Search found 1697 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 9:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10139

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

willthrill81 wrote: I can't remember the source, but I recently heard that researchers have estimated that the long decline in interest rates over this period increased bond returns by around 1% over what they would have been had interest rates remained flat. That's certainly a nice boost, but if t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10139

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

CUlater wrote: As you can see, the blue line returns (28% SCV/72% Treasuries) match the red line returns (60/40) at the end of 2017 and exceed the red line returns at almost every previous point, while having nearly the volatility of 5Yr Treasures alone and matching the maximum drawdown of 5Yr Trea...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 12, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need, ability and willingness to take risk
Replies: 64
Views: 5909

Re: Need, ability and willingness to take risk

willthrill81 wrote: Some believe that risk tolerance is rather fixed, mostly determined by one's personality and prior experiences. I think that both of these factors and others certainly impact risk tolerance, but I think that education and a good dose of reality can help dramatically. For instanc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 11, 2018 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?
Replies: 37
Views: 1969

Re: How diversified are you really with cap weighted foreign markets?

I believe that cap weighted total international exposure does offer diversification value to a US portfolio but that the addition of small-mid cap INTL increases diversification and also probably increases expected long term returns. Cap weighted funds slant heavily toward mega-cap and LC. These fir...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jan 10, 2018 5:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4135

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

TrustVectoring wrote: Equity and personal finance risks are related - if your personal finance is such that you're 99.9% certain that you won't need to touch your investment portfolio for the next 30 years, you can afford to take more equity risk. Having been though a few 30 year periods in my life...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive
Replies: 82
Views: 9296

Re: Larry Swedroe: Non-US Valuations Look Attractive

triceratop wrote: Larry has been talking about international valuations and the importance of not being home-biased for a long, long time. I totally agree with Larry on this issue. I further believe that going forward the best opportunities for outsized returns are in INTL and especially EM, better...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 08, 2018 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Zacks Investment Research vs Morningstar
Replies: 4
Views: 335

Re: Zacks Investment Research vs Morningstar

I believe most "investment research" is unreliable. The fact that Zack's and Morningstar have differing opinions on the same fund should tell you something. "Nobody knows nothing" is a rational default position when it comes to investment advice. The market regularly humbles even the best analyst's ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing
Replies: 210
Views: 17594

Re: Memo to those who have won the game: it's time to quit playing

By the numbers I have won the game but most of my portfolio is still in stocks. The underlying assumption here is that bonds have no risk. That is not always true. The two biggest risks for bonds are inflation and longevity risk, finding out in the 4th quarter of the game that you hadn't won it in t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 07, 2018 7:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4135

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

Very interesting post. One more point to add. If you have an equity dominated portfolio, say 90/10, 80/20, 75/25, a case can be made for a very high or even 100% allocation to Treasuries in the bond portfolio. In that case you have considerable equity risk and also considerable upside appreciation p...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap value vs. total market?
Replies: 103
Views: 10139

Re: Small cap value vs. total market?

Just my two cents worth. I believe that SCV will again show outperformance at some point in the future although no one knows when. Human nature has not been entirely repealed. I also believe, however, that the magnitude of the SCV premium when it does finally show up will be significantly less than ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom
Replies: 262
Views: 47307

Re: I'm Calling an Emerging Markets Bottom

25% of my equity portfolio has been in EM, mostly EMV and EMSV, for more than a year. I have overweighted EM relative to its market cap in INTL indexes for years, even increasing exposure as it tanked. Finally, finally, it paid off. What goes down rapidly, persistently, and severely can go up rapidl...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 06, 2018 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries
Replies: 52
Views: 4135

Re: Corporate bonds vs. Treasuries

triceratop wrote: One can determine approximately how much additional risk is there by using treasury and corporate funds of comparable duration and finding an asset mix which behaved similarly. I used Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury/Investment-Grade funds The included graph demonstrates that i...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 05, 2018 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial
Replies: 51
Views: 6138

Re: Larry Swedroe: Patience And Diversification Crucial

Very interesting post. A Baron's article on multi-factor is worth reading. https://www.barrons.com/articles/multifactor-etfs-too-much-of-a-good-thing-1499491795 Some historical perspective in order. When Fama and French first described the small and value factors, factor investing seemed simple. Jus...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hitting The Sell Button
Replies: 211
Views: 21584

Re: Hitting The Sell Button

Great post, nedsaid, with a lot of good input. I don't think it's one size fits all when it comes to how much to take from stocks and put into bonds as a bull market goes on for years. Personally I have been doing two things. First annual rebalancing which moves modest amounts of money from stocks i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 04, 2018 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?
Replies: 77
Views: 6125

Re: Did everyone in the early 80s have their money in CDs?

