Search found 3815 matches

by afan
Mon Oct 15, 2018 5:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Does anyone invest in commodities through an index?
Replies: 27
Views: 1503

Re: Does anyone invest in commodities through an index?

This thread stimulated me to go back and view some of the many older posts on the holy grail of investment- the CCF fund PCRIX. There was a stretch when this generated lots of excitement on here. There were people desperate to get in. Strategies to get around its high investment minimum. Speculation...
by afan
Sat Oct 13, 2018 7:03 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Making Winter Camping more comfortable
Replies: 39
Views: 2576

Re: Making Winter Camping more comfortable

If you are sleeping on the ground, then a good pad under the sleeping bag makes a big difference. Closed cell foam is best for insulation. If it is cold enough, perhaps two pads. A good warm sleeping bag. Wicking clothing next to your skin. Change into fresh clothing before you go to bed. The clothe...
by afan
Fri Oct 12, 2018 4:01 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Should we rent a car or take our low mileage 2006 Volvo on a family trip?
Replies: 49
Views: 3079

Re: Should we rent a car or take our low mileage 2006 Volvo on a family trip?

Trip or no trip, if you need new tires get them! Big safety improvement over worn tirea. Tires that are still legal can be far from their best. I replace them well before the treadwear indicators demand. Have a mechanic check the rest of the car. If it is in good shape you are not likely to get some...
by afan
Thu Oct 11, 2018 6:45 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Consultant Advice: Commission - What to watch out for
Replies: 11
Views: 894

Re: Consultant Advice: Commission - What to watch out for

Agree you need a lawyer. Your obligations dpened on what the contract said.
From the broker's point of view they have already done their part of the deal- bringing you the client.The fact that they will not bring more does not change the service they already provided.

But legally? You need a lawyer.
by afan
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3488

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

The usual pitch for expensive alternative investments is positive expected return and negative correlation with other assets. Some have claimed that zero or negative expected return can be useful if the negative correlation is strong enough. And of course, you should pay a lot of money for someone t...
by afan
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset
Replies: 66
Views: 3488

Re: Diversifying with a zero-correlation, zero-return volatile asset

- it is known that the total dollar value of the checks that Warren might write to you is strictly lower than the total value of checks that you write to Warren. But why add this condition? I was with you right up until that point. This condition is not true of insurance. For a company to be profit...
by afan
Wed Oct 10, 2018 9:15 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group: New Advisor
Replies: 17
Views: 1594

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group: New Advisor

I am in Fidelity's Private Client Group and have had an (no fee) Account Executive for the last ~10 years. My AE has changed several times in those years, especially early on. In 2008, I had one AE who was helpful in setting up Fido's RIP program to give me the green light toward being able to reti...
by afan
Wed Oct 10, 2018 7:17 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 185
Views: 9927

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I am sorry but IMO you do not have enough money saved to justify spending that much for a car. If you were making say $300K and had savings of say $2M to $3M then I would say go for it. But you just are not that rich for a guy who is 45. Go buy a lower cost car and keep saving that $700 per month. ...
by afan
Tue Oct 09, 2018 7:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3
Replies: 185
Views: 9927

Re: Talk me out of buying a Tesla Model 3

I am sorry but IMO you do not have enough money saved to justify spending that much for a car. If you were making say $300K and had savings of say $2M to $3M then I would say go for it. But you just are not that rich for a guy who is 45. Go buy a lower cost car and keep saving that $700 per month. ...
by afan
Tue Oct 09, 2018 2:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using bonds to offset mortgage interest?
Replies: 9
Views: 576

Re: Using bonds to offset mortgage interest?

But we would aim to continue growing that $800K of liquidity in various investments, You can’t invest the same $800K in a 10-year Treasury bond and in “various investments.” I feel like I am missing something... In the OP it sounds like an additional $800k has appeared from somewhere. If you borrow...
by afan
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?
Replies: 5
Views: 471

Re: Is there an arbitrage opportunity when the imputed tax rate on a municipal bond varies from one's actual tax rate?

