Search found 1429 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 1972

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

Two quotes from Arnott's article are IMO likely true: We find that the performance of the market, value, and momentum factors in live portfolios is sharply lower than their performance in theoretical model portfolios. This may be contributing to many of the new live factor strategies faring as poorl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 24
Views: 1850

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Just my 2 cents worth. I believe this portfolio to be excessively conservative (a person at retirement should have 80% of assets in TIPS plus LMP) for most because given the size of the portfolios of most retirees, a TIPS plus LMP will not provide them with sufficient income to cover retirement expe...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations
Replies: 11
Views: 976

Re: Siegel v. Shiller on Equity Valuations

I think Larry and nedsaid are on target on this question. Lower but positive intermediate/long term returns but not a severe bear market on the horizon such as what follows the popping of a bubble.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 1972

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

For those who wish to pursue factor investing approaches I agree with grap0013 that the RAFI Fundamental Index Strategy is a reasonable approach. In effect it chooses stocks that are on sale but have strong underlying fundamentals, a combo of VAL plus QUAL. The combination of VAL plus QUAL is basica...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: PEG Ratio
Replies: 14
Views: 905

Re: PEG Ratio

The problems is that it is very difficult to predict expected future earnings which on average have historically been about 10% too optimistic with a wide range of variability. It is even more difficult to predict what future earrings growth will be. A lot can change in 12 months particularly in hot...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 7484

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

VictoriaF wrote: This is true about individual TIPS. What about TIPS funds and ETFs such as LTPZ? Victoria I refer you to the Vanguard paper that discusses LT versus ST TIPS. https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/s328.pdf Long term TIPS are a less effective inflation hedge and more volatile in principa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 24, 2017 12:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?
Replies: 27
Views: 999

Re: Are risk factors just ways to take on additional risk?

nisi wrote; In short, what happens as factor-based investing gets increasingly popular? Answer: it becomes diminishingly effective. What happens as cap-weighted total-market indexing gets increasingly popular? Answer: nothing. It is the only strategy that cannot get "crowded" or "ove...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2419

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting posts. I enjoyed in particular the article cited in chuffy's post, "Does Shiller-PE Work in Emerging Markets?" Sometimes as someone wrote, "the more you know, the less you know." It appears that nothing in the way of predators of future returns gives iron clad gu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 23, 2017 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Case against long-term TIPS
Replies: 47
Views: 7484

Re: Case against long-term TIPS

Long term TIPS offer a guaranteed positive real return over a long time frame, hence "bullet proof." The price you pay for being "bullet proof" is that its principal value is volatile and fully subject to duration risk, so that if you are forced to sell them before maturity you c...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth
Replies: 36
Views: 2419

Re: Puzzle for you: Stocks returns vs. Economic Growth

Very interesting. I guess the question is can we use these results from the last 24 years as a basis for projecting the future for the next 24 years in terms of market returns for USA, China,and India. Many analysts now believe that, based on valuations, demographics, increasing middle class populat...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 21, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing
Replies: 13
Views: 738

Re: Value vs Equal vs Other Weighing

mikeguima wrote: ALL investible assets right now (which according to the CAPM is actually the real efficient risky portfolio, not the SP500, not a world index of stocks, therefore, theoretically, it should be the best portfolio available), you would have a portfolio which is roughly 40% stocks, 55%...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 20, 2017 12:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???
Replies: 15
Views: 3595

Re: Anyone catching the CNBC movie Madoff: from Millions to Billions???

