Search found 46 matches

by ljford7
Sun Jan 10, 2021 4:02 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Why not 100% PSLDX?
Replies: 728
Views: 80988

Re: Why not 100% PSLDX?

PSDLX tracks a S&P500 index (benchmark).

VTSAX is tracking the total market (benchmark).

Small caps have been on a terror lately and are included in VTSAX, but not PSDLX.
by ljford7
Sat Oct 24, 2020 9:09 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7246
Views: 708183

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

Off Topic, but seems like the place to mention it... I was working on some backtesting and needed Leveraged ETF data further than they actually go, so created monthly LETFsim data for QLD, TQQQ, SSO, UPRO, UBT, UST, TMF, and TYD. If it may be of use, you're welcome to it. On Dropbox here: https://w...
by ljford7
Fri Oct 23, 2020 11:18 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7246
Views: 708183

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

BTW Uncorrelated I just wanted to say I agree with you here, but I'm not quite sure how best to diversify outside the two-fund original. What do you suggest? No offense, but if you don't already know the answer to that question, then this is 100% the wrong strategy for you. This is an advanced and ...
by ljford7
Thu Oct 08, 2020 10:36 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey
Replies: 7246
Views: 708183

Re: HEDGEFUNDIE's excellent adventure Part II: The next journey

This brings up something I have been thinking about a lot lately. Does anyone know the start date sensitivity of this strategy? I.e. should people DCA into this strategy because the start date sensitivity is so large? From my understanding, with regular index investing, people are better off 2/3 of...
by ljford7
Mon Oct 05, 2020 9:02 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Rethinking bonds
Replies: 78
Views: 8341

Re: Rethinking bonds

I listened to the interview a few days ago and I believe his point was in regards to getting income out of bonds. If you need income, you might want to look at blue chip stocks with high dividends (I think he said IBM was at 6%) because bonds are not going to be providing the income a lot of retiree...
by ljford7
Sun Oct 04, 2020 9:32 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Hedgie's 55/45 With Other 3x Bond ETFs
Replies: 14
Views: 1441

Re: Hedgie's 55/45 With Other 3x Bond ETFs

Try it for yourself: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=2&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjust...
by ljford7
Tue Sep 29, 2020 9:21 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More
Replies: 216
Views: 20410

Re: Long Suffering VXUS Holder No More

https://www.bogleheads.org/blog/2020/02/07/telling-tales-2019-update/ Scroll down to the bottom and read the blurb on international investing (it is a Telltale chart). Seems like a pretty good case that international returns are tied to the strength (or lack there off) of the dollar and not necessar...
by ljford7
Sat Sep 26, 2020 9:28 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2019 update)
Replies: 36
Views: 5160

Re: Telling Tales: Value, Size, Int'l, REITs (2019 update)

Just wanted to chime in and say thank you for this. The blog post has educated me the use of the Telltale chart.
by ljford7
Thu Sep 24, 2020 11:44 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?
Replies: 37
Views: 3588

Re: Is the Total Stock Market a Large-Growth Fund?

As an investor does know this mean that you should add in some additional Large Value to help represent those companies further?

As per the original title and the presented evidence, TSM is a Large Growth Fund and you are under represent the Large Value companies.
by ljford7
Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:38 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?
Replies: 28
Views: 3553

Re: Wondering why Value funds have done so poorly?

So when will the Tech disruption end? I would wager that it won't end until some very catastrophic event in the world (like WWIII or on that scale). We are on the verge of a driver less car revolution, an alternative energy revolution, an impact worldwide declining poverty rate, worldwide declining ...
by ljford7
Mon Aug 03, 2020 8:34 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!
Replies: 279
Views: 15540

Re: Dr. Wade Pfau is my guest on the "Bogleheads on Investing" podcast!

Thank you for doing these podcasts. I have listened to everyone of them and I always learn something.

Please continue doing them and helping to educate people like myself.

(BTW I am a little disheartened to see how closed minded some of the Bogleheads community is to Dr. Pfau's ideas.)
by ljford7
Mon Mar 23, 2020 3:01 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Dumping small value?
Replies: 107
Views: 9212

Re: Dumping small value?

