Search found 1074 matches

by czeckers
Wed May 24, 2023 11:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bicycle Recommendations?
Replies: 70
Views: 4448

Re: Bicycle Recommendations?

If you like the road bike setup, I definitely recommend you look into the "endurance bike" category. It's a road bike with a taller front end so it's a more relaxed, less aggressive position.

Trek Domane is one such bike, I'm sure other brands have similar. The Trek comes in aluminum which would be closer to your price point. I just bought an unused bike from someone who got one but never used it for $1000 on Facebook marketplace.
by czeckers
Wed May 24, 2023 11:26 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attempting self imposed $500 annual discretionary spending challenge
Replies: 235
Views: 20176

Re: Attempting self imposed $500 annual discretionary spending challenge

I did a similar thing for the 1st 3 years working out of school, but with a monthly budget.

At the start of the month I'd take out $40 cash and put it in my wallet. That was my discretionary budget. Worked very well.
by czeckers
Wed Dec 28, 2022 12:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Cruises - thoughts? [with little kids]
Replies: 17
Views: 2029

Re: Cruises - thoughts? [with little kids]

Have done multiple cruises with kids newborn and up, all pre-Covid so I can speak to the general experience.

Different cruise lines have very different degrees of activities and entertainment for kids. I agree with the above post that Royal Caribbean and Disney do a good job. MSC is also pretty good though not quite on the same level (but kids under 11 were free so...)

Compared to other vacations, the fact that they have drop off centers and kid focused activities actually makes for a pretty good vacation for the adults too.

My kids have always looked forward to cruising.
by czeckers
Wed Sep 07, 2022 5:30 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Attic Insulation benefits.
Replies: 115
Views: 12979

Re: Attic Insulation benefits.

A home energy audit would give you the information you're looking for.

The optimal way to reduce attic energy losses is to pull out all the old insulation, spray 1 inch of closed cell foam which will airseal the attic, and then add cellulose or fiberglass to desired R value.

The home energy audit should help you determine whether it will be cost-effective to do that.

Some utility companies and some states offer free energy audits.
by czeckers
Mon Jul 25, 2022 11:23 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used car prices declining
Replies: 56
Views: 6497

Re: Used car prices declining

jebmke wrote:
Until passengers (former drivers) are indemnified by the manufacturer humans will always be in the loop.
That is an interesting point. I hadn't considered that.
by czeckers
Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:58 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used car prices declining
Replies: 56
Views: 6497

Re: Used car prices declining

People throw around the term "crisis" way too often these days. If the car loan can't be paid, the asset gets repossessed (as you mentioned). End of story. There won't be (nor should there be) any bailout or massive intervention here that requires the attention of Joe Sixpack. I agree that's it's difficult to imagine this causing a market shock the way the subprime mortgages did. Very different magnitude. However, everyone thought housing was safe since the bad loans were still backed by the houses themselves. Time will tell how big of a problem this will be. I am confident in speculating that the current price level for used cars is unsustainable, and a wave of repossessions may in fact be a catalyst for the bursting of the bubb...
by czeckers
Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio
Replies: 253
Views: 22012

Re: Commodities never belonged in your portfolio

My commodity position has grown from 10% of my portfolio to 15%. Meanwhile, the bond portion has shrunk from 20% to 15% of my portfolio.

Small cap value is up while international is down.

Since commodities/bonds hit their rebalance bands, I put orders in to rebalance the entire portfolio.
by czeckers
Sun Jul 24, 2022 9:05 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Used car prices declining
Replies: 56
Views: 6497

Used car prices declining

Kelly black book data shows that wholesale used car prices (prices at used car dealer auctions) have decreased 3 weeks in a row across all types of cars and trucks. Also, the number of repossessions has increased over the same time frame. If you're in the market for a used car, you might consider holding off for a few months. Conversely, if you're thinking about selling a used car, consider acting sooner than later to get top dollar. People have been raising concerns about a subprime crisis in the car loan business for a number of years. With increased food and fuel prices, it is plausible that folks are having difficulty making payments on their car loans, hence the increased repossessions. If there is a subprime car loan bubble, we may be...
by czeckers
Tue Jul 05, 2022 11:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5250
Views: 906656

