Search found 2949 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 28, 2020 3:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 47
Views: 2994

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

Zardoz wrote: Swensen recommends 15% TIPS and 20% REITs in his reference portfolio, but he also notes the importance of creating a portfolio that aligns with your goals and philosophy: Correct me if I'm wrong about this but I believe that Swensen has changed his portfolio recommendations in recent y...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 28, 2020 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

For what it's worth, my 2 cents worth. I think a lot of the struggles of SCV over the last 13 years are due to the underlying macroeconomy which has been weak. The recovery after the GR was the weakest recovery on record, inflation and economic growth as measured by GDP growth have been persistently...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: It's Not Different This Time
Replies: 372
Views: 38453

Re: It's Not Different This Time

In general it is a good idea to stay the course but there are infrequent circumstances when it is appropriate IMO to slightly or modestly modify the plan. How do you know when to do that? There are no set rules for all. IMO it is useless to ask others for the answer whether they be experts or novice...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 27, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?
Replies: 47
Views: 2994

Re: Does the three fund portfolio provide adequate protection from inflation?

nedsaid wrote: The older Boglehead portfolio of Total Stock Market, Total Bond Market, Total International Stock Market, TIPS, and REITs might be a place to start if you are concerned about inflation. 1+ I believe this to be a reasonable position especially if inflation is your primary concern. In ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 26, 2020 12:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 10 Smartest Things Ever Said about Investing by Jack Bogle
Replies: 16
Views: 2568

Re: 10 Smartest Things Ever Said about Investing by Jack Bogle

I never tire of reading Jack Bogle's wisdom, and wisdom is the right word. He has helped more investors to achieve financial success and in doing do has completely transformed financial investing playing field in favor of the average investor. In the world of financial investing gurus he is an origi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 25, 2020 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: A visual, possibly of Value & Growth, and their weight in the world over time?
Replies: 1
Views: 257

Re: A visual, possibly of Value & Growth, and their weight in the world over time?

Interesting article and in general it makes good points. Tangible assets are easy to measure. Intangibles much less so, very subjective, which is why TSLA has such huge volatility in the last year or so. The point where I disagree is this quote: In the absence of robust reporting, Columbia Threadnee...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 24, 2020 5:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Swenson's Yale Portfolio
Replies: 23
Views: 2144

Swenson's Yale Portfolio

https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/yale-endowment-gains-6-8-trailing-u-s-stocks-51600981440?mod=mw_latestnews It's been a tough time recently for alternate investments like huge overweights in real estate, hedge funds, venture capital, buyouts etc.--all assets which Swenson has consistently prefe...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 22, 2020 2:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?
Replies: 25
Views: 2911

Re: What bonds should I look at for the next 15 year period?

I don't believe a magic bullet exists in the current bond market that will provide reliable real positive return risk-free. We are at the end of a massive 35+ years bond bull market during which 10 yr Treasury yields dropped from 15% to 0.6% and inflation declined similarly and consistently. During ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year
Replies: 93
Views: 4800

Re: Vanguard Multifactor fund VFMF has had a bad year

Robert T wrote: So far VFMF looks okay (if wanting those types of tilts). Here are the factor loads since inception (using daily data to increase sample size): 0.02 = Annual alpha 0.98 = Market 0.45 = Size 0.47 = Value 0.18 = Momentum 0.19 = Profitability [quality] These factor loads are very impre...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 21, 2020 6:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 28
Views: 3417

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

This discussion is about disruptive technologies so we need to know exactly what the term disruptive means with respect to tech stocks. The following is an article that examines this question. I don't think anyone would argue that AMZN hasn't disrupted the traditional bricks and mortar retail. It st...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks
Replies: 53
Views: 5794

Re: The Fed, Snowflake, and Stocks

Warren made $800,000,000 on the first day of trading in Snowflake. Financial firms that underwrite IPO offerings keep huge blocks of the initial offering which they make available to their firm's biggest and most important whale investors at the opening price. Certainly Berkshire Hathaway is a such ...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: So, you want to tilt to growth
Replies: 33
Views: 2747

Re: So, you want to tilt to growth

I agree that tilting to growth at this time, particularly loading up on the high flying mega-cap tech stocks that have done so well for so long, carries considerable risk at this time relative to a total market or an equally weighted market portfolio. The increased risk of value stocks is IMO fully ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 17, 2020 3:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 114
Views: 8783

