Search found 2246 matches

by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 25, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How Much Diversification is Enough?
Replies: 12
Views: 510

Re: How Much Diversification is Enough?

SimpleGift wrote: DISCUSSION: In the low-inflation regime we have today, when central banks around the world are strongly focused on inflation targeting, it may be that high-quality bonds are the only diversification one needs to offset stock risk in the portfolio. If concerned about unexpected fut...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 24, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Indices Research - Is Low Volatility Anomaly Universal?
Replies: 10
Views: 635

Re: S&P Indices Research - Is Low Volatility Anomaly Universal?

Very interesting paper, imak, thanks for posting. Best explanation of the low vol factor I've read. It underperforms by a little when the market is going up and it outperforms a lot when the market is going down. Interestingly the low vol index underperformed substantially from 1990 to 1999 as the t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 24, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who killed value?
Replies: 23
Views: 2254

Re: Who killed value?

I think it is true that when inflation is low and the economy is struggling to produce robust growth--conditions that have mostly been present for a decade following the Great Recession--that the value factor usually struggles. This has certainly been the case for the last decade. What it demonstrat...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 23, 2019 1:50 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Investing in Total Markets"
Replies: 14
Views: 2159

Re: "Investing in Total Markets"

Very good article, thanks for posting, Taylor. Reminds me of a statement from Warren Buffett's mentor who, like Warren, was a legendary value investor. Ben Graham said that it is much easier than most investors think to get entirely acceptable and good returns in investing. He was referring to marke...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 23, 2019 1:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the housing market starting to collapse?
Replies: 107
Views: 8716

Re: Is the housing market starting to collapse?

simplesimon wrote in regard to the question is the housing market starting to collapse: We just bought our first house, so probably. The same thing happens in the stock market and on the Forum is known as the "nedsaid effect." It seems that when nedsaid buys a stock or fund, it often immediately dr...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 22, 2019 2:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Regression to the Mean - and our money
Replies: 16
Views: 1555

Re: Regression to the Mean - and our money

alexfoo39 wrote: To date, index investing triumphs over active investing based on probability. Will we, as regression to the mean suggests, perform worse off than active investing in future? No. See Nobel Prize winner William Sharpe's piece on the arithmetic of active management. It is a simple mat...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 22, 2019 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk
Replies: 59
Views: 3610

Re: Don't add currency risk on top of equity risk

xavierr wrote ; In a bear market, there is a flight to quality: investors sell risky assets to buy non-risky assets. US treasuries rally and so does the US dollar. If you’re holding foreign stocks unhedged, you will lose on the stock market decline, and you will also generally lose on the currency ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 21, 2019 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?
Replies: 74
Views: 8352

Re: Mid Caps have outperformed Large & Small for the past 50 years. Yet I see very little recommendation for them. Why?

It's hard to argue with 45 years of outperformance and better risk adjusted returns (higher Sharpe ratio) that MC has shown relative to both LC and SC. I believe this is due largely to investors overlooking them. Factor enthusiasts believe SC is preferable and load up on the size factor with SC. Man...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 20, 2019 1:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3022

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

willthrill81 wrote: Ignoring the fact that the median household is smaller today than it was in the mid-1970s, real household income grew by 35% between 1967-2017. That doesn't sound like "hardly budging" to me. Median household income is not the best way to measure wages. In the 1960s and 1970s al...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 19, 2019 3:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3022

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

SoverignInvestor wrote: The part about real wages seems to be off base. Averagr real hourly earnings of production non supervisory workers has risen substantially since the 1970s and is up firmly this decade. I suggest you read the following article from Pew Research written in August of 2018. http...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 19, 2019 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”
Replies: 117
Views: 5017

Re: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”

stultz wrote: It all depends on what you mean by "worked". Just to look at a bunch of iShares ETFs for the past 5 years. Total Market: 10.57 Quality: 11.61 Momentum: 14.90 Small Value 7.17 Minimum Volatility: 12.73 ------------------------------------- Factor Fund Average: 11.60 Well since stultz c...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 18, 2019 8:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”
Replies: 117
Views: 5017

Re: Factor ETFs For Diversification Or “Diworsification”

Factor investing comes from a model created by very bright people based on backtesting data. It attempts to define reality but is not reality itself. SCV has struggled for a decade or more. According to multi-factor theory when V struggles, MOM should take up the slack. That has not occurred in real...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 18, 2019 7:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?
Replies: 34
Views: 3022

Re: Why Are U.S. Asset Prices So High Today?