The smartest thing to do in the early 1980s was to load up on 30 year Treasuries. In 1982, 30 year Treasuires were yielding 14.56%, guaranteed by the US government for 30 years. In severe inflation (which was about 15% at the time) and very high interest rates, going long on bond duration can pay of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors
Replies: 42
Views: 1943

Re: Is Beta a distinct factor or a summation of other factors

Great discussion by some of our most knowledgeable members on both sides of this question.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alternative Investments
Replies: 29
Views: 2054

Re: Alternative Investments

heyyou wrote: Some of the geezers here have seen so many crashes and recoveries that they are no longer intimidated by transient portfolio losses. They view them as intrinsic with portfolio gains, thus the losses are just aggravations, not something to be avoided. I am one of those geezers. Garland...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 01, 2018 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years
Replies: 45
Views: 6114

Re: Buffett wins his bet: S&P500 beats selected hedge funds over last 10 years

azanon wrote: The only thing I can figure as to why a hedge fund representative would have made such a bet was if they were anticipating some sort of decade of recession. Given the price levels we're at now, they should consider renewing the bet for another 10. I disagree. I believe the bet was mad...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 31, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Tax Efficiency Of Long -Short Strategies
Replies: 4
Views: 631

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Tax Efficiency Of Long -Short Strategies

The problem with long short funds is not tax inefficiency but rather the increased costs involved to operate such a strategy. Those costs can be overcome if management knows consistently which stocks are going to appreciate significantly better than the market expects over a given time frame. Conver...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 28, 2017 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10440

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

CU later wrote: Not sure what data you looked at. Actually, SCV has slightly outperformed TSM over the last decade. I compared the results on Morningstar 10 year graphs of DFSVX to Vanguard's VTI. I didn't count the increased DFSVX access fee which should favor DFSVX relative to the real world. I j...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8336

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

grok87 wrote: not to be pedantic, but for the benefit of clarity for others who may be reading, you are saying "Duration risk is something that was rewarded for 35 years SINCE 1982..." right? Right, grok87, thanks for the correction. I'm old and sometimes there's a disconnect between when I mean an...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 28, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10440

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

vesalius wrote: As an aside and because he puts in his well researched 2 cents in the thread above, I personally over the years have found post by Robert T to always be enlightening and free from bias as much as a person is able to do so. 1+ IMO Robert T's posts are always very well researched, sou...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!
Replies: 66
Views: 8336

Re: 30 yr tips yield: 1% to 0.83% over last 2 weeks!

grok87 wrote: For the past 5 days: Long tips= ltpz: down 1.3% Long nominal treasuries= edv down 3.3% That 2% differential is modest relative to what is expected if increasing inflation actually becomes a long term secular trend. Few even consider such a situation, but that doesn't rule it out as a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Intelligent Asset Allocator New Edition?
Replies: 5
Views: 990

Re: The Intelligent Asset Allocator New Edition?

Bernstein's Rational Expectations is IMO an excellent book on investing.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 27, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?
Replies: 114
Views: 10440

Re: What ever happened to the Larry portfolio?

Any bond dominated portfolio is unlikely to perform as well post 2012 as it did on long term backtesting before that which included 3+ decades during which inflation and yields consistently declined by more than 10% each. Long term backtesting is not an adequate tool to define future returns in the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 26, 2017 7:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 153
Views: 24416

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

VMMXX's yield rapidly reflects recent raises in interest rates by the Fed. VMMSX is likely to be yielding over 2% by the end of 2018 if, as expected by most, the Fed raises rates 3 times in 2018. Unlike longer duration bonds, it will not suffer principal loss along in a rising rate environment. Most...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 25, 2017 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do any of you follow Bob Brinker?
Replies: 64
Views: 6199

Re: Do any of you follow Bob Brinker?