Re: AQR still singing the same song

Ketawa wrote: Fun to see all the people who endlessly bash factor investing in this thread with the same tired arguments. Meanwhile, I'm happily plugging along with my AQR funds, which I have held since 2014. My entire IRA is AQR funds. QSMLX has outperformed every other noteworthy small cap value ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 16, 2020 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR and Vanguard funds performance vs. stated benchmarks, updated 8/31/2020
Replies: 13
Views: 1357

Re: AQR and Vanguard funds performance vs. stated benchmarks, updated 8/31/2020

Great post, nisi, thanks for posting. Those who believe that alpha can be generated on a consistent basis by academic backtesting derived strategies should take a hard look at these results. Cliff Asness is brilliant and has a vast wealth of academic credentials but what that bounty has produced the...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 28
Views: 3417

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

I think this is a very thoughtful interesting analysis for both value and non-value investors. It clearly seems to have explanatory power for stock returns over the last 13 years. Thanks for posting, itsmeagain. Value's striking underperformance during that span, the worst underperformance I suspect...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 15, 2020 7:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 28
Views: 3417

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

I think this is a very thoughtful interesting analysis for both value and non-value investors. It clearly seems to have explanatory power for stock returns over the last 13 years. Thanks for posting, itsmeagain. Value's striking underperformance during that span, the worst underperformance I suspect...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Sep 14, 2020 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any further reason to hold DLS?
Replies: 32
Views: 2252

Re: Any further reason to hold DLS?

It's not a fair comparison between DM SCV (DLS) and DM LCB (VXUS which includes both EM and DM LC). The appropriate comparison is between DLS (DM SCV with a dividend slant), FNDC (DM SCV with a fundamental index slant) and SCZ, the iShares DM SCB index with no value slant. Results are from Portfolio...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HELOC for Investing During Major Market Downturns. Bad Idea?
Replies: 30
Views: 1978

Re: HELOC for Investing During Major Market Downturns. Bad Idea?

You will know years down the road if this is a good idea or not. On retrospect the choice to use HELOC or not will look obvious, a no-brainer in retrospect. IMO there is no way that you can accurately make that decision prospectively. You will have a fixed financial obligation and an uncertain marke...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous
Replies: 88
Views: 24767

Re: Ken Moraif must be getting nervous

This is simple. Nobody knows with reliable certainty where the market is going over any signifiant time frame. There are 2 types of investors. Type 1 know that they don't know where it's going. Type 2 don't know that they don't know where it's going and market time with substantial portions of their...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 114
Views: 8783

Re: AQR still singing the same song

Forester wrote: IMO unfair to single out AQR on this front, assets fleeing active for passive is a broad movement. You also bizarely blame Asness's personality for gathering assets; isn't it up to pension fund managers to do their own thorough research? I agree that the movement from active/expensi...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 11, 2020 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: AQR still singing the same song
Replies: 114
Views: 8783

AQR still singing the same song

The following is an article from Pensions and Investments Online about AQR's troubles with lousy performance, high fees, and fleeing investor base. It is worth reading for those who are considering expensive complex quant strategies which as a group they have massively underperformed for a decade. R...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 11, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is going on with Vanguard International REIT / Real Estate Fund
Replies: 19
Views: 1867

Re: What is going on with Vanguard International REIT / Real Estate Fund

The lack of dividends this year is very curious. On 12/19/2019, VNQI distributed a dividend of $3.65/share which amounted to 6% of its share price in one quarterly dividend. For the full year of 2019, VNQI dividends were $4.48, about 7.5% of its average share price for that year. I suspect that thes...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 11, 2020 12:57 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Index Funds - Dangerous?
Replies: 46
Views: 3769

Re: Index Funds - Dangerous?

There is nothing wrong with and a lot right with investing heavily in TSM. Most who depart from it substantially will decrease their long term risk adjusted returns. It is IMO the default position for investors. TSM or S&P 500 indexes do sometimes get overly optimistic about LCG darlings, but as we ...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 10, 2020 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?
Replies: 67
Views: 4035

Too much S&P 500 index concentration in FAAMGs?