I only had 10% of my portfolio in SV (10+ years), but I am frankly tired of the under performance and the volatility. What I am going to do is just not rebalance into them anymore when they go down. If they get back to 10% of my portfolio again, then I might get out of them all together or rebalance...
by ljford7
Sun Jan 19, 2020 11:13 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: The Investor’s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never “Due” for Anything
Replies: 63
Views: 4801

Re: The Investor’s Fallacy - Why Markets are Never “Due” for Anything

I liked the article.

A coin flip can technically have three outcomes: it can land on a head, a tail or on its side.

The market also has three outcomes: it goes up, goes down or stays the same.

In a simplistic view, the market is very much like a coin flip - hence the gist of the article.
by ljford7
Fri Jan 17, 2020 2:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Who is not "Most Investors"?
Replies: 36
Views: 2960

Re: Who is not "Most Investors"?

I do it because I like to to tilt to SCV and REIT.

Some day I might remove the SCV tilt, but plan on always having the REIT exposure.
by ljford7
Tue Jan 14, 2020 3:58 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: How is your "number" defined?
Replies: 156
Views: 13067

Re: How is your "number" defined?

I have scanned all of the responses, looking in vain for a cogent description that I could show my wife of how to define the number that is enough. I felt we had that number (i.e., enough) some years ago. Oh well, foiled again, and I have to fall back on my wife's number: 20% more than we have toda...
by ljford7
Sat Jan 11, 2020 2:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth ??
Replies: 129
Views: 12765

Re: Net Worth ??

Why is everyone making this so hard? Calculating future cash flows (or loss of cash) from taxes/retirement/SS/pensions has nothing to do with net worth today. I have no idea what my taxes might be 20 years from now. I have no idea if the pension that is around now will be around 20 years for now. I ...
by ljford7
Fri Jan 10, 2020 9:48 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Net Worth ??
Replies: 129
Views: 12765

Re: Net Worth ??

Assets - Liabilities = Net Worth

It is as simple as above.

Another way to look at it is: (House + Investments + Banking Accounts + Vehicles + Stuff in House) - (Loans + Credit Cards) = Net Worth
by ljford7
Thu Jan 09, 2020 4:33 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Buying Car - buy outright or finance?
Replies: 59
Views: 5310

Re: Buying Car - buy outright or finance?

It really depends on what interest rate you get. If it is really low one, then take the loan. We bought a car about 4 years ago and got a 1% loan on it. The interest only adds up to $584 for the loan duration. We could have paid in cash, but for such a low interest rate, we are paying it month to mo...
by ljford7
Wed Jan 08, 2020 5:55 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?
Replies: 72
Views: 7881

Re: 100% total stock index funds until I retire?

Scroll down midway to see chart Success Rates for different SWRs, by equity share and retirement horizon (1871-2015): https://earlyretirementnow.com/2016/12/07/the-ultimate-guide-to-safe-withdrawal-rates-part-1-intro/ Vanguard baked the data into their nest egg calculator: https://retirementplans.v...
by ljford7
Wed Jan 08, 2020 1:07 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article
Replies: 95
Views: 11297

Re: In my opinion, Best Overall Retirement Article

I am so bewildered by this negativity, and clearly you are in the majority here and I am in the minority. But I am still bewildered. While clearly any job will involve some amount of compromise, I know a lot of people, including me, my DW, and all my siblings, who have jobs that they enjoy and look...
by ljford7
Sun Dec 30, 2018 8:45 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: New to Bogleheads - Portfolio Review (1st baby on the way)
Replies: 20
Views: 2511

Re: New to Bogleheads - Portfolio Review (1st baby on the way)

Another thing to think about with the new kid is if you need to use daycare. In my area, daycare costs $30,000 per year for two kids full time (unfortunately all of the places are consistent in costs). This is a huge kick in the pants to savings/debt repayment, but is something that you need to acco...
by ljford7
Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:35 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."
Replies: 89
Views: 30538

Re: "Vanguard fund shareholders encouraged to vote as proxy campaign gets under way."

Proposal 7 is a horrible proposal for a company like Vanguard. It is way to broad and comes with to many ramifications regarding interpretation. If they rewrote it to contain specific companies/countries, then it could, possibly, gain some traction. As it is written now, it seems like a political ag...
by ljford7
Sat Jul 01, 2017 3:27 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?
Replies: 30
Views: 4595

Re: would you take a new mortgage to invest in stock market?

No way!

