Search found 2010 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 17, 2018 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent
Replies: 61
Views: 3865

Re: Vanguard's Quantitative Equity Group Losing Talent

matjen wrote: There is more of an intellectual/execution/technology arms race to make the quant strategies work it seems to me. Vanguard may not be able play there as effectively as in the other areas. Make quant strategies work? Work for whom? The available evidence suggests that quant strategies ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 17, 2018 11:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules
Replies: 14
Views: 2265

Re: Larry Swedroe: 7 Investing Rules

I believe Larry's article can save many investors a lot of pain and regret simply by following these 7 rules.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions
Replies: 29
Views: 1739

Re: Larry Swedroe: Momentum Distinctions

cheezit wrote: the returns of small versus small-value over the roughly 18-year period from the creation of the iShares ETFs that track the relevant S&P indices until the present, or the returns of large versus large-value over the same period, or the returns of mid versus mid-value over the same p...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 16, 2018 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?
Replies: 100
Views: 6179

Re: If riskier than US, why doesn't international outperform?

There is an inherent lack of predictability in the market. Mr. Market seems to enjoy frustrating those who develop theories and narratives to explain why it does what it does when it does, and to predict its future. In theory taking on increased risk is expected to produce increased reward because t...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 14, 2018 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1508
Views: 213367

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

InertiaMan wrote: Virtually any backtest in Portfolio Visualizer over the life of QSPIX (Nov 2013 thru Oct 2018) will produce a slightly higher CAGR at a nearly identical SD when you compare a TSM/TBM to TSM/TBM/QSPIX portfolio. This is true over a wide range of TSM/TBM proportions (I checked from ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 1:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1508
Views: 213367

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

Random Walker wrote: S&P 500 -1.97% Dow -2.32% Russell 2K -1.98% QSPIX +0.52% (style premia: value, CS mom, defensive, carry across multiple asset classes) QMHRX +0.87% (TS mom across multiple asset classes) LENDX 0% (alt lending) AVRPX -.22% (variance risk premium multiple asset classes) QRPRX +0....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years
Replies: 10
Views: 1915

Re: Expected nominal return in 80/20 stock/bond fund for next 10 years

The accuracy of any such prediction is not sufficient to be actionable. It is a waste of time. The range of potential outcomes is extremely high. No one consistently hits the bulls eye predicting the market's future. There are no exceptions to that rule. The best most of us can do is to select a low...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 13, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret
Replies: 114
Views: 13149

Re: Diversification Regret

vineviz wrote: My view is that regret-averse investors are possibly much better served by being encouraged to use a single balanced fund (like target date funds or Vanguard's LifeStrategy funds) rather than an unbundled collection of individual funds. Balanced fund investors are not necessarily imm...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 11, 2018 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 24
Views: 1909

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

It's important to remember that there's another remedy for black swans that is more tax efficient, less costly, and produces higher long term returns than the Swan ETF. It requires a strong investor stomach, a balanced portfolio, and in the absence of a secure income stream, a liquid emergency fund ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 09, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12768

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Random Walker wrote: Can start with international and EM, then add SV, then other uncorrelated styles across different asset classes, and perhaps move on to reinsurance, variance risk premium, alternative lending. Each incremental improvement in portfolio efficiency comes at increased cost. It’s up...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 09, 2018 10:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A reminder: Stay away from AQR
Replies: 172
Views: 12768

Re: A reminder: Stay away from AQR

Cliff Asness is brilliant and knowledgeable as are many in AQR. They use sophisticated and complex strategies that are solidly based on academic backtesting which is a bit like being solidly based on shifting sand. There is a wide gulf between academic backtesting results and real world results of f...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7096

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

I think Paul's 2 Funds for Life is a great idea. For 30 years I have invested to maximize total return, a strategy which has gone through alternating cycles of outperformance and underperformance relative to a TDF. I'm now 71 and with the passing of every year now, the appeal gets stronger to me for...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 07, 2018 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?
Replies: 145
Views: 10540

Re: This man can predict when bubbles burst: time to time the market?