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-11.8 YTD as of end of June/2nd quarter

Getting a bonus, will be funneling all toward investments in taxable.
by czeckers
Thu Jun 30, 2022 12:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Vanguard brokerage and recurring variable amount contributions
Replies: 1
Views: 183

Vanguard brokerage and recurring variable amount contributions

I have a question for the collective Vanguard experience on this forum. I have opened several Roth IRAs for my kids through Vanguard brokerage. They have 10% of their paycheck deposited which goes into their MM sweep account. I would like all of it to go into a Target Date fund. I have to use the sweep account and cannot contribute directly to the Target fund because that's how brokerage accounts seem to work. The issue is this. The amount they deposit, because it is a percentage, varies month to month depending on how many paychecks they get that months and how many hours they work. I am able to set a fixed dollar amount to transfer from the sweep account into the Target Fund. But because the amount in the sweep account varies from month t...
by czeckers
Sun Jun 12, 2022 10:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Recommendations for Travel in Europe
Replies: 23
Views: 1999

Re: Recommendations for Travel in Europe

Prague is an excellent destination. Can link with Vienna in same trip.
by czeckers
Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bunk Bed Advice
Replies: 30
Views: 2530

Re: Bunk Bed Advice

I also have an awesome fire truck bunk bed for sale in VA if anyone is interested. 😃
by czeckers
Sun Jun 12, 2022 2:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Bunk Bed Advice
Replies: 30
Views: 2530

Re: Bunk Bed Advice

Beds are easy to build out of 2x4 and 2x6 stock.

Could have a super stable bed for under $200 in materials.

Here is an example:

https://www.ana-white.com/woodworking-p ... ide-street

I really like the ana-white plans because they are free and made with ease of building in mind. She has others as well if you Google "ana-white bunk bed"
by czeckers
Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Here's how some inflation "hedges" have done so far this year
Replies: 52
Views: 5695

Re: Here's how some inflation "hedges" have done so far this year

Commodity futures have been the clear winner this time around.

I too am puzzled why there isn't a bigger change in the price of gold.
by czeckers
Fri Jun 10, 2022 3:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!
Replies: 2297
Views: 258016

Re: Bonds: What Are They Doing? Are They Doing Things?? Let's Find Out!

In a free market, all investments are generally accurately priced given all the current available information.

The price will change only with unexpected news.
by czeckers
Fri Jun 10, 2022 9:00 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Teachers: what are your best personal finance tips?
Replies: 180
Views: 36098

Re: Teachers: what are your best personal finance tips?

There is a well-written book by Andrew Hallam called "Millionaire Teacher," written from the perspective of a teacher who managed to accumulate over $1M.

Interesting guy. Spends a lot of time traveling the world and blogging about being an ex-pat in various developing nations.

I find his writing to be quite insightful.
by czeckers
Wed Jun 08, 2022 4:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5250
Views: 906656

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

-4.09% I have to say I ran your portfolio through Portfolio Visualizer because I was a bit skeptical that your losses could be sub-5% for an 80/20 portfolio. Wow, it's amazing how much a 10% slice of Commodities helped. Also, SCV to a lesser degree. Our 60/40 (ish) portfolio is down 10-11%, with an assortment of ST and IT bond funds. The commodities were a fortuitous addition 2yrs ago when I saw Vanguard opened VCMDX. There was a lot of excitement about them around 2007/8 when they were in a bubble. Dropped 90%!! between then and May 2019. I figured it was a good bet. In retrospect, 20% would have been better :twisted: Diversification works both ways. It's been rough watching my portfolio lag the S&P 500 for the last 13 years due to th...
by czeckers
Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:41 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Is it wise to buy car maintenance plans
Replies: 75
Views: 6641

Re: Is it wise to buy car maintenance plans

That reminds me, just got a phone call that my car's warranty has expired...