How soon everyone forgets what happened during the great recession.
by ljford7
Sat Jun 24, 2017 11:23 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Losing admiration for Warren Buffett
Replies: 9
Views: 2444

Re: Losing admiration for Warren Buffett

I think you have unrealistic expectations for him. At the end of the day he is only human.

Write a list of every successful business person you know of and you can find fault with every one of them.
by ljford7
Sun Jun 18, 2017 10:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Why do we need an emergency fund?
Replies: 70
Views: 8448

Re: Why do we need an emergency fund?

Not everyone "needs" an emergency fund. If you have access to sizable credit accounts and/or easily accessible taxable accounts, the need to keep a bunch of cash on hand is minimized.

Like most personal finance topics, it depends on your situation, comfort level and net worth.
by ljford7
Fri Apr 07, 2017 2:43 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Social Security for Millennials
Replies: 234
Views: 30983

Re: Social Security for Millennials

I am not worried about it not being there when I retire. It is one of the biggest (if not the biggest) entitlement program the federal government has. People really like and and it is political suicide for anyone to suggest cutting benefits. It will get a bailout just like the banks/auto manufacture...
by ljford7
Fri Mar 31, 2017 10:01 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Execution Specifics of Making Backdoor Roth Contributions at Vanguard
Replies: 5
Views: 719

Re: Execution Specifics of Making Backdoor Roth Contributions at Vanguard

Do not do this without further educating yourself (see link below).

You will trigger a taxable event at your marginal tax rate and will potentially end up owing a lot of taxes (depends on much your Traditional IRA/Rollover 401ks have in them).

https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Backdoor_Roth_IRA
by ljford7
Mon Mar 27, 2017 8:31 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 11338

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

KlangFool That is a very good point that you raised (BTW we have right at a $1,000,000 portfolio). I was running numbers to see if we are on track retirement wise (would like to have the opportunity to retire at 55) and trying to figure out how much we need to save (and make, return wise, in the fu...
by ljford7
Fri Mar 24, 2017 5:44 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?
Replies: 105
Views: 11338

Re: What inflation rate do you use for your planning?

The Boskin Commission, formally called the "Advisory Commission to Study the Consumer Price Index", was appointed by the United States Senate in 1995 to study possible bias in the computation of the Consumer Price Index (CPI), which is used to measure inflation in the United States. Its f...
by ljford7
Thu Oct 06, 2016 5:45 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: 30 yr mortgage, but pay like a 15 yr?
Replies: 55
Views: 12290

Re: 30 yr mortgage, but pay like a 15 yr?

If the rate is truly only .25% difference between the 15 year and 30 year, it would be very wise to take the 30-year just for the flexibility in the event something happens (and something will happen - ask Murphy).
by ljford7
Mon Oct 03, 2016 12:32 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Staying at same company for years and years….bad idea?
Replies: 41
Views: 6580

Re: Staying at same company for years and years….bad idea?

My replacement came in at quite a good bump in earnings compared to what I was making. To get the same skill set, the company had to pay more than it was paying me. This is the loyalty problem that employers have. Employers want their employees to be loyal, but then take advantage of them when they...
by ljford7
Sun Oct 02, 2016 8:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Good funds for Emergency Fund?
Replies: 21
Views: 3477

Re: Good funds for Emergency Fund?

We use VWUIX - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral for the majority of our emergency fund. We have check writing capabilities with it so it is a breeze to use (if needed). We also keep about 1 month in a savings account (Capital One 360) just for the easier access. VWUIX tends to retu...
by ljford7
Sat Oct 01, 2016 12:22 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Staying at same company for years and years….bad idea?
Replies: 41
Views: 6580

Re: Staying at same company for years and years….bad idea?

The grass is always greener….yep, that is my fear. Do not let this or fear deter you from a different job. Companies will always use the unknown (grass is always greener) against you in order to get you to stay longer. Look around at other people that have left, did they come back? That will answer...
by ljford7
Sun Sep 18, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: Personal Finance (Not Investing)
Topic: Why not take a loan for a car
Replies: 58
Views: 6749

Re: Why not take a loan for a car

I would take the loan purely based on having access to cash on hand versus tying it up in a vehicle. I recently bought a car - dealer offered a .9% on 5-year loan. I have the money in the bank to pay outright for cash, but when I can use their money for it at such a low rate, why not? It is going to...
by ljford7
Thu Dec 18, 2014 8:05 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Lockheed Martin Case Puts 401(k) Plans On Trial
Replies: 6
Views: 1856

Re: Lockheed Martin Case Puts 401(k) Plans On Trial

Have any of these cases been decided?

