Search found 1380 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 28, 2017 8:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.
Replies: 70
Views: 4026

Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

When giving a speech to the House of Commons in 1947, Churchill actually said this: Many forms of Government have been tried, and will be tried in this world of sin and woe. No one pretends democracy is perfect or all-wise. Indeed, it has been said that democracy is the worst form of Government exce...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Mar 28, 2017 11:24 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bogle Interview CNN - Sat.
Replies: 70
Views: 4026

Re: John Bogle interview: is "deep risk" growing?

triceratop wrote: I'm sure Bogle is speaking about international markets and countries, because the corollary to his recommendation to invest solely in Total U.S. Market for equities is that he doesn't believe political risk can show up in the U.S. I believe that in the interview Bogle does show so...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: reviewing the literature on private equity
Replies: 4
Views: 457

Re: reviewing the literature on private equity

Great article, thanks for posting, Larry. Swenson stands out as not only a highly competent manager but also an honest one who from his long experience tells the simple truth: for the overwhelming majority of individual investors simple low cost broadly based index funds are the way to go. Another i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 27, 2017 11:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 19
Views: 1226

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Finally got around to reading all 3 of the articles that siamond posted. I think they make very good points and much appreciate siamond's sharing them with the Forum.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Mar 26, 2017 11:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?
Replies: 34
Views: 3914

Re: So why exactly is everyone gloomy about bonds?

nedsaid wrote: I am not gloomy about bonds, just realistic. We had a 30 plus year bull market in bonds from 1982 until the mid-2013 "taper tantrum." Bond prices have wobbled around since then but I believe the bond bull market is over. My gosh, even the most optimistic bond bulls don't ex...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Mar 25, 2017 2:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them
Replies: 103
Views: 5984

Re: Blog on emerging Markets, and investors underweighting them

I think Larry's article makes an excellent point. I am about 50US/25EM/25DM in equity weighting. I don't know which of the 3 is going to outperform in the future so I hold considerable weight in all. I am not now and never have been a risk averse investor. In the face of an uncertain future I believ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Mar 20, 2017 10:27 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets
Replies: 5
Views: 558

Vanguard's comments on the economy and markets

Joe Davis, Vanguard's Global Chief Economist, has written a piece on the Vanguard website entitled, "We're not going back to the 80s but expect the Fed to raise rates." In it he gives Vanguard's view of the economy and markets, present and future. Vanguard believes that underlying macroeco...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Mar 18, 2017 3:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Risks of MLPs
Replies: 26
Views: 1612

Re: Risks of MLPs

I believe that it was Taylor who posted, "More money has been lost stretching for yield than at the point of a gun." Anything that yields 7% in today's low yield, highly priced financial markets has risk whether its recognized up front or not. Concentrating in a such a small segment of the...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Mar 16, 2017 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard
Replies: 5
Views: 689

Re: AQR/Asness - Factor Timing is Hard

Interesting the conflict between Asness (factors aren't really expensive and even if they were the relationship between being expensive and investor returns in the short-intermediate term are not tight) and Arnott (factors other than value are expensive now and have lower expected returns going forw...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 15, 2017 10:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker
Replies: 34
Views: 4187

Re: Shiller says market is "way overpriced" - what a shocker

A market correction at some point is inevitable. When it will occur and how severe it will be are both unpredictable. If your time horizon is long and your asset allocation is sound, there is IMHO no reason to jump ship on equities or to make dramatic changes to the portfolio other than possibly reb...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Mar 01, 2017 8:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?
Replies: 36
Views: 6653

Re: Mom & Pop investors piling in. Bad Sign/Good sign?

I believe investor sentiment is on the high side and market complacency is also high. After long years of risk aversion and fear of equity volatility, piling into Treasuries on a grand scale, the stock pessimists seem to have at last given up and started piling into riskier stocks. Sentiment has shi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 28, 2017 12:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How reliable are forward PE ratios?
Replies: 20
Views: 1215

Re: How reliable are forward PE ratios?