An interesting article from Charles Schwab pointing out the inherent risk in concentrating too heavily in 5 mega cap LCG winners FAAMGs. Cap weighted S&P 500 index has drifted progressively in that LCG direction for years and now, riding this positive wave with great returns. Now however these 5 sto...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Sep 09, 2020 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6871

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Robert T wrote: Is the past 7 years a permanent condition, or will there be some ‘revision to the mean” 1+ I believe this is the critical point. There is no doubt that US has massively outperformed INTL and that TSM has done likewise over SCV during the last 7 - 10 years. Is this a permanent change...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 08, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification
Replies: 92
Views: 6871

Re: International stock investing is industry diversification and style diversification

Both INTL and VAL stocks have suffered a decade or more of substantial underperformance relative to FAAMGT. Interestingly almost all of the US market outperformance during this time can be ascribed to a just a handful of mega-cap LCG darlings which has been the dominant driving force in US market ga...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Sep 06, 2020 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

garlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:46 pm I personally hold 75% TSM and 25% SCV. Robert T replied: Hmm. That’s the most surprising part given all the negative SV sentiments in your posts (perhaps just due diligence). I recall in an earlier post in this thread that you said you had sold your ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Sep 05, 2020 12:46 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

All I'm saying is that results of value investing are period dependent. True, over the long haul since 1994, INTL LCV as measured by DFALX outperformed. However since Jan. 2007, !3 years and 8 months ago, DFALX actually underperformed VGTSX, Vanguards LCB Index Fund. Not to mention that you didn't h...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Sep 04, 2020 2:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

There is no doubt that following the total collapse of the LCG tech bubble in 2000 -3, IJS, the SCV Fund, outperformed both the S&P 500 and TSM until 9/2020. In the absence of the tech bubble which reached extreme valuations that have not been seen since (including now) SCV has not outperformed sinc...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Boglehead diversification
Replies: 34
Views: 2235

Re: Boglehead diversification

nisi wrote: The most important thing to look at in an asset class is not "is it a good diversifier," but "is it a good investment." Diversification is important, but it comes second. The idea of an investment that is lousy in isolation but greatly improves a portfolio as a whole is theoretically po...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Sep 03, 2020 2:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAGX dividend vanished
Replies: 20
Views: 1202

Re: SWAGX dividend vanished

There have been many times in past decade when experts and amateurs alike stated that the almost 4 decade long US bond bull was over. Up to very recently they've been proved wrong, mistaking noise for signal. I believe that currently due to absurdly low bond yields and extremely aggressive actions b...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Sep 01, 2020 8:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability matching in a low interest rate world
Replies: 12
Views: 1041

Re: Liability matching in a low interest rate world

rossington wrote: If the risk free rate is essentially zero why do you think that lower returns are expected in stocks? It seems to me that the only current higher expected returns are in stocks. The current S&P 500 PE ratio is 36.2. Even given a zero safe bond rate that works out to an equity risk...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 31, 2020 8:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Liability matching in a low interest rate world
Replies: 12
Views: 1041

Re: Liability matching in a low interest rate world

willthrill81 wrote: If fixed income cannot provide you with the returns you need, then you have little choice but to (1) tilt toward those assets with higher potential returns but greater volatility, which is what many pensions are doing, (2) reduce future benefits, or (3) increase current contribu...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 30, 2020 8:12 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% VTSAX vs. 100% VIGAX
Replies: 27
Views: 2753

Re: 100% VTSAX vs. 100% VIGAX

IMO one of the greatest, if not the single greatest mistake, investors make is to assume that what is solid and fresh in their memory banks, the asset class that has done very well in recent years, will continue to do so well into the long term future. Most of the time historically today's big winne...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 30, 2020 2:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are you a closet market-timer?
Replies: 174
Views: 13818

Re: Are you a closet market-timer?

I think it's permissible to make modest shifts in your well-thought-out asset allocation in response to market conditions on an infrequent basis. Not necessary but okay as long as you have good judgement, a deep knowledge base, and enough experience to have a decent chance of separating noise from s...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 29, 2020 4:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 8048

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

Markfaix, if I were you there are a few things I'd keep in mind about your portfolio allocation with respect to meeting your goals. First of all I understand your point that with current bond yields, bond returns going forward are unlikely to produce any inflation adjusted returns at all, possibly r...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 27, 2020 1:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 8048

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

For the record, although I don't see things exactly like Robert T, I believe that he is a highly competent factor investor with the wide knowledge base, the deep well of patience, and the necessary persistence to succeed in reaching his financial goals long term. He is also scrupulously honest and m...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 26, 2020 8:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reviving value investing
Replies: 6
Views: 688

Re: Reviving value investing

XacTactX wrote: The machine learning part of the fund does not seem to be adding a benefit because AQR's factor model is explaining over 99% of the returns. If AQR's factor model explains 99% of returns, one wonders why AQR's funds have performed so poorly relative to beta (TSM, expense ratio 0.04%...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 26, 2020 1:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguards says 'Why International Now'
Replies: 38
Views: 4553

Re: Vanguards says 'Why International Now'

Vanguard as well as many highly competent and respected investment firms/advisors/gurus (Larry, Arnott, Bernstein, Grantham, etc.,) have been for more than a decade predicting that INTL and also small value were expected to outperform. Up to now, they have been uniformly wrong as US LCG has driven w...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 25, 2020 8:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If International, what specifically?
Replies: 88
Views: 7045

Re: If International, what specifically?

