Search found 1901 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 30
Views: 2222

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

I agree with Siamond that a 30/70 portfolio is extremely conservative for someone about 40 regardless of which equity assets you choose for the 30%. Of course if you're already very rich and don't need significant portfolio growth over decades, you can do anything you want and it will work. If you'r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 30
Views: 2222

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

vineviz wrote: The S&P 600 based funds (IJS, SLYV, VIOV) are unquestionably more focused on smaller stocks and deeper value stocks than VBR. So is PXSV, Invesco Russell 2000 Pure Value ETF, which is a deep exposure SCV fund, basically micro-cap deep value with much heavier loads to both value and s...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return
Replies: 21
Views: 1800

Re: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return

WanderingDoc wrote: A bank won't lend 100% of the purchase price, $25M, at a 4-6% interest rate. The sponsor is actually being smart and prudent by only utilizing a 60-70% LTV. So your entire sarcastic post makes no sense. 60% LTV? The original post by aqan states that these properties are being pur...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 356
Views: 23158

Re: Invest in Tesla?

If you want to invest a small percentage of your portfolio in Musk/Tesla, willing to accept its high risk/high reward profile, go right ahead and do so. Like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, it may turn into something quite valuable in a decade or two. On the other hand it could easily go to zero, comp...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return
Replies: 21
Views: 1800

Re: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return

16% -18% per year over 5 years sounds very good indeed. I'm wondering why NIRA is offering this incredible deal and doesn't just borrow money at 4% - 6% and take all this great action themselves. That would provide a 12% to 14% return per year without risking a cent of their own money. Perhaps NIRA ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1128

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

Direct quote from the same article "The Case for Mulitfactor Funds": Expectations might matter most. These funds are no magic elixir. Many have limited track records. No matter how sensible their process may seem, nor how low their fees, there’s no guarantee they will deliver better risk-adjusted r...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 23534

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Jeff Albertson wrote: AQR’s first dedicated fixed-income offering, a fund of American high-yield (that is, junk-rated) bonds, was launched in mid-2016. It outperformed the benchmark index by 2.1 percentage points in its first year, and 2.6 points in its second. Wait until a recession hits and see w...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3511

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

I agree that there is presently risk in higher yielding bond instruments (junk, cov-lite, P2P, student loans, sub-prime car loans, etc.,) and to a less extent in the investment grade corporate bond segment. Yield spreads between these less secure credit instruments and Treasuries contracted during Q...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4286

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I was 100% in stocks in 2000 and almost all of that was in booming tech stocks. It was quite unpleasant to put it mildly and I was retired at the time without an income stream. Pain like that teaches lessons that you don't forget. I learned that balanced portfolios aren't just for sissies especially...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6568

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

stormbringer wrote: This sort of reminds me of 2009, when Warren Buffett warned that inflation was coming due to all the stimulus. Even for the brightest minds, these things can be difficult to predict. What are us mere mortals to do? Agree but the full story of the QE stimulus is not yet written y...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 356
Views: 23158

Re: Invest in Tesla?

matjen wrote: I'm trying to figure out why the price didn't go right up to $420 or at least significantly closer. The only conclusion is that the market is not convinced that much of what Musk says/tweets is truthful. Some short sellers panicked yesterday but I agree that the market as a whole is s...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 356
Views: 23158

Re: Invest in Tesla?

One reason, I suspect, for the Musk announcement was to produce a short squeeze and drive up Tesla's sagging price. Tesla is the most heavily shorted stock in history, I believe, and currently hedge funds have huge short positions. By announcing a potential $420/share private purchase with financing...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund
Replies: 3
Views: 283

Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund

XSOE avoids companies in which the state has more than 20% ownership which is quite common in EM. The theory is that state-owned-enterprises serve two masters, political concerns as well as profits for shareholders. State-owned-enterprises are typically large/mega cap companies concentrated in segme...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