Saw it, actually quite engrossing. It was amazingly easy for a sociopath conman to hoodwink some some of the richest, most famous and supposedly brightest people in America. It also showed how totally inept regulators were. Based on a tip they actually investigated Madoff's multi-billion dollar equi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 8:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1746

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

nedsaid wrote: Garland, one possible answer is to shift some funds from US Stocks to International Stocks were valuations are more reasonable. Emerging Markets have looked particularly cheap. I have been doing some very modest shifts in my own portfolio. I'm with you on that one, nedsaid, and have ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 8:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo
Replies: 24
Views: 2350

Re: Larry Swedroe: Problems With The Factor Zoo

I would like to thank Random Walker for posting Larry's articles consistently. I always find them to be educational and I suspect most Forum members do as well. I miss Larry's postings but fully understand why as a busy professional he decided to spend his time and effort elsewhere. At least thanks ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 19, 2017 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"
Replies: 39
Views: 4554

Re: "Why Value Stocks Have Disappointed"

Interesting article. I don't fully agree with Grantham about the demise of value due to increasing corporate profitability but clearly the last decade has tested the mettle of SCV investors and also MOM investors who got killed in the 2009-10 recovery if they were long/short MOM. Personally I believ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1746

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

alex_666 wrote about using trailing versus estimated PEs as predictors of future performance: You have a choice. One option is to use backwards looking stale values. This has low to no predictive value. The other option is forward looking which gives decent predictive value. Actually Joachim Clemen...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 12:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book
Replies: 27
Views: 5479

Re: "the Truth About Your Future" - Ric Edelman's new book

nisi wrote: Haven't read the book but the very phrase "exponential technologies" has my BS detectors pinging left, right, and center. (Anyone remember "Future Shock?") What are they supposed to be? A quick Google turns up c--p like this: 1+ My BS detectors were also pinging like...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 12:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1746

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Forward earnings estimates are created by analysts who profit from sales of stocks and therefore they always tend to overstate what reality turns out to be. PE ratios can also be manipulated by accounting gimmicks to make them appear to be reasonable when in fact they aren't. The whole question of E...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 18, 2017 11:45 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find
Replies: 6
Views: 1203

Re: Larry Swedroe: Skill Exists But It's Hard To Find

staythecourse wrote: It is NOT as important to identify those with skill in retrospect, but be able to find those with skill in ADVANCE on a dollar weighted return net fees, transaction costs, and taxes. I have not found ANYONE who has been able to identify the above in retrospect with any degree f...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 17, 2017 4:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme
Replies: 27
Views: 1746

Re: Small cap growth index P.E Ratio extreme

Jo Money wrote; Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index Fund As of December 31, 2006 P/E 27.6x P/B 3.5x Yield 0.4% As of December 31, 2016 P/E 47.7x P/B 3.4x Yield 1.0% Actually I just the Vanguard website and its SCG index has a PE of 121.2 and a PB of 3.3. The SCV index has a PE of 48.6 and a PB of 1.9. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 15, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 19443

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

frankmorris wrote: Hoping either this forum, or the books, will give me guidance on how much choice I have in the matter. You're in an enviable position, Frank, with considerable personal assets and a strong desire to learn the ins and outs of investing success. The forum is a great source as are n...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 8:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!
Replies: 164
Views: 19443

Re: Larry Swedroe's New Book is Available Now!

As for how to handle considerable assets in a personal taxable account, I'll add my 2 cents worth. I have a fair amount of assets in my personal taxable account and this is my strategy, a very simple one and as time goes by simplicity looks more and more beautiful to me. I have only 2 assets in the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 14, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 2937

Re: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]

frankmorris wrote: Thanks for your comments. I've seen comments about expecting lower returns in the near future, but haven't quite understood those predictions - especially in light of common wisdom on this forum that no one can predict the future. How have you come to the conclusion that the futu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 4:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Home Country Bias...makes sense?
Replies: 235
Views: 8248

Re: Home Country Bias...makes sense?

I believe it's a matter of personal preference, home county bias. Clearly US valuations are generous relative to INTL and especially EM. There are, as some have pointed out, reasons why US valuations should be higher. A cap weighted US dominated portfolio has outperformed a cap weighted INTL portfol...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 13, 2017 1:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"
Replies: 37
Views: 3311

Re: "The long run is only longer than the short run, not safer"

In the really long run, we're all dead. Although it is true that in the long run stocks have a wider dispersion of outcomes that bonds, that doesn't keep me from making rational assumptions about portfolio construction. It is entirely easonable to expect stocks to outperform bonds in the long run. I...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 12, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott [buy emerging market equities vs. US stocks]
Replies: 40
Views: 2937

