Search found 1924 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 20, 2018 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?
Replies: 40
Views: 1777

Re: Why should bond duration = investment horizon?

asif408 wrote: The more compelling argument for short-term bonds and bond funds is that the difference in yields between T-bills and 30 year bonds is around 1%. 4 years ago that difference was 4%. So if you believe the yield represents a good approximation of what you will receive from the bond or ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Corporate debt bubble?
Replies: 7
Views: 1047

Re: Corporate debt bubble?

The problem with high levels of corporate debt won't manifest itself until we have a recession with a substantial drop in corporate profit streams. Likely in a recession investment grade corporate debt will suffer only modest defaults. High yield debt (junk bonds) have done quite well for a long tim...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 19, 2018 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”
Replies: 73
Views: 3726

Re: “Majority of working-age Americans have no retirement savings”

I believe it is likely that there will be a retirement/long term care/medical care for elderly crisis or problem in the US and in all DMs which will manifest itself in the near future if not already. People talk about the elderly living on SS and meager savings. Try that if you're demented, severely...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 02, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206120

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

matjen wrote: Nah, we used to get lots of posts by people comparing it to only the S&P or to things like Sequoia and claiming it was underperforming. People like me would say that’s nuts. If memory serves me correctly, we have a period where value is down and momentum has not been quite as good as ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 31, 2018 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts
Replies: 26
Views: 3007

Re: Early retirement and withdrawal strategy for retirement accounts

A few pieces of advice from one who retired 21 years ago at age 50 and still going strong. A lot of this is tax planning because taxes over a long time frame take a big bite. 1) Get rid of all debt including mortgages. If you currently have an expensive home and a mortgage, sell the house and take t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is this ETF safe from liquidation? RZV SCV fund
Replies: 6
Views: 550

Re: Is this ETF safe from liquidation? RZV SCV fund

There's a reason why RZV has such low assets. In spite of the fact that it's a deep value micro-cap fund and therefore outperformance is expected, since it's inception more than 12 years ago it has consistently and substantially underperformed VB, VTI, and Vanguard's S&P 500 fund. This in spite of i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 30, 2018 6:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund
Replies: 1435
Views: 206120

Re: QSPIX - thoughts on interesting fund

QSPIX uses sophisticated strategies/leverage, both long and short positions, using multiple asset classes. Such a fund is expected to sometimes depart substantially from market beta as it has in this case. That departure can be in both directions, up or down. Taking a position in this fund implies t...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VMVFX & low volatility performance
Replies: 4
Views: 470

Re: VMVFX & low volatility performance

I believe that VMVFX is a well managed active fund for those who wish a low cost global low volatility approach to investing. How it will perform in the future, like everything else in investing, is not accurately predictable beforehand except to say that it is expected be less volatile both on upsi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?
Replies: 70
Views: 4632

Re: Any metrics that say US Stocks are *NOT* expensive?

MotoTrojan wrote: Forward S&P500 price/earnings look great. Forward earnings estimates are notoriously inaccurate and systematically overoptimistic. The analysts who create them are in the business of selling stocks and they tend to be quite optimistic about the benefits of what they're selling as ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 9:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13264

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

willthrill81 wrote: If you are guaranteed 3.5% and have full liquidity, that's certainly a better option than TBM these days, which is projected to return its yield, about 2.6%, over the next decade. Even if TBM had a slightly higher yield than 3.5%, the stable value fund might be a better option b...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 27, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13264

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

actx wrote: there is an option they provide for retirement that is a fund that returns 3.5% per year. It is "guaranteed" as far as that goes but during 2008/2009 . .3.5%. During 2000-2002. . .3.5%. For the last 35 years it has been avail it returns 3.5%. The problem with this is that it does not ta...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where's the Inflation Hedge for Short-Term TIPS?
Replies: 79
Views: 4496

Re: Where's the Inflation Hedge for Short-Term TIPS?

