Search found 2109 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 22, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Article by Paul Merriman
Replies: 5
Views: 449

Article by Paul Merriman

An article by Paul Merman who appears to have not only great depth of knowledge and extensive experience about markets but also something that is perhaps more even rare, wisdom. I think it sums things up quite well for investors. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-2019-what-could-go-wron...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 21, 2019 5:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5953

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Vineviz wrote: Growth and value are not "opposite" approaches in any real sense of the word. This is a matter of semantics. The point I was making is that the Vanguard Value Index did not significantly outperform the Vanguard Growth Index over a 26+ time span. That is a valid point which calls into ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5953

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

As a follow up to my last post, the same lack of efficacy for harvesting the value premium shows up in Vanguard's small cap funds. Since inception, 5/21/1998, more than 20 years ago through 12/31/2018, their Small Cap Growth Fund has outperformed their Small Cap Value Fund by O.2% annually (8.01% gr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 21, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years
Replies: 73
Views: 5953

Re: The Value "Premium" has been ZERO for 30 years

Academically derived factor premiums are long/short cost free portfolios without trading frictions or the increased trading costs and the extra cost involved in paying fat salaries to those who create and market factor funds, and of course without the cost of shorting. Trading frictions, increased c...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 19, 2019 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alan Roth: 5 Investing Lessons
Replies: 28
Views: 2677

Re: Alan Roth: 5 Investing Lessons

Excellent article by Alan Roth.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 77
Views: 7233

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I think the more interesting point in the interview is not the 5% gold question--what's the big deal about 5% of a fixed portfolio that you can't change for decades as black swan insurance?--but instead Bogle's take on bonds. He suggests that TBM has too many US government bonds relative to corporat...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 18, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My trend following strategy and experience
Replies: 157
Views: 5718

Re: My trend following strategy and experience

No one knows the future but I suspect that this trend following strategy will likely do what it is primarily intended to do, reduce downside losses in bear markets. I also suspect that long term it is likely to underperform a standard buy and hold balanced portfolio. Willthrill81 is willing to accep...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle
Replies: 44
Views: 5006

Re: The Worth Of A Man: A Tribute To John C. Bogle

Great article, Rick, thanks for posting. I particularly loved the following quote. He details the values we should emulate in our business and professional callings and provides thought-provoking life lessons regarding our individual roles in society. Jack examined what it truly means to have "enoug...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 17, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wrong about international bonds?
Replies: 26
Views: 2527

Re: Wrong about international bonds?

The US is in a FED credit tightening cycle. The rest of the world is still stuck in a central bank credit loosening cycle. This means US bonds yield more but suffer principal losses as rates have risen that more than offset their higher yields. This is precisely what happened last year, the reason w...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 16, 2019 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 1882

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

Jack's expected bond returns are higher than most because his bond portfolio employs some corporate bonds and longer duration bonds, both of which have higher yields but greater potential risk than Treasuries. By the way, The Great One passed away today. It is estimated that his creation of the inde...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts
Replies: 29
Views: 1882

Re: GMO's 7‐Year Asset Class Real Return Forecasts

Nisi nailed it. Best not to put too much faith in GMO or anyone else's estimates of future returns. Put simply the future is both unknown and unknowable. I believe the best approach for investors is to get a solid portfolio and pay little/no attention to forecasts and the financial media noise. Buff...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 16, 2019 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns
Replies: 6
Views: 515

Re: Forward P/E ratios and subsequent 10-year returns

Forward PE ratios are created by analysts employed by firms in the business of selling stocks. Historically forward earnings systematically overestimate what the real earnings turn out to be. That is helpful in selling stock, less so in accurately predicting the future. PE ratios can be further mani...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 15, 2019 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?
Replies: 63
Views: 4255

Re: How to avoid temptation to buy hot stocks or bitcoin?