The people who estimate and create forward PE numbers are by and large those in the financial industry who derive their income from equity sales and marketing. They have a vested interest in always seeing the glass as half full at least even when it's barely wet. Historically their estimates of futu...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 28, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]
Replies: 10
Views: 1171

Re: "2016 Brings Perfect Weather for [Liability Matching Portfolio]

grok87 wrote: The stock market is up. Long term interest rates are up. Time to sell some stocks and start building that 30 year tips ladder? Inflation protection for 30 years with a real fully taxable yield of less than 1%? Unless you are both extremely risk averse and very wealthy, the answer to t...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 27, 2017 11:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Technical Analysis
Replies: 37
Views: 2111

Re: Technical Analysis

David Jay wrote: As others have said, the human mind is a pattern-matching machine and we find patterns where there are no patterns. One can think of "technical" analysis as a behavioral finance issue. 1+ Hits the nail on the head IMHO. Some ancient generals used to examine a freshly slau...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 25, 2017 12:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20201

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

Homer3 wrote: Actually, your subsequent investment results were barely affected at all... comparing a low PE10 This was a response to my point that investing in 1982 when PE10 was 7 produced dramatically better results than in 2000 when PE10 was 44. Homer3 points out that returns have been decent s...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 5:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20201

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

willthrill81 wrote: Further, how do account for valuations being 'high' for the last 25 years, with only a brief exception? That hasn't happened before. Does that mean that we're truly in 'uncharted territory'? I think that an honest answer would have to be 'maybe'. I agree with this statement. As ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:54 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Beware the Pessimists!"
Replies: 3
Views: 719

Re: "Beware the Pessimists!"

Beware of pessimists is right, good advice. Over the long term, optimism in US markets has been rewarded handsomely for those who did not flee during the inevitable downturns. While nothing about the future is certain, this is about as reliable as it gets in investing. The problem has not been so mu...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 24, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20201

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

willthrill81 wrote as a rebuttal to Larry's point on valuations: Changing your AA on the basis of valuations still sounds very much like market timing to me. You are making a presumption, even if it's an 'educated' one, about future returns and changing your investment strategy on the basis of that...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads
Replies: 40
Views: 4482

Re: Warren Buffett v. Bogleheads

nedsaid wrote: This is not actionable for most investors except at the extremes of market valuation and sentiment. 1+ Market timing and tactical asset allocation tends to work well if your name is Warren Buffett. For most of us, the results aren't so good. Warren has decades of experience in invest...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 22, 2017 11:25 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Thrill seeking and investor behavior
Replies: 1
Views: 242

Re: Thrill seeking and investor behavior

Interesting post, Larry, thanks. I believe its essential premise to be true. Thrill seeking leads investors to high beta, frequent trading, and likely lower returns. On the other extreme, those who are by temperament extremely risk averse do tolerate market volatility well, and either sell stocks du...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 21, 2017 12:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider
Replies: 307
Views: 20201

Re: Extreme Valuations, and why you should reconsider

I believe that US equity valuations are a bit stretched at present, but not in my view in bubble territory. Basically there is already a lot of future good news baked into stock prices now. Valuations currently are not based on what the current corporate profits are but on an optimistic view of anti...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 17, 2017 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1099-B form from Vanguard has wrong cost basis
Replies: 8
Views: 1015

Re: 1099-B form from Vanguard has wrong cost basis

Vanguard's cost basis may be decreased by dividends/interest paid out?

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 16, 2017 6:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?
Replies: 51
Views: 3575

Re: What happens to European bonds if the euro starts to fail?

Haven't read the whole post so I apologize beforehand if someone has made this point before. There is a strategy that largely removes the uncertainty and risk of EURO denominated bonds from the picture. Its called buying US bonds or bond funds which have higher yields and much less, although some, p...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1942

Re: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes

Robert T wrote: Just to note that using the assumption of a -0.10 long-term momentum load on Vanguard Small Value and a +0.30 momentum load on the iShares MSCI USA Momentum would lead to a 25:75 iShares MSCI USA Momentum: Vanguard Small Value combination having a net-zero momentum load - if this ho...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 13, 2017 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1942

Re: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes

Robert T, thanks for the correction to my previous post. As usual you're flawless with data and knowledge. MOM didn't get killed during the collapse of the tech bubble but it did suffer severely not long after that. MOM tends to get killed not during a crash but on the recovery from a crash which wa...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 13, 2017 11:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 10369

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

Larry wrote: Re mean reversion What you MUST remember is that the US outperformance in recent years, really since 2008, has been due to RISING VALUATIONS mostly, and that means lower expected returns. The CAPE 10 is now 28, way above historical average and meaning real expected return is say 4% at ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 12, 2017 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1942