PriceOfFreedom wrote: In fact, would it be generally correct to assume the real total yield of VTAPX over the next five years would be approximately: It would not be correct to accurately predict what the real total yield of VTAPX will be over the next 5 years or for that matter any other bond fund...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 26, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns
Replies: 153
Views: 13264

Re: 2000-2018 retirement - sequence of returns

Great post, Homer, thanks. I think one very important point to be made in addition to stock/bond mix is the enormous role that luck plays when it comes to picking the date to start retirement The 2000 - 2018 retirement started with the collapse of the tech bubble 2000 - 2003 and included the worst b...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need
Replies: 188
Views: 19912

Re: Treasury Bonds are the Only Bonds You Need

I do not believe in hard and fast rules that everybody must follow constantly for their bond portfolios. I believe instead in some degree of flexibility in bond allocation based on changes in personal circumstances and/or in the circumstances of the bond market. For example, in 2011, 30 yr. TIPS wer...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2018 4:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 3973

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

I am not a fan of CDs especially in the current environment. Bond funds re-invest dividends which CDs do not. Bond funds are liquid if and when you either need money or find a compelling investment option. CDs lack this liquidity completely or impose a financial penalty for early withdrawal. If inte...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 24, 2018 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds
Replies: 46
Views: 3973

Re: Larry Swedroe: TIPS Versus Nominal Bonds

Good article. Thanks for posting, Random Walker.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 40
Views: 4860

Re: 30 yr tips auction: june 21: 1.0% yield?

Vanguard's ST TIPS Fund with an average duration of 2.8 years, now yields 0.86% plus inflation adjustment, only 0.02% less than the 30 TIPS. I fail to see the attraction of taking on duration risk in view of these numbers.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 22, 2018 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists, But Not Enough
Replies: 6
Views: 773

Re: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists, But Not Enough

Vanguard's Primecap Fund, VPMCX, is the best example that I know of that demonstrates long term consistent skill at outperformance. Since 11/1/1984 when it started more than 32 years ago it has averaged annual returns of 19.94%. At that rate your money more than doubles every 4 years on average. It ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 209
Views: 31943

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

Leverage works great as long as you know beforehand what the market is going to do over a given time frame. The problem is that no one knows this in a consistent and reliable manner. Other problems include increased costs and the ability, if the tide goes against you in a big way, to lose more than ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 21, 2018 1:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!
Replies: 1043
Views: 80037

Re: It's not enough to mumble "Stay the Course"... INT'L Investing has been a disaster!

wesgreen wrote: ↑Tue Aug 21, 2018 12:51 pm I can see Vanguard heading for a world of pain from angry investors some day if Intl. doesn't "revert to the mean" in a few years. Just my 2 cents worth. If international does not revert to the mean, it is not Vanguard's fault. Vanguard gives us historical...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"
Replies: 52
Views: 5424

Re: "75 Must Know Statistics About Long-Term Care: 2018 Edition"

Thanks for posting, Taylor. This is indeed one of the thorniest problems in financial planning for seniors. Having the statistics and information helps us to make these decisions properly.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 20, 2018 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10351

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

Bacchus01 wrote: It is a fallacy that this is a 9 year bull market. So quickly people forget 2015/2016. The general definition for the end of a bull market is a 20% decline in market value which also defines the start of a bear market. That did not occur in 2015/2016. A decline of 10% - 20% defines ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 19, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns
Replies: 91
Views: 10351

Re: Vanguard predicts 10 year equity returns

I read the entire article and thought it was good. Vanguard's predictions of 10 yr. returns are much lower than either the last decade's or long term historical averages. I don't believe any predictions by anyone are rock solid but as predictions go, Vanguard's seem to me as reasonable as anyone's f...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 3:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 33
Views: 2975

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

I agree with Siamond that a 30/70 portfolio is extremely conservative for someone about 40 regardless of which equity assets you choose for the 30%. Of course if you're already very rich and don't need significant portfolio growth over decades, you can do anything you want and it will work. If you'r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 18, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?
Replies: 33
Views: 2975

Re: Massive small cap tilt with low equity AA - anybody do this?

vineviz wrote: The S&P 600 based funds (IJS, SLYV, VIOV) are unquestionably more focused on smaller stocks and deeper value stocks than VBR. So is PXSV, Invesco Russell 2000 Pure Value ETF, which is a deep exposure SCV fund, basically micro-cap deep value with much heavier loads to both value and s...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return
Replies: 21
Views: 2107

Re: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return

WanderingDoc wrote: A bank won't lend 100% of the purchase price, $25M, at a 4-6% interest rate. The sponsor is actually being smart and prudent by only utilizing a 60-70% LTV. So your entire sarcastic post makes no sense. 60% LTV? The original post by aqan states that these properties are being pur...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25057

Re: Invest in Tesla?

