Search found 103 matches

by ljford7
Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:47 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does the Federal funds rate translate to Treasury rates?
Replies: 18
Views: 1548

Re: How does the Federal funds rate translate to Treasury rates?

martincmartin wrote: Sat Jul 02, 2022 8:18 am In summary: what's the mechanism whereby the Fed raising rates affects Treasury rates
I have wondered the same thing.

Another thing I have wondered is that the Fed appears to be telegraphing rates getting to the 3% - 3.5% range. What happens if the Fed raises them to say 3.5% and the market says, no we think it should be 3%. Can the market trade at a discount the Fed? Has it happened before?
by ljford7
Wed May 04, 2022 5:17 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Fed raises target Federal funds rate range to 0.75% - 1.00%
Replies: 37
Views: 4627

Re: Fed raises target Federal funds rate range to 0.75% - 1.00%

Powell telegraphed 50 bps at each of the next two meetings. First he says inflation will be transitory. Then he says he will raise 25 basis points at each meeting. Now he says he will raise 50 basis points at each meeting. I'm seeing a pattern here LOL. I think his brain is taking its sweet time in adjusting to the reality that is (and has been) surrounding him. Regards, I think that's part of it. Both the FED and market believed inflation was transient. Inflation has been so low for so long. Even when the market thought it would get higher, it would stay low. This time was different. I think they are also trying to be careful not to overeact. They're committed to getting inflation down, but it doesn't have to be tomorrow. There's no sign ...
by ljford7
Wed Apr 06, 2022 8:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

bgf wrote: Mon Mar 28, 2022 1:50 pm I'm still holding. People are WAY overconfident that they know what bonds are going to do over the next few months, years, even 10 years. People accept they can't tell the future with equities but they apparently have little problem foretelling future interest rate moves and bond performance. It's the single most interesting thing on this forum over the past quarter or so.

Every boglehead is now somehow a bond expert.

What I think is that they are equally good at forecasting rates and bond performance as stock performance, which is to say, they're hot garbage.
This is a great post. Bonds are hurting right now, but give it some time and the narrative will switch.
by ljford7
Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:20 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Booogle wrote: Wed Dec 15, 2021 8:39 am PISIX is based on developed international, which Vanguard says will outperform in the next 10 years:

https://institutional.vanguard.com/iam/ ... 122021.pdf
Be careful with this. Vangaurd has had the same message for years and have been wrong every time. Maybe they will be right this time, who knows?
by ljford7
Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:53 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Thank you for the explanation. Here is a screenshot as of today. Why would it show unrealized loss of -3296.97? Because current price is $8.12? Is it better idea to buy when price drops after distribution? https://i.postimg.cc/sDNVTYC7/Untitled1.png Vanguard doe some weird math with PSLDX and it doesn't reflect the "true" return. I keep a separate spreadsheet that gives me the real return of the investment (I suspect that Vanguard doesn't calculate the dividends/capital gains as return and just looks at that as adding new money to the fund (when you reinvest those items). As far as your question, it doesn't really matter when you buy it because it is always going to go down in value when it pays dividends. I like to rebalance int...
by ljford7
Fri Dec 10, 2021 7:46 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Ed Yardeni discusses his new book and the economy on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast
Replies: 23
Views: 3980

Re: Dr. Ed Yardeni discusses his new book and the economy on this "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast

Good Morning Rick,

I really enjoyed the podcast and felt it was one of the best. Ed's no nonsense approach to answering the questions was very refreshing. I also enjoyed his views that were backed up by data/facts even when they go against the prevailing narrative (some of the posters in this thread didn't seem to appreciate it).

Thanks again for doing these! I always learn a great deal and look forward to your future guests.
by ljford7
Sun Nov 07, 2021 12:47 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

The point is that you have to pay taxes on all of the gains, where-as typically with equities you'll only pay taxes on dividends (and all of that is qualified so lower rate) and then can decide how much to sell in addition to meet your withdrawal rate. PSLDX's expected return on the equity side is greater than any reasonable safe-withdrawal rate so it is forcing a distribution larger than you'd need, thus forcing you to pay excess taxes (and again, 60/40 long/short cap-gain so a higher rate). Imagine 8% expected equity return and 4% withdrawal rate. In VOO you'll get 2% from dividends, and then sell 2% more, and pay long-term on the 4% withdrawal rate. Let's assume 25% tax, now you are left with 3% after-tax to spend. With PSLDX you'll dis...
by ljford7
Sun Nov 07, 2021 7:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

