Search found 2382 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 12, 2019 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Central banks drive income seeking investors to equities
Replies: 32
Views: 1335

Central banks drive income seeking investors to equities

Zero/negative interest rates have driven income seeking investors in Japan to increase risk exposure especially to dividend stocks over the last 20 years. All DM broad equity market indexes currently yield more than their respective 10 year sovereign bonds. Bonds used to be for both income and safet...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 27, 2019 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?
Replies: 47
Views: 3819

Re: At what point would Bonds be considered a bubble or 'speculative asset'?

SimpleGift wrote: As long as the expectations for future growth and inflation stay low, bond yields will stay low and prices high. 1+ As usual SimpleGift gets beneath the surface and to the cause of the situation. Central bank policy is not cause but effect. The thing that drives central bank polic...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 26, 2019 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks
Replies: 58
Views: 5193

Re: WSJ Article: Think Before You Fish for Bargains in Chinese Stocks

What is clear from this commentary is that there are very strong opinions about China and nowhere near as much real economic knowledge. If you don't trust and don't like China it's very easy not to invest in it. If you think that China's increased risks are currently priced into valuation difference...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 25, 2019 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)
Replies: 34
Views: 3585

Re: Overweight China and Emerging Markets? (Ray Dalio)

Since the poster asked for opinions, I'll throw in my 2 cents worth. Like Dalio I overweight both China and EM in general relative to their cap weights in the world index. My equity exposure is 50US/25EM/25DM. There is no doubt that historically EM are more volatile and risky, and that new share iss...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 24, 2019 3:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)
Replies: 62
Views: 4814

Re: Rob Arnott on value investing and the Achilles' heel of market cap indexing (Morningstar podcast)

nisi wrote: The rhetoric for fundamental indexing sounds plausible, but in the real world, running real money in real funds I don't see any compelling evidence of superiority. "Achilles heel?" Not even plantar fasciitis. Randomly jigger the weights a bit and get random differences in performance 1+...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 23, 2019 4:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25247

Re: Larry Swedroe: Factor Investing Works (Despite What Some May Say)

willthrill81 wrote: The problem is that many people believe that simply owning everything possible results in the greatest diversification possible. But from the perspective of diversifying your portfolio, it is mathematically false. I think the correct way to say the last sentence is: Based on fac...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 23, 2019 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Manufacturing recession and unemployment
Replies: 19
Views: 1232

Re: Manufacturing recession and unemployment

Clearly automation and globalization are secular forces that have been reducing manufacturing employment in the US for a long time even as total production has increased in spite of fewer workers due to automation. The problem may be that we are so efficient at production with tech advances and auto...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Preferred Stock
Replies: 27
Views: 1633

Re: Preferred Stock

Preferred stock has higher risk/volatility than bonds but with the expectation of higher returns. Preferred has lower expected returns than equity but with lower risk/volatility. Preferred stock is in the intermediate risk/reward tradeoff zone like high yield bonds which Rick also employs in portfol...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 23, 2019 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]
Replies: 58
Views: 220677

Re: Collective thoughts [investing mini-reference]

Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2018 https://www.credit-suisse.com/media/ass ... y-2018.pdf Interesting reading. Their summary comments on factor investing: We report on the profitability of following strategies based on market capitalization, value versus growth, dividend yield, st...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Personal Advisor Services rocked today!
Replies: 20
Views: 3704

Re: Personal Advisor Services rocked today!

I find investing strategy, asset allocation/management, and tax minimization fascinating topics. I have studied and tried to understand these things for decades. My wife however has no interest and little knowledge in these topics. I have told her that if something happens to me, she should get a fe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foreign Investment in U.S. Stocks & Bonds, 2000-2019
Replies: 2
Views: 307

Re: Foreign Investment in U.S. Stocks & Bonds, 2000-2019

SimpleGift wrote: The main conclusion of the paper is that foreign demand for "safe assets," particularly U.S. Treasuries, may now be playing a much larger role in the determination of U.S. interest rates than in previous decades. Thoughts? My thought is that the above conclusion is entirely true a...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 7:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle "5% Gold"
Replies: 248
Views: 27245

Re: Bogle "5% Gold"

I believe most Bogleheads, me included, do not invest in real physical gold or in the GLD ETF. Interestingly two famous investors who were never gold bugs in the past and who saw no real place in a portfolio for gold may have recently reconsidered. Bogle shocked the world when he recently suggested ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification Regret Index
Replies: 161
Views: 19916

