Search found 1815 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 21, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

vineviz wrote: RYSVX is a terrible choice for trying to illustrate this point. Not only is it a full load fund with an INSANE 1.53% expense ratio, it is ineptly managed (nearly 1,500% stock turnover, 5% cash, and one of the worst tax-adjusted returns I've ever seen). The expense ratio was not alway...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 21, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

Robert T wrote: DFA uses P/B as a value metric. Over the last 18 years: 2000-2017: Annualized Returns / Growth in $10,000 8.85% / $46,035 = DFA Large Value Fund [DFLVX] 5.76% / $27,398 = Vanguard Total Stock Market [VTSMX] https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... ion2_2=100 Good point as always,...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 20, 2018 2:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

I believe the main point is that the value premium originally described by Fama/French was defined solely by GAAP measures of PB and it worked on backtesting at that time to produce robust long term outperformance. Now it no longer has worked in retrospect even on a cost-free basis for 18 years. I'm...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 18, 2018 4:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

The following website describes the problem with using PB as a criterion for harvesting the value premium over the last 18 years during which it has underperformed its benchmark, the Russell 3000. The author suggests that PB no longer works but can be modified by substituting "Tangible Book Value" f...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 18, 2018 12:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?
Replies: 38
Views: 3561

Re: Larry Swedroe: No Need For Corp Bonds?

nisi wrote: I think that unless you are close to 100% invested in bonds, it's all angels-dancing-on-the-head-of-a-pin stuff. As for the bond bull market, etc. absolutely everything that has ever happened in the history of US bonds has been unique in history. If you want to make any extrapolations f...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 17, 2018 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3958

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

raven15 wrote: -match duration to need for money -invest in longer term bonds if we have some combination of long horizons, large percentage stock allocations, will be making regular purchases for a long time, realize that long term bonds are risky -invest in shorter term bonds if we have some comb...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 16, 2018 12:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3958

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

raven15 wrote: Yield curves were flat in 2007 too. Even flatter in fact. Did 2007 turn out to be a bad time to buy long term government debt? IMO the main purpose of bonds in a portfolio is stabilization of volatility from the equity side. Vanguard's Long Term Treasury Bond Fund is down 6.92% YTD. ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 15, 2018 8:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good idea investing now in long term funds?
Replies: 57
Views: 3958

Re: Good idea investing now in long term funds?

Good idea investing now in long term funds? No. With a yield curve that is almost flat the risk/reward tradeoff is not favorable for increasing bond duration at present IMO. Historically speaking we're still in a very low rate environment. The point to increase duration risk is not when short term ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 14, 2018 9:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 42
Views: 5993

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

comeinvest wrote: The argumentation sounds reasonable. But WisdomTree and others argue the opposite. They say the dividend tilt helps during times of distress Dividend paying stocks do tend to perform better during market declines for the reasons stated and in general they do have a modest value sl...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 14, 2018 6:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'
Replies: 42
Views: 5993

Re: Larry Swedroe: Digging Into 'Deep Value'

Just my two cents worth. Looking backward with 20/20 hindsight, there are multi-year periods when growth outperforms value (1990s and following the collapse of 2007-9) that alternate with periods where value outperforms growth (2000-2007). Likewise there are multi-year time periods when large cap ou...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 14, 2018 3:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling
Replies: 8
Views: 1092

Re: Larry Swedroe: Risks Of Short Selling

In theory shorting losers should add to returns but it also can increase risk substantially relative to a long-only portfolio. This risk particularly shows up in MOM where short positions in high beta stocks that have gotten killed during the a long severe bear market suddenly backfire when the mark...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Cliff Asness (AQR) on Bloomberg discussing Fixed Income
Replies: 15
Views: 1670

Re: Cliff Asness (AQR) on Bloomberg discussing Fixed Income

AQR fixed income value = "For corporate bonds we compare credit option adjusted spreads against two fundamental anchors designed to capture the ‘risk’ that the company may migrate to a poorer credit quality. Our first fundamental anchor is a structural model which measures the bond’s “distance to d...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 10, 2018 12:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%
Replies: 97
Views: 10548

Re: Total Bond - SEC yield breaks 3%

willthrill81 wrote:
It would almost make you think that nobody knows what's actually going to happen.
1+

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 09, 2018 1:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?
Replies: 23
Views: 2368

Re: Concerned about Total Bond Mkt duration increase?