Re: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes

lack_ey wrote: For some factors, particularly the higher turnover ones like momentum, the relationship between factor valuation and subsequent factor return is pretty weak anyway, with even the theoretical benefit of timing being weaker than for market beta and I don't think you suggest timing that...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 12, 2017 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes
Replies: 21
Views: 1942

Re: RAFI Multi-Factor Indexes

Robert T wrote: Adding momentum - 30:70 Momentum:Fundemantal Index lowered the tracking error from 4.5% to 3.4% (again see table 3 in the linked article https://www.researchaffiliates.com/docu ... 20Beta.pdf). Table 3 also illustrates that adding momentum is more effective at reducing tacking error ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 12, 2017 12:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: vanguard international bond fund
Replies: 22
Views: 5045

Re: vanguard international bond fund

Balance on $10,000 so far: INTL: $11,424 Balance on TBM: $10,774 What to make of that? Who knows, but this fund certainly hasn't harmed holders of Life Strategy and VG Target Date funds. What I make of it is that DM Central Bank policies have diverged from US FED policy. The FED is tapering off of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 10, 2017 8:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Turns out the so-called "smart" money isn't so smart
Replies: 3
Views: 1018

Re: Turns out the so-called "smart" money isn't so smart

I think part of this is due to the relatively short time leash that institutional money and active funds are on these days. Money is pouring out of active management in general and into index funds due to persistent underperformance of the former. Successful value investing and index investing requi...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 08, 2017 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 56
Views: 4438

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

Kevin M wrote in response to my post: I think you may be confusing safe withdrawal rates (SWRs) with returns. Sorry about the errors, and thanks for the correction. I didn't read the whole post, just zoomed to the graphs which caught my eye. My comments were based a trio of misperceptions: wrong co...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 07, 2017 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis
Replies: 56
Views: 4438

Re: A short study of the recent Japanese crisis

Kevin M wrote: If I'm understanding your chart, the SWR for 100% bonds never dropped below 6%. Why isn't anyone remarking on this? That graph looks compelling for 100% bonds over 25 years but I am almost certain those are nominal, not real, rates of return. During the 25 year periods the US suffere...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 07, 2017 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?
Replies: 63
Views: 4854

Re: What is the prediction of future long-term returns for your portfolio?

Just my 2 cents worth. If those returns are real and inflation adjusted I believe CALPERS predictions over the next decade or so are markedly optimistic. If they are nominal returns (which I suspect) I believe they're mildly optimistic. I have a 2/3 equity 1/3 bond portfolio and my rather conservati...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Feb 07, 2017 8:39 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Research Affiliates Latest Research
Replies: 4
Views: 637

Re: Research Affiliates Latest Research

There is no doubt that based on backtesting, a well-chosen multi-factor portfolio looks great in terms of both performance and lower volatility. Theoretically it is very appealing. Backtesting multi-factors is easy. You select the right mixture of factors in the right proportions, the right criteria...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 06, 2017 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A note of caution from Robert Shiller
Replies: 66
Views: 9919

A note of caution from Robert Shiller

Amidst the optimism demonstrated by multiple new highs in US equity markets, Robert Shiller sounds a message of caution. Comments? The Dow is up only 19% in real (inflation-adjusted) terms since 2000. A 19% increase in 17 years is underwhelming, and the national home price index that Case and I crea...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Feb 06, 2017 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How the Bogle Model Beats the Yale Model
Replies: 28
Views: 3056

Re: How the Bogle Model Beats the Yale Model

Great post! Demonstrates that a high cost complex "secret sauce" portfolio has reliably achieved only one thing relative to a simple inexpensive 3 fund portfolio over the past 10 years. The thing it has reliably achieved is lots of income and fees for those who create and market it. Take h...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Feb 05, 2017 1:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts
Replies: 115
Views: 10369

Re: Fresh Look at the "Larry Portfolio" from Portfolio Charts

I don't think there's any portfolio with reasonable expected returns that better prepares for black swans than Larry's. It is expected to produce a very high Sharpe ratio (return per unit of risk). Having said that, like other bond dominated portfolios it currently looks great on backtesting because...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:59 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends vs rent vs loan interest
Replies: 15
Views: 1298

Re: Dividends vs rent vs loan interest

crowd funded rental properties and p2p hard money loans paying 12%. In my opinion, anything in the current market/fixed income environment that pays 12% annually has risk, likely considerable risk to either principal loss or failure to make interest payments. Crowd funded rental properties and p2p ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Feb 04, 2017 11:42 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?
Replies: 40
Views: 4066

Re: 30 yr TIPS Auction Feb 16: real yield 1.1%?