Re: Diversification Regret Index

Quotes from Bernstein in the interview with Jason Zweig listed in the siamond's post above. Great interview with someone who has been investing long enough to know that we really know very little reliably about the market's future. Food for thought. For institutional investors, the policy portfolio ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3651

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

valuethinker wrote: Re the Argentine bond, it is a USD bond. So you are insulated against Argentine peso inflation. Yes the bond will default. However eventually it will be restructured. You won't get 100 cents on the dollar, but you might get 30-50 cents/ dollar. Not exactly a great investing resu...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stable value funds?
Replies: 11
Views: 675

Re: Stable value funds?

I believe stable value funds are a solution in search of a problem. Short term Treasuries and TIPS inherently have very stable values and, unlike some stable value funds, they have a low cost structure and are very liquid. The financial industry constantly invents complex expensive products for prob...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 21, 2019 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21008

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

Puts and calls work beautifully if you know exactly what the future is going to be over a given time frame. No one knows that consistently. There are very few investors who use these strategies and actually derive net benefit. Essentially all of them are full time professionals, skillful and sophist...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the trade war turning into a currency war?
Replies: 4
Views: 447

Is the trade war turning into a currency war?

Interesting article by Jeffrey Klientop of Charles Schwab. https://www.schwab.com/resource-center/insights/content/is-tariff-war-turning-into-currency-war He suggests that US has the advantage over China in a trade war, but China has the advantage in a currency war. We're not in an outright currency...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund
Replies: 31
Views: 3522

Re: Simple-minded inspection of actual low-vol fund

I agree with nisi on this point. The following is an article by Christine Benz of Morningstar on portfolio diversification. Her main point is summarized in the lead sentence: Despite a proliferation of diversification alternatives, high-quality bonds have provided the best antidote to equities over ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 19, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total market index fund and recency
Replies: 29
Views: 2013

Re: Total market index fund and recency

HomerJ wrote: I'm not saying what's right or what's wrong, but no one is able to get a PhD, or get funding for research or publish papers in the Journal of Portfolio Management or get investors to buy your funds by saying "TSM is all anyone needs". However, you can make a couple billion dollars in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 18, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Money market rate direction
Replies: 14
Views: 1691

Re: Money market rate direction

It all depends on what the FED does and how fast it does it. MMF rates will almost instantly reflect whatever the new FED rate is. Changes in bond yields will vary according to bond duration. LTB may not change at all or may even go in the opposite direction depending on what investors believe will ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds
Replies: 36
Views: 3651

Re: Bloomberg: U.S. Weighs Selling 50- and 100-Year Bonds

Following in the footsteps of Argentina whose 100 year bonds offerings at 7.5% in recent years were hugely over-subscribed by yield hungry investors. How did that work out for those investors? The currency of issue got killed and the underlying economy has fallen apart. Those bonds are now good to l...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 17, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Large gap in tax equivalent yield for similar duration (VGIT - interm Treasuries vs VWIUX interm muni)?
Replies: 12
Views: 1068

Re: Large gap in tax equivalent yield for similar duration (VGIT - interm Treasuries vs VWIUX interm muni)?

There is a high level of concern at present about a global economic slowdown/fear of recession. In addition the ex-US developed world has 15 billion of negative yielding debt at present. Both of these factors drive investors both in the US and particularly in foreign DMs who don't want the pay their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 17, 2019 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30
Replies: 61
Views: 4464

Re: Any retired person have stocks and cash I was thinking about a 70/30

I've been retired for 22 years and I'm still heavily invested in equity (65% - 70%), and the remainder in high quality US bonds plus Prime MMF which I keep in my personal non-tax deferred account. I sell Prime MMMF as needed to provide for living expenses and replenish it once a year when I rebalanc...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 16, 2019 2:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25247

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

Elysium wrote: Where is the merit for over weighting value? There is in fact a case of over weighting Growth one would imagine based on actual performance, but we know that wouldn't be wise as Growth will cool off at some point, same applies to Value. 1+ The argument for overweighting value is base...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 3910

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

vineviz wrote: The other half of interest rate risk is “reinvestment risk”, which is the risk that bond payments will be reinvested at a different (lower) rate if yields changed. Interesting that this looks at only one side of reinvestment risk (lower rates). If rates are rising reinvestment of low...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 15, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense
Replies: 92
Views: 6612

