Search found 1477 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy
Replies: 15
Views: 2572

Re: Retirement Withdrawal Sequence/Strategy

I've been retired for 20 years and have consistently kept sufficient cash/short term high quality bonds in my taxable account to cover living expenses for at least a couple of years. This is done to prevent the cardinal sin of selling equity into weakness during market collapses in order to provide ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs buybacks
Replies: 60
Views: 2517

Re: Dividends vs buybacks

nedsaid wrote: One point I want to bring up on the dividends vs buybacks discussion is that US corporate management is fixated on maximizing shareholder value and thus the focus of management is holding up the stock price. It seems to be more about the stock price than the underlying business. Thus...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jul 24, 2017 11:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?
Replies: 53
Views: 4492

Re: Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?

Do you find financial advisors to be all that bright?


No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jul 23, 2017 8:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?
Replies: 16
Views: 1484

Re: How leveraged should your US market investments have been?

It is sufficiently difficult for most of us to hold on with a significant allocation to unhedged equity during a severe market downturn. When we talk about leveraging up 2X or 3X there are very few indeed who can maintain their nerve during a collapse like 2008-9, unless of course they have a large ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 22, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015
Replies: 12
Views: 959

Re: Global Growth vs. Stock Returns, 1970-2015

Simplegift wrote: Thus I’m still skeptical that we can have high stock returns in a low-growth world. 1+ Yet another great post, Todd, about the relationship between macroeconomics and markets. Thanks for posting such a thoughtful piece. I agree with your skepticism that in a low global growth worl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jul 20, 2017 7:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cash out refinance residence to invest?
Replies: 11
Views: 861

Re: Cash out refinance residence to invest?

WarChest wrote regarding cash out refinance to invest: It depends on so many things. I'm all for not really market timing regular contributions, etc. But with something like this I would say only do it after you've seen a really crummy market run. Total stock is up something like 14.5%/year over pa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 9:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2260

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

nedsaid wrote: I just checked the US Treasury 30 year bond and it yields 2.836%. Amazingly low. The US Treasury 10 year yield is now 2.30%. Again, amazingly low. The US Treasury 5 year bond now yields 1.89%. In effect when you buy 30 year Treasuries you're taking 25 years of duration risk for the g...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 8:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015
Replies: 18
Views: 1798

Re: Foretelling Global Stock Returns, 1980-2015

Great post as usual for you, Todd. Thanks for posting. And some great input as usual from nedsaid. This Forum is a great educational resource in the fields of investing and finance for those who wish to look beneath the surface noise on which most financial media concentrate.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jul 01, 2017 10:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 2659

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?


No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 30, 2017 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean
Replies: 29
Views: 3938

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Fewer Stocks Mean

Good article, thanks for posting Dave. Always enjoy reading Larry's thoughts. Larry suggests that factor premiums have taken a 25% haircut but they are still exploitable. I believe he favors a multi-factor approach to do so. Larry is bright and knowledgeable guy and his "Larry Portfolio" i...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?
Replies: 28
Views: 2260

Re: What is the “Natural Real Interest Rate”?

ralph124cf wrote; I believe that current long term interest rates are irrationally low, and thus I have zero long term bond exposure. Ralph I agree with Ralph. The developed world is awash with two things, savings among the wealthy and aging populations that must prepare for retirement. Many of the...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?
Replies: 14
Views: 2427

Re: Prime MMF is 25% Yankee/Foreign. What is that?

Valuethinker wrote: The manager of VG Prime MMF has given an interview (I don't have a link) in which he says: - they are cognizant of the direct European risks-- no Italian or Greek bank paper - they have studied the secondary risks and are very 'tight' (short maturity, exposure only to the best c...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 27, 2017 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS yield curve
Replies: 4
Views: 586

Re: TIPS yield curve

As an aside, short term rates are largely controlled FED policy. The FED has already raised rates and plans to continue doing so unless the inflation/employment picture deteriorates. Long term rates change much less in response to FED policy than to the bond markets assessment of future long term ec...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 24, 2017 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6073

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

triceratop wrote: Of course there is default risk, that is why the yield on this bond is so high. I'm less sure how the fact it is priced in USD implies more default risk. Wouldn't there be objections to investing in this bond if it was priced in Pesos since the investor would be taking on signific...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 23, 2017 6:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.
Replies: 64
Views: 6073

Re: Argentina issuing 100-year bond.