MotoTrojan wrote: Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:17 am The 1st 3 quarters are just regular dividends on the bonds held by the portfolio. Futures are always marked-to-market and settled in the 4th quarter, hence why you'll have a distribution equal to the annual gain of the S&P500 (plus a little bit more from the bonds) every year-end, which is debilitating for returns and way more than any sustainable withdrawal rate (hence why it doesn't work to just spend that income in retirement, and claim it is tax efficient).
I am not following on your comment bolded above regarding why this is a bad thing (if you hold it for the entire year, does it really matter when futures are settled). Could you expand on it?
by ljford7
Thu Nov 04, 2021 8:06 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Would something like this have the same level of risk and be a decent substitute? 33% upro 33% tmf 34% short term TIPs Or for some factor diversification 25% upro 25% small value 33% tmf 17% short TIPs One aspect I'm unsure about is whether in the case of the first one 34% should be viewed as a floor in the case of a crisis or whether because the rest is so volatile that I'd be rebalancing quarterly into a falling knife such that it would actually be safer to have a smaller cash (in this case short TIPs) allocation combined with less risky bond allocation. There are numerous ways to construct a substitute, but none of them mirror PSLDX as well as I personally like. UPRO and TMF are volatility monsters and are very hard to hold and watch th...
by ljford7
Wed Oct 27, 2021 11:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Is there a manual replication of PSLDX (using combination of ETFs) suitable for taxable account? We've written about this over and over in this thread. It's too easy, really, if you are going to use something like treasuries. Just pick your 2x funds and you wouldn't have to rebalance all that much. PSLDX is actually not just treasuries, and so I think PSLDX is more exactly 35% UPRO, 20% TMF, and 45% VCLT (or BLV or ILTB) You can't really get leveraged corporate bond funds, but since 3X is overkill, it all works out. What about 35% UPRO and 65% EDV ? Playing with PV, the PSLDX advantage in the last year goes away if you rebalance often Earlier in the thread it was discussed that PLRIX is the "bond" portion of PSLDX. Go and chart t...
by ljford7
Thu Oct 21, 2021 8:20 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

sigma_frq1 wrote: Tue Oct 19, 2021 8:08 am Is there a manual replication of PSLDX (using combination of ETFs) suitable for taxable account?
Make sure you do your own PV on the ETF combos that you locate. Some work better then others and I have yet to see one that is spot on (I suspect it is due to the active management of the bond portfolio of PSLDX).
by ljford7
Mon Aug 02, 2021 2:08 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Credit Suisse Report: How We Lost $5.5 Billion on Archegos
Replies: 4
Views: 1551

Re: Credit Suisse Report: How We Lost $5.5 Billion on Archegos

Vegomatic wrote: Thu Jul 29, 2021 8:59 am However, the investigation also found that this was not a situation where the business and risk personnel engaged in fraudulent or illegal conduct or acted with ill intent. Nor was it one where the architecture of risk controls and processes was lacking, or the existing risk systems failed to operate sufficiently to identify critical risks and related concerns.
It is called "greed" and they got slaughtered!
by ljford7
Tue Jul 06, 2021 1:14 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged ETFs
Replies: 28
Views: 6162

Re: Leveraged ETFs

ryanbohle wrote: Mon Jul 05, 2021 11:04 pm Thinking about putting 5% of my US stock allocation into leveraged ETFs, thoughts?
The two best ones (IMO) to look at are PSLDX (2x leverage) and NTSX (1.5x leverage) (full disclaimer I invest in both of them at much more then 5%). There are a couple of great threads on here analyzing both of them.

UPRO/TMF is very risky and not for the faint of heart, but at 5%, it could pay off.
by ljford7
Wed Jun 23, 2021 10:15 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Good Reason to Hold Bonds and International Stocks - 1990's Japan
Replies: 239
Views: 17715

Re: Good Reason to Hold Bonds and International Stocks - 1990's Japan

So the US had a great depression, bad inflation in the 70s, Black Monday, the Dot Com bubble, the Great Financial Crisis, etc.

Guess you shouldn't invest in the US either. :wink:
by ljford7
Wed Jun 09, 2021 2:29 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is there a way to work "safe" leverage into a portfolio?
Replies: 30
Views: 5033

Re: Is there a way to work "safe" leverage into a portfolio?