I agree that we in the US have greatly benefited from our lack of major wars (none on our own soil, unlike Europe and Asia which were devastated), relative political and economicl stability, world reserve currency, dominant technology innovation, deepest and most liquid investment markets, rule of l...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 18, 2019 12:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance
Replies: 68
Views: 4607

Re: Actual Experience as true measure of risk tolerance

How do you go about this? Do you think actual experience* is needed to reveal who we really are as investors? Yes. True risk tolerance is often discovered in the depths of a bear market. Objective rational analysis tend to disappear in many of us at those times due to fear/panic. After you've been t...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 17, 2019 8:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Last Jack Bogle Keynote and Farewell - Bogleheads 2018
Replies: 16
Views: 2308

Re: The Last Jack Bogle Keynote and Farewell - Bogleheads 2018

He was a great man and a towering giant in his field. He had a brilliant and original mind and was loaded with the great old virtues of character, values, honesty, and generosity. His focus was on helping all investors, not just himself, and doing so without charging a high fee for it. He will be mi...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 16, 2019 12:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3752

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

CraigTester wrote: Just for fun, have you ever considered what negative interest rates might do to your 0% forecast? I don't think anyone is going to get rich off of negative interest rate bonds which at maturity provide guaranteed nominal losses. Even if rates do go negative I believe strongly tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 16, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5468

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

Thanks for your responses to my questions, willthrill81. Sounds like you have thought it out well and fully understand the pluses and minuses of your trend following strategy. All strategies have strengths and weaknesses, helping in some market conditions and hurting in other market conditions. Your...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 15, 2019 9:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?
Replies: 40
Views: 3752

Re: Bonds beat S&P500 over last 20 years?

What this demonstrates is that if you carefully cherry-pick the dates you can demonstrate almost anything you want to even over a long 20 year time period. This example does not prove that bonds are likely to outperform stocks. In general the opposite is true and that truth has not been repealed. Th...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 15, 2019 1:01 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Public Vs. Private Hedge Funds
Replies: 13
Views: 1044

Re: Larry Swedroe: Public Vs. Private Hedge Funds

Random Walker wrote:

It looks like the reason is that self interested managers are more interested in increasing AUM than fund performance.
More interested in increasing their own incomes rather than shareholder profits? Astounding!

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 15, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dividends almost Doubled between 2013 and now
Replies: 96
Views: 7242

Re: Dividends almost Doubled between 2013 and now

Do not expect dividends to double again over the next 6 years. The increase in dividends and buybacks was directly caused to two things that are likely one time events having little to do with economic fundamentals other than tax policy. First, as others have pointed out, a significant drop in corpo...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 15, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance
Replies: 110
Views: 5468

Re: Larry Swedroe: Trend Following As Insurance

I have a practical application question for willthrill81 about his trend following strategy in action in the recent past. Please excuse me if you have answered this before, willthrill81, in some other post but I am curious. The market decline last fall climaxed on Christmas Eve with a 19+% drop in t...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 11, 2019 3:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature
Replies: 33
Views: 3389

Re: Larry Swedroe: Post WWII US Returns’ Changing Nature

nedsaid wrote: I want to make it clear that there are limits on everything. Not saying we can just spend and spend and spend and not worry about fiscal responsibility. So far, so good. We just don't know the limits of all of this. How much debt can the US Government create without creating a proble...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 09, 2019 1:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Must value factor investors believe growth stocks will underperform in the long run?
Replies: 28
Views: 1501

Re: Must value factor investors believe growth stocks will underperform in the long run?

JoMoney wrote: The academic historical data does not make as strong a case that there is a "premium" for large value over large growth. The Fama-French data doesn't show any persistent Large-Value "premium" over the last 41 years (value actually slightly underperformed growth over the past 41 years...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed May 08, 2019 12:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait
Replies: 12
Views: 1906

Re: Wes Gray: Value Investing Not Dead, Just Wait

I believe Wes Gray is a highly intelligent and honest scholar of market history. That, unfortunately, does not guarantee investment success. His Value fund, QVAL, contains a relatively small number of stocks that meet very rigid criteria for value with screens for negative MOM and positive QUAL. Tha...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 07, 2019 1:48 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

Re: point of maximal pessimism for international investing

garlandwhizzer wrote: ↑Mon May 06, 2019 8:20 pm. So far Bogle and Buffett have been right for decades--invest only in the US. Thesaints replied: Not really. Since 1994, 25 years ago, both S&P 500 and the US total market indexes have hugely outperformed both the developed market index and the emergi...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 07, 2019 1:19 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Peter Mallouk's Outperform Portfolio vs S&P 500 Index Fund
Replies: 8
Views: 1284