I have subscribed to Bob's Market Timer Letter for years and in the main benefited from it. He called the 2000 tech collapse but completely missed the severity of the 2007-9 collapse. Like all who advocate timing the market, he is sometimes right and sometimes wrong. No one gets this timing issue ri...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 23, 2017 3:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 5093

Re: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?

Diversification is one approach. Another approach to possibly achieving the same return with a lower level of risk (if past history is a reliable guide which it isn't always) is to put your money into Wellington. Over the last 3, 5, and 10 years, Wellington has outperformed Life Strategy Conservativ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 23, 2017 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market)"
Replies: 34
Views: 5179

Re: "The Bond Experiment: Return to VBTLX (Vanguard Total Bond Market)"

I don't think this is a dogmatic issue, that you have to fund A rather than fund B. The bond market is very efficient at pricing risk, more efficient IMO than the stock market. For example over the last 5 years, Vanguard's Intermediate Term Treasury Fund has produced an average annual return of 0.97...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 21, 2017 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017
Replies: 13
Views: 1587

Re: Holiday Chart — S&P 500 Price & Earnings, 1990-2017

I certainly agree that corporate tax cuts will be a tailwind instead of a headwind to corporate after tax profits. It will put more dollars in the hands of management to do with as they wish. The hope is that management will decide to take that money and spend it on new plant and equipment plus new ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 21, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin
Replies: 74
Views: 6864

Re: Quite a few people I know in real life that normally don't mess with finances have brought up investing in bitcoin

Swelfie wrote: It is probably the riskiest investment you can make. Bitcoin, of all the cryptocurrencies in particular. If you want to throw in a few play dollars, have fun! But it is gambling now. IMHO, the big risk/reward being in your favor period was closing end of 2015. 1+ These comments come ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Dec 19, 2017 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value
Replies: 91
Views: 7433

Re: Paul Merriman and Small Cap Value

A great deal of money has been lost in the endless search for the perfect portfolio. I plead guilty to this myself. I tilt to SCV, modestly in the US, more substantially in INTL. Unlike Mr. Merriman, whom I respect greatly, I personally do not have sufficient faith and belief in SCV to put all my eg...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 97
Views: 5643

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

in_reality wrote: That's a problem with the long term evidence chart I think. It's looking at factors in isolation. If MOM looks juicy, but implementation in an actual fund results in changing other loadings (or negative alpha) which can offset and counter-act the MOM premium, then are you really s...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 17, 2017 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?
Replies: 52
Views: 5093

Re: Diversification: Is there any way to produce the same returns with less risk?

This is a complicated question. Dollar for dollar bonds decrease equity volatility better than anything else. They also are expected to reduce long term return probably more than over alternate diversifiers. Holding different slices of equity: US, EM, DM, LC, SC, and MC produces modestly more divers...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 16, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is 120 months of expenses in Fixed Income plus 100/0 a viable long term allocation?
Replies: 42
Views: 1798

Re: Is 120 months of expenses in Fixed Income plus 100/0 a viable long term allocation?

Personally, I think 10 times a generous estimate of annual living expenses in fixed income is adequate with the rest 100/0 or 80/20 in equity. This seems to me a rational approach but not the only rational approach. It depends on your emotional makeup. If you get emotionally overwrought when your po...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 15, 2017 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh
Replies: 97
Views: 5643

Re: Factor-Based Investing: The Long-Term Evidence - Dimson & Marsh

Very good article, thanks for posting, matjen. It is IMO an objective analysis, not a sales pitch, and it provides good background information that might benefit both factor and cap-weighted index investors. If you're pressed for time, the concluding remarks starting on page 33 in the PDF version gi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 15, 2017 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017
Replies: 30
Views: 2306

Re: Moods of the U.S. Stock Market, 1990-2017

SimpleGift wrote: The problem is that even the experts whose job it is to predict the market's future earnings-per-share have a terrible track record of forecasting this metric just one year in advance, much less 10 years in the future. Though not totally discounting the rational calculations of fu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 7:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 4098

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

Tanelorn wrote: No down years for decades and a big profit in 2008 and you call that high risk? High return yes, high risk - hardly. We'll have to agree to disagree on that. Perhaps it's just that I'm suspicious by nature. Perhaps it's that I've never seen such consistently fabulous results over su...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 6:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3099