It is easy to understand why Argentina might issue 100 year bonds. In this country inflation is a constant and has been so for a long time. The currency is volatile to say the very least, sometimes almost illiquid. Fiscal policy is imprudent now and has been often in the past. The governmental defic...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 21, 2017 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias
Replies: 49
Views: 4040

Re: Stock Market become safer as holding periods lengthen - Maybe just a bias

Yes, it is true that stocks are risky, but it is also true that for long term investors whose goal is to have portfolio growth they are essential. Many on this Forum prize intermediate Treasuries as the an example of ultra-low risk and suggest a heavy allocation to that asset class because of its sa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 7:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active
Replies: 5
Views: 1218

Re: Larry Swedroe: More Evidence Against Active

Thanks for posting this article, Random Walker. Read it and enjoyed it. I really miss Larry's input on the Forum and these posts are helpful at keeping us in touch with Larry's insights.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 6:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta
Replies: 24
Views: 2634

Re: Wealthfront ignores own advice; adds Smart-Beta

There is a bandwagon of money now seeking factor approaches and I suspect Wealthfront, like other financial companies, is shooting for a slice of that market with this new approach. The profit motive drives the vast majority of corporate decisions. When it comes to factors these are tough times to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments
Replies: 14
Views: 2079

Re: Moving to SF Bay Area, Considering REITs for investments

Congratulations on moving to the Palo Alto/SF Bay area. It used to be a great place to live. I know I used to live there. The good news is that the area is the intellectual/creative engine that drives much of worldwide technology innovation and the resultant tech income stream for the US and much of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?
Replies: 21
Views: 2227

Re: Global Stocks - Legacy of the Great Recession?

nedsaid wrote: Yes, there is a lot of noise in the financial data. And yes, numbers change over time as there seems to be a lot of slipperiness. International Stocks were the "must have" asset class before the 2008-2009 financial crisis and now they are hardly worthy of the dustbin. In a ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 10:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 131
Views: 15101

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: On the other hand, Ally Bank is offering a no-penalty CD at 1.35% for $25K minimum, and it was worth the five minutes it took me to open two of them last week (since I already have Ally accounts, and use Ally as my hub bank). I just went to the Ally Bank web site and checked on their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 131
Views: 15101

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Kevin M wrote: Finally! So why haven't you been using an "insured liquid bank account" earning 1% in preference to a MM account earning 0.01%? Currently Prime MM fund is yielding 1.01%. My local bank doesn't offer savings accounts that yield that much but even if they did I'd leave my mon...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 3:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Use of options, leverage, and short sales
Replies: 2
Views: 339

Use of options, leverage, and short sales

The following is an article by Rekenthaler of Morningstar about complex strategies that are used by hedge funds and the mutual funds that follow option, leverage, and short selling strategies. On average these strategies over the past decade have reduced rather than enhanced returns relative to plai...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 17, 2017 11:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)
Replies: 131
Views: 15101

Re: Vanguard Prime Money Market Fund (VMMXX) breaks 1.00 (% not $)

Two things about MM funds. First, they are instantly liquid at all times. CDs are not and have penalties for withdrawal before maturity. Second, the principal value, unlike short term bond funds, does not decline in an environment like ours at present when the FED is raising now and plans to continu...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 15, 2017 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7084

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

nedsaid wrote: Simplegift, the one thing left out of your original post are Health Care costs which have been increasing faster than inflation. Also for seniors, health care costs tend to be a bigger budget item than for younger investors. Nedsaid makes a good point. The problem is that the factors...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What growth rate for your projection calcs?
Replies: 31
Views: 2667

Re: What growth rate for your projection calcs?

