Search found 2773 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 25, 2020 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market
Replies: 13
Views: 1613

Re: Why bonds may be the only thing propping up the stock market

One of the purposes IMO of FED policy since 2007 is to drive investor dollars from safe assets (bonds) into risk assets (stocks, real estate, venture capital, etc.,) in an attempt to stimulate economic growth, job creation, and support asset prices. Their actions in the GR and the COVID-19 recession...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 25, 2020 1:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Will the US become like Japan?
Replies: 57
Views: 4032

Re: Will the US become like Japan?

theorist wrote: Here are some projections from experts about equity returns in the coming years, made soon after the recent crash. Even with equities cheaper than they were in February, you see that GMO, Morningstar, and Research Affiliates are hardly bullish on US equity returns going forward a fe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 24, 2020 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5822

Re: El-Erian comments on the crisis

For the record I don't think that El-Erian or any body else, "expert" or otherwise, knows what is going to happen in the market's future before it happens. Certainly not in an actionable sense day to day during a market roller coaster ride. Observing market action however, the huge recovery from the...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 23, 2020 6:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4696

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

In the current environment (rates close to zero nominal) in safe fixed income, and with what many expect to be lower than historical intermediate/long term returns for equity going forward, what happens to future fixed nominal obligations like pension plans, annuities, and insurance companies? Will ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 23, 2020 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds
Replies: 71
Views: 4696

Re: TIAA warns on negative yields on money market funds

Risk of negative rates coming to some MMF? Looks that way. What about the risk of negative rates coming to Treasuries? That has already happened in Japan and Europe. With the 1 yr yielding 0.17% and the 10 yr. yielding 0.64% there's not far to go to hit zero. Powell has previously stated that he int...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 23, 2020 1:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: El-Erian comments on the crisis
Replies: 60
Views: 5822

El-Erian comments on the crisis

Interesting interview and comments from someone who has IMO a good understanding of markets and the economy. Like Zell, he doesn't think a V shaped recovery is a sure thing. Lots of risk still out there and our options to deal with it are robust but less than perfect. Sobering assessment. https://ww...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 22, 2020 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4409

Re: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

DonIce wrote: Actually the fed can control the entire yield curve, not just short term rates. They can buy and/or sell whatever amount of all dates of treasuries to shape the yield curve to be whatever they want it to be. I suggest reading the following article based Gene Fama's long term research ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 21, 2020 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?
Replies: 50
Views: 4409

Who's right about the future? Stock or Bond market?

Stocks have re-traced over 60+% of their losses in this bear market. Stocks rose almost as quickly as the sudden drastic decline itself. Equity markets are a forward discounting mechanism and it seems to be telling us that in 6 - 12 months both the equity market and the economy are going to be much ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 19, 2020 8:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8749

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

Bill Bernstein wrote: The reason to avoid China's equity markets can be summarized in one word: dilution. The best estimates are that the Chinese equity markets dilute their share pools on the order of about 20% per year, so even if the country is growing its GDP and corporate profits at slightly l...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 19, 2020 7:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“
Replies: 138
Views: 8749

Re: Dr. Malkiel: “I believe that investors need to put more China into their portfolios“

HomerJ wrote:

In his case, however, it sure looks like he's changed his beliefs depending on who is paying him.
This is a common practice in the financial industry/literature.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 17, 2020 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates
Replies: 79
Views: 7680

Re: NYTs article:— New York Times article May 17, Dealing With the Dark Side of Low Interest Rates

7eight9 wrote: Multi-year guaranteed annuities (MYGAs) might be a consideration. The companies that provide annuities have to derive their future payouts from the same markets that we do. There is no magic way around that. Payouts have to be decreased in this environment in response to the ridiculo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 16, 2020 9:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 43
Views: 3496

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

Mr. Asness's article makes the point that value however you wish to measure it is now dirt cheap or at least it was when the article was published. He suggests it's at all time lows by a composite of PE, PB, PS, and next year's estimated PE. It's a screaming buy. It clearly has been getting cheaper ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 15, 2020 2:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]
Replies: 27
Views: 684

Re: [Direxion’s QMJ long short fund]

