Bogleheads.org

czeckers

Of course there is a crash coming... the problem is no one knows when nor its magnitude. In 1996, Alan Greenspan warned about "Irrational exuberance" because signs of a market bubble were already evident. Had you gotten out of the market at that time, you would have missed a 140% rise in your stock ...

czeckers

Not I. Investing is quite simple: Set a reasonable asset allocation, make regular contributions, rebalance every once in a while back to your original AA if things get too far out of whack. However, it is not easy: the emotional responses of greed and fear can be quite strong and will push you to do...

czeckers

You are of course correct. In the future I'll choose my words more carefully. Having said that, I still stand behind my primary point which is that rising interest rates benefit long-term bond investors.

czeckers

The markets can remain irrational far longer than you can remain solvent.

czeckers

It's very straightforward. An example is the popular three fund portfolio: Total US market stock fund Total International market stock fund Total US bond fund Viola! No cash. If stocks go down and you feel you want to take advantage of the buying opportunity, simply rebalance by selling some of the ...

czeckers

People don't take into account that while the dollar value of a bond fund goes down in a rising rate environment, as bonds are sold and new ones bought by the fund, the newer bonds have a higher yield. Eventually the higher yield makes up for the initial loss in value. The amount of time it takes is...

czeckers

AA is in my signature line.

80/20 stocks/bonds. 50/50 US/international with small/value tilt. Only high quality bonds to offset higher portfolio risk.

At this point, my contributions still exceed portfolio growth so I can be fairly aggressive.

czeckers

Assuming you have a balanced portfolio of stock and bond funds, the stock portion of your portfolio will lose value during a market crash. If you own high quality bonds (i.e. US treasuries), their value usually goes up. (Lesser quality bonds such as corporates and junk tend to go down with the stock...

czeckers

In my retirement accounts which receive monthly contributions, I direct incoming money to whichever fund is lagging the most behind its desired percent allocation. I use rebalancing bands and would rebalance the entire portfolio only if an asset is lagging by 20% relative to its allocation (this has...

czeckers

We were 100% online for a while, but ended up splitting the difference and having both an online bank account and smaller account at a local brick and mortar bank. We use the online bank for most of our financial needs. However we use cash fairly often, and have had issues with limited ATM access. T...

czeckers

If been thinking about the premise of the original post for a couple of days. I think the difference between taking advantage of really bad days and really good days is this: It depends. It depends on what phase you are in now. If you are in the accumulation phase, then your normal pattern is puttin...

czeckers

International equities have higher dividend yields because they are priced lower than US equities (as measured by PE ratio for example). It's not just the dividend yield that makes international equities look attractive. I'm not saying sell everything and go all in on international, but it may be a ...

czeckers

Well, Mr. and Mrs. Wellington, the Vanguard Wellington fund helped get you to your goal. That's fantastic!

czeckers

If you look at returns of portfolios of varying percentages of stocks/bonds. Adding even a little bit of stock to an all bond portfolio reduces risk and improves returns. As a rule of thumb, ~20% stocks should be the bottom limit for stock allocation. Remember that bonds can lost money for a long ti...

czeckers

Keep in mind that this tool should be used with extreme caution. There is the temptation to try various portfolios and decide on the one that has the best results in the backtest. However, past returns do not predict future returns. Oftentimes, the results are skewed in favor of whatever asset class...

czeckers

A 70 year old male has an average life expectancy of 14 years -- less if he's a smoker of has some underlying health conditions such as diabetes, heart disease, etc. Even if he lives to be 100, that's only 30 years. He does not have to live off of dividends alone and can safely start dipping into th...

czeckers

Congratulations!

Out of curiosity, do you own shares of the VG Wellington fund?

czeckers

If you're buying in an area that will have continuing rapid appreciation of home prices, then yes, buying the most house you can afford can payoff handsomly. The problem is that, as we learned in 2008, housing prices don't always keep going up. Many people bought into HCOL areas only to find themsel...

czeckers

Oh... just a few accounts here: Checking/Debit card for everyday household expenses Checking/Debit card for charity Savings for all automatic bill pay Savings for <$1000 items that go over budget (car repairs, house maintenance, etc.) Savings for school tuition Each child has checking and savings ac...

czeckers

Had to look it up. 12.1% YTD. AA is in my signature line.

Value tilt and REITs have been a drag on the portfolio since 2009. International had also been a drag but has had positive tracking error in the last year or two. This is life when you tilt away from the market portfolio.

czeckers

Congrats!! If you saw the second comma on Vanguard, does that mean you did it not counting home equity? That's what I was thinking: You must have hit the $1M net worth milestone a while back. I do agree that it does somehow feel better seeing the two commas on one account rather than at the bottom ...

czeckers

JoMoney wrote: ↑
Wed Sep 27, 2017 2:19 pm
These bull runs can be bitter sweet. How many new highs can we hit before a something drags us down?

