Search found 1553 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 21, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?
Replies: 11
Views: 1773

Re: Vanguard Muted Returns -- Thoughts?

I tend to agree with Vanguard and others who expect positive but significantly lower than historical rates of expected stock and bond returns in the US going forward. No one knows how the future will actually play out, but it may be a mistake in financial planning to project US historical returns go...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 19, 2017 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing
Replies: 22
Views: 3118

Re: Rewards of Multiple Asset Class Investing

Great post, Random Walker. It makes a very important point in favor of wide diversification off asset classes in a portfolio.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 18, 2017 5:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?
Replies: 59
Views: 4235

Re: What is the main purpose of rebalancing?

I believe the main purpose is to reduce risk. It provides a formula for making asset allocation changes which, if followed, may reduce emotion-based buy/sell decisions. To be successful however, a high level of self-knowledge, especially risk tolerance, is necessary. Often it takes the real experien...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 8:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"
Replies: 33
Views: 4845

Re: "Goldman's Bear Market Indicator Shows Crash Dead Ahead"

The article by GS is interesting. It predicts a 67% chance of a bear market in the next two years which doesn't seem like an outlandish prediction to me. It gives them plenty of wiggle room. 2 years is a long time frame and even over 2 years they estimate a 33% chance that there will be no bear mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 17, 2017 1:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S & P broke major technical/psychological number
Replies: 21
Views: 2730

Re: S & P broke major technical/psychological number

Personally I place no faith in technical analysis or in threshold psychological numbers as predictors of future market action. This news does not change my outlook in any way.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller PE over 30
Replies: 17
Views: 1390

Re: Shiller PE over 30

IMO it is time to rebalance to your asset allocation model which hopefully reflects your true risk tolerance, but not to make substantial portfolio changes based on fear of an imminent market collapse. When something sufficiently disruptive happens, such that mass psychology shifts into reverse, the...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 16, 2017 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6724

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

Doc, if all we're talking about is moving a portion of TBM into Treasuries and that action makes you feel more secure about future market disruptions, it seems rational to do it. Treasuries offer the ultimate safety in a market collapse. Currently their yields aren't far from TBM's, so switching isn...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 15, 2017 4:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?
Replies: 75
Views: 6724

Re: Distressing news -> Flight to Safety ?

After stocks long run I rebalanced today from stocks to bonds. This is not market timing but merely rebalancing. A great deal of good news is currently baked into US market prices and, as Doc points out, there is plenty of potential risk in the world. I do not believe, however, that it is time to ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 14, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg
Replies: 94
Views: 11784

Re: Ted Seides "Why I lost My Bet With Warren Buffett" - Bloomberg

Those are good results relative to the experts, nedsaid. You've been investing for a long time and it appears that you've learned a lot along the way. If you invest long enough, it is inevitable that you've make lot of mistakes, but for the adept market student, failures turn out to be better teache...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: My Favorite Alternative Funds
Replies: 143
Views: 13255

Re: My Favorite Alternative Funds

HEALTH WARNING: WHAT WE DO IS VERY RISKY 2016 was far from a smooth ride and, given the diversity of our risk exposures, no year ever will be. Our reinsurance portfolios took many hits in 2016, including the Fort McMurray wildfires, Hurricane Matthew, and a magnitude 7.8 earthquake in New Zealand. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors
Replies: 30
Views: 4186

Re: Recent Hurricanes Provide Good Lesson For Investors

It has been suggested in the past that reinsurance sits at some unique place on the risk/reward spectrum with bond-like security and equity-like return. It may well have a unique risk/reward profile, not really correlating with the stock market while offering higher expected returns than the bond ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 11, 2017 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?
Replies: 50
Views: 6893

Re: What If U.S. Stocks Stay Expensive For Years?