QMJ seems to be high quality rapidly growing LC (almost half the portfolio is LCG tech which have been big winners) minus low quality, stagnant growth, cheap (energy, financials, mostly LCV). It has leveraged recent winners and has shorted recent losers. Quality usually holds up better in bear marke...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 15, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119284

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

I must confess I do not understand funds with P/B ratios much under 1 (like AVUV’s 0.78 or RZV’s 0.49, vs. VIOV’s 1). Why don’t the underlying companies sell their assets? There are not a lot of buyers for these SV companies now which is precisely why they have such low P/B in the first place. In a...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 14, 2020 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Academic Papers on Bonds
Replies: 4
Views: 275

Re: Academic Papers on Bonds

From the article: For both series, we find a weaker credit premium that is not statistically significant after adjusting for equity market factors. Consequently, we find that corporate bonds are duplicative in portfolios that already include stocks and government bonds and therefore have not improve...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 13, 2020 8:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reacting to low interest rates
Replies: 80
Views: 5944

Re: Reacting to low interest rates

I agree that deflation/economic growth stagnation rather than inflation/overheating economy appears the be our biggest risk for the foreseeable future. The possibility of negative US rates is real. Europe and Japan have them now. Mr. Powell says no now but that could change. How long will the econom...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 13, 2020 8:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?
Replies: 43
Views: 3496

Re: AQR/Asness on the Death of Value...Which Vanguard ETFs to Get?

Mr. Asness is a brilliant and knowledgeable student of the market. Having said that, the timing of this piece is interesting. In the first 3 months of 2020, AQR's assets under management decreased by 43 billion dollars (186 billion to 143 billion) due to a combination of investor withdrawals and inv...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 13, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements
Replies: 25
Views: 4178

Re: "Scary" Stocks For The Long Term: Jonathan Clements

willthrill81 wrote: All roads carry risk. 1+ Stock risk if felt with acute powerful emotions in a market collapse. Bond risk is delayed and hence not as powerful emotionally. You may not fully perceive the full weight of that delayed risk of that delayed risk of a bond dominate portfolio until you'...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 13, 2020 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund
Replies: 114
Views: 8995

Re: Why it’s a good idea to hold long term Treasuries as your emergency fund

balbrec2 wrote: ↑Wed May 13, 2020 12:07 pm HEDGEFUNDIE wrote: ↑Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:42 pm This past week has taught me the importance of a cash reserve. You might be looking at the need for an emergency fund through too narrow of a lens. A cash reserve is not just in case of a layoff during a market ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 12, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?
Replies: 213
Views: 10018

Re: Paul Tudor: Compelling case for bitcoin ?

IMO buying Bitcoin is 100% speculating pure and simple. It might be a home run or a strike out in the long run. No way to reliably tell that future. If you like gambling/speculating it might be appropriate for a small percentage of your risk assets. My upper limit of speculation tolerance is no high...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 11, 2020 2:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: All small cap international
Replies: 56
Views: 3481

Re: All small cap international

I think a rational case can be made for overweighting SC in the INTL space, either all SC or 50SC/50LC. Rational case does not guarantee a successful outcome but this approach is likely to increase diversification (different sector weightings relative to LC, more tied to domestic rather than global ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 11, 2020 2:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2686

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

coffeeblack wrote: You can't tell the future. No one can. So why the doomsday scenario? I don't think I painted a doomsday scenario, only a realistic guess (admittedly a guess) at expected returns which I believe will be considerably less than Wellesley Income's 9% withdrawal rate over the last 35 ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 10, 2020 7:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?
Replies: 32
Views: 2686

Re: Going by PORTFOLIO VISUALIZER Wellesley Income fund lasted 35 years with a 9% withdrawal could this be right?

The period of 1985 to 2020 was a fabulous time to be heavily invested in US bonds and US LC dividend paying stocks which is where Wellesley operates. It was the greatest bond bull market in US history and a period of robust economic growth combined with ever decreasing deflation which expanded stock...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 08, 2020 9:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119284

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

Market history teaches us that growth outperformance alternates with value outperformance over multi-year periods. Likewise with small cap versus large cap, alternating multi-year periods of outperformance. We have been in a regimen of growth outperforming value and large cap outperforming small cap...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 07, 2020 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years
Replies: 42
Views: 4065