One of the tamer of such products is the Wisdomtree US Efficient Core Fund, NTSX, which roughly mimics a "90/60" stock/bond allocation, i.e a 60/40 allocation leveraged 1.5X. I am simply noting its existence. I'm not recommending it. It's not suitable for me . With NTSX there is no risk of a margin call; and the amount of leverage is only 1.5X; and it is not leveraging up an already-risky 100% stocks, but a classic balanced 60/40 portfolio. WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund) WisdomTree NTSX now has siblings NTSI and NTSE launched today No total world fund yet, to many folks dissapointment. It would make a great 1-fund portfolio. Don't forget PSLDX as well if you want to use some leverage. h...
by ljford7
Thu Jun 03, 2021 3:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree NTSX now has siblings NTSI and NTSE launched today
Replies: 110
Views: 17856

Re: WisdomTree NTSX now has siblings NTSI and NTSE launched today

SafeBonds wrote: Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:00 pm No one should invest in this because no one should invest in a leveraged investment if they either a.) Do not understand how to implement this strategy on their own or b.) Do not understand how big a deal it would be to save yourself this expense ratio
This really isn't correct and should be changed to "no one should invest in any investment without knowing the risk that is involved."

You don't need to know how options/futures/derivatives/etc. work (that is what you are paying the fund managers for).
by ljford7
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement
Replies: 566
Views: 52752

Re: Withdrawal rate for an early retirement

Marseille07 wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:28 am
0 Percent Withdrawal Rate

Once I left work, I challenged myself to not withdraw any money from my retirement accounts. In other words, I enacted a 0 percent withdrawal rate.
So he got another job (not retired)?
by ljford7
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:30 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Ramjet wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:41 am
moptop wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:24 am AUM is probably low because you can't hold it in taxable as well...
Very true
It is not quite double the AUM of NTSX. NTSX is newer, but it is also a lot easier to purchase then PSLDX.

https://ycharts.com/mutual_funds/M:PSLD ... management

https://ycharts.com/companies/NTSX/tota ... management
by ljford7
Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

vpiguy88 wrote: Wed Jun 02, 2021 9:46 am Just realized this earlier this morning, yep. The distributions on the other ones are less insane.

Any reason why they're so much higher here, if the funds are all structured similarly but just use different bond components? I find it hard to believe that leveraged long bonds would have something like 2.5x higher distributions than PSPTX's bond portfolio too, but maybe I'm just ignorant.
They are entirely different funds that track different benchmarks. PSPTX is essentially a S&P fund while PSLDX is an S&P + Bond fund (both leveraged).
by ljford7
Thu May 27, 2021 3:45 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Firecalc limitations
Replies: 19
Views: 4270

Re: Firecalc limitations

Exchme wrote: Thu May 27, 2021 11:45 am Marwood and Minnen wrote an article about it here:
https://www.financialplanningassociatio ... down-paths
Thank you for sharing that link. Interesting read.
by ljford7
Wed May 19, 2021 8:52 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is Credit Suisse being too gloomy about future returns?
Replies: 34
Views: 3300

Re: Is Credit Suisse being too gloomy about future returns?

Just posted the below in another thread, but it applies here as well:

Go and read Vanguard's previous market forecasts (past 10 years) to see how accurate they were. You are going to find a continuing trend and it is that they have been wrong a lot.

You shouldn't make any adjustments on what a market forecast or market pundits say.
by ljford7
Wed May 19, 2021 8:41 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is real estate ultimately linked to the stock market in the long term
Replies: 20
Views: 2557

Re: Is real estate ultimately linked to the stock market in the long term

To be honest, I have some FOMO. I have investments in stocks but only own my primary home in my real estate portfolio. Many people I know bought some investment real estate and now seem smart in retrospect. Is this a good time to be looking for some investment real estate especially in up and coming places ? And what would some examples of those up and coming places be? Be very careful with real estate and really dig into the expenses yourself. I have done it multiple of times and it rarely pencils out when you account for all costs (management fees, fix/replace HVAC systems, new carpet, new paint, etc. as well as months without renters or months repairing a house destroyed by renters, or not being able to evict renters for not paying, etc...
by ljford7
Wed May 19, 2021 8:11 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are Vanguard's 10-year forecasts flawed in any way?
Replies: 75
Views: 9608

Re: Are Vanguard's 10-year forecasts flawed in any way?