A burnt hand is the best teacher about the dangers of fire. Once you lose substantial wealth in a get rich quick strategy your enthusiasm for such products in the future should disappear. If you don't learn from grievous mistakes, investing and for that matter life itself is likely to be a long and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"
Replies: 20
Views: 4371

Re: "Dirt Simple Wins Again. Couch Potato Portfolio"

willthrill81 wrote: Just buy and hold a three-fund, very low cost portfolio all your life, and you'll probably do better than most of the 'experts'. Investment books may help, but they are far from necessary these days. The need for investment prowess is largely gone today. Most of what we do in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 15, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs
Replies: 22
Views: 2909

Re: An Annuity Hater Revisits SPIAs

I think Mr. Roth's analysis of annuities is excellent. Biggest weakness of complex annuities is high cost and fees. Biggest weakness of SPIA is inflation for those with great longevity or early death for those with less than average longevity. Take home message seems to me that if you wish to buy an...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 14, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8420

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: I have a mid six figure Roth IRA I am about to move away from Vanguard because of this decision. If your investment style involves leveraged and inverse ETFs as trading vehicles, Vanguard is clearly not the place for you. There are plenty of financial companies that will be happy...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 12, 2019 9:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio
Replies: 118
Views: 33803

Re: Improving the Dalio/Robbins All-Seasons Portfolio

These portfolios all have a large allocation to long duration Treasuries/TIPS. Long duration bonds have done very well for the last 3 - 4 decades and therefore shine on backtesting. At the present time, however, they carry great duration risk which is far in excess of their modest current yield in m...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 12, 2019 2:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did you ever "win" big?
Replies: 133
Views: 9613

Re: Did you ever "win" big?

Yes, I did back in the tech boom running up to 2000. Back then I only bought individual stocks and only 2. In 1992 I bought $40K of CSCO and 20K of INTC. My entire portfolio was only those 2 stocks, no bonds. CSCO split so many times that my adjusted buy price got to $1.17/share and it went up to ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 11, 2019 5:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort
Replies: 6
Views: 784

Re: Larry Swedroe: Historical Data Can Comfort

Agree with Larry that no matter what your investing approach is, over the decades the market will frustrate you and test your nerve to stay with your chosen plan in adversity. The market has never been a smooth ride over any significant time span and it never will be IMO. In essence the market pays ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 10, 2019 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds
Replies: 33
Views: 1765

Re: Portfolio of Leveraged Exchange Traded Funds

It is a very simple exercise in mathematics over a given time frame to create a complex portfolio using leverage/alternates/options, etc., with higher bond allocations that outperforms a standard 60/40 portfolio and provides a higher Sharpe ratio. Data mining the past is easy but its conclusions are...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Past result is not an indicator for future performance
Replies: 29
Views: 2037

Re: Past result is not an indicator for future performance

Nothing is absolutely certain over for a given market or asset class over any given period of time. We can't be certain that a giant asteroid or a nuclear war won't wipe out human life over the next ten years. That doesn't mean that we can't make decisions based on our best judgement. The degree of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 09, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]
Replies: 145
Views: 8420

Re: [Vanguard to stop accepting purchases in Leveraged or Inverse mutual funds]

Taylor wrote: I read the Vanguard article and applaud their decision--to no longer sell leveraged and inverse mutual funds which are risky and unsuitable for most investors. 1+ I totally agree. Vanguard is owned by its shareholders and therefore has its shareholders best interests in mind. Most Van...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 07, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!
Replies: 61
Views: 5721

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium Lives!

I believe the outperformance by LCG relative to say SCV over the last 10 years or so is largely due to macroeconomic forces which many on this Forum seem to ignore. LCG is dominated by tech companies which have managed to sustain extraordinary levels of profit growth for years due to the increasing ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 06, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expense ratios and returns for stock and bond mutual funds
Replies: 6
Views: 736

Re: Expense ratios and returns for stock and bond mutual funds

Bellavsky wrote: An exception to the vast underperformance of high-fee mutual funds may be fixed-income mutual funds. While high-fee fixed-income funds still on average underperform their low-fee counterparts by 0.18 percentage point based on the 10-year horizon, a good number of these high-fee fun...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 05, 2019 12:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A cursory look at valuations
Replies: 19
Views: 1607

Re: A cursory look at valuations

Agree that valuations after the recent decline are not excessive in US or INTL. If we are able to avoid a recession in the near future, US stock returns are likely to be pretty good going forward. If we avoid a global recession INTL is also likely to provide good returns. Panic is never an appropria...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 9:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century
Replies: 92
Views: 4382