Re: Why Zero (or Negative) Interest Rates Could Someday Make Sense

As always, SimpleGift, a thoughtful post that looks beneath the surface and questions basic assumptions. I don't know whether we'll get to negative interest rates in the US, but clearly there is no law against it, as Switzerland, Germany, and Japan know too well. I strongly suspect that the glut of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 14, 2019 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap, Factor Investing Works]
Replies: 673
Views: 25247

Re: Larry Swedroe: Small Value Stocks are Cheap

willthrill81 wrote: He reviews Prof. French's data, which indicates that SCV outperformed the S&P 500 by over 4% annually, and DFA's SCV fund's (DFSVX) outperformance of the S&P 500 by 9.4% annually since 1993. But over the last decade, that same fund trailed the S&P 500 by 1.7% annually. First of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 14, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018
Replies: 11
Views: 1235

Re: Source of U.S. Stock Market Returns, 1952-2018

SimpleGift wrote: One implication is that, for future stock market returns to keep pace with that of recent decades, the share of U.S. economic growth captured by shareholders needs to keep on expanding. Somehow this doesn't seem terribly likely. Thoughts? I agree that this doesn't seem likely to p...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 14, 2019 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: U.S. stocks in free fall
Replies: 12034
Views: 2047363

Re: U.S. stocks in free fall

willthrill81 wrote: Maybe my trend following strategy will be vindicated in the near future! I presume that means that after the move from equities into safe assets in Q4 2018, that you're still in those safe assets. Whether this move will work out or not in the end is still uncertain. Picking equi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: this time it's different
Replies: 92
Views: 10106

Re: this time it's different

SimpleGift wrote: The only sense I can make of it is to invest in a broad diversity of global index companies — then hope for the best. 1+ This is my approach as well, covering all bases, 50 US/50 INTL. Wide diversification seems to me a reasonable response to high levels of future uncertainty. If ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 13, 2019 12:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?
Replies: 61
Views: 3910

Re: Switch AA 10-year to 2-year Treasuries?

VINEVIZ wrote: For one thing, moving to bonds with a duration shorter than your investment horizon increases your interest rate risk. The following quote is from an article in Investopedia on interest rate risk: What is interest rate risk? The interest rate risk, or market risk, refers to the chanc...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 11, 2019 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.
Replies: 249
Views: 21008

Re: Negative Interest Rates in U.S.

A long time ago, Bill Gross, after a long distinguished career of bond market investing success with PIMCO, made some bets in the bond market that and completely missed the continuation of the Treasury bond bull market. His reputation never recovered to its prior status. At the time he also coined t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 11, 2019 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?
Replies: 70
Views: 3548

Re: If you think oil prices will drop where would you invest?

Predicting the future over a given time frame of oil prices or any other commodity price is exceptional difficult. The chance of achieving success in this enterprise based on the theory that electric cars will dominate the auto market and kill demand for oil is very close to zero in my opinion. Ther...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: threshold for paying debt
Replies: 41
Views: 2724

Re: threshold for paying debt

I'm going to spout some old fashioned, boring, totally unsexy financial advice for those who are newer to the investing game. Minimize debt, zero is the goal. Do not borrow money to invest. Avoid leverage in investments unless you have so much money you don't need leverage in which case avoid it any...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 09, 2019 8:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15779

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Most believe that long term bond yields are not directly influenced by FED rate changes but rather by long term expectations for inflation and economic growth. Current 30 year Treasury and LT DM bond yields suggest that the global bond market fears deflation more than inflation and economic stagnati...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 08, 2019 2:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 264
Views: 15779

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

Blueskies123 wrote regarding Vineviz's strong preferences for LT Treasuries: I can only assume you were not an adult during the '70s and early 80's. I remember them well. Inflation-adjusted losses in long term bonds were around 70%. I remember those days quite well. We have not had substantial and ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 07, 2019 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ed Yardeni on market slide
Replies: 19
Views: 3705

Re: Ed Yardeni on market slide

ignition wrote: Well, the correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is negative apparently so maybe it's good news that economic growth is slowing This often quoted statement can be true in comparing growth between two very different countries and their equity performance. Countries that ha...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 07, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing for negative interest rates
Replies: 31
Views: 1752

Re: Investing for negative interest rates

The time to adjust a portfolio for an expected future outcome like severely dropping rates is not when it is well underway and that outcome is priced in which I suspect is mostly the case now. I think it's usually a mistake to make portfolio changes based on the the latest headline or the current ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 07, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 year treasury yield
Replies: 34
Views: 2732