Great post, Todd, and great comment, lack_ey. You can learn a lot on the Forum simply by reading the posts. The forecast for US market returns by Phillips and Ural (6% nominal) is close to what some others suggest (Vanguard, Swedroe, Schwab). Given low inflation, 1.5% - 2.5%, that would offer real r...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 10, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3497

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Robert T wrote: On value performance in low growth-low inflation environments. Japan is one example. Since 1990s inflation has averaged less that 0.5% with many years of deflation, and real annual per capita GDP growth has on average been less than 1%. Since June 1994 (the period for which MSCI Jap...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 09, 2017 4:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard’s chief economist says artificial intelligence, automation stymieing market forecasters
Replies: 4
Views: 1012

Re: Vanguard’s chief economist says artificial intelligence, automation stymieing market forecasters

I agree with Joe Davis on this one. It is undeniably true that in the past technological advancement has created not only more wealth, but also more jobs than it has destroyed. In this current case I fear that the future may well be different from the past. Since the middle of the last century, say ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 08, 2017 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 34
Views: 3497

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Something we have to keep in mind in evaluating the presented graph from 1951 to 1973 of market, high quality value and low quality value indexes. Survival rates. Low quality value companies, the cheapest of the lot, would be expected to go out of business more often than higher quality value compan...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 08, 2017 1:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Irrational fears?
Replies: 23
Views: 1698

Re: Irrational fears?

All of us have irrational fears. The question is how much we allow irrational fears to affect our judgement and determine our behavior. Vanguard is a totally reputable company, IMO offering the best stewardship for its clients of all financial companies. Basically almost any outcome in financial mar...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9060

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Robert T wrote: 2003–2016: Annualized return (%) / 2008 (downside) return (%) Sequoia = 6.9% / -27.0% Tweedy Browne Value = 6.7% / -24.4% Personal ‘factor-tilted’ portfolio* = 9.3% / -28.7% 75% Global stock (MSCI ACWI):25% US total bond = 7.5% / -30.4% * ‘Factor-tilted’ portfolio = 75:25 stock:bond...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over
Replies: 52
Views: 5415

Re: The Emerging Markets "lost decade" is over

Top99% wrote: This thread means it is time for me to whip it out again: https://www.callan.com/wp-content/uploa ... d_2017.pdf This is the single best piece of visual evidence I know of for the value diversification. As for Emerging markets suffering from corruption, I suspect the market knows that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 06, 2017 7:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades
Replies: 21
Views: 1809

Re: Robert Shiller on bitcoin & information cascades

I admit that I don't understand Bitcoin. I may not fully understand investing in other areas of the financial markets either, but I understand them a lot better than Bitcoin. I don't invest in anything I don't understand. Also I don't invest in anything simply because it's skyrocketing in price, rat...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 04, 2017 7:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted
Replies: 61
Views: 3220

Re: Why can't the future of stocks be predicted

The future of stocks has never been predictable by anyone over any significant period of time with a high degree of reliability. That holds true in either the short term, the intermediate term or the long term. All you have to do is to look at Larry's annual follow-up on predictions made by acknowle...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 01, 2017 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing
Replies: 126
Views: 9060

Re: Value Factor Investing is not Value Investing

Very interesting discussion. Packer has raised some good questions, pointing out that value investors like Warren Buffett are not fans of value indexes and rather determine intrinsic value based on thorough research of a single company. No one argues with the concept that cheap beats expensive in th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 30, 2017 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4910

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

JBTX wrote: As to US household debt being highest on record, that may be true on absolute dollar terms, but not percent GDP which is the way it is typically viewed. From a peak of around 100% to 80% GDP. Still higher than average, but considerably better. True, but that 100% figure was at the heigh...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Adding to Emergency Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 725

Re: Adding to Emergency Fund

As a retired person with no income other than SS and with a large 2/3 equity allocation, I keep a large emergency fund, 2 -3 years of living expenses, and replenish it to that level every year, usually out of equity so that my bond allocation tends to slowly increase over time. If you have an income...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Riskier Bonds vis a vis AA
Replies: 33
Views: 2297

Re: Riskier Bonds vis a vis AA

JBTX wrote: Bond yields overall are historically very low, and risk premiums on junk are lower than normal. I would be very judicious in that space. There was a time some number of years ago post 2008 crash that the risk premiums were fairly attractive. I can see some argument for a modest allocati...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 29, 2017 5:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5389

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

The level of uncertainty about the forecasting the details of future market action is high, no matter who does the forecast. Too high IMO to massively bail out of one major asset class (US equity that has done quite well through market ups and downs for decades) and move massively into another which...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 29, 2017 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5389