Re: Bonds Beat Stocks Over the Last 20 Years

IMO starting at where we are now with equity valuations and bond yields, the chance that LTT will beat diversified US stocks over the next 30 years is very close to zero. The last 30 years has been the greatest US bond bull market in history, largely driven by two things: ever lower inflation rates ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 06, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

SteadyOne wrote: Is this what Japan did in 1990s propping up zombie companies? Yes, I believe that is what happened in Japan. Banks and lenders failed to foreclose on corporate loans that would force companies to go bankrupt and out of business. Instead they lent more money to keep these struggling...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 06, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

dmcmahon wrote[; Read the Christine Benz interview. Currency doesn't explain the performance gap. Nor does the sector mix. Nor multiple expansion. EPS growth accounts for most of it, said the interviewee who crunched the data. Make of it what you will: https://www.morningstar.com/articles/96 ... av...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 05, 2020 4:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

Forester wrote; In other words prudent investors/citizens lose out. This is true. There is moral hazard in propping up those who took on greater risk than they should have. What you can wind up with is a lot of zombie companies that are kept alive by ever higher levels of debt than they can manage....
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 05, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire Hathaway is hammered
Replies: 60
Views: 11829

Re: Berkshire Hathaway is hammered

Berkshire has asset bloat, so much money to invest that of necessity it must be a large/megacap fund to soak up its dollars plus cash waiting for compelling opportunities to invest in. It is very difficult these days to find stocks in the heavily and professionally scrutinized LC space that are comp...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 04, 2020 3:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

SimpleGift wrote: And no one has a clue now which companies will be in the best position to take advantage of this growth over the next 50 to 75 years. It could be local emerging market companies, it could be European multinationals, or it could be U.S. firms — or all of them. That's why at least s...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 04, 2020 1:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119284

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

imak wrote: Verdad Capital published an interesting research note as part of their weekly research newsletter. An Apology for Small-Cap Value: https://mailchi.mp/verdadcap/an-apology ... ccdfa129b7 From Conclusion: "Getting to those levels over the past few years has been extremely painful for smal...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 04, 2020 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs
Replies: 90
Views: 5270

Re: The Fed buying Corporate Bond ETFs

When this thing started there was real vulnerability in the corporate debt market. Average ratings of corporate bonds had been declining for years and there had been a huge expansion of lower rated and junk bond debt. Powell foresaw the potential popping of the corporate bond debt bubble, lots selli...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 04, 2020 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"
Replies: 7
Views: 891

Re: "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable"

I think Mr. Taleb's investing advice is important to keep in mind regardless of whether the current situation is a black or white swan. It's just sound basic common sense from someone who's been watching markets carefully for a long time has seen investing trends come and go. Thanks for posting, Tay...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 03, 2020 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead
Replies: 96
Views: 8988

Re: Bill Bernstein: Why value is dead

I would argue that it is simple common sense that value will struggle relative to growth at times of low inflation. Low inflation is heavily correlated with low GDP growth, which in turn is heavily correlated with corporate profit growth. Hence it is very difficult for corporations to grow their pro...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 03, 2020 11:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: American exceptionalism

acegolfer wrote: Why does EMH support 50/50 but not other ratios? Global market cap weight breaks down to about 50% US 50% INTL. Money around the world flows to countries where investors perceive the optimal opportunities for returns or risk adjusted returns. There is a tendency for investors to ov...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 03, 2020 11:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

Re: American exceptionalism

JoMoney wrote: I'll see if I can find a quote/reference for what I'm saying, but I would be interested if you could find a reference for yours stating that he believed it would outperform. Perhaps I misspoke. It's safe to say that all investors who are interested in optimizing returns or risk adjus...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 02, 2020 9:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]
Replies: 237
Views: 16051

[Are American markets likely to outperform INTL]

Bogle believed in American exceptionalism--that our markets and our economy are exceptional and likely to outperform INTL regardless of INTL's more attractive valuations as measured by PE, PB, etc.. I have always believed that valuations do matter and have agreed with Larry, Arnott, and Bernstein ot...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 02, 2020 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid
Replies: 56
Views: 7956

Re: Larry Swedroe..Four Investment lessons from Covid

Basically I agree with Larry's points except the suggestion to perhaps rebalance equity/bonds at this point. I believe there is a real possibility that we will go back the range of the prior lows which might offer a better opportunity for rebalancing for those who wish to increase risk at an emotion...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 01, 2020 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 1474
Views: 119284

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

imak wrote: Conclusion from the article: "Overall, the results of this analysis seem to reinforce the findings from the (much longer) US history. When using constructs consistent with modern indices, the combination of size and value factors (e.g. MCV, SCV or a combo of both) delivered significant ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 30, 2020 1:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is LTT appearing "nice" only because interest rates has been dropping since "forever"?
Replies: 89
Views: 4630

Re: Is LTT appearing "nice" only because interest rates has been dropping since "forever"?