I have a strong fundamental belief that no one, no formula, and no method can reliably and consistently predict the market's future: when bubbles will actually form or burst, or any other major market moves. There are too many variables in behavioral herd psychology/investor sentiment which interpla...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market
Replies: 38
Views: 5211

Re: Brett Arends: Here's a simple way to beat a bear market

I have a simple rule. Anytime anyone tells you they have discovered a simple way to consistently beat the market, it's time to stop listening.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Creating your own dividends vs High dividend fund
Replies: 10
Views: 1135

Re: Creating your own dividends vs High dividend fund

PJW wrote: Taking into account the market movements and ignoring taxes the two situations are identical, but a dividend-focused fund will be concentrated into certain types of stocks. PJW 1+ There is no magic in dividends IMO. Using solely dividend based approaches to provide income and never resor...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 06, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle
Replies: 19
Views: 2710

Re: II - The Wall Street Math Hustle

I enjoyed reading this article and have finally encountered someone who is more skeptical about Wall Street than I am. For many years, alpha was the Holy Grail of investment and almost all money managers claimed they could produce it. Then, under a Jupiter-sized weight of evidence that no investment...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 05, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 7711

Re: How low can BND go?

Bill Bernstein wrote: A similar way to look at it is with the Ibbotson series for the worst draw-down in long bonds, from 8/31/77 to 9/30/81, which yields the following results: Long Treasuries: -18% 5-Year Treasuries: +10% 30-day Bills: 49% Inflation: +52% 1+ Duration risk becomes a real problem i...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 04, 2018 6:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Loan Obligations
Replies: 11
Views: 826

Re: Collateralized Loan Obligations

I don't think we face the same kind of systemic financial risk now that we had in the housing bubble. I do believe that after a long bull market (9+yrs) in which risk taking in many areas has been well rewarded, investors may have allowed their portfolios to drift toward risker areas. Personally, I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collateralized Loan Obligations
Replies: 11
Views: 826

Collateralized Loan Obligations

A new and increasingly popular Wall Street invention. They'll hold up until we hit a recession but what happens then? Hope it doesn't turn out like like CDOs did.
Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 04, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corp. high-yield bonds better than international for diversification?
Replies: 16
Views: 1297

Re: Corp. high-yield bonds better than international for diversification?

The timing of the dates for comparison (1986 - 2018) includes 29 years of the greatest bond bull market of all times (1982 - 2015). During that bond bull, bonds of all types produced impressive risk adjusted returns relative to stocks which suffered the 2 worst bear market declines since the Great D...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 03, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How low can BND go?
Replies: 65
Views: 7711

Re: How low can BND go?

MnD wrote: Since July 2016 BND total return has been -2% nominal and approx. -6.4% real. That's consistent with the fund duration and intermediate term interest rate increases since them. What the future holds is unknown but the 35-year bull market in bonds (1981-July 2016) has resulted in most cur...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 02, 2018 11:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?
Replies: 38
Views: 2206

Re: What does your gut tell you; RMD now or in December?

It is not accurately predictable beforehand whether November or December will turn out better. It probably doesn't make a great deal of difference. Personally I'm doing mine in December in order to maximize interest/dividends distributions tax free in my IRA before transferring assets into a persona...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 02, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is an "advanced" investor?
Replies: 34
Views: 2575

Re: What is an "advanced" investor?

staythecourse wrote: To me an advanced investor means one knows enough to know that most stuff doesn't matter beyond the basics. The great thing about this website is the unbelievable depth of knowledge that folks present from their personal knowledge of their careers/ educational backgrounds all f...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 31, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms
Replies: 28
Views: 2482

Re: Vanguard/Blackrock value index funds bias themselves to low growth, and not necessarily high risk, firms

vineviz wrote: In any case, Invesco S&P SmallCap 600 Pure Value ETF (RZV) has superior size, value, and quality factor loadings to DFA US Small Cap Value. True, and also true that RZV has been a disaster for shareholders since its inception 13+ years ago. Attractive factor loadings in the real worl...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 31, 2018 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Politics In Investing
Replies: 7
Views: 849

Re: Larry Swedroe: Ignore Politics In Investing

I believe it to be good advice to ignore politics in investing. There is a wide variety of things that should be ignored when it comes to investing, financial media noise among them.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 29, 2018 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals
Replies: 22
Views: 2228