If you want to invest a small percentage of your portfolio in Musk/Tesla, willing to accept its high risk/high reward profile, go right ahead and do so. Like Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, it may turn into something quite valuable in a decade or two. On the other hand it could easily go to zero, comp...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 16, 2018 12:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return
Replies: 21
Views: 2107

Re: NRIA.NET - Real Estate Private Placement - 16% return

16% -18% per year over 5 years sounds very good indeed. I'm wondering why NIRA is offering this incredible deal and doesn't just borrow money at 4% - 6% and take all this great action themselves. That would provide a 12% to 14% return per year without risking a cent of their own money. Perhaps NIRA ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 15, 2018 12:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Case for Multifactor Funds
Replies: 17
Views: 1274

Re: The Case for Multifactor Funds

Direct quote from the same article "The Case for Mulitfactor Funds": Expectations might matter most. These funds are no magic elixir. Many have limited track records. No matter how sensible their process may seem, nor how low their fees, there’s no guarantee they will deliver better risk-adjusted r...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 181
Views: 24315

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

Jeff Albertson wrote: AQR’s first dedicated fixed-income offering, a fund of American high-yield (that is, junk-rated) bonds, was launched in mid-2016. It outperformed the benchmark index by 2.1 percentage points in its first year, and 2.6 points in its second. Wait until a recession hits and see w...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 10, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt
Replies: 18
Views: 3633

Re: NYT: The Big, Dangerous Bubble in Corporate Debt

I agree that there is presently risk in higher yielding bond instruments (junk, cov-lite, P2P, student loans, sub-prime car loans, etc.,) and to a less extent in the investment grade corporate bond segment. Yield spreads between these less secure credit instruments and Treasuries contracted during Q...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 9:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?
Replies: 94
Views: 4668

Re: If it were March, 2000, would you still allocate 50% to Stocks?

I was 100% in stocks in 2000 and almost all of that was in booming tech stocks. It was quite unpleasant to put it mildly and I was retired at the time without an income stream. Pain like that teaches lessons that you don't forget. I learned that balanced portfolios aren't just for sissies especially...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming
Replies: 42
Views: 6740

Re: Jamie Dimon: Higher rates are coming

stormbringer wrote: This sort of reminds me of 2009, when Warren Buffett warned that inflation was coming due to all the stimulus. Even for the brightest minds, these things can be difficult to predict. What are us mere mortals to do? Agree but the full story of the QE stimulus is not yet written y...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 08, 2018 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25057

Re: Invest in Tesla?

matjen wrote: I'm trying to figure out why the price didn't go right up to $420 or at least significantly closer. The only conclusion is that the market is not convinced that much of what Musk says/tweets is truthful. Some short sellers panicked yesterday but I agree that the market as a whole is s...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 07, 2018 5:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Invest in Tesla?
Replies: 330
Views: 25057

Re: Invest in Tesla?

One reason, I suspect, for the Musk announcement was to produce a short squeeze and drive up Tesla's sagging price. Tesla is the most heavily shorted stock in history, I believe, and currently hedge funds have huge short positions. By announcing a potential $420/share private purchase with financing...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 06, 2018 4:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund
Replies: 3
Views: 305

Thoughts on XSOE EM index fund

XSOE avoids companies in which the state has more than 20% ownership which is quite common in EM. The theory is that state-owned-enterprises serve two masters, political concerns as well as profits for shareholders. State-owned-enterprises are typically large/mega cap companies concentrated in segme...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2018 7:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1119

Re: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

I don't know whether Mr. Reckenthaler's numbers are accurate or not. He is talking about the top 1% of market cap stocks and says that is 67 stocks which he equally weights. That implies that the market itself must include 6,700 stocks and the lower 99% collectively produced no positive return at al...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 04, 2018 12:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?
Replies: 11
Views: 1119

Biggest Companies Deserve to be Best?