I don't know whether Mr. Reckenthaler's numbers are accurate or not. He is talking about the top 1% of market cap stocks and says that is 67 stocks which he equally weights. That implies that the market itself must include 6,700 stocks and the lower 99% collectively produced no positive return at al...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1075

Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

Direct quote from John Reckenthaler's article on Morningstar website: "The Biggest Companies Deserve to Be Best" Tuesday's column detailed how, in recent years, blue chips have dominated. An investor in August 2013 who sorted all publicly traded firms by their market caps from largest to smallest, s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELOC
Replies: 20
Views: 1343

Re: HELOC

Whether it's a good idea or not depends on your circumstances and the macroeconomic picture. When I was a lot younger and even more foolish than now, I had a great job and took on a great deal of debt, home mortgages and huge stock purchases on the margin. In my case it worked beautifully in the 199...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STIP (Short Term TIP) yield vs TIP
Replies: 14
Views: 922

Re: STIP (Short Term TIP) yield vs TIP

Yield curves are flattening in all bonds, most so at present in TIPS. Duration risk is completely unrewarded at present in the TIPS market. Both ST and IT/LT TIPS in theory have no inflation risk, although increase in term risk implies that IT/LT TIPS will likely have greater variability in principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2175

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

The timing and degree of mean reversion cannot be accurately predicted beforehand. After it has occurred some can look at the charts and say that this market action was inevitable at this point. So it was in the tech boom and collapse of 2000. Most market mavens during the tech boom argued that "Thi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2506

Re: Annuity vs investment

So an annuity is 6% return when you are 65, right? Return? It's not really a return on investment but rather a return of your investment. It's giving you 6% of your own premium payment back annually for the first 16 and 2/3 years. Even if the issuing company makes nothing at all on your million dol...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth
Replies: 5
Views: 1327

Re: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth

Hats off to Allan Roth who tells the simple unvarnished truth without trying to sell you anything. Most of us, including me, are guilty of overcomplicating investing. We tend not to admit that we don't know with certainty whether increased complexity is going to produce the desired results. Simplici...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2506

Re: Annuity vs investment

I admit up front that I'm not objective about annuities. I believe investors who have balanced portfolios aligned to their risk tolerance will achieve better long term returns at lower cost with more flexibility than those who choose annuities for a large percentage of their assets. The annuity mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs. Growth & Taxes
Replies: 15
Views: 979

Re: Value vs. Growth & Taxes

I don't know when the growth/value tide will turn again and value will once again have its day. Historically the two styles alternate in outperformance over time spans measured in years, not months. I believe there have been periods as long as 15 years historically in which value underperformed. Cur...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 10754

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

willthrill81 wrote: I'm surprised people are downing Facebook. Their net income was $20.2 billion last year, more than triple what it was in 2015. Amazon's net income last year was just $4.1 billion, yet their market cap is 72% higher than Facebook's. 1+ Facebook has real and growing profits and co...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Hustle Movie
Replies: 35
Views: 5008

Re: China Hustle Movie

I believe that it is entirely clear that there are greater risks to investing in China or EM in general than in DM and especially in the US which has for decades offered for the best equity risk/reward tradeoff in the world IMO. That fact is however reflected in the relative valuation differences be...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 492

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

Greg in Idaho wrote: I have always been amazed, particularly in academic circles, what economists get away with...often along the lines of "according to these assumptions, some of which we know to be false, a number of others are our best guesses, and all of which leave out a number of factors that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker
Replies: 33
Views: 4040

Re: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker

I used to listen to Money Talk and I have subscribed to Bob's Newsletter for years. I believe that overall his advice and analysis is good. Many talk about his infamous QQQ call which turned out to be wrong and therefore discount all his advice. The fact is that he called correctly the tech collapse...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1376

Re: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?

Based on the difference between Treasury yields and TIPS yields there seems to be a consistent expectation of inflation over the next 5, 10, and even 30 years at slightly more than 2%. Little expected change in inflation which remains low and stable by long term historical standards for 5, 10, or 30...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 23, 2018 12:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016
Replies: 33
Views: 3159

Re: Inflation — Perspectives from Two Centuries, 1800-2016

Great post, Todd, and great comments from all.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 22, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?
Replies: 10
Views: 1145

Re: Can factor investing kill off the hedge fund?

