Search found 1624 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio
Replies: 90
Views: 12268

Re: Taylor's New Book: The Bogleheads' Guide to The Three-Fund Portfolio

I'll read it when it becomes available. Congratulations and thanks to Taylor for authoring the book and for support of the Forum from which all of us learn. Like our mentor, Mr. Bogle, Taylor's goal is not primarily to line his own pocket but rather to share his knowledge with other investors who wi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?
Replies: 99
Views: 15057

Re: Liability Matching Portfolio? Really?

NPT wrote: On a more philosophical note, the theory of safe assets seems to violate the law of no free lunches... 1+ There is risk in any asset, some much greater than others. One major risk of a 100% TIPS LMP is that you cannot accurately estimate what your necessary living costs are going to be i...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 21, 2017 11:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3814

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

Robert T wrote: Another point not really touched on in this thread is taxes. According to M*, since inception of QSPIX: Pre-tax return = 8.21% After-tax return = 5.71% Tax cost = 2.50% So adding expense ratio (1.50%) + tax cost (2.50%) = 4.00% 1+ Very cogent point. Investment returns, regardless of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 4
Views: 468

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 20, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The negative alpha of the Value Factor
Replies: 4
Views: 468

Re: The negative alpha of the Value Factor

Factor analysis doesn't paint the whole picture for equity returns. It is instructive to do a factor analysis of VPMAX, Vanguard's Primecap Fund since its inception more than 16 years ago. During that timespan a 4 factor analysis by Portfolio Visualizer reveals its monthly Market factor at 0.00, its...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.
Replies: 50
Views: 4371

Re: Should we be using high equity retirement portfolios? - Some cFIREsim scenarios.

nedsaid wrote: I don't know. From my experience and having known a lot of "old" people and becoming one myself, it just doesn't seem practical that people are going to maintain 100% and 90% stock allocations throughout retirement. It seems that most people I know get more risk averse as they get ol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 2:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Intrinsic Value
Replies: 6
Views: 650

Re: Intrinsic Value

EMT is a theory, not a law. There are exceptions to the rule from time to time. The market does a better job of setting asset prices in general than the individual. I believe however that there are some individuals who can identify specific stocks or classes of stocks that are mis-priced and/or mis-...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirees: I got this!!
Replies: 82
Views: 9667

Re: Retirees: I got this!!

I've been retired for 20 years and my investment portfolio is larger now than when I first retired. I feel pretty confident now, a lot more confident than I felt during the tech collapse of 2000-2003 or the financial collapse of 2007-2009. I managed to avoid panic selling on both occasions which was...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 19, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)
Replies: 21
Views: 1604

Re: Treasury term premium estimate: negative this year (NY Fed Adrian, Crump, Moench model)

It seems to me that the bottom line for investors is that at present you aren't getting paid much to take on duration risk in the bond market. The spreads between short term and long term bonds have been narrowing, just like the spreads between highest and lowest quality bonds. Add to this the expec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 5:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?
Replies: 53
Views: 3814

Re: Morningstar - AQR: The Vanguard of Alternative Investing?

matjen wrote: What is interesting to me is that we haven't even entered an environment where these types of funds should really shine. When we do, if they perform as expected AQR will explode. If they falter and prove no/little better than beta then major trouble. 1+ I don't think there's any doubt...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Nov 18, 2017 4:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where did you first learn about investing?
Replies: 98
Views: 4534

Re: Where did you first learn about investing?

I think my first and most persistent teacher has been the school of hard knocks. Making investment mistakes and behavioral errors actually turns out to be an effective teacher. Losing money is a potent stimulus for long term memory retention. Missing the opportunity when the gift horse is knocking o...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 16, 2017 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor
Replies: 18
Views: 2041

Goldman Sachs mulls the death of the value factor

An interesting article from from GS explaining the reasons why value has underperformed for a long spell: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-08/goldman-sachs-mulls-death-of-value-investing-after-losing-decade . GS believes a conjunction of macroeconomic factors and monetary policy are r...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value, and Slice and Dice - How Much?
Replies: 6
Views: 758

Re: Value, and Slice and Dice - How Much?

