit 5-6? It depends on the investor. You could have some dry powder left so you are able to buy it at that level when it gets there. If you are the maverick type, you can entirely be in cash too. Or have a big chunk in gold, since a top in gold is...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

Even at 4.9% I don't see any better investment vehicles out there. For the portion of my portfolio that is not in gold, I see better options in dividend-paying stocks. The holdings of the Dividend Aristocrats etf, SDY is a good starting point. Combine that with the overvalued and undervalued extrem...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 4:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

It seems to me that when Hussmans forecast is greater than 9-10 percent I would be more inclined to take greater risk such as increase lifecycle fund to a longer term or bump a lifeStrategy from conservative to moderate. Any feelings on this logic? Yes, Hussman himself says that it is a good strate...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

How I wish that you short gold here. It would be wonderful to have a good old-fashioned short squeeze to feed the bull, though he will do just fine even without it! I believe the saying goes: 'Bulls make money, bears make money and pigs get slaughtered'. Yes, they get slaughtered, especially if the...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

hsv_climber wrote:I am pretty sure that the appropriate ratio between stocks and gold is 6.28318530717959.


So you sold stocks and bought gold when the ratio was 44 or 34 or 24 or anytime in between?
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

I'll be ready next time we go off the gold standard. No wonder you completely missed the gold bull-market of 2001-20XX And I wonder who here is going to miss the gold bear market of 2012-30xx... How I wish that you short gold here. It would be wonderful to have a good old-fashioned short squeeze to...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tracking the DOw/gold ratio
Replies: 32
Views: 2775

Tracking the DOw/gold ratio

[url] m[/url] Keep track of the above. Note that at the depth of the 2008-09 bear, the ratio was 7.0 and then it went up subsequently to as high as 10.0 before sinking to below 6.0 just a few days back. We have barely begun on the next bear market and we are already at 6.0 I expect the next stock be...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

I would also ask if the S@P P/E ratio went to 30-40/1 like in 1999. Would anyone be inclined to become more conservative. Asset allocators, or rebalancers, call them whatever they want to be called - always seem to think that their little reblancing acts will take adequate care of big overvaluation...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

TheEternalVortex wrote:I'll be ready next time we go off the gold standard.


No wonder you completely missed the gold bull-market of 2001-20XX :-)
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3379

SVariance1 wrote:Where do you data for historical forward earnings?


I remember seeing a chart of it on John Hussman's site (hussmanfunds.com).
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

And of course we never had any articles talking about how tech stocks or real estate were in a bubble before they burst, right? No, there were many articles and even websites like itulip.com. Not to mention housing bubble blog sites during that bubble. Your argument assumes that an asset class cann...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reason to be bullish
Replies: 36
Views: 3379

But isn't that already priced in. EVERYONE knows that a recession now, on top of $1.6T annual deficits and 9+% unemployment will be uncharted territory. Maybe that's why the market ONLY trades NOW at 12x next year's earnings. ????? No, 12x is not "ONLY". 12x is high. Why? Because forward ...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 3:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

It seems to me the more appropriate fun to compare VBINX wold be the Hussman Total Return (HSTRX). The Hussman Strategic Growth would be more appropriately measured against the S&P 500. Yes or No? Yes, you are correct. If I remember, his annual reports make the comparison you indicate i.e. HSGF...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next 10
Replies: 29
Views: 3712

Re: John Hussman predicts bleak returns for S&P 500 next

http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc110808.htm "...the S&P 500 ended Friday priced, by our estimates, to achieve an average annual 10-year total return of about 4.9%" It's not clear what you are saying. Because I see BOTH "average annual" and "total return". Are you say...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 2:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Market Cap Weighting of Gold Relative to Equities
Replies: 55
Views: 5857

Re: Market Cap Weighting of Gold Relative to Equities

Except some miners will charge less for their gold and make even higher profits by increasing market share. Except that mining gold is not like churning out widgets. And the annual gold output from mines is a tiny fraction of all the gold that is already out there. And gold production volumes are f...
by fgfan
Sun Aug 14, 2011 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Gold outperforms S&P 500 over 40 years...
Replies: 67
Views: 6397

Gold = Tulips m Thanks for the article. It clearly shows mainstream media is very skeptical about gold, if not outright bearish. That is not how bubbles end. Were you around at all in 2007 and 2008? Because the housing bubble was widely discussed and worried about in the MSM before things went supe...