Re: US Stock Market Returns in the 21st Century

As others may have pointed out, in the 19 year period chosen, 17 of the 19 years were in the greatest bond bull market of all time. In addition, during that 19 year period the 2 greatest stock market declines since the Great Depression occurred. Not exactly an average time period for stocks and bond...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4224

Re: What do you think of this advice?

l1am wrote: A lot of professional traders make a living on TA, so I don't think that's entirely true. Trading is a zero sum game. For every trader who makes money, another loses money. The idea that trading profits are dominated by technical analysis is not IMO true. Essentially all traders are ful...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 52
Views: 4876

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

The LCG space is subject to bubble formation, especially true in the tech run up to 2000 when the Shiller PE 10 ratio reached an all time high of 44. More recently the FAANGs were where the big investment money flowed until recently when it suddenly reversed. LCG tech can produce remarkable growth f...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 04, 2019 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard To Liquidate Convertible Securities Fund
Replies: 24
Views: 1788

Re: Vanguard To Liquidate Convertible Securities Fund

Vanguard wrote: "Vanguard determined that investors could achieve similar risk-return exposures and long-term returns by investing in a diversified, balanced portfolio of global stock and bond funds." I agree with this thinking and I agree with Vangaurd's action to close the fund and suggest a balan...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 03, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What do you think of this advice?
Replies: 62
Views: 4224

Re: What do you think of this advice?

David Jay wrote: “Technical” market analysis is the modern day equivalent of the witch doctor examining chicken entrails to foretell the future. The guy who coined the term “technical analysis” for a pattern fitting exercise was a marketing genius. 1+ Well put. Technical analysis can accurately def...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs
Replies: 20
Views: 1347

Re: Invesco to close two micro cap ETFs

Bid/ask spreads and trading illiquidity can be a killer in the micro-cap space. The academic research on the size factor conveniently ignores these trading friction problems. Academic factor research also does long/short portfolios which is entirely counterproductive in the SC and micro-cap spaces. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?
Replies: 38
Views: 4362

Re: Is there a Nassim Taleb portfolio?

It's important to remember that preparing for a black swan with a high percentage of ST/IT Treasuries approaching 90% and a low 10% or so of high risk/high expected return assets is not a very productive portfolio if the black swan does not occur. This is especially true if high risk/high reward ass...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 02, 2019 11:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any reason for optimism?
Replies: 81
Views: 3067

Re: Any reason for optimism?

nisi wrote: I see plenty of reasons for optimism and for pessimism. I always do. 1+ Well put. Is the glass half full or half empty? We'll find out in time. Until then it's an unknown. We know only a few things about investing with a high level of certainty. Stocks are very likely to outperform bond...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jan 01, 2019 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The big Value Trap year of 2018
Replies: 35
Views: 3624

Re: The big Value Trap year of 2018

Actually it seems to me that the big winner of 2018 was something that most Bogleheads avoid, MMF. Vanguard's Prime MMF returned +1.95% for the year, better than any of Vanguard's US Bond Funds (except Ultra Short Bond which also returned 1.95%) and better than any of Vanguard's US or International ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 28, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]
Replies: 153
Views: 13609

Re: [Vanguard Founder Jack Bogle Says It’s Time to Play It Safe]

I have an asset allocation plan which I stick to in general but I do make small/modest changes occasionally according to market conditions and my life conditions. This does not mean panic selling which is against my religion. I share Mr. Bogle's current concerns about increased risks to the equity m...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 28, 2018 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not go all small cap value for equities?
Replies: 72
Views: 4426

Re: Why not go all small cap value for equities?

If you unequivocally accept factor research as being a consistent and reliable guide not only to the market's past but to its future, and you have a very long investing time horizon (at least 2 decades), and you are confident that you can tolerate SCV underperformance which may go on for 15 years or...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

Park wrote: "Comparing the returns of US stocks in 15 Bull and 14 Bear markets, a Ned Davis research study found that since 1972 S&P dividend payers had outperformed non-payers by 12.5% on an average basis in each bear market while outperforming by 3.4% in each bull market." Please note that declin...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

Regarding dividend growth versus high dividend stocks during a bear market Park wrote: I'd like to differentiate between cyclical and secular bear markets. Cash/fixed income is what I would use to mitigate the risk of a cyclical bear market. My original post was more focused on mitigating the risk ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there something weird in bond-land?
Replies: 14
Views: 1483

Re: Is there something weird in bond-land?

