Search found 3551 matches

by afan
Fri Jul 20, 2018 1:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?
Replies: 126
Views: 8647

Re: Should I Dump a Pile of Money on Young Son?

Bsteiner gave you the start of what an estate planning attorney will say when you consult one. You should meet with such an expert and make plans. You need to consider your likely estate tax exposure. You say you will likely live another 30 years, and I hope that happens. But you could die tomorrow....
by afan
Fri Jul 20, 2018 12:54 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Bond Ladder Managed Account
Replies: 31
Views: 1463

Re: Bond Ladder Managed Account

If you are worried about holding bonds when interest rates rise, then shift to shorter term bonds. This would apply to bond funds or bond ladders. If you hold individual bonds and interest rates rise then the market price of your bonds will go down. If you were to sell during that time, you would ha...
by afan
Thu Jul 19, 2018 7:39 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Watch Collection Reasonable or Unreasonable or Irresponsible?
Replies: 102
Views: 4209

Re: Watch Collection Reasonable or Unreasonable or Irresponsible?

OK, I'll say it. You should sell most or all of this collection. These sorts of items have volatile prices. When the economy does well people feel comfortable and have more money, so they bid up the prices of collectibles. When the economy turns down the prices crash, since no one needs to own expen...
by afan
Thu Jul 19, 2018 10:04 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm
Replies: 12
Views: 1104

Re: Decrease International Growth Fund Admiral and buy Total International Stock Index Adm

There are excellent data that the advantages of indexing apply to international funds. Moving from active to index funds is usually good. I assume these are in a tax favored account so there will be no capital gains tax? If you have to pay more than a trivial amount of tax it may not be worth it. I ...
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:55 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Irrevocable Trusts
Replies: 5
Views: 1166

Re: Irrevocable Trusts

The usual etiquette is to combine your questions into one and start a thread on that. Or start separate threads for each question. Changing the topic in the middle of the thread is confusing. Financial questions are probably better lumped so people can respond knowing your overall financial situatio...
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:48 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wills
Replies: 54
Views: 2781

Re: Wills

I see what you are saying but I don't see how I can stop this, short of not leaving him any money. Yes we have individual assets. My retirement account, his retirement account. We are both each others beneficiary. I have a car in my name. He has a car in his name. Most of our money is in retirement...
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:28 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wills
Replies: 54
Views: 2781

Re: Wills

skp wrote:
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:19 pm

How would having a written will prevent the above?
Simply having a will would not. Having a will with the right provisions would avoid almost all of these problems. Having assets pass via a trust rather than a will would eliminate the need for an executor and whatever requirements that involved.
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 4:15 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wills
Replies: 54
Views: 2781

Re: Wills

Do you want the childrens inheritance to go to an ex spouse instead? If your spouse outlives you, would you want their new spouse to get everything leaving your kids with nothing? Would you want the new spouse's kids to get what you are now thinking will go to your children? If your spouse outlives ...
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 3:50 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buy a vacation home while renting
Replies: 61
Views: 3540

Re: Buy a vacation home while renting

It easily could make sense to rent rather than buy your primary residence. Depends on the relative cost of real estate vs renting. It could make sense to rent your residence at the same time that you buy an investment property. Buying a piece of real estate with that huge student debt does not make ...
by afan
Wed Jul 18, 2018 6:50 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Wills
Replies: 54
Views: 2781

Re: Wills

Although there is a good argument for choosing a larger firm for continuity, keep in mind that the firm continuing does not assure that the estate planning practice will remain. I knew a family in which the surviving parent had her estate plan done well by a partner at a largish firm. But over the y...
by afan
Tue Jul 17, 2018 5:12 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8631

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

A positive real return does not "trail inflation." According to Portfolio Visualizer, since 1978 tax-exempt short-term bonds have had an annualized real return of .33%. I'd say that's been a good inflation hedge over the last 40 years, and declining interest rates over most of that period didn't of...
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8631

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

Real returns to cash have been less than 1%, more like 0.5% over long term. But that is pretax. Although the return only serves to match or very slightly beat inflation, those returns are taxable. After tax, one is behind. I could not find information on long term real returns to muni money market f...
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 5:30 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?
Replies: 99
Views: 8927

Re: What rate of return are you using for retirement projections?