Direct quote from John Reckenthaler's article on Morningstar website: "The Biggest Companies Deserve to Be Best" Tuesday's column detailed how, in recent years, blue chips have dominated. An investor in August 2013 who sorted all publicly traded firms by their market caps from largest to smallest, s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELOC
Replies: 20
Views: 1420

Re: HELOC

Whether it's a good idea or not depends on your circumstances and the macroeconomic picture. When I was a lot younger and even more foolish than now, I had a great job and took on a great deal of debt, home mortgages and huge stock purchases on the margin. In my case it worked beautifully in the 199...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Aug 03, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: STIP (Short Term TIP) yield vs TIP
Replies: 15
Views: 1155

Re: STIP (Short Term TIP) yield vs TIP

Yield curves are flattening in all bonds, most so at present in TIPS. Duration risk is completely unrewarded at present in the TIPS market. Both ST and IT/LT TIPS in theory have no inflation risk, although increase in term risk implies that IT/LT TIPS will likely have greater variability in principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 6:33 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion
Replies: 20
Views: 2196

Re: Respect the Magical Power of Mean Reversion

The timing and degree of mean reversion cannot be accurately predicted beforehand. After it has occurred some can look at the charts and say that this market action was inevitable at this point. So it was in the tech boom and collapse of 2000. Most market mavens during the tech boom argued that "Thi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2644

Re: Annuity vs investment

So an annuity is 6% return when you are 65, right? Return? It's not really a return on investment but rather a return of your investment. It's giving you 6% of your own premium payment back annually for the first 16 and 2/3 years. Even if the issuing company makes nothing at all on your million dol...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth
Replies: 5
Views: 1359

Re: 4 reasons we overcomplicate investing - Allan Roth

Hats off to Allan Roth who tells the simple unvarnished truth without trying to sell you anything. Most of us, including me, are guilty of overcomplicating investing. We tend not to admit that we don't know with certainty whether increased complexity is going to produce the desired results. Simplici...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 02, 2018 2:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Annuity vs investment
Replies: 40
Views: 2644

Re: Annuity vs investment

I admit up front that I'm not objective about annuities. I believe investors who have balanced portfolios aligned to their risk tolerance will achieve better long term returns at lower cost with more flexibility than those who choose annuities for a large percentage of their assets. The annuity mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 01, 2018 9:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs. Growth & Taxes
Replies: 15
Views: 1052

Re: Value vs. Growth & Taxes

I don't know when the growth/value tide will turn again and value will once again have its day. Historically the two styles alternate in outperformance over time spans measured in years, not months. I believe there have been periods as long as 15 years historically in which value underperformed. Cur...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jul 27, 2018 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)
Replies: 120
Views: 11156

Re: Facebook stock in freefall! (20% drop in 1-day)

willthrill81 wrote: I'm surprised people are downing Facebook. Their net income was $20.2 billion last year, more than triple what it was in 2015. Amazon's net income last year was just $4.1 billion, yet their market cap is 72% higher than Facebook's. 1+ Facebook has real and growing profits and co...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 26, 2018 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: China Hustle Movie
Replies: 35
Views: 5071

Re: China Hustle Movie

I believe that it is entirely clear that there are greater risks to investing in China or EM in general than in DM and especially in the US which has for decades offered for the best equity risk/reward tradeoff in the world IMO. That fact is however reflected in the relative valuation differences be...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 6:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"
Replies: 6
Views: 514

Re: "Are Economic Predictions Every Useful?"

Greg in Idaho wrote: I have always been amazed, particularly in academic circles, what economists get away with...often along the lines of "according to these assumptions, some of which we know to be false, a number of others are our best guesses, and all of which leave out a number of factors that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jul 25, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker
Replies: 33
Views: 4199

Re: "Money Talk" Radio Program with Bob Brinker

I used to listen to Money Talk and I have subscribed to Bob's Newsletter for years. I believe that overall his advice and analysis is good. Many talk about his infamous QQQ call which turned out to be wrong and therefore discount all his advice. The fact is that he called correctly the tech collapse...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jul 24, 2018 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?
Replies: 13
Views: 1405

Re: What is meaning of identical yield on 5yr and 10yr TIPS ?

Based on the difference between Treasury yields and TIPS yields there seems to be a consistent expectation of inflation over the next 5, 10, and even 30 years at slightly more than 2%. Little expected change in inflation which remains low and stable by long term historical standards for 5, 10, or 30...