:D
by czeckers
Thu Jun 02, 2022 9:38 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Downsizing life: Family of 4 moving into tiny house
Replies: 144
Views: 19420

Re: Downsizing life: Family of 4 moving into tiny house

Looks like overall you are in pretty good shape. I certainly would set aside some money for the kids college educations. Maybe not 529s if you're not sure whether they'll go or not, but have the money set aside somewhere. You can always use it for other things. Downsizing is always cool and a great way to improve cash flow. Not sure how you come up with $40K/yr cost of living in tiny house. Is that rent for the parking spot? Definitely be aware of other fees such as septic hookup. The savings between renting and living in the tiny house can disappear quickly if there are costs that you didn't anticipate. If you are handy, a good option could be to buy a fixer-upper to be your permanent home and do most of the work yourself. Certainly a thou...
by czeckers
Thu Jun 02, 2022 8:29 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Diversification Value of Alternatives
Replies: 90
Views: 10965

Re: The Diversification Value of Alternatives

Valuations matter As with any investment, alternatives are great as long as you buy them at a good price. Unfortunately, recency bias and FOMO seem to drive a lot of the discussions here and presumably people's investing decisions. Two years ago, after a long bull run for large cap growth, pretty much everything else looked cheap. But it's hard to abandon what has been a winning strategy of investing primarily in large caps via S&P 500 and even to a lesser extent TSM (which is still dominated by large caps), all very reasonable ways to invest, and invest in areas that have been relative losers in the last decade. Where people get burned in alternatives, is when they start looking at them only after they've done really well. At that poin...
by czeckers
Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:57 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

Amazing how things can change in 2 years.

VCMDX: 2020: +5.07%
2021: +35.23%
YTD: +32.47%

GLD on the other hand has been disappointing so far: -3.26% in May, only +0.11% YTD, -4.06% last 12 months

I'm not sure how to reconcile these two. VCMDX is more directly linked to Oil prices so the run up seems to parallel the rise in energy prices. However, GLD lagging makes me wonder whether people are underestimating the impact of the current inflationary environment?

Might still be a good time to load up on GLD.

I know not very Bogleheadish of me, but I do believe valuations matter.
by czeckers
Thu Jun 02, 2022 6:34 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Movies for 10 year old
Replies: 70
Views: 5484

Re: Movies for 10 year old

Many excellent recommendations:

I'd add:

Hugo
Sabrina
Yours, Mine, and Ours
Willy Wonka
Phantom of the Opera (Movie version is quite well done)


Gremlins is essentially a horror flick, I watched it with my kids and it scared some of them quite badly. I would hold off on that one until 13-14yo.
Remember, that's the movie that caused the PG-13 rating to be created.
by czeckers
Mon May 30, 2022 9:43 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: How do you choose a family doctor?
Replies: 75
Views: 6362

Re: How do you choose a family doctor?

Small hands... that's the key for men after a certain age.

Kidding of course, but just a little.
by czeckers
Mon May 30, 2022 9:37 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Insulation question for ranch cabin
Replies: 17
Views: 1868

Re: Insulation question for ranch cabin

The 1 inch of closed cell foam provides an air seal which is very important for the thermal performance of a home.

After that, use the cheapest R-value product in your market with consideration given to products your builder has more experience with. Getting the details right matters. No issues using 2 different foams, but dense packed cellulose and fiberglass are often cheaper for the same insulation value.

I would definitely recommend 2x6 construction for the deeper wall cavity/higher insulation. Also consider an external insulation layer such as foam board or Rockwool.
by czeckers
Sun May 08, 2022 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: anyone buying in this market?
Replies: 177
Views: 21785

Re: anyone buying in this market?

Automatic deposit every month.

Out of sight, out of mind.
by czeckers
Sun May 08, 2022 5:42 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your actual - IN REALITY - average annual return?
Replies: 64
Views: 8909

Re: What is your actual - IN REALITY - average annual return?

8.7% for last 10 years.

Recent market drop skewing results downward.
by czeckers
Sat Apr 30, 2022 1:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]
Replies: 5250
Views: 906656

Re: What are you up YTD? [Year To Date]

Just checked for first time since New Year. Pleasantly surprised that I'm down just 0.6% YTD.

Portfolio in signature line.

The commodity slice has definitely helped in the last year. It's grown to 15% of the total pie. I do annual rebalancing on Halloween (because it's supposed to be a little scary) so am letting it ride for now.

-K
by czeckers
Sat Apr 09, 2022 8:10 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: How do you monitor your Stocks and Bonds portfolio?
Replies: 67
Views: 7022

Re: How do you monitor your Stocks and Bonds portfolio?