Re: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

Pajamas wrote:
What are EM, EMV, QUAL, and VAL? I know what US is.
EM = Emerging Markets, EMV = Emerging Markets Value, QUAL = Quality factor and also the iShares ETF that targets that factor, VAL = Value Factor.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book
Replies: 160
Views: 6589

Re: Why I asked for Larry book thread to be closed

I'll just throw in my 2 cents about Larry's book. If you are interested in factor investing approaches, I believe it is an essential read. It is, as you would expect from Larry, very well researched and it goes into great detail on the nuts and bolts of each factor, why it exists and how robust it h...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 29, 2017 1:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM
Replies: 65
Views: 5389

Rob Arnott: Dump US stocks buy EM

The following is from a recent interview with Barrons. Arnott suggests that investors with high risk/volatility tolerance should dump US stocks and load up on EM, especially EMV which of course his EM fundamental indexes target. He also suggests that in the US market the factor currently with the mo...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 28, 2017 4:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4910

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

Simplegift wrote: The problem is that manufacturing is shrinking on a global scale. Though the total amount of physical stuff that humans make keeps expanding, the percent of economic activity that we put into making physical goods keeps going down. Manufacturing has become so efficient that it’s n...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 28, 2017 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?
Replies: 47
Views: 4910

Re: Demographic Headwinds for Stocks and Bonds?

willthrill81 wrote: Siegel found that stock returns of the 1800s were largely the same as those of the 1900s, so I'm not sure that a slow down in population growth will significantly impact long-term returns. It's not slowing population growth that is the problem. It's a shift in population demogra...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Banking stocks cheap?
Replies: 7
Views: 992

Re: Are Banking stocks cheap?

Q: Are bank stocks cheap?
A: Yes, by most measures they are.
Q: Can they stay cheap or even get cheaper?
A: Yes, given the right circumstances. They do seem to be value stocks but are they a value trap? Probably not, but I wouldn't bet the house on it.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small-Cap Value has had higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk
Replies: 49
Views: 4204

Re: Small-Cap Value has higher returns than Total Stock Market, with lower risk

Sorry I posted in the wrong space originally. The question is not do cost-free long/short SCV indexes outperform long only TSM over long periods of time. That does tend to happen on a regular basis. The important question is whether that outperformance is harvestable on an after cost basis for inves...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 27, 2017 2:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book
Replies: 160
Views: 6589

Re: Review with Me - Larry Swedroe's new book

The question is not do cost-free long/short SCV indexes outperform long only TSM over long periods of time. That does tend to happen on a regular basis. The important question is whether that outperformance is harvestable on an after cost basis for investors. There are always SCV funds that can be c...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 26, 2017 12:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel
Replies: 11
Views: 1861

Re: The Unsolvable Puzzle by Morgan Housel

Great article, siamond, thanks for posting. The hard part is that most of investing is stable over time. Most tactical changes are regretted. It’s difficult to tell, without hindsight, whether a strategy is expired or just temporarily out of favor. Long-term investing tends to work specifically beca...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7225

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

On the question of whether the China situation now is comparable to Japan in 1999, I have to admit that I don't know. Smart people like the famous hedge fund manager, Jim Chanos, who specialized in shorting stocks like Enron, the dot coms during the tech bubble etc., has been calling for the collaps...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 23, 2017 2:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out
Replies: 74
Views: 9960

Re: Larry Swedroe: Wait & You'll Likely Miss Out

Add my name to the list of thanks to Random Walker for keeping us up to date with Larry's insights. I totally agree with his point in this article, that in spite of very high CAPE 10 levels, US stocks are not in a bubble predictably destined to pop in the near term. Yes, they are generously valued a...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios
Replies: 14
Views: 2155

Re: Vanguard changed their way of computing PE ratios

The change in computing PEs is but one example of a broad trend in the financial industry to make stocks look more attractive by excluding bad things from data. EBIDA is another example. Estimated future earnings (used by Morningstar) is another. Who estimates these things? Those who sell and market...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 22, 2017 1:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7225

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

One final comment about Japan's shrinking work force and the challenges it places on future economic growth. Unemployment in Japan is essentially nonexistent, currently 2.8%. There are two potential solutions to this which they could use. One is to increase work force participation by women, which i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 21, 2017 1:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does Market-Cap Growth Benefit All Shareholders?
Replies: 4
Views: 655

Re: Does Market-Cap Growth Benefit All Shareholders?