Better "expected returns" with factors. The important word here IMO is not "returns' but "expected." Is it written in stone somewhere that factor out-return expectations are certain to met in the future over a given time frame such that they more than cover the increased costs of accessing the facto...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Nov 13, 2017 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?
Replies: 63
Views: 6165

Re: Should you own only non-U.S. stocks?

Should you own only non-U.S. stocks? NO!

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Nov 12, 2017 1:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are we headed for a crash or...
Replies: 19
Views: 1828

Re: Are we headed for a crash or...

Phineas J Whoopee wrote: We are always headed for a crash. We just don't know by how much, nor how far in the future. Crashes have happened and will again. It's best to design a portfolio and investment policy with that fact in mind. We are also always headed for a lesser downturn, and headed for g...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Nov 10, 2017 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Past Performance Deceives
Replies: 2
Views: 561

Re: Larry Swedroe: Past Performance Deceives

Excellent article. Thanks for posting, Dave, and keeping us up to date with Larry. Performance chasing doesn't work and yet it is persistent and common. Investing behavior often seems to be determined by skating after where the puck was, particularly in selecting active management. This article unde...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA access
Replies: 27
Views: 2486

Re: DFA access

I find the factor load chart interesting. DFSVX has much stronger exposure to the value factor than VBR. It also has much more exposure to the size factor than VBR. It manages to do this with only very slightly more negative MOM (-.08 versus -.05). Clearly in terms of these 3 factors, DFSVX is a muc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Nov 09, 2017 8:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?
Replies: 35
Views: 2179

Re: Has “Dividend Yield” Become Globally Obsolete?

nisi wrote: NASDAQ has a "buyback achievers" index, there's at least one ETF that tracks it (PKW) and at least one international buyback achievers ETF (IPKW). I keep waiting for them to get some forum attention, for people to say they own it or are fans of it, but it doesn't seem to have happened y...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?
Replies: 22
Views: 2212

Re: Right Bond Allocation - Government v. Credit?

SimpleGift wrote: • Do you want the highest expected return, and are not that concerned about portfolio volatility? Then tilting toward corporate bonds might make sense — accepting that they are usually more highly correlated with equities during market meltdowns. • Are you willing to sacrifice a b...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Nov 08, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"
Replies: 69
Views: 8727

Re: "I took all my money out of the stock market and it feels amazing"

When has one "won the game" with a high level of certainty? Life expectancy is clearly increasing on average and for an individual the years of life remaining are uncertain. Many these days live well into their 90s and to be prudent one should probably estimate lifespan to be at the high end of the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Nov 07, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 37
Views: 3653

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

2% is the minimum real yield I would even consider for purchase of a 30 year TIPS bond. Massive duration risk requires at least that IMO. There is always the chance that you or I won't live for 30 years to wait for maturity in which case duration risk may take a huge bite out of principal value. If ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 28, 2017 11:28 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG
Replies: 28
Views: 3274

Re: Bernstein's bond choice for cowards and ST IG

I own 4 bond funds, and STIG is one of them. I own both short and intermediate term high quality bonds. I include investment grade as high quality and of course government bonds. ST are less susceptible to inflation and/or principal loss in an increasing rate environment. IT yield more and in the ab...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 25, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Multi-factor investing
Replies: 2
Views: 395

Multi-factor investing

AQR Large Cap Multi-Style offers a well-crafted, scientific approach to stock selection at a reasonable price, but it hasn't proven itself yet This quote is from Morningstar which I believe to be an objective source, describing QCELX. AQR is run by brilliant people, adept students of market history...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 23, 2017 1:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2149

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

Random Walker wrote in response to my post: Also, you mention that at your age you wonder if there will be enough time for the factors to show their benefit. I would contend that the shorter the time horizon, possibly the more valuable factor diversification. Over short periods of time we don’t kno...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 22, 2017 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?
Replies: 31
Views: 2149

Re: After Market Beta’s Long Run Do you Consider Diversifying Into Other Factors?