I use a variety of real return estimates. From "historical" to "bad case". Bad cases include things like stagflation or severe persistent drops in the stock market. For simplicity, my base case starts by giving stocks a 50% haircut, then historical returns from there. This lets me avoid picking rate...
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:30 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters
Replies: 108
Views: 8631

Re: Are Bonds Always Safe? — A Second Look at U.S. Portfolio Disasters

The logic of bonds is not that they are always safe. It is that 1. They are much less volatile than stocks. This means that mixing in bonds reduces the volatility of the overall portfolio. 2. They have low correlation with stocks. This means that, on average, drops in stocks are not accompanied by s...
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:18 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1614

Re: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

According to Vanguard
Vanguard Brokerage does not receive compensation for directing order flow in
equity securities.
https://personal.vanguard.com/pdf/v719.pdf

They do it for options, but not many people should be trading options.
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please
Replies: 30
Views: 2954

Re: Fidelity Portfolio Advice Please

First question is how committed are you to Fidelity? You say that there are offices nearby, but as you read below, consider how much you are willing to pay for this. You only need three funds: A broad US stock market fund. Ideally, pick a fund that attempts to track the entire US market. You need an...
by afan
Mon Jul 16, 2018 12:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients
Replies: 24
Views: 1614

Re: Brokers sell ETF order flow used to trade against clients

The only ETFs I buy are highly liquid with one cent bid ask spreads. I don't see a reason to buy anything else. I suppose HFT outfits could make a profit inside that $0.01 spread by trading so many shares that it is worth the effort. But the effect on me appears invisible. I still face a one cent sp...
by afan
Sat Jul 14, 2018 11:40 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Inherited retirement account
Replies: 12
Views: 1510

Re: Inherited retirement account

The simplest thing would be for her to take it as her own IRA and take out the RMDs based on her age. If she ABSOLUTELY, POSITIVELY, NO POSSIBLE WAY THIS COULD BE WRONG, will NEVER need the money then she can CONSIDER disclaiming. Once she disclaims, the money is gone. I would have been extremely un...
by afan
Fri Jul 13, 2018 4:36 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Living Revocable Trust - conveyance of assets
Replies: 11
Views: 770

Re: Living Revocable Trust - conveyance of assets

For most of your assets retitling is so easy it would be silly to pay someone to do it. There will be forms for bank accounts, brokerage accounts, etc. If you have real estate in the trust then that would require a change with your local municipality. How much it costs and how hard it is depends on ...
by afan
Thu Jul 12, 2018 5:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: estate trust for kids for a brokerage account
Replies: 2
Views: 317

Re: estate trust for kids for a brokerage account

Well, tough to satisfy all those desires. I gather this money is separate than your savings for college. Is that correct? If it is college savings, then a 529 would be a great idea. If you want to own the money yourself, then you don't need to do anything special. Save, invest the money and spend it...
by afan
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:43 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What kind of tax professional to look for?
Replies: 14
Views: 828

Re: What kind of tax professional to look for?

But this is really a pure tax question, so I agree with the suggestion of an enrolled agent. Experts in tax, many CPA's are not, cheaper than lawyers or accountants. It's worth noting that there is no requirement than an enrolled agent know anything about state and local tax. They are primarily tes...
by afan
Thu Jul 12, 2018 1:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS
Replies: 352
Views: 11823

Re: COMING SOON: BOGLEHEADS PODCASTS

I don't have suggestions for a title. interviewing a number of people from the world of finance and investing would be great. But I would love to hear a good amount of Rick's thoughts on investing, without the need to accommodate someone else in the podcast. We all get a lot out of Rick's posts, and...
by afan
Thu Jul 12, 2018 7:14 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable
Replies: 6
Views: 1089

Re: US Treasuries vs Munis in taxable

According to Portfolio Visualizer April 2001-present VWIUX had higher return and higher Sharpe ratio than BMBIX. VWIUX had a very slightly higher standard deviation, by 0.07%. Negligible. BMBIX had a worst year drawdown of -1.19%, slightly better than VWIUX worst year of -1.48%. This period included...
by afan
Wed Jul 11, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What kind of tax professional to look for?
Replies: 14
Views: 828

Re: What kind of tax professional to look for?

An enrolled agent could run the numbers and tell you the tax consequences of retiring in place vs. the new state to which you might move. Then you can compare and decide what to do. I gather you have chosen your alternate state and it does have a state income tax? There are no legal issues. You don'...
by afan
Wed Jul 11, 2018 3:24 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7500

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

For some reason it appears everyone else can see the illustration. For me all I see is "image" which does not display anything. So I am going by what others are saying they saw. They are saying that the premium is $920/year, guaranteed. They are saying that, from year one, the cash value is equal to...
by afan
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:51 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What kind of tax professional to look for?
Replies: 14
Views: 828

Re: What kind of tax professional to look for?