Go and read Vanguard's previous market forecasts (past 10 years) to see how accurate they were. You are going to find a continuing trend and it is that they have been wrong a lot.

You shouldn't make any adjustments on what a market forecast or market pundits say.
by ljford7
Sat Apr 17, 2021 3:39 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Portfoliovizualiser accuracy?
Replies: 3
Views: 740

Re: Portfoliovizualiser accuracy?

This might be of some use: https://investor.vanguard.com/etf/profile/fees/bndw

I am sure you can find others, but I am most familiar with Vanguard's website.
by ljford7
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Thinking of attempting a DYI with 33% UPRO and 67% EDV. I'm wondering, is increasing duration taking the same kind of risk as leverage? The duration for PSLDX is ~16, so if EDV was ~24, is that the same kind of interest rate risk and expected performance as levering a 16 duration treasury bond by 1.5x? I know PSLDX isn't all treasuries so the risk profile is different in that regard... I know that UPRO behaves differently than 3x margin SP 500. But say I'm aiming for 100% SP 500 and 100% LTT, is the above a decent approximation? Considering the combined ER of EDV/UPRO is .36, vs 1.02 for PSLDX, it seems like a DYI version is optimal, unless maybe UPRO's issues stemming from daily leverage are worth paying a significant amount to avoid? My ...
by ljford7
Mon Apr 12, 2021 8:06 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX? [PIMCO StocksPLUS Long Duration Fund]
Replies: 2106
Views: 391589

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

Very well said, indeed long term bonds suffer heavy losses during periods immediately after recession when long term yield curve expands (i.e. shorter duration yields relatively constant and longer duration yields go up drastically). This yield curve expansion period also predicts rising inflation (although not perfectly) in short term which favors value/small-value stocks with high tangible assets. A similar scenario happened in 2013 when long term treasury yields rose in 2013 (taper tantrum?). In 2013, PSLDX returned 18% versus S&P 500 return of 32%. Moreover, on the bond side of portfolio, corporate bonds, even if high quality, do carry credit risk which is correlated with equity risk, which dilutes the overall benefit of negative c...
by ljford7
Thu Apr 08, 2021 9:33 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?
Replies: 773
Views: 72905

Re: Are 3x leveraged ETFs the long-term winning strategy?

DFSVX has a lot of distributions, total return matters. Here is since inception: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=DFSVX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VFINX&...
by ljford7
Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Marseille07 wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:23 pm I can correct you. The timeframe you have is the longest bull market in history, so UPRO looks rosier than the reality.
Maybe you can help with this then. If you plug in UBT (ProShares Ultra 20+ Year Treasury 2X) in lieu of TMF, your return % of both UBT and UPRO aligns almost perfectly with risk contributions.

TMF/UPRO for the same time period still shows the large gap in return/risk. PV Link

Shouldn't UBT has the same issue as TMF in the return versus risk due to the bull market?
by ljford7
Mon Apr 05, 2021 6:21 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

My opinion: It is a fallacy that bonds are safe. There is a reason why the 60/40 portfolios don't beat the SP500 - it's the bonds!! TMF should only be viewed as insurance against UPRO in the event that there is a prolonged slow bear market with falling or stagnant interest rates. Don't disagree and look at this: 50/50 UPRO/TMF PV Click on exposures and look at Risk Contribution on the far right. If I am interpreting this correctly, TMF is a lot risker then UPRO is. UPRO has 79% of the return, but only 47.75% of the portfolio risk. TMF has 21% of the return and 52.25% of the portfolio risk. (I understand the insurance aspect of it, but this is really bad insurance for the risk you take on - please correct me if I am reading the Risk Contrib...
by ljford7
Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:53 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

jarjarM wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:36 pm
Ramjet wrote: Mon Apr 05, 2021 3:24 pm YTD - finally in the green
That darn TMF :beer
It is darn close to where it was 2 years ago (5/20/19 - 22.34). So many people only thought of UPRO as risky (myself included), but TMF is just as risky.
by ljford7
Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:55 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?
Replies: 104
Views: 11267

Re: S&P 500 v Total Stock - What is your favorite and why?