Can't get to article, but it's an interesting question. Another interesting question: Can the increasing popularity of factor investing kill off the very premiums it seeks? The value factor for example was first described by Fama and French in 1992, the same year that Vanguard introduced it's Value ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 17, 2018 7:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]
Replies: 14
Views: 2342

Re: Titans of Junk: Behind the Debt Binge That Now Threatens Markets [Bloomberg article]

I don't think there will be serious trouble in the corporate bond market until we have a recession. As Buffett has said, when the economic tide goes out, you find out who's not wearing a swimsuit. A lot of high-yield debt has been issued by weaker/more leveraged companies over the past 9 years. If t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 13, 2018 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?
Replies: 15
Views: 1840

Re: Does tilting towards shorter-term bonds make sense?

I shortened the average duration of my bond portfolio considerably a bit more than a year ago. At the time both rates and inflation were rising slowly but steadily and expected to continue doing so, a situation that penalizes longer duration. That was anticipated but you're never sure it's going to ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 11, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates
Replies: 7
Views: 1025

Re: VMMXX and inflation/interest rates

MMF do a better job of keeping up with inflation/interest rates than do longer term bonds during environments of rising inflation and rising rates. MMF tend not to produce positive real returns during these periods but rather to suffer less in real inflation adjusted terms than do longer term bonds....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks
Replies: 198
Views: 18894

Re: Morningstar: prepare for a lost decade for U.S. stocks

Rick wrote: The risks are 1) rising interest rates compete with stocks 2) robust earnings growth doesn’t continue as forecast 3) the risk of a more subdued forecast for 2020 and beyond. Taking all this into consideration, even though earnings forecasts are higher in the short-run, stock return fore...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 9072

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

SimpleGift wrote: 1) 100% nominal bonds is not a safe portfolio allocation for any long-term investor. Allocating 25%-40% to stocks would likely help preserve real capital values over long holding periods, especially with periodic withdrawals. 2) Allocations to TIPS, short-term bonds and cash would...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?
Replies: 7
Views: 1358

Is Your Retirement Portfolio All-Weather?

Morningstar article by Christine Benz on 5 potential risks to prepare for before they happen. The later stages of a long bull market is likely a good time to take a look at your portfolio to decide whether you and it are prepared for the potential risks the future may hold for us going forward. http...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 09, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Capping Emergency Fund
Replies: 53
Views: 4971

Re: Capping Emergency Fund

My emergency fund, Vanguard's Prime MMF, covers between 2 and 3 years of my full living expenses, longer than most because I have an equity dominated portfolio (66/34) even though I'm retired. This came in very handy during the market crash of 2007-9, which I survived without selling a single share ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 07, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison
Replies: 66
Views: 5784

Re: The Worst U.S. Portfolio Disasters — A Historical Comparison

siamond wrote: My overall feedback to the OP is that, by overly focusing on a few cherry-picked starting points, one can end up with very flawed conclusions about their own strategy for the future. 1+ Excellent point, siamond. Great discussion also. Graphs, like statistics, if tortured sufficiently...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Trend reversals?
Replies: 2
Views: 337

Trend reversals?

This is a piece from Charles Schwab on trends which have been persistent for years and which may have reached the extreme levels that have been historically associated with trend reversal. The trends of growth outperforming value, US outperforming INTL, and SC outperforming LC might reverse going fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 06, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr -3 mo. Yield spread now at 0.98%
Replies: 2
Views: 513

Re: 30 yr -3 mo. Yield spread now at 0.98%

There seems to be an immense demand for long term TIPS which is why the yield is so low. Looks like a lot of investors/financial firms are doing long term liability matching portfolio planning in inflation adjusted dollars. Also looks like a lot of investors/firms are not optimistic about long term ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 05, 2018 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000
Replies: 48
Views: 6708

Re: Jack Bogle is not a "buy&hold at any price goose", he looks at valuations, he sold his stocks in year 2000

nedsaid wrote; Mr. Bogle, were he to post under a pseudonym, would likely be hooted out of the forum that bears his name. He is not as doctrinaire as we suppose. He has a flexible mind, thinks aloud, floats ideas, and speaks his mind. I will say that over his lifetime that his underlying philosophy...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?
Replies: 38
Views: 2727

Re: If you tilt toward Small Cap Value, how much do you tilt?