It would be arbitrage if you could borrow at the tax free rate, lend at the taxable rate and pocket the difference. Individuals cannot do this.
by afan
Tue Oct 09, 2018 5:03 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter
Replies: 82
Views: 6160

Re: Larry Swedroe: Why Emerging Markets Matter

EM “outperformance”: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=2&startYear=1972&endYear=2018&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&portfolio1=Custom&portfolio2=Custom&portfo...
by afan
Mon Oct 08, 2018 6:24 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Life insurance theory
Replies: 11
Views: 1009

Re: Life insurance theory

I don't need cash value life insurance. However, for those who do, for the reasons you indicated, I suspect the certainty of the whole life variety might be exactly what is called for. Putting this money into a variable policy might or might not produce enough money when the time came, which would r...
by afan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:22 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"
Replies: 15
Views: 1581

Re: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"

Vineviz and nisiprius, I admire your patience in seeking out and attempting to test existing funds. But for protection of future results, remember that these are actively managed funds. Whatever the managers may have done in the past, the mix of strategies will change in the future. Or so they promi...
by afan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 1:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11438

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

I completely agree that I would love to KNOW the likelihood of large gains or losses for stocks over the next 2 years. If anyone KNOWS , please PM me. Well, isn't that just trying to model recession probabilities? If so, you should see the thread on yield inversions. Note the key word "know." Proje...
by afan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Vanguard's Shtekman and Xu beat Asness: Alt. Strategies (VASFX) vs. AQR (QSPIX)!
Replies: 18
Views: 1109

Re: Vanguard's Shtekman and Xu beat Asness: Alt. Strategies (VASFX) vs. AQR (QSPIX)!

For idle curiosity, having no intention of buying any of these funds, I fired up Portfolio Visualizer and ran a 60/40 VTI/BND vs 55/35 VTI/BND with 10% one of the funds in this discussion. I don't remember which one, it does not matter. The result was that I was no better off with it than without it...
by afan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11438

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

I completely agree that I would love to know the likelihood of large gains or losses for stocks over the next 2 years. If anyone knows, please PM me.
by afan
Sun Oct 07, 2018 7:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle
Replies: 83
Views: 11438

Re: “It’s probably wise to sell to the sleeping point.” - Jack Bogle

It makes perfect sense to adjust your target asset allocation if your desired risk changes. It makes sense for some people to change their desired risk as they approach retirement. This applies most clearly to people who 1. have enough to retire but only a small margin of safety 2. Anticipate little...
by afan
Fri Oct 05, 2018 8:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is that value premium?
Replies: 57
Views: 4021

Re: Where is that value premium?

If my risk tolerance is higher than yours, for instance, it's completely rational for me to take on more risk than you even if (especially if) we are both getting the same risk-adjusted return. Sure. But you can get that by increasing your stock allocation in VTI. No need to go to play with value f...
by afan
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:51 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: can i start a private investment firm?
Replies: 70
Views: 5048

Re: can i start a private investment firm?

The problem is not investing with friends or family members. Buffett's friends and family could quite reasonably buy BRK. The problem is investing with people who have no idea what they are doing. I assume the first post is a joke. Who in the world would invest with someone who has not a clue of how...
by afan
Fri Oct 05, 2018 11:37 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Where is that value premium?
Replies: 57
Views: 4021

Re: Where is that value premium?

Fama and French do not claim that value produces increased risk adjusted returns. They say that the higher expected returns are compensation for higher expected risk.

I don't get the fascination with getting market risk adjusted returns through value, rather than total market.
by afan
Fri Oct 05, 2018 5:10 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: [CNBC article: Don't expect to retire at 70]
Replies: 60
Views: 6215

Re: [CNBC article: Don't expect to retire at 70]

Sloppy reasoning as many have pointed out. Raises three interesting questions: For how long a life should one plan? How many years of retirement might one consider desirable? How many working years, at a given savings rate, will it take to fund a retirement of the desired length, given the constantl...
by afan
Thu Oct 04, 2018 4:39 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Need advice will vs trust for my situation
Replies: 28
Views: 2127

Re: Need advice will vs trust for my situation

Trust charges 1% per year when activated. The trust should not state the trustee fee. That would depend on the corporate trustee you use. A will does not avoid probate. Probate is the process of settling an estate according to the terms of the will. Bsteiner says that probate in SD is not that bad....
by afan
Thu Oct 04, 2018 11:14 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers
Replies: 53
Views: 8621

Re: Real estate vs stock market returns: some unbiased numbers

I would never invest in individual real estate properties because I know I would not know what I was doing. There are people who do this as a business. They know vacancy rates, laws applying to landlords, how to get good financing, deal with local laws and regulations, deal with tenants, deal with i...
by afan
Thu Oct 04, 2018 6:16 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a will and trust setup (Ohio)
Replies: 17
Views: 1161

Re: Getting a will and trust setup (Ohio)

To be fair, "trustee has discretion to make disbursements for the benefit of the child..." is a rule. I suspect language discussing trustee powers may be what the OP described as "rules." Absurd as it is for me to disagree with bsteiner on anything remotely related to law, I think this is a great ti...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:17 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Getting a will and trust setup (Ohio)
Replies: 17
Views: 1161

Re: Getting a will and trust setup (Ohio)

Agree with the above. The cost will depend a lot on where you live and who you hire. A senior partner at a Big Law firm in the heart of a major city is going to cost a lot. They would be overkill for what you need. A good attorney who is not an estates and trusts expert could do a good job for you. ...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:11 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Using Vanguard as successor trustee - experiences?
Replies: 3
Views: 492

Re: Using Vanguard as successor trustee - experiences?