I am lucky that my employer has a good low cost 401K (uses Vanguard funds), but am curious what the courts decided.
by ljford7
Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:51 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Investing Emergency Funds?
Replies: 12
Views: 1957

Re: Investing Emergency Funds?

The thread below has some good discussion.

http://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtop ... 1&t=150947

I am moving mine to a couple of bond funds (VWITX and VMLTX). I am tired of seeing a large sum of money just sit there and make minimal returns.
by ljford7
Sat Dec 06, 2014 5:46 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Implications of Municipal Bond Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 928

Re: Tax Implications of Municipal Bond Investing

Thank you for your responses (I was concerned with buying a distribution)!
by ljford7
Sat Dec 06, 2014 10:27 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Tax Implications of Municipal Bond Investing
Replies: 5
Views: 928

Tax Implications of Municipal Bond Investing

Hi,

Quick question. I am going to invest $40,000 in VWITX and $25,000 in VMLTX. Would it be better to wait until the first of the year? I am concerned about any tax implications (I would have to pay state taxes).

Thanks!
by ljford7
Wed Jan 11, 2012 9:41 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: 2011 Returns Thread
Replies: 137
Views: 14062

Re: 2011 Returns Thread

starboard Vanguard appears to be using the IRR function. In excel use the same data set that you used for =XIRR and use the =IRR function instead (use different guesses if you get an error - I had to try a bunch to get it to work). You should get the same return Vanguard does. The below link has a ...
by ljford7
Fri Apr 22, 2011 6:10 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: S&P Stock Guide whereabouts?
Replies: 2
Views: 5138

Have you tried Google Books? I tend to receive good results finding older books there.
by ljford7
Fri Apr 22, 2011 6:00 pm
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding the Noise
Replies: 23
Views: 3368

Thank you for all of the thoughtful responses. Just to be clear, I haven't tried it and won't try it, but was intrigued by the concept. The authors of both of those books made it seem very easy, which I know isn't the case (if was easy, then why are they writing books about it instead of doing it an...
by ljford7
Fri Apr 22, 2011 9:49 am
Forum: Investing - Theory, News & General
Topic: Avoiding the Noise
Replies: 23
Views: 3368

Avoiding the Noise

I am a young investor, 28, and have been educating myself in investing and so far feel like I am on the right track. I have been trying to commit to the B&H investment philosophy (I am 100% committed to using low-cost index funds for my investing - would like to further my knowledge about ETFs t...
by ljford7
Thu Jul 08, 2010 2:01 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Advice for Under 30 Couple
Replies: 10
Views: 2183

[quote="FoolishJumper"][/quote] Thank you for your's and everyone else's very helpful advice. I have made an IPS based on a plan in the link you provided and I feel considerably more comfortable with the portfolio after putting the IPS together. One more question for you (if you don't mind...
by ljford7
Wed Jul 07, 2010 8:05 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Advice for Under 30 Couple
Replies: 10
Views: 2183

If I was in your case (and unable to sell the company stock), then I'd at least double my fixed income. Based on this, I'd recommend the following allocation: His/Her 401k 100% PIMCO Total Return (PTTRX) His/Her Roth IRA 100% Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTSMX) I am glad that I posted here, because...
by ljford7
Wed Jul 07, 2010 7:31 am
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Advice for Under 30 Couple
Replies: 10
Views: 2183

To whatever extent possible, you should try to reduce your company stock to no more than 5-10% of your total retirement portfolio. You probably need more in bonds. What industry is your company in? The company we work for is a large construction company that has been in business for over 150 years ...
by ljford7
Tue Jul 06, 2010 8:27 pm
Forum: Personal Investments
Topic: Retirement Portfolio Advice for Under 30 Couple
Replies: 10
Views: 2183

Retirement Portfolio Advice for Under 30 Couple

Emergency Fund: 6 months of expenses Debt: Mortage $208,000 @ 5.75% (Paying on a 15 year schedule) Student Loan $13,000 @ 2.625% (Will be paid off in approx 1 year) Tax Filing Status: Married filing Jointly Tax Rate: 25% Federal 4% State (Arizona) Age: 28, Wife 26 Desired Asset allocation: 90/10 or...