Re: Rob Arnott

I tend to agree with Arnott's thesis that US equities are vulnerable to underperformance relative to INTL going forward. There are significant valuation differences in these markets especially with EM but even with DM. On the other hand there is also increased perceived risk in INTL markets. The que...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist
Replies: 53
Views: 5225

Re: WSJ: Most market anomalies academics have identified don’t exist

I'm with grok87 on this one. I believe the MOM premium is very difficult to harvest after costs and most who try will fail. Long/short MOM as grok87 has pointed out tends to suffer massive losses, the kind that takes long years to recover from, in the recoveries following major market collapses. Hug...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age
Replies: 25
Views: 3502

Re: Larry Swedroe on Challenges Of Managing Finances As We Age

Excellent article as one would expect from Larry. Brings up some great points. At some point in a long lifespan it likely is appropriate to have a trusted financial advisor to prevent poor financial judgements. The problem is that as we lose cognition we may not be able to identify exactly when gett...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 11, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit
Replies: 27
Views: 2800

Re: Buffet - The Wrath of Ebit

EBITDA is but one example of a generalized phenomenon. The financial industry derives its profits from sales of stocks, bonds, mutual funds, efts, etc.. Ways to put lipstick on a corporate pig's earnings or its future prospects are therefore sought after and, when found, heavily promoted. This is pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 03, 2017 10:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 60
Views: 5518

Re: Larry Swedroe Article On Enhancing Momentum Strategies

Larry wrote: AQR Capital Management also uses idiosyncratic momentum as part of its overall momentum strategies. (Full disclosure: My firm, Buckingham Strategic Wealth, recommends AQR funds in constructing client portfolios.) As usual for Larry, a very well researched and thoughtful article that ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 02, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Road Less Traveled" by John Bogle
Replies: 31
Views: 3991

Re: "The Road Less Traveled" by John Bogle

Bogle is a great man who spent his time and talent improving the lot of ordinary investors with the neglected simple truth of arithmetic. Neglected because it did not server the financial interest of the financial industry. He singlehandedly wrought a change that in time has drastically changed the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 01, 2017 8:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Arnott tells investors: You're doing it wrong
Replies: 8
Views: 2260

Re: Arnott tells investors: You're doing it wrong

pkcrafter wrote: A lot of hand-wringing by Arnott, while Asness dismisses him with a wave if the hand. Time wil tell in this battle of the factor titans. Personally I believe that MOM is robust and impressive on backtesting but not harvestable for investors net of fees except in the long only LC sp...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 23, 2017 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"
Replies: 21
Views: 2738

Re: "Commodities in Your Portfolio? 'Hogwash...'"

One quote in particular from the article posted by nisi caught my attention. Mr. Harvey of Duke says that more than half of all research pumped out by academics and analysts is likely "false." Mine enough data and you can find a result that backs up your idea. This does not say that all re...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 22, 2017 10:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5314

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

Random Walker wrote: So when thinking in terms of finite specific single time periods, doesn't it make sense to diversify across as many factors as possible? In fact, I think one can make the argument that the shorter the time period, the more important it may be to diversify across potential sourc...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 22, 2017 3:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5314

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

nedsaid wrote: Buy good stuff and keep it. I like to own things because of their intrinsic value and not so much for they might hedge against unpredictable human nature and behavior. I want to own something because it is valuable and will increase in value over time and not because of what I think ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 20, 2017 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe says "Goodbye."
Replies: 336
Views: 36672

Re: Larry Swedroe says "Goodby."

Don't know if Larry will ever read this but just in case, I'd like to express my thanks to him for his insightful posts, for educating us on the latest factor research among other things, for giving us plenty of free and sound advice, and for spending a great deal of time from a busy professional sc...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 19, 2017 12:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)
Replies: 66
Views: 5314

Re: What's Wrong With AQR? (Managed Futures)

It's all a matter of personal preference, but as for me I have absolutely no interest in purchasing a complex alternate investment product with an annual fee of 1.2% whose goal is largely diversification, to zig when your equity portfolio zags. I prefer things that do not involve complex and expensi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 18, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...
Replies: 27
Views: 3498

Re: Janus Unconstrained, almost three years in...