BlueEars wrote: I wonder if Total Bond Market (and other intermediate bond funds) pays enough for the added duration. It's a personal choice but for me the answer to this question at the present time is NO. Duration risk was rewarded roughly from 1982 to 2015 and duration risk wasn't an issue. Time...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 08, 2018 7:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 7565

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

Today is not my day. I misquoted Jim Grant. What he actually said is:
The problem with money is credit. The problem with credit is people.
Garland Whizzer, hopefully for the last time today
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 08, 2018 7:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 7565

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

Sorry about repeating Grant's quote twice.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 08, 2018 7:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 7565

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

Jim Grant with whom I often disagree always has pithy commentary. This is his quote about lending in general and its risk. The problem with money is lending. The problem with lending is people. Lending Club and P2P lending as an investment class is relatively new and it has done well in its brief hi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 08, 2018 7:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery
Replies: 56
Views: 4441

Re: Bond Fund Point of Indifference vs. Principle Recovery

What if it isn't a single 1 or 1.55 rise in rates (where equations can easily solve the point of principal recovery) but rather a long period of slow and gradual quarterly rate increases accompanied by slow gradual increases in inflation. In that scenario you can't define exactly when you'll get pri...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 07, 2018 8:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?
Replies: 26
Views: 2607

Re: Avoid Emerging Markets due to stricter securities regulation in Developed Markets? Lessons from SZSE..Maybe not?

SimpleGift wrote: Because of the a priori assumption in the minds of many that developed countries are exceptional and superior in every way, I wouldn't be surprised to see quite a few lessons coming from the developing economies in the decades ahead. After all, they do comprise 80% of the world's ...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 07, 2018 5:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?
Replies: 67
Views: 7565

Re: Peer-to-peer lending as an investment?

We've been in a modest economic recovery and an exuberant stock market recovery for 9 years. Expected defaults on loans whether they be LC, other P2P, mortgage, or corporate tend to be low when home and asset prices are rising and employment is increasing. Basically if you survived the Great Recessi...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 07, 2018 12:49 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 16829

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I have a considerable percentage of my fixed income assets (more than 50%) currently sitting in Prime MM Fund. Unlike longer term bond funds it has not suffered principal loss in this rising rate environment and hence it has significantly outperformed all Vanguard bond funds YTD. As long as interest...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 07, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What Percentage CASH are you?
Replies: 168
Views: 16829

Re: What Percentage CASH are you?

I have a considerable percentage of my fixed income assets (more than 50%) currently sitting in Prime MM Fund. Unlike longer term bond funds it has not suffered principal loss in this rising rate environment and hence it has significantly outperformed all Vanguard bond funds YTD. As long as interest...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 05, 2018 12:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?
Replies: 21
Views: 2187

Re: Does your value fund own the wrong value stocks?

Insightful article, thanks for posting, stlutz. How to define the value premium? PE, PB, PSF, Growth at a reasonable price, Quality at a reasonable price--lots of ways to do it. On academic backtesting, the author gets to pick the optimal parameters that harvested the premium in retrospect over a gi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 03, 2018 1:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]
Replies: 27
Views: 3278

Re: Investing in the World - Part 2 and 3 [Financial Page blog article]

Interesting, thanks for posting, siamond. New the end the author makes some observations that are worthy of consideration. Most of us assume that what seems stable and fresh in our memories, the exuberant yet less volatile returns in the USA for example, is destined to continue indefinitely. That ma...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 02, 2018 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?
Replies: 39
Views: 2881

Re: Stock Buybacks as a Global Trend?

