Search found 1974 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 27
Views: 1123

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

privatefarmer wrote: It seems like they keep "fine tuning" it/throwing in new factors ie profitability/liquidity etc etc, doesn't seem as passive as I once thought... would love some input from anyone w/ more insight... It seems to me that you've got plenty of insight yourself, private farmer. Fact...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set it and forget it
Replies: 17
Views: 2666

Re: Set it and forget it

Great comments and great advice for long term investors, Rick, thanks for posting. Many of us agonize over getting the perfect portfolio and constantly tweak it as new data shows the old version is not quite perfect. Simplicity is better sought than avoided IMO. Selecting a widely diversified portfo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 41
Views: 3145

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

The following is the web source for the Vanguard Research Paper on how various asset classes hedge for inflation, both expected inflation and unexpected inflation based on historical research from 1970 through 2010. This article is definitely worth reading for those seeking inflation protection. htt...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?
Replies: 5
Views: 489

Re: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?

Personally, I wouldn't worry much about modestly overweighting something that Warren Buffett finds to be an attractive investment. I view the addition of BRKB to TSM as a positive.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 891

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

Vanguard offers some active funds that have truly remarkable records of long term excellence--Primecap, Wellesley, Wellington among them. These funds appear to be consistently run by skillful managers who keep costs low which are the secrets to success in active management. Also, when a successful f...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2607

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

marcopolo wrote: This is why i like to try to understand basic concepts and seek simple solutions on which to base my investing decisions, rather than follow any "cult of personality", whether that be Malkiel, Shiller, Siegel, Swedroe, etc. or even Bogle. 1+ This is my approach as well. Garland Whi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 26
Views: 2607

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

Siegel is now with Wisdom Tree and Malkiel now is with Wealthfront. Both of these academics used to be enthused by market cap weighted portfolios but are now suggesting factor based approaches. One wonders if they have had an intellectual epiphany about the advantages of factor investing or whether ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 38
Views: 6996

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem. Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial col...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 1822

Re: StreetShares bonds

The bond market very efficiently prices risk. In the current environment when a bond issuer offers a 5% yield, you don't need to study it in detail. It is certain that increased risk is involved. Risk free 5% bonds would disappear so quickly you would never hear about them. Stretching for yield in t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 39
Views: 2765

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

willthrill81 wrote: I recall hearing about research which indicated that, on average, the single largest stock by market cap underperformed the rest of the market by something like 5%. Unfortunately, I cannot find it now. Meb Faber of Cambria Investments studied what happened to the largest stocks ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 193
Views: 58717

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

colombia wrote; For almost 50 years, Wellesley has performed like some mythical, low volatility blue chip stock. 1+ Wellesley has been a great fund for a long time with excellent risk adjusted returns relative to the market. It is a rare example of active management with a great long term track rec...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 193
Views: 58717

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

willthrill wrote: It's been estimated that over the entire bond bull market that declining rates boosted bond returns by only about 1%. Eliminating a 1% tailwind wouldn't change my view of Wellesley, but it might change others'. Whoever made that 1% estimate was wildly incorrect and inaccurate in r...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9477

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

marcopolo wrote: Most of the people i hear making the argument for staying invested seem to be saying you should do that because you can't predict when the crash is coming, so always be prepared, NOT making the argument that a crash can't happen because this time it is different. Very valid observa...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals
Replies: 15
Views: 1098

Re: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals

I do annual rebalancing/withdrawals, usually at year end or the early new year, liquidating sufficient equity at that time from IRA (RMD) plus TSM from personal account to provide sufficient cash into my personal MMF to cover all anticipated living expenses for the upcoming year. In addition I keep ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?
Replies: 16
Views: 1527

Re: Has the US bull become addicted to corporate buybacks?

boglerdude wrote: Do buybacks put a floor on the share price? With the company always there to buy at X price No. In order for buybacks to occur, corporations have to have excess cash on the balance sheet or be able to borrow it cheaply. Bear markets are generally associated with recessions, a time...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 15, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9477

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

I think this article by Larry is excellent. After a 9+ year bull market there's considerable investor complacency out there. You may not be prepared should some of the very real risks Larry mentions materialize into a deep bear market. If your asset allocation reflects their true risk tolerance, no ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?
Replies: 44
Views: 3763

Re: 30 yr TIPs auction: Oct. 18: 1.2% real yield?