Guaranteed 1% real in this fixed income market isn't bad. The problem however is that a 30 year instrument maximizes duration/interest rate risk. If you need the money before 30 years and you're forced to sell your 30 year TIPS, you may suffer considerable principal loss if rates are higher and espe...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Feb 03, 2017 12:35 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor-Diversified Portfolio
Replies: 175
Views: 14575

Re: Factor-Diversified Portfolio

Robert T wrote: Choose a portfolio you can stick with over the long-term. Personalize it to you. Robert 1+ I believe this is the essence of successful long term investing, more important than whether you choose a high versus low bond allocation or a factor based versus cap weighted index approach. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Feb 02, 2017 8:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."
Replies: 55
Views: 5258

Re: Bobbie Christensen "She explains how to find safe and secure investments with 100%+ growth per year."

This information packed seminar will show you how to safely turn $50 a month into $100,000 in just 10 years! The obvious question is: if she knows how to do this why is she offering such incredibly precious information to you for $49? Perhaps she prefers not to hog all those fabulous gains just for...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Feb 01, 2017 9:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is a total market fund the most diversified
Replies: 157
Views: 13885

Re: Is a total market fund the most diversified

Larry wrote regarding fundamental indexing as per Asness: The funds are okay to use, but it's their mechanism to create them I find without justification, and can be exposed as nothing more than a value/size tilt, as Asness did. They created them to be able to license them IMO Larry I'd like to tak...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 30, 2017 12:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How to Produce High Quality Investment Research - Valuation
Replies: 5
Views: 524

Re: How to Produce High Quality Investment Research - Valuation

Excellent article, matjen, thanks for posting. Many US-centric investors have for long years ignored or seriously underweighted INTL and especially EM and it has paid off well for them to do so. There is however in financial markets a thing called reversion to mean. I don't know when it will happen-...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Jan 29, 2017 1:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US versus Intl. value tilt: Does it make a difference?
Replies: 16
Views: 6297

Re: US versus Intl. value tilt: Does it make a difference?

Very interesting post, Robert T, thanks for posting it. I'll add one point which I got from Larry's recent book. Since its discovery and widespread publication in the financial literature the value premium as well as all of the other described premiums persist but have modestly decreased in magnitud...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.
Replies: 33
Views: 2954

Re: Discuss hedging the market with puts on an S&P fund.

valuethinker wrote:
if you don't understand it, you shouldn't invest in it.


1+ Actually it's quite simple.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 28, 2017 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Markets Are Right More Often Than You Think"
Replies: 9
Views: 1820

Re: "Markets Are Right More Often Than You Think"

Park wrote: What leads to secular bear markets? From my nonexpert point of view, overpriced markets play a significant role in secular bear markets. How can one deal with an overpriced market? One can short, but that's even more difficult than beating the market going long, which is how the vast ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Jan 27, 2017 12:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Markets Are Right More Often Than You Think"
Replies: 9
Views: 1820

Re: "Markets Are Right More Often Than You Think"

Great post, Taylor, thanks. It is very hard to beat the market and it gets harder every year. The question is not whether the market always sets prices perfectly (EMH) but whether you as an investor can accurately determine whether those market prices are too high or too low for a given stock. If yo...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Jan 26, 2017 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Whole life & Annuities
Replies: 11
Views: 1091

Re: Whole life & Annuities

Both annuities and whole life insurance policies are financial products that usually pay very generous sales commissions to those who peddle them and considerable profits to companies who offer them which is precisely why these products are pushed so enthusiastically to the frightened and insecure b...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Jan 21, 2017 12:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Century decreasing stock allocations - Interesting article
Replies: 16
Views: 2182

Re: American Century decreasing stock allocations - Interesting article

I do not believe that this information is actionable if you already have a well thought out asset allocation plan. That said, current prices of US equities have a lot of good news already baked into them. Investors are anticipating Trump administration induced increased corporate profits and much of...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Jan 16, 2017 12:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns
Replies: 30
Views: 1781

Re: The gulf between MOM fund returns and MOM factor returns

For the record, Larry's new book is an excellent source for those who want to take a serious in depth look at factor investing research.

Garland Whizzer

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