It does not sound like Vanguard would be right for you. They are definitely interested in managing trusts for the long term. If your current trust calls for it to be distributed and dissolved at your death I suspect Vanguard would not accept the job of trustee. Vanguard does not serve as executor an...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Need a better RMD calculator
Replies: 19
Views: 834

Re: Need a better RMD calculator

Exactly. One can calculate actual RMD, for a year, based on age and end of year value. Predictions of future RMDs requires predictions of the rate of return. That prediction is going to be error prone. You could use financial planning software to make those predictions but keep in mind that those pr...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:38 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: With random sources of income, how do you know what you have to pay taxes on?
Replies: 12
Views: 812

Re: With random sources of income, how do you know what you have to pay taxes on?

You have to pay taxes on income. It does not matter whether it is full time, part time, intermittent gigs.. You do not pay taxes on gifts you receive. If do do a job for someone and they give you money you cannot get around the requirements to report and pay taxes by calling the payment a gift. It d...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 11:44 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Credit Karma worth it
Replies: 16
Views: 1212

Re: Credit Karma worth it

I have credit scores and monitoring from a couple of lf credit cards. No need to give my info to a new site. Credit reports are frozen, so I should be at low risk of identity theft. I use the scores reports to look for something new happening. Given the free services from companies that already have...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"
Replies: 15
Views: 1581

Re: "Multialternative mutual fund returns"

The problem of finding a benchmark for these funds is that the funds themselves can wander all over the place in how they are invested. Even for a single fund, you cannot account for all this variation when trying to choose a benchmark. These funds attempt to create a new asset class with positive e...
by afan
Wed Oct 03, 2018 6:22 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]
Replies: 98
Views: 6670

Re: Why is Home Part of NW [Net Worth]

Net worth is a critical element in estate planning. How much will go to A. heirs/charity? B. How much to taxes? How should you arrange your affairs to maximize the amounts that go to A and minimize what goes to B? If you really like taxes, you can include a bequest to the government. But you can onl...
by afan
Mon Oct 01, 2018 5:13 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Cancer patient - Estate planning for minor beneficiary
Replies: 14
Views: 1481

Re: Cancer patient - Estate planning for minor beneficiary

This is a perfect situation for a corporate trustee. If the amount of money is large enough Vanguard will do it for 0.55% of assets. They will scrupulously follow the terms of the trust and keep detailed records of all spending. There will be no direct way for the ex spouse to misuse the money. You ...
by afan
Sun Sep 30, 2018 2:23 pm
Forum: Personal Consumer Issues
Topic: Which type of Primary Care Physician?
Replies: 54
Views: 4142

Re: Which type of Primary Care Physician?

If all you have to go on is "internist" vs "family practice" then go with internist. The FP has been trained in a lot of things that will not matter to someone the OPs age. Most of the problems that general internists confront become more common with age. In that sense, they are all geriatricians fo...
by afan
Sun Sep 30, 2018 8:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015
Replies: 62
Views: 2530

Re: CAPE-Based Robert Shiller Bought Italy and Spain Indexes in 2015

I don't make investment decisions based on valuations. Too much noise to be useful. To be fair to Shiller, he emphasizes the studies that show valuations to have some preditictive power over the long term. A few years is not long enough to evaluate the accuracy of his country picks. Among other ques...
by afan
Sun Sep 30, 2018 7:48 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group
Replies: 45
Views: 7554

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group

The net fee for index portfolios may be much less than the gross amount of 70bps. The document also states Although long, the policy is not clear on the amounts of the credit. But the investment advosry fee for the index funds is very low. As low as zero for the new index funds. That would make the...
by afan
Sat Sep 29, 2018 6:04 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?
Replies: 17
Views: 1720

Re: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?