From what you describe a tax attorney would be wholly inappropriate. It is not clear that you need a tax professional at all. I suggest you first post your questions on here. There are a lot of very knowledgeable people on the forum and we don't even know that your issues are complicated. If you des...
by afan
Wed Jul 11, 2018 2:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: I Now Have a Revocable Trust and Have Questions
Replies: 14
Views: 1438

Re: I Now Have a Revocable Trust and Have Questions

Absurd as it sounds to disagree with bsteiner on the subject of estate planning, here goes. An attorney who tells you they don't know much about trusts and then gives you a trust that requires distributing all assets in a year is not an estate planning expert. That makes me nervous about what the re...
by afan
Tue Jul 10, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7500

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

JBTX wrote:
Tue Jul 10, 2018 12:44 pm

The numbers he posted showed "guaranteed cash value". If dividends accrue it could be a little higher.
Thanks. I could not see the illustration.
by afan
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Grandmas Living Trust... Need Advice
Replies: 22
Views: 1384

Re: Grandmas Living Trust... Need Advice

I don't understand the annuities. If they are currently paying, what does it mean to say that there is, for example $400,000? Did she pay $400,000 to purchase these annuities, which have now annuitized? If so, then they will keep paying for her life, or perhaps a term certain, but they are not worth...
by afan
Tue Jul 10, 2018 11:07 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?
Replies: 128
Views: 7500

Re: Whole Life - We're doing it. What to look for?

If the SO has shopped for term coverage and really cannot get a policy, or the premiums for term would be higher than this whole life policy, then this policy is the least expensive way to get additional life insurance. From what the OP posted, it is not clear that any additional life insurance is n...
by afan
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:26 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Borrow for BigLaw Partnership Buy-in?
Replies: 26
Views: 3992

Re: Borrow for BigLaw Partnership Buy-in?

James and Bleck give excellent advice. The people running your firm should be able to walk you through how much this will cost, what your cash flow should be and the tax implications. I have seen associates surprised that their take home went down for a while after they made partner. Long term it wa...
by afan
Sun Jul 08, 2018 12:00 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Borrow for BigLaw Partnership Buy-in?
Replies: 26
Views: 3992

Re: Borrow for BigLaw Partnership Buy-in?

Don't reduce your tax favored savings to do the buy in. If you pass up a chance to svae this year you never get that opportunity back. You do not indicate your expected income, base salary or year end bonus. From equity partner at a national firm, it sounds like the $150k will quickly seem like a sm...
by afan
Fri Jul 06, 2018 5:03 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?
Replies: 38
Views: 3949

Re: Anyone tilting heavy to international based on current forecasts?

I have an international allocation, but I don't adjust it based on market forecasts. To do so would require me to have a lot of confidence in those forecasts. Among the reasons I don't have such confidence is that I have never seen one of the forecasters present data on the accuracy of their previou...
by afan
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Active Management Justification
Replies: 33
Views: 1832

Re: Active Management Justification

https://us.spindices.com/documents/research/research-risk-adjusted-spiva-scorecard.pdf This time the SPIVA report also calculated Sharpe ratios. For international funds the message was the same as for domestic. For Global funds, international funds, international small cap and emerging markets funds...
by afan
Fri Jul 06, 2018 10:06 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?
Replies: 32
Views: 3722

Re: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?

The article did not say anything about losing wealth. It just said that people drop out of the top 1% for income. as others have noted, many people who spend some time in the top 1% figure they have enough, retire or cut back working, and drop out. Many successful professionals and corporate executi...
by afan
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:36 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: W-4 allowances: why not withhold the minimum to avoid penalty?
Replies: 17
Views: 1299

Re: W-4 allowances: why not withhold the minimum to avoid penalty?

You should generally withhold the minimum required to avoid a penalty. In theory it could pay to withhold even less, if your return on that invested money will be larger than the penalty. People rarely have assured returns that high, so this can be a risky game to play. I was a little confused betwe...
by afan
Fri Jul 06, 2018 8:29 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?
Replies: 32
Views: 3722

Re: 10 years to lose wealth applicable to bogleheads ?