sunnywindy wrote: Charts that only show 5 years of data (less than one market cycle) can easily lead you to the wrong conclusion. Be very wary as the chart maker surely chose this time frame to intentionally not show you any other stock/bond divergences throughout history so that you do not questio...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 27, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return
Replies: 52
Views: 6399

Re: Is there any Low Risk 4 % Return

Is there any low risk 4% return? Depends on how low is "low risk?" If you mean risk-less, something that you never have to worry about no matter what happens, the answer is an unequivocal no except in highly inflationary times when you can get 30 year Treasuries yielding more than that nominally but...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 26, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Now is the time to REJOICE!
Replies: 102
Views: 11646

Re: Now is the time to REJOICE!

I don't rejoice when the market drops significantly, but neither do I despair or panic. I've lost a lot of money in this decline but I am confident that in time I'll get that money back and more by staying the course. I'm a veteran of a lot of bear markets, some of them like 2000-3 and 2007-9 quite ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 26, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?
Replies: 43
Views: 3087

Re: Dividend Stocks Mitigate Secular Bear Markets?

No class of stocks holds up well in bear markets. IMO the group that does best is not strictly high dividend payers but companies that have long histories of ever increasing dividend payments, dividend growth stocks. Dividend growth tends to be a good measure of the quality factor and these companie...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 25, 2018 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Utilities have fallen 10% while bonds are up. This makes no sense to me.
Replies: 11
Views: 2425

Re: Utilities have fallen 10% while bonds are up. This makes no sense to me.

There is no requirement that the market make sense to us. Even market experts are often befuddled by market action. Accurate explanations that make sense are usually derived after the fact, not before. If it always made sense, markets would be largely predictable in advance which clearly they are no...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 25, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will Total US Bond Index fund have a positive return for 2018?
Replies: 13
Views: 2058

Re: Will Total US Bond Index fund have a positive return for 2018?

Like most observers, I believe that most of the FED's rising rate action is behind us. For those of us who shortened average bond duration a year or so ago expecting rates to rise briskly, this may be a time to consider lengthening average bond duration back toward an intermediate bond duration. Lon...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 24, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equities % v. Total Assets at Risk
Replies: 29
Views: 2822

Re: Are you a true believer? - Equities v. Total Assets at Risk

When the market is tanking risk based posts appear on the Forum. When the market is doing quite well and has been doing well for a long time, 100% equity posts show up. Clearly the emotional yoyo up and down drives this. There are not one but two risks that investors need to consider. One is quite v...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 23, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Bogleheads Bucket?
Replies: 143
Views: 15463

Re: Do Bogleheads Bucket?

I plead guilty to a form of bucket strategy. I am retired without any income other than SS which is not adequate for my level of expenses. I keep at least 2 years of living expenses in MMF in my personal non-tax advantaged account. In circumstances like the current one, market correction/possible be...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 20, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the national debt affect your investing strategies?
Replies: 21
Views: 1298

Re: Does the national debt affect your investing strategies?

I agree it is a serious issue over the multi-decade long term which is likely to reduce GDP growth and market returns relative to past history when our levels of both governmental debt and household debt were lower. We ran massive deficits in WW2, but paid them down after the war and got them to ver...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 7:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan
Replies: 41
Views: 6111

Re: Bull market is over, run for cover says Alan Greenspan

I think it's quite normal to feel anxiety about the market at a time like this when we've had a long and great bull run but are now seeing gathering clouds on the horizon. As far as predictions of what's going to happen in the future, they're all over the place--recession/deep bear market, stagflati...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So...do I keep buying more equities?
Replies: 49
Views: 5759

Re: So...do I keep buying more equities?

randomguy wrote: The problem with value investing is always figuring out if the product is on sale or if they are distressed merchandise. Buying now before the 20% dip is a poor idea. Buying now before the 20% rebound is a great one. The question posed was: So...do I keep buying more equities? "Kee...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 19, 2018 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A case against buy and hold index investing
Replies: 39
Views: 4460

Re: A case against buy and hold index investing

Basically his ideas for stock picking aren't new. His five strategies include dividend investing, value investing (low P/B), and quality investing. The fourth thing he suggests is "know the company you buy very well" which is the essence of a Warren Buffett strategy. The problem is that very few inv...