Re: Peter Mallouk's Outperform Portfolio vs S&P 500 Index Fund

1noahone wrote: This goes back to 1994 and it still has S&P500 winning handily: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/bac ... 0&total3=0 Quite clearly Mr Mallouk's outperform portfolio massively underperformed the S&P 500 and did so with greater volatility, greater maximum drawdown, and greater maxim...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue May 07, 2019 12:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries
Replies: 34
Views: 3162

Re: SWAN ETF - 10% Leaps / 90% Treasuries

This strategy has theoretical appeal and looks good in terms of risk/reward on backtesting like HEDGEFUNDIE's which takes a similar approach. Potential problems include the fact that Treasuries are at near record low yields at present in contrast to much of the backtesting past over the last 40 year...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon May 06, 2019 7:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: point of maximal pessimism for international investing
Replies: 66
Views: 5344

point of maximal pessimism for international investing

So far Bogle and Buffett have been right for decades--invest only in the US. International exposure has provided diversification to a US equity portfolio but over most time frames that exposure has reduced total portfolio returns. There is an interesting bifurcation at present. Many, perhaps most, U...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 05, 2019 1:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 6559

Re: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

nedsaid wrote: Final point. Certainly the FAANG (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) stocks have been market darlings. But we aren't seeing the mania that we saw in the very late 1990's. I don't believe we are seeing a mania in the Tech sector or even in the FAANG stocks. Indeed, Apple has sh...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 05, 2019 12:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Factor investing worth it?
Replies: 9
Views: 968

Re: Factor investing worth it?

Either plan will work if you stick to it for the long term.

Garland Whizzer
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 05, 2019 12:52 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular
Replies: 75
Views: 17905

Re: TIPS Ladder Spreadsheets in General & Two in Particular

A rolling TIPS ladder is a bullet proof way to fund a given amount of fixed real income in retirement if you have the massive asset base that allows you to reduce risk to zero by accepting an absurdly low rate of real return for 30 or more years. Most of us either lack that massive asset base. Other...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun May 05, 2019 12:34 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds
Replies: 19
Views: 1606

Re: Diversifying beyond stock and bonds

SimpleGift wrote: I'm increasingly coming to the view that high-quality bonds are the ONLY asset class that ordinary investors likely need to consider these days to diversify the stock risk in a portfolio. The search for diversification benefits among "alternative" asset classes is becoming less an...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 04, 2019 4:09 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5783

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

I am a fundamentals guy and have not been a fan of AMZN for years due to its stratospheric PE, PB, etc.. From a traditional fundamental value perspective it is totally unattractive. However I must admit that AMZN has consistently and massively outperformed while value, both LC and SC, have underperf...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat May 04, 2019 12:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Equity funds for taxable accounts
Replies: 23
Views: 2716

Re: Equity funds for taxable accounts

I think Rick's advice above is right on target. I hold considerable levels of TSM in my personal non-tax advantaged account in addition to fixed income. It's dividends get preferential tax treatment (almost 100% qualified dividends) and it does not generate any capital gains unless you sell it. Furt...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 03, 2019 9:26 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets
Replies: 44
Views: 2391

Re: Dollar cost buying into 30+ CAPE markets

Investing monthly or biweekly into a diversified portfolio over a long multi-decade period of time has been an absolutely sure way to investing success in the US. DCA from your monthly income stream is a great investing plan and I think you should stick with it. The thing that has kept this bull mar...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 03, 2019 3:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?
Replies: 63
Views: 6559

Reversion to the Mean Is Dead?

From an article in Barrons. https://www.barrons.com/articles/reversion-to-the-mean-is-dead-investors-beware-51556912141 The article suggests that technology has altered the markets so much that the old rules like reversion to the mean and value investing using traditional measures of value no longer...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri May 03, 2019 11:58 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion
Replies: 55
Views: 5783

Re: Berkshire buying stake in Amazon - my opinion

BRK.A has at present 530 billion market cap, an incredible amount of money to invest. Over the past 5 years its returns have closely tracked the S&P 500 index, suggesting that asset bloat may be making it very hard for BRK.A to outperform significantly as it did in its earlier days. Is it just asset...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu May 02, 2019 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Share Buybacks — Savior of the U.S. Equity Market?
Replies: 58
Views: 3948

Re: Share Buybacks — Savior of the U.S. Equity Market?