I did not see that they excluded those who had retired. Reading this forum it is clear that many people who hit 60 with 8 years of top 1% income will retire rather than continue working. If a large share of the higher earners are late in their working lives, this result sounds less interesting. For ...
by afan
Thu Jul 05, 2018 4:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5488

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

If we are talking only about an investment manager, not a more comprehensive financial advisor, then it is very difficult for them to add value over a simple index approach. If one wants an investment plan to start, then consulting an advice only planner for an asset allocation would make sense. The...
by afan
Wed Jul 04, 2018 1:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1701

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Oh please. You think this is "my" opinion? You seem interested in the topic. Here are some thoughts from statisticians who know more than you or me. I'd be happy to continue the conversation after you have educated yourself. I'll reply to substantive issues, but am finished engaging with your ad ho...
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1701

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Harvey is hardly the only person who publishes on this topic. Methods for analyzing economic and financial data are a large part of the math requirements for advanced degrees in those fields. Nonparametric tests are usually less powerful than parametric alternatives. So using them means giving up so...
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1701

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Sorry to be cynical, but a) doing valid statistics on financial data would be really hard and quite interesting, and b) as nearly as I can tell, the practitioners do not even try. You'd have thought there would be a whole subdiscipline of "financial statistics" and books of specially-designed tests...
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1701

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

One fairly simple method for addressing this, used in the analytics field, is to split your dataset in two. In the first, you data mine for significant results. You then take only those variables that were significant and test them in the second dataset to determine whether they remain significant....
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 1:13 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Statistically significant alpha?
Replies: 26
Views: 1701

Re: Statistically significant alpha?

Difficult to interpret for the reasons noted above. Also, remember that the p value is only meaningful if one did what is assumed in generating that number: Identified the hypothesis prospectively, then tested it on that one fund. If one instead combed through a large number of funds and focused on ...
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 11:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Power of Working Longer
Replies: 185
Views: 18735

Re: The Power of Working Longer

With all due respect to those criticizing the study, assuming 100% annuitization is the right way to do it. They are trying to predict a lifetime income stream available from a given level of assets. The way to get a CERTAIN income from a given networth is to convert it all to annuities. The alterna...
by afan
Tue Jul 03, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Step to revoke RLT ; / define 'extensive changes' Trust
Replies: 7
Views: 451

Re: Step to revoke RLT ; / define 'extensive changes' Trust

You definitely need the help of an attorney expert in estate planning. They would not have had you attempt to put your retirement account into your RLT. They would have at least discussed having a trust as the beneficiary of your retirement assets. From what you have described I don't see a reason t...
by afan
Mon Jul 02, 2018 2:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.
Replies: 21
Views: 2962

Re: How to document a verbal conversation for future legal reasons.

If this is important then you should consult a lawyer. I am not a lawyer. I have seen cases where two parties, who were by that time adversaries, stated very different recollections of conversations. Without a written agreement all the lawyer's could agree on was that they disagreed. If this convers...
by afan
Mon Jul 02, 2018 12:11 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5488

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

Ah, the famously misleading DALBAR study. Actually, the difference arises because not many individuals put in a lump sum at the start of a period and leave it there. Most of us contribute more money periodically as we cash paychecks. Many retirees make regular withdrawals, to satisfy RMD mandates or...
by afan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: What discount rate should be used when determining the optimum social security claiming strategy?
Replies: 11
Views: 523

Re: What discount rate should be used when determining the optimum social security claiming strategy?

I went through the same thought process as the OP and ended up the same place- making a guess at a discount rate of 2%. Then I ran calculations as discount rates from zero to 5%. They changed the NPV's of course, but did not seem to have much effect on the claiming strategy. In one interesting devel...
by afan
Sun Jul 01, 2018 7:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?
Replies: 71
Views: 5488

Re: Do Advisers Add $$$ Value?

The most reliable and profitable way for an advisor to make money is by charging an percent of AUM. This provides a steady return of high fees. Given how little work is involved in managing a portfolio, the advisor can generate fees of thousands to tens of thousands of dollars per hour. No wonder th...
by afan
Sat Jun 30, 2018 7:16 pm
Forum: Investing - Help with Personal Investments
Topic: Umbrella Policy: Right amount for $7 mil net worth?
Replies: 54
Views: 6691

Re: Umbrella Policy: Right amount for $7 mil net worth?

I have a good friend who is an attorney with long experience doing defense work, but not personal injury. According to him, insurance companies are expert at understanding the level of risk for a particular case and the level of legal skill required to defend it. They will have a stable of perfectly...