I log in to my accounts once per year. Enter data into an excel spreadsheet that checks whether I need to rebalance.

Frequent monitoring may be detrimental to your financial health,
by czeckers
Sun Apr 03, 2022 7:44 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Walk-up Or Walk-out Basement
Replies: 44
Views: 5590

Re: Walk-up Or Walk-out Basement

I can't think of any situation where a walk up basement would be preferred other than for security reasons.

They are less prone to flooding. Easier to finish. Give you better access. Easier to add bedrooms (egress).
by czeckers
Wed Aug 25, 2021 12:23 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Do REITs (funds) provide better diversification and more return over international?
Replies: 36
Views: 4611

Re: Do REITs (funds) provide better diversification and more return over international?

You have to be careful with backtesting. The results tend to favor investments that have done well recently. However, recent outperformed tend not to be outperformes going forward. For example, run a back test ending in 2000. It will tell you that large cap tech stocks had done well and that REITs and international were pretty much losers. However, they were the clear outperformers in the 2000s along with small cap value and a backtest ending in 2010 would show those to be the best investments. But since then, large growth has been the clear winner. You see a pattern? It's best to find an asset mix you can live with regardless of what's going on in the markets. I recommend at least some international. Ignore large segments of the investing ...
by czeckers
Tue Jul 20, 2021 3:44 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Refinance Mega Thread
Replies: 12862
Views: 1276696

Re: Refinance Mega Thread

Just locked in a 10-year refi at 1.75%. 0 points.

Closing fees $2700 on a $500K mortgage.
by czeckers
Wed Dec 16, 2020 10:44 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Snow shovel \ snow sled shovel recommendations
Replies: 26
Views: 2391

Re: Snow shovel \ snow sled shovel recommendations

Make sure the shovel you buy has a metal leading edge.
by czeckers
Thu Nov 26, 2020 10:56 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Mortgage Payoff goes against every fiber of my being
Replies: 72
Views: 8851

Re: Mortgage Payoff goes against every fiber of my being

You could consider refinancing your existing mortgages. I just refinanced at 2.125% for 15 years.
by czeckers
Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:39 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: What is your percentage of debt to NW?
Replies: 203
Views: 20333

Re: What is your percentage of debt to NW?

This is a weird question to me since debt is already included in the net worth calculation.

For many people, a home mortgage is their largest debt, but it is attached to an asset. A net worth calculation rightfully looks at how much equity you have in that home. As long as you have positive equity, and your cash flow is ok while still maintaining a healthy savings rate, then the percentage of debt relative to total net worth is probably irrelevant. Someone starting out in their 20s will have a different net worth than someone in their 50s.
by czeckers
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:43 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a knife set
Replies: 100
Views: 9246

Re: Looking for a knife set

Preferred knife sharpening system is a whole other can of worms. I've had good results with the Spyderco sharp maker.
by czeckers
Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:31 am
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Looking for a knife set
Replies: 100
Views: 9246

Re: Looking for a knife set

Victorinox (makers of swiss army knives) makes excellent kitchen knives in their fibrox pro line. They are a good value for the money. They hold an edge far longer than any of my other knives. The fibrox handles, though not as pretty as the wooden ones on say, a set of Henckles, are nonslip and give you a good grip. 10-piece set with wooden knife block on Amazon for $250. Make sure you get the pro series.
by czeckers
Tue Sep 22, 2020 1:24 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Solar - after 1 year the results are in.
Replies: 64
Views: 8330

Re: Solar - after 1 year the results are in.

We installed solar on our previous house. I was pleasantly surprised at how accurate the estimates of the annual solar production were. That was my big concern -- how do you know it's going to produce X kwh? What if it's cloudy? The annual production varied very little year to year.

We sold the house in the spring. My experience was that most potential buyers have no idea of the financial impact of having solar and they are nervous about having something they don't understand and thus don't account for it in their offer.