Not yet. When it gets to 2%, I'll consider it seriously.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 14, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?
Replies: 71
Views: 5663

Re: Who worries about a bear market in stocks?

Culater wrote: For the life of me, I just don't get why somebody thinks it's a good idea to keep any more money in stocks than you are forced to based on need. Might be a good idea to figure out the difference between "need" and "want" and invest accordingly. It depends on how you define "need" and...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 13, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it? [WisdomTree Emerging Mkts SmallCap Dividend]
Replies: 25
Views: 1691

Re: DGS: Own it? Opinions on it?

Those who want a fund with exposure to the EM SC space have limited choices unless they have access to DFA which has a EM SCV fund. I am aware of 3 options: DGS, EWX, and EEMS, all of which have performed similarly. DGS, using a dividend strategy, in theory tends more toward value/low vol than the o...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 10, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert
Replies: 80
Views: 5219

Re: The benefits of international diversification - NOT: Hulbert

nisi wrote: At this point, I'm almost completely convinced that people are starting to see imaginary patterns in pure noise in correlations. I suspect most of the claimed phenomena are just sampling error. 1+ This is IMO sage insight. Markets in general produce a massive amount of random noise and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 188
Views: 9465

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

vineviz wrote regarding Alan Roth's post: My point was that you're drawing meaningless distinction between principal and income. It's an unsophisticated, and unhelpful, way to look at SPIAs. With all due respect, vineviz, it seems absurd to suggest that Alan Roth, a widely respected and seasoned ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities
Replies: 188
Views: 9465

Re: Allan Roth doesn't like single premium annuities

Fear and insecurity are common among the elderly, and they are the main tools exploited by those who sell and market annuities. On paper the numbers don't work for buyers but they work big time for the companies that issue them and those who reap commissions selling them. A rolling ladder of bonds o...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market
Replies: 40
Views: 3769

Re: A Roadmap For The Upcoming US Treasury Bull Market

I personally fail to see the attraction of long duration especially in the current fixed income environment. Long duration increases risk (rising rates, inflation) and you get paid almost nothing now to take on that risk. As for the upcoming US Treasury bull market, no one can accurately predict whe...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 09, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6322

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

gtwhitegold wrote: Lower correlations with US equities and greater expected returns are why I personally am overweight EM relative to IDM in my IPS. If this actually benefits me in the long run is yet to be seen. 1+ Me too. EM are so volatile that they're hard to hang on during their too frequent c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation and stocks and bonds
Replies: 14
Views: 741

Re: Inflation and stocks and bonds

When a self-reinforcing inflation cycle gets going and keeps increasing over time, no investment provides significantly positive real returns over time. Real assets do best but they barely keep up with increasing inflation. Bonds suffer more long term relative to stocks, but shorter term both take s...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 08, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated
Replies: 26
Views: 2717

Re: Investment grade bonds now made up of 50% BBB rated

TBM holds no BBB rated bonds and almost 2/3 of its bonds are backed by the US government. Its corporate bond exposure sticks with investment grade. TBM's default risk is well controlled IMO but it does have duration risk (ave. duration 6.1 yrs. which is why its YTD return is -2.52%). No reason for p...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 07, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Doubling down on EM [Emerging Market]
Replies: 55
Views: 5751

Re: Doubling down on EM

One of the biggest mistakes investors make is to assume what has happened in the recent past, still fresh in their memory, will persist into the future. When it comes to asset classes whether it be value, international, EM, long bonds, commodities, etc., markets go through cycles of up and down repe...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 05, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1979