There is immense enthusiasm for LTT at present largely because of their multi-decade outperformance, plus the increased diversification they offer for equity volatility, plus many financial institutions/pension funds with fixed long term nominal payout obligations need guaranteed long term nominal r...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 29, 2020 3:25 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks
Replies: 82
Views: 6183

Re: Which Bonds when the S&P 500 Tanks

There is no doubt in my mind that LTT offers dollar for dollar the optimal diversification to downside equity volatility in bear markets. I expect that a portfolio of 60 S&P 500)/40 LTT is now and has been for decades a very good risk/return tradeoff. LCB is less volatile than SC, especially SCV, an...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 28, 2020 3:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 2862

Re: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?

TPIR wrote: A student of interest rates will find the quarterly letters from Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Management to be concise, pragmatic reads. https://hoisingtonmgt.com/economic_overview.html This is an interesting and very sobering report. If true, we're in for tough sledding ahead in both stock ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz
Replies: 38
Views: 6692

Re: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz

I agree that forecasts are not reliable or accurate. Forecasts would be so helpful for financial planing if they were accurate but they aren't in any reliable way. Having said that for the purposes of financial planning--asset allocation, anticipated financial needs, etc.,--I believe it to be a mist...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 28, 2020 1:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps
Replies: 29
Views: 1527

Re: Bogleheads Wiki: Small Caps

Blue456 wrote: Actually Small Caps beats TSM. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... rTaxExempt $10,000 invest in small caps in 1977, would yield you today half a million dollars more than TSM. As MotoTrojan has pointed out this is an unfair comparison, comparing a cost-free long/short, no tra...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 27, 2020 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?
Replies: 41
Views: 2862

Re: What's Behind the Long-term Decline in Interest Rates?

SimpleGift wrote: To expect real interest rates to rise back to historical averages anytime soon, one needs to expect a reversal in these long-term secular economic and demographic trends. While a reversal is possible, it would hard to bet on it, in my view. 1+ I agree with this analysis with respe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 26, 2020 2:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is it possible that VUBFX is down? [Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond]
Replies: 15
Views: 1101

Re: How is it possible that VUBFX is down? [Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond]

More than 96% of the assets in this fund are not backed by the US government, overwhelmingly corporate exposure. When a recession/bear market strikes especially if the drop is deep and quick like this one, investors in a herd rush to sell corporate bonds, both investment grade and especially high yi...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 25, 2020 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz
Replies: 38
Views: 6692

Re: Vanguard's new forecast from Christine Benz

It is the same old tune in terms of valuations and expected returns that we've been hearing for a long time: INTL equity will outperform US, EM will outperform DM, US is too richly valued, as is growth relative to value, etc.. What has happened in the short and intermediate term past up to now has b...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 24, 2020 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020
Replies: 151
Views: 6261

Re: Vanguard factor funds performance - Q1 2020

A random distribution of results for any large class of items tends to fall reliably into a bell shaped curve. Most hover in the middle with a few outliers of underperformance and outperformance at the ends of the curve. Finding a factor fund winner or loser is therefore always possible by selection...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fixed Index Annuities - better than bonds?
Replies: 18
Views: 1067

Re: Fixed Index Annuities - better than bonds?

I believe it to be another sale of pseudo-safety to anxious investors at a high price. Designed to be sold, not bought.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 22, 2020 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries
Replies: 807
Views: 51593

Re: First 20% of bonds in long-term Treasuries

SnowBog wrote: My bias for my "safe" assets is - oddly safety, not returns. So if a short or intermediate has a smaller potential return (more variable rates) but is "safer" (less variable value), that's a tradeoff I'll gladly make. I'll take my risk on equity... But your comments and this thread (...