With respect to maintenance, we literally did nothing with the solar. It just sits there spinning our electric meter backwards on sunny days. No maintenance required.
by czeckers
Mon Aug 10, 2020 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF
Replies: 103
Views: 12134

Re: Broad commodity investing with iShares CMDY ETF

Commodity funds are a touchy subject around here for sure. Having been a member here for some time, I see that there is a lot of recency bias when it comes to non-TSM and non-total bond holdings. When commodities were having their outsized returns, there was a lot of discussion about what a great diversifier they were. Now that commodity funds have dropped almost 90% they are persona nongrata. As always, investments are usually a good buy after a period of poor performance than after a period of stellar performance. The big exception is of the asset in question is on it's way toward extinction. Personally I think it's a great time to get into Commodity funds now. They are relatively cheap compared to past prices. Manufacturers and consumers...
by czeckers
Fri Jun 05, 2020 8:42 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?
Replies: 123
Views: 10108

Re: Anybody do any GOOD timing the market?

I rebalanced back to my desired AA 4 weeks. Ended up selling treasuries and buying SCV.
by czeckers
Fri May 22, 2020 3:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Mortgage: home town bank with slightly higher rate vs large bank with lower rate?
Replies: 7
Views: 1016

Re: Mortgage: home town bank with slightly higher rate vs large bank with lower rate?

Most small banks and oftentimes large banks too will sell your mortgage to someone else. As a result, the company servicing your loan won't be the one that you originated the loan anyway. Go for the cheapest loan you can find.

Bankrate.com is a good place to start
by czeckers
Fri May 22, 2020 2:55 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What to look for when buying a table saw?
Replies: 53
Views: 4870

Re: What to look for when buying a table saw?

Definitely recommend the Saw Stop saw for a novice woodworker if you're going to buy one. HOWEVER, when starting out with woodworking, that's pretty far down the road as far as purchases go. I would recommend a good mitersaw and stand first. If you're looking to cut plywood, a circular saw with a track such as the universal track made by Kreg, or a dedicated track saw such as the Makita will actually be a lot easier to use, be safer and cheaper. Plywood sheets on a table saw require a good sized outfeed table to handle safely. Google "woodshop under $1000" or similar to get an idea how to get started. Ana White has 100s if not 1000s of plans for projects that can be made with just a few basic tools that are a great place to start ...
by czeckers
Tue May 19, 2020 2:30 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Vault Safe in the attic; welded, anyone ?
Replies: 78
Views: 5534

Re: Vault Safe in the attic; welded, anyone ?

Most safes have an option of bolting it to the floor. That would foil the casual thief.

Hiding the safe is beneficial too. A thief can't take what they don't know about.
by czeckers
Tue May 19, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.
Replies: 264
Views: 27767

Re: What is your most luxury/expensive hobby.

Making babies. Boy they're expensive!

:mrgreen:
by czeckers
Wed May 13, 2020 3:09 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Is it worth buying an infant car seat for each car.
Replies: 71
Views: 4370

Re: Is it worth buying an infant car seat for each car.

Get a base for each car and car seat pops in and out. Viola!
by czeckers
Wed May 13, 2020 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

I agree with many of the points made above. Commodity funds are dominated by oil/energy. We've seen contango in those markets given a decade of flat or falling oil prices. With such low current demand, storage is definitely an issue. We are currently in an environment of low to non-existent inflation.

However, do we realistically expect this to continue indefinitely?
by czeckers
Tue May 12, 2020 5:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Re: Anyone considering Commodity futures?

Right now, any back test including Commodities would look outright terrible. The asset class has lost 90% of it's value from its peak 10+ years ago.

However, I can't find anything else that looks as cheap right now.
by czeckers
Tue May 12, 2020 8:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone considering Commodity futures?
Replies: 17
Views: 1474

Anyone considering Commodity futures?

Funds investing in commodity futures were all the rage 2006 to mid-2008 due to their recent run of good performance at the time.

PIMCO's PCRIX fund topped out at a share price around $42 in July 2008. Since then, the price has fallen to (gasp) $4.41.

It was certainly a lesson in avoiding performance chasing (as I believe we are now seeing in the large cap/large growth area).

I'm curious how many are interested in buying PCRIX or similar now?

Interestingly, last year Vanguard opened a new fully collateralized Commodity Futures fund (VCMDX) investing in the Bloomberg Commodity Index.

-K