Re: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals

ralph124cf wrote: I'm not sure where you are getting your DOW numbers from. The DOW was in double digits for all of 1932, falling to a low of 41.22 on July 8, 1932. It finally got back up to triple digits, 100.36, on January 2, 1934. The DOW climbed to 179.90 by the end of 1936, and then fell to 12...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6209

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

RZV has been a disaster ever since it opened 13 yrs ago. Morningstar rates it 2 stars, suggesting it takes on the highest level of risk and produces only average returns. Actually average returns overstates RZV's real returns. Vanguard's Small Cap Blend ETF, has massively outperformed RZV since RZV'...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:32 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: David Swensen Unconventional Success
Replies: 99
Views: 8720

Re: David Swensen Unconventional Success

I just posted this on the thread about timber investing but I believe it is more appropriate here. David Swensen, Yale endowment investment advisor, popularized a diversified non-traditional portfolio which included private equity, hedge funds, real estate and alternate assets. His performance relat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...
Replies: 34
Views: 5464

Re: Timber as an alternative - didn't work so well...

David Swensen, Yale endowment investment advisor, popularized a diversified non-traditional portfolio which included private equity, hedge funds, real estate and alternate assets. His performance relative to other Ivy endowments and to traditional 60/40 portfolios was quite impressive. Swenson himse...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 26, 2018 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life
Replies: 41
Views: 7096

Re: Paul Merriman 2 Funds for Life

Merriman's classic Ultimate Buy and Hold Portfolio had 10 different asset classes each held at a 10% weighting with considerable slants to value and size factors. I haven't listened to his podcast but this portfolio seems much less complex in comparison. For those of us who are older, as CABob point...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 26, 2018 5:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 45
Views: 5651

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

Larry sent me private messages which I'm passing along on the question of alternates during market collapses: fico scores average of about 700 have expected losses in 4-5% range, and about 2x that in an 08 environment. So only about an extra 5% loss, but this fund uses leverage so expect loss would ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts
Replies: 45
Views: 5651

Re: Larry Swedroe: Alternative Approach To Alts

willthrill wrote: Once I reach accredited investor status, I intend to invest in real estate crowdfunding where I and other investors hold a senior lien against real property as security.. That will work, as will P2P lending, when the economy is doing well as it has for years now. The problem comes...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 25, 2018 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6209

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

Robert T wrote: Would just note that over this 15 period (2003-2017) the 'momentum premium' for small caps was negative (in contrast to all other 15 year periods since 1927). No knowing what the next 15 years will bring. Interesting, 15 years of negative returns for the first time in 90 years. I th...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)
Replies: 226
Views: 19479

Re: "Safe" Withdrawal Rate for Early Retirees (or any retiree)

Just my 2 cents worth. I believe it is unwise if you're planing early retirement now to expect more than a 3.0 % total real return going forward from a balanced portfolio. 2.5% is safer. There are multiple reasons to expect that future returns at least over the next decade are going to be a lot lowe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Protecting large sums of cash.
Replies: 30
Views: 4003

Re: Protecting large sums of cash.

Short term Treasuries and T Bills work for safety and security.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 21, 2018 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Large Cap Value - valuation?
Replies: 16
Views: 1081

Re: US Large Cap Value - valuation?

Rising rates and inflation typically produce more negative impact on growth stocks than on value stocks. The thing that causes growth stocks to demand higher valuations is that you're currently paying a significant premium for higher levels of expected future growth years down the road. Inflation di...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:22 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA small value... acitve management?
Replies: 103
Views: 6209

Re: DFA small value... acitve management?

privatefarmer wrote: It seems like they keep "fine tuning" it/throwing in new factors ie profitability/liquidity etc etc, doesn't seem as passive as I once thought... would love some input from anyone w/ more insight... It seems to me that you've got plenty of insight yourself, private farmer. Fact...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 20, 2018 11:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Set it and forget it
Replies: 47
Views: 9262

Re: Set it and forget it

Great comments and great advice for long term investors, Rick, thanks for posting. Many of us agonize over getting the perfect portfolio and constantly tweak it as new data shows the old version is not quite perfect. Simplicity is better sought than avoided IMO. Selecting a widely diversified portfo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 7:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?
Replies: 43
Views: 4128

Re: Are bonds the Maginot Line of Modern Investing?