I get tired of people beating up on Bill Gross. He speaks his mind at all times and, like the rest of us, is sometimes wrong. His long term record is however very good indeed. I don't always agree with his comments but I always find his point of view interesting. I believe that he has been going thr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 17, 2017 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?
Replies: 56
Views: 4738

Re: Investors backing off their equity AA primarily due to 8-year bull market?

I believe that rebalancing back to your bond/stock asset allocation model is appropriate if you're feeling nervous about too much equity after a long bull market run. I do not believe equities are in bubble territory currently and don't see any compelling reason to change your long term balance betw...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 14, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?
Replies: 178
Views: 22902

Re: What rate of return do you use when planning for retirement?

Talking real inflation adjusted returns now and like everyone else's mine are merely guesses: US equity 3%- 4%, DM equity 4+%, EM equity 5%+, SCV premium after costs in US 0 -1%, 1% - 2+% in INTL for the next decade or so. Guesses going forward for a decade are notoriously unreliable and I wouldn't ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 12, 2017 9:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy
Replies: 11
Views: 1974

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy

IMO this is an example of 2 very intelligent and knowledgeable oversized egos sparring over a single throne on the Mount Olympus of factor investing products, a throne that only seats one. There is some meat to this argument--how pervasive is data mining in factor research and its products--but the ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 12, 2017 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”
Replies: 21
Views: 2380

Re: Future Return - Siegel vs “new normal”

Good article, thanks for posting. States the question well but doesn't offer the answer. Some Bogleheads believe we're in the "new normal" with lower expected future market returns. Others believe that we're still in a soft patch of the old normal and that the market is due for robust expe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8059

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

nedsaid wrote: I guess it finally happened, the forum ran off one of our best contributors and we will be much poorer for it. There is a line here and it got crossed, that is when people are accused of being here for ulterior motives. It is okay to hold and express contrary views and to show a heal...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 09, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy
Replies: 11
Views: 1974

Re: Lies, Damn Lies and Financial Statistics by Coy

I think this is an excellent article. Academics get promoted for publishing a large volume of low quality papers rather than a low volume of higher quality papers in the academic literature. A CV with a hundred publications moves up the ladder in academia, often regardless of their quality because e...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 06, 2017 5:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8059

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Once again I'll preface my remarks with the fact that I don't know enough about re-insurace as per Larry's suggestion to form an educated opinion. In general however the theory seems to be that re-insurance risk is for rare events but when it occurs its likely associated with a devastating event. He...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 06, 2017 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 144
Views: 13969

Re: Social Security for Millennials

Don't want to be a bummer but I feel I must expand the topic not just for SS for millennials but to the bigger picture of retirement worldwide in developed economies. Retirement arithmetic has dramatically changed due to a very difficult combination of factors. 50 years ago a man without any special...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency
Replies: 119
Views: 8059

Re: Alts:new sources of risk/return improve portfolio efficiency

Personally I don't know enough about re-insurance to develop an intelligent opinion. Larry makes a convincing case for it. On the other hand, Warren Buffett, who has invested in this area for quite some time, feels that the re-insurance sector's best days are behind it, that the space is now getting...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Preparing For The Next Bear Market"
Replies: 21
Views: 3942

Re: "Preparing For The Next Bear Market"

Fallible wrote: As Carlson says, "...we should prepare for a downturn before it occurs, not after it's already underway." And that preparation actually begins when setting an asset allocation because that's when we need to ask ourselves how much we can afford to lose in a downturn. 1+ I r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 01, 2017 12:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard 2017 outlook
Replies: 4
Views: 935

Re: Vanguard 2017 outlook

vangaurd fan 1367 wrote: "nominal growth" ? Does that include any inflation or is that just 5 percent only, without any consideration for inflation? Nominal includes inflation. To get real inflation adjusted returns, the kind that really matter when it comes to meeting future expenses, yo...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.
Replies: 71
Views: 5162

Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

When giving a speech to the House of Commons in 1947, Churchill actually said this: Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government exce...

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