Robert T wrote: Annualized return: 1/1994 – 8/2014 13.1% = FTSE RAFI Emerging Market Index 6.4% = FTSE Emerging Market Index Why end in 8/2014 - that is when I received these data from Research Affiliates (after requesting it). This comparison if for cost-free, trading friction free indexes with tr...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Aug 24, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

If the alpha is not statistically different from zero when extending the series to 2020, it means that it must have been strongly negative over the period 2014 to 2020 to get to a 'zero' average for the full period. And indeed, portfolio visualizer suggests this was the case - QVAL annual alpha fro...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 23, 2020 1:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: If International, what specifically?
Replies: 88
Views: 7045

Re: If International, what specifically?

Robert T wrote: In short: Widsomtree Emerging Market ex-SOEs [XSOE] is another interesting fund to consider. I currently plan to stick with RAFI EM value but will be open to future research on this topic. Would be interested to see what an ex-SOE EM value fund would look like. Robert I used to hold...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Aug 23, 2020 12:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Book recommendations for young adults/new investors
Replies: 21
Views: 1388

Re: Book recommendations for young adults/new investors

Any of Bogle's books, there are all classics, any of Bernstein's books (Rational Expectations is my personal favorite), and if you're interested in factor investing, Larry Swedroe's Your Complete Guide to Factor Investing. Bear in mind that acknowledged experts disagree on many points, and I believe...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 9:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are these forecasts based on valuations reliable at all?
Replies: 29
Views: 1644

Re: Are these forecasts based on valuations reliable at all?

PB hasn't worked well for a long time. It has largely been discounted as the sole measurement of value because it hasn't worked well. There is controversy now about what is the best way to capture value premium and no certainty on this point. PB seemed to work well in the distant past on backtesting...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Aug 22, 2020 3:31 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!
Replies: 2963
Views: 213127

Re: Small Cap Value heads Rejoice !!!

nedsaid wrote: If I had to guess, what would happen is a change of market leadership. Not prediction the end of Tech or anything like that, just that Tech at some point will stop outperforming the rest of the market. 1+ I agree with this assessment. I do not expect a 2000 style tech collapse but in...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Aug 20, 2020 2:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance
Replies: 65
Views: 6007

Re: Economist article on bubbles and exuberance

I agree that there is frothiness localized mostly to mega cap tech darlings but extending into SVC/MC biotech, gold, and PME at present. The problem is predicting when euphoric MOM investors will hit a wall. It could go on for years as it did in the "irrational exuberance" that Greenspan complained ...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 19, 2020 9:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is the historical premium for small cap value?
Replies: 6
Views: 408

Re: What is the historical premium for small cap value?

The chance that a real SCV fund with real trading costs, real trading frictions, no cost-free long/short, and real management fees will earn a 8.1% premium over beta (TSM) going forward long term is zero in my opinion. If real SCV funds squeeze out a 1% - 2% premium long term going forward they'll b...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Aug 19, 2020 2:15 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies
Replies: 148
Views: 8048

Re: Behavioral Reasons to Avoid SCV/Factor Strategies

Robert T wrote regarding his SCV tilt portfolio: Fast forward 17 years: 2003-2019 Annualized return / SD / 2008 return 9.2 / 15.4 / -27.4 = Actual (global stock:bond portfolio with small cap value tilt) 8.8 / 18.7 / -42.2 = MSCI ACWI Index (global stock) These are impressive numbers and I believe R...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 18, 2020 2:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe
Replies: 35
Views: 5341

Re: Latest Thoughts from Larry Swedroe

Seasonal wrote: Barry Ritholtz: "Top-Heavy Stock Indexes Are Nothing to Fear. It’s not rare for a small group of equities such as Apple, Microsoft and Amazon.com to account for a large percentage of the S&P 500." https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ng-to-fear We are at a top ten concentrati...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Aug 18, 2020 1:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz
Replies: 54
Views: 3691

Re: "The Great American Bond Bubble" by Jeremy Siegel And Jeremy Schwartz

Lots of highly respected market mavens have been wrong calling for the collapse of the bond bubble for more than a decade. Making pronouncements for the future, whether it be the bond bubble or the return of robust SCV outperformance, often turns out to be hazardous the predictor's ego. There is no ...