Simplegift wrote: Just to add: If buybacks continue to make up an ever increasing share of total payouts to shareholders globally, dividend yield as a metric to compare stocks markets worldwide will likely become obsolete (if it hasn't already). Total payout yield (dividend yield + buyback yield) w...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 01, 2018 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 152
Views: 16397

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

lazyday wrote:

Just a clarification: high quality might be related to lower volatility, but as I recall the fund doesn't directly target low price volatility.
Thanks for the correction, lazyday. EMGF targets only 4 factors: value, momentum, size, and quality.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 30, 2018 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics
Replies: 152
Views: 16397

Re: Vanguard New Factor Funds Portfolio Statistics

In effect FNDE is a large/mega cap deep value fund that dramatically overweights severely depressed markets like Russia, Brazil, and to a lesser extent South Korea at present. One assumes that based on fundamental indexes the large cap/mega cap space is cheaper than the SC/MC space at this point in ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 29, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: The Costs Of Implementing Momentum Strategies
Replies: 10
Views: 1177

Re: Larry Swedroe: The Costs Of Implementing Momentum Strategies

ASMOX, the AQR SC MOM Fund, has been around for almost 10 years during which time it has consistently underperformed VB, Vanguard's SC Index Fund. AMOMX, the AQR LC MOM Fund, has also been around for almost 10 years and it has underperformed VOO, Vanguard's S&P 500 Index Fund, over that time period....
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 25, 2018 5:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small premium
Replies: 8
Views: 904

Re: Small premium

Hank Moody wrote: Is 25 years of live fund returns enough to know? Who knows? Not me. I argue on the Forum that factor investing is not a guarantee of future outperformance, that some questions remain regarding real factor fund returns going forward rather than very optimistic models derived from c...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:40 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small premium
Replies: 8
Views: 904

Re: Small premium

venkman wrote: According to Portfolio Visualizer, VIMSX does indeed beat DFSCX to date (9.99% to 9.63%) if you start in June 1998. However, if you start in January 1999, DFSCX wins handily (10.77% to VIMSX's 9.70%). VIMSX fund has been in existence since May 21, 1998 which is how the first date abo...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 25, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age
Replies: 94
Views: 10791

Re: Larry Swedroe: Financial Perils Of Old Age

Excellent article. Thanks for posting, Dave. Sobering to say the least. Likely best when elderly to have on hand considerably more assets/money/income than anticipated in most liability matching income assumptions. Very hard to know years/decades in advance what your financial needs will be, especia...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 24, 2018 8:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small premium
Replies: 8
Views: 904

Small premium

Many adherents of the small premium hold up DFSCX, DFA US Microcap Fund, as an excellent fund to capture that premium. It is run by, among others, Nobel Prize Winner Eugene Fama, who along with French first described the factor. DFA has a sterling and well-deserved reputation in the arena of factor ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 22, 2018 7:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13083

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

lack_ey wrote: But haven't they determined that the cost of currency hedging is something like single digits (or was it low teens) basis points for developed currencies back to USD? I think you're overstating the costs here. That being the effective "spread" they cross to enter into the currency fo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 22, 2018 2:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?
Replies: 92
Views: 5942

Re: Any value investor buying a Russia fund?

Those who hold FNDE have 13.8% of their exposure in Russia. Value and fundamental indexes like low PE and PB. EM Cap weight is less than 4%.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 22, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds
Replies: 168
Views: 13083

Re: I’m still not a fan of international bond funds

I totally agree with Rick and see no use in adding international bonds to a diversified US bond portfolio. US bonds historically have been if not the safest, certainly among the safest in the world. They are denominated in dollars the currency we spend. Currency exchange increases costs and adds cur...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 20, 2018 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How good are Vanguard bond funds?
Replies: 52
Views: 5218

Re: How good are Vanguard bond funds?

The bond market is very efficient at pricing risk/reward, more so IMO than the equity market. Pimco and other actively managed funds that outperformed "comparable" Vanguard funds likely took on more risk to do so. Moving down the quality ladder or up in the duration ladder in bonds inevitably increa...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 19, 2018 4:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15831

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

My point about the low level of 30 year TIPS real return (0.87%) is that the vast majority of experienced investors believe they have a 99+% chance of producing higher 30 year returns with a well-constructed, well-diversified balanced portfolio. It is very difficult, essentially impossible, to const...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 19, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?
Replies: 39
Views: 3733

Re: Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal?