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

nedsaid wrote: I guess if Garland gives up on Small Value, that ought to be a buy signal. There is no doubt that this is true. The nedsaid effect works in my case reliably. Things I buy immediately drop in value and things I sell immediately go up. AQR and RAFI should pay me to bail on SCV, but I'm...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 04, 2018 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1979

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

nedsaid wrote: I am not the only one noticing that value is continuing to have a tough time. Indeed, Value has been on an extended 10 year vacation, trailing the rest of the market. It's longer than 10 years, nedsaid. The following are portfolio performance statistics comparing portfolio results fr...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 04, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview
Replies: 22
Views: 1979

Re: Bloomberg - Cliff Asness Interview

Cliff Asness is honest in addition to being brilliant and an accomplished student of the market. it is quite refreshing to read his comments on the frustrations of quant strategies particularly this year when not only value is down and has been down for a long time but also the other factors (which ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7643

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

I wrote: Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle are the opposite of dull and slow witted. . . . vineviz replied: That's debatable, wouldn't you say? I don't believe it is debatable. Jack Bogle discovered and first described the elegance and effectiveness of simple index investing while still a student at Pr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle
Replies: 144
Views: 7643

Re: Key differences between investing philosophies: Swedroe vs. Bogle

vineviz wrote: If a complex strategy is riskier yet somehow fails to have a higher return then the fundamental underpinnings of our investment theories will have been falsified. I’m betting that is NOT the outcome. I believe that is the point: it is a bet, not a certainty. There are many reasons to...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 03, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses
Replies: 100
Views: 12073

Re: Larry Swedroe: Be Prepared For Losses

It's a good idea to be prepared for losses, no matter what your investing strategy is. There will inevitably be times when you underperform relative to other options and also times when all risk assets tank. At such times it is tempting to switch strategies, to sell the underperforming assets and bu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 02, 2018 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"
Replies: 15
Views: 1587

Re: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"

Vineviz wrote: The most appropriate benchmark for this class of fund is probably a U.S. 5 Year Treasury Note, and 75% of these funds beat that benchmark over the past five years. I respectfully disagree. I'm with Taylor on this one. The 5 yr. Treasury is ultra cheap to buy, and its safety, lack of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 01, 2018 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today
Replies: 469
Views: 68331

Re: 2-year CDs at Vanguard and Fidelity Today

I'm not interested in CDs for a number of reasons, lack of instant liquidity without penalty being one of them. What if rates go up as they are expected to do (about 1% over the next 12 - 15 months)? While short term bonds may not reflect that full 1% rise, money market funds being essentially zero ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?
Replies: 918
Views: 210370

Re: Should I use margin to buy a balanced fund?

WhiteMaxima wrote: don't use margin loan. basically it is kind of leveraged investment at a high interest. 1+ Taking out a loan and leveraging up to buy a volatile asset is a high risk strategy that may work if the market is kind to you or may be a complete disaster if it is not. If the market coll...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 9:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"
Replies: 18
Views: 2785

Re: Rekenthaler: "So much for the bond bubble"

nisi wrote: Currently, in Total Bond, an instant rise of 1.3% would cause a decline of 1.3%/year x -6.1 years = -8%. At a current SEC yield of 3%, that would mean less than three years to get back to even. Unpleasant, but nothing to stress about. I agree but the loss isn't just 8%. Compound inflati...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?
Replies: 129
Views: 14755

Re: Should we stay in Crazytown because there's no where to run?