Re: 10 year treasury yield

staistin wrote: The ECB has been engaged aggressively in Q/E since 2005. I believe this is a misprint. The ECB began QE in 2015, not 2005, much later than when our FED started QE which was in 2008. Central banks have for years been pulling out all the stops in monetary policy to simulate DM economi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 05, 2019 9:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Year Treasury Under 2%
Replies: 45
Views: 5698

Re: 10 Year Treasury Under 2%

There is a very high level of uncertainty/fear among investors worldwide at this point. When fear and uncertainty grip investors they flee to the safest port in the storm, US Treasuries, which drives their prices up and their yields down. It is not predictable how low the 10 year can go IMO. Less th...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 05, 2019 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?
Replies: 33
Views: 1635

Re: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?

Fryxell wrote: So we can’t conclude this ETF has negative alpha, as it’s not statistically significant (and we should expect negative alpha to equal the expense ratio, in any event). And if you run a Fama-French 4-factor regression, you get positive, and statistically significant alpha. So if XSLV ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundrise vs. Vanguard REIT ETF
Replies: 20
Views: 5225

Re: Fundrise vs. Vanguard REIT ETF

This is an advertisement disguised as a objective analysis. Personally I have no interest in Fundrise or anything else with a 0.85% expense fee + 0.15% advisor fee. This advertisement is designed to generate business and profits for Fundrise, a sales pitch that aims at less sophisticated investors w...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 05, 2019 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ed Yardeni on market slide
Replies: 19
Views: 3705

Ed Yardeni on market slide

Ed Yardeni is about as close to a permanent bull as as you can find this side of Jeremy Siegel. In this piece he analyzes the current status of world economies, monetary and trade policies, global demographics, and stock markets. His optimism about the market's future seems more muted than usual. Co...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 04, 2019 2:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 66
Views: 10645

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: On his podcast, Meb's now said on at least two separate occasions that while he used to say you have to stick with a strategy that's "different" from the total market for 10 years, he's now saying you should be prepared for 20 years before seeing outsized performance rel...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 04, 2019 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?
Replies: 33
Views: 1635

Re: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?

XSLV has factor loads according to Portfolio Visualizer as follows: Market (Rm-Rf) 0.89, Size (SMB) 0.94, Value (HML-DEV) 0.42, Momentum (MOM) 0.25, Quality (QMJ) 0.59, Low Beta (BAB) 0.51). It has high or moderate positive loadings of all factors including Value, MOM, QUAL, LOW BETA, the 4 major fa...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 02, 2019 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Allan Roth takes on the CFP Board for failure to do their job
Replies: 18
Views: 2143

Re: Allan Roth takes on the CFP Board for failure to do their job

Good for Mr. Roth to have brought this to the public's attention. Even those in the financial industry who wear white hats and claim to be motivated by the protecting the public from financial sharks seem instead to be protecting their own financial/public relations self-interest. I wish I could say...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 01, 2019 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Sudden drop in market P/B!
Replies: 7
Views: 1869

Re: Sudden drop in market P/B!

whodidntante wrote: My guess is that Vanguard's IT department has some executive's cousin in a key position. He/she is, after all, "good with computers." 1+ Got a nice chuckle from this post. Laughing when the issue isn't a big one (like this one) is probably more therapeutic than being frustrated ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 01, 2019 6:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 252
Views: 25488

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

DFSVX was down 2.84% today, so perhaps it's a bit early to rejoice for SCV. Reversion to the mean for SCV should occur at some point, but when remains a question.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 01, 2019 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome
Replies: 120
Views: 23696

Re: Explain why long-term bonds aren't awesome

nisi wrote: negative And while you say that you are not bothered by the fluctuations, the duration is 15 years (compared to 6 for the VanguardTotal Bond Market Index Fund) so you are talking about 2.5X the interest rate risk of Total Bond. And even Total Bond has enough interest risk to be spooking...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 01, 2019 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?
Replies: 33
Views: 1635

Re: Adding momentum to a small cap value portfolio. Does it make sense?

There are arguments both ways on that question. Robert T is a very skilled factor investor IMO and I believe he uses SCV primarily and adds sufficient MTUM to it to zero out the negative MOM of the SCV fund. In effect that diversifies with two very different and often opposed factors and it gets rid...