Simplegift wrote: • For Stocks: The earnings yield of S&P 500 (reciprocal of current PE 10, or 1/26) = 3.85% • For Bonds: The current yield of 20-year TIPS Bond = 0.77% That's about the same estimates that I'm using for future returns which I hope is a conservative estimate. Attempts at estimat...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 14, 2017 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk
Replies: 61
Views: 5231

Re: Larry Swedroe: Stocks, Bonds, & Risk

carolinaman wrote: This article makes me think of the statement "If you have already won the game why keep playing?" Some people have high equity allocation through their working careers and have achieved a lot of success with their investments. As they reach retirement they tend to forge...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7348

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

cantrip wrote: On Vanguard's "Portfolio and Management" page under VGSIX it predicts a 17.3% Earnings Growth Rate for the coming year. From a factual point of view this statement is incorrect. Vanguard makes no predictions about what the earnings growth rate will be going forward. The Ear...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 11, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: EM SCV Liquidity
Replies: 4
Views: 598

Re: EM SCV Liquidity

I am a long term buy-and-hold investor usually I don't do limit orders just market orders. If you're going to hold it for 5 years, it makes very little difference to spend time and trouble with a nickel and dime approach to purchases and sales. DGS, one of my holdings, has a total asset base of 1.21...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jun 10, 2017 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?
Replies: 82
Views: 7084

Re: Is Inflation Dying of Old Age?

Great post, Simplegift. Brings up a very interesting question that has major long term implications for DM economies and investments. I tend to agree that all DM demographics are unfavorable and getting worse, with historically low labor force participation rates, and that these changes are not temp...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next
Replies: 89
Views: 10459

Re: Jim Rogers predicting "crash of a lifetime" this year or next

willthrill81 wrote:
Nobody knows nothin'.


1+

The main function of predictors of the economic future is to make fortune tellers look good--Warren Buffett's take on predictors and predictions.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium
Replies: 47
Views: 5026

Re: Larry Swedroe: Persistence Of The Value Premium

Random Walker wrote: Haven't seen the article. I can only give you my cumulative opinion from the lay person's reading I have done. To me the risk story for value makes complete sense: higher cost of capital, more leveraged, distressed, more variable earnings. When I started my interest in value I ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1206

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

I am not saying that Cliff Asness is a con man. I believe he is honest and as I said before highly intelligent and knowledgeable. I further believe that he completely believes in what AQR sells and gives rational and often compelling reasons for his choices based on backtesting data. I merely made t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 779

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

I have my assets with Vanguard but TRP is now and has been for a long, long time an excellent and reputable financial firm which has, I believe, advised investors well over the years, kept active management fees relatively low, and in general provided good returns for investors.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jun 08, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness
Replies: 18
Views: 1206

Re: Bloomberg Invest Spotlight: Cliff Asness

Asness presents AQR's point of view effectively as one would expect. He is very smart and very knowledgeable guy. I have been listening to and reading the opinions and analysis of financial experts who are very smart and very knowledgeable for 3 decades. Two things are striking about their insights....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Jun 07, 2017 1:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Some good articles from TRPrice
Replies: 5
Views: 779

Re: Some good articles from TRPrice

Good information, Paul, thanks for posting. Interesting article by from T Rowe Price on Growth versus Value investing. In the large cap arena LC Growth beat LC Value by 9.5% in 2015. However in 2016 LC Value beat LC Growth by 10.2%. T Rowe Price makes the case that historically there are periods of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 7:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2610

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Simplegift wrote: ust from curiosity, charted below are the annual deviations of the price index from the fundamental values in the OP. With today’s high market valuations, plus intense interest around the world in U.S. companies and their prospects, one wonders if there will ever be a future time ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Jun 06, 2017 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016
Replies: 29
Views: 2610

Re: Mr. Bogle Values the Market, 1928-2016

Great post, Simplegift. It makes the point that underlying fundamentals over the long haul have exerted gravity on market price euphoria and conversely given a lift to market price desperation from panic. Speculative return is powerful over short time spans but negligible over the long run. It also ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Murphy's Law Of Retirement
Replies: 42
Views: 6861