Timing market tops in bulls and bottoms in bears is notoriously difficult. I am at present less optimistic about the market's future over the next year or two than I have been at any time during this current 9+ year bull market. I believe that sometime over the next year or two, a correction or bear...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 28, 2018 9:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tail Risk Protection
Replies: 28
Views: 2943

Re: Tail Risk Protection

Quotes from the article in Alpha Architect by Aaron Brask on strategies to achieve tail risk protection. TRH strategies are very complex and will often end up with polarized results. As highlighted in the disclaimer above, it is important to understand these strategies are speculative in nature. Acc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

grok 87 wrote: It’s a good point. The problem I have here is that the correlations are clearly not stable and arguably not knowable. Investing is not physics. 1+ Important point. If you torture backtesting data sufficiently you can indeed derive algorithms and models for expected returns/volatility...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia
Replies: 37
Views: 1620

Re: Research Affiliates: Alternative Risk Premia

This is an interesting and thoughtful paper. It makes a strong case for a long/short plus derivatives strategy using multiple alternate risk premia in order to both reduce volatility and increase returns in our current environment of low expected investment returns of a traditional 60/40 portfolio. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 26, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?
Replies: 75
Views: 5057

Re: S&P 500 Forward P/E ratio - Are stocks highly valued?

Forward PE is a marketing tool used primarily to increase stock sales. Forward PE estimates are produced by analysts whose corporate income stream is ultimately derived from equity sales. They typically see the glass as at least half full unless its dry. Backtesting of the accuracy of forward PE dem...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 25, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?
Replies: 33
Views: 1760

Re: Are Government Back Bonds or FDIC Insured accounts more at risk of Default?

Neither government backed bonds nor FDIC insured accounts have sufficient default risk IMO to worry over. There are many things in investing that are worthy of concern. This is not one of them.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 24, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets
Replies: 31
Views: 2319

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factors Persist In Emerging Markets

JimmyJammy wrote: Speaking of Value funds, I see that Vanguard International Value (VTRIX) has outperformed Vanguard Emerging (VEMAX/VWO), including on the maximum timeframe (going back to 1996). This is not a fair comparison. VTRIX contains about 13% EM and 87% DM, so it's an apples to oranges com...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 23, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2084

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

vineviz wrote:
I think you misunderstood me. I was not making an argument about future returns of bonds at all.

I was just illustrating that corporate bonds are less efficient portfolio diversifiers than sovereign bonds.
Totally agree with your conclusion.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 23, 2018 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Best corporate long-term bond fund
Replies: 26
Views: 2084

Re: Best corporate long-term bond fund

vinevix wrote: By way of example, imagine so-called "conservative" portfolio that is 30% Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund (VTSMX) and 70% Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund (VWESX). Over the past 25 years such a portfolio would have had an annualized standard deviation of monthly return...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 22, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk
Replies: 25
Views: 2162

Re: AQR podcast: stocks are not real assets and do not hedge against inflation risk

siamond wrote: So yeah, if one is fixated on the short-term, then one should seek vehicles with a more mechanical inflation adjustment. Personally, I don't see the point, I am happy enough relying on the fact that the noise ends up faltering, and that (stock) prices will auto-adjust (and more). PS....
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?
Replies: 67
Views: 5572

Re: For those who use a 2 year cash(like) buffer, how do you know when to use it?

The main purpose of cash buffer is to avoid selling equity into market weakness. This is particularly important if you're retired and have no significant source of reliable ongoing income. Market downturns can be sudden and severe and this is when cash in a non-tax sheltered account comes in handy. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard research paper; Rising Rates, Flatter Curve
Replies: 1
Views: 498

Vanguard research paper; Rising Rates, Flatter Curve

Recent research paper on yield curve inversion by Vanguard. Is it likely to happen? What it means and is it different this time around? Comments?

https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/ISGYIELD.pdf

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 21, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks continue to soar!
Replies: 321
Views: 33730

Re: U.S. stocks continue to soar!

nedsaid wrote: This is why we need the perspective of history. Interest rates and inflation don't always fall as investors found out during the 1970's. Don't think stagflation is coming back but just in case I am keeping my TIPS and REITs. Nedsaid's point of view reflects the accumulated wisdom fro...