The following is the web source for the Vanguard Research Paper on how various asset classes hedge for inflation, both expected inflation and unexpected inflation based on historical research from 1970 through 2010. This article is definitely worth reading for those seeking inflation protection. htt...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?
Replies: 5
Views: 547

Re: BRKB overlap with VTSAX overweight AAPL?

Personally, I wouldn't worry much about modestly overweighting something that Warren Buffett finds to be an attractive investment. I view the addition of BRKB to TSM as a positive.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 1:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad
Replies: 7
Views: 992

Re: Larry Swedroe: Active Isn’t All Bad

Vanguard offers some active funds that have truly remarkable records of long term excellence--Primecap, Wellesley, Wellington among them. These funds appear to be consistently run by skillful managers who keep costs low which are the secrets to success in active management. Also, when a successful f...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 19, 2018 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3472

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

marcopolo wrote: This is why i like to try to understand basic concepts and seek simple solutions on which to base my investing decisions, rather than follow any "cult of personality", whether that be Malkiel, Shiller, Siegel, Swedroe, etc. or even Bogle. 1+ This is my approach as well. Garland Whi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta
Replies: 31
Views: 3472

Re: Malkiel no longer endorses blind-folded monkeys, likes smart beta

Siegel is now with Wisdom Tree and Malkiel now is with Wealthfront. Both of these academics used to be enthused by market cap weighted portfolios but are now suggesting factor based approaches. One wonders if they have had an intellectual epiphany about the advantages of factor investing or whether ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets
Replies: 38
Views: 7108

Re: Take your canes out in Emerging Markets

No doubt that hidden debt is a risk for China and we don't know accurately the full extent of the problem. Having said that it's important to recall that the greatest global debt default crisis since the Great Depression originated right under our blind eyes in the USA with the massive financial col...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: StreetShares bonds
Replies: 23
Views: 2071

Re: StreetShares bonds

The bond market very efficiently prices risk. In the current environment when a bond issuer offers a 5% yield, you don't need to study it in detail. It is certain that increased risk is involved. Risk free 5% bonds would disappear so quickly you would never hear about them. Stretching for yield in t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years
Replies: 39
Views: 3021

Re: Top stocks of 2000 trail the market over the next 18 years

willthrill81 wrote: I recall hearing about research which indicated that, on average, the single largest stock by market cap underperformed the rest of the market by something like 5%. Unfortunately, I cannot find it now. Meb Faber of Cambria Investments studied what happened to the largest stocks ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 18, 2018 4:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 193
Views: 59630

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

colombia wrote; For almost 50 years, Wellesley has performed like some mythical, low volatility blue chip stock. 1+ Wellesley has been a great fund for a long time with excellent risk adjusted returns relative to the market. It is a rare example of active management with a great long term track rec...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 17, 2018 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible
Replies: 193
Views: 59630

Re: Vanguard's Wellesley Income fund is incredible

willthrill wrote: It's been estimated that over the entire bond bull market that declining rates boosted bond returns by only about 1%. Eliminating a 1% tailwind wouldn't change my view of Wellesley, but it might change others'. Whoever made that 1% estimate was wildly incorrect and inaccurate in r...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 16, 2018 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear
Replies: 74
Views: 9990

Re: Larry Swedroe: Prepare For The Bear

marcopolo wrote: Most of the people i hear making the argument for staying invested seem to be saying you should do that because you can't predict when the crash is coming, so always be prepared, NOT making the argument that a crash can't happen because this time it is different. Very valid observa...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 16, 2018 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals
Replies: 22
Views: 2228

Re: Monthly vs. Annual Withdrawals

I do annual rebalancing/withdrawals, usually at year end or the early new year, liquidating sufficient equity at that time from IRA (RMD) plus TSM from personal account to provide sufficient cash into my personal MMF to cover all anticipated living expenses for the upcoming year. In addition I keep ...