https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2021&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&reinvestDividends=true&showYield=false&showFactors=false&factorModel=3&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=VFINX&allocation1_1=100&symbol2=VTSMX&allocation2_2=100 It doesn't really matter (the returns are similar). Pick the o...
by ljford7
Sun Mar 28, 2021 8:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary
Replies: 136
Views: 15427

Re: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary

Go and do a quick google search for: overvalued stocks followed by a year. Every year in the recent past has lots of articles about overvalued stocks, yet the S&P has kept moving up and to the right.
by ljford7
Tue Mar 23, 2021 7:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: WisdomTree 90/60 US Efficient Core Fund [NTSX] (formerly US Balanced Fund)
Replies: 857
Views: 156870

Re: WisdomTree 90/60 U.S. Balanced Fund [NTSX]

I'm considering NTSX as a significant holding from a windfall I'm investing, i.e., held in taxable, majority of my net worth. It seems like the right way to think about it is as a lower-volatility/higher-upside replacement for VTI/VOO — obviously not that it will always outperform (current conditions being a good example), but over the long run. I'm curious if other NTSX-holders are using it this way, or how they think about NTSX in an Bogldeheads portfolio? If my AA would normally be 70/20/10 US/Intl/Bonds (I'm in my accumulation phase), would folks just use NTSX for the US piece, or is there reason that I should think about still having plain VTI? I hold it as part of my US stock allocation (I also hold it in taxable and IRA). I still ho...
by ljford7
Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:56 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary
Replies: 136
Views: 15427

Re: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary

sapphire96 wrote: Sun Mar 21, 2021 10:28 am Chart B - S&P 500 Percent Over Exponential Average.
Image
This is a really neat chart. The dotcom bust (recently) shows how much the market was out of alignment at the time. What did you us to make the chart?
by ljford7
Mon Mar 22, 2021 9:50 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary
Replies: 136
Views: 15427

Re: Stock Bubble? History Argues the Contrary

One confusing thing is that I really do think we are seeing clear signs of some kind of mania as evidenced by GME, SPACs, NFTs, etc. etc. However, the total dollar amount is trivial compared to the total size of the market. Robinhood is the bucket shop for the 21st century, but VTI is not one of the things being gambled on. This is what I think some people fail to recognize. There are parts of the market that are exhibiting bubble like behavior, but that doesn't mean the entire market is in a bubble. I would also add electric vehicle stocks to the list. Their valuations are ridiculous and it is going to be shocking (to some people) what happens to them once the big auto manufactures start to flood the market with electric and self driving ...
by ljford7
Thu Mar 18, 2021 10:21 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 185
Views: 39130

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

Leverage for the Long Run: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm ... id=2741701

The above paper is very similar to what is now being discussed. They have good long term data on 1x, 1.5x, 2x and 3x S&P using a 200 DMA.

It is a fairly easy read compared to most financial papers and has been updated through December 2020.
by ljford7
Thu Mar 18, 2021 8:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: cFIREsim has been revised and is super easy to use.
Replies: 257
Views: 35404

Re: Cfiresim has been revised and is super easy to use. (It's based on Firecalc)

I have been playing around with it and really like it. Couple of questions/observations. I think it needs a little bit of guidance on the questions (see below): 1. Under Basics: Does the Portfolio Value $: need to equal how much the portfolio should be in the retirement year, or is it how much the portfolio is today? This is a big issue that affects the outcome greatly. If you look at the results (Average Portfolio at Retirement), it should be the portfolio amount today and not at the retirement age. 2. Under Basics: Same question as above for the Initial Yearly Spending. 2. Under Basics: It would be helpful to have the option to put in ages in lieu of using retirement years (especially for people trying to retire early). Once again, thank ...
by ljford7
Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:36 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019
Replies: 185
Views: 39130

Re: Leveraged SMA200 Strategy Back-tested 1929 - 2019

RovenSkyfall wrote: Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:50 pm Is there any good way to get an alert for the 200 dMA? If so, I might set this up and follow to see how many days I would be trading.
On your phone you can use the: WeBull: Investing & Trading app to setup alerts. You don't have to be a member to use those features. I use the app and it is quite a good app for data.

On the internet, this: https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/quo ... l-analysis (this is for VOO, but pick what ever you want). Just stick it as a favorite in a browser and check in from time to time - weekly tends to be more then appropriate to review it. I like that it gives you all of the common moving averages so you can get an idea of momentum without doing any work.
by ljford7
Wed Mar 17, 2021 2:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How has U.S outperformed International?
Replies: 133
Views: 12688

Re: How has U.S outperformed International?