US: 75% TSM, 25% SCV (PRFZ) INTL: 25% LCV, 25% LCB, 50% SCV I do not believe that factor approaches in the highly efficient and professionally dominated US LC space are likely to produce higher risk-adjusted returns than VOO or VTI. So I use cap-weighted indexes for LC exposure in the US and to a le...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs
Replies: 83
Views: 5307

Re: Morningstar: What to Consider When Picking Multifactor ETFs

The Morningstar article points out the theoretical advantages of a multi-factor approach and mentions its 2 favorite ETFs which combine a good approach with low costs, GSLC and LRGF. According to Morningstar graphs, neither of these ETFs has departed significantly during their approximately 3 year l...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 04, 2018 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?
Replies: 44
Views: 3160

Re: Switch to LT bonds in this falling rate environment?

It is currently expected that the FED will hike short term rates 2 more times this year and perhaps 2 - 3 times next year. That means short term rates are very likely to rise in the near term. Long term rates are very hard to predict but the yield curve is expected to flatten further if these expect...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 8:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Premium Is 5th Biggest In History
Replies: 18
Views: 2187

Re: Small Cap Premium Is 5th Biggest In History

A good reason IMO to own both small and large caps. Alternating periods of outperformance produce diversification benefit with or without increased risk adjusted long term returns.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 03, 2018 4:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"
Replies: 145
Views: 12324

Re: Treasury Auction - Nobody Came: "Great T-Bill Massacre"

I do not believe there will be a shortage of buyers for US. government debt anytime in the foreseeable future. A more significant potential problem is rising interest rates which will increase finance costs for our massive levels of debt as that debt is rolled over as lower yielding bonds increasing...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 02, 2018 1:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Tariffs/Inflation/Rates
Replies: 24
Views: 1789

Re: Tariffs/Inflation/Rates

Tariffs tend to increase inflation (imported goods more expensive) and to decrease GDP growth. That combo, if it gets out of hand, poses a potential risk of stagflation. Both inflation rates and interest rates are currently in a rising cycle although it is not clear when this cycle will end. There a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Hedge funds basically scams?
Replies: 36
Views: 3173

Re: Are Hedge funds basically scams?

nisi wrote: "Scam" is a harsh word. Eugene Fama famously said of hedge funds, "If you want to invest in something where they steal your money and don’t tell you what they’re doing, be my guest." Does that equate to "scam?" No. However, the fact that people invest trillions of dollars in hedge funds...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 01, 2018 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5724

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

It's hard to paint this picture with a broad brush, stating categorically that all investors should have an advisor or that all investors should not have an advisor. Those whose investment decisions are driven by wide emotional swings and therefore likely to sell at the bottom or buy at the top migh...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 9:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lessons from Cliff Asness
Replies: 2
Views: 779

Re: Lessons from Cliff Asness

I agree with Mr. Asness. Charles Schwab did a study some years ago trying to define which segment of their clients got the best long term investing results. They were hoping it would shed light on many of the questions we argue about all the time--simple index versus factor, bond versus stock, activ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 30, 2018 8:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent
Replies: 15
Views: 1962

Re: Levering a portfolio to a 60/40 equivalent

grok87 wrote: You are backtesting against a period starting in the mid 80s when bond yields have massively declined. You should also backtest against a period of rising interest rates like from the 60s through 1981. If stocks and bonds both lose money at the same time then a leveraged portfolio lik...