What I have been doing recently is acting my age for a change. I am 70, have been retired for 20 years, and as of last year still had a portfolio that was 66% equity and 34% bonds, some beta sand some factor in equity. I am now at a point in life where the uncertainty of risk outweighs the potential...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 112
Views: 25848

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

rj49 wrote: Wellington has become an unwieldy behemoth that threw in the value towel to invest in Alphabet, Apple, and other growth stocks and seems like a closet index fund (while underperforming its relevant index for the past 5 years). To return to the good old days of 5% Wellesley yields, both ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 112
Views: 25848

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]

The equity side of both funds concentrates on large cap quality stocks but only purchases them when they are perceived to be undervalued. LC VAL/QUAL, precisely the strategy that Buffett uses. In periods when growth outperforms value as in recent years, this strategy underperforms, but typically ove...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 20, 2017 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?
Replies: 33
Views: 4424

Re: Why is inflation so low? Moore's law?

Technology advance has suppressed inflation pressure, no doubt. The other major factor is globalization which allows production capital to flow to cheaper labor markets and lower the cost of production. Current tariff structures then allow less expensive goods produced in EM to flow back into DM wit...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?
Replies: 18
Views: 1379

Re: Odds against Renaissance Medallion Fund if Efficient Markets Hypothesis is valid?

The market is not now and has never been totally efficient. Investment decisions made by humans are often irrational, driven more by emotion than reason. The argument is not that the market is perfectly efficient. The argument is that most of us, including most of the outrageously paid active fund m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration [now available]
Replies: 112
Views: 25848

Re: Vanguard's Global Wellesley Income and Global Wellington Funds in registration

Both Vanguard W funds have long term impressive performance records for the niches in which they operate. I believe they have effectively selected attractive risk/reward tradeoffs with a conservative slant. Presumably their global funds will pursue the same strategies with a diversified global portf...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 18, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction
Replies: 51
Views: 6608

Re: Larry Swedroe:Better To Face The Correction

I think Larry's article makes an excellent point that often gets overlooked: no one can consistently and accurately predict future market action. Period. Larry is IMO a brilliant and accomplished student of the market and this piece offers insight. The opportunity cost of missing out on further mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 17, 2017 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The overselling of international diversification
Replies: 56
Views: 5040

Re: The overselling of international diversification

CULater wrote: In other words, international stock diversification works the wrong way: correlations are low with U.S. stocks when U.S. stocks have good returns, and high when U.S. stocks have poor returns. This is true for backtesting over the period chosen for this paper. US equities have outperf...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 13557

Re: Annuities-when and why?

ResearchMed wrote: I don't think the "high fee structure and very generous sales commissions" are characteristic of SPIAs, As for sales commissions for SPIA, the following is a quote from https://blog.annuity123.com/how-do-annuity-commissions-get-paid-to-the-agent/ The sales commissions as well as ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 184
Views: 21529

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

I think the use of alternate funds is a matter of personal taste. Lots of smart guys and adept investors use them. Lots of smart guys and adept investors don't use them. I'm with the latter group. Rational arguments can be made on both sides of this question.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?
Replies: 23
Views: 1886

Re: Life-insurance for young couple. Advice?

Term life insurance only until your asset base is large enough that you no longer need it.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 16, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuities-when and why?
Replies: 94
Views: 13557

Re: Annuities-when and why?

Just an opinion of mine, not gospel for others. If you interested in annuities (most IMO do not benefit from them), use only SPIAs and defer purchase as long as possible unless you're losing your marbles. Annuities provide longevity insurance and also insurance against making bad financial judgement...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 184
Views: 21529

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

I wrote a post about VRRIX.
zaboomafoozarg wrote:
Did you mean SRRIX, the Stone Ridge reinsurance fund?
Yes, I did mean SRRIX. Thanks for the correction.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Oct 15, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?
Replies: 47
Views: 4282

Re: 30 year tips auction-thursday 10/19, yield 0.86%?