I think this makes a great point. Investors should not assume economic growth accurately determines equity returns on a country to country basis. Historically the more slowly growing countries (DMs) usually have produced better long term equity returns than rapidly growing countries (EMs). As others...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989
Replies: 78
Views: 7225

Re: Japanese Bubble Burst 1989

alex_686 wrote: This lead to social stability. It also poured resources into dead end industries. Japan's youth faces a hard landscape. They are more likely to have a temporary contract job instead of those lifetime jobs. So their skills tend to be less developed. With lower earning power they are ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 20, 2017 12:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dynamic risk management and dynamic correlation adjustments
Replies: 8
Views: 742

Re: Dynamic risk management and dynamic correlation adjustments

Dynamic risk management is attractive in theory where it seems to offer a desirable risk/benefit ratio especially when you're backtesting using the parameters that have worked optimally in the past to define when to shift between equity and lower risk investments. Whether the same parameters will in...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 17, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT
Replies: 12
Views: 2039

Re: Fundrise - Accredited Investor REIT

This is simple. In the current environment, NOBODY can assure you of an 11+% annual return or an 8+% annual dividend going forward for 20 years. To suggest that says implies a huge load of slick marketing with a very thin slice of reality. Both stock and real estate markets in the US are extremely c...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 16, 2017 7:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015
Replies: 85
Views: 11372

Re: Study: The Rate of Return on Everything, 1870-2015

Very interesting paper, Simplegift, thanks for posting. It evaluates global, rather than US-only data. It includes Europe, Japan, and Australia, basically DMs. I wonder how this squares with Shiller's charts of US house prices adjusted for inflation and for maintenance costs.Shiller asserts that rea...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 16, 2017 12:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: what was the actual return of BND last year?
Replies: 20
Views: 2306

Re: what was the actual return of BND last year?

The advantage (and disadvantage) of a money market fund is that it has a fixed principal value, no gain or loss in principal value except in extremely rare circumstances and only to a few poorly managed funds in the severe financial crisis of 2008-9. From 1982 for 30+ years, interest rates were fall...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 16, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly
Replies: 71
Views: 6800

Re: Larry Swedroe: World Isn't Flat-Invest Accordingly

Very good article, thanks for posting, Random Walker. I think the points Larry makes are valid and timely. Including INTL, especially SC INTL and factors like SCV if you are a factor believer, is expected to provide increased portfolio diversification and also the possibility, but not guarantee, of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 15, 2017 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

flossmoor wrote:
Anybody who talks in terms of a "safe" 8% withdrawal rate from a retirement fund, or hints that 12% going forward is a reasonable target/goal/hope is just wrong.

Case closed, the end.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

jbolden1517 wrote: Loads are bad, but they aren't that bad. You are counting the same money multiple times. On a one year basis that's what they would need to outperform by. On a 10 year basis the load is doing 54 basis points of damage per year and the ER is another 62, so 1.36%. On an annual basi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 14, 2017 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?
Replies: 42
Views: 5323

Re: What a Low Return Outlook Means for Your Retirement?

Excellent post, matjen, thanks for sharing it. I believe it raises issues that all of us should be aware of, like not counting on historical US stock and bond returns going forward in our retirement planning. The biggest missing point is, as matjen pointed out, omitting consideration of internationa...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 13, 2017 9:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

Lancelot wrote: According to this link https://www.americanfunds.com/individua ... .html.html five American funds have beaten Vanguards 500 Index fund, since its inception in 1976. I'm still chewing on that one. Does that include the 5.75% load? American Funds start out with 94.25 while the 500 Ind...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 13, 2017 6:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice
Replies: 65
Views: 7255

Re: Dave Ramsey spends two segments on his investing advice

Jags4186 made the point with a graph that American's Growth Fund (AGTHX) has outperformed the S&P 500 (VFINX) since its inception in the early 1970s, more than 40 years ago. That outperformance came early on and, as its success became common knowledge, lots of assets flowed into AGTHX which now has ...