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

nisi wrote: For example, if almost everybody wanted 30% of their holdings to be small-cap value, you would have a problem because small-cap value is only 2% of the market. The market will run out of small-cap value long before everyone could get what they want. In fact, not even 7% of investors' do...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Just not getting it [Stock Picking versus TSM]
Replies: 98
Views: 14209

Re: Just not getting it

namrac wrote: Where am I off? Scratching my head. If you can reliably and consistently pick the stocks that are going to be the big winners in the future and avoid those that are destined to be losers, it is very rational to do so. Many of us who have tried that pick-the-winners approach actually u...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Dec 14, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?
Replies: 30
Views: 3099

Re: How Will Indexers Affect A Downturn---or the functioning of the market in the long-run?

There are some things about investing that are worthy of serious concern. That indexing will ruin the market's ability to function is not one of them IMO. Those that promote such a belief usually have a financial interest in doing so. As others have pointed out, as soon as there exploitable market i...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Dec 13, 2017 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return
Replies: 26
Views: 4098

Re: Jim Simons Medalion fund averages 71.8% annual return

BlueEars wrote: I have seen no information on this other than a results mention in Bloomberg. Unconfirmed and unaudited. Possible baloney. 1+ I simply do not believe that over a 20 year span which included 2 of the most severe bear markets in history, 2000-3 and 2007-9, that anyone can legitimately...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 11, 2017 9:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value
Replies: 20
Views: 2770

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Write Off Value

It's been a rough decade for SCV, but I agree with Larry and Random Walker that at some point, impossible to say when, it will shine again. Persistent long term underperformance makes things cheaper and therefore it may actually improve the expectation (but not guarantee) of improved long term retur...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Dec 11, 2017 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?
Replies: 8
Views: 759

Re: When asset prices are not driven by earnings growth. Correction? Dip?

Corporate profit growth has been tepid by historical bull market standards during the current bull market. Most of the market gains have come from PE multiple expansion. There are reasons why PE might rationally expand: secular low interest rates and low inflation, slow but stable economic and corpo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 9:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018
Replies: 33
Views: 3405

Re: Vanguard economic and market outlook for 2018

Predicting the future of financial markets has often produced more laughs than accuracy when viewed in retrospect, no matter who's doing it. Many experts have been humbled. Having said that, I tend to agree with Vanguard's basic themes about elevated risk, more volatility, and lower returns in 2018 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Current Research On Dividend Studies
Replies: 11
Views: 1243

Re: Current Research On Dividend Studies

First of all, the returns of the quintiles are nominal not real. The comparison chooses to start in 1980 when inflation was more than 13%. Dividends at that time for the S&P 500 averaged more than 4%, more than 5% in 1981, which looks pretty good on the graph, but in fact those yields were dwarfed a...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Dec 10, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?
Replies: 45
Views: 3016

Re: What mix of intermediate and short term bonds?

BlueEars wrote: Since I am in the spending phase (retired) some ST bonds make sense to me. I have recently increased the ratio of ST to IT bonds. Wondering what others think about this issue and what ratio the ST to IT to hold. I also am in the retired spending phase and the very same question occu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 09, 2017 6:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years
Replies: 44
Views: 3256

Re: 2000-09 worst decade for large cap stocks in 109 years

Thanks for posting this, Robert T, it makes a critical point. The 2000 - 2009 period demonstrates that significant diversification may be achieved simply by using different slices of equity assets. US LC index had very different returns from EM or even a well-run US SCV fund. Of course bonds provide...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Dec 09, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?
Replies: 32
Views: 3017

Re: Why Are So Many Companies Announcing Share Buyback?

The good news is that it's good for shareholders. It tends to improve PE ratios if the purchased shares are retired (good for both management stock options and shareholders) and also is a way to directly give money to shareholders in a more tax efficient way than dividends. There is also bad news. M...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too
Replies: 21
Views: 1768

Re: AQR/Asness - You Can Have Your Momentum Factor and Eat it Too

In response to my post about Primecap Fund, Ketawa wrote: With only 130 stocks in large or mid caps, I'm not sure I would be convinced that the managers of the fund are on to something that has not shown up in research, or they simply had a lucky outcome I agree. Primecap's success has been consist...