Doc wrote regarding 30 yr. TIPS:
I would be buying tens or even sevens with the intention of rolling them when they mature to build my 30 year LMP. Taking 30 years of term risk for less than 1% is iffy.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Oct 14, 2017 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 184
Views: 21529

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

It's all a matter of personal taste, but alternate invests other than equity (US and INTL, cap weight and factor) in addition to high quality US high bonds are for me sufficient. I expect my portfolio value to go up and down in the short term but to go up reliably over the long term. I am comfortabl...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Oct 13, 2017 7:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]
Replies: 97
Views: 8544

Re: And the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences goes to [Richard Thaler]

VictoriaF wrote: A summary of The Black Swan is short: BS happens. But reading, and rereading, and listening to, and internalizing his vignettes does you a lot of good. You start anticipating Black Swans and choosing your risks. Agreed. The problem however is that you don't know beforehand where th...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on IMTM fund?
Replies: 1
Views: 284

Re: Thoughts on IMTM fund?

MOM is a well supported factor on academic research but funds which seek to exploit it usually fail. MTUM is an exception, doing well because relative to other MOM funds, it keeps costs low, trades less, is long only, and operates only in the LC space. If IMTM is run by the same team it may use the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Do You Like My New 'Doo
Replies: 100
Views: 21259

Re: How Do You Like My New 'Doo

Nedsaid, you're an experienced and, in my opinion, savvy investor. If you have trouble beating the S&P 500 over a decade, that says a lot. Earlier in my investing career in the 1980s and 1990s, I was 100% individual stocks, no mutual funds, no index funds, just stock picking. That seemed to work qui...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston
Replies: 35
Views: 6366

Re: With panicked homeowners selling their flooded homes for 40¢ on the dollar, investors are flocking to Houston

Disasters devastate people's lives but, ironically, at the same time they can create investment opportunities for those who have liquid cash and good judgement. The problem during disasters is that few in the devastated areas are sitting on piles of cash. Disasters destroy wealth, flood disasters es...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 74
Views: 7384

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

I agree with Larry's assessment. If you're looking to juice returns by increasing risk/volatility, I believe INTL exposure including EM is an attractive place to look, more so than concentrating solely on seeking factor premiums in richly priced, more efficient US markets. I also believe that both b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 2979

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The other side of the coin, a confession: for the first decades of my investing career I was 100% in stocks and REITS, no bonds at all until I had been retired for 5 years. I never sold a single share during any market decline. This allowed me to take full advantage of the greatest bull market in US...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7275

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

FIREchief wrote: Isn't "buying" inflation protection for only a modest portion of your bond portfolio like buying fire insurance only for a modest portion of your house? If TIPS were my only inflation protection that would be true. As nedsaid pointed out my portfolio is equity heavy, (66 stock/34 b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Oct 10, 2017 11:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler
Replies: 6
Views: 859

12 things you can learn from Richard Thaler

Interesting insights from recent Nobel Prize winner that question the validity of much of existing economic and investing theory. Comments?

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/12-th ... 2017-10-09

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS
Replies: 92
Views: 7275

Re: Vanguard's long-term outlook for TIPS

The case can be made that the optimal time to buy inflation protection is not when inflation is actively increasing or expected to increase substantially in the near future. At such times, nominal bonds suffer substantial principal loss and TIPS become quite expensive. Currently, little if any infla...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?
Replies: 3
Views: 429

Re: Can Option Strategies enable risk averse investors to have a higher degree of Small Value tilt?

I wouldn't do this strategy. First, there is no certainty that SCV will outperform over your personal time frame, regardless of backtesting. Backtesting suggests but does not define a future. There are legitimate reasons to question whether SCV's robust outperformance will continue in the future (ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.
Replies: 19
Views: 2979

Re: Buffett: U.S. Stocks have been safer than Cash or Treasuries over the last 50 Years.

The question is: can you tolerate keeping a 100% stock portfolio for decades? If so, investing only in equities and only for the long run is expected to maximize return. You need to be 100% sure you won't need to tap into the money for decades, no chance of losing your high paying job or, alternatel...