For the people who say past performance of US stocks matters Why not go 100% Swedish Stocks if past performance means anything. It outperformed US massively since Dec 31st 1969. Why should person own US stocks after seeing their terrible performance in relation to Sweden? Surely 51 years is enough to conclude Sweden has better fundamentals than USA :twisted: https://i.imgur.com/tf6iYlI.png The problem with graphs like these (and they show up all the time on here), is that start dates can make something look really good (or really bad). If you change your start date to the last 10 to 20 years it is going to show something vastly different (I now because I played with it for a while). You really need to analyze the data/graphs because there ...
by ljford7
Tue Mar 16, 2021 3:38 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Nobody tackled the seemingly odd behavior. Perfectuncertainty and Hydromod were comparing the "bang-for-the-buck" aspect of 3x and 2x equity ETFs, which I believe indirectly helped explain the sometimes unconvincing results of blending, as 2x had higher returns per point of leverage. I don't recall anybody doing a longer-length comparison, with more drawdowns, for example, which might further blur the line (ex: effect of volatility decay on both approaches). This paper: https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741701 has some data on 1x, 2x and 3x. It has been posted before, but I wanted to point it out again. Regardless of the market timing aspects of the paper, it still shows the difference between the multiples for...
by ljford7
Tue Mar 02, 2021 6:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What is a good rule of thumb for how much percentage of your net worth you can afford to spend on a house?
Replies: 30
Views: 3127

Re: What is a good rule of thumb for how much percentage of your net worth you can afford to spend on a house?

There is no good rule of thumb, but spend the least amount you can.

The worse thing people do is become house poor. A bigger/expensive house won't make you happy, but a more cost effective one will if it generates extra income that you can put to use elsewhere (saving, hobbies, traveling, etc.).
by ljford7
Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)
Replies: 540
Views: 32084

Re: How crazy is it to hold 100% equities until retirement? (ERN)

willthrill81 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:38 am
Scooter57 wrote: Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:34 am <DING DING DING>

This has to be the bell marking the top of the bull market.

All that is missing are the house flipping threads and I am seeing them elsewhere...
IIRC, around a third of the time, the market is trading within about 5% of its all-time high. That's just normal.

The OP's argument is not based on recent market performance.
I always find it funny when people talk about the all time high, because they gloss over the fact that the market has to be at an all time high to expand/grow. If it is never at an all time high, we have problems.
by ljford7
Tue Mar 02, 2021 11:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Hi all - I only discovered this post today and read as much as I could in the limited time I have. I wanted to see if someone here could summarize the whole thing so I don't need to read what seems to be thousands of posts. Here is my attempt at summarizing: The original poster does a mix of 3x daily leveraged S&P and 3x bull treasuries because these two aren't strongly correlated and would provide excellent returns over long periods of time. The OP does some simulations and while it performs very well in recent decades, it would be absolutely decimated in the 70s during the period of rising interest rates. In the second half of the posts, the OP shifts his allocation slightly based on data from the 50s-60s but still has a heavy alloca...
by ljford7
Mon Mar 01, 2021 5:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 14343
Views: 1970599

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

thenextguy wrote: Mon Mar 01, 2021 4:29 pm I've always wondered why there hasn't been much discussion about trying the strategy using the 2x ETFs. It seems like a safer bet than 3x and should still return higher than market returns. Is there a reason 3x is preferred?
SSO/UBT is what you are looking for. I like the 70/30 mix the best. You can also look at SSO/EDV. You won't get as good of returns, but EDV has an incredibly low expense ratio versus UBT (.95/.07).
by ljford7
Sat Feb 27, 2021 4:56 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: BlockFi Interest Account (8.6% APY) with Stablecoin
Replies: 166
Views: 27085

Re: BlockFi Interest Account (8.6% APY) with Stablecoin

You guys might want to read this:

https://help.blockfi.com/hc/en-us/artic ... t-BlockFi-

Full disclaimer - I have some money at BlockFi earning the 8.6% interest.
by ljford7
Sat Feb 27, 2021 10:43 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How does one invest in private companies that are past the startup phase?
Replies: 7
Views: 1283

Re: How does one invest in private companies that are past the startup phase?

I think you are looking for something like equityzen?

I have an account, but never used it to purchase anything.