Active managers persist because few people have the patience to read the academic literature. They pick up their ideas from the popular press, which is supported by the active side of the industry. They also assume that wealthy fund managers inow more about investing than they do. That is true. They...
by afan
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?
Replies: 17
Views: 1720

Re: What kind of irrationality causes investors to accept exorbitant prices for active management?

Long-term successful active managers do happen (e.g. Ed Owens), we just cannot know them in advance or how they will perform next year. Long-term successful active managers do happen (e.g. Bill Miller), we just cannot know them in advance or how they will perform next year. The distribution of retu...
by afan
Sat Sep 29, 2018 5:42 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group
Replies: 45
Views: 7554

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group

I logged into my account, which is coded "Private Client Group," and tried to find a description of the Group. I know it used to be there, but I couldn't find it. One link seemed to mistakenly direct me to Wealth Management. I spent more time perusing the Fidelity site and also Googling. I think th...
by afan
Sat Sep 29, 2018 8:58 am
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Fidelity Private Client Group
Replies: 45
Views: 7554

Re: Fidelity Private Client Group

I don't get this interest in free trades. They are trivial to get for purchases and widely available on sales. For someone with $1M plus at one company the $5 fee if you did pay commissions should be negligible. For purchases Schwab has a set of highly liquid ETFs that you can trade for free. All an...
by afan
Thu Sep 27, 2018 1:59 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: How to charge much higher than Credit Card Limit
Replies: 39
Views: 3438

Re: How to charge much hire than Credit Card Limit

Why not call your preferred credit card company up and ask them what would work best to accomplish your goal? Maybe you would make an initial estimated payment of $1 million to the credit card company (assuming their systems can handle that large a payment/balance), let the funds clear so the credi...
by afan
Thu Sep 27, 2018 12:21 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: HELOC to Pay off Mortgage
Replies: 36
Views: 3237

Re: HELOC to Pay off Mortgage

At that interest rate I wouldn't be in any hurry to pay down the mortgage. But if you do want to get rid of it faster, just make extra principal payments any month that you have the money. Skip the extra payments when you have high other bills. Every time you do this you reduce the total interest yo...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 65
Views: 7497

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

I look at it as weighing the risk of running out of money against the risk of running out of time. Exactly, but not symmetrical. I know I will run out of time. In that sense, there is no "risk". The probability is 1. I may or may not run out of money before that happens. The probability of running ...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:37 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 65
Views: 7497

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

Not to be a downer, but the wise thing to do is keep saving. There is no reason to assume we will be spared a Depression worse than the Great one sometime during one's retirement. I suspect there were plenty of people who thought they were sitting pretty in 1929... Forever? You do know that the "4%...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:20 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators
Replies: 34
Views: 2108

Re: Testing validity of Monte Carlo Simulators

The simulations usually are based on an assumption of a normal distribution. Stock returns are not normal. With more work one can alter the input distribution. Just as one does not know the mean return for the future, one does not know the future distribution of returns. So a MC simulation will retu...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 1:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: DIYers Taking a Toll
Replies: 50
Views: 6489

Re: DIYers Taking a Toll

I don't use one but there is still room for fiduciary financial advisors. That would require becoming a CFP or getting some other relevant training. There are lots of sales jobs- insurance, cars, home appliances. He could do any of those is he is good at sales. Major brokerages still need analysts, ...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Exactly how do index funds work?
Replies: 15
Views: 1815

Re: Exactly how do index funds work?

Remember that there are creation units. Large traders assemble a basket of stocks that are in proportion to the index. They then sell these units to index investors. If a mutual fund needs to sell shares to meet redemption requests the same traders will buy units from them. Absent a big market meltd...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 65
Views: 7497

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

Try to avoid/minimize/defer dividends and interest income (or switch to tax deferred muni interest etc). Munis for bonds in taxable is easy. Minimizing dividends cannot be done without distorting the portfolio. The stock market as a whole pays dividends. If you start eliminating dividend paying sto...
by afan
Wed Sep 26, 2018 5:51 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 65
Views: 7497

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

Not to be a downer, but the wise thing to do is keep saving. There is no reason to assume we will be spared a Depression worse than the Great one sometime during one's retirement. I suspect there were plenty of people who thought they were sitting pretty in 1929... Forever? You do know that the "4%...
by afan
Tue Sep 25, 2018 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post
Replies: 65
Views: 7497

Re: Don't Fear the Reaper (RMDs) - White Coat Investor blog post

Not to be a downer, but the wise thing to do is keep saving. There is no reason to assume we will be spared a Depression worse than the Great one sometime during one's retirement. I suspect there were plenty of people who thought they were sitting pretty in 1929...