Lack of FDIC Insurance a big deal? IMO, no, but that's just my opinion. The financial collapse of 2007-9 was the worst financial event since the Great Depression and the Prime MMF did not break the buck. That's good enough for me. If such a massive black swan event does occur in the future, bigger t...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 19, 2018 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans
Replies: 30
Views: 2908

Re: Larry Swedroe: What Hampers Pension Plans

Public pension assumptions is but one example of the bigger problem facing our future: many Americans, perhaps most, are ill-prepared financially for retirement. The combination of high levels of household and governmental debt, low household savings and investing rates among most Americans, demogra...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 18, 2018 1:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?
Replies: 172
Views: 15831

Re: 30 yr tips auction 2/15: 1.0% yield?

gmaynardkrebs » Wed Apr 18, 2018 8:05 am A real yield of less than 1% on the 30Y suggests something quite ominous to me about equities. The 30 year real yield stands as the market's best estimate about about future growth over the next 30 years. I can't see how one can square that with the high rat...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Short-Term Investment Options for a Rising-Rate, Volatile-Market Environment
Replies: 4
Views: 514

Re: Short-Term Investment Options for a Rising-Rate, Volatile-Market Environment

Favorite ST options of mine in this environment: Prime MMF and ST TIPS fund. When rates stabilize, I'll increase duration.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 18, 2018 12:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks
Replies: 6
Views: 1317

Re: Rise in rates continues - good for fixed income investors and banks

Rates are going up and that should be good for banks. For investors holding bond funds (most of us) this news hasn't been so good. The Vanguard Intermediate Term Treasury Fund has lost 1.65% YTD and the TBM fund has lost 1.54% YTD. Those are nominal returns but currently inflation is running a littl...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2017 Yale Endowment Report
Replies: 13
Views: 1044

Re: 2017 Yale Endowment Report

Quote taken from Yale Endowment Report 2017 Yale’s Endowment generated an 11.3% return, net of fees, in fiscal 2017. Over the past ten years, the Endowment grew from $22.5 billion to $27.2 billion. With annual returns of 6.6% during the ten-year period, For comparison, over the last 10 years Vangua...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 16, 2018 1:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Exclude Emerging Markets
Replies: 30
Views: 3237

Re: Larry Swedroe: Don’t Exclude Emerging Markets

Excellent article. Thanks for posting, Random Walker.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:51 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.
Replies: 82
Views: 5523

Re: Unimpressive category averages of managed futures, multialternative, market neutral, etc.

Nisi's post and its dramatic graph give excellent illustrations of "skating where the puck was." Our financial markets are very competitive and dominated by full time professionals who are constantly data mining in search of alpha. When past outperformance shows up, products to capture it proliferat...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 16, 2018 12:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization
Replies: 70
Views: 5957

Re: The World in 2050 — GDP & Stock Market Capitalization

SimpleGift wrote: Conversely, the market cap-to-GDP ratios are generally much lower for emerging economies, whose domestic companies have historically relied upon other sources of finance such as bank loans and retained earnings. Thus, a significant gap exists between market cap and economic size f...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Angel investor breakfast
Replies: 19
Views: 2378

Re: Angel investor breakfast

I know something about angel investing because I've done it in the past. It's as risky as things get, often an all or none proportion. It is very difficult to separate hype and dream from reality when you talk to those who this approach. I simply do not believe that an angel investor using this tech...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 15, 2018 9:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims
Replies: 98
Views: 11610

Re: We crush stock indexes, Yale claims

Cherry picking dates helps a lot. The last 20 years starting after 2017 began in Jan. 1998, near the end of the dot com boom in stocks which totally collapsed in March of 2000. The 20 year period chosen for comparison included just the tail end of the tech market skyrocket but it did include all of ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 14, 2018 12:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3875

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

azanon wrote; One correction I'd make here is to point out that GVAL makes no attempt to invest in small caps, or its strategy doesn't involve that. It ends up shaking out in the mid-cap category, but he's probably forced to buy some smaller stocks because some of the countries making the "bottom 1...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 13, 2018 4:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds
Replies: 49
Views: 3875

Re: Meb Faber/Cambria/Trinity Funds

I believe that Meb Faber is highly intelligent, very honest, very knowledgeable, and that his etfs are solidly built on existing backtesting research. The question is: does that reliably equate to improved returns for investors after costs going forward? Thus far in the short lifespan of Meb's funds...