Since the markets go up most of the time, new highs shouldn't be all that uncommon.

czeckers

Depending on the size of the portfolio, his withdrawal rate, and his life expectancy, 100% stocks might be entirely reasonable.

czeckers

The chart assumes you replace your entire income in retirement. Truth is that once house is paid off, kids out of house and through college, living expenses drop significantly. If you make $250K per year and save 20%, the table says you reach FI in 37 years. But if you can be comfortable as empty ne...

czeckers

Lego Mindstorm got my so hooked. Daughter was never interested.

czeckers

For $2500, I'd definitely do it. We've purchased two homes and had foam insulation added to the attic in both. For a retrofit, you have to take out old insulation so it's much better up front during construction. Adding an inch of foam topped with cellulose reduced our heating/cooling bills by 25-35...

czeckers

I think having a job in college and no allowance is a great idea. People who have to work their studies in around work or athletics tend to be more focused and do better. Having to work for your spending money provides valuable life lessons. I believe in the Millionaire Next Door book, what you are ...

czeckers

BTW, it looks like you are living on a relatively small percentage of your income so tax-deferred accounts are great for you. You get to save on taxes at your current marginal rate. With two 6-figure incomes that's a good bit of tax savings. However, if your expenditures in retirement will be lower ...

czeckers

Assuming she is not out for the entire year of 2017, your wife will still have some income for the tax year so she'll be able to contribute to her retirement accounts. 457 accounts are slightly different depending on whether the employer is a government employer or a non-profit. I know for a non-pro...

czeckers

Driving about 11 hours each way -- planned a vacation around it. Saw the one in the 1990's but didn't have glasses so couldn't really look at the sun but it did get eerily dark and the birds looked very confused. Looks like the 2024 will go right over my house. Pity that April tends to be very cloud...

czeckers

Simple question but complicated answer. As many have mentioned above, the monetary value varies from location to location depending on amount of sunshine and arrangements with the utility company. The big downside is that they need to be removed and put back up if the roof needs work. However, they ...

czeckers

The math is fairly simple: cost of system vs annual cost of electric use will give you a basic idea of payback time. However, there are a few considerations: -It's certainly more compelling the more expensive your electricity is making the payback period shorter. -You have to consider the cost of fi...

czeckers

Depends on the company. Some companies want to make sure you have maximum auto insurance before issuing umbrella policy. Amica dropped my umbrella policy when I changed my auto to another insurance carrier.

czeckers

I think there are many advantages to induction cook tops. If you don't have NG anywhere else in the house, then no need to plumb that it. It can make pots/pans heat up fast. Fine tuning of heat is great. Easy to clean. Stove surface doesn't get too hot. Cons: You need to have ferrous cookware so you...

czeckers

Thank you for the well thought out reply. Very useful.

czeckers

Investing should be boring. Just slow, steady, measured progress toward a goal.

-K

czeckers

My 14yo son is interested in trying to earn some income by writing apps. He's already written some for his own use as well as for our family so he definitely has the computer coding ability. This is certainly outside my realm of expertise. I'm wondering if it's as simple as just uploading it to the ...

czeckers

Another way to look at it: $1M invested in a balanced portfolio of stocks/bonds gives you a safe withdrawal rate of 3-4% (probably closer to 3% if you're looking at a 40 year time frame). That's $30-40,000 per year, increasing with inflation. There is also some risk of running out of money. You will...

czeckers

The benefits of rebalancing (or lack thereof) depend on the expected returns of the asset classes you are rebalancing between. Rebalancing between stocks and bonds which have very different expected returns is generally a losing proposition. For the most part, you will be selling shares of the highe...

czeckers

With respect to looking for the accelerated portfolio growth, the first 10 years are just brute force savings -- very little contribution from portfolio growth. Years 10-15 growth starts to match your contribution. Years 15-20, growth outpaces your contributions.

czeckers

Do you include rebalancing? I just ran a portfolio of 50/50 US large cap value/growth vs US large cap with annual rebalancing and the CAGR was 10.69 vs 10.17 for the time period 1972-Mar 2017. (portfoliovisualizer) You would expect some rebalancing bonus if you rebalanced between two asset classes t...

czeckers

We have in-ceiling speakers throughout the house. Don't use them very much. For TV watching the sound feels like it is coming from the ceilings and not from the action on screen.

Wireless speakers are more flexible.

-K

czeckers

A big requirement for me is high energy efficiency. A net-zero home would be ideal. If paid for with cash, then the ongoing costs would be just taxes and water.

czeckers

80/20

czeckers

Given that he is asking you to go with him and to either relocate or to do a very long commute, that makes starting the negotiation very easy. "Boy, this is an exciting opportunity, but it would be a tremendous sacrifice for me and my family. What type of compensation do you have in mind?"...

czeckers

You have to understand that the financial side of medicine is intentionally opaque. Large practice groups and hospitals are gobbling up all the independent providers, small groups, and small hospitals. Everything is now controlled at top administrative levels by non-clinicians. Billing is completely...

czeckers

Highest peak in the Dominican Republic is just over 10,000ft. However, I don't think the travel experience to the DR would be the same as Hawaii.

-K

czeckers

High savings rate.

czeckers

$1888.88

czeckers

I think of perpetual withdrawal rates when I think of endowments. 60 years is a long time, but it is definitely finite. Add to that that there is a probability that one will die earlier than expected and, for me, the extra sacrifices to fund a retirement at 2.3% rather than 3.25 or 3.5% simply aren'...

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