Re: Murphy's Law Of Retirement

arcticpineapplecorp. wrote: stocks are for accumulating wealth, bonds are for preserving wealth and cash is for spending wealth. Make sure you have enought cash and bonds so you don't have to sell your stocks and allow them time to recover. When they do, you sell stocks that have recovered and incr...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jun 04, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments
Replies: 74
Views: 6340

Re: Boglehead Portfolio vs. All Other Possible Investments

joer1212 wrote: Simple question: Is a passive, low-cost, diversified index portfolio* really the best bet to achieve the highest possible risk-adjusted, long-term returns anywhere? How do you know this? It is a simple question but there's a problem. We never know beforehand the exact details of whi...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 10:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?
Replies: 27
Views: 2354

Re: What is the fair value of the Vanguard REIT Index Fund?

Simplegift wrote: One wonders if something has fundamentally changed in the equity REIT market since Mr. Bernstein made his post? Or whether it's just been extreme yield-seeking by investors in a low interest rate environment? Up until 2010, low dividend yields were historically correlated with low...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7348

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: What support do you have for REITs being overvalued? I showed two graphs showing they are undervalued based on recent NAV discounts and currently in line in regards to P/FFO. The total market is trading at higher valuations than recent history, implying REITs are undervalued compare...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 31, 2017 12:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe on REITs
Replies: 66
Views: 7348

Re: Larry Swedroe on REITs

kosomoto wrote: In 1997 the dividends paid by Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares (VGSIX) were 77 cents per share. In 2016, the dividends were 1.28 per share. This is a growth of around 2.5% annualized. There are two factors to take into account in this. One is share price. In 1997 the share p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel Investing
Replies: 16
Views: 3016

Re: Angel Investing

I have made angel investments so I'm speaking from experience. Do not invest any money in an angel investment that you aren't fully prepared to lose every penny of. These investments are totally illiquid and subject to much higher levels of risk than any other investment alternative I'm aware of, pe...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 5101

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Simplegift wrote: In short, when times are good, investors are willing to pay more for the same dollar of earnings than when times are dire. 1+ The simple truth. One thing I must disagree with is the argument that there is no relationship between economic growth as measured by GDP and equity return...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 29, 2017 11:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?
Replies: 8
Views: 1648

Re: VTIAX & VTSAX - Why Low Morningstar Ranking?

Most international equity funds do not include emerging market exposure. VTIAX does and that has negatively impacted its returns in recent years relative to its peers due to EM underperformance. Hence the low ratings. When EM outperform DM for a signifiant period of time, It is expected that VTIAX w...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?
Replies: 28
Views: 4691

Re: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

For me, there's a simple answer the question: Great Depression Lesson - Is Total Bond Market Too Risky?

No.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 28, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?
Replies: 41
Views: 5101

Re: Why Are U.S. Stocks So Expensive Today?

Great post, Simplegift, thanks for posting. I agree with the basic thrust of the article. Bernstein has made a similar observation, as markets and economies become more developed and stable, less risky, their valuations go up and their expected returns drop. Higher than historically average PE ratio...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 26, 2017 11:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing
Replies: 42
Views: 2543

Re: Larry Swedroe: Value Premium: Risk Or Mispricing

Two quotes from Arnott's article are IMO likely true: We find that the performance of the market, value, and momentum factors in live portfolios is sharply lower than their performance in theoretical model portfolios. This may be contributing to many of the new live factor strategies faring as poorl...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 25, 2017 7:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA Retirement Income Strategies
Replies: 83
Views: 8890

Re: DFA Retirement Income Strategies

Just my 2 cents worth. I believe this portfolio to be excessively conservative (a person at retirement should have 80% of assets in TIPS plus LMP) for most because given the size of the portfolios of most retirees, a TIPS plus LMP will not provide them with sufficient income to cover retirement expe...

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