Currently the developed world lives with extremely low/absent economic growth (Japan, Europe) or at best modest/moderate (US) economic growth in spite of unprecedented central bank stimulus for more than a decade. In the absence of robust economic growth something must be helping to drive stock pric...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 30, 2019 12:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DFA, small value, large value performance
Replies: 6
Views: 498

Re: DFA, small value, large value performance

jeffyscott wrote: According to M* today, IJS (S&P 600 value) has 15 year return of 9.13%. Also, the S&P 600 based, Vanguard tax managed small has 10.02% return for 15 years. It seems like S&P magic >> DFA magic Jeffyscott rightly points out that although DFSVX underperformed VTI (Vanguard's TSM ETF...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 29, 2019 12:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration
Replies: 5
Views: 693

Re: Bond Fund Nominal vs Real Average Duration

grabiner wrote: a TIPS yielding 2% less than a Treasury of the same duration is only an attractive investment to investors who expect inflation to be 2% or less Isn't it the other way around? TIPS benefit from unexpected higher inflation due to their inflation adjustment to principal value whereas ...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 28, 2019 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’
Replies: 321
Views: 38519

Re: Jack Bogle Says ‘Avoid Bitcoin Like the Plague’

EnjoyIt wrote: Store of wealth: That is currently what bitcoin is. It is a store of variable wealth due to its rampant volatility. I also agree that until there is a means to regulate it, there will always be manipulation and theft. As a techie I am enjoying watching the bitcoin ride. As an investo...
by garlandwhizzer
Fri Apr 26, 2019 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%
Replies: 14
Views: 1331

Re: 1Q 2019 GDP Growth Strong at 3.2%

CurlyDave wrote: My question was actually more long-term. Changing AA based on one quarter of GDP is not justified, but when predictions (not even data) are for lower market performance that is a topic of discussion -- why wouldn't a year or more of high growth portend better market results? This s...
by garlandwhizzer
Thu Apr 25, 2019 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics
Replies: 106
Views: 5180

Re: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics

Bernstein, whom I believe to be rational and quite knowledgeable about markets, argues that as societies get more politically and economically stable, more wealthy, freer of major wars and major environmental disasters that average returns on investment assets tend to decrease, reflecting lower leve...
by garlandwhizzer
Wed Apr 24, 2019 11:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics
Replies: 106
Views: 5180

Re: Larry Swedroe: Using Valuation Metrics

Larry's article wrote: The bottom line is that 40% explanatory power provides significant information that investors can use to build plans. However, you must not make the mistake of overestimating the forecasting power of the CAPE 10 metric and treat that forecast as what will happen. Instead, it ...
by garlandwhizzer
Tue Apr 23, 2019 11:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence
Replies: 23
Views: 3117

Re: Small Caps vs Large Caps divergence

There are multi-year cycles of small cap outperformance relative to large cap which alternate with multi-year cycles of large cap outperformance relative to small cap. In general SC has been outperforming LC over the last 10 years or so, as measured by Vanguard's SC index versus Vanguard's S&P 500 i...
by garlandwhizzer
Mon Apr 22, 2019 12:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia
Replies: 4
Views: 517

Re: Alpha Architect: Momentum Factor Investing In Russia

Random Walker wrote: The obvious question is whether a behavioral anomaly displayed in 19th century Russia is applicable to us today in the era of nanosecond high frequency algorithmic trading. There are differing points of view on any question about the markets. That's what makes markets, the ongo...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??
Replies: 29
Views: 2319

Re: a percentage decline is MORE than that decline OF YOUR GAINS??

I think one point this post makes has relevance for those who are now in or approaching retirement within say the next 10 years. After a 300% gain in a 10 year bull market it seems sensible now to consider whether your equity/bond split has gotten out of balance and, if so, moving some money from ri...
by garlandwhizzer
Sun Apr 21, 2019 1:23 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey
Replies: 37
Views: 3001

Re: The Annuity Puzzle: Findings from a Recent Survey

Part of the reason for the negative feelings many have about annuity products is the growing conviction among the investing public that financial services institutions are in the business of serving themselves, not their clients and not their society. The Great Recession was largely created by exces...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 20, 2019 9:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fake stock factors
Replies: 3
Views: 553

Re: Fake stock factors

From the article above a direct quote: Unfortunately, academic results won’t necessarily pay off in the real world. Once you control for investing friction—trading costs, fund expenses, and taxes—it is debatable whether any factor confers an advantage over a low-cost index fund that tracks a benchma...
by garlandwhizzer
Sat Apr 20, 2019 11:19 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: American Funds vs Vanguard
Replies: 69
Views: 4242

Re: American Funds vs Vanguard

There are mountains of evidence that active management is in aggregate a losing strategy relative to comparable low cost indexes over long periods of time. Having said that, there are a few cases in which active management has overcome the cost hurdle and outperformed over significant periods of tim...